The Next 10 years - Mobile Future Forward

Transcription

Chetan Sharma
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD
Sept 8, 2010
Greetings,
The global mobile industry has made phenomenal strides in the past 15 years yet best is still to come.
The mobile ecosystem has become much more dynamic, lightening fast paced, and breathtakingly
unpredictable. The evolution of mobile services is impacted by several key forces of change. These
include technology innovation and diffusion, consumer behavior, globalization, and easing of the
regulations to promote trade and commerce. This is leading to the emergence of new players and new
ecosystem dynamics, as well as the creation of open architectures.
In 1991, Mark Weiser, in his seminal article, “The Computer of the Twenty First Century,” described
computing as “a world in which humans and computers were seamlessly united.” The article opened
with “The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric
of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.” If we look forward to the next 10 years of
evolution in the mobile industry, two things are certain.
First, over this decade, mobile will become so ingrained and embedded in our daily lives that, as Weiser
suggested, it will be indistinguishable from the mundane. Second, the very definition of a mobile device
and mobility will undergo a drastic transformation over the next decade. Instead of just mobile phones
having cellular radios and connectivity, there will be hundreds and thousands of different devices, each
a unique appliance, which will have wireless connectivity to the network. There will be sensors in the
buildings we live in, the clothes we wear, the roadways we commute on, and the vehicles we drive in.
Almost everything of substance will have connectivity. With the evolution in networking technologies,
middleware architectures, and mobile devices, we are entering a new era of always-on, real-time access
mobile experiences.
We are putting together an exciting Executive Summit - Mobile Future Forward to bring together
thought leaders who are some of the most influential minds in the mobile industry and are shaping the
ecosystem evolution. These experts and visionaries from around the globe will discuss the mobile
industry 5 years forward, envision what the user experience and the use case scenarios look like, discuss
and debate the challenges and opportunities in the journey to that vision.
This paper describes various themes for the conference through a series of pictures that try to capture
the essence, the complexity, the opportunity, and the debate within each of the micro trends. At the
Mobile Future Forward conference, these will be the topic areas of our conversation with some of the
best minds in the industry.
We would love to hear your feedback on what matters to you the most and your suggestions on how we
can make the program better. We look forward to seeing you at the event.
Thanks
Chetan Sharma
Chief Curator - Mobile Future Forward
2
The Last 10 years | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved.
www.mobilefutureforward.com
Sept 8, 2010
The Last 10 years
Global Mobile Industry: The Last Decade
$900
Revenue in Billions
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$-
2B Appstore dwld
5000
China > 700M subs
iPhone, Ovi
India > 500M subs
imode > 5M subs
China > 400M subs
Data revenues >4500
$200B
JP DARPU > $10
India > 100M subs
Japan > 90% 3G
FI, DE, JP
Vodafone leaves
4000
Japan
>
50%
3G
TeliaSonera LTE launch
DARPU > 10%
Japan
US >200M subs
Global DARPU > 20%
US > 100M subs
DoCoMo > $10B
3500
Western
Europe
12% global penetration Japan 3G launch
DoCoMo DARPU ~ 50%
in data revenues
> 100% penetration
5 operators > $10B
RIM Blackberry
Nokia N95
India crosses US in data revenues3000
100M 3G subs
China > 200M subs
GLobal Subs > 3B
as #2 market
2B GSM subs
imode launches
Nortel bankruptcy
SE T68i (MMS support)
iPhone launch
2500
China Mobile
Mobile becomes Huawei wins LTE
First Commercial
Mobile > Fixed
a Trillion$ industry contracts in Europe
becomes the most
MVNO by Virgin UK
2000
Vodafone re-enters68% global penetration
valued operator
Bluetooth devices imode > 30M subs
Indian market
China > 100M subs
Windows Mobile
DoCoMo > $10B in
1500
First camera/bluetooth
data revenues
US crosses JP in
Razr
data revenues
phone from
Telefonica-O2 merger
1000
Android launch
JPhone/Sharp
Nokia 6300
Nokia ships 100M
500
UK > 100% penetration
units/qtr
SE W800i (walkman)
0
Subscriptiosns in Millions
$1,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Data Revenue
2005
2006
Revenue
2007
2008
2009
©Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
Subscriptions
Global Handset Marketshare Over the Last Decade
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Nokia
Samsung
LG
SonyEricsson
Motorola
Blackberry
Apple iPhone
Others
2009
300
iPhone 3GS
Pre, Droid
Google buys
3G networks start
250
Admob
launching
Cisco
buys
Starent
Smartphone % rises
Data traffic > 1 EB
$1M Mobile Ad
First $10B quarter
200
campaign starts
Facebook > 100M
Verizon Data Rev
subs
on
mobile
> $1B/qtr
700 MHz
DARPU > 30%
Cingular buys ATTMS Origami
Spectrum Auction
150
Industry weathers
becomes #1
Appstore
wreaks
iPhone launches,
recession
Sprint buys Nextel the world changes
havoc
Google Phone
Data ARPU > $5
TMO /Android
US > 250M
100
Netadds peak
VZ
buys
Alltel
Everyone chants
at 7M
Open Mantra becomes #1
Spectacular rise ATT buys Wayport
> Trillion TXTs
and fall of MVNOs
50
TMO @Home
3G ~ 25%
$140
Voicestream
acquired by DT
becomes TMO US
Mobilestar bankruptcy
acquired by Voicestream
Metricom bankruptcy
iPod
Revenue in Billions
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
Windows Mobile
ATT/DoCoMo JV
VZ #1 Operator
Data Rev < $0.5B
$20
American Idol
DARPU < 1%
TMO launches
Hotspot business
RIM Blackberry
Razr storms the
handset world
US Service Rev/
qtr > $100B
CinBell's first UMA launch, Storm
Kindle
$2000
2001
2002
2003
Data Revenue
3
2004
2005
Revenue
2006
Subscriptions
The Last 10 years | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved.
2007
2008
0
2009
Subscriptions in Millions
US Mobile Industry: The Last Decade
$160
The Next 10 years: Trends that matter
1. Mobile ecosystem is getting complex
1
2. Network evolution: more capacity, more bandwidth, tremendous usage
1
Source: Adapted from T-Mobile USA
4
The Next 10 years: Trends that matter | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved.
Sept 8, 2010
3. New sources of revenue: mobile advertising, commerce, and services
4. Evolution of content, media, entertainment, and commerce
2
2
Source: Microsoft Home, Perceptive Pixel, Intel
5
Sept 8, 2010
Sept 8, 2010
5. Evolution of communication
?
IM
Voice
< 1992
?
Facebook
?
IM
?
Email
Facebook/Twitter
IM
Email
Text/MMS
Email
Text/MMS
Video
RCS
Text/MMS/Video
Text
Text
VoIP
VoIP
Email/IM
Voice
Voice
Voice
Voice
Voice/VoIP
1993
1999
2002
2010
Voice Revenues
2015
6. Always on Real-Time Access - mobile cloud computing & instant access to anything
6
© Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
Carrier is typically only a
transport provider
Twitter
Data Revenues
?
Sept 8, 2010
7. Internet of things: mobile device as a remote of our lives
HOME NETWORK
Smarter and Flexible
Devices
Self-forming, Selfhealing, Best Available
Intercarrier Handoff
5/6G
Entertainment
WLAN
MESH
3G/4G
Superdistribution and
Communication
Field Service
Automation
News and Alerts
Intertech Handoff
mHealth
Telematics
Semantic Web
WPAN
Mobile Commerce
Productivity Apps
Frequency and network
agnostic
Mobile Enterprise
Emergency Response
Teleworking
mGovernance
Real-Time Information
Access
Firewall
OFFICE NETWORK
OUTDOOR NETWORK
Life’s New Remote Control
mAgriculture
Mobile Payments
Education
Remittances
Security
Tracking and Navigation
Simultaneous video,
audio, talk, IM, internet
access
Context and Ambient
Awareness
Pervasive
Security and Privacy
IN-VEHICLE NETWORK
8. The world is flat - globalization and competition
7
Social Networking
Shared Experiences
Sept 8, 2010
9. Mobile as a platform - let a thousand industries bloom
Social Networking
Doctor Counseling
Live Class Transmission
Field Force Automation
Complaint Filing
Disaster Alert
Celebrity Alert
Health Monitoring
Real-Time Collaboration
Sales Force Automation
Accessing Govt Programs
Evacuation Guidance
Live TV
Appointment Reminder
Peer Networking
M2M
Registering to Vote
Relief Notification
Music Download Service
Pay the Doctor
Virtual Field Trips
Video Conferencing
Homeland Security
Social Organization
Entertainment
mHealth
mEducation
Enterprise
Applications
mGovernance
Public Safety
CRM, Email
Payments, Banking
Location, Presence,
Awareness
Performance, Policy
Management
Billing
Personalization,
Identity
Messaging,
Browsing
Video, Music
Security,
Authentication
Advertising
ACCESS
WCDMA/LTE
EV-DO
WiMAX
Cable
FTTH
OPERATOR
NTT DoCoMo
China Mobile
Vodafone
ATT
Telefonica
APPLICATION
MODULES
NETWORK
CAPABILITY
Integrated Mservices Platform
10. New Experiences - display, interaction and commerce
3
3
Source: Fjord, Microvision
8
Sept 8, 2010
11. Reallocation of revenues - winners and losers are decided in reallocation
12. Battle for the analytical mind - data, context and intelligence drives everything
Demographics/Explicit
Profile
Interests/Implicit Profile
Browsing, Watching,
Previewing, Flipping
Sensor data
Purchasing, Payments
User Intent
Communications
Location
Search (Local, Online,
Media)
Presence
Physiological parameters
DRIVES
Transactions
(from User)
User Experience
Address Book
Gifting
Social Community
Advertising
Intellectual Community
M2M
Pricing
Preferences
Security/Authorization
Devices in the vicinity
3rd Party Sources
9
Knowledge
(about User)
Calendar
Sept 8, 2010
13. Shifts in ecosystem - the ups and downs, and shifts of revenue sand dunes
14. Nurturing ecosystems - aggregating the developers and partners
# of APPS
% of PROFITS
LOWEST
HIGHEST
Acquisitions
Tool Providers
Admob
Flurry Millennial Media
HIGHER
Amazon
Real
SUN
Paypal
Glu Mobile
LOWER
Direct TV
TiVO
Microsoft
Google
Content & IP
Digital Choclate
The Weather
Channel
Facebook
NY Times
Operators
OEMS
RIM
ATT
Verizon
Apple
Sprint
Motorola
T-Mobile
Samsung
LG
Nokia
HIGHEST
LOWEST or
NEGLIGIBLE
Microsoft
Google
10
Orange
China Mobile
15. Managing the network - what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger
11
Sept 8, 2010
Sept 8, 2010
Partial List of Thought Leaders attending the Summit
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Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T
Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble
Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo
Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP & GM, Intel
Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype
Hank Skorny, SVP, Media Mobile Cloud Computing, Real Networks
Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN,
Paul Palmieri, Founder and CEO, Millennial Media
Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante
Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T
Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
Mike Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire
Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio
Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow & Director, User Experience, Intel
Jon Stross, VP & GM - Babycenter, Johnson & Johnson
Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, WellDoc
Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Officer, Global Health & Discovery, Bill & Melinda Gates
Foundation
Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association
Krishna Vedati, SVP & GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive
Takayuki Hoshuyama, COO D2 Communications
Neville Ray, SVP, T-Mobile
David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures
Russ McGuire, VP, Sprint Nextel
Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent
Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks
Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp
12
Partial List of Thought Leaders attending the Summit | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved.
Sept 8, 2010
About Mobile Future Forward Conference
Mobile Future Forward is produced by Chetan Sharma Consulting.
About Chetan Sharma Consulting
Chetan Sharma Consulting is one of the leading management consulting and strategic advisory firm in
the mobile industry. We are focused on evolving trends, emerging challenges and opportunities, new
business models and technology advances that will take our mobile communications industry to the
next level. Our expertise is in developing innovation-driven product and IP strategy. Our clients range
from small startups with disruptive ideas to multinational conglomerates looking for an edge. We assist
major brands formulate winning, profitable, and sustainable strategies.
Please visit us at www.chetansharma.com
13
About Mobile Future Forward Conference | © Copyright 2010, All Rights Reserved.

The Next 10 years - Mobile Future Forward

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