Material and Methods Introduction Results Brda More results

Material and Methods Introduction Results Brda More results

Spatial-temporal analysis of climate trends in Slovenia
Introduction
SIRNIK Igor1,2*; QUENOL Hervé1; JIMÉNEZ-BELLO Miguel Ángel2; MANZANO Juan2
1 LETG-Rennes-Costel, Université Rennes 2, France, 2 Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain
More results
Results
The purpose of this research is to provide a critical analysis of
temperature, precipitation, Huglin and Winkler indexes trends
during research period of the last five decades and to analyse
the influence of the Mediterranean sea. The CMIP5 climate
historical data from Worldclim data set was analysed and
compared together with the temperature results for the period
1950-2000. In addition, we elaborated the future temperature
scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 for CMIP5) for the period 20412060 and we conducted the comparison analysis of the created
scenarios with the scenarios from Worldclim data set for the
same period. This research was conducted in local scale on
viticulture site Brda in Slovenia (Figure 1).
Huglin and Winkler indexes were have increased during the period
1965-2013 on both stations. The highest increase of the both
bioclimatic indexes was noticed on weather station Bilje (Graph 1 and
Graph 2).
2500
Material and Methods
Data were retrieved from three weather stations distributed
inside and in surroundings of the study site (Figure 2).
HI_Vojsko
2500
WI_BILJE
WI_Vojsko
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
0
Brda
Figure 1 : Location of Brda study site
HI_BILJE
The precipitation trend on weather station Bilje has been declining during
the study period (Graph 3).
2500
On the Graph 4 is
presented the monthly
average temperature
for the period 19502000 and 2041-2060,
calculated from all
three stations. The
future
simulated
temperature for the
period 2041-2060 with
scenario rcp4.5 is in
average 1.7°C higher
in comparison with
the observed data
(1961-2000).
Moreover, the future
simulated
temperature for the period
2041-2060
with
scenario rcp8.5 is
even
higher
than
rcp4.5 scenario - in
average 2.0°C.
20
15
10
Observed temperature for
periode 1961-2000
Worldclim temperature
for period 1950-2000
5
0
Simulated temperature for
period 2041-2060, rcp45
Simulated temperature for
period 2041-2060, rcp85
Graph 4: Comparison of monthly average
observed and simulated temperature for all three
stations [°C]
2000
Perspectives
1500
1000
500
0
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
2013
The presented methodology can be used on any area in the
world to obtain the future climate scenarios, which is important
for future adaption of viticulture of future climate change.
Furthermore, this research is an important contribution for better
understanding the temperature changes in the future, which
does not concern only the adaptation of viticulture.
Graph 3 : Precipitation trend on weather station Bilje from 1963 to 2013 [mm]
The differences between observed and Worldclim monthly average
maximum and minimum temperature was noticed on all three
weather stations for the period 1950-2000, as seen on the Table 1.
Figure 2 : Location of viticulture site Brda and weather stations
We conducted analysis on temperature, precipitation, Huglin
and Winkler index during the research period of the last five
decades for the period 1961-2000. Comparative data were
retrieved from Worldclim data base for the period 1950-2000.
We used the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 modelling (CMIP5) to create a
temperature simulation model for the period 2041-2060, which
we compared to the Worldclim future scenarios for the same
period.
Observed average Tmax (1961-2000)
Average Tmax Worldclim data (1961-2000)
Simulation Tmax, rcp4.5 (2041-2060)
Simulation Tmax, rcp8.5 ( 2041-2060)
Observed average Tmin (1961-2000)
Average Tmin Worldclim data (1961-2000)
Simulation Tmin, rcp4.5 (2041-2060)
Simulation Tmin, rcp8.5 (2041-2060)
Bilje
17,9
17,6
19,6
20,1
6,5
9
8,3
8,9
Vojsko
9,8
10,8
11,5
12
3,1
2,6
4,90
5,1
Vedrijan
16,8
16,7
18,5
19
9,1
7,7
10,85
11,5
Table 1: Comparison of average observed (1950-2000) and average simulated (20412060) minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature on all three stations [°C]
Acknowledgments
Programme Mérimée
Congress
XI International Terroir Congress, Willamette Valley,
XI International Terroir Co
Oregon – July 10-14, 2016
Contact
igor.sirnik@topo.upv.es