- Clean Energy Business Council

Transcription

08 December 2015
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
FOR THE GLOBAL
POWER SECTOR
2015 MENA Clean Energy
Forum
Seb Henbest
PRODUCTS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY
Solar
Wind
Americas
2015 MENA Clean Energy Forum
Other
Renewables
Gas
Energy Smart
Technologies
Europe, Middle East
& Africa
Advanced
Transport
Carbon &
RECs Markets
Asia Pacific
Twitter: @SebHenbest
1
NEW ENERGY OUTLOOK 2015
2
“Prediction is difficult,
especially about the
future”
– Niels Bohr
3
NEO KEY FINDINGS
1.
Renewables will command just under 60% of the 9,786GW of new capacity and
65% of the $12.2 trillion of power investment to 2040.
2.
Economics – rather than policy – will increasingly drive the uptake of renewable
technologies.
3.
The real solar revolution will be on rooftops, driven by high retail prices, and the
availability of residential storage in some countries.
4.
In developed economies, the link between economic growth and electricity
consumption appears to be weakening and daily load profiles are getting ‘peakier’.
5.
Gas’ role as a 'transitional fuel‘ is in question as less than 1,000GW of net
capacity will be added globally by 2040.
6.
Despite significant growth in renewables, fossil fuels will maintain a 44% share of
generation in 2040 when CO2 emissions will be 13% higher than today.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
4
GLOBAL INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY AND
PROJECTED ADDITIONS, BY TECHNOLOGY (GW)
ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS, 2015-40
2012
2040
600
6%
21%
5%
5,584GW
2%
6%
65%
400
14%
200
0
2015
Fossil Fuels
14%
2020
Nuclear
2025
Solar
Wind
2030
Other renewables
2035
36%
14,216GW
2040
Flexible capacity
26%
4%
5
GLOBAL GROSS ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY
TECHNOLOGY, 2015-40 (GW)
Flexible capacity
600
Solar thermal
500
Small-scale PV
Utility-scale PV
400
Offshore wind
300
Onshore wind
Biomass/WtE
200
Geothermal
100
Hydro
Nuclear
0
Oil
-100
Gas
Coal
-200
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
6
GROSS CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY REGION AND
BY TECHNOLOGY, 2015-40 (GW)
4,815GW
APAC
1,274GW
Americas
RoW
1,097GW
Europe
947GW
774GW
MEA
0
1,000
Solar
Fossil fuels
Note: Figure excludes other and flexible capacity.
2,000
3,000
Wind
4,000
5,000
Other renewables
6,000
Nuclear
7
H2 2015 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY
CENTRAL AND REGIONAL SCENARIOS ($/MWH)
Note: STEG = solar thermal electric generation
8
LCOE: PV (NO TRACKING)
CENTRAL SCENARIO ($/MWH)
350
PV - c-Si
300
PV - c-Si tracking
250
200
PV - thin film
150
100
50
0
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
2013
H1
H2
2014
H1
H2
2015
9
PV EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976-2015
2015 $/W
100
1976
Costs of solar PV has
fallen by 24% for
each doubling of
cumulative volume
Price per
W
(2015 $)
1985
10
2003
1
2014
2012
2015
August
0.1
1
10
Experience curve
Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.
100
1,000
historic prices (Maycock)
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Cumulative
capacity (MW)
Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF)
Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
10
WIND TURBINE PRICE
1984-2016E (2014 MEUR/MW, REAL 2014)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Global (ex. China) (BNEF)
Germany (ExTool)
Denmark (Extool)
Vestas global
US (LBL)
China (BNEF)
Note: China pricing exhibited for reference. As most data are available in Euros, we have converted the US wind turbine
pricing data and China’s wind turbine pricing data into Euros, which are subjected to exchange rate fluctuation effects.
2016
Source: Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory (LBNL), ExTool study (Neij et
al.2003), Vestas annual reports.
11
IMPROVEMENTS IN TURBINE TECHNOLOGY FOR
WIND
Hub height
Blade length,
blade design
Improved
component parts
Siting
Turbine control
software
Improved
availability
12
GLOBAL (EX. CHINA) ONSHORE WIND CAPACITY
FACTOR IMPROVEMENT OVER YEARS, 1997-2015 (%)
60%
299MW
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1980
1984
1988
Germany
1992
1996
Denmark
2000
UK
2004
Spain
2008
US
2012
2020
Canada
Note: We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using wind resource data
provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P90 value in the capacity factor tool.
2016
13
ONSHORE WIND EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1985-2015
(2014 EUR/MWH, MW)
Onshore wind has
-0.30
by 19% for
y = 3,582.42xfallen
R² = 0.91each doubling of
cumulative volume
1,024
1985
512
H1 2015
256
2009
Thailand
1999
128
2025
2014
64
Learning rate =19%
R² = 0.91
32
Germany
US
Brazil
16
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio of 70%, cost of debt (bps to LIBOR) of
175, cost of equity of 8%. H1 2015 average LCOE data refers to H1 2015 Wind Levelised cost of electricity update. We
convert US dollar to Euro based on the exchange rate of 0.8979 (exchange rate on 30 July 2015). Learning curve is least
square regression: R2 = 0.91 and learning rate=19%
1,000,000
14
PUBLIC CAPEX BENCHMARKS FOR RESIDENTIAL PV
SYSTEMS ($/W)
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Q1 2008
Germany
Note: Data here.
Q1 2009
California
Q1 2010
Japan
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Chinese multi module
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Australia (3kW)
Q1 2015
Vivint
SolarCity
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
BSW-Solar, Solarchoice.au, METI, company
filings
15
GLOBAL RESIDENTIAL-SCALE PV SYSTEM
ECONOMICS
2014
Note: NJ, New Jersey; CA, California. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2025
Note: NJ, New Jersey; CA, California. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
16
TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE CURVES
Source: Michael Felton, The New York Times,
Harvard Business Review
17
EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACKS: HISTORICAL
COST REDUCTIONS
EV battery pack cost ($/kWh)
10,000
1,000
2012
2010
2011
2014
2013
2015*
EV lithium-ion battery
pack prices have fallen by
60% since 2010
100
10
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Cumulative production (MWh)
Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF’s annual battery price index, *2015 based on H1 data. For more see here:
https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10299. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size.
18
GROSS ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS
(GW)
FOSSIL & NUCLEAR
RENEWABLES
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
Solar thermal
Small-scale PV
Nuclear
800
OECD
Oil
800
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
600
Gas
600
400
Coal
400
200
128
84
30
10
8
360
371
250
295
Biomass/WtE
Geothermal
Hydro
0
2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040
NonOECD
313
200
0
2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
Utility-scale PV
Nuclear
726
600
486
541
549
530
400
Oil
800
Gas
600
Coal
400
1,177
961
642
682
766
Solar thermal
Small-scale PV
Utility-scale PV
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Biomass/WtE
Geothermal
200
200
0
Hydro
0
2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040
2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040
19
BNEF & IEA: WIND & SOLAR CAPACITY FORECASTS
(GW)
3,500
BNEF - 2014
BNEF - 2015
BNEF - 2013
3,000
2,500
BNEF - 2011
2,000
IEA - 2015
IEA - 2014
IEA - 2013
IEA - 2012
IEA - 2011
1,500
1,000
IEA - 2010
500
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0
BNEF renewables forecasts have always outpaced IEA forecasts, and were closer to
actual installed wind and solar capacity.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
20
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied,
reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such
a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of
their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no
responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be
construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an
investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.
21
MARKETS
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Seb Henbest
shenbest@bloomberg.net
Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
sales.bnef@bloomberg.net

- Clean Energy Business Council

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