gluten-free market explosion will the boom continue

Transcription

GLUTEN-FREE MARKET EXPLOSION – WILL THE
BOOM CONTINUE INDEFINITELY?
CARL-FILIP CLAUSSON
RESEARCH ANALYST
FREE FROM FOOD EXPO, JUNE 2015, BARCELONA
EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
GLOBAL INSIGHT
BAKERY
PASTA
BABY FOOD
READY MEALS
OUTLOOK
QUESTIONS
COMPANY INTRODUCTION
© Euromonitor International
3
GLOBAL INSIGHT
BAKERY
PASTA
BABY FOOD
READY MEALS
OUTLOOK
QUESTIONS
5
GLOBAL INSIGHT
Euromonitor International Gluten-Free Definitions
INCLUDED
EXCLUDED
Source: Catelli Foods Corp
Source: HiPP UK Ltd
Specially manufactured foods which are
labelled as gluten-free, usually available to
replace flour, bread, biscuits and pasta
Products which are naturally free
from gluten are excluded
6
GLOBAL INSIGHT
Global Market Size of Gluten-free Food
Food intolerance
2014 % of global sales
Lactose-free
Gluten-free
Diabetic food
66%
26%
8%
Packaged food
Food intolerance
Gluten-free
0.5%
0.1%
7
GLOBAL INSIGHT
Gluten-free Market Size for Europe
Europe Figure
2014, EUR million
1,113.1
Main markets
US
Italy
UK
Australia
Germany
Russia
France
Sweden
Spain
Brazil
24%
13%
9%
9%
8%
7%
3%
3%
2%
2%
8
GLOBAL INSIGHT
Global Gluten-free Per Capita Sales
Other categories
2014 per capita EUR
Packaged food
Food intolerance
Lactose-free
Gluten-free
Diabetic food
238
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
9
GLOBAL INSIGHT
Gluten-free Per Capita Sales for Europe
Europe Figure
2014, EUR million
1.9
Global ranking
2014 per capita EUR
Norway
Iceland
Australia
Finland
New Zealand
Sweden
Italy
Austria
Switzerland
UK
.....
US
Russia
8.8
8.2
6.9
6.8
5.1
5.0
3.9
3.9
2.7
2.7
.....
1.4
0.9
10
GLOBAL INSIGHT
EUR mn (current fixed exchange rates)
Performance of the Top Gluten-free Brands Globally
Dr Schär (Dr Schär AG)
200
Udi's (Smart Balance Inc)
Private Label
150
Semper (Hero AG)
Nestlé Baby (Nestlé SA)
100
Glutino (Smart Balance Inc)
Mrs Crimble's (Mrs Crimble's)
Glutano (Dr Schär AG)
50
Glutafin (Dr Schär AG)
0
2010
Helga's (Goodman Fielder Ltd)
2011
2012
2013
2014
11
GLOBAL INSIGHT
Company Market Shares in Major Gluten-free Markets
United States
Russia
Top-3 Companies
Top-3 Companies
2014 Retail Value RSP, % breakdown
Smart Balance Inc
Enjoy Life Foods LLC
Food Directions Inc
42
3
3
Hero Group GmbH
Danone Groupe
Sady Pridonya OAO NPG
Italy
Germany
Top-3 Companies
Top-3 Companies
Dr Schär AG/SpA
Malgara Chiari & Forti SpA
Danone Groupe
54
9
8
Dr Schär AG
Haus Rabenhorst GmbH
Laurens Spethmann AG
50
11
7
46
13
9
12
GLOBAL INSIGHT
Target Audience Stretches Beyond Coeliac Sufferers
Sensitive
to gluten
Coeliac
disease
Gluten-free
diet
considered
as healthier
Feeling
more
energetic
Weight
management
13
GLOBAL INSIGHT
But Nutritional Content Is Under Scrutiny
Nutritional content
higher in fat
Nutritional content
higher in sugar
Unintended
consequences such as
potential
compensation with a
high GI food diet
14
GLOBAL INSIGHT
EUR mn (constant fixed exchange rates)
Global Retail Sales of Gluten-free by Product, 2009-2019
3000
2014
share
2500
8%
14%
2000
14%
1500
1000
64%
500
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Bakery Products
Pasta
Baby Food
Ready Meals
GLOBAL INSIGHT
BAKERY
PASTA
BABY FOOD
READY MEALS
OUTLOOK
QUESTIONS
16
BAKERY
Global Gluten-free Bakery Forecast Growth
Main markets
US
UK
Australia
Italy
Germany
France
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Austria
15%
7%
7%
7%
5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
17
BAKERY
Global Bread Forecast Growth
Main markets
US
Brazil
China
Mexico
Japan
France
Italy
Germany
UK
Turkey
16%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
18
BAKERY
New Product Development in Gluten-free Bakery
Origin: Australia
USP: Cross-intolerance (gluten free, wheat free and dairy free)
Success: Very successful (boosted with bakery shelf space and
similarity in texture to regular bread)
Source: Genius Foods Ltd
Origin: Canada
USP: Improved taste, wide variety, leading bakery producer
Success: Great success (placed in bakery section, similar in taste in
texture to regular bread, matches well with demand)
Source: George Weston Ltd
Origin: Argentina
USP: Low calories, healthy image
Success: Good success (mainly due to the healthy image and big
marketing campaign and not because of gluten
awareness)
Source: Molinos Río de la Plata SA
19
BAKERY
New Product Development in Gluten-free Bakery
Origin: United Kingdom
USP: Well-known brand, low unit price, fortified
Success: Good success (good taste and texture, launched on a
large and mature market, good social media exposure)
Source: Nestlé UK Ltd
Origin: United States
USP: Convenient, low unit price
Success: Good success (launched on a big and growing market,
one of the biggest producers, good taste and texture)
Source: General Mills Inc
GLOBAL INSIGHT
BAKERY
PASTA
BABY FOOD
READY MEALS
OUTLOOK
QUESTIONS
21
PASTA
Global Gluten-free Pasta Forecast Growth
Main markets
Italy
Germany
US
Venezuela
Australia
UK
Turkey
Canada
Spain
France
29%
14%
12%
12%
8%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
22
PASTA
New Product Development in Gluten-free Pasta
Origin: United States
USP: Well-known brand, low unit price
Success: Very successful (good taste and texture and a low unit
price on a big market where mainly niche players have
reigned before, better shelf exposure)
Source: Barilla America Inc
Origin: South Korea
USP: Convenient, promoted with digestive health
Success: Limited success (low awareness of gluten-free products,
but the use of rice was appealing)
Source: Ourhome Inc
Origin: Columbia
USP: Well-known brand, made with corn
Success: No success (very low awareness of gluten-free products,
premium unit price)
Source: Harinera Del Valle SA
GLOBAL INSIGHT
BAKERY
PASTA
BABY FOOD
READY MEALS
OUTLOOK
QUESTIONS
24
BABY FOOD
Global Gluten-free Baby Food Forecast Growth
Main markets
Russia
Brazil
Spain
Italy
Hungary
Portugal
Ukraine
Germany
Israel
Belarus
41%
18%
10%
9%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
25
BABY FOOD
New Product Development in Gluten-free Baby Food
Origin: Russia
USP: Known brand, natural ingredients
Success: Limited success (high unit price, limited marketing, fairly
small brand)
Source: HiPP Russ OOO
GLOBAL INSIGHT
BAKERY
PASTA
BABY FOOD
READY MEALS
OUTLOOK
QUESTIONS
27
READY MEALS
Global Gluten-free Ready Meals Forecast Growth
Main markets
US
UK
Norway
Italy
77%
10%
9%
2%
28
READY MEALS
New Product Development in Gluten-free Ready Meals
Origin: Norway
USP: Well-known brand, low unit price
Success: Good success (leading pizza manufacturer, launched by
consumer request, good taste and texture, low unit price,
wide distribution)
Source: Orkla Foods Norge AS
GLOBAL INSIGHT
BAKERY
PASTA
BABY FOOD
READY MEALS
OUTLOOK
QUESTIONS
30
OUTLOOK
Supergrains Drive Gluten-free Innovation
Amaranth
High protein
and glutenfree
Gluten and
wheat free
Teff
Quinoa
Millet
Kamut
Buckwheat*
High fibre
and
gluten-free
Barley
Polenta
(cornmeal)
Oats*
* Contamination risk
Wheat free
but contain
gluten
31
OUTLOOK
Will the Gluten-free Boom Continue Indefinitely?
Opportunities
 Standards reinforce consumer trust
 Largest players get involved
 Unit prices will decline
 Untapped dietary consumer base
 Many countries still lack these products
 Expected increase in the forecast
 Number of coeliac diagnoses will
increase
 Diagnosis will be cheaper and faster
 A large portion of the global population
run the risk of becoming intolerant to
gluten (50% in Australia, 30% in the US)
Threats





Medical advancements
Vaccination (e.g. Nexvax2)
High levels of sugar and fat
Taste and texture
New diets
32
OUTLOOK
Global Gluten-free Forecast Growth
Main markets
% of global forecasted
sales actuals
US
36%
Australia 19%
France
9%
Italy
6%
Norway
5%
Russia
3%
Germany
3%
Netherlands 2%
UK
2%
Finland
2%
Food Intolerance The Second Fastest Growing Food Category Globally
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
Carl-Filip Clausson
carl-filip.clausson@euromonitor.lt
CONNECT WITH US!
blog.euromonitor.com
@Euromonitor
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gluten-free market explosion will the boom continue

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