Baron Emerging Markets Strategy
Transcription
Baron Emerging Markets Strategy
June 30, 2016 Baron Emerging Markets Strategy Fact Sheet Baron Capital Management, Inc. and BAMCO, Inc., Registered Investment Advisers Baron Emerging Markets Strategy June 30, 2016 Investment Principles • Long-term perspective allows us to think like an owner of a business • Independent and exhaustive research is essential to understanding the long-term fundamental growth prospects of a business • We seek appropriately capitalized open-ended growth opportunities, exceptional leadership, and sustainable competitive advantages • Purchase price and risk management are integral to our investment process Baron Emerging Markets Strategy GICS Sector Breakdown¹² Portfolio Characteristics² Baron Emerging MSCI EM IMI Markets Strategy Growth Index # of Equity Securities / % of Net Assets 88/88.8% Turnover (3 Year Average) 24.67% Median Market Cap† $6.26 billion $0.92 billion Weighted Average Market Cap† $33.66 billion $47.66 billion EPS Growth (3-5 year forecast)† 17.9% 16.5% Price/Earnings Ratio (trailing 12-month)*† 18.9 17.4 Price/Book Ratio*† 2.5 2.5 Price/Sales Ratio*† 2.0 1.6 * Weighted Harmonic Average † Source: FactSet PA – Compustat, FactSet and BAMCO. Internal valuations metrics may differ. Net Performance Based Characteristics³ Std. Dev. (%) - Annualized Sharpe Ratio Alpha (%) - Annualized Beta R-Squared (%) Tracking Error (%) Information Ratio Upside Capture (%) Downside Capture (%) 3 Years 13.06 0.30 3.90 0.81 86.30 5.57 0.71 86.06 67.32 5 Years 15.64 0.23 5.31 0.81 87.08 6.54 0.88 94.21 71.44 Since Inception 15.11 0.23 4.44 0.79 85.63 6.75 0.71 89.91 70.69 3 Years 13.06 0.38 4.86 0.81 86.37 5.56 0.88 88.19 64.88 5 Years 15.64 0.27 5.92 0.81 87.17 6.51 0.97 95.46 70.15 Investment Strategy The Strategy invests mainly in non-U.S. companies of all sizes with significant growth potential. The majority of investments are in companies domiciled in developing countries, and the Strategy may invest up to 20% in companies in developed market and frontier countries. Diversified. Portfolio Manager Top 15 GICS Sub-Industry Breakdown¹² Michael Kass has been portfolio manager since inception. Michael joined Baron in 2007 and has 29 years of research experience. From 2003 to 2007, he was a managing principal of Artemis Advisors, which acquired the Artemis Funds, a long-short equity strategy he co-founded in 1998. From 1993 to 2003, he worked at ING Furman Selz as a director of proprietary trading and was named senior managing director and portfolio manager in 1996. From 1989 to 1993, he worked at Lazard Frères in investment banking. From 1987 to 1989, Michael was an analyst at Bear Stearns. Michael graduated summa cum laude from Tulane University with a B.A. in Economics in 1987. Top 10 Holdings² % of Net Assets Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Tencent Holdings, Ltd. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. SKS Microfinance Limited BM&FBOVESPA SA Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. TAL Education Group Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd. Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. Total Gross Performance Based Characteristics³ Std. Dev. (%) - Annualized Sharpe Ratio Alpha (%) - Annualized Beta R-Squared (%) Tracking Error (%) Information Ratio Upside Capture (%) Downside Capture (%) June 30, 2016 Since Inception 15.11 0.26 5.00 0.79 85.69 6.73 0.79 91.06 69.46 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 20.2 Colors of Sub-Industry bars correspond to sector chart above. In addition to the general stock market risk that securities may fluctuate in value, investments in developing countries may have increased risks due to a greater possibility of: settlement delays; currency and capital controls; interest rate sensitivity; corruption and crime; exchange rate volatility; and inflation or deflation. The Strategy invests in companies of all sizes, including small and medium sized companies whose securities may be thinly traded and more difficult to sell during market downturns. 1 - Industry sector or sub-industry group levels are provided from the Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”), developed and exclusively owned by MSCI, Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”). All GICS data is provided “as is” with no warranties. The Adviser may have reclassified/classified certain securities in or out of a sub-industry. Such reclassifications are not supported by S&P or MSCI. 2 - Sector and sub-industry weights, top ten holdings and portfolio facts and characteristics are based on a representative account. Such data may vary for each client in the Strategy due to asset size, market conditions, client guidelines and diversity of portfolio holdings. The representative account is the account in the Strategy that we believe most closely reflects the current portfolio management style for this Strategy. Representative account data is supplemental information. 3 - Source: FactSet SPAR. Except for Standard Deviation and Sharpe Ratio, the performance based characteristics above were calculated relative to the Strategy’s benchmark. Strategy Facts Inception Date Total Strategy Assets January 31, 2011 $2.05 billion Baron Emerging Markets Strategy June 30, 2016 Performance as of June 30, 2016 Country Breakdown² Developing China India South Africa Taiwan Korea Brazil Mexico Philippines Indonesia Russia Total Returns(%) 2nd Q 2016 Annualized Returns(%) Year to Date 1 Year Return + – Return + – Return + – Baron Emerging Markets Strategy (net) Baron Emerging Markets Strategy (gross) MSCI EM IMI Growth Index MSCI EM IMI Index eA Emerging Mkts All Cap Equity Universe Median 4.79 5.05 1.42 0.62 2.06 3.64 4.43 2.99 5.73 6.26 4.43 5.69 6.68 -6.16 -5.22 -10.55 -12.16 -8.54 1.84 0.58 -0.42 5.34 6.94 3.32 3 Years Return 3.99 4.95 0.03 -1.36 0.18 5 Years 10 Years Since Inception 1/31/2011 + – Return + – Return + – Return 4.92 6.31 4.77 3.62 4.22 -2.12 -3.59 -1.65 6.34 7.81 5.87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.47 4.03 -1.30 -2.76 -1.00 + – 5.33 6.79 5.03 % of % of Net Net Assets Assets 83.2 Developing (Cont'd) 1.0 20.4 Chile 0.8 14.3 Panama 0.7 8.6 Thailand 0.1 8.4 Peru 5.6 7.9 Developed 3.3 7.1 Hong Kong 0.8 6.4 Singapore 0.7 3.2 Australia 0.6 2.5 United States 0.2 1.8 United Kingdom Baron Emerging Markets Strategy has outperformed the MSCI EM IMI Growth Index 100% (Net Returns) and 100% (Gross Returns) of the time (since its inception and using rolling 3-year annualized returns). The blue shading represents Strategy (gross) outperformance vs. the corresponding benchmark. The yellow shading represents underperformance. Historical Performance(Calendar Year %)¹ Risk/Return Comparison³ Baron Emerging Markets Strategy (net) 2011 -15.29 2012 24.69 2013 16.08 Baron Emerging Markets Strategy (gross) MSCI EM IMI Growth Index MSCI EM IMI Index 2014 4.02 2015 -10.79 -15.27 24.75 16.47 5.05 -9.89 -17.38 20.72 0.10 -0.15 -10.51 -17.19 18.68 -2.20 -1.79 -13.86 Net of fees performance reflects expense reimbursements by the Adviser. Please see additional important performance disclosures on 7th page. 1 - The Strategy's inception date was 1/31/2011. The Strategy has a different inception date than its underlying portfolio which was 12/31/2010. Performance results for 2011 are not annualized. 2 - Country breakdown based on a representative account. 3 - Source: FactSet SPAR. Baron Emerging Markets Strategy June 30, 2016 Review and Outlook In the prior quarter, we remarked on the high inter-connectedness of global markets in a period of high leverage, fragile confidence, and increasingly unconventional policy intervention. The second quarter was marked, of course, by the surprise outcome of the British referendum regarding participation in the European Union. Both "Brexit" and a remarkably strong Yen captivated the attention of investors and risk managers worldwide. While Japan’s challenges are significant, we view them as fairly well understood and less threatening to global economies and markets. On the other hand, Brexit, rather than a local U.K. event, or even a pan-E.U. event, potentially challenges the political-economic-financial equilibrium we have come to take for granted over the past several decades. Since the 2009 financial crisis, political leaders, central bankers and policymakers have worked hard to maintain stability and sustain the existing equilibrium, but in recent years imbalances have been growing. Brexit should not have happened in the sense that it was not the logical or most economic outcome. Therefore, we must consider whether existing imbalances are pushing for an exit of the equilibrium, and if so, what will be the key changes in terms of long-term trends in globalization, E.U. political and financial integration, and security cooperation? How will the U.K.’s global trade relations proceed? Will Brexit increase or reduce the momentum of fringe anti-establishment movements in other E.U. countries? Material changes to these previous “knowns” would surely have global effects and could likely redefine opportunity and leadership throughout economies and markets. Such questions are complex and will not be answered overnight. Rather, several outcomes are possible, including the upside case of a “walking back” of Brexit, and we will be closely watching political and financial events unfold. As of now, we have done little in reaction given our comfort with our existing positioning, the substantial range of potential outcomes, and the fact that markets initially moved to discount an adverse scenario, particularly for the U.K. and Europe. Regardless of what scenario plays out, we think the surprise Brexit outcome raises the stakes for global leaders, and will likely move politicians and central bankers to prepare to act aggressively - to again seek to mute the impact of stress and sustain a stable equilibrium. As we have said in the past, we believe a global stress event is likely to provide political cover and provoke the Fed to join in more aggressive policy measures such as fiscal QE or “helicopter money.” Brexit may well be the catalyst we have been looking for, as we believe such measures would likely mark the end of the U.S. Dollar bull market, drive global investors to embrace rising inflation expectations, and stimulate global nominal GDP growth. In such an environment, we would expect emerging market equities to return to leadership amid a global advance. For now, we believe the leadership of the emerging markets during the quarter, including in the aftermath of Brexit, at a minimum confirms the rising likelihood of sustainable outperformance of the emerging markets, although we cannot guarantee that it will. Contribution to Return¹ By Sub-Industry Top Contributors/Detractors to Performance for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2016 Contributors Detractors • Smiles SA is a Brazilian loyalty program affiliated with GOL airlines. While Smiles has been posting super fundamentals since its IPO, its share price was under pressure in 2015 due to its affiliation with GOL which has been suffering from currency devaluation and recession in Brazil. With the situation improving at GOL in 2016, Smiles’ share price reacted strongly, more reflective of its fundamentals - solid share gains, revenue growth, high margins and returns, and strong cash generation. We retain our conviction in Smiles. • As India’s leading microfinance lending institution, SKS Microfinance Limited is experiencing significant growth owing to rising demand for consumer loans in rural India. Strong performance during Q2 can be attributed to stellar financial performance and encouraging management guidance for the current fiscal year. We believe SKS is well positioned to generate 35-40% loan growth for the next three to five years. We retain conviction due to its pan-India branch network and strong management team. • BM&FBOVESPA SA operates financial exchanges in Brazil. The stock rose during Q2 along with the broader Brazilian equity market and currency on investor optimism that political changes will lead to structural improvements in the Brazilian economy. Shares also benefited from shareholder approval of its acquisition of rival Cetip SA Mercados Organizados, creating a unified financial clearinghouse for the Brazilian capital markets. We maintain conviction because we expect the acquisition of Cetip will create significant shareholder value. • Shares of LG Chem Ltd. declined in Q2. The company is a leading global producer of petrochemicals. LG Chem also manufactures batteries for a wide range of applications including smartphones and electric cars. Shares fell due to growing investor concerns over weakening global demand for petrochemicals, leading to a decline in operating margins/profitability. We retain conviction in the company due to its cost competitiveness and leading battery technology. • Eclat Textile Co., Ltd. is a Taiwanese manufacturer of high performance yarn and garments. The stock fell due to increased inventory in the channel from department stores, sporting goods stores, and even some specialty retailers. Eclat is a beneficiary of the trend in apparel towards fast fashion and sportswear and favorable currency exchanges. While the recent trend has been disappointing, we believe the long-term trend remains intact and the stock price correction reflects current challenges. • Shares of Grupo Lala, S.A.B. de C.V. declined in Q2. The company is Mexico’s leading dairy conglomerate, with a panMexico supply chain and distribution network, that gives it a strong competitive advantage, in our view. The company recently announced a major U.S. acquisition. Investors did not view this deal favorably, causing the stock to correct. We retain conviction as we think Grupo Lala is well positioned to sustain double-digit earnings growth over the next two to three years owing to strong brand loyalty and improving operational efficiencies. By Holdings Top Contributors Average Weight(%) Contribution(%) Smiles SA 1.17 0.51 SKS Microfinance Limited 1.64 0.51 BM&FBOVESPA SA 1.56 0.46 TAL Education Group 1.98 0.42 Yandex N.V. 1.22 0.41 Top Detractors Average Weight(%) Contribution(%) LG Chem Ltd. 1.31 -0.33 Eclat Textile Co., Ltd. 0.75 -0.27 Grupo Lala, S.A.B. de C.V. 1.14 -0.25 Makalot Industrial Co., Ltd. 0.80 -0.23 Samsung Life Insurance Co. Ltd. 1.25 -0.23 1 - Source: FactSet PA. Based on the gross performance results of the representative account. Baron Emerging Markets Strategy June 30, 2016 Top 10 Holdings as of June 30, 2016 Company Investment Premise Company Investment Premise Samsung Electronics Co, Ltd (005930.KS) is a leading consumer electronics manufacturer and the largest handset maker in the world. It is also a key player in the semiconductor and display industries, providing consumer electronics inhouse as well as to third parties. Samsung benefits from tremendous scale, which gives it a cost advantage and allows it to outspend competitors in R&D. Its investment in innovation has accelerated new product introductions and improved Samsung’s global brand positioning. We think Samsung’s in-house capabilities with display, memory, and semiconductors are also a key differentiator, as vertical integration lowers Samsung’s product costs and gives it a time-to-market advantage. We believe the sustainability of these advantages is underestimated, and Samsung is undervalued relative to its earnings prospects. BM&FBOVESPA S.A. (BVMF3. BZ) operates financial exchanges in Brazil for trading equities, fixed income, derivatives, commodities, and currencies. BM&FBOVESPA is benefiting from the development of the Brazilian capital markets. We expect significant growth in trading volumes and revenue as more companies list securities on the company’s exchanges. Margins should expand due to operating leverage. BM&FBOVESPA has high barriers to entry due to its scale advantages, capital resources, and vertical integration into post-trading activities. We believe a potential acquisition of Cetip would be accretive and improve the company’s competitive position. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is the largest e-commerce company in the world. Alibaba owns and operates the two largest online shopping platforms in China, Taobao and Tmall. It also participates in the profits of Ant Financial, which owns Alipay, the largest 3rd party online payment provider in China. Alibaba is the most dominant e-commerce platform in the world. With over 400 million active buyers and over 10 million merchants, we believe Alibaba is poised to benefit disproportionately from the increased penetration of Internet, mobile, and e-commerce in China. It enjoys more than 50% market share of all e-commerce transactions in China, and we expect it to continue growing 20%+ for years to come. We also see significant positive optionality in Alibaba’s cloud computing, data management, and electronic payments platforms. Sinopharm Group Co., Ltd. (1099.HK) is the largest wholesaler and retailer of pharmaceutical and health care products and a leading supply chain service provider in China. As a core subsidiary of state-owned enterprise (SOE) China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation, we believe Sinopharm can benefit from the government’s plan to use the company as a test case in its ongoing effort to reform its bloated and debt-laden state-owned sector. As the government has said that it is hopeful that its test cases will advance broader SOE reform, we believe it is incentivized to succeed. We believe successful reform of Sinopharm will result in increased returns on equity, which in turn will lead to share price appreciation. Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700.HK) is a leading Internet service company, and the #1 game developer, in China. Its primary platforms include QQ for instant messaging (815 million media access units (MAUs)), WeChat for mobile messaging (500 million MAUs), and Qzone for social networking (654 million MAUs). We are bullish on Tencent’s ability to grow EPS at 25%+ over the longterm. Tencent benefits from virtuous network effects, and we think it has a long runway to monetize its large user base by pushing value-added services and advertising through its various platforms. Gaming comprises 57% of Tencent’s revenue, but advertising is its next major growth driver, with in-feed ads on WeChat launched in 2015. Tencent is also investing in online-to-offline services by leveraging its payment solutions across a number of industries including restaurants, ticketing, and travel. TAL Education Group (XRS) is a leading K-12 after school tutoring provider in China that currently operates 300+ learning centers in 25 cities. TAL Education has been benefiting from positive secular trends in China, including growing competition to get into top schools and rising disposable incomes. TAL’s growth prospects are also fueled by its focus on the K-12 market, a highly fragmented $50 billion market in which the top three providers have less than 3.5% market share. Its focus on top academic students also protects its high-end brand and allows it to charge a premium for its services. TAL operates an asset-light and cash generative business model, and we believe it can grow EPS at 25%+ for years to come. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) is the world’s largest independent semiconductor foundry, manufacturing chips on behalf of other companies. Given its size, the company benefits from economies of scale and a superior cost structure. It also deploys new technology faster than the competition, allowing it to enjoy higher average sales prices and gross margins. We believe Taiwan Semiconductor is poised to gain market share, driven by increased dominance in advanced nodes (20 nanometers and 16 nanometers), while also maintaining superior profitability. Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd. (4904.TT) is Taiwan’s third largest telecom provider. The company offers pre-paid and post-paid mobile services to approximately 7.3 million subscribers. We believe Far EastTone is well positioned to benefit from the significant increase in mobile data usage as more subscribers adopt smartphones. The deployment of 4G services should further enhance topline growth and profitability. SKS Microfinance LTD (SKSM.IN) is India’s leading microfinance lending institution (MFI). The company has a pan-India network with a customer base of over 4.5mm borrowers. Assets under management are about $925mm. SKS is headquartered in Hyderabad, India. We expect assets under management to double in two to three years, creating strong earnings growth and book value accretion. Longer-term, SKS is a potential acquisition target as larger banks look to gain scale in the MF industry. Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd. (SNH.GR) is a leading vertically integrated manufacturer and retailer of household goods in Europe. The company also has a presence in South Africa through its majority owned subsidiaries, JD Group and Pepkor. We think Steinhoff is well positioned to benefit from the consolidation of the highly fragmented European household goods market. The company has a global logistics network, in-house manufacturing, and attractive sourcing agreements with third party vendors. Steinhoff can offer quality products at competitive prices and gain market share from sub-scale players. The company has an entrepreneurial management team with significant ownership (>30% stake) that has successfully expanded operations into Europe (now majority of sales) from modest beginnings in South Africa. Baron Emerging Markets Strategy June 30, 2016 For strategy reporting purposes, the Firm is defined as all accounts managed by Baron Capital Management, Inc. ("BCM") and BAMCO, Inc. ("BAMCO"), registered investment advisers wholly owned by Baron Capital Group, Inc. As of 6/30/2016, total Firm assets under management are approximately $20.7 billion. The strategy is a time-weighted, total-return composite of all accounts managed using our standard investment process. Accounts in the strategy are market-value weighted and are included on the first day of the month following one full month under management. Gross performance figures do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in the management of the investment advisory account. Actual client returns will be reduced by the advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in the management of the investment advisory account. A full description of investment advisory fees is supplied in the Firm’s Form ADV Part 2A. Valuations and returns are computed and stated in U.S. dollars. Performance figures reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. The Strategy is currently composed of one mutual fund managed by BAMCO. The Strategy invests mainly in non-U.S. companies of all sizes. The majority of investments are in companies domiciled in developing countries. The Strategy may invest up to 20% in companies in developed and frontier countries.BAMCO and BCM claim compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). To receive a complete list and description of the Firm’s strategies or a GIPS-compliant presentation please contact us at 1-800-99BARON. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Strategy may not achieve its objectives. Portfolio holdings may change over time. The Strategy’s historical performance was impacted by gains from IPOs and/or secondary offerings, and there is no guarantee that these results can be repeated or that the Strategy’s level of participation in IPOs and secondary offerings will be the same in the future. Definitions: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) IMI Index Net USD and the MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) IMI Growth Index Net USD are free float-adjusted market capitalization unmanaged indexes designed to measure equity market performance of large-, mid- and small-cap securities in the emerging markets. The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) IMI Growth Index Net USD screens for growth-style securities. The indexes and the Strategy include reinvestment of dividends, net of withholding taxes, which positively impacts the performance results. As of 6/30/2016, the Strategy was in the eVestment Alliance (“eA”) US Emerging Markets All Cap Equity Universe. The eA Universe consisted of 225, 225, 225, 208, 172 and 156 products, respectively, for the 3-months, YTD, 1-, 3-, 5-year, and since inception periods. The eA Universe Median returns represent the annualized gross of fee performance of the median manager within the indicated universe and is subject to change. Standard Deviation (Std. Dev.): measures the degree to which the Strategy’s performance has varied from its average performance over a particular time period. The greater the standard deviation, the greater the Strategy’s volatility (risk). Sharpe Ratio: is a risk-adjusted performance statistic that measures reward per unit of risk. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the Strategy’s risk adjusted performance. Alpha: measures the difference between the Strategy’s actual returns and its expected performance, given its level of risk as measured by beta. Beta: measures the Strategy’s sensitivity to market movements. The beta of the market is 1.00 by definition. R-Squared: measures how closely the Strategy’s performance correlates to the performance of the benchmark index, and thus is a measurement of what portion of its performance can be explained by the performance of the index. Values for R-Squared range from 0 to 100, where 0 indicates no correlation and 100 indicates perfect correlation. Tracking Error: measures how closely the Strategy’s return follows the benchmark index returns. It is calculated as the annualized standard deviation of the difference between the Strategy and the index returns. Information Ratio: measures the excess return of the Strategy divided by the amount of risk the Strategy takes relative to the benchmark index. The higher the information ratio, the higher the excess return expected of the Strategy, given the amount of risk involved. Upside Capture: explains how well the Strategy performs in time periods where the benchmark’s returns are greater than zero. Downside Capture: explains how well the Strategy performs in time periods where the benchmark’s returns are less than zero. EPS Growth Rate (3-5 year forecast): indicates the long-term forecasted EPS growth of the companies in the representative account, calculated using the weighted average of the available 3-to-5 year forecasted growth rates for each of the stocks in the representative account provided by FactSet Estimates. The EPS Growth rate does not forecast the Strategy’s performance. Price/Earnings Ratio (trailing 12-months): is a valuation ratio of a company’s current share price compared to its actual earnings per share over the last twelve months. Price/Book Ratio: is a ratio used to compare a company’s stock price to its tangible assets, and it is calculated by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter’s book value per share. Price/Sales Ratio: is a valuation ratio of a stock’s price relative to its past performance. It represents the amount an investor is willing to pay for a dollar generated from a particular company’s operations. Price/ Sales is calculated by dividing a stock’s current price by its revenue per share for the last 12 months. Historical portfolio characteristics are provided by Compustat and FactSet Fundamentals. Weighted Harmonic Average: is a calculation that reduces the impact of extreme observations on the aggregate calculation by weighting them based on their size in the representative account. This information does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities by anyone in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful under the laws of that jurisdiction to make such offer or solicitation. This information is only for the intended recipient and may not be distributed to any third party. Additional information is available from BAMCO, Inc. or Baron Capital Management, Inc. at 767 Fifth Avenue, 49th Floor, New York, NY 10153, or call 1-800-99BARON. We invest in people — not just buildings Long-Term Investors • Research Driven W W W.BARONFUNDS.COM W W W.BARONCAPITALMANAGEMENT.COM
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