GAR Broker`s Forum - Cornerstone Valuation

GAR Broker`s Forum - Cornerstone Valuation

Guam Real Estate Market
2013 - 2014 YTD
GAR BROKERS FORUM
April 2014
 Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.
 Brief Economic Updates
 2013-2014 YTD Real Estate Market
Activity
Introduction
Our Team – We Value
FEDERAL/LOCAL GOVT
PRIVATE COMPANIES
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A.B. Won Pat International Airport Authority (GIAA)
Guam Housing and Urban Renewal Authority (GHURA)
Department of Public Works
Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC)
Port Authority of Guam (PAG)
PBS Guam
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LENDER
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UBS Securities LLC New York
BBCN Los Angeles
Citibank N.A. Los Angeles
ANZ Guam, Inc.
BankPacific, Ltd.
Bank of Guam
Coast360FCU
Bank of Hawaii
First Hawaiian Bank
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GTA Teleguam
IP&E Guam
Novogradac & Company LLP New York
Civille & Tang
American Wind Capital Connecticut
Mair, Mair Spade & Thompson
Torres Law Group
Commercial Plumbing Hawaii
Calvo Realty & Management
E&A Engineers
Sachdev & Sachdej
Pedro Pangelinan
Cesar Cabot
DNA, Inc.
IP&E Holdings, LLC
Blair Sterling Johnson & Martinez
Micronesia Community Development Corp
Jones & Guerrero Company, Inc.
Novogradac Company New York
MDA
L&K Engineering Taipei
Kaki Bukit Singapore
Core Tech
Our Clients – Selected List
Brief Economic Updates
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Tourist Arrivals
GHRA Occupancy, Room Rate & RevPar
Employment
Unemployment Rate
CPI
Building Permit
GDP
Brief Economic Updates
Tourist Arrivals1
1,600,000
15.0%
1,400,000
10.0%
1,200,000
1,000,000
5.0%
800,000
0.0%
600,000
400,000
-5.0%
200,000
0
Tourist Arrivals
% Change
1
2006
1,211,674
2007
1,224,894
2008
1,141,779
2009
1,052,871
2010
1,197,408
2011
1,159,778
2012
1,308,035
2013
1,334,497
2014 Ann.
1,404,648
-1.3%
1.1%
-6.8%
-7.8%
13.7%
-3.1%
12.8%
2.0%
5.3%
Includes air and sea visitor arrivals annualized through February 2014.
Tourist Arrivals
-10.0%
GHRA Occupancy, REVPAR and Occupany Rate
$180
100%
$160
90%
$140
80%
70%
Median Price ($)
$120
60%
$100
50%
$80
40%
$60
30%
$40
20%
$20
10%
$0
Hotel Room Rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
$106
$110
$116
$108
$111
$123
$123
$132
$159
REVPAR
$64
$75
$74
$65
$79
$88
$100
$99
$140
Hotel Occupancy Rate
60%
68%
64%
60%
71%
72%
81%
75%
88%
Source: Guam Hotel and Restaurant Association; 2015 reflects YTD weighted average through February. Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.; All rights reserved.
Occupancy, Room Rates & REVPAR
0%
2006 to 2013 Guam Employment Numbers
70,000
Employment Nos.
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
59,360
60,350
60,840
61,220
62,600
60,820
61,840
61,840
Private 44,160
Public 15,200
45,320
45,730
45,670
46,790
44,760
46,050
46,270
15,030
15,110
15,550
15,810
16,060
15,790
15,570
Total
Source: Guam Department of Labor. Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.; All rights reserved.
Employment
2006 to 2013 Guam Unemployment Rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
6.9%
8.3%
NA
9.3%
NA
Source: Guam Department of Labor
Unemployment Rate
2011
2012
2013
13.3% 10.7% 13.3%
140.0
14%
120.0
12%
100.0
10%
80.0
8%
60.0
6%
40.0
4%
20.0
2%
0.0
Ann. Average
% Change
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD
92.0
98.2
104.3
106.1
109.2
112.8
116.3
116.3
116.4
11.6%
6.7%
6.2%
1.7%
2.9%
3.3%
3.1%
0.0%
0.1%
Source: Bureau of Statistics and Plans. 2014 YTD reflects 1st quarter reported figure through March.
CPI
0%
% Change
Annual Average
2006 - 2014 YTD Guam CPI
2006 to 2013 Guam Construction Permits 1
$600.0
2,500
2,000
$400.0
1,500
$300.0
1,000
$200.0
500
$100.0
$0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$195.4
$305.9
$210.4
$299.1
$184.8
$211.1
$349.1
$485.8
No. Permits 1,197
1,414
1,162
850
1,024
1,036
920
2,287
Value ($M)
1
2013 reported figures annualized through October.
Source: Guam Department of Labor
Construction Permits
0
No. of Permits
Value ($M)
$500.0
5,000
6%
4,800
5%
4,600
4%
4,400
3%
4,200
2%
4,000
1%
3,800
0%
3,600
GDP
% Change
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
4,077
4,207
4,335
4,542
4,577
4,555
4,761
3.2%
3.0%
4.8%
0.8%
-0.5%
4.5%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013 GDP figures unavailable.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
-1%
% Change
GDP
2006 - 2012 Guam Gross Domestic Product
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Annual Sales Volume
Annual No. of Transaction
Sales By Sector
Residential
Commercial
Apartment
Top Sales
Hotspots
Guam Real Estate Market Overview
Guam Real Estate Sales - Sales Volume by Year ($M) [1]
$500.0
60%
40%
$400.0
$350.0
20%
$300.0
$250.0
0%
$200.0
-20%
$150.0
$100.0
-40%
$50.0
$0.0
2008
Sales Vol. ($ M) $365.0
% Change
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Ann.
$251.0
$306.2
$307.5
$472.9
$261.6
$204.7
-31%
22%
0%
54%
-45%
-22%
[1] Annualized through 1st Quarter 2014.
Source: Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.; All rights reserved
Annual Sales Volume
-60%
% Change
Sales Volume ($ Millions)
$450.0
1,600
10%
1,400
5%
1,200
0%
1,000
-5%
800
-10%
600
-15%
400
-20%
200
0
Transactions
% Change
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Ann.
1,475
1,183
1,245
1,082
1,005
1,019
1,020
-20%
5%
-13%
-7%
1%
0%
-25%
[1] Annualized through 1st Quarter 2014.
Source: Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.; All rights reserved
Annual No. of Transactions
% Change
Sales Volume ($ Millions)
Guam Real Estate Sales - No. of Transactions by Year [1]
2013 - 2014 YTD Guam Real Estate Sales - Sales Volume by Month
$30.0
80%
60%
$25.0
20%
$15.0
0%
$10.0
-20%
$5.0
$0.0
-40%
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Sales Volume $16.5 $16.6 $26.9 $25.9 $18.3 $26.5 $17.9 $20.7 $20.2 $27.3 $18.2 $26.7 $18.8 $15.7 $16.7
% Change
-35%
1%
62%
-4%
-29%
45%
-32%
16%
-2%
35%
Monthly Sales Volume
-33%
47%
-30%
-16%
6%
-60%
% Change
Sales Volume ($ Millions)
40%
$20.0
2013 - 2014 YTD Guam Real Estate Sales - No. of Sales by Month
120
50%
40%
100
20%
60
10%
40
0%
20
0
-10%
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
No. of Sales
84
83
95
87
85
73
84
88
82
87
72
99
90
77
88
% Change
0%
-1%
14%
-8%
-2%
-14%
15%
5%
-7%
6%
-17%
38%
-9%
-14%
14%
Monthly No. of Sales
-20%
% Change
Sales Volume ($ Millions)
30%
80
2013 Guam Real Estate Sales
$ millions
Condo, $31.0
SFD, $132.0
Land, $72.2
Hotel, $0.0
Industrial, $6.2
Commercial, $8.1
Sales By Sector
MFD, $12.2
Guam Residential Sales Volume ($M) [1]
$250.0
Sales Volume ($M)
$200.0
$150.0
$100.0
$50.0
$0.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Ann.
Residential
$208.1
$158.3
$173.9
$173.1
$153.9
$163.0
$152.5
SFD
$162.4
$136.1
$141.7
$141.2
$129.8
$132.0
$113.5
Condo
$45.7
$22.2
$32.2
$31.9
$24.1
$31.0
$39.0
Source: Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.; All rights reserved
[1] Annualized through 1st Quarter of 2014.
Residential
Guam Residential No. of Transactions [1]
1,000
900
800
No. of Trans
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Ann.
Residential
948
763
769
713
667
722
692
SFD
705
612
586
541
530
557
496
Condo
243
151
183
172
137
165
192
Source: Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.; All rights reserved
[1] Annualized through 1st Quarter 2014.
Residential
Guam Residential Median Price ($)
$300,000
Median Price ($)
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD
Residential $190,000
SFD
$215,000
$184,800
$199,000
$214,000
$201,000
$191,350
$182,837
$200,000
$212,250
$245,000
$215,500
$200,000
$193,500
Condo
$124,000
$140,000
$132,500
$150,000
$139,905
$156,200
2008
$140,000
Source: Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.; All rights reserved. 2014 YTD reflects figures through 1st Quarter 2014.
Residential
Top 10 Real Estate Sales in Guam in 2013 Based on Price
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Location
Tumon oceanfront
Former Lada Estates site
Agana Bay oceanfront
DNA Apartments
Route 3
Dandan
Alupang Street
Sheraton Laguna vicinity
Pick A Nail Road vicinity
Tumon Bay Shopping Center
Route 3 - $3.56M
Municipality
Tamuning
Dededo
Tamuning
MTM
Dededo
Inarajan
Tamuning
Tamuning
Tamuning
Tamuning
Type
Land
Land
Land
Apartments
Land
Land
Apartments
Single Family
Industrial
Land
Dandan - $3.2M
DNA Apts. - $4.5M
Pick A Nail Vicinity - $2.1M
Indicated Price ($)
$10,508,000
$9,066,200
$5,000,000
$4,500,000
$3,561,390
$3,215,400
$3,200,000
$2,634,000
$2,100,000
$2,088,000
Alupang Apts. - $3.2M
Top 10 Sales - 2013
Top 5 Real Estate Sales in Guam Through 1st Quarter 2014 Based on Price
No.
Location
Municipality
Type
Indicated Price
1
Perezville SFD
Tamuning
SFD
$740,000
2
Tamuning multi-family complex
Tamuning
MFD
$890,000
3
Yigo land
Yigo
Land
$960,000
5
New Marina Hotel
Hagatna
Hotel
$1,100,000
4
Fujita Road commercial building
Tumon
Commercial
$1,130,000
Fujita Road Comm. Bldg. - $1.13M
New Marina Hotel - $1.1M
Top 5 Sales – 2014 Q1
Tumon Sales
Route 3 Sales
Contact Information:
siska@cornerstonevaluation.com
710 W. Marine Corps Drive
Bell Tower, Suite 203
Hagåtña, Guam 96910
Phone: (671) 989-9288
Fax: (671) 989-9287
www.cornerstonevaluation.com
Cornerstone Valuation Guam, Inc.