Market Report-Q3 1 - Colorado Springs Real Estate

MARKET REPORT
A
Q3
Third Quarter 2014
s Real Estate Agents, we pride ourselves in being able to work with just
about anyone. While some agents specialize or tailor their business towards
a certain type of client, we go out of our way to support clients of every
type. Over the years we have found that one of the keys to being able to work
with a wide range of personalities and interest is to remain neutral and shy away
from controversial topics. In this Quarterly Report, however, we put our shyness
aside and decided to jump in with both feet and address some controversial topics
and how we feel they impact the real estate market.
Predicting the real estate market is a favorite pastime of economists and business
leaders alike and data-loving Google is no different. Last spring, Google Capital
invested $50 million into Auction.com in order to develop new methods of
predicting home sales. Auction.com has developed what it calls the ‘Nowcast,’ a
monthly report that claims it can predict home sales up to a month faster than
the National Association of Realtors. “This is as close to real-time data as you can
get. We’re looking at search traffic that is taking place that month—and really
right up to the day of the ‘Nowcast’—to interpret what’s going on in the market,”
said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of Auction.com. Google calls this type
of data modeling “contemporaneous forecasting” or the ability to predict what is
happening while it is happening.
While the ‘Nowcast’ might seem trendy and cutting edge, its accuracy might
become as controversial as the ‘Zestimate’ that Zillow offers. Our experience
has told us that it is foolish to rely on any one number, or any one indicator of
anything. Pricing your home and predicting when it will sell is no different. Our
team uses a wide variety of information from comps, local market info, interest
rates, mortgage availability among many factors to come up with predictions that
will help your success with selling your home. Continue reading our Q3 Quarterly
Report to learn some other controversial impacts to the real estate market.
Negotiating a Real Estate Purchase - Brooke Mitchell
O
ver the past couple years our office has noticed an
influx of buyers from other areas. Now, we’re used to
the military coming from other states, but I’m talking
from other countries. Some have lived here for a bit, some
are Americans that are returning after living abroad, and
some are living in other countries ready to move and invest
in real estate here. This presents an interesting challenge
in negotiating offers, as the expectations vary by
area… Denver’s market is even different that the
Colorado Springs market. I love HGTV, but it films
all over the world, so negotiating techniques and
4500
expectations might not be realistic in every housing
4000
situation. I wouldn’t even pretend to tell you what
to expect while you purchase a home in Virginia,
3500
Canada, or Bolivia. People often ask, “how much
3000
should we offer?”, “how low is acceptable to offer?”,
etc. Unfortunately there isn’t a written rule or some
2500
set percentage, so we pull stats like an appraiser
2000
would and compare recent sales. No, Zillow’s
“zestimate” is NOT one of our resources, nor is the
1500
tax assessor value. Both of those are either too far
1000
out of the area to know our market, or possibly out
of date. So we go in with the best comparable sales,
500
make value adjustments and research how long the
0
home has been on the market and if they’ve done
719|388|4000
price reductions, to help you put your best foot forward in
making a great offer. There is still some competing offers
going on here, but it’s not quite like Denver (although it
was in the 2nd quarter of 2014!). Trust your local real estate
experts at Springs Homes to help you negotiate the best
price, whether you’re buying or selling!
Total Active versus Sold Listings
Q3-2013 – Q3 2014
4,070
3,227
3,135
2,318
3,440
3,236
www.SpringsHomes.com
Q4 2013
3,384
3,336
2,000
Total MLS Active Listings
Q3 2013
4,233
Q1 2014
Total MLS Sold Listings
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q3
2
Third Quarter 2014
MARKET REPORT
That Weird Home with the…
C
hris Butler, a musician and founding member of 80s
new wave band The Waitresses, used to describe his
former Ohio home as an “unbelievably cool pad.” He
thought the house was a great bargain—at $245,000—ghosts
and murders aside.
- Nicole Happel
2. Displaying your gun collection - Yes, Colorado is a
gun friendly state, but you don’t want to give buyers the impression that you’re some sort of triggerhappy vigilante.
3. Displaying your divorce decree on the kitchen table
and writing “my ex is a B” on the wall. Yes, you may
have been through a nasty divorce, but some buyers will actually walk out the door knowing that this
home was the stage for an ugly battle.
It makes Butler one of the few homeowners in America who
took pride in owning a stigmatized property. Butler’s now
former home was where serial killer and cannibal Jeffrey
Dahmer spent his childhood
and committed his first
murder. He didn’t mind once
he got past “the horror factor,”
he once told media outlets.
4. Displaying your deer heads and bear pelts on the
walls. Again, Colorado is known for it’s hunting, but
I once heard a buyer say “ I could never own a home
where dead things had hung on the wall.”
The horror factor is different for
all buyers. It may not take an
actual murder in the house to
horrify buyers. Simple things
can also be a deal breaker.
5. Advertising your political views. Now is not the
time to convince everyone that Ronald Reagan was
the greatest president in the history of the United
States. Put away your campaign buttons and bumper stickers.
6. Displaying your religious views. Buyers don’t want
to walk into a house with big statues of Buddha or
other deities in the living room.
Here is a list of items which may just make
that buyer run:
You get my point. Stay neutral when showing your home.
Don’t appear extreme in any way. Don’t give buyers reason to
discriminate against you and your home, because they will!
1. Growing marijuana - I highly recommend not doing
this if you want to make a good impression. Not all
buyers attend the pot fest in Denver.
Median List Price versus Sales Price
Q3 – 2013 to Q3 – 2014
$240,000
Median List Price
Listing Discount by Quarter
Q3 2013 - Q3 2014
4.0
Median Sales Price
$195,000
1.0
$187,500
$180,000
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
719|388|4000
$229,000
1.5
$231,000
$202,500
$223,900
2.0
$225,000
$210,000
$206,000
2.5
$209,900
$217,500
$217,280
3.0
$220,500
$225,000
$220,000
3.5
$225,000
$232,500
Q3 2014
2.2%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
List Price to Sales Price %
0.5
0.0
1.8 %
Q3 2013
www.SpringsHomes.com
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Third Quarter 2014
MARKET REPORT
Q3
3
Politics and Real Estate: Not So
Strange Bedfellows - Jennifer Boylan
Total Active Listings versus Total Sold Listings by Area
Q3 – 2014
450
Total Active by Area
400
Total Sold by Area
350
W
300
ould you guess that politics—both national and local—is
one of the most critical factors in determining the nature of
the real estate market in Colorado Springs and throughout
the country? It may not seem obvious at first, but policies set by
our legislative bodies influence the state of the economy, interest
rates, employment levels, mortgage costs and the level of consumer
confidence, all of which can have a positive or negative effect on real
estate.
250
200
150
You may be wondering what the correlation is between politics and
how much you are going to pay for a home. Since 2009, Congress
and state legislatures have been working diligently to turn the U.S.
economy around, but are often stymied by limited financial resources
vs. ever growing needs including infrastructure repair, municipal
services such as police and firefighters, military support, highway
maintenance and subsidized food programs. And, of course, there are
the ups and downs caused by the action of the Federal Reserve.
key
719|388|4000
WPK
WEST
TRI
UTE
S/E
S/W
PWR
N/W
OCC
N/E
90
60
BLA
BRI
CEN
EAS
FAL
FAN
F/V
MAN
N/E
NGT
N/W
OCC
PWR
S/E
S/W
TRI
UTE
WEST
WPK
0
101
84
78
65
126
93
75
75
65
96
86
86
70
66
74
82
100
62
98
30
Total Active Listings by Area
Q3 – 2014
UTE WEST WPK
2% 4%
1%
BLA
4%
BRI
8%
TRI
9%
CEN
6%
S/W
9%
S/E
3%
Our advice for current and prospective
homeowners in Colorado Springs and El Paso
County: no matter who wins the election,
prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Fountain Valley
Falcon
Falcon North
Manitou Springs
NGT
120
Many people are wondering what kind of impact the upcoming
presidential election of 2016 will have on the real estate market. No
matter which party wins the White House or holds the majority in
Congress, there will no doubt be spirited debate about subsidizing
mortgages, helping homeowners in foreclosure and supporting
affordable housing. One thing we can expect will be that mortgage
rates will increase, as they most likely cannot stay at the historically
low levels they currently hold.
F/V
FAL
FAN
MAN
F/V
150
If your local, city-run recreation center is allowed to deteriorate—that
will affect your home price when it’s time to sell. If Congress forgoes
the opportunity to repair crumbling highways that your neighbors
use to commute into the city—that will also affect your home’s value.
Black Forest
Briargate
Central
East
MAN
FAL
Average Days on Market by Area
Q3 – 2014
Politicians facing difficult choices that might negatively impact their
chances of being reelected often straddle the line between action
and inaction. Should the state legislature direct money towards
helping the Boulder County flood victims rebuild or authorize
funding support for early education programs? Will Congress reduce
military spending in order to repair crumbling bridges across the
country? Many of these decisions will have an impact on the real
estate market as neighborhoods thrive or decline based on how the
city, state and federal governments decide to spend the money.
BLA
BRI
CEN
EAS
FAN
EAS
BRI
CEN
BLA
50
0
122
70
265
251
190
175
158
193
24
31
184
156
380
451
55
26
223
263
185
112
176
120
64
72
220
349
93
168
291
170
273
176
34
16
74
69
114
74
100
Northeast
Northgate
Northwest
Old Colorado City
www.SpringsHomes.com
FAL
1%
FAN
6%
PWR
7%
OCC
2%
N/E
NGT
N/W
OCC
EAS
5%
N/W
6%
PWR
S/E
S/W
TRI
F/V
12%
NGT
6%
N/E
7%
Powers
Southeast
Southwest
Tri-Lakes
MAN
2%
UTE Ute Pass
WEST West
WPK Woodland Park
PRSRT STD
U.S. POSTAGE
PAID
PERMIT NO. 623
COLORADO SPRINGS, CO
Third Quarter 2014
MARKET REPORT
PO BOX 63837 • COLORADO SPRINGS, CO 80962
719.388.4000 • www.SPRINGSHOMES.com
Q3
4
Realtor Safety… - Kelly Moriarty
Third Quarter 2014
MARKET REPORT
O
$231,000
$225,000
$229,000
$220,000
$259,934
$251,200
n September 25th, Realtor Beverly Carter went missing after
Its important to be safe, be aware and always
know your surroundings. In the future, if an
meeting a prospective buyer, at a vacant home, in Scott,
Arkansas. Five days later, her body was found 20 miles away in
agent asks to scan your driver's license or brings a
fellow agent along on a showing, realize that it may
a shallow grave. This tragedy has touched Realtors all over the
be a new procedure mandated by their brokerage, or
country. I think that buyers & sellers should expect Realtors to be
just some extra precautions that the agent is taking.
more diligent about safety precautions
when showing properties in the future.
I’m hopeful that these safety tips become more of a
The National Association of Realtors
norm for Realtors in the future.
released the following 7 safety tips,
Year to Year Comparison
encouraging Realtors to make safety a
Q3 – 2013 to Q3 – 2014
priority in their offices.
260000
$260,000
1. Enact the CITO (Come into the office)
Q3 2013
Q3 2014
240000
rule & advocate some kind of client
$240,000
registration system.
220000
$220,000
2. Encourage agents to trust their
$200,000
instincts.
200000
180000
3. Set up a buddy system.
$180,000
4. Offer safety education.
160000
$160,000
5. Make sure practitioners are safe
140000
online too.
$140,000
120000
6. Recommend safety apps & products
$120,000
such as a GPS tracker or pepper spray.
$100,000
7. Insist on professionalism from100000
clients
Avg Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Median List Price
and agents alike.