Commercial Truck Guidelines

Transcription

NADA Commercial Truck Guide
Industry Update
October 2014

Retail sales volume down mildly, but pricing
remains strong
Seasonal slowdown in volume has likely begun

Wholesale sales volume up, pricing remains
solid
Large group of 2011-2012 ProStars sold has
outsized impact on monthly results

Special Study: Status of New and Used Market
for Natural Gas Trucks
Commercial Truck Guidelines | October 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Commercial Truck Market Trends ............................................................................................... 2
ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Value Trends ........................................................ 9
At NADA Used Car Guide ............................................................................................................. 10
COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS
Market Summary
Dealers retailed fewer trucks in August than in July, but pricing was little changed.
Auction and wholesale sales volume was up slightly over July, but pricing through those
channels pulled back - albeit with an asterisk. A special study looks at the factors driving
supply and demand of natural gas trucks in the new and used markets.
Sleeper Tractors – Retail
Historically, the latter part of the year is not strong for used truck sales volume, as fleets
and operators focus on moving freight with trucks acquired earlier in the year. This
trend has not always been observable post-recession, but with pricing remaining at a
high level – and no notable external factors limiting demand - that’s the most likely
explanation this year.
August’s universal retail average was nearly identical
to July’s record, at $60,459 – only $308 (or 0.5%)
Average Retail Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
$65,000
lower. Average mileage was 510,445 – 6,561 (or
Mileage
$60,000
1.3%) higher. Average age was 75 months – 1 month
520,000
$50,000
490,000
$45,000
460,000
had 27,135 (or 5.0%) fewer miles, and was 2 months
$40,000
older than August 2013. See “Average Retail price
$35,000
430,000
and Mileage” graph for detail.
$30,000
400,000
Source: ATD/NADA
Period
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b
© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
2
Mileage
Price
580,000
550,000
$55,000
older. Year-over-year, the average sleeper tractor
retailed in August brought $6,369 (or 11.8%) more,
Price
[ COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS continued ]
The market continues to efficiently absorb the
increased numbers of newer trucks coming off-lease.
Average Retail Price by Model Year:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles, Adjusted for Mileage
$120,000
Depreciation remains mild for 2011 and newer trucks,
$100,000
and nonexistent on 2010 and older trucks. In general,
$80,000
money in 2014 than in the previous two years. See
Price
3-5 year-old trucks continue to bring notably more
2007
2008
$60,000
“Average Retail Price by Model Year” and “Average
$40,000
Retail Selling Price by Age” graphs for detail.
$20,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
The influx of sub-400,000 mile trucks continues to be
$0
the major difference this year vs. last. Through
August, there have already been 46.4% more trucks
sold in this cohort compared to all of 2013. Again, the
fact that pricing remains strong in the face of this
Average Retail Selling Price by Age: Sleeper Tractors
Adjusted for Mileage
$100,000
increased volume speaks to the strong demand for
$90,000
these trucks. See “Average Retail Price and Number
$80,000
of Trucks Sold” graph for detail.
Our universal wholesale average price came in slightly
lower than July, but this was due mainly to an
unusually large number of low-priced 2011 and 2012
$70,000
Price
Sleeper Tractors – Wholesale
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
3YO
$60,000
4YO
5YO
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
ProStars sold this month. With this factor in mind,
Period
stable pricing combined with an increased volume of
trucks sold are evidence of continued strength in the
Average Retail Price and Number of Trucks Sold by Mileage Range
Sleeper Tractors, CY2013 vs. YTD2014
wholesale channel.
YTD2014 Price
CY2013 Price
YTD2014 Vol.
CY2013 Vol.
$100,000
August for $40,059 – a $1,048 (or 2.5%) decrease
$70,000
over August 2013. Average mileage was very similar
to July, at 567,089 vs. 571,042 – a 3,953 (or 0.7%)
decrease. Year-over-year, mileage was 87,422 (or
2,500
$80,000
2,000
$60,000
Price
month-over-month, but a $9,171 (or 29.7%) increase
3,000
$50,000
1,500
$40,000
1,000
$30,000
$20,000
500
$10,000
$0
0
13.4%) lower. Average age was 73 months – 1 month
Source: ATD/NADA
Mileage Range
3
Number of Trucks Sold
Specifically, the average sleeper tractor wholesaled in
$90,000
newer than July and 8 months newer than August
2013. See “Average Wholesale Price and Mileage”
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
$50,000
graph for detail.
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
$45,000
continues to be defined by an increased number of
$35,000
lower-mileage trucks available. In this case, the
Price
$40,000
$30,000
biggest shift vs. last year is in the sub-500,000 mile
$25,000
cohort. Through August, there have been 40.3% more
$20,000
$15,000
trucks of this mileage sold than in all of 2013. See
“Average Wholesale Price and Number of Trucks
Sold” graph for detail.
Looking at pricing by model year, the newest years
Average Wholesale Price and Number of Trucks Sold by Mileage Range
Sleeper Tractors, CY2013 vs. YTD2014
appear to have taken a big dip this month, but these
YTD2014 Price
negative results were due largely to the
YTD2014 Vol.
CY2013 Vol.
500
$80,000
450
$70,000
400
350
$60,000
Price
similar to previous months – namely, mild
CY2013 Price
$90,000
300
$50,000
250
$40,000
200
$30,000
depreciation for 2011 and newer trucks, and
essentially flat pricing for 2010 and older trucks. See
150
$20,000
100
$10,000
50
$0
Number of Trucks Sold
aforementioned group of ProStars. Removing these
trucks from the equation results in pricing trends
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
0
“Average Wholesale Price by Model Year” graph for
detail.
Mileage Range
Source: ATD/NADA
The age spread between trucks sold wholesale vs.
Average Wholesale Price by Model Year
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles, Adjusted for Mileage
Historically, this spread has stood at 12-18 months.
$120,000
When the markets came back early this year
$100,000
following the harsh winter, this measure dropped
$80,000
channels have been at parity ever since. The average
mileage difference has not changed as dramatically,
standing at about 100,000 miles. These measures are
evidence of an increasingly ample supply of trucks,
with mileage being the main differentiator between a
Price
dramatically on the wholesale side and the two
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2007)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2008)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2009)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2010)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2011)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
those sold retail continues to be an interesting factor.
Period
truck destined for the wholesale channel vs. the retail
channel.
4
Mileage
As in the retail channel, the wholesale marketplace
790,000
760,000
730,000
700,000
670,000
640,000
610,000
580,000
550,000
520,000
490,000
460,000
430,000
400,000
Competitive Comparison—3- and 4-Year-Old Sleepers
Starting with 3-year-old (2012MY) trucks, the Peterbilt 386 returned to trend after
dipping in July. However, there was only one reported sale of this model in August, so
the month is not a valid representation of that model’s positioning.
The Kenworth T660 and Freightliner Cascadia continue to perform similarly, with prices
essentially unchanged from last month. The Cascadia continues to be the largest-volume
2012 truck sold by a large margin, making its pricing performance even more impressive.
Volvo’s models dipped below the industry average this month. 730/780’s reported sold
continue to feature mileage well above the industry average, which could partially
account for the comparatively lower pricing despite our mileage adjustment. 630/670’s
have featured mileage at the high end of our acceptable range to slightly over, and we
expect that model to track closer to the average over
time.
Average Retail Price - 3-Year-Old Sleeper Tractors
The International ProStar ticked back down in August,
$110,000
running roughly 25% below the average for this
$100,000
$90,000
cohort.
See “Average Retail Price – 3-Year-Old” graph for
detail.
Moving over to 4-year-old (2011MY) trucks, there
was little change vs. last month.
Price
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
386
ProStar
VNL 630/670
Average for all Trucks
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
Jan-14
The Cascadia and T700 continue to mildly outperform
Cascadia
T660
VNL 730/780
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
the competition, with the T660, 730/780, and 386
closely behind. All of these models typically outperform the industry average.
In the lower tier, the 630/670 and 387 had a better month than last, with the 630/670
performing very close to the industry average.
The ProStar continues to depreciate, currently running about 12% behind the market
average for the year to date. Only about 13% of 2011 ProStars reported sold this month
were equipped with the MaxxForce.
5
See the “Average Retail Price – 4-Year-Old” graphs for
detail.
$90,000
$80,000
Natural Gas Trucks
$70,000
Back in May, we discussed how there is essentially no
Price
Special Study: New and Used Market for
$60,000
Avg. for All Trucks
secondary market yet for used natural gas trucks.
$50,000
With last year’s announcement by Westport that they
$40,000
had ceased production of their 15L engine – and
$30,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (VNL 730/780)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (386)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Cascadia)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (T660)
Volvo’s announcement last week that they have
stopped work on a compression ignition LNG engine
for North America – it appears that interest in natural
gas power has moderated. What are the factors
$90,000
currently impacting the new and used natural gas
$80,000
truck markets?
$70,000
Price
With no change in economies of scale, the price of
new NG engines and tanks is still a primary issue. The
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
$60,000
Avg. for All Trucks
premium of $30,000-$70,000 over diesel power
$50,000
remains in place, and the cost/benefit only works out
$40,000
in limited cases. In a classic chicken/egg scenario,
$30,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (387)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (VNL 630/670)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (ProStar)
production needs to ramp up for price to come down,
but until price comes down demand won’t increase.
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
The “low” price of diesel fuel is another primary issue. Thanks to fracking, the US is now
the world’s largest producer of crude oil and export restrictions keep all but a fraction of
that crude in the US. This is not a temporary trend, either – domestic production is
forecast to increase through 2019, and the US should remain the top producer into the
2030’s. This ample domestic supply keeps pricing lower and more stable than crude sold
on the global market. Significantly, the US is also the world’s largest producer of natural
gas, but the low price of NG alone is not sufficient to make the math work out for most
trucking operations.
Looking forward, there is one major factor that could rekindle interest in NG.
Specifically, there’s a moderately good chance that the Commerce Department will relax
6
export restrictions on domestic crude. The agency has already lifted restrictions on a
specific type of condensate, and lobbying for further relaxation is intense. This change
would drive up the price of diesel, as domestic crude would move from a captive to
global market. In this scenario, the cost/benefit for NG improves.
Also, the natural gas fueling infrastructure continues to be built out, with about 740
public (and around 700 private) CNG stations and about 60 LNG stations currently in
service. However, even with ongoing construction, access to even CNG is extremely
limited compared to diesel – and don’t forget that not all CNG stations are fast-fill.
For these reasons, natural gas-powered trucks are still a fraction of the new truck
market. 2014 should see 10,500 trucks sold, which is a 20% increase over 2013… but still
only 5% of the market. Many analysts forecast sales to reach 25-30,000 by 2018 – still a
small percentage.
The low number of trucks sold new will result in a low number returning to the
secondary market. There are still essentially no natural gas trucks showing up in our
retail or wholesale sales databases, and we don’t expect to see an actionable volume in
the near term.
NADA will continue to closely monitor our incoming sales data from Manheim, ADESA,
regional auctions, individual dealers, dealer groups, and OEM’s for sales of NG trucks. If
you are currently buying or selling used NG trucks, I would love to hear from you. Please
drop me a line at cvisser@nada.org.
Sales Volume – Retail and Wholesale
The number of trucks reported sold wholesale
Total Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA
(auction plus dealer-to-dealer) stands at 27,317
6,000
through August, for a 5.7% increase over same-period
5,000
2010 Total:
42,320
2011 Total:
29,282
2012 Total:
34,275
2013 Total:
39,179
2013. Average number of sales per month is up by a
March, but mainly to incrementally higher sales each
4,000
Total Sales
similar amount, due partly to an unusually strong
3,000
2,000
As we’ve noted, an increased supply of 3-6 year-old
1,000
trucks, especially those with under 500,000 miles, is
0
Jan-10
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-11
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-12
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-13
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-14
Mar
May
Jul
month.
Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet
Period
7
primarily responsible for the increased volume. A secondary factor is increased interest
in older, higher-mileage trucks – specifically those with over 800,000 miles. See “Total
Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA” graph for detail.
As for the retail channel, volume pulled back after a strong July. August’s result of 5.6
trucks per rooftop was the lowest since a weatherravaged January, and low for the month. Given
Number of Used Trucks Retailed per Rooftop
continued strong pricing, we’re not assigning much
8
importance to the result.
7
6
In terms of the year to date, 2014 to date is running
4
3
so far in 2014, compared to 48.7 in the same period
2
last year.
1
See the “Average Number of Used Trucks Sold per
Rooftop” graph for detail.
0
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
average dealer has retailed an average of 47.7 trucks
5
Number
0.1 truck behind same-period 2013, at 6.0 vs. 6.1. The
Period
Conclusion
Retail and wholesale used truck markets enter the 4th quarter in strong shape. Selling
activity should decrease in a historically-typical seasonal pattern, but pricing will remain
solid. The increased volume of trucks entering the secondary market this year is the
“new normal,” as we are now fully into the trade-in period for trucks built postrecovery.
These factors should keep pricing trends predictable through the end of the year.
Specifically, expect depreciation of roughly 1-1.5% for 2011 and newer trucks, and stable
pricing for 2010 and older trucks.
As always, most of the content in this report was originally posted on our Commercial
Vehicle Blog in real-time. Keep up with that blog twice each week for analysis of
incoming data as well as industry commentary at www.nada.com/b2b.
8
[ ATD/NADA OFFICIAL COMMERCIAL TRUCK GUIDE® TRENDS ]
Monthly Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
October 2014 v. September 2014
NADA Segment
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY*
Commercial Van
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.9%
3.6%
Extended Hood
0.7%
0.3%
0.5%
0.0%
0.4%
Highway Aerodynamic
-5.2%
-2.4%
0.2%
-0.5%
0.0%
Highway Traditional
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.2%
Local/Delivery Daycab
-1.9%
-0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Medium Duty Cabover
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Medium Duty Conventional
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
1.6%
1.8%
Vocational/Construction
-0.3%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-1.4%
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.
Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
October, 2013 v. 2014
NADA Segment
Commercial Van
Extended Hood
Highway Aerodynamic
Highway Traditional
Medium Duty Cabover
5YR
5.7%
1.8%
4.1%
5.2%
2.1%
-12.6%
14.2%
-0.4%
4YR
18.7%
6.6%
4.3%
10.0%
-1.3%
25.9%
2.7%
19.3%
3YR
5.0%
2.6%
9.4%
4.8%
1.8%
14.2%
-5.4%
N/A
2YR
23.2%
-1.3%
6.1%
2.4%
-8.9%
N/A
0.6%
N/A
Segment
Change
14.9%
3.5%
7.1%
9.9%
1.0%
3.4%
2.7%
7.6%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1-year-old vehicles in CY2014 are compared against values for
1-year-old vehicles in CY2013.
YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
NADA Segment
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY*
YTD
Segment
Commercial Van
17.2%
23.6%
9.1%
8.9%
5.5%
10.6%
Extended Hood
3.0%
-0.6%
-10.0%
-10.9%
-8.7%
-1.4%
Highway Aerodynamic
-12.1%
-7.4%
-7.5%
-6.9%
-8.7%
-6.4%
Highway Traditional
-3.2%
-2.7%
-8.7%
-9.1%
-7.2%
-3.9%
-7.9%
-7.4%
-9.7%
-15.2%
-15.9%
-4.7%
Medium Duty Cabover
-3.5%
2.4%
2.2%
-12.5%
-12.8%
-2.3%
13.3%
5.2%
7.1%
-1.2%
0.8%
4.8%
-3.7%
-1.5%
2.1%
0.7%
0.6%
-3.5%
9
AT NADA USED CAR GUIDE
What’s New
NADA Online delivers values from 10 different NADA guidebooks including commercial trucks. Starting at $385 per
year, NADA Online is comprehensive, easy to use and includes mobile web access free with your subscription. And
since it’s web-based, there is no software to install and your whole staff can use it at the same time without the need
for additional user licenses.
If you’re looking for a small number of commercial vehicle values, the Official Commercial Truck Guide Online MiniPack provides three values online for $40.
On the Road
Chris Visser is attending and exhibiting at the 15th Annual UTA Convention, November 5-7 in Scottsdale, AZ. Stop by
booth #24 and learn about the various services NADA Used Car Guide provides to support your business needs.
Stay up-to-date with the latest in the commercial truck industry by stopping by NADA’s Commercial Truck Blog and our
Market Overviews video section of the website. Updated twice per week by Chris Visser, the blog provides real-time
analysis of incoming sales data from the industry’s leading used truck sales database. NADA produces a monthly market
overview to provide further insight into the commercial truck market.
About NADA Used Car Guide
Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle
valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the United States and
worldwide. NADA’s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined
automotive and truck wholesale and retail transactions per month. Its guidebooks, auction
data, analysis and data solutions offer automotive/truck, finance, insurance and government
professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business
decisions. Visit nada.com/b2b to learn more.
Senior Analyst and
Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
cvisser@nada.org
Credit Unions, Fleet, Lease, Rental
Industry, Government
Doug Ott
800.248.6232 x4710
dott@nada.org
Automotive Dealers,
Auctions, Insurance
Dan Ruddy
800.248.6232 x4707
druddy@nada.org
Business Development
Manager
James Gibson
800.248.6232 x7136
jgibson@nada.org
Financial Industry,
Accounting, Legal,
OEM Captive
Steve Stafford
800.248.6232 x7275
sstafford@nada.org
10
NADA CONSULTING SERVICES
NADA’s market intelligence team leverages a database of nearly 200 million transactions and more than
100 economic and market-related series to describe the factors driving current trends to help industry stakeholders
make more informed decisions. Analyzing data at both wholesale and retail levels, the team continuously provides
content that is both useful and usable to dealers, financial institutions, businesses and consumers.
Complemented by NADA’s analytics team, which maintains and advances NADA’s internal forecasting models and
develops customized forecasting solutions for clients, the market intelligence team is responsible for publishing white
papers, special reports and the Commercial Vehicle Blog. Throughout every piece of content, the team strives to go
beyond what is happening in the industry to confidently answer why it is happening and how it will impact the market
in the future.
Senior Director, Vehicle Analysis & Analytics
Jonathan Banks
800.248.6232 x4709
jbanks@nada.org
Senior Analyst and Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
cvisser@nada.org
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Guidelines
White Papers
Updated monthly with a robust data set
from various industry sources and
NADA’s own proprietary analytical tool,
Guidelines provides the insight needed
to make decisions in today’s market.
NADA’s white papers and special reports
aim to inform industry stakeholders on
current and expected used vehicle price
movement to better maximize today’s
opportunities and manage tomorrow’s risk.
NADA Perspective
Commercial Vehicle Blog
Leveraging data from various industry
sources and NADA’s analysts, NADA
Perspective takes a deep dive into a
range of industry trends to determine
why they are happening and what to
expect in the future.
Written and managed by Senior Analyst
Chris Visser, the Commercial Vehicle
Blog analyzes market data, lends insight
into industry trends and highlights
relevant events.
Connect with NADA
Read our Blog
Follow Us on Twitter
Find Us on Facebook
Watch Us on YouTube
nada.com/commercialtruck
@NADAUsedCarGde
Facebook.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Youtube.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report (“Guidelines”). Guidelines is
provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via email or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint,
reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.
11

Commercial Truck Guidelines

Transcription

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