Annual Report on Activities of the RSMC Tokyo

Transcription

Annual Report on Activities of
the RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center
2000
230700 August
Mature stage
stage of
Mature
of TY
TYBILIS
BILIS
220700UTC August
August 2000
220700UTC
2000
200700 August
Japan Meteorological Agency
Annual Report 2000
Table of Contents
Page
Introduction
Chapter 1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Chapter 2
Operations at the RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center in 2000
Analysis
Forecast
Provision of RSMC Products
RSMC Data Serving System
1
1
2
4
Major Activities of the RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center in 2000
2.1 Dissemination of RSMC Products
2.2 Publication
2.3 Monitoring of Observational Data Availability
Chapter 3
Atmospheric and Oceanographic Conditions in the Tropics
and Tropical Cyclones in 2000
3.1 Summary of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Conditions in the Tropics
3.2 Tropical Cyclones in 2000
Chapter 4
5
5
5
7
8
Verification of Forecasts in 2000
4.1 Operational Forecast
4.1.1 Center Position
4.1.2 Central Pressure and Maximum Wind Speed
10
10
13
4.2 TYM and GSM Predictions
4.2.1 TYM Prediction
4.2.2 GSM Prediction
14
14
17
Tropical Cyclones 2000
TY Damrey (0001) ------------------------- TY Soulik (0023)
1-24
Appendices
5
6
7
Code Forms of RSMC Products
List of GPV Products and Data on the RSMC Data Serving System
User’s Guide to the Attached CD-ROM
(Link to Excel/PowerPoint Files)
1
2
3
RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Tracks in 2000
Position and Intensity Forecast Errors for Each Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Cyclone Tracks in 2000
4
Monthly and Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones
X
SST Anomalies, Stream Lines and High-Cloud Amounts
- ii -
1-7
1
1-4
Annual Report 2000
Introduction
The RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center (hereinafter referred to as "the Center") is the
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) with activity specialization in analysis,
tracking and forecasting of western North Pacific tropical cyclones within the framework of
the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme of the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO). The Center was established at the Headquarters of the Japan Meteorological Agency
(JMA) in July 1989, following the designation by the WMO Executive Council at its 40th
session held in Geneva in June 1988.
The Center conducts following operations on a routine basis:
(1) Preparation of information on the formation, movement and development of
tropical cyclones and associated meteorological phenomena;
(2) Preparation of information on synoptic scale atmospheric situations that affect the
behavior of tropical cyclones; and
(3) Dissemination of the above information to national Meteorological Centers
(NMCs), in particular to the Members of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, in
appropriate formats for operational processing.
In addition to the routine services mentioned above, the Center distributes a series of
reports entitled “Annual Report on Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center” to serve
as operational references for the NMCs concerned. This report aims at summarizing the
activities of the Center and reviewing tropical cyclones of the year.
In this 2000 issue, the outline of routine operations at the Center and its operational
products are presented in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 reports the major activities of the Center in
2000. Chapter 3 describes atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropics and gives the
highlights of the tropical cyclone activities in 2000. In Chapter 4, verification statistics of
operational forecasts and predictions of the two numerical models of the Center are presented.
The best track data for the tropical cyclones in 2000 are shown in table and chart forms in
Appendices. All the texts, tables, charts and appendixes are included in a CD-ROM attached
to this report.
The CD-ROM contains 3-hourly cloud images of all the tropical cyclones in 2000 with TS
intensity or higher in the area of responsibility of the Center, and software to view them. The
software has various functions for analyzing satellite imagery such as animation of images,
which facilitates efficient post-analysis of tropical cyclones and their environments. A setup
program and a users manual for the software are also included in the CD-ROM. Appendix 7
shows an outline of the CD-ROM and how to use the software.
- iii -
Annual Report 2000
Chapter 1
Operations at the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center in 2000
The area of responsibility of the Center covers the western North Pacific and the South
China Sea (0° - 60°N, 100°E - 180°) including the marginal seas and adjacent land areas (see
Figure 1.1). The Center makes analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones when they are in or
expected to move into the area and provides the national Meteorological Services (NMSs)
concerned with the RSMC products through the GTS, the AFTN and the JMA radio facsimile
broadcast (JMH).
Figure 1.1
Area of responsibility (yellow) of the
RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center
1.1 Analysis
Surface analyses are performed four times a day, at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The tropical
cyclone analysis begins with the determination of the center position of a tropical cyclone.
Cloud images from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are the principal source
for the determination of the center position, especially of tropical cyclones migrating over the
data-sparse ocean area. The direction and speed of movement of a tropical cyclone are
determined primarily from the six-hourly displacement of the center position.
The central pressure of a tropical cyclone is determined mainly from the CI-number,
which is derived from the satellite imagery using Dvorak's method. The CI-number also gives
the maximum sustained wind speed in the vicinity of the center. Radii of circles for the galeforce wind and the storm-force wind are determined from surface observations and low-level
cloud motion winds (LCW) which are derived from the cloud motion of GMS images at
fifteen-minute intervals in the vicinity of the tropical cyclone.
1.2 Forecast
Predictions of the two numerical prediction models of JMA, Typhoon Model (TYM) and
Global Spectral Model (GSM), are the primary bases for the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks.
The Persistence-Climatology method (PC method) that uses statistical techniques on the
basis of linear extrapolation and climatological properties of tropical cyclone movements is
also adopted for tropical cyclones particularly in lower latitudes. The central pressure and the
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Annual Report 2000
maximum sustained wind speed are forecast based on the results of Dvorak's method, the PC
method and the numerical prediction.
The range into which the center of a tropical cyclone is expected to move with 70%
probability at each validation time is shown as the probability circle. The radius of the circle
is statistically determined according to the speed of tropical cyclone movement.
1.3 Provision of RSMC Products
The Center prepares and disseminates the following RSMC bulletins and charts via the
GTS, the AFTN or the JMH when:
-
a tropical cyclone of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher exists in the area of
responsibility of the Center;
-
a tropical cyclone is expected to reach TS intensity or higher in the area within 24
hours; or
-
a tropical cyclone of TS intensity or higher is expected to move into the area within
24 hours.
The RSMC products are continually issued as long as the tropical cyclone keeps TS
intensity or higher within the area of responsibility. Appendix 5 denotes the code forms of the
bulletins transmitted through the GTS.
RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory (WTPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS)
The RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory reports analysis, 24-hour, 48-hour and 72-hour
forecasts of a tropical cyclone for the following elements:
Analysis Center position of a tropical cyclone
Accuracy of determination of the center position
Direction and speed of movement
Central pressure
Maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute averaged)
Radii of over 50- and 30-knot wind areas
24-hour forecast
Center position and radius of the probability circle*
Central pressure
Maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute averaged)
48- and 72-hour forecast
Center position and radius of the probability circle*
* A circular range into which the tropical cyclone is expected to move with the probability
of 70% at each validation time.
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Annual Report 2000
RSMC Guidance for Forecast (FXPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS)
The RSMC Guidance for Forecast reports the results of numerical predictions of GSM
and TYM: GSM is run twice a day with initial analyses at 00 and 12 UTC and TYM
twice a day with initial analyses at 06 and 18 UTC. The Guidance presents GSM’s sixhourly predictions of a tropical cyclone up to 84 hours for 00 and 12 UTC and TYM’s
six-hourly predictions up to 78 hours for 06 and 18 UTC. It includes:
NWP prediction (T=06 to 78 or 84)
Center position of a tropical cyclone
Central pressure*
Maximum sustained wind speed*
* Predictions of these parameters are given as deviations from those at the initial time.
SAREP (TCNA20/21 RJTD: via GTS)
The SAREP reports a tropical cyclone analysis using GMS imagery including intensity
information (CI-number) based on Dvorak's method. It is issued a half to one hour after
observations at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC and contains:
GMS imagery analysis
Center position of a tropical cyclone
Accuracy of determination of the center position
Mean diameter of the cloud system
CI-number
Apparent change in intensity in the last 24 hours
RSMC Prognostic Reasoning (WTPQ30-35 RJTD: via GTS)
The RSMC Prognostic Reasoning provides a brief reasoning for a tropical cyclone
forecast. It is issued at 00 and 06 UTC following the issuance of the RSMC Tropical
Cyclone Advisory. In the bulletin, general comments on the forecasting method, synoptic
situation of the subtropical ridge, movement and intensity of tropical cyclones, and some
relevant remarks are described in plain language.
RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Track (AXPQ20 RJTD: via GTS)
The RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Track gives post-analyzed data of tropical cyclones. It
contains the center position, central pressure and maximum sustained wind. The Best
Track for a tropical cyclone is distributed generally one and a half months after the
termination of issuance of above RSMC bulletins for the tropical cyclone.
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Annual Report 2000
Tropical Cyclone Advisory for SIGMET (FKPQ30-35 RJTD: via AFTN)
The Center, as one of the Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres under the framework of the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), provides the Tropical Cyclone
Advisory for SIGMET for Meteorological Watch Offices (MWOs) concerned to support
the preparation of SIGMET information on a tropical cyclone. It includes analysis, 12hour, 24-hour forecasts of a tropical cyclone for the following elements:
Analysis and 12- and 24-hour forecasts
Center position of a tropical cyclone (analysis)
Center position of the tropical cyclone (forecast)
Central pressure
Maximum sustained wind speed (ten-minute averaged)
Prognostic Charts of 850-hPa and 200-hPa Streamline
(FUXT852/202, FUXT854/204: via JMH)
24- and 48-hour prognostic charts of 850-hPa and 200-hPa streamlines as well as 850hPa and 200-hPa analyses are broadcast via the JMA’s HF radio facsimile (JMH). These
prognoses are produced with GSM at 00 and 12 UTC over the area, 20°S to 60°N in
latitude and 80°E to 160°W in longitude.
1.4 RSMC Data Serving System
JMA has been operating the RSMC Data Serving System that allows NMCs concerned
to retrieve NWP products such as Grid Point Values (GPVs) and observational data through
the Internet or the Integrated Service Digital Network (ISDN) since 1995. The products and
data being provided through the system are listed in Appendix 6.
Tropical Cyclone Web Site:
Tropical cyclone advisories are available on a real time basis through the Internet at:
http://ddb.kishou.go.jp/typhoon/cyclone/cyclone.html.
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Annual Report 2000
Chapter 2
Major Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center in 2000
2.1 Dissemination of RSMC Products
In 2000, the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center provided operational products for tropical
cyclone forecasting to NMCs via the GTS, the AFTN and the JMA radio facsimile broadcast
(JMH). Monthly and annual total numbers of issuance of the products are listed in Table 2.1.
Table 2.1 Monthly and annual total number of products issued by the RSMC
Tokyo – Typhoon Center in 2000
TCNA20
TCNA21
WTPQ20-25
WTPQ30-35
FXPQ20-25
FKPQ30-35
AXPQ20
AUXT85/20
FUXT852/854
FUXT202/204
Notes:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
0
0
0
0
27
0
0
0
0
0
34
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
0
0
32
0
0
0
0
0
34
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
62
58
62
60
62
60
62
58
62
60
62
60
62
58
62
60
62
60
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
83 136 136
42
37
9 470
96 144 151
47
40
12 524
102 151 157
50
40
12 549
49
73
77
24
20
6 268
96 147 138
50
26
0 489
100 146 150
50
39
11 530
1
0
0
0
6
28
36
62
62
60
62
60
62 732
62
62
60
62
60
62 732
62
62
60
62
60
62 732
- via the GTS or the AFTN SAREP
RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory
RSMC Prognostic Reasoning
RSMC Guidance for Forecast
Tropical Cyclone Advisory for SIGMET
RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Track
TCNA20/21 RJTD
WTPQ20-25 RJTD
WTPQ30-35 RJTD
FXPQ20-25 RJTD
FKPQ30-35 RJTD
AXPQ20 RJTD
- via the JMH Meteorological Radio Facsimile Analysis of 850 and 200 hPa Streamline AUXT85/AUXT20
Prognosis of 850 hPa Streamline
FUXT852/FUXT854
Prognosis of 200 hPa Streamline
FUXT202/FUXT204
2.2 Publication
The Center published “Annual Report on Activities of the RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center
in 1999” in November 2000 with a CD-ROM, which contains data and GMS images of all the
tropical cyclones in 1999.
2.3 Monitoring of Observational Data Availability
The Center carried out regular monitoring of the information exchange for enhanced
observations of tropical cyclones in accordance with the standard procedures stipulated in
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Annual Report 2000
Section 6.2, Chapter 6 of “The Typhoon Committee Operational Manual (TOM) Meteorological Component.” The monitoring for this season was conducted for the following
two periods:
1.
2.
from 00UTC 20 August to 18UTC 24 August (for Typhoon Bilis (0010))
from 00UTC 28 August to 18UTC 1 September (for Typhoon Prapiroon (0012))
The results were distributed to all the Typhoon Committee Members in February 2001,
and are available on the Distributed Database of JMA at:
ftp://ddb.kishou.go.jp/pub/monitoring/rsmc.
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Annual Report 2000
Chapter 3
Atmospheric and Oceanographic Conditions in the Tropics
and Tropical Cyclones in 2000
3.1 Summary of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Conditions in the Tropics
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below normal in the central and eastern
Pacific throughout the year 2000, as in 1999. In January, negative SST anomalies
exceeding –1°C were found from the date line to 90°W, then this negative anomaly
weakened to nearly 0°C from spring to summer. The below-normal condition become
stronger again after the mid-autumn, and SST anomalies exceeding -1°C appeared
around 160°W and 140°W in December. In the western part, SSTs were above normal by
more than 0.5°C throughout the year. The SST normally for a El Niño monitoring region
(4°N - 4°S, 150°W - 90°W) was less than –0.5°C in January, February, November and
December. The five-month running average of the anomaly was –0.5°C from June 1999 to
March 2000. La Niña condition continued from the summer of 1999 to the spring of 2000.
Maps of monthly mean SST anomalies are held on the attached CD-ROM.
Convective activities were above normal from the Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia
and Australia, while below normal over the central Pacific. This anomalous distribution
pattern typical in La Niña conditions was observed throughout this year. The inter
tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) from the central to eastern Pacific was weak in the
beginning of this year, and enhanced after spring and throughout summer, in the eastern
and central Pacific, respectively.
The center of large-scale divergence at 200 hPa had been shifted westward from its
normal position except in July and August. At 850 hPa wind field, anomalous westerly
was dominant from the equatorial Indian
Ocean to Indonesia, while anomalous
easterly was enhanced along the western
to central Pacific. At 200 hPa, wind
anomalies opposite of those at 850 hPa
was prevailed from the Indian Ocean to
the Pacific along the equator. Associated
with these wind anomalies, Walker
Circulation was stronger than normal
throughout 2000.
In summer the sub-tropical high
sifted to the north and its extension
toward the west was weak compared to
the normal year. In consequence many
tropical cyclones moved northward
without recurving along the western
periphery of the high. Figure 3.1 presents
monthly mean stream line and tropical
Figure 3.1 Monthly mean stream line at 850
hPa and area of high-cloud amount greater
than 30% (shaded) in July 2000. Tracks of the
tropical cyclones (red lines) formed in July are
superimposed.
7
Annual Report 2000
cyclone tracks in July.
Other maps of monthly mean stream lines at 850 hPa and 200 hPa, and high-cloud
amounts for the months from April to December are included in the attached CD-ROM.
3.2 Tropical Cyclones in 2000
In 2000, 23 tropical cyclones
of tropical storm (TS) intensity or
higher were tracked in the area of
responsibility of the RSMC Tokyo
– Typhoon Center. The total
number is smaller than the
thirty-year-average of 27.8 for
1961-90. Thirteen cyclones out of
them (57% of the total) reached
typhoon (TY) intensity; the
percentage is slightly larger than
normal (54%). Three out of the
remainder
attained
severe
tropical storm (STS) intensity
and seven of the rest remained at
TS intensity (see Table 3.1).
Figure 3.2 Genesis points of 23 tropical
cyclones in 2000 (dots) and frequency
distribution of the genesis points of tropical
cyclones for 1951-2000 (contour), unit:
number of TCs in each 4°x4°square.
The tropical cyclone season of this
year began in early May, about one month
and a half later than normal, with the
development of Damrey. After the second cyclone formed near the Philippines in mid-May,
tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea was
suppressed for more than one month. No tropical cyclone of TS intensity or higher was
generated in June.
In July cyclogenesis became active and five storms formed in total within the month.
Four of them took northward tracks along the western periphery of the sub-tropical high.
Among the four Kirogi, Tembin and Bolaven passed by the Japanese Archipelago.
Bolaven hit the southern edge of the Korean Peninsula and Kai-tak skirted the eastern
coast of the central China.
From August to September tropical cyclone activity was normal. Six and five storms
were generated in August and September, respectively. Among them Jelawat, Bilis and
Maria made landfall on China, Kaemi and Wukong on the Indo-China Peninsula, and
Prapiroon and Saomai on the Korean Peninsula during the period. These storms caused
major damage to these regions. In particular Bilis, the most intense typhoon of this
season, affected Taiwan seriously.
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Annual Report 2000
In late September cyclone activity was depressed again and no tropical cyclone of TS
intensity or higher was tracked for almost one month until Yagi formed in late October.
All the four tropical cyclones after Yagi became tropical storms east of the Philippines and
three of them (Xangsane, Bebinca and Rumbia) made landfall on the Philippines in
succession.
Other features of the tropical cyclone activity in 2000 were as follows:
-
Tropical cyclones in 2000 tended to form in higher latitudes following a similar
tendency in the last season. Nine storms (39%) out of the total of 23 formed in
latitudes higher than 20°N in contrast with 24% in the normal year (see Figure 3.2);
-
Movement of tropical cyclones was slower than normal particularly in waters of
higher latitudes; and
-
There were many tropical cyclones which moved persistently northward through
their lives without recurving.
RSMC best track data for the tropical cyclones in 2000 and maps of their tracks are
shown in Appendices 1 and 3, respectively. Appendix 4 indicates the monthly and annual
frequency of tropical cyclones that attained TS intensity or higher in the western North
Pacific and the South China Sea for 1951- 2000.
Table 3.1 List of the tropical cyclones which attained TS intensity or higher in 2000
Tropical Cyclone
TY
TS
TY
TY
TS
STS
TS
TY
TY
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
STS
TY
TY
TY
STS
TS
TY
DAMREY
LONGWANG
KIROGI
KAI-TAK
TEMBIN
BOLAVEN
CHANCHU
JELAWAT
EWINIAR
BILIS
KAEMI
PRAPIROON
MARIA
SAOMAI
BOPHA
WUKONG
SONAMU
SHANSHAN
YAGI
XANGSANE
BEBINCA
RUMBIA
SOULIK
(0001)
(0002)
(0003)
(0004)
(0005)
(0006)
(0007)
(0008)
(0009)
(0010)
(0011)
(0012)
(0013)
(0014)
(0015)
(0016)
(0017)
(0018)
(0019)
(0020)
(0021)
(0022)
(0023)
070000
190000
030600
051800
190000
251800
281800
011200
091800
190600
211200
261800
281200
021200
061800
060000
150300
181200
220000
260600
010000
281200
300000
Duration
(UTC)
May - 120600
May - 200000
Jul
- 081800
Jul
- 101200
Jul
- 211200
Jul
- 302100
Jul
- 291200
Aug - 101200
Aug - 180600
Aug - 230600
Aug - 220600
Aug - 010600
Aug - 010000
Sep - 160000
Sep - 101800
Sep - 100600
Sep - 180000
Sep - 241200
Oct - 262100
Oct - 010900
Nov - 061800
Nov - 301200
Dec - 041200
May
May
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jan
Minimum Pressure & Max. Wind
(UTC)
(N)
(E) (hPa)
(kt)
091200 17.3 135.3 930
90
191800 24.7 130.8 990
45
050000 20.8 131.9 940
85
070000 19.6 118.6 960
75
191800 29.4 142,1 992
40
290600 29.1 128.7 980
50
290000 13.0 176.4 996
35
030000 23.6 145.5 940
85
151800 36.1 150.8 975
65
211800 20.3 125.1 920 110
220000 15.5 109.2 985
40
301200 29.8 123.2 965
70
310000 20.2 116.1 985
40
101200 24.3 132.4 925
95
091200 24.3 123.8 988
45
080600 18.8 113.4 955
75
170300 32.1 141.8 980
55
211200 22.9 165.6 925
95
241800 24.1 125.5 965
70
300600 16.7 118.8 960
75
051200 18.5 116.8 980
60
281800
8.5 130.8 990
40
031200 17.9 135.9 955
80
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Annual Report 2000
Chapter 4
Verification of Forecasts in 2000
4.1
Operational Forecast
Operational forecasts of the tropical cyclones of TS intensity or higher in 2000 were
verified with the best track data. Verified elements are 24-hour forecasts of the center position,
central pressure and maximum sustained wind, and 48-hour and 72-hour forecasts of the
center position. Position and intensity errors of operational forecasts for each tropical cyclone
in 2000 are indicated in Appendix 2 (as Table 4.2).
4.1.1 Center position
Annual Means of Position Errors
POSITION ERROR (km)
600
Figure 4.1 shows annual mean errors of
24-hour (1982 to 2000), 48-hour (1988 to
2000) and 72-hour (1997 to 2000) forecasts of
center positions. Annual mean position errors
in 2000 were 153 km for 24-hour forecast, 282
km for 48-hour forecast and 404 km for 72hour forecast. The 24-hour forecast was
better than 171 km of 1999, but the 72-hour
forecast was slightly worth than 389 km of
1999. The 48-hour forecast was nearly equal
to that of 1999.
500
72-hou
400
300
200
100
48-hour
24-hour
0
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
YEAR
Figure 4.1 Annual means of position errors
of 24-, 48- and 72-hour operational track
forecasts.
Position errors of 24-, 48- and 72-hour track forecasts for each tropical cyclone are
summarized in Table 4.1. Among the cyclones in this season, TY Jelawat, TY Bilis and TY
Wukong, which took steady westward courses almost in their whole lives, scored well in the
forecasts, while TY Kai-tak, TS Maria, TS Bopha etc. were rather difficult to forecast because
of their erratic movement.
Position errors were also compared to those by the persistency (PER) method. The ratios
of EO (position errors of operational forecasts) to EP (position errors of PER-method forecasts)
in percentage are described in the Table 4.1. EO/EP smaller (greater) than 100% means that
operational forecasts are better (worse) than PER-method forecasts. Annual mean EO/EPs for
the 24-, 48- and 72-hour forecasts in 2000 were 64% (61% in 1999), 50% (52%) and 43% (45%),
respectively. The ratios for 2000 were similar to those for 1999, and the EO/EPs for the 48and 72-hour forecasts were the best since 1988 and 1997, respectively.
Figure 4.2 presents the histogram of 24-, 48- and 72-hour forecast position errors. The
ratio of 24-hour forecast errors smaller than 150 km was 59% (50% in 1999), the ratio of 48hour forecast errors smaller than 300 km was 69% (56%) and the ratio of 72-hour forecast
errors smaller than 450 km was 70% (70%).
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Annual Report 2000
Tropical Cyclone
24-hour Forecast
48-hour Forecast
Position Error & Number of Forecast
Mean
S.D.
Num.
EO/EP
DAMREY
LONGWANG
KIROGI
KAI-TAK
TEMBIN
BOLAVEN
CHANCHU
JELAWAT
EWINIAR
BILIS
KAEMI
PRAPIROON
MARIA
SAOMAI
BOPHA
WUKONG
SONAMU
SHANSHAN
YAGI
XANGSANE
BEBINCA
RUMBIA
SOULIK
(0001)
(0002)
(0003)
(0004)
(0005)
(0006)
(0007)
(0008)
(0009)
(0010)
(0011)
(0012)
(0013)
(0014)
(0015)
(0016)
(0017)
(0018)
(0019)
(0020)
(0021)
(0022)
(0023)
Annual Mean (Total)
Mean
S.D.
Num
EO/EP
(km)
(km)
(%)
(km)
(km)
(%)
(km)
(km)
173
134
144
171
104
131
82
196
103
145
227
162
142
98
133
157
194
188
142
188
184
81
74
127
70
56
31
166
34
64
57
158
97
41
61
84
99
105
76
40
89
18
1
19
16
7
17
0
33
31
13
0
19
11
48
13
14
8
21
16
21
20
5
19
78
70
63
66
78
70
42
71
46
107
66
50
84
22
58
94
77
84
59
73
250
206
491
221
225
143
294
188
222
538
339
449
142
238
273
419
360
220
241
257
124
80
324
42
113
41
248
96
50
47
293
288
76
72
210
185
144
100
133
14
0
15
12
3
13
0
29
27
9
0
15
7
44
9
10
4
17
11
17
16
1
15
46
37
67
1017
55
45
27
90
30
91
67
55
41
14
46
80
58
53
45
290
214
589
299
203
402
309
399
973
437
1406
218
369
742
561
276
317
144
92
265
130
62
269
79
155
88
414
409
71
338
177
208
82
172
10
0
11
8
9
0
25
23
5
0
11
3
40
5
6
0
13
7
13
12
0
11
(%)
25
22
52
47
39
24
76
34
71
57
139
40
41
81
53
33
35
153
107
370
64
282
212
288
50
404
330
212
43
Table 4.1 Mean position errors of 24-, 48- and 72- hour operational forecasts for
each tropical cyclone in 2000
48-hour Track Forecast
900- 950
1050-1100
750- 800
900- 950
600- 650
750- 800
Error (km)
Error (km)
450- 500
300- 350
600- 650
450- 500
300- 350
150- 200
150- 200
0- 50
0- 50
0
20
40
60
80
0
100
20
40
60
Number of cases
Number of cases
Figure 4.2 Position error distribution of
24-, 48- and 72-hour operational
forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2000.
1000-1050
Error (km)
TY
TS
TY
TY
TS
STS
TS
TY
TY
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
STS
TY
TY
TY
STS
TS
TY
72-hour Forecast
Mean
S.D.
Num.
EO/EP
800- 850
600- 650
400- 450
200- 250
0- 50
0
10
20
30
40
Number of cases
11
Annual Report 2000
Table 4.3 presents mean hitting ratios and radii of 70% probability circles of operational
forecasts for each tropical cyclone in 2000. The annual mean radius of 70% probability circles
issued for 24-hour position forecasts was 187 km, and their hitting ratio was 72% (in 268 out
of 370 cases, a tropical cyclone actually located within the issued probability circle). As for
48-hour forecasts, those are 327 km and 71% (in 204 out of 288 cases) respectively, and for
72-hour forecasts, 482 km and 73% (in 154 out of 212 cases) respectively. The hitting ratios for
24-hour and 48-hour forecasts were 16% and 12% higher respectively, while the one for 72hour forecasts was the same, compared to the ratio in 1999.
Tropical Cyclone
24-hour Forecast
hitting cases /
number of cases
TY
TS
TY
TY
TS
STS
TS
TY
TY
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
STS
TY
TY
TY
STS
TS
TY
DAMREY
(0001)
LONGWANG (0002)
KIROGI
(0003)
KAI-TAK
(0004)
TEMBIN
(0005)
BOLAVEN
(0006)
CHANCHU
(0007)
JELAWAT
(0008)
EWINIAR
(0009)
BILIS
(0010)
KAEMI
(0011)
PRAPIROON (0012)
MARIA
(0013)
SAOMAI
(0014)
BOPHA
(0015)
WUKONG
(0016)
SONAMU
(0017)
SHANSHAN (0018)
YAGI
(0019)
XANGSANE (0020)
BEBINCA
(0021)
RUMBIA
(0022)
SOULIK
(0023)
Annual Mean (Total)
10/18
1/1
14/19
11/16
5/7
15/17
33/33
20/31
13/13
0/0
11/19
3/11
37/48
9/13
14/14
7/8
16/21
8/16
11/21
16/20
3/5
11/19
268/370
Ratio
48-hour Forecast
Radius hitting cases /
(%)
(km)
56
100
74
69
71
88
100
65
100
58
27
77
69
100
88
76
50
52
80
60
58
177
241
191
175
177
185
184
189
202
191
184
193
191
184
192
190
185
188
186
189
179
72
187
number of cases
9/14
15/15
5/12
3/3
10/13
29/29
21/27
8/9
15/15
0/7
27/44
4/9
10/10
3/4
13/17
4/11
5/17
12/16
1/1
10/15
204/288
Ratio
72-hour Forecast
Radius hitting cases /
(%)
(km)
64
100
42
100
77
100
78
89
100
0
61
44
100
75
77
36
29
75
100
67
328
373
332
321
331
311
319
342
345
323
321
323
315
417
318
327
318
327
315
327
71
327
number of cases
9/10
11/11
5/8
8/9
25/25
16/23
5/5
7/11
0/3
27/40
0/5
6/6
10/13
0/7
4/13
12/12
9/11
154/212
Ratio
Radius
(%)
(km)
90
100
63
89
100
70
100
64
0
68
0
100
77
0
31
100
82
491
539
510
513
461
492
463
481
463
464
517
451
472
463
456
502
504
73
482
Table 4.3 Mean hitting ratios(%) and radii (km) of 70% probability circles issued for 24-,
48- and 72-hour operational forecasts for each tropical cyclone in 2000
12
Annual Report 2000
4.1.2 Central pressure and maximum wind speed
Figure 4.3 (left) presents the histogram of central pressure errors for 24-hour forecasts.
The annual mean error was -1.2 hPa (-0.8 hPa in 1999) with a root mean square error (RMSE)
of 13.0 hPa (9.3 hPa). The ratio of absolute errors smaller than 7.5 hPa was 54% (64%). The
histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 24-hour forecasts is also shown in the right side
of the Figure. The annual mean error was +0.8 m/s (+0.3 m/s in 1999) with a RMSE of 5.9 m/s
(4.6 m/s). 54% (65%) of total forecasts had errors smaller than 3.75 m/s. The overall
performance of intensity forecasts in 2000 was slightly worse than that in 1999. TY Bilis and
TY Soulik, which made rapid development and weakening, were particularly difficult in their
intensity forecasts.
24-hour Maximum Wind Forecast
24-hour Central Pressure Forecast
47.5 ～ 52.5
21.25 ～ 23.75
37.5 ～ 42.5
16.25 ～ 18.75
27.5 ～ 32.5
11.25 ～ 13.75
6.25 ～ 8.75
7.5 ～ 12.5
Error (m/s)
Error (hPa)
17.5 ～ 22.5
-2.5 ～ 2.5
-7.5 ～-12.5
1.25 ～ 3.75
-1.25 ～　-3.75
-6.25 ～　-8.75
-17.5 ～ -22.5
-11.25 ～-13.75
-27.5 ～ -32.5
-16.25 ～-18.75
-37.5 ～ -42.5
-21.25 ～-23.75
-47.5 ～ -52.5
0
20
40
60
Number of cases
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Number of cases
Figure 4.3 Error distribution of 24-hour central pressure (hPa) and maximum wind
speed (m/s) forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2000.
13
Annual Report 2000
4.2 TYM and GSM Predictions
Predictions
JMA’s Typhoon Model (TYM) and Global Spectral Model (GSM) provide primary
information for forecasters at the RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center to make operational track
and intensity forecasts. Track predictions by TYM and GSM up to 78 and 84 hour, respectively,
were verified with the best track data and predictions by the persistency (PER) method. 24hour, 48-hour and 72-hour intensity predictions by TYM and GSM were also verified with
these data. The PER-method assumes that a tropical cyclone holds its intensity and
movement throughout the forecast period based upon the linear extrapolation of the latest 6hour track of a tropical cyclone. Prediction errors by the PER-method are used to evaluate the
relative performance of model predictions.
700
600
Error (km)
4.2.1 TYM prediction
1) Center position
500
400
300
Annual mean position errors of TYM
200
predictions since 1996 are indicated in Figure
100
4.4. In 2000, a total of 224 predictions were
0
made by TYM and errors for 30-hour*, 5418
30
42
54
66
78
hour* and 78-hour* predictions in 2000 were
Prediction Time (hour)
173 km, 313 km and 502 km, respectively.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
The performance of TYM track prediction in
2000 was almost the same as in 1999 for the
Figure 4.4 TYM annual mean position
forecast period for 30-hours, but worse from
errors since 1996.
42-hours to
78-hours compared to the
previous year. Mean position errors of 18-, 30-, 42-, 54-, 66- and 78-hour predictions for each
tropical cyclone are also shown in Table 4.4.
Note: 30-, 54- and 78-hour predictions by TYM and GSM are the primary information for forecasters in
preparing 24-, 48- and 72-hour operational forecasts, respectively.
Tropical Cyclone
TY
TS
TY
TY
TS
STS
TS
TY
TY
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
STS
TY
TY
TY
STS
TS
TY
0001 DAMREY
0002 LONGWANG
0003 KIROGI
0004 KAI-TAK
0005 TEMBIN
0006 BOLAVEN
0007 CHANCHU
0008 JELAWAT
0009 EWINIAR
0010 BILIS
0011 KAEMI
0012 PRAPIROON
0013 MARIA
0014 SAOMAI
0015 BOPHA
0016 WUKONG
0017 SONAMU
0018 SHANSHAN
0019 YAGI
0020 XANGSANE
0021 BEBINCA
0022 RUMBIA
0023 SOULIK
Annual Mean
T=18
T=30
T=42
T=54
T=66
T=78
158.3 (11)
201.7 (1)
82.8 (10)
125.5 (12)
111.8 (5)
103.9 (10)
370.3 (3)
57.9 (19)
119.0 (19)
82.8 (8)
181.1 (2)
111.5 (12)
106.2 (8)
140.5 (18)
115.3 (11)
84.7 (8)
118.4 (5)
104.4 (12)
167.8 (10)
112.0 (11)
134.8 (12)
108.6 (6)
128.0 (11)
118.2 (224)
231.0 (10)
(-)
117.7 (9)
201.1 (11)
105.4 (4)
132.6 (9)
418.3 (2)
90.8 (18)
172.0 (18)
79.0 (7)
216.9 (1)
147.6 (11)
190.0 (7)
268.1 (17)
156.6 (8)
143.7 (8)
192.5 (4)
140.5 (11)
220.0 (6)
174.6 (10)
212.1 (11)
203.3 (5)
194.6 (10)
173.2 (197)
293.7 (9)
(-)
129.4 (8)
301.7 (10)
181.6 (3)
167.3 (8)
547.3 (1)
139.4 (17)
198.6 (17)
109.4 (6)
(-)
185.9 (10)
292.3 (6)
420.1 (16)
270.9 (8)
163.1 (7)
253.0 (3)
178.9 (10)
356.7 (6)
264.1 (9)
244.0 (10)
287.2 (4)
274.0 (9)
238.9 (177)
348.4 (8)
(-)
241.4 (7)
414.0 (9)
208.8 (2)
208.4 (7)
(-)
193.0 (16)
239.0 (16)
200.9 (5)
(-)
286.7 (9)
436.9 (4)
570.5 (15)
403.3 (7)
193.3 (6)
190.7 (2)
240.7 (9)
532.0 (6)
351.8 (8)
275.7 (9)
313.9 (3)
255.0 (8)
313.3 (156)
393.4 (7)
(-)
294.8 (6)
581.2 (8)
271.6 (1)
250.4 (6)
(-)
251.4 (15)
315.9 (15)
213.1 (4)
(-)
383.2 (8)
554.4 (3)
719.7 (14)
504.9 (6)
232.2 (5)
325.7 (1)
276.8 (8)
581.5 (5)
461.0 (7)
317.3 (8)
275.9 (2)
267.3 (7)
389.2 (136)
403.6 (6)
(-)
249.6 (5)
877.0 (7)
(-)
344.5 (5)
(-)
308.9 (14)
431.7 (14)
343.4 (3)
(-)
476.2 (7)
887.3 (2)
850.3 (13)
779.9 (4)
369.7 (4)
(-)
411.2 (7)
724.0 (4)
623.2 (6)
318.1 (7)
221.1 (1)
338.5 (6)
501.6 (115)
Table 4.4
Mean position
errors (km) of
TYM for each
tropical cyclone
in 2000.
14
Annual Report 2000
Table 4.5 gives TYM’s relative performance compared to the PER-method. In this
comparison, life stages of tropical cyclones were classified into three categories, “Before”,
“During” and “After” recurvature. Each stage is defined with the direction of movement of
each tropical cyclone at each prediction time concerned. The Table indicates that TYM
outperformed the PER-method throughout the whole forecast period beyond 18 hours from
the initial time and improvement rates were roughly 30% for 18-hour, 40% for 30-hour, 45%
for 42-hour and 50% for 54-hour to 78-hour predictions. Looking at the results of respective
stages, improvement rates were relatively higher in “During” and “After” stages in which
position errors were larger compared with “Before” stage.
Figure 4.5 (in the attached CD-ROM) presents histograms of the position errors of 30-,
54- and 78-hour predictions of TYM. The ratio of 24-hour prediction errors smaller than 150
km was 47% (46% in 1999), the ratio of 54-hour prediction errors smaller than 300 km was
61% (67%) and the ratio of 78-hour prediction errors smaller than 450 km was 57% (58%).
TIME
MODEL
(moving direction)
Before
(180°-320°)
During
(320°-10°)
After
(10°-180°)
All
(0°-360°)
T=18
TYM
PER
IMPROV
110.2 (102)
140.3 (102)
21.5 %
124.0
(45)
179.3
(45)
30.8 %
125.3
(77)
190.2
(77)
34.1 %
118.2 (224)
165.3 (224)
28.5 %
T=30
TYM
PER
IMPROV
167.6
(91)
246.0
(91)
31.8 %
160.7
(37)
306.4
(37)
47.6 %
187.3
(69)
337.8
(69)
44.6 %
173.2 (197)
289.5 (197)
40.2 %
T=42
TYM
PER
IMPROV
222.2
(79)
355.5
(79)
37.5 %
226.5
(33)
428.2
(33)
47.1 %
265.7
(65)
553.2
(65)
52.0 %
238.9 (177)
441.7 (177)
45.9 %
T=54
TYM
PER
IMPROV
301.1
(66)
503.8
(66)
40.2 %
306.8
(29)
581.1
(29)
47.2 %
329.7
(61)
771.0
(61)
57.2 %
313.3 (156)
622.7 (156)
49.7 %
T=66
TYM
PER
IMPROV
370.5
(53)
600.6
(53)
38.3 %
415.5
(27)
774.6
(27)
46.4 %
394.3
(56)
1013.5
(56)
61.1 %
389.2 (136)
805.1 (136)
51.7 %
T=78
TYM
PER
IMPROV
441.0
(41)
827.1
(41)
46.7 %
465.4
(24)
824.7
(24)
43.6 %
568.7
(50)
1212.7
(50)
53.1 %
501.6 (115)
994.2 (115)
49.6 %
Table 4.5 Mean position errors (km) of TYM and PER predictions for the tropical
cyclones in 2000 in each stage of motion. Number of samples is given in parentheses
15
Annual Report 2000
2) Central pressure and maximum wind speed
TYM has a certain plus bias in the central pressure prediction and that for 30-hour
predictions in 2000 was +5.2 hPa with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 15.6 hPa.
Meanwhile the bias for 30-hour maximum wind speed predictions was –1.4 m/s with a RMSE
of 7.1 m/s. Figure 4.6 shows histograms of the errors of 30-hour central pressure and
maximum wind speed predictions. About 52% of the central pressure predictions had errors
with absolute values less than 7.5 hPa, while 44% of the maximum wind speed predictions
with absolute values less than 3.75 m/s.
Errors (hPa)
Error (m/s)
30-hour TYM Predictions
for Center Position
+40
+17.5
+35
+15.0
+30
+12.5
+25
30-hour TYM Predictions
for Maximum Wind
+10.0
+20
+7.5
+15
+5.0
+10
+5
+2.5
0
0
-5
-2.5
-10
-5.0
-15
-7.5
-20
-10.0
-25
-12.5
-30
-35
-15.0
-40
-17.5
0
10
20
30
Number of Cases
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Number of Cases
Figure 4.6 Error distribution of TYM 30-hour intensity predictions of tropical cyclones
16
Annual Report 2000
4.2.2 GSM Prediction
600
1) Center position
Error (km)
500
400
GSM annual mean position errors
300
since 1996 indicated in Figure 4.7 show
that the overall performance of GSM
200
track predictions in 2000 was the best
100
in the years. The errors for 30-hour, 540
hour and 78-hour predictions were 165
18
30
42
54
66
78
km, 276 km and 402 km, respectively.
Forecast time (hour)
Although prediction cases of GSM and
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
TYM were not homogeneous, the errors
of GSM were smaller than TYM
particularly in later hours of forecast
Figure 4.7 GSM annual mean position errors
since 1996.
period. The improvement of the
performance of GSM in 2000 owes to the
recent version-up of GSM made in December 1999. The version-up included the incorporation
of cloud water content as a prognostic variable, a modification of the prognostic ArakawaSchubert cumulus parameterization, and the calculation of direct effect of aerosols on shortwave radiation.
A total of 239 predictions was made by GSM in 2000 and mean position errors of the 18-,
30-, 42-, 54-, 66- and 78-hour predictions for each tropical cyclone are given in Table 4.6.
Table 4.7 gives GSM’s relative performance compared to the PER-method. Improvement
rates were roughly 35% for 18-hour, 45% for 30-hour, 55% for 42-hour, 55% to 60% for 54-, 66and 78-hour predictions. The percentage is relatively high in “during” and “After” stage. The
rates were about 5% to 10% higher than TYM in almost whole stages at each prediction time.
Tropical Cyclone
TY
TS
TY
TY
TS
STS
TS
TY
TY
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
STS
TY
TY
TY
STS
TS
TY
0001 DAMREY
0002 LONGWANG
0003 KIROGI
0004 KAI-TAK
0005 TEMBIN
0006 BOLAVEN
0007 CHANCHU
0008 JELAWAT
0009 EWINIAR
0010 BILIS
0011 KAEMI
0012 PRAPIROON
0013 MARIA
0014 SAOMAI
0015 BOPHA
0016 WUKONG
0017 SONAMU
0018 SHANSHAN
0019 YAGI
0020 XANGSANE
0021 BEBINCA
0022 RUMBIA
0023 SOULIK
Annual Mean
T=18
129.8 (11)
195.2
(1)
43.6 (10)
120.3 (13)
97.2
(5)
97.1 (11)
347.0
(2)
63.4 (18)
109.8 (20)
100.9
(9)
144.3
(2)
133.0 (12)
108.2
(8)
101.0 (26)
117.1 (11)
78.0 (10)
140.3
(6)
101.8 (12)
112.1 (10)
127.8 (12)
124.5 (12)
126.6
(6)
172.4 (12)
111.3 (239)
T=30
202.8 (10)
(-)
88.5
(9)
188.7 (12)
96.5
(4)
146.6 (10)
471.2
(1)
102.7 (17)
134.4 (19)
126.5
(8)
100.6
(1)
173.1 (11)
184.3
(7)
167.1 (25)
141.3 (10)
117.4
(9)
185.2
(5)
177.2 (11)
219.5
(9)
209.5 (11)
183.3 (11)
245.7
(5)
242.5 (11)
165.4 (216)
T=42
228.5
(9)
(-)
162.6
(8)
275.8 (11)
156.4
(3)
225.3
(9)
(-)
139.8 (16)
160.0 (18)
138.7
(7)
(-)
181.6 (10)
313.9
(6)
263.0 (24)
215.2
(9)
147.0
(8)
133.9
(3)
248.5 (10)
270.3
(7)
265.4 (10)
213.8 (10)
376.1
(4)
274.0 (10)
218.3 (192)
T=54
250.9
(8)
(-)
203.1
(7)
406.8 (10)
208.7
(2)
314.1
(8)
(-)
141.7 (15)
208.1 (17)
193.5
(6)
(-)
218.8
(9)
406.1
(4)
394.2 (23)
300.3
(8)
203.0
(7)
185.1
(2)
282.2
(9)
243.8
(5)
286.7
(9)
258.1
(9)
455.4
(3)
305.7
(9)
275.8 (170)
T=66
263.2
(7)
(-)
225.7
(6)
589.7
(9)
425.5
(1)
413.3
(7)
(-)
161.4 (14)
238.8 (16)
254.1
(5)
(-)
239.8
(8)
510.0
(2)
502.2 (21)
367.7
(6)
287.3
(6)
311.8
(1)
298.2
(8)
410.9
(5)
355.8
(8)
301.3
(8)
484.4
(2)
383.4
(8)
342.1 (148)
T=78
273.0
(6)
(-)
199.2
(5)
855.1
(8)
(-)
301.5
(5)
(-)
178.2 (13)
329.3 (15)
295.1
(4)
(-)
276.7
(7)
(-)
556.2 (19)
606.3
(4)
446.5
(5)
(-)
332.5
(7)
441.8
(3)
406.4
(7)
310.4
(7)
562.9
(1)
515.2
(7)
401.8 (123)
Table 4.6 Mean position errors (km) of GSM for each tropical cyclone in 2000
17
Annual Report 2000
TIME
MODEL
(moving direction)
Before
(180°-320°)
During
(320°-10°)
After
(10°-180°)
All
(0°-360°)
T=18
GSM
PER
IMPROV
103.9 (108)
150.5 (108)
31.0 %
108.7
(52)
205.5
(52)
47.1 %
123.2
(79)
183.2
(79)
32.8 %
111.3 (239)
173.3 (239)
35.8 %
T=30
GSM
PER
IMPROV
159.8
(96)
256.2
(96)
37.6 %
170.2
(46)
352.4
(46)
51.7 %
169.7
(74)
356.5
(74)
52.4 %
165.4 (216)
311.0 (216)
46.8 %
T=42
GSM
PER
IMPROV
201.1
(85)
387.2
(85)
48.1 %
214.6
(38)
534.8
(38)
59.9 %
241.6
(69)
532.1
(69)
54.6 %
218.3 (192)
468.5 (192)
53.4 %
T=54
GSM
PER
IMPROV
258.8
(76)
508.7
(76)
49.1 %
293.2
(33)
777.5
(33)
62.3 %
287.5
(61)
727.1
(61)
60.5 %
275.8 (170)
639.2 (170)
56.9 %
T=66
GSM
PER
IMPROV
308.8
(62)
648.2
(62)
52.4 %
374.6
(29)
890.1
(29)
57.9 %
361.8
(57)
961.2
(57)
62.4 %
342.1 (148)
816.1 (148)
58.1 %
T=78
GSM
PER
IMPROV
356.0
(48)
771.2
(48)
53.8 %
399.1
(27)
869.8
(27)
54.1 %
449.1
(48)
1272.9
(48)
64.7 %
401.8 (123)
988.7 (123)
59.4 %
Table 4.7
Mean position
errors (km) of GSM
and PER predictions
for the tropical
cyclones in 2000 in
each stage of motion
Figure 4.8 (in the attached CD-ROM) presents histograms of the position errors of 30-,
54- and 78-hour predictions of GSM. The ratio of 30-hour prediction errors smaller than 150
km was 58% (43% in 1999), the ratio of 54-hour prediction errors smaller than 300 km was
70% (58%) and the ratio of 78-hour prediction errors smaller than 450 km was 72% (70%). The
overall performance of track forecasts in 2000 was better than that in 1999 as already
described in the first paragraph of this section.
2) Central pressure and maximum wind speed
Figure 4.9 shows histograms of central pressure errors and the maximum wind speed
errors of 30-hour predictions of GSM. About 45% of the predictions had absolute errors less
than 7.5 hPa, while predictions with errors smaller than 3.75 m/s account for 30% of the total.
The performance of intensity predictions in 2000 was considerably improved due to the
version-up of GSM in December 1999. However, the histograms show that GSM still
underestimates the intensity of tropical cyclones in its 30-hour predictions.
30-hour GSM Predictions
for Central Pressure
Error (hPa)
+35
30-hour GSM predictions
for Maximum Wind
Error (m/s)
+15.0
+25
+10.0
+15
+5.0
+5
0
-5
Figure 4.9
Error distribution of
30-hour GSM
intensity predictions
-5.0
-15
-10.0
-25
-15.0
-35
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
18
TY DAMREY (0001)
A tropical depression formed east-northeast of Palau Islands at 18UTC 4 May 2000.
Moving northwestward, the depression attained TS intensity at 00UTC 7 May and was
named Damrey, the first one from the new name list that became effective 1 January 2000 for
tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. It then began to move
northeastward east of the Philippines and developed into a typhoon on the following day.
Accelerating gradually, Damrey reached peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of
90 knots at 06UTC 9 May. It further continued to move northeastward for a couple of days
with gradual weakening and crossed around Ogasawara-shoto (islands) south of Japan
around 12UTC 11 May. Turning to the east, it downgraded to a tropical storm at 06UTC on
the following day and became an extra-tropical cyclone at 12UTC of the day.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY DAMREY (0001)
May 04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/18
06/00
06/06
06/12
06/18
07/00
07/06
07/12
07/18
08/00
08/06
08/12
08/18
09/00
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/00
10/06
10/12
10/18
11/00
11/03
8.8
9.7
9.9
10.2
10.7
11.1
11.8
12.5
13.0
13.2
13.5
13.5
13.7
14.0
14.3
14.5
15.1
15.6
16.4
17.3
18.7
19.5
20.8
22.2
23.0
23.7
24.5
137.5
136.0
135.0
134.4
133.7
133.0
132.2
132.2
131.8
131.6
131.2
131.1
131.4
131.5
132.0
132.4
133.0
133.5
134.4
135.3
136.0
136.8
137.8
138.8
139.5
139.9
140.5
1004
1004
1004
1004
1002
1000
1000
1000
996
992
985
980
975
970
965
960
955
945
935
930
930
935
945
955
960
965
970
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
45 TS
55 STS
55 STS
60 STS
65 TY
70 TY
75 TY
75 TY
80 TY
90 TY
90 TY
90 TY
85 TY
80 TY
75 TY
75 TY
70 TY
65 TY
May 11/06
11/09
11/12
11/15
11/18
11/21
12/00
12/06
12/12
12/18
13/00
13/06
13/12
13/18
14/00
14/06
14/12
14/18
15/00
15/06
15/12
15/18
16/00
16/06
16/12
16/18
17/00
25.3
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.4
27.7
28.3
28.4
28.3
28.1
27.9
27.7
27.4
27.2
27.5
28.1
29.0
30.1
30.6
31.2
31.7
32.3
32.7
33.0
33.2
-
141.0
141.3
142.0
142.6
143.5
144.5
145.9
147.9
149.5
150.8
151.8
153.4
154.7
155.4
156.0
157.5
158.4
159.1
159.7
160.5
161.3
162.5
163.7
165.2
167.3
169.7
-
970
970
975
975
980
980
985
994
996
996
996
996
1000
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1004
1008
-
50
65
65
60
55
55
55
50
35
-
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Dissip
50
TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS
40
40
0 00 1
30
30
20
20
TY DAMREY
11
10 0
1 20
1 60
130
0906 May
15 0
140
0
0 00 1
1
TS LONGWANG (0002)
Longwang formed as a tropical depression in the South China Sea near the western
coast of Luzon at 06UTC 17 May. It moved northeastward and became a tropical storm south
of Japan at 00UTC 19 May. On the northeastward track, Longwang kept TS intensity until
06UTC 20 May, when it transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone south of Japan. The
cyclone continued to move northeastward for further several days and crossed the
International Date Line.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TS LONGWANG (0002)
17 May - 24 May
May 17/06
17/12
17/18
1/800
18/06
18/12
18/18
19/00
19/06
19/12
19/15
19/18
19/21
20/00
20/06
20/12
16.1
16.0
15.9
16.2
18.0
19.2
20.4
21.1
22.3
23.3
24.1
24.7
25.4
26.4
28.2
30.3
118.8
119.6
120.0
121.1
122.5
123.6
124.1
125.5
126.8
128.6
129.7
130.8
132.8
135.0
139.0
142.0
1002
1002
1002
1002
1000
1000
1000
998
994
994
992
990
992
994
996
1000
17 May - 24 May
35
40
40
40
45
40
40
-
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
L
L
May 20/18
21/00
21/06
21/12
21/18
22/00
22/06
22/12
22/18
23/00
23/06
23/12
23/18
24/00
24/06
31.3
33.5
34.7
35.8
37.1
38.8
39.8
40.6
41.0
41.9
42.1
42.2
42.3
42.3
43.0
144.8
146.8
149.8
153.6
156.2
160.3
163.4
167.0
170.6
172.1
174.1
176.7
178.4
179.9
182.5
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
996
994
992
992
992
992
990
992
992
50
-
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Out
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
TS LONGWANG
0 00 2
11
10 0
1 20
1 60
130
1906 May
15 0
140
0
2
TY KIROGI (0003)
After one-month rest of tropical cyclone activity in June, a tropical depression formed
east of the Philippines at 06UTC 2 July. Moving northward, it attained TS intensity at 06UTC
3 July and developed rapidly into a typhoon southwest of Okinotorishima at 18UTC of the day.
Kirogi then changed its movement to the north-northeast and reached its peak with
maximum sustained winds of 85 knots west of the island at 00UTC 5 July. On the northnortheastward track, it passed between small islands, south of Japan on the midnight of 8
July and approached the eastern coast of Japan. During the passage, a wind gust of 49.3 m/s
was observed at Hachijo-jima (47678). Weakening to STS intensity, it moved along the eastern
coast of Japan and turned to the east around 18UTC 9 July. Shortly after the turn it
transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY KIROGI (0003)
02 Jul - 10 Jul
Jul 02/06
02/12
02/18
03/00
03/06
03/12
03/18
04/00
04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/18
06/00
06/06
06/12
06/18
07/00
07/06
12.8
13.3
14.2
15.5
16.2
16.7
17.1
17.7
18.3
19.2
19.9
20.8
21.7
22.5
23.4
24.2
24.9
25.8
26.9
28.2
29.9
133.2
133.0
132.5
132.1
131.8
131.7
131.7
131.7
131.6
131.5
131.4
131.9
132.4
133.0
133.6
134.2
134.6
135.3
136.0
136.8
137.7
02 Jul - 10 Jul
1002
1000
996
994
990
985
970
960
950
945
945
940
940
940
945
950
955
955
955
955
955
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
40 TS
50 STS
65 TY
70 TY
80 TY
80 TY
80 TY
85 TY
85 TY
85 TY
80 TY
80 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
Jul 07/09
07/12
07/15
07/18
07/21
08/00
08/03
08/06
08/09
08/12
08/15
08/18
08/21
09/00
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/00
10/06
10/12
30.8
31.8
33.0
34.2
35.4
36.5
38.0
39.2
40.4
41.2
41.8
41.9
42.1
42.3
42.9
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.5
-
138.2
138.9
139.4
139.9
140.9
141.3
142.0
142.7
143.4
143.9
144.3
144.7
145.7
146.9
149.5
153.4
157.1
161.5
165.2
-
955
955
955
955
960
970
975
975
980
985
985
985
986
988
992
994
996
996
998
-
75
75
75
75
70
60
55
55
50
50
50
50
-
50
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Dissip
50
0 00 3
40
40
30
30
20
20
TY KIROGI
11
10 0
1 20
1 60
130
0 00 3
15 0
140
0503 July
0
3
TY KAI-TAK (0004)
Kai-tak was the first typhoon developed in the South China Sea in this season. It
formed as a tropical depression west of Luzon at 12UTC 3 July and initially took a
northward track. It then slowed down northwest of Luzon and quickly developed to a
tropical storm at 18UTC 5 July, to a typhoon at 12UTC 6 July. Kai-tak reached peak
intensity at 00UTC 7 July and maximum sustained winds of 75 knots were estimated.
Right after reaching its peak, it began to move northeastward and made landfall on the
eastern part of Taiwan around 00UTC 9 July. During the passage it turned to the north
with weakening and crossed the eastern tips of central China on the morning of 10 June.
Later Kai-tak transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone in the northern part of the
Yellow Sea at 18UTC 10 July.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY KAI-TAK (0004)
03 Jul - 12 Jul
Jul 03/12
03/18
04/00
04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/18
06/00
06/06
06/12
06/18
07/00
07/06
07/12
07/18
08/00
15.9
16.4
17.0
17.8
18.6
18.9
19.0
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.6
19.6
19.6
19.7
19.8
19.9
20.0
119.1
119.5
119.8
120.1
120.3
120.3
120.2
120.1
120.0
120.0
119.8
119.6
119.0
118.6
118.6
118.7
118.8
119.0
119.2
03 Jul - 12 Jul
1000
996
996
994
996
994
994
994
994
992
985
975
970
965
960
960
960
960
965
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
40 TS
50 STS
60 STS
65 TY
70 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
70 TY
Jul 08/06
08/12
08/18
09/00
09/03
09/06
09/09
09/12
09/18
10/00
10/06
10/12
10/18
11/00
11/06
11/12
11/18
12/00
12/06
20.3
20.8
21.5
22.7
23.6
24.4
25.4
26.3
28.0
30.3
32.2
34.3
36.9
38.4
40.0
41.2
42.0
42.8
-
119.6
120.2
120.8
121.2
121.3
121.4
121.3
121.2
121.5
121.6
122.1
122.6
122.9
123.2
123.9
125.4
127.9
130.9
-
970
980
980
985
985
985
990
990
990
992
994
994
994
994
996
996
996
996
-
50
65
55
55
50
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
-
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
L
L
L
L
L
L
Dissip
50
40
40
0 00 4
30
30
20
20
TY KAI-TAK
11
10 0
0 00 4
120
160
130
0703 Jul
15 0
140
0
4
TS TEMBIN (0005)
A tropical depression formed at 00UTC 17 July north of the Mariana Islands. Moving
northwestward initially, then northward the depression became a tropical storm around
Ogasawara-shoto at 00UTC 19 July. Keeping TS intensity, Tembin continued to move
northward until it was downgraded into a tropical depression about 200 km southeast of
Japan at 18UTC 21 July.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TS TEMBIM (0005)
17 Jul - 23 Jul
Jul 17/00
17/06
17/12
17/18
18/00
18/06
18/12
18/18
19/00
19/03
19/06
19/09
19/12
19/18
19.8
20.8
21.6
22.2
22.7
23.5
24.2
25.1
26.7
27.3
27.7
28.1
28.4
29.4
145.0
144.5
144.0
143.4
142.9
142.2
141.9
141.7
142.2
142.3
142.4
142.3
142.3
142.1
17 Jul - 23 Jul
1006
1004
1004
1004
1004
1002
1000
1000
998
998
996
996
996
992
35
35
35
35
35
40
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
Jul 20/06
20/12
20/18
21/00
21/06
21/12
21/18
22/00
22/06
22/12
22/18
23/00
23/06
23/12
30.7
31.4
31.9
32.4
33.1
34.1
34.9
35.9
37.2
38.7
40.2
42.0
43.0
-
141.7
141.7
141.9
142.0
142.1
142.3
142.5
143.0
144.2
146.0
147.6
148.4
151.9
-
992
992
992
994
994
994
994
996
996
996
998
1000
1000
-
50
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
35 TS
35 TS
35 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- Dissip
50
0 00 5
40
40
30
30
TS TEMBIM
20
20
11
10 0
0 00 5
120
160
130
2003 Jul
15 0
140
0
5
STS BOLAVEN (0006)
Bolaven formed as a tropical depression east of Luzon at 00UTC 24 July and moved
north-northeastward. Turning to the east-northeast, it attained TS intensity around
Okinawa at 18UTC 25 July. After passing south of Okinawa on the morning of 26 June,
the storm made an anti-clockwise turn keeping TS intensity over waters east of Okinawa
from 26 to 28 July. Decreasing its translation velocity, it developed into a severe tropical
storm at 06UTC 29 July. As Bolaven moved northward further southwest of Japan, it
weakened to a tropical depression at the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula at 00UTC
31 July, and transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone shortly.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
STS BOLAVEN (0006)
24 Jul - 02 Aug
Jul 24/00
24/06
24/12
24/18
25/00
2/506
25/12
25/18
26/00
26/03
26/06
26/09
26/12
26/15
26/18
26/21
27/00
27/03
27/06
27/09
27/12
27/15
27/18
27/21
28/00
28/03
28/06
28/09
28/12
17.9
18.8
20.3
21.8
23.0
24.0
24.7
25.0
25.4
25.7
25.8
26.0
26.2
26.6
26.8
26.9
27.0
27.2
27.3
27.4
27.4
27.4
27.5
27.6
27.8
28.0
28.1
28.2
28.2
123.9
124.2
124.4
124.8
125.2
125.8
126.4
126.9
128.1
128.6
129.0
129.4
129.7
129.9
129.9
129.9
129.9
129.9
129.8
129.7
129.6
129.5
129.4
129.3
129.3
129.2
129.1
129.1
129.0
24 Jul - 02 Aug
1000
1000
1000
998
998
996
994
992
990
990
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
35
40
40
40
40
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
Jul 28/15
28/18
28/21
29/00
29/03
29/06
29/09
29/12
29/15
29/18
29/21
30/00
30/03
30/06
30/09
30/12
30/15
30/18
30/21
31/00
31/06
31/12
31/18
Aug 01/00
01/06
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
28.2
28.3
28.4
28.6
28.8
29.1
29.5
29.9
30.3
30.7
31.1
31.6
32.1
32.6
33.0
33.4
33.8
34.4
35.2
35.9
37.7
40.8
42.2
43.5
44.7
45.9
47.3
47.9
128.9
128.8
128.7
128.7
128.7
128.7
128.7
128.6
128.6
128.5
128.5
128.5
128.5
128.5
128.6
128.6
128.7
128.9
129.2
129.7
131.0
132.7
133.9
135.1
137.3
139.7
141.8
144.2
-
985
985
985
985
985
980
980
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
990
988
990
992
994
996
998
1000
1004
1006
1006
1010
-
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
50 STS
50 STS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
35 TS
- TD
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
- Dissip
50
50
0 00 6
40
40
30
30
20
20
STS BOLAVEN
11
10 0
0 00 6
120
160
130
2906 Jul
15 0
140
0
6
TS CHANCHU (0007)
Chanchu was a short-lived system, which formed as a tropical depression east of the
Marshall Islands at 18UTC 27 July. The depression moved to the north-northwest and
became a tropical storm east of the Islands at 18UTC 28 July. After moving northward
with TS intensity for one day, it weakened to a tropical depression east of Wake Island at
18UTC 29 July.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Date/Time
Grade
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TS CHANCHU (0007)
27 Jul - 30 Jul
Jul 27/18
28/00
28/06
28/12
28/18
29/00
8.8
9.7
10.5
11.2
12.1
13.0
178.1
177.5
177.0
176.8
176.5
176.4
27 Jul - 30 Jul
1004
1004
1004
1004
998
996
35
35
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
Jul 29/06
29/12
29/18
30/00
30/06
30/12
13.6
14.1
14.7
15.5
16.6
-
176.3
176.6
177.1
177.8
178.6
-
T R O P I 4C0A L C Y C L O N E T R A C K S
998
1000
1002
1004
1008
-
35 TS
35 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- Dissip
40
30
30
0 00 7
20
18
TS CHANCHU
0
0 00 7
0
17
10
120
160
130
15 0
140
0
TY JELAWAT (0008)
A tropical depression formed south of Marcus Island at 18UTC 31 July. Moving
westward, the depression developed rapidly and became a tropical storm at 12UTC 1
August and a typhoon at 00UTC of the following day. On the west-northwestward track
Jelawat reached peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 85 knots north of the
Mariana Islands at 00UTC 3 August. It kept TY intensity for several days moving
westward and passed near Minamidaito-jima (47945) around 06UTC 6 August. Jerawat
then turned to the northwest and passed near Okinawa on the early morning of 8 August.
A wind gust of 61.5 m/s was observed at Minamidaito-jima during the passage. As
JELAWAT entered the East China Sea, it weakened gradually and was downgraded to a
severe tropical storm near the central coast of China at 06UTC 10 August. Shortly from
the downgrade it made landfall on the coast and further weakened to a tropical
depression at 18UTC of the day.
7
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY JELAWAT (0008)
31 Jul - 12 Aug
Jul 31/18
Aug 01/00
01/06
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
02/12
02/18
03/00
03/06
03/12
03/15
03/18
03/21
04/00
04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/15
05/18
05/21
06/00
06/03
06/06
06/09
06/12
06/15
06/18
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.1
22.3
22.5
23.1
23.6
24.4
24.9
25.1
25.2
25.5
25.6
26.1
26.1
26.1
26.2
26.2
26.1
26.1
26.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
25.9
25.9
154.4
153.0
152.0
151.2
150.2
149.4
148.6
147.7
146.6
145.5
144.4
143.0
142.2
141.6
141.0
140.4
139.1
137.7
136.4
135.5
134.5
133.5
133.1
132.7
132.3
132.0
131.6
131.1
130.8
130.5
130.2
129.9
31 Jul - 12 Aug
1008
1004
1000
996
985
970
960
955
945
940
940
940
940
945
945
950
950
950
950
950
950
955
955
955
955
960
960
960
960
960
960
960
35
45
65
75
75
80
85
85
85
85
85
85
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
Aug 06/21
07/00
07/03
07/06
07/09
07/12
07/15
07/18
07/21
08/00
08/03
08/06
08/09
08/12
08/18
09/00
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/00
10/06
10/12
10/18
11/00
11/06
11/12
11/18
12/00
12/06
12/12
12/18
25.9
26.0
26.0
26.2
26.3
26.5
26.6
26.8
27.0
27.3
27.6
27.8
28.0
28.0
28.2
28.5
28.8
28.8
28.8
29.1
29.1
29.3
29.8
30.7
30.7
30.4
30.2
30.7
30.8
30.6
129.7
129.6
129.4
129.2
129.0
128.8
128.5
128.4
128.2
128.1
127.9
127.7
127.6
127.4
127.0
126.5
125.8
125.0
124.3
123.7
122.8
121.8
121.0
120.5
119.4
118.1
117.3
116.6
115.9
115.3
-
960
960
960
960
960
965
965
965
965
965
965
965
965
965
965
965
965
970
970
970
980
985
994
998
998
1000
1000
1002
1002
1002
-
80 TY
80 TY
80 TY
80 TY
80 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
75 TY
70 TY
70 TY
70 TY
70 TY
70 TY
65 TY
50 STS
40 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- Dissip
50
50
40
40
30
30
0 00 8
20
20
0 00 8
TY JELAWAT
11
10 0
0
17
10
120
0303 Aug
160
130
15 0
140
8
TY EWINIAR (0009)
A tropical depression formed west of Guam Island at 00UTC 9 August. It moved
westward initially, then northward and became a tropical storm over the same waters at
18UTC of the day. Accelerating to the north, the storm attained STS intensity
southwest of Ogasawara-shoto at 06UTC 11 August. Ewiniar slowed down south of Japan
and began moving to the east-northeast around 12UTC 12 August. The storm continued
to move east-northeastward over the next three days keeping STS intensity until 18UTC
15 August when it intensified into a typhoon east of Japan. Maximum sustained winds of
65 knots were estimated at the time. As it turned to the north, it lost tropical
characteristics gradually and became an extra-tropical cyclone at 12UTC 18 August.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY EWINIAR (0009)
09 Aug - 21 Aug
09 Aug - 21 Aug
Aug 09/00
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/00
10/06
10/12
10/18
11/00
11/06
11/12
11/18
12/00
12/06
12/09
12/12
12/15
12/18
12/21
13/00
13/03
13/06
13/09
13/12
13/15
13/18
14/00
14/06
14.3
14.1
14.2
14.9
15.6
17.0
18.3
19.9
23.2
25.5
27.6
29.1
29.3
29.3
29.8
30.4
30.6
30.6
30.7
30.8
31.1
31.5
31.8
31.9
32.2
32.5
33.1
33.8
142.5
141.6
140.1
139.5
139.2
139.1
139.0
138.9
138.9
138.0
137.4
136.3
135.6
135.9
136.2
136.2
136.5
136.7
137.3
138.2
138.7
139.3
140.2
141.0
141.8
142.5
144.0
145.6
1002
998
996
994
992
992
992
992
990
985
980
980
980
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
35
40
40
40
40
45
50
55
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
Aug 14/18
15/00
15/06
15/12
15/18
16/00
16/06
16/12
16/18
17/00
17/06
17/12
17/18
18/00
18/06
18/12
18/18
19/00
19/06
19/12
19/18
20/00
20/06
20/12
20/18
21/00
21/06
21/12
34.7
34.8
35.0
35.4
36.1
36.9
37.3
38.0
38.3
38.4
38.6
38.5
38.5
39.0
39.2
39.4
39.5
39.4
39.2
39.3
39.6
40.2
40.6
40.8
40.8
40.2
40.1
147.7
148.3
149.4
150.2
150.8
150.7
150.7
150.9
150.7
150.3
149.9
149.7
150.0
149.6
149.7
149.5
149.1
148.5
149.1
150.0
150.7
151.1
151.2
151.2
150.7
149.8
149.9
-
980
980
975
975
975
975
975
980
980
985
985
990
992
994
994
994
994
996
996
998
1000
1000
1002
1004
1004
1008
1008
-
50
55
55
60
60
65
65
65
60
55
50
50
45
45
45
45
-
STS
STS
STS
STS
TY
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
TS
TS
TS
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Dissip
50
40
40
0 00 9
30
30
TY EWINIAR
20
20
11
10 0
0
17
10
0 00 9
120
1603 Aug
160
130
15 0
140
9
TY BILIS (0010)
Bilis was the most intense tropical cyclone of this season, which was generated as a
tropical depression northwest of Yap Island at 12UTC 18 August. It took a northwestward
track in its almost whole life until making landfall on southern China. Developing
gradually on the northwestward track east of the Philippines, Bilis attained TS intensity
at 06UTC 19 August, TY intensity at 12UTC 20 August and reached its peak with
maximum sustained winds of 110 knots northeast of Luzon at 18UTC 21 August. With TY
intensity Bilis made landfall on Taiwan around midnight of 23 August. After the landfall
it weakened rapidly and landed on the southeast coast of China before the noon of the day.
As it moved to inland of China, it further weakened to a tropical storm at 06UTC 23
August and to a tropical depression shortly.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY BILIS (0010)
18 Aug - 27 Aug
Aug 18/12
18/18
19/00
19/06
19/12
19/18
20/00
20/06
20/12
20/18
21/00
21/06
21/12
21/18
22/00
22/06
22/12
22/15
22/18
11.5
12.5
13.4
14.6
15.4
16.1
16.4
16.7
17.5
18.2
18.8
19.4
19.7
20.3
20.8
21.5
22.5
23.1
23.6
137.0
136.6
136.0
135.6
134.8
133.5
132.5
131.8
130.8
129.6
128.3
127.1
126.1
125.1
124.1
123.0
122.0
121.3
120.0
18 Aug - 27 Aug
1004
1002
1000
996
992
985
980
975
960
945
935
930
920
920
920
920
920
930
950
- TD
- TD
- TD
35 TS
45 TS
50 STS
50 STS
55 STS
70 TY
80 TY
90 TY
90 TY
100 TY
110 TY
110 TY
110 TY
110 TY
100 TY
90 TY
Aug 23/00
23/06
23/12
23/18
24/00
24/06
24/12
24/18
25/00
25/06
25/12
25/18
26/00
26/06
26/12
26/18
27/00
27/06
27/12
24.2
25.2
25.2
25.4
26.0
27.2
28.4
29.1
30.2
31.6
32.0
33.3
33.8
34.4
35.4
36.1
37.2
38.0
-
118.9
117.9
116.5
116.5
116.6
116.5
116.5
116.7
117.0
118.3
119.8
120.9
121.9
122.9
123.9
124.8
125.4
126.2
-
970
985
994
996
998
998
998
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1002
1004
1004
1004
1006
-
50
65 TY
45 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
- Dissip
50
40
40
0 01 0
30
30
20
20
TY BILIS
11
10 0
0
17
10
120
TY BILIS
160
130
15 0
0 01 0
10
140
TS KAEMI (0011)
Kaemi was a very short-lived system, formed as a tropical depression in the South
China Sea at 12UTC 19 August. Moving westward initially, then northwestward the
depression reached TS intensity about 200 km east of Viet Nam at 12UTC 21 August. On
the northwestward track, Kaemi made landfall on the central coast of Viet Nam around
06UTC 22 August. After the landfall, it weakened to a tropical depression at 12UTC 22
August.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TS KAEMI (0011)
19 Aug - 23 Aug
Aug 19/12
19/18
20/00
20/06
20/12
20/18
21/00
21/06
21/12
21/18
13.4
13.4
13.5
13.1
13.5
13.6
14.3
14.9
15.0
15.2
113.7
114.5
114.0
113.0
112.8
112.7
112.6
111.7
111.0
110.1
1000
998
996
996
996
996
994
992
985
985
19 Aug - 23 Aug
40
40
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
Aug 22/00
22/06
22/12
22/18
23/00
23/06
23/12
23/18
24/00
15.5
16.1
15.8
16.0
16.3
16.5
16.3
16.4
-
109.2
108.4
107.1
106.4
105.8
105.4
104.9
104.1
-
985
985
992
994
996
998
998
1000
-
40 TS
35 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- Dissip
50
50
40
40
30
30
0 01 1
20
20
TS KAEMI
0 01 1
11
10 0
120
160
130
2203 Aug
15 0
140
0
11
TY PRAPIROON (0012)
A tropical depression, which formed northwest of Yap Island at 18UTC 24 August,
moved westward initially and turned to the north. It became a tropical storm west of
Okinotorishima at 18UTC 26 August turning to the northwest. After Prapiroon attained
STS intensity at 18UTC 27 August on the northwestward track, it drifted to the west
until 12UTC 28 August when it began to move northward. On the accelerating northward
track, the storm passed around Okinawa on the evening of 29 August. A wind gust of 36.6
m/s was observed at Miyako-jima (47927). In the East China Sea the cyclone developed to
a typhoon at 06UTC 30 August, reached peak intensity at 12UTC of the day and
maximum sustained winds of 70 knots were estimated. After crossing the Yellow Sea,
Prapiroon hit the northern part of the Korean Peninsula with STS intensity on the night
of 31 August. It then weakened gradually and transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone
at 12UTC 1 September.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Date/Time
Grade
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY PRAPIROON (0012)
24 Aug - 04 Sep
Aug 24/18
25/00
25/06
25/12
25/18
26/00
26/06
26/12
26/18
27/00
27/06
27/12
27/18
28/00
28/03
28/06
28/09
28/12
28/15
28/18
28/21
29/00
29/03
29/06
2/909
29/12
12.4
12.6
13.0
13.2
13.5
15.4
16.7
19.0
20.4
21.8
22.5
22.5
22.6
23.3
23.3
22.8
22.8
23.0
23.2
23.6
23.7
23.8
24.0
24.3
24.7
25.0
136.0
134.1
132.3
131.4
131.7
131.9
131.7
131.7
131.5
130.3
128.9
128.9
128.9
127.8
126.9
126.2
126.1
126.0
125.8
125.5
125.5
125.4
125.2
125.0
124.7
124.6
24 Aug - 04 Sep
1002
1002
1002
1002
1000
998
996
996
992
992
990
990
985
985
985
985
980
980
980
980
975
975
975
975
975
975
35
40
40
40
50
50
50
50
55
55
55
55
60
60
60
55
55
55
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
Aug 29/15
29/18
30/00
30/06
30/12
30/18
31/00
31/06
31/12
31/18
Sep 01/00
01/06
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
02/12
02/18
03/00
03/06
03/12
03/18
04/00
04/06
04/12
25.5
25.9
26.8
28.7
29.8
31.4
33.3
35.4
37.3
39.2
41.5
42.2
42.2
42.1
42.1
42.1
41.5
40.3
39.6
39.7
41.2
41.9
42.7
42.8
124.3
123.9
123.9
123.4
123.2
123.3
123.8
124.1
125.1
126.7
129.2
131.1
133.2
135.0
137.4
139.2
140.2
141.4
144.5
146.8
149.8
152.6
153.7
153.9
-
975
975
970
970
965
965
965
965
975
980
985
990
990
992
992
990
992
994
996
996
996
996
1000
1000
-
50
55
55
60
65
70
70
70
70
60
55
50
45
-
STS
STS
STS
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
TS
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Dissip
50
0 01 2
40
40
30
30
TY PRAPIROON
20
20
11
10 0
0
17
10
1 20
1 60
0 01 2
3103 Aug
130
15 0
140
12
TS MARIA (0013)
A tropical depression formed southeast of Hong Kong at 06UTC 27 August. It took a
southward track and became a tropical storm at 12UTC of the following day. Keeping TS
intensity, Maria continued to move southward in the northern South China Sea for about
two days. It then stopped southward movement about 500 km west of Luzon and
remained almost stationary until 00UTC 30 August, when it began to make a clockwise
turn. After the turn Maria moved northward and made landfall on the southern coast of
China on the early morning of 1 September. Shortly after the landfall it weakened to a
tropical depression.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TS MARIA (0013)
27 Aug - 02 Sep
Aug 27/06
27/12
27/18
28/00
28/06
28/12
28/18
29/00
29/06
29/12
29/18
30/00
30/06
30/12
21.6
21.3
21.2
21.2
20.8
20.2
19.6
19.1
18.6
18.2
18.1
18.0
18.2
19.0
115.0
115.2
115.5
115.9
115.7
115.2
115.0
115.3
115.6
115.7
115.8
115.6
115.1
115.9
27 Aug - 02 Sep
1000
1000
1000
1000
998
996
992
992
992
990
990
990
990
990
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
30/18
31/00
31/06
31/12
31/18
Sep 01/00
01/06
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
02/12
02/18
03/00
19.4
20.2
21.0
21.8
22.4
23.4
24.6
25.4
26.7
27.5
28.7
29.5
29.8
-
116.0
116.1
115.6
115.4
115.3
114.5
114.4
114.6
114.2
113.7
113.4
112.5
111.7
-
990
985
985
985
985
990
990
996
998
1000
1002
1002
1004
-
50
35 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
35 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- Dissip
50
40
40
0 01 3
30
30
0 01 3
20
TS MARIA
20
11
10 0
0
17
10
120
160
130
3103 Aug
15 0
140
13
TY SAOMAI (0014)
SAOMAI was a long-lived tropical cyclone, which maintained TS intensity or higher
almost two weeks. A tropical depression formed far east of the Mariana Islands at 18UTC
31 August and moved northward initially, then turned to the west. On the westward
track, it developed into a tropical storm at 12UTC 2 September and a typhoon east of
Saipan Island at 06UTC 4 September. It turned to the south and weakened into STS
grade at 06UTC 5 September. At 06UTC 6 September it changed the track to the west
and then to the northwest. On its steady northwestward track through the following
several days, it kept STS intensity until 00UTC 9 September, when it re-developed to
attain TY intensity. Saomai further developed and reached peak intensity with maximum
sustained winds of 95 knots southeast of Minamidaito-jima at 12UTC 10 September. It
then passed the central portion of Okinawa Island just after 10UTC 12 September. A
wind gust of 42.0 m/s was observed during the passage. In the East China Sea it changed
the track northeastward, and then north-northeastward increasing its translation
velocity. After weakening into STS intensity, Saomai made landfall on the southern coast
of the Korean Peninsula around 20UTC 15 September. Moving north-northeastward,
SAOMAI transformed into an extratropical cyclone at 06UTC 16 September northeast off
the Korean Peninsula.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY SAOMAI (0014)
31 Aug - 19 Sep
Aug 31/18
Sep 01/00
01/06
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
02/12
02/18
03/00
03/06
03/12
03/18
04/00
04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/18
06/00
06/06
06/12
06/18
07/00
07/06
07/12
07/18
08/00
08/06
08/12
08/18
13.5
14.2
14.8
15.5
15.9
16.1
16.3
16.1
16.0
15.9
15.9
15.9
15.9
16.0
16.1
16.2
16.1
16.0
15.9
15.0
14.2
13.6
13.6
13.9
14.2
15.8
16.4
16.9
17.5
18.3
19.1
19.7
20.4
156.9
157.0
157.0
157.1
157.2
157.4
157.1
156.3
155.5
154.9
154.2
153.4
152.6
151.7
150.7
149.9
149.0
148.0
148.0
148.0
148.0
148.0
147.4
147.1
146.9
145.7
144.7
143.5
142.0
140.9
140.4
139.7
138.4
1008
1008
1006
1008
1004
1004
1004
1000
996
992
990
985
980
980
975
975
975
975
980
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
985
980
980
980
975
31 Aug - 19 Sep
35
40
40
45
50
55
60
65
65
65
65
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
55
55
55
60
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
STS
STS
STS
TY
TY
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
Sep 11/06
11/09
11/12
11/15
11/18
11/21
12/00
12/03
12/06
12/09
12/10
12/12
12/15
12/18
12/21
13/00
13/03
13/06
13/09
13/12
13/18
14/00
14/06
14/12
14/18
15/00
15/03
15/06
15/09
15/12
15/15
15/18
15/21
14
25.4
25.5
25.5
25.7
25.8
25.9
26.1
26.2
26.3
26.5
26.5
26.7
26.8
27.0
27.2
27.4
27.6
27.8
27.9
27.9
27.9
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.6
29.1
29.6
30.1
30.8
31.6
32.8
34.0
35.2
130.8
130.5
130.4
129.8
129.5
129.2
128.9
128.5
128.2
128.1
128.0
127.8
127.4
127.0
126.7
126.5
126.2
125.9
125.5
125.2
124.6
124.4
124.2
124.2
124.4
125.3
125.8
126.3
127.0
127.6
127.9
128.1
128.4
930
930
935
935
940
940
940
945
945
945
945
945
950
950
950
950
955
960
960
955
955
955
955
960
960
965
965
965
965
970
970
970
970
90
90
90
90
85
85
85
80
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
65
65
65
65
60
60
60
55
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
09/00
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/00
10/03
10/06
10/09
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/21
11/00
11/03
21.1
21.7
22.5
23.3
23.9
24.2
24.3
24.2
24.3
24.4
24.4
24.6
24.9
25.2
137.4
136.8
136.1
135.2
134.1
133.5
133.0
132.5
132.4
132.2
132.0
131.8
131.5
131.1
965
955
945
935
930
930
930
930
925
925
925
925
925
930
70
75
80
90
90
90
90
90
95
95
95
95
95
90
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
16/00
16/06
16/12
16/18
17/00
17/06
17/12
17/18
18/00
18/06
18/12
18/18
19/00
19/06
36.7
39.5
40.1
42.0
42.7
44.7
46.5
47.0
47.5
47.5
47.6
47.5
47.4
-
129.0
129.5
130.5
131.4
131.6
133.0
135.1
136.2
137.2
138.7
140.7
141.6
142.2
-
980
982
986
988
990
990
992
994
996
998
1004
1008
1012
-
50
50 STS
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
- Dissip
50
0 01 4
40
40
30
30
TY SAOMAI
20
20
11
10 0
0
17
10
120
1100 Sep
0 01 4
130
15 0
140
15
160
TS BOPHA (0015)
A tropical depression, which formed east of Luzon at 06UTC 4 September, moved
east initially, then made a gradual anti-clockwise turn to the west-northwest on 6
September. It intensified into a tropical storm southeast of Minamidaito-jima at 18UTC 6
September. After passing just south of Okinawa Island on 08 September, Bopha made
another anti-clockwise turn to the south on 9 September. Keeping TS intensity, it passed
east off Taiwan from the night of 9 to the morning of 10 September and made landfall on
Luzon around 23UTC 10 September. The storm weakened into a tropical depression on
the northern coast of Luzon at 00UTC 11 September.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TS BOPHA (0015)
4 Sep - 10 Sep
Sep 04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/18
06/00
06/06
06/12
06/18
07/00
07/06
07/12
07/15
07/18
07/21
08/00
08/03
08/06
18.0
18.1
18.1
18.3
18.9
19.4
20.5
21.2
22.1
22.9
23.4
23.8
24.3
24.5
24.6
24.7
24.8
25.0
25.3
25.6
125.8
127.0
128.1
129.1
130.8
133.0
135.0
135.8
136.4
136.4
136.2
135.4
133.4
132.0
131.6
131.2
130.6
129.9
129.4
128.6
4 Sep - 10 Sep
1000
1000
1000
1000
998
998
998
998
996
996
994
994
992
990
990
990
990
990
990
990
35
40
40
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
Sep 08/09
08/12
08/15
08/18
08/21
09/00
09/03
09/06
09/09
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/00
10/06
10/12
10/18
11/00
11/06
11/12
11/18
25.8
25.9
25.8
25.7
25.5
25.3
25.0
24.8
24.6
24.3
23.9
23.5
22.4
21.4
20.3
19.2
18.6
18.0
17.3
-
127.7
127.0
126.5
125.9
125.4
125.1
124.7
124.4
124.1
123.8
123.5
123.2
122.7
122.2
121.9
121.9
122.1
122.2
122.1
-
990
994
994
994
994
994
994
992
990
988
992
988
990
990
990
990
994
994
998
-
50
45 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
40 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- Dissip
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
0 01 5
11
10 0
TS BOPHA
120
1003 Sep
160
130
15 0
140
16
0
17
10
0 01 5
TY WUKONG (0016)
Wukong formed as a tropical depression west of Luzon at 06UTC 4 September. It
remained almost stationary until 12UTC 5 September and then made an anti-clockwise
turn to the west in the South China Sea. During the turn the depression developed into a
tropical storm at 00UTC 6 September. It further intensified to attain TY intensity at
18UTC 7 September and reached its peak with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots
at 06UTC 8 September. Weakening gradually, Wukong skirted around the southern
coasts of Hainan Island on 9 September and made landfall on the northern part of
Vietnam around 04UTC 10 September. After the landfall it weakened into a tropical
depression in the northeastern part of Thailand at 12UTC of the day.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY WUKONG (0016)
4 Sep - 11 Sep
Sep 04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/18
06/00
06/06
06/12
06/18
07/00
07/06
07/12
16.6
16.7
16.6
16.4
16.5
16.9
17.3
17.9
18.4
18.7
18.9
19.0
19.0
19.0
117.2
116.6
116.4
116.6
116.8
117.2
117.5
117.6
117.4
117.0
116.3
115.8
115.5
115.2
4 Sep - 11 Sep
1000
1000
1000
1000
998
996
994
992
990
985
985
980
980
975
35
40
50
50
55
55
60
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
Sep 07/18
08/00
08/06
08/12
08/18
09/00
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/00
10/06
10/12
10/18
11/00
19.0
18.9
18.8
18.8
18.6
18.4
18.1
18.3
18.5
18.3
17.9
17.9
17.9
-
114.7
114.2
113.4
112.5
111.6
110.5
109.7
108.8
107.8
106.8
105.6
104.0
102.5
-
970
960
955
955
960
960
970
975
980
985
990
996
1000
-
65
70
75
75
70
70
60
55
50
50
45
-
50
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
TD
TD
Dissip
50
40
40
30
30
0 01 6
TY WUKONG
20
10
20
0
0 01 6
11
10 0
1 20
0806 Sep
1 60
130
15 0
140
0
17
STS SONAMU (0017)
A tropical depression, which formed southwest of Iwo-jima at 06UTC 14 September,
moved northward and developed into a tropical storm south of the island at 03UTC 15
September. It turned to the north and passed just west of Ogasawara-shoto around
12UTC 16 September. A half day later Sonamu attained STS intensity southeast of Japan
and then made a slight turn to the north-northeast on 17 September. The storm
transformed into an extratropical cyclone near the Chishima Islands at 06UTC 18
September
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
STS SONAMU (0017)
14 Sep - 20 Sep
Sep 14/06
14/12
14/18
15/00
15/03
15/06
15/12
15/15
15/18
15/21
16/00
16/03
16/06
16/09
16/12
16/15
16/18
16/21
21.9
22.1
22.7
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.9
24.0
24.2
24.4
24.9
25.5
26.0
26.6
27.3
28.3
29.2
30.1
139.5
140.0
140.7
141.0
141.0
141.0
141.2
141.3
141.5
141.8
141.8
141.8
141.7
141.7
141.6
141.6
141.6
141.5
998
1000
1000
1000
996
994
992
992
990
990
990
990
990
990
990
990
990
990
14 Sep - 20 Sep
35
40
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
Sep 17/00
17/03
17/06
17/09
17/12
17/18
18/00
18/06
18/12
18/18
19/00
19/06
19/12
19/18
20/00
20/06
20/12
30.9
32.1
33.3
34.6
35.9
38.8
41.9
44.7
47.1
48.9
50.5
52.5
54.5
55.4
56.1
56.4
57.0
141.5
141.8
142.1
142.6
143.0
144.3
146.5
149.0
153.6
157.5
163.6
169.7
174.8
176.5
178.5
179.0
180.5
985
980
980
980
980
980
985
988
990
996
994
992
988
986
984
984
986
50
55
55
55
55
55
50
-
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Out
0 01 7
60
60
50
50
40
40
STS SONAMU
30
30
20
20
0 01 7
1703 Sep
11
10 0
18
0
17
10
TY SHANSHAN (0018)
A tropical depression formed northeast of the Marshall Islands at 06UTC 17
September. Moving northwest, it developed into a tropical storm at 12UTC 18 September
and one day later attained TY intensity over the same waters. Shanshan further
intensified passing northeast of Wake Island and reached its peak with maximum
sustained winds of 95 knots north of the island at 12UTC 21 September. Turning to
the northeast, Shanshan accelerated its translation velocity with gradual weakening on
22 and 23 September. The storm transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone northwest of
Midway Island at 18UTC 24 September.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY SHANSHAN (0018)
17 Sep - 25 Sep
Sep 17/06
17/12
17/18
18/00
18/06
18/12
18/18
19/00
19/06
19/12
19/18
20/00
20/06
20/12
20/18
21/00
21/06
21/12
14.2
14.5
14.8
15.1
15.5
16.0
16.2
16.6
17.3
18.0
19.3
19.9
20.3
20.9
21.2
21.6
22.3
22.9
173.6
173.1
172.6
172.1
171.8
171.0
170.0
169.7
169.7
170.3
169.8
168.5
168.1
167.2
166.6
166.2
166.0
165.6
1004
1004
1004
1004
1002
998
990
985
980
970
960
950
945
940
935
935
930
925
17 Sep - 25 Sep
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
35 TS
45 TS
50 STS
55 STS
65 TY
75 TY
80 TY
85 TY
85 TY
90 TY
90 TY
95 TY
95 TY
Sep 21/18
22/00
22/06
22/12
22/18
23/00
23/06
2/312
23/18
24/00
24/06
24/12
24/18
25/00
25/06
25/12
25/18
23.6
24.2
24.9
25.5
26.6
27.7
28.7
30.1
31.1
32.7
35.8
38.9
42.8
43.3
43.3
44.4
45.9
60
165.4
165.3
165.3
165.6
166.2
166.5
167.0
168.3
169.6
171.8
174.6
177.8
177.9
175.6
177.8
180.0
181.7
925
925
925
935
940
945
950
955
960
960
960
955
956
956
960
964
964
95
95
95
90
85
85
80
75
70
70
70
70
-
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
L
L
L
L
Out
60
0 01 8
50
50
40
40
30
30
TY SHANSHAN
20
20
0 01 8
0
17
10
2200 Sep
1 20
1 60
130
15 0
140
19
18
0
TY YAGI (0019)
Almost one month later after Shanshan dissipated in late September, YAGI formed
as a tropical depression north of the Mariana Islands at 00UTC 21 October. Moving
west-northwest, it developed into a tropical storm east-northeast of Okino-torishima at
00UTC 22 October. The storm kept moving west-northwestward with gradual
development and attained TY intensity south of Okinawa at 12UTC 24 October. After
YAGI reached its peak with maximum sustained winds of 70 knots, it changed the track
to the northwest, then turned to the north and made a full turn over the waters around
Okinawa from 26 to 28 October. YAGI weakened gradually during the turn and
downgraded into a tropical depression over the same waters at 00UTC 27 October.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY YAGI (0019)
21 Oct -28 Oct
Oct 21/00
21/06
21/12
21/18
22/00
22/06
22/12
22/18
23/00
23/06
23/12
23/18
24/00
24/06
24/09
24/12
24/15
24/18
24/21
25/00
25/03
20.1
20.4
20.5
20.6
21.0
21.1
21.6
21.9
22.2
22.3
22.8
22.8
23.0
23.4
23.5
23.7
23.9
24.1
24.4
24.7
24.9
145.9
143.8
141.7
140.2
138.9
137.6
135.7
134.0
132.5
131.2
130.2
129.2
128.2
127.2
126.7
126.3
125.9
125.5
125.2
124.9
124.6
21 Oct -28 Oct
1008
1006
1004
1002
1000
998
996
992
990
990
985
985
980
975
975
970
970
965
965
965
965
35
35
40
40
45
45
50
50
55
60
60
65
65
70
70
70
70
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
Oct 25/06
25/09
25/12
25/15
25/18
25/21
26/00
26/03
26/06
26/09
26/12
26/15
26/18
26/21
27/00
27/06
27/12
27/18
28/00
28/06
28/12
25.2
25.4
25.6
25.8
25.9
26.1
26.2
26.5
26.6
26.5
26.5
26.4
26.2
26.0
25.8
25.4
25.2
25.0
24.9
25.2
-
124.5
124.5
124.5
124.4
124.3
124.8
125.2
125.6
126.0
126.5
126.5
126.5
126.4
126.5
126.5
126.1
125.6
124.9
124.0
123.3
-
970
970
975
975
980
980
985
985
985
985
990
992
998
1000
1004
1008
1012
1012
1012
1010
-
50
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
50
50
45
45
40
35
-
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
Dissip
50
40
40
30
30
0 01 9
TY YAGI
20
20
0 01 9
11
10 0
0
17
10
120
2503 Oct
160
13 0
15 0
140
20
TY XANGSANE (0020)
A tropical depression formed southeast of Yap Island at 18UTC 24 October 2000. It
gradually developed moving west-northwestward and became a tropical storm east of the
Philippines at 06UTC 26 October. On the west-northwestward track, the storm attained
STS intensity at 00UTC 27 October and made landfall on the east coast of the Philippines
around 21UTC 27 October. It slightly weakened passing Luzon and entered the South
China Sea on the early morning of 29 October. Xangsane then decelerated westward
movement and almost remained stationary until 18UTC 29 October, when it started
moving to the north-northeast. Shortly the storm re-intensified to attain TY intensity at
00UTC 30 October and reached its peak with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots
west of Luzon. Xangsane continued to move north-northeastward for the following two
days keeping TY intensity and passed just east of Taiwan on the morning of 1 November.
Entering the East China Sea, it turned to the northeast and transformed into an
extratropical cyclone at 12UTC 1 November.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY XANGSANE (0020)
24 Oct - 2 Nov
Oct 24/18
25/00
25/06
25/12
25/18
26/00
26/06
26/12
26/18
27/00
27/06
27/12
27/18
28/00
28/06
28/12
28/18
29/00
29/06
8.3
8.4
9.1
9.1
9.2
10.0
10.3
10.6
11.0
12.3
12.6
13.3
13.6
13.7
14.2
14.8
15.6
15.9
15.9
139.3
138.1
136.9
135.4
133.9
133.3
131.4
130.3
128.8
127.8
126.1
125.0
123.6
122.3
121.3
120.5
119.8
119.1
118.2
24 Oct - 2 Nov
1008
1008
1004
1004
1004
1004
998
996
992
985
980
975
975
980
985
990
990
990
985
35
40
45
50
55
60
60
55
50
45
45
45
50
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
TS
TS
STS
Oct 29/12
29/18
30/00
30/06
30/12
30/18
31/00
31/06
31/12
31/18
Nov 01/00
01/03
01/06
01/09
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
02/12
15.9
16.0
16.5
16.7
17.2
18.0
18.5
19.7
20.9
22.4
24.3
25.2
26.2
27.3
28.6
31.1
32.7
33.4
-
118.1
118.1
118.3
118.8
119.2
119.5
119.6
120.2
120.5
121.2
122.0
122.3
123.0
124.0
125.7
128.9
131.8
134.9
-
980
975
965
960
960
960
960
960
960
965
975
985
985
985
992
1000
1006
1006
-
55
60
70
75
75
75
75
75
75
70
60
50
50
50
-
STS
STS
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
TY
STS
STS
STS
STS
L
L
L
L
Dissip
40
40
30
30
0 02 0
20
20
11
10 0
0
17
10
TY XANGSANE
1 20
1 60
13 0
15 0
140
0 02 0
3006 Oct
21
STS BEBINCA (0021)
While Xangsane was located west of Luzon, Bebinca formed as a tropical depression
north of Palau Island at 18UTC 30 October. It followed almost the same course that
Xangsane took about six days before and developed into a tropical storm northeast of
Mindanao Island at 00UTC 1 November. The storm further intensified into a severe
tropical storm southeast of Luzon at 18UTC 1 November. It then started weakening
around 18UTC 2 November, when it made landfall on the southern part of Luzon, and
was downgraded into a tropical storm on the west coast of the Island at 00UTC 3
November. As Bebinca entered the South China Sea, it re-intensified to attain STS
intensity again at 00UTC 4 November. It made a northward turn on 5 November and
then a westward turn on 6 November with gradual weakening. The system weakened to a
tropical depression southeast of Hong Kong at 00UTC 7 November.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
STS BEBINCA (0021)
30 Oct - 7 Nov
Oct 30/18
31/00
31/06
31/12
31/18
Nov 01/00
01/06
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
02/12
02/18
03/00
03/06
03/12
03/18
8.3
8.9
9.1
9.6
10.1
10.7
11.3
12.0
12.8
13.6
14.2
14.5
14.6
14.7
15.0
15.4
15.8
135.1
133.4
132.0
130.9
130.0
129.1
128.2
127.2
126.2
124.9
123.5
122.5
121.5
120.5
119.5
118.8
118.2
30 Oct - 7 Nov
1004
1004
1002
1002
1000
998
996
994
990
985
985
985
990
998
996
994
992
35
35
45
50
55
55
55
50
35
40
45
45
TD
TD
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
TS
TS
TS
Nov 04/00
04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
05/06
05/12
05/18
06/00
06/06
06/12
06/18
07/00
07/06
07/12
07/18
08/00
16.3
16.6
16.7
16.9
17.1
17.7
18.5
19.3
19.9
20.1
20.1
20.2
20.4
20.7
20.8
21.0
-
117.5
117.2
117.1
116.9
116.8
116.8
116.8
117.1
117.1
116.9
116.8
116.5
115.8
114.8
114.3
113.4
-
990
985
985
985
985
985
980
980
985
990
996
1000
1006
1006
1006
1008
-
50
55
55
55
55
55
60
60
55
50
40
35
-
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
STS
TS
TS
TD
TD
TD
TD
Dissip
40
40
30
30
0 02 1
20
20
11
10 0
0
17
10
STS BEBINCA
120
160
13 0
15 0
140
0 02 1
0203 Nov
22
TS RUMBIA (0022)
A tropical depression formed west of Palau Island at 18UTC 27 November 2000.
Moving west, it developed into a tropical storm over the same waters at 12UTC 28 November.
Slightly turning to the west-northwest, Rumbia kept TS intensity until 18UTC 30 November,
when it weakened into a tropical depression on southeastern Samar Island of the Philippines.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TS RUMBIA (0022)
27 Nov - 2 Dec
Nov 27/18
28/00
28/06
28/12
28/18
29/00
29/06
29/12
29/18
8.3
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.7
8.7
8.9
9.2
132.5
131.8
131.4
131.2
130.8
130.4
130.2
129.5
128.9
27 Nov - 2 Dec
1000
1000
998
996
990
992
992
992
992
35
40
40
40
40
40
TD
TD
TD
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
Nov 30/06
30/12
30/18
01/00
01/06
01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.6
11.9
12.0
12.0
11.9
-
127.4
126.7
125.6
124.4
123.7
123.0
122.2
121.4
-
990
994
998
1000
1000
1002
1002
1004
-
40 TS
40 TS
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- Dissip
40
40
30
30
20
20
11
10 0
0 02 2
0
17
10
TS RUMBIA
120
160
13 0
15 0
140
0 02 2
2903 Nov
23
TY SOULIK (0023)
Soulik was generated in late December and lived beyond the year-end for the first
time in the last 15 years. A tropical depression formed east of Mindanao Island at 18UTC
28 December. It moved northward initially and then made westward turn toward the
Philippines on the following day. On the westward track Soulik became a tropical storm
about 200km east of Layte Island at 00UTC 30 December. The storm changed its track to
the northeast and attained STS intensity at 18UTC 31 December. Soulik moved eastnortheastward keeping STS intensity until 00UTC 2 January 2001, when it turned to the
north-northeast south of Okinotorishima. After slightly weakening on the day, it moved
northeastward and began to develop rapidly on 3 January. The storm became a typhoon
at 06UTC 3 January and reached its peak with maximum sustained winds of 80 knots
at 12UTC of the day. It however weakened quickly to a tropical depression over the same
waters at 12UTC of the following day.
Date/Time
(UTC)
Center position
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
Date/Time
Center position
(UTC)
Lat. (N) Lon. (E)
Central
pressure
(hPa)
Max.
wind
(kt)
Grade
TY SOULIK (0023)
28 Dec - 04 Jan
Dec 28/18
29/00
29/06
29/12
29/18
3/000
30/06
30/12
30/18
31/00
31/06
31/12
31/18
Jan 01/00
01/06
7.8
8.7
9.3
10.0
10.4
10.4
10.7
11.0
11.7
12.4
13.1
13.8
14.4
14.8
15.2
130.2
130.3
129.9
129.5
128.5
127.8
127.1
127.4
127.8
128.0
128.5
129.6
130.7
131.8
132.4
28 Dec - 04 Jan
1002
1002
1000
1000
998
994
992
990
990
990
990
990
985
985
985
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
- TD
35 TS
40 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
45 TS
50 STS
50 STS
50 STS
Jan 01/12
01/18
02/00
02/06
02/12
02/18
03/00
03/06
03/12
03/18
04/00
04/06
04/12
04/18
05/00
15.5
15.6
15.8
16.3
16.7
17.0
17.2
17.5
17.9
18.2
18.3
18.5
18.3
18.0
-
133.2
133.9
134.5
134.6
134.7
134.8
135.0
135.5
135.9
136.2
136.6
136.9
137.2
137.6
-
985
985
985
990
990
985
980
965
955
955
960
975
990
1000
-
50
50
50
45
45
50
55
70
80
80
70
60
45
-
STS
STS
STS
TS
TS
STS
STS
TY
TY
TY
TY
STS
TS
TD
Dissip
40
40
30
30
20
20
TY SOULIK
11
10 0
0
17
10
0 02 3
1 20
1 60
13 0
15 0
140
0306 Jan
0 02 3
24
Appendix 5
(a) RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory (WTPQ20-25 RJTD)
WTPQ i i RJTD YYGGgg
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME class ty-No. name (common-No.)
ANALYSIS
PSTN YYGGgg UTC LaLa.La N LoLoLo.Lo E (or W) confidence
MOVE direction SpSpSp KT
PRES PPPP HPA
MXWD VmVmVm KT
50KT RdRdRd NM
(or 50KT RdRdRd NM octant SEMICIRCLE RdRdRd NM ELSEWHERE)
30KT RdRdRd NM
(or 30KT RdRdRd NM octant SEMICIRCLE RdRdRd NM ELSEWHERE)
FORECAST
24HF YYGGggF UTC LaLa.LaF N LoLoLo.LoF E (or W) FrFrFr NM 70%
PRES PPPP HPA
MXWD VmVmVm KT
MOVE direction SpSpSp KT =
Notes:
a. Underlined is fixed.
b. Abbreviations
PSTN
MOVE
PRES
MXWD
24HF
48HF
72HF
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
Position
Movement
Pressure
Maximum wind
24-hour forecast
48-hour forecast
72-hour forecast
ii
YYGGgg
:
:
class
ty-No.
:
:
'20', '21', '22', '23', '24' or '25'.
Time of observation submitting the data for analysis. Date(YY), hour(GG) and minute(gg)
are given in UTC.
Intensity classification of the tropical cyclone. 'TY', 'STS', 'TS' or 'TD'.
Domestic identification number of the tropical cyclone adopted in Japan. Given in four digits
and same as the international identification number.
c. Symbolic letters
name :
Name assigned to the tropical cyclone from the name list
prepared by the Typhoon Committee.
common-No.
LaLa.La
LoLoLo.Lo
confidence
direction
SpSpSp
PPPP
VmVmVm
RdRdRd
octant
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
International identification number of the tropical cyclones given in four digits.
Latitude of the center position in "ANALYSIS" part.
Longitude of the center position in "ANALYSIS" part.
Confidence of the center position. 'GOOD', 'FAIR' or 'POOR'.
Direction of movement given in 16 azimuthal direction as 'N', 'NNE', 'NE', 'ENE' etc.
Speed of movement.
Central pressure.
Maximum sustained wind.
Radii of 30knots and 50knots wind.
Eccentric distribution of wind given in 8 azimuthal direction as 'NORTH', 'NORTHEAST',
'EAST' etc.
YYGGggF
LaLa.LaF
LoLoLo.LoF
FrFrFr
:
:
:
:
Time in UTC on which the forecast is valid.
Latitude of the center of 70% probability circle in "FORECAST" part.
Longitude of the center of 70% probability circle in "FORECAST" part.
Radius of 70% probability circle.
d. MOVE is optionally described as 'ALMOST STATIONARY' or '(direction) SLOWLY' depending on the speed of movement.
Example:
WTPQ20 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0001 DAMREY (0001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 14.8N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150NM ELSEWHERE
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 16.3N 125.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 200000UTC 18.5N 126.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
72HF 210000UTC 20.5N 129.0E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT =
b) RSMC Guidance for Forecast (FXPQ20-25 RJTD)
FXPQ i i RJTD YYGGgg
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
PSTN YYGGgg UTC LaLa.La N LoLoLo.Lo E (or W)
PRES PPPP HPA
MXWD WWW KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON (or GLOBAL) MODEL
TIME
PSTN
PRES
MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 LaLa.La N LoLoLo.Lo E (or W) appp HPA awww KT
:
:
T=78 (or 84) LaLa.La N LoLoLo.Lo E (or W) appp HPA awww KT=
Notes:
b. Symbolic letters
ii
:
YYGGgg
:
PPPP
:
WWW
:
a
:
ppp
:
www
:
'20', '21', '22', '23', '24' or '25'.
Initial time of the model in UTC.
Central pressure in hPa.
Maximum wind speed in knots.
Sign of ppp and www ( +, - or blank ).
Absolute value of change in central pressure from T=0, in hectopascals.
Absolute value of change in maximum wind speed from T=0, in knots.
c. The prediction terminates in T=78 for Typhoon Model and in T=84 for Global Model.
Example:
FXPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME T 0001DAMREY (0001)
PSTN 180000UTC 15.2N 126.3E
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 105KT
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
TIME PSTN
PRES
MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.4N 125.8E +018HPA -008KT
T=12 15.5N 125.6E +011HPA -011KT
T=18 15.8N 125.7E +027HPA -028KT
:
:
T=78 20.7N 128.8E +021HPA -022KT=
(c) SAREP (TCNA20/21 RJTD)
TCNA i i RJTD YYGGgg
CCAA YYGGg 47644 name (common-No.) nt nt LaLaLa Qc LoLoLoLo 1At Wt at tm
2St St // (9ds ds fs fs )=
Notes:
b. Symbolic letters
ii
:
YYGGgg
:
nt nt
:
LaLaLa
Qc
:
:
LoLoLoLo
At
Wt
:
at
:
tm
:
StSt
:
dsds
fsfs
:
:
20 for the observation at 03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC.
21 for the observation at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.
are given in UTC.
Serial number of the tropical cyclone in order of the time of its formation in the year. Given
in '01' - '99' irrespective of TS attainment in intensity.
Latitude given in 0.1E
Quadrant of the earth. 1:N/E, 2:S/E, 3:S/W and 4:N/W.
:
Longitude in 0.1E.
:
Confidence.
0: ≦10km
1: ≦20km
2: ≦50km
3: ≦100km
4: ≦200km 5: ≦300km
/: unable to determine
Mean diameter (d: degree in latitude) of cloud system.
0: d<1°
1: 1°≦d<2°
2: 2°≦d<3°
3: 3°≦d<4°
4: 4°≦d<5°
5: 5°≦d<6°
6: 6°≦d<7°
7: 7°≦d<8°
8: 8°≦d<9°
9: 9°≦d
24-hour intensity inclination.
0: further weakening
1: weakening
2: no change
3: intensifying 4: further intensifying
9: no former observation
Time interval (t: hour) for determination of movement.
0: t<1
1: 1≦t<2
2: 2≦t<3
3: 3≦t<6
4: 6≦t<9
5: 9≦t<12
6: 12≦t<15
7: 15≦t<18
8: 18≦t<21
9: 21≦t<30
/: no (9dsdsfsfs) group
Intensity.
00: weakening
15, 20, 25 … 80: CI-number (in 0.1)
99: under extratropical transformation
//: unable to determine
Direction of movement (in 10 ﾟ).
Speed of movement (in knots).
Example:
TCNA21 RJTD 180000
CCAA 18000 47644
DAMREY(0001) 29149 11272
11334 275// 92811=
(d) RSMC Prognostic Reasoning (WTPQ30-35 RJTD)
Example:
WTPQ30 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0001 DAMREY (0001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NOT CHANGE ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 60 HOURS FROM 180000 UTC.
TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WESTNORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
(e) Tropical Cyclone Advisory for SIGMET (FKPQ30-35 RJTD)
FKPQ i i RJTD YYGGgg
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY FOR SIGMET
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY CENTRE TOKYO
ANALYSIS
TIME YYGGggUTC
PSTN LaLa.La N LoLoLo.Lo E
PRES PPPPHPA
MXWD WWWKT
12HR-FCST
TIME YYGGggUTC
PRES PPPPHPA
MXWD WWWKT
24HR-FCST
TIME YYGGggUTC
PRES PPPPHPA
MXWD WWWKT=
Notes:
b. Abbreviations
PSTN
MOVE
PRES
MXWD
:
:
:
:
Position
Movement
Pressure
Maximum wind
c. Symbolic letters
ii
YYGGgg
:
:
class
ty-No.
:
:
name
:
common-No.
LaLa.La
LoLoLo.Lo
direction
SpSpSp
PPPP
WWW
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
'30', '31', '32', '33', '34' or '35'.
are given in UTC.
Intensity classification of the tropical cyclone. 'TY', 'STS', 'TS' or 'TD'.
Domestic identification number of the tropical cyclone adopted in Japan. Given in four digits
and same as the international identification number.
Name assigned to the tropical cyclone by JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam).
But for assignment, this is indicated as 'NAMELESS'.
International identification number of the tropical cyclones given in four digits.
Latitude of the center position.
Longitude of the center position.
Direction of movement given in 16 azimuthal direction as 'N', 'NNE', 'NE', 'ENE' etc.
Speed of movement.
Central pressure.
Maximum sustained wind.
d. MOVE is optionally described as 'ALMOST STATIONARY' or '(direction) SLOWLY' depending on the speed
of movement.
Example:
FKPQ30 RJTD 180000
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY FOR SIGMET
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY CENTRE TOKYO
NAME TY 0001 DAMREY (0001)
ANALYSIS
TIME 180000UTC
PSTN 14.8N 127.2E
MOVE WEST 012KT
PRES 0905HPA
MXWD 105KT
12HR-FCST
TIME 181200UTC
PSTN 15.5N 126.2E
MOVE WNW 009KT
PRES 0910HPA
MXWD 105KT
24HR-FCST
TIME 190000UTC
PSTN 16.3N 125.7E
MOVE NNW 006KT
PRES 0910HPA
MXWD 100KT =
(f) RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Track (AXPQ20 RJTD)
AXPQ20 RJTD YYGGgg
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME ty-No. name (common-No.)
PERIOD FROM MMMDDTTUTC TO MMMDDTTUTC
DDTT LaLa.LaN LoLoLo.LoE PPPHPA WWWKT DDTT LaLa.LaN LoLoLo.LoE PPPHPA WWWKT
:
:
REMARKS1)
TD FORMATION AT MMMDDTTUTC
FROM TD TO TS AT MMMDDTTUTC
:
:
DISSIPATION AT MMMDDTTUTC=
Notes:
b.
1)
REMARKS is given optionally.
c. Symbolic letters
MMM
:
DD
:
TT
:
PPP
:
WWW
:
Month in UTC. Given as 'JAN', 'FEB', etc.
Date in UTC.
Hour in UTC.
Central pressure.
Maximum wind speed.
Example:
AXPQ20 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 0001 DAMREY (0001)
PERIOD FROM OCT1300UTC TO OCT2618UTC
1300 10.8N 155.5E 1008HPA //KT 1306 10.9N 153.6E 1006HPA //KT
1312 11.1N 151.5E 1004HPA //KT 1318 11.5N 149.8E 1002HPA //KT
1400 11.9N 148.5E 1000HPA //KT 1406 12.0N 146.8E 998HPA 35KT
:
:
1712 14.6N 129.5E 905HPA 105KT 1718 14.7N 128.3E 905HPA 105KT
:
:
2612 32.6N 154.0E 1000HPA //KT 2618 33.8N 157.4E 1010HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT OCT1300UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT OCT1406UTC
FROM TS TO STS AT OCT1512UTC
FROM STS TO TY AT OCT1600UTC
FROM TY TO STS AT OCT2100UTC
FROM STS TO TS AT OCT2112UTC
FROM TS TO L AT OCT2506UTC
DISSIPATION AT OCT2700UTC=
RSMC Data Serving System
Appendix 6
List of GPV products and data on the RSMC Data Serving System
Area
20S-60N,80E-160W
Resolution
Level
and
Elements
2.5x2.5 deg
20S-60N,60E-160W
global area
1.25x1.25 deg
2.5x2.5 deg
surface(P,U,V,T,TTd,R)
surface(P,U,V,T,TTd,R)
surface(P,U,V,T,R)
surface(P,U,V,T,TTd)
850hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd,w)
1000hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
850hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
1000hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
700hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
850hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
500hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd,vor)
850hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd,w,str)
500hPa(Z,U,V,T)
700hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
300hPa(Z,U,V,T)
300hPa(Z,U,V,T)
500hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
250hPa(Z,U,V,T)
500hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd,vol)
250hPa(Z,U,V,T)
400hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
200hPa(Z,U,V,T)
400hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
200hPa(Z,U,V,T)
300hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
150hPa(Z,U,V,T)
300hPa(Z,U,V,T,TTd)
100hPa(Z,U,V,T)
250hPa(Z,U,V,T)
100hPa(Z,U,V,T)
250hPa(Z,U,V,T)
200hPa(Z,U,V,T)
200hPa(Z,U,V,T,str)
150hPa(Z,U,V,T)
150hPa(Z,U,V,T)
100hPa(Z,U,V,T)
100hPa(Z,U,V,T)
70hPa(Z,U,V,T)
70hPa(Z,U,V,T)
50hPa(Z,U,V,T)
50hPa(Z,U,V,T)
30hPa(Z,U,V,T)
30hPa(Z,U,V,T)
20hPa(Z,U,V,T)
20hPa(Z,U,V,T)
10hPa(Z,U,V,T)
10hPa(Z,U,V,T)
FCST
Hours
00,06,12,18,24,30,36,48,
00,06,12,18,24,30,36,42,48,54,60,66,72
00UTC : 24,48,72
60,72
12UTC: Surface(P,U,V,T,TTd,R), from 78 to
192 hours, every 6 hours
12UTC : 00,248,72,96,120
Time/Day
2 times (00 and 12 UTC)
Note: P : pressure reduced to MSL Z : geopotential height
V : v-component of wind
str : stream function
TTd: dew point depression
w: vertical velocity
Products
/Data
Contents
GMS Data
(a) Digital data (GRIB)
Cloud amount
vol : relative vorticity
U : u-component of wind
R : total precipitation T : temperature
Typhoon Information
Tropical cyclone related
information (BUFR)
Position, etc.
Global Wave Model
Wave height
Prevailing wave direction
Equivalent blackbody
temperature
Frequency
(initial
time(s))
Observations data
(a) Surface data
(SYNOP)
Wave period
Convective cloud amount
(b) Satellite-derived high
density cloud motion
vectors (BUFR)
(a) 4 times (00, 06, 12 and
18UTC) a day
(b) Once (04UTC) a day
00UTC : 00
(b) Upper air data
(TEMP, Part A-D)
(PILOT, Part A-D)
Forecast Times:
Initial,06,12,18,24,30,36,
42,48,54,60,72䇭(00&12UTC),
96,120,144,168,192䇭(12UTC)
4 times (00, 06, 12 and
18 UTC) a day
2 times (00 and 12 UTC) a day
(a)
(b)
Mainly 4 times a day
Mainly 2 times a day
Appendix 7
User’s Guide to the attached CD-ROM
Copyright (c) 2001 by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
All Right Reserved.
1) This CD-ROM should not be reproduced and not be provided to any third party.
2) The source should be properly acknowledged in any work obtained with this CD-ROM.
JMA does not accept liability for any direct and/or indirect loss or damage to the user caused
by the use of the software, data or documents in this CD-ROM.
Preface
This CD-ROM contains all the texts, tables, charts in this report and GMS-5 satellite
images of the tropical Cyclones that attained TS intensity or higher in the western North
Pacific and the South China Sea in 2000. This document is a brief user's guide for the CDROM. The CD-ROM was mastered in ISO-9660 format.
Directory and File layout
|------ar405eng.exe (Acrobat Reader Installer)
|------Readme.txt (belief explanation about the CD-ROM)
|------Contents.pdf (contents of Annual Report 2000 in PDF)
|------TopMenu.exe (Start menu setup program)
|------Users_Manual.htm (user’s manual of a satellite image viewer)
|------Annual_Report
|---Text
|--Text2000.pdf (text of Annual Report 2000 in PDF)
|--Text2000.doc (text of Annual Report 2000 for MS Word)
|---Figure (figures for MS PowerPoint)
|---Table (tables for MS Excel)
|---Appendix (appendixes for MS Excel, PowerPoint)
|------Programs
|---Gmslpd
|--Gmslpd.exe (Viewer; tropical cyclone version in English)
|--Gsetup.exe, etc. (Setup program, etc.)
|------Satellite_Image_Data
|---2000_1 (3-hourly GMS image data)
|---2000_2 (
to 2000_23)
|------Users_Manual
|--Gmanual.doc (User’s Manual for MS Word)
|------Andata
|--Best2000.txt (Best track data for the year 2000)
How to use this CD-ROM
When you set the CD-ROOM, start menu will be presented automatically with a panel
which has “Annual Report 2000”, “GMS Satellite Images”, “About CD-ROM” and “Close”
buttons and a file list box for some introductory documents. Select and click a button or file
which you want to see and follow instructions on your display.
Required hardware/OS for the CD-ROM are:
Hardware ：DOS-V, NEC PC-9800 Series or their compatible
：Microsoft Windows Ver. 3.1 or later
OS
< Annual Report 2000 >
Annual Report 2000 is prepared in the following two formats: ”PDF files” and “MS
Word/Excel/PowerPoint files”.
- PDF files:
Click the “Annual Report 2000” button　to open the annual report 2000 in PDF. If you
can not open the PDF file, install ‘Adobe Acrobat Reader’ with its installer (ar405eng.exe) in the
file list box on a start menu window, and try again. ‘Adobe Acrobat Reader’ (or ‘Adobe
Acrobat’) is required to view PDF files.
- Word/Excel/PowerPoint files:
Original texts, figures and tables prepared with Microsoft Word, Excel or PowerPoint
are stored in Annual_Report holder of the CD-ROM.
< GMS Satellite Images >
- Installation of a program for displaying satellite images:
Click the “GMS Satellite Image” button to run a setup program (Gsetup.exe) of a
satellite image viewer. If you follow some instructions, the viewer ‘Gmslpd.exe’, which is a
program for displaying satellite images, will be installed into the harddisk of your computer
and a list of the tropical cyclones in 2000 is displayed in the ‘Selection window’ of satellite
images for tropical cyclones.
- Displaying satellite images:
Select a tropical cyclone from the list and click the name, and 3-hourly satellite images
for the tropical cyclone will be displayed. You can display the track of the tropical cyclone
superimposed on the satellite image and measure the intensity of the tropical cyclone using
Dvorak's technique.
- User’s manual for the viewer:
Besides the above functions, the viewer has many useful ones. See the User's Manual
(Users_Manual.htm or /Users_Manual/Gmanual.doc) about further detailed operations.
- Explanation of satellite image data
Period
Images
: From Generating Stage to Weakening Stage of each tropical cyclone.
: Infrared images (00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21UTC)
Visible images (00, 03, 06, 09, 21UTC)
Range
: 40 degrees in both latitude and longitude.
(The image window moves following a tropical cyclone's track so that the
center of a tropical cyclone is fixed at the center of the image window.)
Time interval : 3-hourly
Resolution
: 0.08 degrees in both latitude and longitude.
Compression of file : Compressed using 'compress.exe' command of Microsoft Windows.
< About CD-ROM >
Click the “About CD-ROM” button to open ReadmeE.txt file.
< Close >
Click the “Close” button to close start menu window.
< file list box >
You can open introductory document files from a file list box on the start menu window.
Select a file and click the “Open” button or double click the file name.
Microsoft Windows is the registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the
United States and other countries. Adobe and Acrobat Reader are the trade mark of
Adobe Systems Incorporated.
PC-9800 Series is the trademark of NEC Corporation.
For further information, please contact the following address:
RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center,
Forecast Division,
Forecast Department,
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8122 Japan
FAX: +81-03-3211-8303
e-mail: k-sasaki@met.kishou.go.jp
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8122 Japan

Annual Report on Activities of the RSMC Tokyo

Transcription

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