NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 1
Transcription
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 1
NATO TRANSFORMATION FRAMEWORK for FUTURE ALLIANCE OPERATIONS (FFAO) NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE INTRODUCTION The Aim of FFAO is to: • • Provide Strategic Commanders’ best Military Advice on how the Alliance might transform over the next 15 years. Propose abilities that NATO may need to be successful in the future security environment of 2030 and beyond. NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE CONTENT What is FFAO? Part 1. Explain the background behind 10 identified Instability Situations that could face NATO over the next 15 years. Part 2. NATO’s Strategic Military Perspectives. Part 3. What are the Military NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary/ffao Implications for NATO? Part 1: BACKGROUND • Long-Term Military Transformation (LTMT) • Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) • Framework for Future Alliance Operations act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary/ffao NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 1: THE CRYSTAL BALL What does the future hold? blog.buddybet.com NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 1: THE CRYSTAL BALL www.telegraph.com Thebreakthrough.org www.gamespot.com NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE www.currentevents.poland www.strainint.nl Part1: SFA – 15 TRENDS Natural Disasters NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Environmental / Climate Change Part 1: INSTABILITY SITUATIONS There are 10: • • • • • • • • • • Access to and use of the Global Commons Challenged Conflict in the Euro-Atlantic Region Disruptive Impact of Mass Migration High-Impact Cyber Threat Large-Scale Disaster Mega-city Turmoil Non-State Actors Rival State Space Capability Disruption State-versus-State Conflict Weapons of Mass Destruction/Effect/Use/Threat NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE www.habitat-utah.org Part 1: THINKING EXAMPLES Access and Use of Global Commons Challenged: • • • • • • • Context Main Contributing Trends Who? Why? How (Ways and Means) Where? What is New in 2030? www.saladehistoria.com www.space.com NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 1: THINKING EXAMPLES Space Capability Disruption: • • • • • • • Context Main Contributing Trends Who? Why? How (Ways and Means) Where? What is New in 2030? go.galegroup.com NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 2 STRATEGIC MILITARY PERSPECTIVES Five Focus Areas: • • • • • Operational Agility Security Networking Shared Resilience Strategic Awareness Strategic Communications NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 2: OPERATIONAL AGILITY ‘The ability to respond effectively to dynamic, complex and Uncertain Operational Challenges with appropriate, flexible and timely responses’ • • • • Requires Innovative and Creative Leaders Needs Flexible, Tailorable, Robust and Interoperable Forces An Ability to Assemble and Train Diverse Multinational Units Importance of Education and Training OUTCOME - focus Defence Planning on the development of flexible units and creative leaders comfortable in situations characterised by ambiguity, complexity and rapid change NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 2: SECURITY NETWORKING ‘Act in concert with state and non-state actors, to address future security threats holistically to influence the security environment through continuous interaction via physical and virtual presence’ • • • Merges, coordinates and builds upon ongoing NATO activities. Pre-crisis relationship building with a range of partners. Includes a variety of services – police and medical training, electrical power, water or governing capacities. OUTCOME – The Alliance will better contribute to coordinating and merging efforts e.g. defence capacity building, security force assistance, education, training, exercising and Strategic Communication. NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 2: SHARED RESILIENCE ‘Having sufficient capacity across the defence and security community to provide a shared ability to endure adversity over time and recover quickly from strategic shocks or operational setbacks’ • • • • Complex environments: anti-access and area denial capabilities (A2AD). Threat to Core Tasks less foreseeable - surprise, strategic shock. Encompasses structures, systems and processes. Sustainment: civilian and military authorities’ coordination. OUTCOME – More than just Redundancy in critical systems, it requires an adaptive mindset to overcome changing circumstances to be delivered by education, training and exercising. NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 2: STRATEGIC AWARENESS ‘An opportunity to increase Alliance cohesion through a shared assessment of current and future challenges and to allow timely alignment of military planning with political intent’ • • • Continuous monitoring of the sources of instability – data rich. Early recognition of impending issues. Continued focus on intelligence. OUTCOME – Leverage new and emerging technologies to enhance data analysis and then blend with traditional intelligence in a Combined NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre to anticipate crises and expand the decision time for Senior Leaders. NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 2: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION ‘To place information and communication at the heart of all levels of policy, planning and implementation and ensuring that they are a fully integrated part of the overall effort’ • • Coordinated use Public Diplomacy, Military Public Affairs, Information Operations and Psychological Operations. Identify and understand audiences in traditional and social media. OUTCOME - Proactively influence the security environment through a coordinated narrative, combined with the continuous analysis of media channels to adapt and gain messaging initiative. NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 3 MILITARY IMPLICATIONS – not defined requirements, nor are they expressed as required capabilities: efficiencies in scale, effects, performance and cost. • • • • • • • Prepare Project Engage Sustain Command and Control (C2) Protect Inform NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 3 - PREPARE • • • • • • • Cooperation with Security Partners Comprehensive Approach Scalable and Modular Creative use of Human Resources Training and Exercises Best Practices Mission Command NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE • • • • • • Leader Development Human Factors Urban Operations Training Integrated Cyber Operations ROE / Military Authorities Acquisitions and Procurement Part 3: PROJECT • • • • Mounting Deployment and Redeployment Reception and Staging Basing NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 3 : ENGAGE • Joint Manoeuvre • • Joint Fires • • Enhanced Manoeuvrability, Cyber Manoeuvrability, Rapid Response Enhanced Firepower, Kinetic Operations, Unmanned and Autonomous Systems www.rcaf-arc.forces.gc.ca Joint Influence • Cyber Influence, Cyberspace Engagement, Comprehensive Approach ulifelinecounselorconversations.com NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 3: SUSTAIN • • • • • Innovative Supply and Minimised Logistic Footprint In Theatre Movement and Transportation Standardisation Diversification and Impact of Logistics Future Force Sustainment NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE • • • • Sea Basing and Resupply from the Sea Military Engineering Networked Sustainable Medical Support Medical Support in Geographically Dispersed Locations Part 3: Command and Control • • • • • • Future C2 Systems Future Decision Making Partner Integration and C2 Reduced Organisational Footprint Integrated C2 Communications NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE www.combuilder.com Part 3: PROTECT • • • • • • • • Counter Area Denial Lines of Communication Expeditionary Force Protection and Base Defence Extended Protection Unmanned Systems Swarm Techniques Protection from Surface and Subsurface Threats Integrated Air and Missile Defence NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE • • • • • • Protection from GBAD and IAD Defence against Guided Rocket Artillery Mortars and Missiles Ballistic Missile Defence Defence from Space Weapons Protection from WMD/E Environmental and Hazzard Protection Part 3: INFORM • • • Collection Analysis Broad Mapping psichelink.it/2016/01/0 www.institute-for-competitive-intelligence.com NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE SUMMARY FFAO Analysing, Thinking, Recognising, Adapting and Implementing Change to Meet the Range of Contemporary and Future Security Challenges www.act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary/ffao-2015.pdf NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE NATO TRANSFORMATION FRAMEWORK for FUTURE ALLIANCE OPERATIONS (FFAO) NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE