Lucía González Díaz Córdoba, 2012
Transcription
Lucía González Díaz Córdoba, 2012
Lucía González Díaz Córdoba, 2012 TITULO: Desarrollo de modelos de dinámica en poblaciones espacialmente explícitos para el manejo integrado de malas hierbas anuales a diferentes escalas espaciales AUTOR: LUCIA GONZALEZ DIAZ © Edita: Servicio de Publicaciones de la Universidad de Córdoba. Campus de Rabanales Ctra. Nacional IV, Km. 396 A 14071 Córdoba www.uco.es/publicaciones publicaciones@uco.es ! # " $ $ & % % % # ! "#$" ! % ! & ' ) ' $ ' % ( & ' % ( ! * % # & )* + - $ % % ! , ) & ! " - / ! "#$" *) & -. 0 1 " # ! 2 # $ 23 + , ! & ) * && '9 ( 5 " 0 & ! % 4 & 6 % % 5 2 - .& ! $ 257 5 2 8* ) ' & ! 4 & ) - & & ' .0 & - ) ' .& ) & ! ! / -1 & 2 ! *) &"* 34 ) % 2 -2 # 6 7 . 8 ! 9, . -& ) ' ! 7 ! ' 0& ! &. ' & 6 &, 4 & & ' ' ; ! 1 ' & $< & ! 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i - j - 1)# C- .1 - .- - # - 7 Nl,t[i, j] 7 - ,,'2 G "" <97 9 7 - # 0 sl - (t l P _<D G < 7 9 - - " ! 7 G - l "" 1) - - #; 2 - - t - L # t 7 - 7 G " 7 - gl 7 (t G - tG [i, j] 3 N t [i, j ] = sl g l N l ,t [i, j ] . 2 l =1 T 7 Rl,t[i, j] - l - j] t# C- Rl ,t [i, j ] = sl (1 − g l )N l , t [i, j ] G t - 7 " G- " - - "" 3 .l" 3 9 G - D - - - G7 - .t + 12# ; 7 " [i, - v S St [i, j ] = vN t [i, j ] 0 7 " - . 79 f - 7 5 6 9E T G " 7 .<2 7 " a - a &++I2 fSt [i, j ] 1 + aSt [i, j ] 79 7 G - 90 3 G - 9 0 .&2 # CTt [i, j ] = C- 3 7 .# # " " G - # 7 - " 72 N(+#<I +#+&')# C- G E L - 90 5 6 9 .&++I2# C- ." 2 - G ./ 3G 7 7 ;S - C 2 Q - 7 ` xP & < I# %!# < G Tt [i, j ] = " &++'2# C- "" 7 c3 f - ( c4 . C 5 > G .I2 G 7 7 .> 90 " ,,(2# : 5 90 5 &++ID .%! G G - G G- - # &++ 2# C- 7 # 9/ 3 - G 7 .H 3 .H - - + ` cx (1 − c1 )(1 − c2 )(1 − c3 )(1 − c4 ) fSt [i, j ] 1 + aSt [i, j ](1 − c1 )(1 − c2 ) G 90 2 G- - # &++,2# 2. c2 . 7 c1 1 - - ,,<D 90 5 > 7 ,,(D ,,,2 1 − exp( − d / 2 ) 1 − exp( −5d / 2 ) T- d - C- 3 7 # G - - & " (r # - .(2 - 1/6r &) " . - #T - r - 7 6r - 3 &2# % - # C- - 7 exp[−(2r − 1)d / 2] − exp[−(2r + 1)d / 2] 1 − exp(−5d / 2) CG- - G7 "" G - t - " - R0,t[i, j] L Rl,t[i, j] G - l P + _ < G - 9" " [i, j] . 2 7 3 7 " #> 7 90 5 . ,,<2 - - " P + ### < #T - 7 - 5 Rl,t[i, j], l 7 - G G - .> 7 + 90 5 ,,<2# 4))"5 9(, -(/,)0#0#($ +!85/(")* 9 G - -7 Yt [i, j ] = Y0,t [i, j ] 1 − C- 7 .L Q " 7 " 2 7 - " 3 : - - 7 77 G 7 2 7 N(&I++ &,<). C- " 2 Y0 .L Q 7 Y G- G G - .'2 G -G 7 ,4(2 kSt [i, j ] 1+ (k / b)S t [i, j ] # Y0 " 7 . / ./0 10/0 &++,2# C7 - -G ./ 3G - k - b 3 # -($(/#- +!85/(")* C- G . " " - > ,,&2# O 1 .NR =Q 2 7 NRt [i, j ] = Yt [i, j ]P − FC − HD − HA T.=Q 2 P " 7 FC .=Q C- - - 7 HD =QL # C" 7# C- HA - 3 - G 2# " - 9 .n 7 2 7 . ,,<2# C- 0 .42 O h 1 .ANR =Q 90 2 " 7 - 5 6 G 9E 3 G- n ANR[i, j ] = 1 NRt [i, j ](1 + h) − t h t =1 .,2 1 − (1 + h) − t (")* , 9 /)0)9+ $" #$#0# * -($"#0#($+ / " G G - .C " 3 " - " - G . - " 7 7 G2# C- L " 7 " - - - 2# C- .: 2 . ! G # &++,2# C- - - &++'2 - . ++ ^ ++ L 7 - # G ,,'D L # # $ :)/)$0 +09 0):#)+ " G 6 9E .C &++ID H - # &++4D " .> ,, D 5 5 &++,2# G " 7 " 7 90 C 7 - &2 .C 7 # 7 G - # " " 7 3 G ,,'2 SI = Dmax − Dmin T- - Dmax .# # L ! " 3 #0 " " 7 " 7 " " # C3 - G # G G " 3 - - - # C- C ANR2 G- " " 3 ! Dmin - SI - - . +2 - " " - 8*) / " 3 . - L " " @ sl 90 90 90 : L @ gl 90 90 90 : "" @v 6 7. Q 2@ f " #$ +#,< +#& +# & +#,I +#<( 999 +#,& +#&+ 999 +# I +# I + +#4+ +#4+ 999 +#<I +#<I 999 6 9E # .&+++2 +#' ,<( +#,( &(+ +# ' ' 6 9E # .&+++2 )?)9)$-)+ - E 1 : 90 5 .&++I2 9E 6 9 9 .&+++2 #( + +#+ H # .&++ 2 + +#,,' + + +#,,( 90 5 .&++I2 6 9 E @ c2 @ c3 +#,+ +#'+ +#,, +#'' +# + +#I' 9 @ c2 @ c3 +#4+ +#I+ +#,& +#I +#II +#&& 90 5 .&++I2 9E . ,, 2 6 E 6 C +#(+ +#4+ + @ c1 77 G7 9H 96 ? @ c2 96 * *1 9? * *1 ? - > > c3 @ c4 k b 7 .=QL 2@ P 63 .=Q- 2@ FC 9O 9? ? 7 .=Q- 2@ HA ? .=Q- 2@ HD 0 # .&++ 2 90 5 6 .&++I2 # . ,,'2 @d H - R E 6 > 2# O # ) $ : 3 @h E # . ,,42 90 5 6 .&++I2 # .&++42 ? . ,,'2 +#++( +#,( +#++4< +#++ , +#', +# +#& +# < /0 10/0 .&++,2 < ' <(< 4#I <( <4' 4#4 &4 < ' '#,4 0 0 0 I 0 H 1 ? <4 +#+( <, ! 9 # .&++<2 / .&++ 2 .&++,2 / .&++ 2 # .&++,2 # .&++ 2 : .&++,2 8*) # / # 889)F# 0#($+ ;O T ? ? @ @@ 79 61? ?1? 1;C ?:1 Ga ? ? .- ? . 2U- U- U. U. U.U.2U- - a CG 97 -# C- /> />& />< />I />( /> />' 2 2U- 2 2U- - -G G 7 - 7 - # " &++ 2# C# .&++ 2# H > b+ 7 G " - G ^& & ++ &++& + C- - - T G - 8 @ # 7 ,4,D : :! " " - G G - 1 ,,(D / " .1/: 2 c2 P +#II c3 .> ) # " - &++& # @ "# ,, 2# C- P +# C 7 G 2# " 2T &++4D / &# +#( ^ +#( . " - - G - . 9 7 G ^ + - # 7 H G- &++<2 G 3 P +#&& G 9/ 7 .&++ G- .H - > b+I2 7 : - > b+& > b+< & - - / / G G O ! - 8 # r2 7 7 - - 3 ,, D > ) 7 >) - " .T # &++42# T # .&++42 - - 1 - C- S .$2 .> # ,,42 G- # C- " 3 - 2 $ . $ . @ 2 &2 C - G "9: G 3 "S - " - 2# G- - - " .K <2 : " .0 7 G # &++(2# H ! - " Q C- " " G "# G G- " " - G > b+< G - - " - 7 7 # - .6 # 2# C- r2 - - 7 > b+ - G #: - " - " # " ,+9I++ -#0 - G - G - # &++,2# G - - G G- Y - . @ $ " - - G - - - " " " - - G " +#'(9+#4,# C- 3 " G - G 7 - " G 3 - 7 - # G -7 - P G G - C- 1/: 3 - P+G 7 G - - " " .C G 3 7 > b+ - -7 G G - - - " > b+< G- - - - $ # +#<<# <2# C- - # - G > b+I - <2# - > b+& G .C - > b+& .C <2 " C- - 79 - - G- G " > b+< > b+I " .6 # 2# 6.00 12.00 Plot_01 Plot_02 5.00 4.00 8.00 Observed Observed 10.00 6.00 3.00 2.00 4.00 Obs = 0.70 + 0.86 Pre 2.00 Obs = 0.01 + 1 Pre 1.00 2 r2 = 0.87 *** r = 0.75 *** 0.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 Plot_03 6.00 Plot_04 6.00 5.00 Observed 5.00 Observed 4.00 Predicted Predicted 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 Obs = -0.52 + 1.44 Pre 1.00 r2 = 0.89 *** 0.00 0.00 3.00 2.00 Obs = -0.41 + 1.31 Pre 1.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 r2 = 0.80 *** 0.00 0.00 7.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Predicted 2#:!9) ; " "# G - - Pre 8*) G- > 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Predicted # C- @ # T- 7 - - Obs " G- - # - - > b+& > b+< > b+I2# C- C- S $ .$ 7$ .> b+ 2 1/: G G- # *(0V> +#4 aa +#'<aa *(,) $0)9-),0 8# + AWB +*(,) AWB )99(9 AWB *(0V> +#+ O: +#++& + +#,,4 +#<<+ 8 O: ≥ +#+( 1/: @ 1 - a c +#+( / :! *(0V> #< aaa 9+#I aa O: aa c +#+ " aaa c +#++ # # " - - G - Y C- *(0V>1 #IIaaa 9+#(&aa "9: G" # - .> b+ . > b+&2 7 - G 2# C- > b+ - > b+& - - G G G - G .6 # &2 - " - > b+& G G - G - - " - " - - .6 # &2# 4 Plot_01 2 3 1 2 0 -1 -2 Plot_02 1 0 -1 -3 8 6 -4 10 8 4 6 12 10 -2 X -3 8 4 2 0 6 10 2 Y 6 > b+I - Residuals Residuals 3 .6 # &2# C- > b+< 6 4 0 2 2 Y 4 Plot_03 X 4 8 12 10 0 0 Plot_04 5 3 3 Residuals Residuals 4 2 1 2 1 0 0 -1 8 6 -2 10 8 4 6 8 4 2 0 6 -1 X 10 2 Y 2#:!9) 12 10 - .> b+ .C 2 0 X 0 > b+& > b+< - G 9 4 2 Y 1 - 6 0 C- 4 8 12 10 L > b+I2# - I2# +))" 8 $; ")$+#0 L ! <'(4 7 G - 7 />'2 .C ! I2# - 7 7 #0 7 .C - - Q 5 G & 3 . '<& Q I2# C- - - 7 7 7 - 79 G2 4' . 7 8*) 1 L " ! 7 7 # +))" 8 $; A ))"+X-)** ) 9B <'(4 T ? ? @ @- 9H 96 ? - - 9*) #)*"a A;:X@ ) 9B <,' $$! *#=)" $)0 9)0!9$a AYX@ B 9(&I +I4 && 4 &+ ( <I, 9'& 9&&( <<&I &II4 4'( ( + + I 9& & 9( < +4, '&( 9&&& 7 G '(I ( & '&( + 9<+( 7 G + I , & &+I' + 7 G I,& (+( & ,I + 9, 7 G &+<4 '+ (< + 9, 7 G +(( ,,( I4< ''( + &&+I 9 < 7 G d /> />& 9H 96 />< 9H 96 />I 9H 96 />( 9H 96 /> 9H 96 />' aO - - " d /> .? .H 79 G />& .H U- 2 />I .H 79 U- - G U- 79 79 - 2 />' .? 7 .'<& (+ 7 C 2 />< U- 2 /> .H 79 U- G U- 2# - - 9 Q U- - U- - #O 7 G G " - 9 &< # U- - 2 />( .H - - 9I, Q Q . ,, 2 2 GG- - I+ - " 2# C- G - - - " 7 7G Q & G G - . +I4 # C- " - G 7 - G - - # C- G 7 .C T - />I . 2 - G - G G G G - 7 7 U .C - - - - U 79 ! G 2 - G 2 .C .- - - - 7 79 2 /> /> .- G G I2# C- - - U - - />& . U # G 79 - U - - 7 />< . 2 6 79 7 79 G />' .- - 2 - G I2# - - C- 79 - U U - 9 .C - I2# 7 U - - 2 />( . 7 - U I2# 9(, #)*" O 7 7 : .C I2# 4< &I++ L Q- .C 2 ! " 77 G - - - - - G />' />I .C - 7 G 7 7 7 9 - - " .C 3 " - - - 7 # C- 0 - " - G - I2# 7 G I2# C- 7 G # C- " - " />& G - '+ - 7 4 - # $$! *#=)" $)0 9)0!9$ C- G " - # C- 7 />< .C # - - - - .- - />&2 - - " 72 G G -- G - I2# 0 =Q- G G .9( < =Q- 7 G - G /> .- 9& & =Q- - ! 9<+( # % - U- - 2 - - - G- - - .C - . /> 2 G - . - C- " 7 7 G U- - 72 .C - " I2# C@ />< 9 " - 7 />I# - 3 7 61? ?:1 /> 9 />I "" G # .C - .C 7 .C 72 G />&# 6 7 G - /><9 />' - G - (2# " 7 - - G (2# C- - - (2# ANR G 3 7 7 61? ?1? /> - - .# # "" - 7G L G - 0 " (2# C- />' /> - G .C ?1? 1;C />( />' G G " " 7 7 G - /> />( G - - " 77 G G - - 9 < =Q- # : G " G - - I2# @ 1;C ?:1 - ANR G .C ;O# 6 - (2# 1 T - " 7" - 3 - G - - G G- G G - - G - 7 3 7 # - - > b+ " G- - 7 G- 7 .> b+&2 - # C- > b+I - G - G G " " G- G - " - > b+I - - > b+< - 7- " # G - G 2# ; " > b+< 7 7 " . - - > b+I# C- G - G- # - ! " > b+ " 7 G - GG - - " " 7 - " G G- - - 7 : - " 7 />' .? - - U- - a ;O .G - % C- i 9 ANR .=Q- 2 > $ 7 f 9: L 9 ANR .=Q- 2 9: L 9 ANR .=Q- 2 "" 9: L 9 ANR .=Q- 2 6 : d s 7 g G 9&<' >>% 5 16 9 + <+ 9<+< 9 I(4 9 < '4 9 7# 2 />( .H 79 U- - />& .H 2 61? .- v " L "" 9: L 9 ANR .=Q- 2 : L 9: L 9 ANR .=Q- 2 : 8*) 79 9& <.> 9<< 2# G U- - < 9 ( 9&4 94& 9 (I I, 9 2 ?1? .- - 9 <4 I&4 9 <+ 9 4 <+& 9 <& 9< 4 94& &' 9 + 2 U- SI < - 79 2 1;C . 9&,I &(+< 5 >< &I 9 <+ 9< 9'&< 9 & <, 9 4 2 />< .H - 7# 9 4+ 1 5 (' 9 I& 9&+, 9 +( 9 I ', 9 ' - 2 /> .H G 79 9&&+ I'+ 9&&< 9 4 ( 9& 9<4+ 9 &' &( 9 I - . G < 9 <I < 79 U- 9 ,& &II 9& + 5 9< < 9 << (+ 9 ' Z G ! U- 2 ?:1 .- - 9'+ I' 9(' & 9 &44 9 I 9 , 9(< I< 9' L 2 />I .H 9(I '(I 9< & + &(, 9I, 4+ 9I <+ 9 1 - 79 G 6 9 ( 9, & 9 ( 9I< 9 +I 9 +, 94 <, 9 & U- - 2 /> .? 9 <+ .1> 9 &I <' 9 '& 9 &4 9<+ 9,I + 9 < 72 U- - 9,+ 6% 9'+ , 9 <++ 94 9,4 9(( 9' % 2 U .ANR2 % C- />' .? - - U- - a ;O .G - $ 9: L 9 ANR .=Q- 2 2 61? .- 79 G 2 />( .H U- - />& .H " c HD + HA 9 ANR .=Q- 2 9 ,< 63 FC 9 ANR .=Q- 2 ? '( 7 P 9 ANR .=Q- 2 H 9 & b 9 ANR .=Q- 2 > 8*) 2# 79 G U- - 2 ?1? .- - 5 .%< I(' 9,, 9 ,< 166 9( 2 U- 9,,& 1 % 9(& 9 ,< < < 9<& 9 ,< &+' 9 +I - 79 2 1;C . 5 > 4' 2 />< .H - 7# 9' &+ 9 &+ ( 9(< 2 /> .H G 79 G 5 .<6 1. 9(& 9 ,< I ( 9 ( 79 U- 5 <. , 5 > > &< 9 9 &+ <% 9& G U- 2 ?:1 .- - 9 &+ + 9I' Z 2 />I .H 5 1 &+( 9 9 &+ > 9 1 - 79 G 5 .>> & , 9<& 9 &+ % 9 U- - 2 /> .? 9& <' 6 9<& 9 &+ &(' 9 + 6 U- - 9II, &II 9,, 9 ,< 1< 9& % 2 U G - 7 7 ! - G- - 3 " 7 - - - - 7 - - G- G ! L7 - 7 7 - - - G- # C- 9/ # .&++ 2 &2 . ++ - G - G G - 7 . ,,<2 - G- - G - - - " " 7 L . ,,42 " 7 - C II++ #; .&++I2 3 GG 7 " 7 90 3 - 5 5 - 6 C - " L 3 3 />' G - - - G " . # # />< />I />( - - " - - # # T 9 - 7 - .&++,2 7 9 - G " - - 9E G - - #6 7 - - " - 7G 7 7 # - G " 9 7# C- # .&++<2 G - - 7 7 & G - - - ! Q 9 7 S . ,, 2 &+++ C- 7 - 7 ! - G 7 - 3 G# 0 7 # G " - # - 7 7 - - - - " - - L - # C- 3 - - - - G " 7 7 7G - G- " > b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'. 4. 4. ,. ,. / 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 & T: T: :T :T TT:: TT:: :TT: :TT: :: TT TT :: ::TT ::TT T::T T::T (,!* 0#($ /(")* C- L G - i ∈ {1,...,V } " - t j ∈ {1,...,V } # C" - f( )( t # # 7 M t [i, j ] = N t [i, j ] f ( N t [i, j ]) G - 7 N t [i, j ] G / . 2 # . ,4,2 # # f ( N t [i, j ]) = g (1 − cx )(1 + agN t [i, j ]) G - x = {W, S, L} −b .&2 G -g - - " cx - b .C <2# - 3 G - .0 # 7 7 .6 G # G G - ,, 2# G - 7 - G,4I2# / " '( G - # # #T G- G 7 / .6 . 7 ; G O " 2 7 9 F 72 7 G . 7 cx G- - 7 9 . 7 ,4I2 - G A - - G B G S / G G- - G G- 7 "" ,,(2# C- G cW = 0 G.C G # -2 # : - 7 G 9E 9 . - G - - G x ; 9 9E " a G 3 7 - 3 7 - 7 - - " " 7 6 - 3 9E # . ,4I2 <2# 0 9 G - G- - dx 7 G " - ! 7 G % +2# C- - - - % # - - .:- " G G- .: &++(2# H 5 - - 3 # C- G " L - 7 I[i, j] " 7 L sN G - s N t +1[i, j ] = M t [i, j ] − Et [i, j ] + I t [i, j ] + sN t [i, j ] G - E[i, j] dS # d L # # # dW P + dW P +#+ I G "" G - G - G ,,(2 - 3 7 . # # dW ) + " 0 7 &++ID :- .: - - Y - G dW P +# & " # 7 &++(2 O " G- - " # .<2 - 8*) > " G /8(*+ # *!)+ $#0+ +#&(a g > G- 7 <&# (d : > a > b d : "" s +# (a cW + cS +#,,e 9 cL +#,<f 9 T- dW +D +#+ IgD +# &aa dS + dL + Q +#++Id G 9 T9: G : 9: G 9 a L "" / .: - 0 # ,,(2# d> 90 G 5 6 9E . ,,<2 G 7# e C- G L 3 G 7 G9 " L C7 " G fO g: 7 " G # D ,4I2 2 .: 3 # 6 - G - 7 - G 7 I97 G 7 " Y - &++I2 G- - - # 9E G L " 7 . .:. 7 " " # 6 9 # - - G 7 .6 Nt+1 - - Nt+1 - &9 L - 7 - - - ++ aa : " - ,4I2 7 Nt+1=Nt g(1-cS)(1+agNt) +sNt G - Nt Nt+1=Nt g(1-cL)(1+agNt) +sNt G - Nt # G- - -b ,4I2 G -b 9E 7 E " L 6 G 7 7 cS G " 7. # G G G # . ,4I2# CG -7 G - " 7# : ! 3 G 9G 9E " G 7 - 7 6 G 7 G9G 3 G % &++(2# - 2 - . # 7 C- G - / %3 L 7G G G - ,4,2 # # - G . + " H # 6 - G & Q G K 7 " I #/ G - " " - - - ! " > - " # - .Nt+1[i, j]2 G G - .: - - " 7 &2 Q # C " 7 ! " 90 " " 5 . ,,<2 G - - N t +1[i, j ] = floor(N t +1[i, j ] + U ) = N t +1[i, j ] + U G - U G 7 N̂ G ! + .I2 # C- 9G " 7 V Nˆ = V N t +1 [i, j ] V − 2 .(2 i =1 j =1 C- 9 L 7 - " G &++ 2# H - - - " 7 C- # CG L &7 k =1 7 @ Nˆ k . 2 p 7 - 9 - G - - G- p N= - - " p - - . G C- 7 3 " N G G - ! 7 - G - - 9 - # - - - 7 # 9 % 6 G- 7 - G - - " - - L 3 - G 9 - " " ++ 7 9 - - G7 .6 # 2 " 7 . - G 2# 6 # C- G .6 # G - 2 - 3 - ! " 7 - - G - G " 7 .6 # 2# 2 2 4500 2100 No dispersal Low dispersal High dispersal 4000 3500 No dispersal Low dispersal High dispersal 1800 Ν (seeds/m2) Ν (seeds/m2) 1500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1200 900 600 1000 300 500 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 Years of simulation 2#:!9) 50 60 70 80 90 100 7 7 G 7 . dW P +#+ ID - : 2 - - dW P +# &2 9 2 - 7 G 9 :'# 5 5 1 56 - . :& : : I2 G- - " 7 7 - 7 " 9 .C 9 I G G G (2# C- ! - G .C " I (2# ; " 7 - 7 - - 7 - .C 9 " " " 7 G #: 3 40 Years of simulation / dW = +D 6 30 " 3 . 7 I 1 - (2# C- G- - 3 &. 2 G-7 (. 294. 22# : L 7 " - 7 G- - - G . - - G 2# ! G G .C G - - G- I (2# O G G - - - - G " .C " G G ID :&2 - I2# 6 .C (2# ? G " - - G 2# ;" & 7 G " 9 G- - - 1 - 4G - .dW P +# &2 1 - I - 1 - 9 # G .dW P +#+ 42 < I 1 4# 6 G- - # %! - - - 1 - G .C 3 . 1 " " , " 7 : & 6 # & " G- - ! G 7 7 - - " . 2 7 .C I (2# 1 - 4 7 1 # # 1 ' - G - - G - - .C (2# / 7 L 7 - " - G G - - G G 7 G - " G- G 7 ( 7 G " G - - I 1 - G G - - .C G - < - - - 3 7 (2# C " " - - # Z G- - G G - G G- G - - G - 7 - - " G- G- ' 4# C- :, G : <. - G 2# : I G - G G- G G - G L G # CG- - - 1 G - - - G - 7 ! 7 : + - -- - - - " 7 9 :4 : G - a :% &. 2 / &9 . 8*) 1 / 7 R /,*)D E@) 0 + #$#-# * -9(,+ TTTT T:T: TT:: ! 2# & G 9 - " I' I(& I(& &I + +a >> 1 + .c I'< II4 > <+I I(& I & I ( , < >> 1 &<&4 ,(( &+,, > > - > G 2# &2 T.&( 2D :.'( 2 G- Q T.+ 2D :. ++ 2 " . < & I(& I&&4 > '+& (I& I&&' >> 1 + &( , & I&+( > #+,)9+ * ?9 -0#($ AdWB I&+ I(& <I > I ( , <I+ >> 1 &<<+ ,(( <&+ > $"+- ,) +-)$ 9#( A B 1 T.(+ 2D :.(+ 2 T.'( 2D :.&( 2 I'' I(& 4I( > I' I(& 4I(I >> 1 I'< II4 4II( > 6 T. ++ 2D :.+ 2 8*) / ! . Q &2 - - 9 &9 I . G- G 7 " 2# $"+- ,) +-)$ 9#( A B 1 T.<< 2D :.<< 2D .<< 2 / & R /,*)D E@) 0 + #$#0# * -9(, > >> 1 > TTTTTT &4 4a &4<I T. + 2D :.&+ 2D .&+ 2 T. ++ 2D :.+ 2D .+ 2 #+,)9+ * ?9 -0#($ AdWB > >> 1 > > >> 1 > &4 & ( <' ( (+ ( 4I( 4I(( 4II( &, &(4 &(4 &(' '< < T: T: &(4 <+, 'I+ &(4 I T :T : 'I , I+& 'I (. 2 TT:: &'< (,4 (++ . 2 TT: : & I&+ &I '. 2 TT :: ( <<I <+< 4. 2 TT :: &< &(' + I ,. 2 T::T && &'4 I' - " a :% .c &I ,+ << 'I 'I <+ (<< &' <<4 <<4 << &< <'( ,,4 & & & + '( &,< +<+ ,< ,< ,& I< &&4 '4< < < < & ( (I& && && && &&( 2# 1200 Rotation 3 Rotation 4 Rotation 8 Rotation 9 Ν (seeds/m2) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 Seed dispersal fraction 2#:!9) %! - G - 9 5 D .A BD 2 7 G G - < I 4 , : &2 5 .A8B " " - .# # 1 9 dW # - 6 G - D 6D 1 G - 9 G .C " - < I2# 0 :& . :& 7 - : 9 L : 2 - 7 G - ! .6 # < 2# 6 : I - - " " - G - . - - - G 2# 6 - 9 7 G - - . 2 .6 # < 2# . : I2# ")$+#0#)+ A+))"+X/ B 8 -9(,,#$: ) 9 T:T: 1% a 1 . &. 2 TT:: <% 1 < T: T: I T :T : (. 2 TT:: 1 6 % . < > &I'( I&4 &I'( I&4 &I'( I&4 &I'( I&4 4& <( ,'( I ' (', 1 6. %< 6 %6 (', >1 %% < <+I 1 6 < . 2 TT: : 1 > % '. 2 TT :: .% 6 6 4. 2 TT :: 6 1%1 ,. 2 T::T %> . - 9 - - R /,*)D E@) 0 + #$#0# * -9(, - G - :, - G " % - G dW P +#+ I G - 4 8*) 6 %! $ (2# 0 7 1 G G - :4 :, :, G - 7 . 2 4 .C " 7 1 9 7 - ,'( I I " <( '' <, <+I '' <, <+I '' <, 6 . % & I<< & & ( <4 &' > %. . I + ' ,< &+ '4 4 4' ( <& 4 ( . & I'I &(& ( << 4 <1 '+ <4 < &I& I ,I 1 - 4& (', 16 - a :% I ' 6. - &I'( I&4 " .c ' # 2# 1 / - " - G G #1 - ! G - G - 7 - - - 7 G 7 - G- " # G G " 7 - ! - " - G " 7# C- - G - - G G 7 - " 3- G # C- - - - 3 - 2 2 500 3000 Rotation 8 (a) Rotation 8 (b) Landscape scenario 2 Landscape scenario 6 400 Ν (seeds/m2) Ν (seeds/m2) 2500 2000 1500 1000 300 200 100 500 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 50 20 40 2#:!9) :- 9 7 - 2 C- 7 60 80 100 120 140 Years of simulation Years of simulation 9 - - G 1 4 # 21 G :& : # :,# 1 / " - - - G- G - " 3 : " G 7 79: - " - G G / " # - - L " G ! G - # 7 G- " - ,,'2# ; - - " G # &+ +2# 6 G - .CG L- / - G - 7 &++(2 - G " - 7G ./ - .C- G # / G - - - G - - % - 79: 7 7 - - . ,,'2 - " " 7 - - / 2# 0 G G- - # C- #? G " .6 # G - - - # . ,4,2 - G - - -- G - - 9 79: - ,,'2 " - 3 7 - - G- - - " L - - - " - " - " .:- G 7 " - G 7#0 - - .H " &++'2 G / 79: - ,,'2 C- G - 9 G LG - - 7 G- G - " ! 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O% &+ +2@ G 97 - GG (0 * ?#)*" +#=) A@ B )9) * -9(,+ AWB !$?*(E)9 -9(,+ AWB & 'I '' +4 (, (' ( '< & I4 <+4 I4 (,+ 4(( ( & (, < 4, 44 , ', 4 '' '4 '' & < & , &< && &< 3 3& &3& &3< &3( <3( <3, ,3, & I ' 4 !/8)9 (? ?#)*"+ G - - 0 G # #: G G G 7 9 G G - G - # C- - I& " .C #0 2# G (4 G 9 G K 2#:!9) 0 3 - 9 7 " 9 G G - #H - # #> G 9 - G " - - - 9 - 6 # &# (,!* 0#($ " $ /#- +!85/(")* C- 7 3 9 7 # CG- 7 - ! - 7 7A G G .aA2 C- G 7 - - G - G 7 7 7 " # C- - G - G # C- 7 - G 7 - G 9 - - - 9 5 a # # 0 - " - - 7 7 7 @ - 7 .aa2 .AA2# 9 G 7 # : " 7 - .6 # &2# 3 " K harvester ppo qpo k s SL g1·c1 SB1 t1 SC SB1 1-m1 SB1 SB2 SB2 SB2 1-m2 SB2 SB3 SB3 SB3 1-m3 SB3 t2 t2 SB3 CG t3 SB2 t1 t1 SB1 SB1 ES SR f g2·c2 g3·c2 CCG t2 t2 SB2 10 cm SB1 1-d t1 AD v g1·c2 g2·c1 g3·c1 5 cm h IS SB3 20 cm 2#:!9) / - G 7 L # C- L SB L G 9 - SC - - - - "" G G "" G - "" L 7 C- -9 7 .SBini2 ? ! 7 - " CG - G - 7 qpo# C- - t 7 m - L d h - 7 f# - # 0 - 7 ( .F 7 L # 7 - - ! # C- + - G G - - 7 ! ,, 2 pini# - 7 F 7 7 - L 7 G 0 3 7 - - - 79T - c - L + G- - "" ( - " 7 - - k K# &# # # # : SR# ; - ppo s 3 v - 7 - - - - - CCG( - G - g 9 - - " 7 7 - ! -9 - - G - 9 - G AD ES - G IS G " SL - - - " - - 0 G 7 G # 0 G - G L -9 G - - K " - G - G - " 71 - # .&++&2# C- 7 " - .SB1 SB2 SB32 - 7 C- " - - G G- 7 7 - .SL2 - - - .AD2 - t 7 7 " , y G - " . - G 7 . xx G - " aa aA C- 2G - G - 7 - G " 7 7 t2 . AA2# - - 3 - 7 .SR2# [i, j] Z ty,xx [i, j ] = (SR[i, j ], AD[i, j ], SL[i, j ], SB1 [i, j ], SB2 [i, j ], SB3 [i, j ]) y,xx - L Z1t ,xx - Z t9−, 1xx # " 1 [i, j ] Z1t ,xx [i, j ] = Z 9t −, xx C- 3- G 7 " - n G- - G G 7 & # C- <G - 3 G- - 3T 3 - 7 G -" - 9 0 G " 7 .> - 7 " 7# " #0 - G # C- - & 0 - 7 Tl,n G - l - - . 2 - - - - - - - G - 9C 7 91 - " " G &++ 2 Z t2, xx [i, j ] = T1n ⋅ Z1t ,xx [i, j ] 0 0 0 G - T1n = 0 0 " 0 0 0 0 0 .&2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 t111, n 0 t112, n 0 0 0 t121, n t122, n 0 0 0 t131, n t132, n 0 0 0 t113, n t133, n t133, n K C- 3 " 3 t1 # # t132 ! - : " - - 7 < - - 7 & # - - G 5 7 " G 7 L " 7 - 7- " 7 7 - 7- " .H # &++,2# C- G " 7 - - d 3 D# Z 3t ,xx [i, j ] = D ⋅ Z t2 ,xx [i, j ] G - D= 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1− d 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 - - G G - G .C ,, 2# ? : " - - 7 G G - G 7 - - " - G - # 7 " G L .<2 G - 3 G .> 9C - G91 &++ 2# C- G ( ) Z t4 ,xx [i, j ] = T2 n ⋅ G1 ⋅ Zt3 ,xx [i, j ] 0 0 0 G - T2 n = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 s 2n 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 t 211, n t 212, n 0 0 0 t 221, n t 2 22, n 0 0 0 t 231, n t 232, n t 213, n t 233, n t 233, n .I2 K 0 0 0 G1 = 0 0 0 C- - " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 g1c1 g 2c1 g 3c1 0 1 − g1c1 0 0 0 0 1 − g 2c1 0 0 0 0 1 − g 3c1 L - - 3 G1 . - .gc12# C7 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 " - 7 g. 7 - - 3 2 7 - 3 7 - 7 .1- gc12 7 2 c1 G - s2 - "" - # 0 G - " ./ - - # &+ +D F 89/ G -G : - C- G - 7- " L - 7 # G 7 CCG G - " 2# C- - G G - &+ # C- " - 3 G- - " - 7 CCG tn−, 1xx [i, j ] = (0,0,0, CCGn, xx [i, j ],0,0 )n , xx t −1 Z 5t ,xx [i, j ] = Z t4, xx [i, j ] + CCG tn−,1xx [i, j ] ; - G - &- - - 7 Hn . 3 9 "" 7 - G - - D G - G L " "" ( - ) Z 6t ,xx [i, j ] = T3n ⋅ H n ⋅ G 2 ⋅ Z t5 ,xx [i, j ] 0 0 0 0 0 s 3n 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - # C- 9 2# C- 0 0 0 G - T3n = 0 0 - - .(2 0 0 0 t 311, n t 312, n 0 0 0 t 321, n t 322, n 0 0 0 t 331, n t 332, n t 313, n t 333, n t 333, n - 3 . 2 K 0 0 0 0 Hn = 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1 − hn,xx ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 G2 = 0 0 0 T - c2 - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 - G 7 hn,xx, - - # 90 5 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 " 7 # C- 3 - & s3n 7 - - - 79 . 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 g1c2 g 2c2 g 3c2 0 1 − g1c2 0 0 0 0 1 − g 2c2 0 0 0 0 1 − g 3c2 G 0 0 0 1 0 0 - "" 0 0 0 7 6 9E - 7# C- " &++I2 5 3 v 3V "" # Z t7 ,xx [i, j ] = V ⋅ Z t6 ,xx [i, j ] .'2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 v 0 0 0 G - V= 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 K# &# # # &# : C- - " G 7 . C- - - " # ;" . 2 7 G2 7 - - " - 3 7 # G K 7 - " - - # T - 7 " . 2 7 - 79 xx 90 5 6 OVxx[i, j] G - -7 9E 7 .&++I2# OVxx [i, j ] = ADxx ⋅ f n 1 + b ⋅ ADtotal [i, j ] .42 G - ADtotal [i, j ] = ADaa [i, j ] + ADaA [i, j ] + AD AA [i, j ] C- SRtotal[i, j] SRtotal [i, j ] = OVaa [i, j ] + OVaA [i, j ] + OV AA [i, j ] C" 7 C- ! 7 - - - 9 9 p q " p[i, j ] = OV AA [i, j ] + 12 OVaA [i, j ] SRtotal [i, j ] . +2 q[i, j ] = OVaa [i, j ] + 12 OVaA [i, j ] SRtotal [i, j ] . ! 7 # C- pm - .,2 - k 2 G ! - qm G ppo[i, j] G- - p m [i, j ] = p[i, j ] − k ⋅ p[i, j ] + k ⋅ q[i, j ] . <2 q m [i, j ] = q[i, j ] − k ⋅ q[i, j ] + k ⋅ p[i, j ] . I2 qpo[i, j] - ! L " - - 7 - - . 7 2 ! 7 - GFxx G GFaa [i, j ] = q po [i, j ] ⋅ q m [i, j ] . (2 K GFaA [i, j ] = p po [i, j ] ⋅ q m [i, j ] + q po [i, j ] ⋅ p m [i, j ] . GFaa [i, j ] = p po [i, j ] ⋅ p m [i, j ] 0 C- 7 " . '2 7 - - L 2 - 3 Fxx# 7 7 - 3 M#C- Z 8t ,xx [i, j ] = M ⋅ Z t7 ,xx [i, j ] + Fxx [i, j ] 0 0 0 G - M= 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 − m1 0 0 0 0 1 − m2 0 0 0 0 1 − m3 SRtotal [i, j ]⋅ GFxx [i, j ] 0 0 0 0 0 Fxx [i, j ] = C- 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 " 6 0 0 0 0 7 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 m1 m2 - - G 7 # - - m3 # # - - - G # Z t9 ,xx [i, j ] = S ⋅ Z 8t ,xx [i, j ] G - S= 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 . ,2 K 0 " " G " 7G - - G- 7 - - " 7 - - " G " #T - - G " 9 " # )$) ?*(E +!85/(")* G ! 7 G 7- " 9 - @ - # C- " 3 - - G - 7 # # " 7# K# &# # &# # > C- G - " &++&2 # # 7r %!# .&+2 7 L - - " G- - - z ! 7 - - .1 - 3 7 # # C- / " z 7 # C- G / - " 9 7 - - PO G - - - 7 # C- 7 - j+r z PO[i, j ] = SR[i, j ] ⋅ pol 0 + i+r SR[u , v ] − v = j − r u =i − r T - ! - " 7 - - ppo - - " SR[i, j ] ⋅ pol 0 ⋅ p m [i, j ] + G qpo j+r p po [i, j ] = .&+2 - qm " ⋅ pol r # - ! SR[u , v] r ⋅8 - - i + r −1 v = j − r −1 u = i − r −1 r =1 G - pol0, pol1, …,polz - G j + r −1 z r =1 i+r " # C- SR[u , v ] ⋅ p m [u , v ] − v = j − r u =i − r #? ! - j + r −1 7 ! 7 PO[i, j ] - pm - i + r −1 SR[u , v ] ⋅ p m [u , v ] v = j − r −1 u =i − r −1 r ⋅8 G ⋅ pol r .& 2 K q po [i, j ] = 1 − p po [i, j ] K# &# # &# &# : T " " - .&&2 " - " - 7 " G # C- - - - " G " G - G - - " - G 9 " # C- G7 L .SB12 - G - #: 7 G- - 9 7 - - " .con2 G- G 7 - - " gat# 0 - # 7 G- " - " - " - 7G Z9 # CG - - " " 7# C- ! " " G 7 ES - IS # C- " G - 3 7 - - G " - - ES G 3 - - G 0 0 0 1 − CG − ES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 " " - " - - " Z t9 ,xx [i, j ] = S ⋅ Z 8t ,xx [i, j ] + IS xx [i, j ] G - S= - # T - - " G - - 7 G - - 7 - - " 3 G 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 .&<2 K 0 0 0 IS xx [i, j ] = IS xx [i, j ] 0 0 G - ext - CG = gat n ⋅ con n .&I2 ES = gat n ⋅ (1 − conn ) ⋅ extn .&(2 IS xx [i, j ] = SR xx [ihar −1 , j har −1 ] ⋅ ES .& 2 3 " - - " - [ihar-1, jhar-1]# - " - 1 - " " 7 - - " - " # C- " - " T - 3 7 - " - S .&++,2# C- - " G " ; 0 L G - .# # - - 2# ! * * & C- 3 G -G - " - " 7 - G - " G # C- - - G G - sr CCG1, xx [i, j ] = ⋅ yield 7 # - G yield - SR xx [i, j ]e ⋅ CG e =1 .&'2 size 3 - G- G size G - sr - - - CCG1 G - #0 7 # C- G %!# .&'2 L # 7 size [i, j]e - " - CCG2 P +# K 0(-@ +0#- 9(!0#$)+ C " " - " - G - - 7 > . O " &++42 " 7 90 5 G . ,,<2 - - X = floor( X + U ) = X + U G -U G + .&42 X - # # AD[i, j] SR[i, j]# 1 9 /)0)9+ (? 0@) /(")* $" #$#0# * -($"#0#($+ C- - - - C #0 - " - C- G - 7 " G- 7 - ! &++<2# C- " # # - " G - - &+ " L - " O " - " 3 - . - " " - " & - G 7 G 7 ! C G - - - P %:C+2# G # - # ,(,!* 0#($+ G " # G F(*!0#($ (? 0@) @)98#-#")59)+#+0 $0 - G G - G )-0#($ - # C- ! > L 7 G - 7 G - .# # # # C- # C- G " " " 0 " 7 G - " - - 7 : 7 G - " L - - - - - G " 9 - & G . G - " G 2# > G- - 9 " - aa C- gO f C- e0 ! d 0" # 7 7 - G ! L a C- : 6 8*) 7 - G # C- 7 G # : 9 G # t2 7 t3 t1 - ! " - 7 L 3 # G 7 t321 t322 t323 t121 t122 t123 t221 t222 t223 CCS0aa CCS0aA CCS0AA pini - G 7G - t331 t332 t333 t231 t232 t233 t131 t132 t133 L 0 - + + aa +#4+f +# < +#+' +#(,f +#<I +#+' - &# # 0‡ 0 0 - + +# < +#'I +# < + - # G# 7 3 + + +#+ +#+ +#,4 +#+ +#+ +#44 Q- a * +9(d +#I +#(+ +#+, &#' * + )9) * -9(, /8(* SBini G - #S .&++'2 "" t311 t312 t313 t211 t212 t213 t111 t112 t113 " +#4+f +# < +#+' +#4(g +# ( + - &# 0‡ 0 0 - +# < +#'I +# < +#< +# , + - # +#+ +#+ +#,4 + +#+I +#, +#+ +#+< +#, Q- a * +9(d +# ( +#(< +#<& &#' * + +#'+f +#&+ +# + 7 # !$?*(E)9 -9(, G L L L : : " : : > ? 79T # .&++'2 # .&++'2 # .&++'2 # . ,4,2 > G .&++&2 )?)9)$-)+ K ? ? ,,42# gg C- ff 0" ee C- dd C L O > G & 9 9 - 7 7 7 9: 9: 9: " : "" 9: 9 C? 1 8*) - & < - - G - - G "" G -G 7 7 - - 9 - - - 7 G # - - + " 7 " # # G - " s1 s2 haa haA hAA v f c1 c2 g1 g2 g3 d /8(* - # # 7 " ,<( - +#,( + + +#' +gg Q +# (ff +#<( +#(<ee +#&' +#+& 3 7 )9) * -9(, +#( dd 7 - 7 ,<( - + + + +#' Q +gg +gg +# (ff +#<( +#(<ee +#&' +#+& # !$?*(E)9 -9(, +#( dd - # E 6 ;G F 8 H # .&+ .6 2 9E 9E 90 5 .&++I2 9? 6 # # .&+++2 9 # . ,, 2 )?)9)$-)+ # .&++,2 K - O ,, 2# C L K ? " 96 91 - - " - - - - & - -7 - G - 7 / / 3 - " : 7 7 9: / > 8*) 7 7 - 7# C- - & < L - G - - G - G- - - 7 7 - L - - - - " # pol0 pol1 gat con ext z k G - m1 P m2 P m3 b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requency of phenotypic resistance 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 Adult plants Seed bank 0,2 0,0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation 2#:!9) C " - ! 7 - - 9 " - # C- ! 7 - - 9 - G L .6 # I2 GG - - 97 7 - ! - - 3 " # 7 K Frequency of phenotypic resistance 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 sunflower-cereal rotation cereal-sunflower rotation cereal monoculture 0,2 0,0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation 2#:!9) 1 C " 0 - - 7 7 # 7 .6 ( G- - .O " # &++<2# 0 9 L " - 2# 0 G L - 7 - G .6 - ( - 9 G &+ Cellls (x 103) with evolved resistance 9 - - - G - - - ! 7 - - 9 - 9 - G 2# 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation 2#:!9) C " - - # C.AA .- 2 7- L 7 aA 9 G- L " &+ - 7 7 2# 4))" ,(,!* 0#($ C- G ' 2# C- L " " - %:C - - " # O G - " . 2 - " - .6 # - 2 G L %:CI . G %:C( . 7 " 2 K - 7 %:C+# C" 7 - - " - " 7 - - .%:C&2 - L " .%:C<2 - G G " Year 4 Year 6 Year 8 &+ SBaA + SBAA = 0 &+ 0 < SBaA + SBAA 2#:!9) 6 1 - - 7 G %:C - - (+ I - - G 7 G # T- SBAA SB SB 47 7 - " 7# C- G - - " 3 L .SB = " - # .6 # ' 2# %:C < - L " %:C ( - (+ SB < SBaA + SBAA SBaA + SBAA 7 SBAA + SBaA + SBaa2 L SB " SB - .6 # ' 2# Year 1 SBaA G - %:C - - &+ 7 - - G G L .6 # ' 2 " # : - G - 7 - L# 0 L " - L - %:C < # L %:C K 2 35 6 Seeds/cell (x 10 ) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation EST0 EST1 EST2 EST3 EST4 EST5 2 35 Seeds/cell (x 106) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation EST0 EST6 EST7 2#:!9) % %:C( EST8 EST9 EST10 L 7 2 " - %:C %:C4# %:C ( " C %:C EST11 EST12 EST13 - EST14 EST15 EST16 2 %:C - " %:C - %:C %:C < 7 %:C+# %:C I - - # ./ - <2# )+#+0 $-) ?9)C!)$C- ! 7 %:C(2 - ! .6 # 4 2# %:CI " " %:C( G # C- L7 " " 7 %:C+# ? G " L (+ .%:C - G %:C %:C& %:C< - G K G - 7 7 G 7 7 %:C& %:C<# C%:C< " G - G 7 9 G- %:C( G- - G " " G - G - - .%:C' - .%:C I %:C (2 .6 # 4 2# %:C %:C & G - G- - " G %:C 7- G- - " G 7 %:C&# .6 # 4 2# 0 %:CI " - - %:C C- 7 - " " - - %:C 2 7 .6 # 4 2# .%:C < %:C 2# )+#+0 $-) +,9) " T - " 39 " - - 7 - - %:C( - %:C L %:CI 7 %:C& - - %:C<# %:C& 7 " : .6 # , 2# 0 " " - - 7 " - %:CI 7 %:C' %:C( %:C L G 7 - .%:C " %:C I %:C < " " - %:C < " - - G %:C & - - G- - " " 7 " .6 # , 2# %:C 7 397 - " - %:C<2# %:C " 9 3 " 397 " %:C .6 # , 2# ! %:C # C- G %:C< - 7 - - &+ 7 .6 # , 2# 2 C- 2 " 7 " G " @ - " - - - - - - " ! .6 # + 2# ? G " 7 - 7 G - # 7- .6 # + 2 - " 7 - " + G 9 7 .6 # - G 2# - G - K - " " # ? " .6 # + 2 - - - G " " G - - - - " G - .6 # + 2# 2 Frequency of phenotypic resistance 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation EST0 EST1 EST2 EST3 EST4 EST5 2 Frequency of phenotypic resistance 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation EST0 EST6 EST7 2#:!9) . C " 2 - - C %:C ( <2# ! " %:C EST8 EST9 EST10 7 %:C EST11 EST12 EST13 - - %:C %:C I 9 %:C( 7 %:C+# %:CI EST14 EST15 EST16 2 L " - %:C+ %:C4 - %:C - - # ./ %:C %:C & - " - K 2 Cells (x 103) with evolved resistance 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation EST0 EST1 EST2 EST3 EST4 EST5 2 Cells (x 103) with evolved resistance 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 Years of simulation EST0 EST6 EST7 2#:!9) < C " - 2 - %:C 7 0 . %:C - %:C + C <2# C- 7 .AA aA 7 - G 2# CG 9 %:C( 2 %:C ( L " - %:C %:C+ %:C, - %:C 7 - L G- - %:C4 # ./ &+ 2# G 7 EST14 EST15 EST16 7- 7 %:C+# %:CI " " EST11 EST12 EST13 .- 2 " %:C' %:C & - EST8 EST9 EST10 7G GG- - # C- " G 7 G - 9 G K 7 #4 - - 7 , G - G- 2 G # Harvester Sowing weed-contaminated crop seeds Pollen flow Distance from focus (m x 100) 300 200 100 6 4 2 0 0 0 5 10 15 0 20 5 10 2#:!9) > 2C " - - .- 2 2 - L - - 7- 9 - " 7 .AA L 7- 9 " G2# C7 20 9 - 9 - 15 Years of simulation Years of simulation G G 2 Harvester Sowing weed-contaminated crop seeds Pollen flow " G 8 400 Cells with evolved resistance G- G .- " G L 7 aA G- 2# K &+ - # 1 1 C- G .6 # " - G 2# K 7- - 7 L - 2 .6 # G (+ 2 - - - 2 .6 # - 7 .# # G " - - - G " - # C- L " L. - G 2 7 - G9 7 7 9 - # C- 7 7 - G 2# ; - L 7 + . .6 # 7 - G 2# - .6 # 3 G . - G 2# - G 7 - - " - - - - G " 7 - G 97 - 7. " G -5 - # C7 - - &+ 9 " C- - 2 - " - - -7 " - - .# # 7 - " - " 7 - - - - - G 2 2# C! G 7 - K 2 2 Potential fecundity Mutation rate Fitness cost Herbicide control 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 -1.0 -0.5 9 Years to resistance evolution over half of the cells integrating the landscape Years to resistance evolution over the landscape 9 0.0 0.5 Potential fecundity Mutation rate Fitness cost Herbicide control 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 -1.0 1.0 -0.5 2#:!9) : " 7 7 2 - - - " - " 2 - # C- - - " " " " 7 7 C7G- - 7 aA " 7 - 9 G G 7 G- &+ &+ - G L " 7 - .6 # & 2 - G 2# 0 7 " - G - G G- G - - - " " 2# . - - " " .AA 1.0 " - # C- 0.5 - - - 7 0.0 Standardized domain of uncertain Standardized domain of uncertain " ! - - &+ " - 7 - # C- - - G- - - G .6 # & 2# C- 6;1% O " . 7 - - - G 2 - L G - " ; 0 - - " " <&&+ # " - - # 1 ; - 9 - G G - - 7 G 3 G- " 7- ,,<2 - # - 7 - 3 7 0 37 - 37 G G G 7 # C- G - - - 7 - G G - " " 7 7 7 9 ,,<2# : - 37 # &+ " " - 37 . ? 2 .0 7 - .C G- - 2# C- # - - " " " 0 7 7 .C # K - ./ - # &++ 2 " & 7 ? G " - ! " " " 7 7 " # - 7 G G - 7 &2# Q 2 2 10 Cells (x 10 ) with evolved resistance after 20 years of simulation 10 Cells (x 10 ) with evolved resistance after 20 years of simulation G G - - .&+ 0 - - - ,, 8 6 6 4 3 3 4 8 2 Tail length of the pollen distribution 0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 2 Harvester movement 0 FOREIGN mov. 1.0 LOCAL mov. Standarized domain of uncertain 2#:!9) : - " " 7 " - 2 - . # # 6;1% O 7C- 7 " ; 0 9 G- 7 .? &+ - 2 .- 2 &+ 7 - - - - 7 # 7 .AA a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h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