Chattanooga Volkswagen Plant Freight Impact Study

Transcription

Chattanooga Volkswagen Plant Freight Impact
Study
final
line 1
report
report
prepared
for for
prepared
Tennessee
Department of Transportation
Client Name
and
prepared by
Chattanooga-Hamilton
County/North Georgia Transportation Planning
Organization
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
with
prepared by
Subcontractor Names (if applicable)
December 2009
www.camsys.com
final report
Chattanooga Volkswagen Plant Freight
Impact Study
prepared for
Tennessee Department of Transportation
and
Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization
prepared by
730 Peachtree Street, Suite 1050
Atlanta, Georgia 30308
December 2009
Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................................
1-1
2.0 Existing Conditions .......................................................................................................
2.1 Description of Study Area ..................................................................................
2.2 Current Land Use ................................................................................................
2.3 Truck and Automobile Volumes .......................................................................
2.4 Truck and Automobile Volume Forecasts........................................................
2.5 Current Congestion Levels in the Study Area .................................................
2.6 Forecasted Congestion Levels in the Study Area ............................................
2.7 Rail Activity in the Study Area ..........................................................................
2.8 Planned Projects in the Study Area ...................................................................
2-1
2-1
2-3
2-5
2-20
2-21
2-23
2-26
2-29
3.0 VW Plant Freight Forecast ........................................................................................... 3-1
3.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................
3-1
3.2 Outgoing Automobile Shipments......................................................................
3-1
3.3 Incoming Supply Shipments ..............................................................................
3-4
3.4 Empty Truck Trips ............................................................................................... 3-10
3.5 Rail Car Movements ............................................................................................ 3-12
3.6 Overall Model Results ......................................................................................... 3-12
4.0 Key Findings and Recommendations ........................................................................
4-1
Appendix A
Assumptions and Sources for VW Freight Impact Model
7975-110
i
List of Tables
2.1
Study Area Corridors ....................................................................................................
2-1
2.2
Chattanooga TPO Count Data .....................................................................................
2-6
2.3
VW Traffic Impact Analysis Counts at Key Intersections ........................................
2-9
2.4
Bonny Oaks Drive Truck Count Data at South Entrance to Enterprise South ...... 2-10
2.5
Comparison of Travel Demand Model Output to LRTP Counts (All Vehicles) ... 2-14
2.6
Comparison of Travel Demand Model Output to LRTP Counts (Trucks Only) .. 2-15
2.7
Estimating Truck Traffic Using Model Growth Rates .............................................. 2-20
2.8
Future Volume to Capacity Ratios and Level of Service .......................................... 2-24
2.9
Railroad Crossings in the Study Area ......................................................................... 2-28
2.10 Planned Road Improvements in the VW Study Area ............................................... 2-31
3.1
Number of VW Dealerships by State ..........................................................................
3-3
3.2
Commodity Inputs Required for Automobile Production ......................................
3-5
3.3
Commodity Conversion Factors ..................................................................................
3-6
3.4
Change in Traffic on Local Roads for Empty Truck Moves..................................... 3-12
3.5
Total Daily Truck and Rail Traffic Generated by the VW Plant.............................. 3-13
4.1
Strategies and Recommendations for Managing Freight Impact of VW Plant .....
4-4
A.1 Assumptions and Sources for VW Freight Impact Model .......................................
A-1
iii
List of Figures
2.1
Map of Enterprise South and Surrounding Travel Area .........................................
2-2
2.2
Current Land Uses in the Three-Mile Radius Surrounding the Study Area ........
2-4
2.3
Chattanooga TPO Count Data ....................................................................................
2-7
2.4
Count Locations from VW Traffic Impact Analysis .................................................
2-8
2.5
Travel Demand Model Estimated Traffic Flows ......................................................
2-12
2.6
Total Daily Traffic .........................................................................................................
2-16
2.7
Total Daily Truck Traffic ..............................................................................................
2-17
2.8
Travel Demand Model Current and Forecast Traffic Volumes ..............................
2-19
2.9
Level of service on Key Regional Corridors ..............................................................
2-22
2.10 Future Level of service on Key Regional Corridors .................................................
2-25
2.11 Railroads in the Study Area.........................................................................................
2-27
2.12 Planned Road Improvements in the Chattanooga TPO Region.............................
2-30
3.1
Locations of VW Supplier Businesses ........................................................................
3-9
3.2
Traffic Analysis Zones with More than 1,000 Manufacturing Employees ...........
3-11
v
1.0 Introduction
Volkswagen of America (VW) recently announced that it will build a new automobile
production plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The plant is scheduled to begin operations
in 2011 and will produce a new mid-sized sedan designed for the American market.
Initial production is forecast at 114,000 cars annually, with a goal of producing 173,000
units per year by 2014. The facility will directly employ about 2,000 people and is
expected to create 9,500 jobs over the life of the project. Volkswagen is investing $1 billion
in the local economy and overall, the project is expected to generate $12 billion in income
growth through increased economic activity associated with the plant.
Since the new Volkswagen facility will generate significant volumes of freight traffic, the
Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) commissioned this study at the request
of the Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning
Organization (TPO) to evaluate the impact that freight movements originating at the plant
will have on the travel area in the region. This report documents the results of the study
and outlines some recommended infrastructure improvements to accommodate the
anticipated freight demand associated with the VW plant.
The remainder of this document is organized as follows:
•
Section 2.0 describes the existing conditions in the study area using information from
the Chattanooga regional travel demand model, classification count data, and other
available sources in the study area;
•
Section 3.0 documents the methodology used to estimate future truck and rail
volumes generated by the VW plant and describes the forecast for freight volumes on
the local infrastructure; and
•
Section 4.0 contains recommendations to effectively plan for the anticipated increase
in freight volumes.
1-1
2.0 Existing Conditions
2.1 Description of Study Area
This VW plant is located at Enterprise South, an industrial park 12 miles northeast of
downtown Chattanooga in Tennessee. This area and the associated travel corridors are
shown below in Figure 2.1. The key corridors for this study are provided in Table 2.1.
Planned projects in the study area are described in Section 2.8 of this report. Enterprise
South is a former Army munitions plant that has been converted for industrial use. The
site contains 1,350 developable acres surrounded by a 2,800-acre buffer to the east and a
128-acre buffer to the west. It lies directly adjacent to Interstate 75 to the southeast and
State Highway 58 to the northwest. This gives it ready access to several other highway
corridors in the region, including State Highway 60, APD-40, U.S. 11, and U.S. 64/74. The
site also is served by two Class I railroads1 – Norfolk Southern (NS) and CSX
Transportation (CSXT).
Table 2.1
Study Area Corridors
Hamilton County
Bradley County
Interstate 75
Interstate 75
SR 58 North of Enterprise South
U.S. 11 from APD-40 to I-75 Exit 11
Bonny Oaks Drive
Hickory Valley Boulevard
1
Class I railroads are the major freight railroads that control the transcontinental freight rail network.
2-1
Figure 2.1 Map of Enterprise South and Surrounding Travel Area
2-2
2.2 Current Land Use
Figure 2.2 presents the land uses for all parcels within a three-mile radius of Enterprise
South. As the map demonstrates, the site is surrounded mostly by a residential
development pattern. There are some commercial and industrial areas to the west and
south of the site. Other major land uses include agricultural (primarily to the east) and
recreational (mostly clustered around Chickamauga Lake). This presents a potential
challenge for the VW site in that much of the truck and rail traffic generated at the site has
the potential for operating on or near land uses that have not been designed with
considerations for heavy truck or rail operational characteristics. This implies that
improvement strategies should be developed that route truck and rail traffic away from
these non-freight land uses to the greatest extent possible.
2-3
Figure 2.2 Current Land Uses in the Three-Mile Radius Surrounding
the Study Area
2008
Source: Chattanooga-Hamilton County Regional Planning Agency.
2-4
2.3 Truck and Automobile Volumes
Chattanooga TPO Classification Count Data
The Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization
(TPO) recently collected traffic counts in the area as part of the 2035 Long-Range
Transportation Plan (LRTP) update. This data includes 2008 classification counts at
several key locations throughout Chattanooga, including 16 in the VW study area (see
Table 2.2 and Figure 2.3). Each location was counted over a 24-hour period. Nonexpressway locations used standard tube counts. Freeway locations such as I-75 and SR
153 were counted using a radar gun. Vehicles were classified based on length with
vehicles less than 26 feet considered to be passenger cars, vehicles between 26 and 35 feet
considered to be medium trucks and buses, and vehicles over 35 feet considered to be
large trucks. It should be noted that this vehicle classification scheme does not neatly
match with the TDOT classification scheme which is the standard FHWA classification
scheme based on number of axles and number of units. However, it can be assumed that
the “large trucks” category is roughly equivalent to combined FHWA vehicle classes 8
and 9. These two vehicle classes are the combination trucks using the FHWA
classification scheme.
Interstate 75 north of Exits 1 and 3 exhibit the highest traffic volumes according to these
data with over 90,000 vehicles per day. Interstate 75 North of Shallowford Road has the
highest truck count location with over 25,000 trucks per day. Interstate 75 also has the
highest percentage of trucks in the study area ranging from 17 percent to 33 percent
depending on the location.
SR 153 has a surprisingly high total volume with over 70,000 vehicles per day. The truck
portion of this traffic is relatively low with only 6,333 (8 percent) and 4,327 (6 percent)
trucks recorded at the two locations on SR 153.
2-5
Table 2.2
Chattanooga TPO Count Data
2008
Total
Traffic
Medium
Trucks
Large Trucks
Location
Percent
Trucks
I-75 North of Exit 3
96,809
2,018
14,350
17%
92,650
2,395
21,914
26%
SR 153 North of Bonny Oaks Drive
82,234
3,060
3,273
8%
I-75 North of Shallowford Road
77,720
12,991
12,612
33%
SR 153 North of Shallowford Road
74,079
904
3,423
6%
I-75 North of Bonny Oaks Drive
68,653
8,205
14,372
33%
50,041
1,601
10,931
25%
Lee Highway East of I-75
28,457
940
680
6%
SR 58 South of Hickory Valley Road
27,426
2,612
580
12%
Lee Highway North of E. Brainerd Road
25,577
884
451
5%
Lee Highway West of Ooltewah Ringgold
Road
19,740
677
389
5%
Bonny Oaks Drive West of Hickory Valley
17,174
1,725
589
13%
Lee Highway South of Shallowford Road
14,152
441
122
4%
Hickory Valley Road South of Bonny Oaks
Drive
6,801
946
28
14%
Hickory Valley Road North of Shallowford
Road
6,393
168
29
3%
Hickory Valley Road North of Lee
Highway
4,931
145
18
3%
Source: Chattanooga-Hamilton County-North Georgia TPO.
2-6
Figure 2.3 Chattanooga TPO Count Data
2-7
Traffic Impact Study Count Data
Traffic count data also was collected by the City of Chattanooga as part of a traffic impact
study of the VW plant. Total vehicle counts were collected at 35 intersections and three
railroad crossings in the study area with truck counts collected only at the three railroad
crossings (see Figure 2.4). These counts were conducted during peak periods primarily to
identify current locations of congestion and enable the forecasting of future bottlenecks.2
Counts were taken in the morning from 6:00 a.m. to 8:45 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.,
and in the afternoon from 3:00 p.m. to 5:45 p.m.
Table 2.3 shows the count results for intersections in the study area. Based on this data,
the three highest total volume locations are U.S. 11/64 at the I-75 Northbound exit ramp
(19,089 vehicles), U.S. 11/64 at Little Debbie Parkway (19,052 vehicles), and the I-75
Northbound exit ramp at Bonny Oaks Drive (18,697 vehicles). However, it is important to
note that the City of Chattanooga counts only cover peak hours and therefore do not
constitute daily traffic counts. The highest truck counts were found at the Jersey Pike
railroad crossings with 1,116 trucks, 11 percent of the total volume at that location.
Figure 2.4 Count Locations from VW Traffic Impact Analysis
2
Forecasts for these locations were developed as part of the traffic impact study but were not
available in time for inclusion in this report.
2-8
Source: Volkert and Associates/City of Chattanooga.
Table 2.3
VW Traffic Impact Analysis Counts at Key Intersections
2008 Morning and Afternoon Peak Hours
ID
Year
Total
Traffic
Trucks
Source
Intersections
U.S. 11/64 at I-75 NB Exit Ramp
25
2008
19,089
N/A
Traffic Impact Analysis Study
U.S. 11/64 at Little Debbie Parkway
28
2008
19,052
N/A
2
2008
18,697
N/A
SR 58 at Hickory Valley Road
15
2008
18,583
N/A
I-75 SB Exit Ramp at Lee Highway
26
2008
18,514
N/A
SR 58 at Jersey Pike
13
2008
18,241
N/A
SR 58 at SR 153
12
2008
17,915
N/A
3
2008
17,540
N/A
16
2008
17,093
N/A
4
2008
15,249
N/A
27
2008
14,751
N/A
I-75 NB Exit Ramp at Bonny Oaks Drive
Intersections
I-75 SB Exit Ramp at Bonny Oaks Drive
SR 58 at Clark Road
U.S. 11/64 at Bonny Oaks Drive
U.S. 11/64 at Hunter Road/Mountain View Road
U.S. 11/64 at Main Street/Ooltewah Georgetown Road
30
2008
14,561
N/A
SR 58 at Webb Road
N/A
2006
13,520
N/A
City of Chattanooga
SR 58 at Innwood Lane
N/A
2006
13,439
N/A
City of Chattanooga
SR 58 at Oakwood Drive
N/A
2006
13,058
N/A
City of Chattanooga
SR 58 at Rocky River Road
N/A
2008
13,001
N/A
17
2008
12,243
N/A
A
2008
10,086
1,116
Hickory Valley Road
B
2008
5,181
265
Noah Reid Road
C
2008
1,219
26
SR 58 at Hunter Road
Railroad Crossings
Jersey Pike
Source: City of Chattanooga.
Bonny Oaks Drive Truck Counts
CS staff conducted a brief truck traffic count exercise at the south entrance to Enterprise
South, on Bonny Oaks Drive. Data was collected in the afternoon from 3:00 p.m. to 3:30
p.m. for various classes of trucks, categorized by number of axles and number of units
(e.g., single unit pickup, tractor-trailer, etc.). This data is presented below in Table 2.4. As
shown in the table, most of the traffic consists of vans and pickup trucks, followed by
2-9
single unit delivery/utility trucks and tractor-trailers. The data indicates that there
currently are very few semitrailers that utilize Bonny Oaks Drive. The predominant
direction of travel is westbound for all vehicle types. This data indicates that the current
truck traffic activity on the south side of the VW plant is minimal, because only two
tractor-trailers were noted at this location over a 30-minute period. Therefore, new truck
traffic on this roadway could generate new roadway/land use conflicts that currently are
not being experienced.
Table 2.4
Bonny Oaks Drive Truck Count Data at South Entrance to
Enterprise South
Eastbound
Westbound
16
20
0
1
37
Delivery/Utility Truck
6
8
0
0
14
Tractor-Trailer
1
3
0
1
5
23
31
0
2
56
Pickup/Van
Total
Source:
Northbound
Southbound
Total
Chattanooga TPO Travel Demand Model Outputs
The Chattanooga-Hamilton County TPO maintains a travel demand model to estimate
traffic in the Chattanooga metropolitan region. The geographic coverage of the model is
all of Hamilton County and the model estimates auto traffic volumes and truck traffic
volumes for a base year in 2002 and a future year of 2030 for all major corridors in the
area.3 Figure 2.5 shows the model’s estimated traffic flows on the study corridors for 2002
(in blue).
Not surprisingly, the travel demand model shows the highest volumes on Interstates 75
and 24, particularly at the intersection of the two. For example, I-75 just east of the
junction with I-24 is estimated at over 105,000 vehicles per day. However, there also are
several other corridors with high-traffic levels, including SR 58 (especially to the north and
west of Enterprise South) and SR 153, which connects SR 58 with I-75. U.S. 11/Lee
Highway to the south of SR 153, which connects downtown Chattanooga to Interstate 75
and SR 153, also experiences high-traffic volumes.
3
The travel demand model is currently being updated with a more current base year (2007) and
extended future year (2035) data. However, the model was not complete in time for use in this
study.
2-10
The model shows lower volumes on other corridors in the study area, including Lee
Highway north of SR 153 and Hickory Valley Road, neither of which experiences more
than 20,000 vehicles per day. Bonny Oaks Drive, which passes by the main entrance to
Enterprise South, is estimated to have slightly higher volumes (up to about 15,000 vehicles
per day). Traffic levels on SR 58 gradually diminish as it goes farther north. At the point
where it branches off from Interstate 75 to the east of Enterprise South, U.S. 11/Lee
Highway has higher traffic volumes adjacent to the highway, but they taper off as the
road progresses outside the study area.
2-11
Figure 2.5 Travel Demand Model Estimated Traffic Flows
2002
2-12
Comparison of Model Output to LRTP Count Data
The Chattanooga TPO travel demand model has been successfully calibrated and
validated for use in regional planning purposes. However, it has not been specifically
designed to analyze the impacts of a new freight facility such as the VW plant. To
determine how to most effectively utilize the model to analyze this facility, a comparison
between truck and auto counts and model volume outputs was conducted.
Table 2.5 shows total traffic volumes from the 2002 base year in the travel demand model
and the 2008 TPO counts along with the percent difference between the two for each
location. The model estimates are reasonably close to the TPO counts suggesting that the
model adequately forecasts total traffic volumes in the study area. The biggest differences
are found on SR 58 south of Hickory Valley Road (TPO counts are 37 percent lower than
model estimates) and Bonny Oaks west of Hickory Valley (TPO counts are 30 percent
higher than the model). These differences are reasonable given that the counts were
conducted six years after the model’s base year in 2002.
Table 2.6 shows truck traffic volumes from the 2002 base year model outputs and truck
volumes from the 2008 TPO counts along with the percent difference between the two for
each location. The model performs reasonably well on SR 153 and portions of Hickory
Valley Road. However, the model significantly underestimates trucks on Interstate 75 and
on SR 58. On Interstate 75, the difference between the two sources ranges from 160
percent to 428 percent. This underestimation will be considered when considering model
results for future analyses.
Figure 2.6 shows the location of each count station and the total traffic volumes derived
from the model and the TPO counts at each one. Figure 2.7 shows the same information
for trucks only. The maps show the key differences between the model outputs and the
TPO counts in a more visual fashion.
Some key conclusions can be drawn from the tables and maps presented above:
•
The City of Chattanooga count data presents accurate and current traffic volume, but
it is not directly comparable to other sources that provide daily traffic estimates
because it was only collected during the peak hours. Moreover, the lack of truck
volume information in the City of Chattanooga dataset may limit its usefulness for a
freight impact study.
•
The travel demand model is relatively accurate at estimating total traffic in the VW
study area. For example, Table 2.5 shows that overall, the model’s base year outputs
come within one percent of the recent counts taken for the LRTP update. Only half of
the model counts in the table deviate more than 15 percent from the ground counts,
with many well under 10 percent.
•
However, the model significantly underestimates truck traffic in the VW study area,
especially on I-75 (see Table 2.6). For example, the model only shows about 4,800
trucks per day (2002) on I-75 north of Shallowford Road, while the TPO truck count for
2-13
that section is about 25,600 – a difference of about 428 percent. Other segments of I-75
are similarly underestimated, as are Bonny Oaks Drive, Hickory Valley Road, and SR
58. It should be noted that the travel demand model was undergoing an update
during the development of this report. The model update will include updates to the
truck trip generation and truck trip distribution components which will potentially
lower or close the gap between truck counts and model truck volumes shown in Table
2.6 and Figure 2.7.
Table 2.5
Comparison of Travel Demand Model Output to LRTP Counts
All Vehicles
Location
Model
(2002)
TPO Counts
(2008)
Percent
Difference
91,305
96,809
6%
96,909
92,650
-4%
SR 153 North of Bonny Oaks
67,811
82,234
21%
71,410
77,720
9%
72,801
74,079
2%
I-75 North of Bonny Oaks
69,752
68,653
-2%
62,614
50,041
-20%
30,646
28,457
-7%
SR 58 South of Hickory Valley
43,764
27,426
-37%
32,022
25,577
-20%
Lee Highway West of Ooltewah Ringgold Road
20,446
19,740
-3%
Bonny Oaks West of Hickory Valley
13,162
17,174
30%
11,595
14,152
22%
Hickory Valley South of Bonny Oaks
5,962
6,801
14%
Hickory Valley North of Shallowford Road
7,574
6,393
-16%
Hickory Valley North of Lee Highway
3,913
4,931
26%
Average
2-14
1%
Table 2.6
Comparison of Travel Demand Model Output to LRTP Counts
Trucks Only
Location
Model
(2002)
TPO Counts (2008)
Medium
Trucks
Large
Trucks
Percent
Difference
4,853
12,991
12,612
428%
6,451
2,395
21,914
277%
4,538
8,205
14,372
398%
6,297
2,018
14,350
160%
4,336
1,601
10,931
189%
5,673
3,060
3,273
12%
5,466
904
3,423
-21%
1,743
2,612
580
83%
Bonny oaks West of Hickory Valley
1,185
1,725
589
95%
2,317
940
680
-30%
Lee Highway North of E Brainerd Road
2,449
884
451
-45%
1,472
677
389
-28%
269
946
28
262%
497
441
122
13%
332
168
29
-41%
177
145
18
-8%
Average
109%
2-15
Figure 2.6 Total Daily Traffic
2002 Travel Demand Model and 2008 TPO Counts
2-16
Figure 2.7 Total Daily Truck Traffic
2002 Travel Demand Model and 2008 TPO Counts
2-17
Implications of Model Results for VW Freight Impact Study
Based on the above analysis, the travel demand model underestimates truck traffic on I-75
and elsewhere in the study area. Therefore, for the VW Freight Impact Study, we will
utilize truck traffic data from ground counts rather than the model for base year
conditions. To forecast truck traffic in future years, the study will utilize the total volume
forecasts from the regional travel demand model, but then apply the model’s forecasted
growth rate to the truck count data available in the study area.
Chattanooga-Hamilton County Transportation Planning Organization
Model Forecasts
Figure 2.8 shows the model’s estimated traffic flows on the study corridors for 2002 (in
blue) and 2030 (in red).4 Many corridors in the study area are expected to experience
significant increases in traffic volumes in the future. Traffic on Interstate 75 is forecast to
grow 47 percent from about 71,000 daily vehicles on some segments to over 104,000
vehicles per day. The most dramatic growth (in percentage terms) is the 228 percent
growth expected on Bonny Oaks Drive, where traffic on some segments – particularly
west of the Hickory Valley intersection – is expected to reach about 43,000 cars per day.
The estimates produced from the travel demand model do not yet specifically account for
the additional passenger car and truck traffic that will be generated from the new VW
Plant.
4
Note that the model growth rates used for this study come from the 2005 TPO model. A model
update (which is now complete) was in progress during development of this report, but it was
not available in time for inclusion in the VW impacts model.
2-18
Figure 2.8 Travel Demand Model Current and Forecast Traffic Volumes
2002 and 2030
2-19
2.4 Truck and Automobile Volume Forecasts
Table 2.7 shows current and forecast truck and automobile traffic around the study area
based on truck traffic counts from the Chattanooga TPO combined with growth rates
derived from the travel demand model. Bonny Oaks Drive will likely experience
significant growth in truck traffic (up 153 percent between 2008 and 2030, to 5,863 per
day). Other segments experiencing rapid truck traffic growth include I-75 North of Exit 11
(which will more than double to over 25,000 trucks per year) and Lee Highway west of
Ooltewah Ringgold Road (which will grow by 73 percent, to about 1,800 trucks per day).
Other road segments will not experience such rapid growth in volumes but will still carry
significant truck traffic, especially on I-75.
Table 2.7
Estimating Truck Traffic Using Model Growth Rates
2008 and 2030
Truck Traffic
(2008)
Annual Growth Rate
Based on Travel
Demand Model
2030
Forecast Truck
Total
Volume
Volume
25,603
1.6%
36,673
104,770
24,309
0.4%
26,379
82,006
22,577
1.4%
30,642
91,319
16,368
1.1%
20,826
110,930
12,532
3.3%
25,674
147,552
6,333
1.3%
8,497
101,106
4,327
0.3%
4,603
81,914
3,192
1.7%
4,656
61,571
2,314
4.3%
5,863
43,181
1,620
0.7%
1,905
51,922
1,335
0.6%
1,520
38,603
1,066
2.5%
1,853
55,386
974
-6.7%
214
1,146
563
2.1%
887
15,471
197
-2.5%
112
4,219
163
-3.2%
80
1,865
Source:
2-20
Cambridge Systematics Analysis.
2.5 Current Congestion Levels in the Study Area
Many of the key corridors in the study area already are congested during peak hours. The
Chattanooga TPO has developed a Congestion Management Plan (CMP) to provide a
process by which the TPO can continuously monitor the performance of the
transportation system while providing strategies to reduce or alleviate congestion. The
CMP focuses on high-volume roads – those that are classified higher than a local street
and experience average annual daily traffic (AADT) of at least 15,000 vehicles in the
designated Chattanooga Central Business District and 10,000 vehicles elsewhere. A few
other key corridors were added, based on parameters such as percentage growth in
AADT, recent development, and other factors. Within the VW study area, Interstate 75,
SR 58, SR 153, SR 60, and U.S. 11/64 are all designated CMP routes.
Figure 2.9 shows the CMP routes in the study area and their estimated volume-to-capacity
ratios and level of service (LOS)5 at several key locations, based on the 2008 traffic counts
and capacity figures from the travel demand model. The locations highlighted in red are
operating at LOS E or F, which the TPO defines as congested for roads within the
urbanized area. These include portions of Interstate 75 (particularly near Enterprise
South) and Bonny Oaks Drive west of Hickory Valley. Locations highlighted in yellow
are at LOS C or D, which means they are nearing capacity, especially during peak traffic
periods. Although they currently are at an acceptable LOS, significant traffic volume
growth in the future could lead to deteriorating service conditions at these locations.
These locations include SR 58 south of Hickory Valley, SR 153 north of Bonny Oaks, and
parts of Lee Highway (U.S. 11). The locations highlighted in green currently are at LOS A
or B, meaning they are operating in an efficient and free-flowing manner. Note that
Hickory Valley Road is not a designated CMP route.
5
LOS is a commonly used service rating that compares total traffic volumes and percentage of
trucks to the overall capacity of a given highway. LOS ratings are letter grades, with A
representing free-flow conditions and F corresponding to gridlock and service breakdown.
2-21
Figure 2.9 Level of Service on Key Regional Corridors
2008
Source: CHCNGA TPO Congestion Management Plan.
2-22
2.6 Forecasted Congestion Levels in the Study Area
Table 2.8 shows forecasted level of service at the traffic count locations in the study area,
based on the total forecasted volumes shown in Table 2.7 and the expected 2030 road
capacity from the travel demand model (which accounts for anticipated capacity
improvements). As the table demonstrates, several locations within the study area will be
operating at LOS E or F, meaning they will be at or over capacity. Interstate 75 is expected
to be at LOS F near Exit 11 and north of Bonny Oaks, and LOS E north of Shallowford
Road. SR 58 to the north of Enterprise South also will be operating at LOS F, as will
several parts of Lee Highway. Bonny Oaks west of Hickory Valley (just to the south of
Enterprise South) also will be at LOS F, while SR 153 north of Bonny Oaks will be
approaching capacity. These locations of low LOSs will have a significantly negative
impact on truck traffic accessing the VW facility. At the same time, the new truck and
automobile traffic generated by the facility will exacerbate these congested conditions.
Figure 2.10 is a map showing each location and its associated volume-to-capacity ratio and
LOS in 2030. Compared to Figure 2.8, it is evident that many of the travel corridors in the
study area will experience deteriorating service conditions in the future, including I-75,
SR 58, U.S. 11, and SR 153. Although some locations are expected to have an enhanced
LOS compared to the base year (probably the result of planned improvements to the road
network), most will experience additional congestion. This indicates that I-75 will need
capacity enhancements in order to accommodate both the new traffic generated by the
VW Plant and the underlying traffic from other activities occurring in the study area.
2-23
Table 2.8
Future Volume to Capacity Ratios and Level of Service
2030
Total Volume
Capacity
V/C Ratio
LOS
147,552
108,640
1.36
F
43,181
33,800
1.28
F
61,571
50,700
1.21
F
Lee Highway North of E Brainerd Road
38,603
32,560
1.19
F
55,386
48,840
1.13
F
91,319
81,480
1.12
F
51,922
48,840
1.06
F
104,770
108,600
0.96
E
101,106
108,600
0.93
E
110,930
144,800
0.77
C
81,914
108,600
0.75
C
82,006
126,700
0.65
B
15,471
32,560
0.48
A
4,219
11,840
0.36
A
1,865
11,840
0.16
A
1,146
11,840
0.10
A
2-24
Figure 2.10 Future Level of Service on Key Regional Corridors
2030
Source: CHCNGA TPO Congestion Management Plan.
2-25
2.7 Rail Activity in the Study Area
Two Class I national railroads operate in the study area – Norfolk Southern (NS) and CSX
Transportation (CSXT). Figure 2.11 is a map of rail lines in the area. CSX operates a line
between Chattanooga and the Tyner area just south of Enterprise South. Here it connects
to the now-dormant tracks that used to serve the old munitions plant.
Norfolk Southern has a larger presence in the region. The DeButts Yard, located about 6.5
miles to the west of Enterprise South, contains approximately 230 linear miles of track,
including receiving, classification, and forwarding tracks. The yard processes about 50
trains daily and serves five major NS trunk lines: north to Cincinnati; west to Memphis;
east to Knoxville, Bristol, and the Carolinas; south to Atlanta, Macon, and Florida; and
southwest to Birmingham. There also are three public at-grade crossings adjacent to the
study area, at Hickory Valley Road, Noah Reid Road, and Jersey Pike.
The NS trunk line running by Enterprise South is part of the Crescent Corridor, which is a
major capacity investment currently being undertaken by the railroad. NS is working to
develop high-speed intermodal service linking the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. Corridor
projects include straightening curves, signal upgrades, new intermodal terminals, and
adding passing tracks. The railroad estimates that there are up to one million divertible
truck trips along the corridor. It is anticipated that growing freight demand along the
upgraded corridor will add six trains per day to current rail traffic by 2015.
The Tennessee Valley Railroad Museum also operates a historical/tourist train in the area,
denoted by the abbreviation MUSE in Figure 2.10. The museum offers scheduled trips
between Grand Junction Station (located to the west of SR 153 off Cromwell Road) and the
East Chattanooga Depot, which is on North Chamberlain Street to the east of the DeButts
Yard. This trip is offered either twice daily or five times daily depending on day of week
and seasonality. The museum also offers longer excursions between Chattanooga and
Chickamauga, Georgia in addition to seasonal trips such as viewing fall colors.
There also currently is a proposal to establish high-speed commuter rail service between
Atlanta and Chattanooga. The rail line would provide an alternate route to I-75 – which
already is congested between the two cities – while helping to promote economic
development and address the region’s air quality issues. A Tier 1 Environmental Impact
Statement (EIS) is underway to assess several alternatives for such a service, including
different rail technologies, potential alignments, and station locations. It also will consider
ridership projections, capital and operating costs, and economic impacts. The rail corridor
would be 110 miles long and would generally parallel I-75 between Hartsfield-Jackson
International Airport and downtown Chattanooga. The EIS is expected to be complete by
early spring of 2010. Since the proposed commuter line would utilize Magnetic Levitation
(Mag-Lev) technology operating over dedicated tracks, it would not interfere with freight
rail operations in the region.
For purposes of routing the new train traffic expected to be generated by the VW factory,
it will be assumed that all trains originating at Enterprise South will travel westward to a
holding yard, where the loaded rail cars will be picked up by either CSX or NS.
2-26
Figure 2.11 Railroads in the Study Area
2-27
Table 2.9 shows the number of trains per day, average annual daily traffic (AADT), and
average annual daily truck traffic for each crossing, along with the types of crossing
devices employed. This data is based on the Federal Railroad Administration Rail
Crossing Database. The database provides detailed information on each of the at-grade
rail crossings in the country. The crossings at Hickory Valley Road and Noah Reid Road
cross Norfolk Southern right-of-way, while the one at Jersey Pike crosses CSX right-ofway. The Jersey Pike crossing only experiences two trains per day. These movements are
switching operations with the trains moving at 10 miles per hour or less. The Norfolk
Southern line, by contrast, handles 36 trains daily at speeds up to 55 miles per hour. Four
of those trains are making switching maneuvers. Accordingly, these crossings have more
robust crossing devices, including four quadrant gates in addition to the standard
crossbucks, flashing lights, and bells.
Stakeholder feedback gathered during the development of this report indicates that the
NS mainline experiences anywhere from 25 to 40 trains per day, which suggests that the
FRA estimate of daily train traffic is accurate. Stakeholders also revealed that about 80
percent of the trains on these tracks today are traveling east, while the other 20 percent are
moving west.
Table 2.9 Railroad Crossings in the Study Area
Crossing
Hickory Valley Road
Railroad
Trains
per Day (2005)
AADT
Norfolk Southern
36
5,181
2008
AADTT
265
Crossing Devices
• Four quadrant gates
• Crossbucks
• Flashing lights
• Bells
Jersey Pike
CSX
Transportation
2
10,086
1,116
• Crossbucks
• Flashing lights
• Bells
Noah Reid Road
Norfolk Southern
36
1,219
26
• Four quadrant gates
• Crossbucks
• Flashing lights
• Bells
Sources: Federal Railroad Administration, City of Chattanooga traffic counts.
2-28
2.8 Planned Projects in the Study Area
It is also important to understand planned improvements to the transportation network in
the area around Enterprise South to see how they will affect freight traffic patterns and
impacts associated with the VW facility as well as other economic activity. Transportation
projects are planned through the Federally required Long Range Transportation Plan
(LRTP) and programmed via a Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). The
Chattanooga LRTP, known as LRTP 2035, is presently being updated. Figure 2.12 is a map
showing the expected roadway enhancements for the entire TPO region through the year
2035. Included are many road widening projects and a few new alignments. Some of
these projects will impact Enterprise South and the new VW plant.
The projects located in the VW study area are described in Table 2.10. Of particular note is
Enterprise Parkway, a new road being built between I-75 and SR 58, which will connect to
I-75 via a new interchange that was recently completed. This will provide a direct link to
I-75 for the VW factory. Bonny Oaks, U.S. 11, and SR 58 are also the focus of planned
widening projects. Other roads within Enterprise South are also slated for improvements.
Although not all of these projects are guaranteed to be funded at this point, the addition of
any new capacity in the study area will enhance the movement of freight to and from the
new Volkswagen facility.
2-29
Figure 2.12 Planned Road Improvements in the Chattanooga TPO Region
Source: LRTP 2035.
2-30
Table 2.10 Planned Road Improvements in the VW Study Area
Roadway
US 11/US 64/Lee
Highway
Segment
From McCutcheon Road to SR
317
From Champion Road to SR
SR 58
312
SR 317/Bonny Oaks Drive From SR 17 to I-75
From Enterprise
SIA Road for VW
Boulevard/Discovery Drive to
(Industrial Access Rd.)
SR 58
From I-75 Enterprise South
SR 317 Connector
Interchange to Apison Pike at
(Proposed)
Old Lee Highway
From Enterprise Parkway/I-75
Interchange to Enterprise
Enterprise Pkwy.
Boulevard/Parkway Fork
From Standifer Gap Road to
Hickory Valley Rd
Enterprise Parkway
Enterprise Parkway
Hickory Valley Rd.
a
Proposed Improvements
Year
Completeda
2025
Widen from 2 to 4 lanes
2035
2015
2025
Industrial access road for
Volkswagen factory
2011
New 4-lane facility
2010
New 4-lane facility
New
alignment/widening of
From Hickory Valley Road to 1 Hickory Valley Road
mile South of SR 58
through Enterprise South
From Enterprise Parkway
Extension to SR 58
2025
2015
2015
Subject to revision.
2-31
3.0 VW Plant Freight Forecast
3.1 Introduction
This section describes the methodology and analysis used to develop a spreadsheet-based
model to forecast freight transportation impacts of the new Volkswagen (VW) plant. The
methodology and results presented in this section also were provided to representatives
of VW and Enterprise South for review before the study was finalized. The model
estimates freight demand generated by the plant through the year 2035, and the impact of
that demand on area highway and rail corridors. The vehicular freight demand that will
be generated by this plant can be grouped into three categories:
1. Outgoing shipments of finished automobiles;
2. Incoming shipments of parts, supplies, and materials; and
3. Empty truck and rail moves.
The following sections discuss the methodology used to arrive at freight demand forecasts
for these three movement types. The model parameters, their associated assumptions,
and data sources are described in Appendix A.
3.2 Outgoing Automobile Shipments
Trip Generation
The new plant is scheduled to open in 2011 with initial production of 114,000 mid-sized
sedans. VW officials hope to produce 173,000 cars annually by 2014. Accordingly, annual
vehicle production is set at 114,000 cars in the initial forecast year of 2011. VW’s
anticipated production in the years 2012 to 2014 then was used to establish a four-year
baseline production forecast. Annual production levels thereafter were estimated by
applying the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2012 to 2014 to the baseline
3-1
production data.6 This yielded a forecast annual production of approximately 229,000
vehicles by 2035.
Some of these cars will be shipped by truck and others by rail. Feedback from VW on the
original model indicated that VW officials expect to ship 10 to 15 percent of the vehicles by
truck, with the remainder moving via rail. CS, therefore, applied a mode split of 85
percent rail and 15 percent truck throughout the model for estimating the number of
trucks and trains carrying finished automobiles. The rail mode share (85 percent) includes
truck/rail intermodal.
Data from VW officials indicated that each car-carrying semi truck will be able to carry
nine finished automobiles, while each rail car will carry 15 automobiles. This information
was used to calculate the annual number of outgoing trucks and rail cars from the factory.
The number of cars moving via rail was converted to trains per year by combining VW’s
capacity figures with assumptions about standard train length and autorack rail car
dimensions obtained from the Hamilton County Railroad Authority (HCRRA).
These annual truck and train estimates were converted to daily totals based on the
assumption of 245 working days per year, which was provided by VW. It was assumed
that Norfolk Southern will be providing rail service to the VW facility, based on feedback
from the HCRRA and the fact that NS has a larger market share in the region.
This process resulted in an estimate of 8 trucks leaving the facility per day and 0.38 trains
leaving the facility per day in 2011. In 2035, the number of trucks and trains leaving the
facility are 16 and 0.76, respectively.
Trip Distribution
The next step was to distribute the truck and rail shipments to destinations throughout the
United States. This was done using data on the number of VW dealerships by state,
obtained from a dealership guide provided by VW. Each state (plus the District of
Columbia) was assigned truck and rail shipments in proportion to the number of VW
dealerships in the state as a percentage of the total nationwide. Table 3.1 shows the
number of dealerships in each state.
6
The production growth from 2011 to 2012 was omitted from the calculation of CAGR because it
exhibits an unusually high growth in volume, which would have led to unrealistically high
production estimates.
3-2
Table 3.1
Number of VW Dealerships by State
State
.
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Number of
Dealerships
6
1
6
3
64
12
14
2
1
36
13
4
3
28
10
6
4
5
4
7
15
20
17
9
2
6
Percent
of Total
1.0%
0.2%
1.0%
0.5%
10.9%
2.1%
2.4%
0.3%
0.2%
6.2%
2.2%
0.7%
0.5%
4.8%
1.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
1.2%
2.6%
3.4%
2.9%
1.5%
0.3%
1.0%
State
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Number of
Dealerships
Percent
of Total
4
3
3
7
26
3
38
16
1
17
2
9
40
4
8
2
11
29
4
4
18
17
5
15
1
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
1.2%
4.4%
0.5%
6.5%
2.7%
0.2%
2.9%
0.3%
1.5%
6.8%
0.7%
1.4%
0.3%
1.9%
5.0%
0.7%
0.7%
3.1%
2.9%
0.9%
2.6%
0.2%
Route Assignments
The final step was to assign these movements to specific highway and rail corridors in
Chattanooga. The location of the VW facility just west of I-75 will result in the majority of
the truck traffic generated at the VW facility using this roadway. However, truck traffic
heading northwest or southwest from the facility may elect to utilize Highway 58 around
Chattanooga to I-24, particularly during periods when I-75 is congested. This would be a
less than optimal outcome, because the truck traffic would then come into conflict with
local traffic and a variety of nonfreight-intensive land use types. Additionally, trucks
accessing Highway 58 from the VW facility also may utilize roads nearby to the VW
facility that are not well-suited for heavy truck traffic such as Bonny Oaks Drive,
particularly if they exit the VW facility via the southern entrance. It would be beneficial
3-3
for trucks with outgoing shipments of VW cars to be directed to I-75 from the VW facility
to minimize this conflicting vehicular activity.
For purposes of this estimation process, it was assumed that all truck movements of
outgoing automobile shipments use I-75. Flows were assigned to the north and south
directions based on state of destination. This assumption led to an estimate of four trucks
traveling northbound and five trucks traveling southbound from the VW facility in 2011.
By 2035, this would increase to eight trucks per day going north and 10 trucks per day
moving south on I-75.
Outbound rail shipments are assigned to eastbound and westbound directions on the NS
trunk line based on directional splits provided by the HCRRA. According to HCRRA,
approximately 20 percent of the current traffic on the NS mainline is moving west
(towards downtown Chattanooga), with the remaining 80 percent moving eastbound. All
CSX trains are assumed to move west from Enterprise South, where they will connect to
the CSX trunk line.
3.3 Incoming Supply Shipments
Trip Generation
In the automobile manufacturing industry, there are three different classes of supplier
firms:
•
Tier 1 suppliers are those companies that directly supply a manufacturing facility –
for example, a firm that provides seats to be installed on cars moving down the
assembly line.
•
Tier 2 suppliers are firms that supply the Tier 1 suppliers. An example would be an
upholstery company that provides seat coverings to the manufacturer of the seats.
•
Tier 3 suppliers sell production inputs to the Tier 2 companies. For example, a
company that distributes raw bolts of cloth might sell that material to the upholstery
company, which then turns it into seat covers and sells it to the Tier 1 seat
manufacturer.
This industry structure makes it necessary to estimate truck trip generation separately for
Tier 1 and Tier 2/3 suppliers. The project team’s approach to doing so is outlined below.
Tier 1 Suppliers
The supply chain for the Tier 1 Suppliers has not yet been finalized. VW officials have
provided varying estimates for the percent of incoming shipments coming by rail ranging
from 0 percent to 20 percent. To determine the maximum potential impact on the roads in
3-4
the study area, we use the assumption that all of the inbound shipments will be by truck.
Freight demand associated with Tier 1 supplier shipments was estimated using two
primary data sources, which are described below.
1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Benchmark Input-Output Accounts. The Bureau
of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces estimates of the dollar value of commodity and
industry inputs required to produce a unit of output (usually $1) for all industries in
the economy. The resulting tables can, therefore, be used to develop ‘recipes’ for the
commodity inputs required in specific industries. We used BEA estimates of the
dollar value of inputs by commodity required for the manufacture of automobiles to
determine the appropriate commodity mix of incoming shipments to the Volkswagen
facility. Table 3.2 shows the amount and types of inputs used to generate a dollar of
output for cars.
Table 3.2
Commodity Inputs Required for Automobile Production
Commodity
Value
Motor Vehicle Bodies, Trailers, and Parts
$0.463
Plastics and Rubber Products
$0.034
Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment
$0.031
Other Fabricated Metal Products
$0.023
All Other Commodities
$0.449
Total
$1.000
2. U.S. Census Commodity Flow Survey. We also used 2002 CFS data to develop
conversion factors allowing us to convert the BEA estimates to tonnage estimates. As
part of the CFS, the Census Bureau publishes data characterizing freight volume and
value by commodity and origin state. This data was collected for Tennessee and all
states that share a border with Tennessee. Data from neighboring states was used if
Tennessee-specific data was redacted due to confidentiality requirements. In such
instances, we used available commodity data from the state nearest to Chattanooga,
on the assumption that economies in the region are roughly similar in composition. If
there was no direct correlation between the CFS commodities and the BEA
commodities (the two data sources use slightly different commodity classifications),
we used an aggregate conversion factor for all commodities. Table 3.3 shows the
conversion factors used for our analysis.
3-5
Table 3.3
Commodity Conversion Factors
Tons per Dollar
Commodity
All Commoditiesa
Live Animals and Live Fish
Cereal Grains
Other Agricultural Products
Animal Feed and Products of Animal Origin, n.e.c.
Meat, Fish, Seafood, and their Preparations
Milled Grain Products and Preparations, and Bakery Products
Other Prepared Foodstuffs and Fats and Oils
Alcoholic Beverages
Tobacco Products
Monumental or Building Stone
Natural Sands
Gravel and Crushed Stone
Nonmetallic Minerals, n.e.c.
Metallic Ores and Concentrates
Coal
Gasoline and Aviation Turbine Fuel
Fuel Oils
Coal and Petroleum Products, n.e.c.
Basic Chemicals
Pharmaceutical Products
Fertilizers
Chemical Products and Preparations, n.e.c.
Plastics and Rubber
Logs and Other Wood in the Rough
Wood Products
Pulp, Newsprint, Paper, and Paperboard
Paper or Paperboard Articles
Printed Products
Textiles, Leather, and Articles of Textiles or Leather
Nonmetallic Mineral Products
Base Metal in Primary or Semifinished Forms and in Finished Basic Shapes
Articles of Base Metal
Machinery
Electronic and Other Electrical Equipment and Components and Office Equipment
Motorized and Other Vehicles (including Parts)
Transportation Equipment, n.e.c.
Precision Instruments and Apparatus
Furniture, Mattresses and Mattress Supports, Lamps, Lighting Fittings
Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Waste and Scrap
Mixed Freight
Commodity Unknown
Conversion Factor
0.0009431
0.0005560
0.0101795
0.0017356
0.0041954
0.0004506
0.0009132
0.0011043
0.0008251
0.0000317
0.0009431
0.1356882
0.1643824
0.0066689
0.0007500
0.0283486
0.0031993
0.0043434
0.0051872
0.0012416
0.0000110
0.0069368
0.0005809
0.0003702
0.0028571
0.0018554
0.0016126
0.0007844
0.0003161
0.0001184
0.0071152
0.0009161
0.0003783
0.0001331
0.0000983
0.0001969
0.0000538
0.0000094
0.0002133
0.0001856
0.0045333
0.0002868
0.0004488
Source: 2002 U.S. Census Commodity Flow Survey.
a
Excludes crude oil shipments.
n.e.c. = Not elsewhere classified.
3-6
To develop forecasts, annual automobile production at the plant was multiplied by the
mid-range price of a Volkswagen CC sedan as listed on VW’s web site to arrive at total
annual production value for the factory. This was multiplied by the dollar value of each
commodity required to produce $1 of output (from the BEA data) to arrive at the annual
dollar value of each commodity input. The result was converted to annual tons using
conversion factors from the CFS data. Tons then were converted to trucks assuming 20
tons per truck; the resulting annual trucks were converted again to daily trucks assuming
245 working days per year. This analysis generated an estimate of 308 trucks per day in
and out of the VW facility to deliver supplies in 2011 and 621 trucks per day estimated in
2035.
Volkswagen’s logistics managers indicated that they expect 254 supply trucks per day
when the plant opens in 2011. Therefore, the estimate generated in this study was 17
percent higher than what was expected by the VW representatives. The model was
recalibrated to correct this discrepancy. We adjusted our commodity conversion factors
by the ratio of VW’s anticipated truck volumes to those generated by our initial forecast,
which is approximately 82.5 percent. This made the model estimate of initial supplier
truck traffic in 2011 equal to that supplied by Volkswagen, thus ensuring the greatest
forecast accuracy. Using the updated conversion factors, the model can be used to
estimate interim years between 2011 and 2035. It can also be easily adjusted if the
production volumes at the VW plant change from the projected amounts.
It should be noted that the number of trucks generated from suppliers accessing the VW
facility is projected to be much higher than the number of trucks generated from shipping
finished automobiles to dealerships. This indicates that the focus of transportation
improvement efforts should be on providing optimal access from suppliers to the VW site
including developing an efficient supplier location strategy.
Tier 2 and 3 Suppliers
Tier 2 and 3 suppliers are more difficult in terms of estimating truck traffic. There is not a
lot of literature on the functioning of these suppliers as it tends to vary significantly from
site to site. However, it can be assumed that their total number of trucks produced is at
least the same as the Tier 1 suppliers given the smaller shipment sizes. Additionally, the
specialized nature of their shipments indicates that truck will be the dominant mode.
Therefore, we doubled the Tier 1 truck estimates to account for this extra activity, on the
assumption that the Tier 2 and 3 suppliers require a similar volume of production inputs
to the Tier 1 firms. This yielded an additional 254 trucks per day (in 2011) and 512 trucks
per day (in 2035) on area roads.
Trip Distribution and Route Assignment
Incoming trucks were assigned to specific roads in the study area based on a map of VWvetted supplier locations (see Figure 3.1). Visual observation of Figure 3.1 indicates that
3-7
most of the sites will have access to I-75. Therefore, this estimate assigns all of the
supplier traffic to I-75 from the nearest interchange location for the supplier. For this
initial forecast, it will be assumed that all suppliers will ship an equal volume of supplies
to the factory. This estimation process results in a total of 509 trucks per day (in 2011) and
1,024 trucks per day (in 2035) added to the current projections of truck traffic on I-75.
3-8
Figure 3.1 Locations of VW Supplier Businesses
Thirty-, 40-, 50-Mile Radius from Enterprise South
3-9
3.4 Empty Truck Trips
Empty truck trips occur as trucks reposition their fleets to access new customers or to
return to their home base. For simplicity, it is assumed that suppliers have their own
private trucking fleet to deliver parts to the VW facility. Therefore, the only empty truck
trips would be to return to home base after the supplies were delivered. However, for
outgoing shipments of trucks from an automobile facility, the standard practice is to use
for-hire car-carrier trucking firms to transport cars from the facility to dealerships. The
for-hire trucks will travel empty from their home base to the VW facility before picking up
their cars and delivering them to the car dealerships.
Trip Generation
The number of empty trucks arriving at the facility will be the same as the number of
trucks that leave the facility. This estimate was generated in the “Outgoing Automobile
Shipments” section above and is 8 trucks per day in 2011 and 16 trucks per day in 2035.
Trip Distribution
To understand how empty truck trips would be distributed across the Chattanooga
region, it is important to estimate the location of the home bases (or truck terminals) of the
trucking firms that are likely to transport the VW cars from the manufacturing facility to
dealerships. There is not much specific existing information on the location of car carrier
trucking firms that might be hired to transport cars from the VW plant. Internet research
indicates that there are several trucking firms distributed throughout the metropolitan
region. However, there does appear to be a concentration of trucking firms south of I-24
and west of I-75.
The best available proxy for estimating the location of truck terminals is the location of
large-scale manufacturing activity in the region. Typically, for-hire truck terminals and
large manufacturing facilities are roughly co-located to allow trucks efficient access to the
facilities. Therefore, a reasonable proxy for the location of truck terminals would be areas
where manufacturing employment is much higher than the rest of the region. This can be
determined from the Chattanooga TPO socioeconomic database which includes estimates
of employment by one-digit SIC code. Figure 3.2 shows the traffic analysis zones in the
Chattanooga TPO region with 2007 manufacturing employment greater than 1,000. For
estimation purposes, we assume that trucking firms will be distributed to these zones
based on their level of employment.
3-10
Figure 3.2 Traffic Analysis Zones with More than 1,000
Manufacturing Employees
2007
3-11
Route Choice
Visual inspection of the location of the zones where trucking firms are likely to be located
indicate that much of the truck traffic from these locations will use I-75 (sometimes via
I-24), as well as State Highway 153. The preferred local street for access to Enterprise
South will be Bonny Oaks Drive. This would increase estimated traffic on these roadways
from current estimates to higher numbers as shown in Table 3.4.
Observations at similar automobile plants in the U.S. suggest that at least some trucking
firms will buy or lease facilities near the VW factory from which to deploy their fleets.
This would take some of these empty truck trips off the larger road network. Given that
the model projects such a low number of empty truck trips to begin with, the overall
impact of empty truck movements generated by the VW facility is likely to be small.
Table 3.4
Change in Traffic on Local Roads for Empty Truck Moves
2011 Truck Traffic Projections
Current
Additional Empty Trucks
Roadway
Bonny Oaks Drive
Interstate 75
SR 153
3.5
2035 Truck Traffic Projections
Current Additional Empty Trucks
49
9
99
17
518
5
1,041
10
0
4
0
8
Rail Car Movements
The potential for up to 20 percent of the incoming shipments to arrive by rail equates to
roughly 1 train per day of incoming goods. This will have the impact of increasing delays
at rail crossings located nearby to the VW facility. It will also be necessary to deliver
empty rail cars to the VW facility to be loaded with finished automobiles for distribution.
The number of empty rail cars arriving at the factory will, therefore, be the same as the
number leaving it. VW logistics managers affirmed this assumption. Therefore, we
assume that the total number of trains pulling empty rail cars is equal to the number of
loaded trains leaving the factory (0.37 in 2011, rising to 0.74 by 2035). The total number of
trains moving in and out of the facility will thus be 0.74 in 2011 and 1.49 in 2035.
3.6 Overall Model Results
The overall freight demand model results are shown below in Table 3.5 for both the truck
and rail modes. We estimate that the VW facility will generate demand for 526 truck trips
3-12
per day when it opens in 2011, rising to 1,059 trucks per day in 2035. Similarly, the factory
will generate at most 1.74 trains per day beginning in 2011, which could grow as high as
3.49 daily trains by 2035.
Table 3.5
Total Daily Truck and Rail Traffic Generated by the VW Plant
2011 and 2035
2011
Shipment Type
Outgoing Automobile Shipments
Maximum Incoming Supplies
Incoming Empties
Total
Trucks
2035
Trains
Trucks
Trains
9
0.37
17
0.74
509
1.00
1,024
2.00
9
0.37
17
0.74
526
1.74
1,059
3.49
The vast majority of these extra truck trips will impact I-75 as VW suppliers ship parts and
components to the factory. Since Bonny Oaks Drive will be the local street most often
used to access Enterprise South, it is likely that a great deal of these trucks will also use
that facility. The trucks generated by the VW facility will be in addition to growing truck
and passenger car demand on all of the study corridors, many of which are at or near
capacity.
The NS and CSX rail lines will both experience additional rail traffic consisting of empty
autoracks being delivered to the plant and loaded ones moving out. In the case of NS, this
will coincide with the development of the Crescent Corridor, a major capacity expansion
that will link the Gulf Coast region to the Northeast, passing through Tennessee. This
extra rail traffic will manifest itself in a number of ways. HCRRA will assemble unit trains
of loaded autoracks at the factory, which they will then transfer to an off-site holding area.
CSX and NS will then pick up the cars from there. This process can create delays in two
ways: 1) as the loaded rail cars are transferred to the holding site and 2) when NS and CSX
hook up the rail cars to their existing trains.
Additional rail traffic generated by the Volkswagen plant will increase delays for
automobiles at the three at-grade crossings in the study area, which are located at Noah
Reid Road, Jersey Pike, and Hickory Valley Road. Each of these roads runs in a northsouth direction and will be blocked from time to time by trains accessing Enterprise South,
as well as other freight rail traffic utilizing the same tracks. The exact amount of delay
will vary based on the total number of trains, how fast they are moving, and their length,
and is therefore difficult to predict with any certainty. However, the VW Traffic Impact
Study prepared by Volkert and Associates estimated that a train consisting of 90 rail cars
(about 8,500 feet long) would cause 19.2 minutes of delay at a grade crossing, assuming it
was moving at five miles per hour. Since the VW facility is expected to generate a total of
1.74 trains per day when it opens and 3.49 trains per day by 2035, there will be additional
3-13
delays at these crossings. This would be in addition to delay created by other trains,
which would likely be moving faster but would still block grade crossings in the study
area.
This could be problematic given the existing auto and truck traffic levels at these three
grade crossings. The Jersey Pike crossing currently has the highest traffic levels at just
over 10,000 total vehicles, approximately 1,100 of which are trucks. Although this crossing
does not experience much rail traffic at present (CSX uses it primarily for switching
purposes), this will likely change as CSX competes for rail freight generated by the VW
plant. This will increase vehicle delays at this crossing. It could also raise safety concerns.
Presently, the Jersey Pike crossing has limited safety devices and lacks four-quadrant
gates that would prevent vehicles from crossing the tracks when a train is approaching.
The crossings at Noah Reid Road and Hickory Valley Road have less traffic (1,219 and
5,181 vehicles per day, respectively) but are located on the Norfolk Southern main line,
which already carries 25 to 40 trains per day traveling up to 55 miles per hour.
Completion of the new Crescent Corridor has the potential to add another six trains per
day by 2015. Blockages on these streets may impact trucks accessing Enterprise South,
particularly on Hickory Valley Road, which offers direct access to the site.
3-14
4.0 Key Findings and
Recommendations
In this section, we will summarize the information presented in Sections 2.0 and 3.0 to
develop key findings for this study. We will also describe a set of strategies and specific
recommendations for implementation in the VW study area.
Key Findings
•
The Volkswagen factory will generate a significant number of trucks and rail cars.
It is estimated that the VW plant will generate over 500 trucks per day when it opens
in 2011, growing to over 1,000 trucks per day in 2035. This can be compared to less
than 1,000 trucks per day on Hickory Valley Road and Lee Road/U.S. 11/U.S. 64;
3,000 trucks per day on SR 58; 6,000 trucks per day on SR 153; and over 20,000 trucks
per day on I-75. Therefore, the number of trucks generated has the potential to
significantly impact the number of trucks on the local roads, but they will be a very
small fraction of the number of trucks currently on I-75. The estimate of new rail cars
generated by the VW plant will be equivalent to approximately one new train per day.
•
Most of the truck traffic generated by the VW plant will be from suppliers
delivering materials. Ninety percent of the finished vehicles will be shipped out of
the VW plant by rail. However, the vast majority of the supplies will be delivered to
the plant by trucks. Therefore, truck trip distribution and routing on the local network
will primarily be driven by the location choices of the suppliers. To the extent to
which planners can influence these choices, the trip patterns of trucks generated by the
VW plant will be manageable.
•
Truck and auto traffic generated by the VW plant will be heavily impacted by
congestion. There is currently a significant amount of congestion in the study area
including LOS D and LOS E at several locations on I-75, SR 58, and Bonny Oaks Drive.
This could tempt truck and auto drivers to utilize lower classification roads to access
I-75. For example, trucks exiting Enterprise South at the southern exit may choose to
take local roads such as Hickory Valley Road to access I-75. These local roads have not
been designed for trucks, so new truck traffic has the potential to increase congestion
and decrease safety on the local roads.
•
There is a mix of land uses nearby to the VW plant. The plant is surrounded by
residential areas immediately to its south and east and to a lesser extent on the north.
There are also several retail locations nearby to the plant. Therefore, the local roads
4-1
surrounding the plant are currently dominated by automobiles. Many of the local
roads are also designed for automobile traffic.
•
At-grade railroad crossings in the study area will experience increased delay. There
are three at-grade railroad crossings where both trucks and auto delay will increase
due to the new rail traffic generated by the VW plant. The Hickory Valley Road
at-grade crossing has the highest levels of truck and auto traffic and will, therefore,
likely experience the most increased delay. This is mitigated by the fact that Bonny
Oaks Drive has three railroad overpasses and no at-grade railroad crossings.
Combined with SR 153 and I-75, these roads form a triangle that will ensure that there
are alternative routes available if at-grade railroad crossings become blocked for long
periods of time.
•
The Chattanooga regional travel demand model does not perform well for trucks in
the VW plant study area. The model does perform well in terms of total volumes in
the study area, but additional data is needed to estimate truck volumes. One
reasonable method is to take current truck counts and factor them up based on growth
rates. For this study, we used the truck growth rates in the regional travel demand
model to factor truck counts in the study area. Future analyses may want to consider
other methods of forecasting underlying truck volumes in the region. It should be
noted that the travel demand model was in the process of being updated as of the time
of the development of this report, so future versions of the model may perform better
for trucks than the current version.
Strategies and Recommendations
The findings described above lead to the following strategies for managing truck and rail
traffic in the area:
1. Direct newly generated truck traffic to I-75 to the maximum extent possible. One of
the primary benefits of the location of the Enterprise South facility is its location along
I-75. By directing trucks to use the northern exit from the facility, they will have direct
access to I-75 without crossing through neighborhoods, retail areas, or other types of
land uses. Using the southern exit from the facility would put the truck traffic on
Bonny Oaks Drive which would require traveling through neighborhoods and retail
areas to access either I-75 or SR 153. To enact this strategy, it will be important to meet
with local land use planners and zoning staff in several cities and counties in the
region along with other representatives of the business community including the
Chattanooga Chamber of Commerce, the Cleveland Chamber of Commerce, and the
commercial real estate brokers in the region.
2. Develop a preferred truck routing system in the study area. We recommend a local
truck route system that consists of I-75, Enterprise South Parkway, SR 58, SR 153, and
Bonny Oaks Drive. This road network provides two options to access I-75 to the north
and south of the facility. It also provides east-west connectivity via Bonny Oaks Drive.
SR 153 is a limited access facility that is designed to handle trucks. SR 58 provides a
4-2
connection north of the VW plant. The local truck route network would not include
other local roads such as Hickory Valley Road, Lee Road/U.S. 11/U.S. 64, Jersey Pike,
and the dozens of other collectors in the study area. These local roads should be left to
automobile traffic to the greatest extent possible.
3. Improve design and capacity of local roads located on this truck routing system.
Additional capacity is needed on Bonny Oaks Drive to handle the additional trucks
(and automobiles) which will need to access the VW facility. Bonny Oaks Drive is
currently a two-lane road for most of its span. Fortunately, the Chattanooga TPO
LRTP currently has this expansion in its Tier 1 project list. It would be ideal if this
expansion could be timed for completion before the VW plant opens. This expanded
roadway should be designed to be truck-friendly with wide turning radii, long yellow
phases in traffic signals, minimal need for weaving, and a median barrier for added
safety. Additional capacity is also needed on I-75. Currently, I-75 fluctuates between
four, six and eight lanes between I-24 and Cleveland, Tennessee; and it operates at
LOS F (during peak periods) throughout most of the study area. It is recommended to
expand I-75 to eight lanes from I-24 to the VW plant, and to expand I-75 to six lanes
from the VW plant to Cleveland, Tennessee (Exit 20). This will relieve congestion in
this corridor, encourage suppliers to locate along the interstate system, and encourage
trucks to use I-75 rather than local roads to the greatest extent possible. The current
LRTP incorporates capacity enhancements to I-75 in the form of HOV lanes between
I-24 and the VW plant, but no capacity enhancements between the VW plant and
Cleveland, Tennessee. SR 58 should also be considered for safety improvements such
as a median barrier to reduce the severity of accidents in the corridor.
4. Monitor traffic in the study area to confirm forecasted travel patterns, and adjust
strategies and recommendations as needed. This should be done a few months after
the plant has started operating and then once every roughly five years to ensure that
truck and auto travel patterns conform to the expectations.
5. Remain in contact with VW plant logistics team to confirm production rates, update
forecast growth rates, and identify changes in logistics strategies that would impact
travel patterns in the study area. This should occur with every update of the
Chattanooga TPO LRTP.
A list of the strategies along with the specific recommendations accompanying each of the
strategies is shown below in Table 4.1.
4-3
Table 4.1
Strategies and Recommendations for Managing Freight
Impact of VW Plant
Strategies
Recommendations
1. Direct new truck traffic to I-75
• Meet with local city and county land use planners, regional
Chambers of Commerce, Enterprise South representatives, and
commercial real estate brokers to present study results and
importance of coordinating with land use planning
2. Develop local truck route
system
• Consider I-75, Bonny Oaks Drive, and SR 153 to be local routes for
trucks in the region
• Direct trucks away from all local roads other than Bonny Oaks Drive
• Confirm with Enterprise South and Tennessee Trucking Association
• Develop local signage to direct trucks to designated routes
3. Improve local truck route
infrastructure
• Increase I-75 to 8 lanes from I-24 to Exit 12. Increase I-75 to 6 lanes
between Exit 12 and Exit 20 in Cleveland
• Incorporate truck-friendly design into Bonny Oaks Drive expansion
project
• Complete Bonny Oaks Drive expansion to 4 lanes in time for opening
of VW plant. Include median barrier in design to improve safety
• Consider median barrier and other safety improvements along SR 58
• Obtain needed ROW as soon as possible
4. Monitor traffic
• Conduct classification counts on local roadways in the study area
approximately six months after plant opens and every 5 years for 15
years.
5. Coordinate with VW
representatives
• Contact VW representatives during every LRTP update cycle to
update truck trip generation and distribution estimates
4-4
Appendix A
Assumptions and Sources for VW Freight Impact Model
Appendix A
Table A.1 Assumptions and Sources for VW Freight Impact Model
Parameter
Assumptions
Sources
Outgoing Movements (Finished Automobiles)
• 114,000 in 2011
• 173,000 by 2014
• 229,419 by 2035
• Volkswagen (2011-2014)
• Compound Annual Growth
Truck/Rail Mode Split
• 15% truck
• 85% rail
• Volkswagen
Trucks per Year
• 9 VW cars per loaded truck
• Volkswagen
Destinations of Trucks
by State
• Distribution of VW dealerships by state
• Volkswagen Owner
Highway Assignment
• Trucks use roadway with most direct
Annual Vehicle Production
Travel Companion
connection to destination (e.g., I-75, SR 58)
Trains per Year
Railroad Market Share
Rate (through 2035)
•
•
•
•
• Google Maps, analyst
assumptions
Tri-level autorack railcars
• CS Rail Analysts
15 automobile capacity per railcar
• Volkswagen
70 railcars per train
6,500-foot trains
• NS: 100%
• Hamilton County
Railroad Authority
Rail Line Assignment
• NS: 80% eastbound, 20% westbound
• Hamilton County
Railroad Authority
Annual to Daily Conversion
• 245 working days per year
• Volkswagen
Incoming Supplier Shipments
• 0%-20% of supplier shipments coming in by
• Volkswagen
truck
Value of Goods Produced
at Plant
• Factory output (annual number of cars)
Value of Commodity Inputs
• Value of automobile inputs per dollar of
• U.S. Bureau of Economic
industry output multiplied by value of
factory output
Analysis Input-Output
Accounts
Value to Weight
Conversion Factors
• Originating shipment weight by commodity
for Tennessee and neighboring states
• Calibrated to agree with VW estimates of
initial supplier truck volumes
• Volkswagen
multiplied by average value of a VW CC sedan
• 2002 U.S. Census
Commodity Flow Survey
• Ratio of VW estimate to
initial CS estimate
A-1
Table A.1 Assumptions and Sources for VW Freight Impact Model
(continued)
Parameter
Assumptions
Sources
Incoming Movements (Production Inputs)
Tons to Trucks Conversion
• 20 tons per truck
• CS research/analyst
assumptions
Highway Assignment for
Incoming Shipments
• Most likely route based on locations of
Empty Truck Trips
• For-hire trucks will be empty to pick up
preapproved VW suppliers
• Supplier map provided by
Chattanooga-Hamilton
County Regional Planning
Agency
• Standard industry practice
loads of cars
• Daily empty trucks same as daily outgoing
trucks carrying cars from the factory
Locations of For-Hire
Trucking Firms
• Used manufacturing employment by
Traffic Analysis Zone as proxy for location
of trucking firms
• CS research/analyst
assumptions
• TPO travel demand model
A-2

Chattanooga Volkswagen Plant Freight Impact Study

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