Status of Support for NFS Carbon Assessments

Research Support for National Forest
System Carbon Assessments
Rich Birdsey, Sean Healey, Chris Woodall, Alexa Dugan
Fangmin Zhang, Kevin McCullough, Coeli Hoover
Jim McCarter, Alex Hernandez
Thanks to Greg Kujawa for Introduction Slides
06 February 2014
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Project Purpose

Provide technical support to NFS units to meet
policy/business requirements simultaneously and
consistently:

Climate Change Performance Scorecard Element 9


To make measurable progress on Scorecard Element 9 (Carbon
Assessment and Stewardship); help units be able to answer “Yes”
2012 Planning Rule Directives

FSH 1909.12, 12.4 – Assessing Carbon
Changing Forests…Enduring Values
Purpose (cont.)

New Policies (cont.):

President’s Climate Action Plan


Cut Carbon Pollution - Reducing Other GHG Emissions
 Preserving the role of forests in mitigating climate change
E.O. - Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate
Change
 Sec 3. “…recognizing the many benefits the Nation's natural
infrastructure provides, agencies shall, where possible, focus
on program and policy adjustments that promote the dual
goals of greater climate resilience and carbon sequestration,
or other reductions to the sources of climate change.”
Changing Forests…Enduring Values
Application – Management Implications

Questions that may be informed by the
Assessment:
How is the (LMP) plan area playing a role in sequestering
and storing carbon?
 How have disturbances, projects, and activities
influenced carbon stocks in the past and may affect them
in the future?
 Are existing conditions and trends of forest vegetation
indicating the plan area is a carbon sink or carbon
source?

Changing Forests…Enduring Values
Application – Management Implications

Questions (continued):
Under existing plan guidance, what is the future trend of
the plan area in sequestering and storing carbon?
 Are there opportunities to change plan components to
influence these trends?

Changing Forests…Enduring Values
Project Deliverables
Standardized data sets and reports
Reports
Data
Phase 1
Part A.
• Baseline Forest Ecosystem Carbon Stocks
and Flux
• Harvested Wood Products (HWP) Pool
Part B. Disturbance History
Maps,
• Influence of wildfires, insect/disease mortality,
Reports,
timber harvest, reforestation, etc. (ForCAMF,
Other
Datasets
InTEC)
Phase 2
ForCaMF and InTEC will be moving towards customizable assessments.
Changing Forests…Enduring Values
NFS Carbon Assessments: Some
Challenging Technical Issues
• Ensure national consistency by harmonizing all methods
with FIA carbon stock and productivity estimates
• FIA standard techniques are evolving:
– CCT will reflect latest updates to methodology
– Consider updating “standard” carbon tables (Smith et al. “green
book”)
– FVS carbon calculator needs updating (need for ForCaMF)
– FIA-based input data sets to InTEC will be revised
• Need to harmonize biomass equations at different scales
• Attention to data management, standards, documentation,
and QA/QC
• All supported by peer-reviewed scientific and technical
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publications
Scorecard Element 9: “Does the Unit have a baseline assessment of carbon stocks and an
assessment of the influence of disturbance and management activities on these stocks?”
Stocks
CCT
Flows
FVS
FIA
ForCaMF
Climate,
Remote
Sensing
NFS/FPL
NFS activities
and veg. data
InTEC
FPL
research
PRESTO
8
Carbon Stocks of National Forests, Region 5
from FIA’s Carbon Calculation Tool (CCT)
9
Harvested Wood Products, Region 5
Annual timber product output
in the PSW Region, 1906 to
2012
Cumulative total carbon stored
in HWP manufactured from
PSW Region timber
From Keith Stockman
10
11
Preliminary ForCaMF Carbon Estimates for the Flathead NF, compared to CCT estimate
• Different scenarios are achieved by modifying the disturbance maps input into ForCaMF
• The “All disturbances” scenario is the actual estimate. Others quantify relative effects of
different disturbance processes.
• ForCaMF uses the same estimate of Live Tree Carbon (and distribution across the range)
as CCT – differences are <10% and are mostly due to differences between how CCT and
FVS model non-tree stocks
12
ForCaMF Results for Flathead NF, Region 6
13
Assessment of Climate, Harvest, and
Disturbance Impacts (InTEC Model)
14
Net Biome Production and Area Disturbed for
the Conterminous U.S., 1900 - 2009
15
InTEC Includes Soil C (Century Model)
16
Effects of Main Factors on Accumulated
NBP (kg C m-2, 1901-2010)
Accumulated NBP (Tg C)
CO2
4000
Nitrogen deposition
Climate variability
2000
0
1900
2000
Accumulated NBP (Tg C)
(a) South
Regrowth+disturbances
1920
1940 1960
Year
1980
2000
(c) Rocky Mountain
Accumulated NBP (Tg C)
Accumulated NBP (Tg C)
6000
1000
0
-1000
1900
1920
1940 1960
Year
1980
2000
6000
(b) North
4000
2000
0
1900
1920
2000
1940 1960
Year
1980
2000
1980
2000
(d) West Coast
1000
0
-1000
1900
1920
1940
1960
Year
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Effects of Disturbance and Climate on
Accumulated NBP (kg C m-2, 1901-2010)
Disturbance/regrowth
Climate
Accumulated NBP with age effects (kg C m-2 )
0
Accumulated NBP with climate effects (kg C m -2 )
-10
-5
-2
0
2
5
10
500 km
States
0
-10
-5
-2
0
2
5
10
500 km
States
0
0
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Projections for Different Climate Scenarios
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Some Key Datasets for Each NF (1)
• Forest types matched to FIA types
• Disturbance maps back to ~1985
– Insects, fire, harvest
– Magnitude of impact
• Harvesting history back to ~1900 from cut
and sold reports
• “Standard” estimates of carbon stocks from
FIA, for multiple dates where possible
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Some Key Datasets for Each NF (2)
•
•
•
•
Leaf area index
Productivity-age curves
Forest age map
Meteorological and atmospheric data
– Temperature, precipitation, radiation, etc.
• Soil characteristics
– Water holding capacity, depth, texture
• Land cover map
– Forest/rangeland/other
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NFS Carbon Assessments: Schedule and
Potential Pilot Study Forests
•
•
•
•
Chequamegon-Nicolet (R9)*
Region 1/Nez Perce-Clearwater
Region 8/Pisgah and Francis Marion
Region 5/Sierra-Sequoia (Proposed)
*Assessment completed before project began
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23
Northern Wisconsin Pilot Study:
Carbon Assessment Objectives
• Baseline assessment: describe past and current
carbon stocks in forests and wood products of
Northern Wisconsin, and changes in carbon stocks
• Strategic carbon management analysis: develop and
assess impacts of several mitigation scenarios
Ecoregion Province 212 (Northern
Wisconsin)
3 major owner groups:
National Forest
Other Public
Private
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Carbon Stocks by Ownership Class and Carbon
Pool, Northern Wisconsin Forests, 2009
(from FIA – Carbon Calculation Tool)
TgC
800
700
600
500
Biomass
400
Dead Wood
300
Forest Floor
Soil
200
100
0
National Forest
State and local
Private
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Average Annual Change in Carbon Stock by
Ownership, Northern Wisconsin Forests, 1990-2010
(from FIA – Carbon Calculation Tool)
0.8
TgC yr-1
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
1990-2000
0.3
2000-2009
0.2
0.1
0
National Forest
State and local
Private
Possible causes of declining rate of sequestration: increased
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harvesting, aging forests, and increasing disturbances
Change in C stocks of harvested wood products (in
use and landfills), Northern Wisconsin
(from PRESTO)
0.6
TgC yr-1
0.5
0.4
National Forest
Other Public
0.3
Private
0.2
All Owners
0.1
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
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Simple simulations by
combining age-class
distributions with
carbon yield curves
Histogram of 2007 Age Distribution
for Forest Service Lands
250,000
0 Yrs
1-10 Yrs
21-30 Yrs
200,000
31-40 Yrs
41-50 Yrs
150,000
41-50 Yrs
100,000
51-60 Yrs
61-70 Yrs
50,000
71-80 Yrs
81-90 Yrs
0
91-100 Yrs
101-125
Yrs
(Using ECOSUBCD 212 from the FIA data.)
Net ecosystem production
Histogram of 2007 Age Distribution
for State & Local Government Lands 0 Yrs
450,000
1-10 Yrs
400,000
21-30 Yrs
350,000
31-40 Yrs
300,000
41-50 Yrs
250,000
41-50 Yrs
200,000
51-60 Yrs
150,000
61-70 Yrs
100,000
71-80 Yrs
50,000
81-90 Yrs
0
91-100 Yrs
101-125
Yrs
(Using ECOSUBCD 212 from the FIA data.)
Histogram of 2007 Age Distribution
for Private Lands
1,400,000
50-year mitigation potential is
3.8 TgC per year
compared with current baseline
1.5 TgC per year
0 Yrs
1-10 Yrs
1,200,000
21-30 Yrs
1,000,000
31-40 Yrs
800,000
600,000
41-50 Yrs
41-50 Yrs
51-60 Yrs
400,000
61-70 Yrs
200,000
71-80 Yrs
0
81-90 Yrs
91-100 Yrs
101-125
Yrs
(Using ECOSUBCD 212 from the FIA data.)
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gC m-2 yr-1
Downscaling with InTEC:
Spatial and Temporal
Change in Carbon Stocks,
Northern Wisconsin and
Chequamegon-Nicolet
National Forest
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Total
NBP
InTEC Model (Zhang et al. 2012)
29
Potential NBP for the CNNF in the next 100 years
(Graphic from Tom Gower using Biome-BGC)
30
Predicted Future Land Use in Northern
Wisconsin by Scenario
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
Base_%Change
For1_%Change
20.00
For2_%Change
Native_%Change
0.00
crops
pasture
forest
urban
range
-20.00
-40.00
-60.00
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Status of Support for NFS Carbon Assessments
Technology or product
2013
2014
2015
1. Estimates of carbon stocks from FIA
(published or direct from data base)
2. Estimates of change in carbon stocks
from FIA (Carbon Calculation Tool)
3. Estimates of change in carbon stocks
in harvested wood (online calculators)
4. Assessment of management and
disturbance scenarios (ForCaMF)
5. Assessment of climate, harvest, and
disturbance impacts (InTEC)
6. Assessment of forest plans and
effects on future carbon stocks
7. Fully functional user-support system
including data sets and basic estimates
Pilot studies
Full deployment
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Summary/Outcomes: Fully Functional Usersupport System for NFS Carbon Assessments
• Basic datasets useful for many kinds of
analyses
– Consistent and comprehensive
• Estimates of past and prospective carbon
stocks for each National Forest
• Easily accessible
• Contacts for support in FS research and
universities
• Minimize time needed for resource analyses
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