EMDAT and Trends in Natural Disasters

EMDAT and Trends in Natural EMDAT
and Trends in Natural
Disasters
Debarati Guha‐Sapir
Debarati Guha
Sapir
CRED, Louvain School of Medicine Br ssels
Brussels
Venice, 2011
ARE DISASTERS INCREASING ?
Is it a real increase ?
Natural disasters 1900‐
Natural disasters 1900
1900‐2007
EM‐DAT created
(1988)
CRED created and OFDA began compiling (1973)
began compiling (1973)
OFDA created
(1964)
S
Source: EM‐DAT, OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database –
EM DAT OFDA/CRED I
i
l Di
D b
CRED Université Catholique de Louvain Brussels Belgium
CRED –
U i
i é C h li
d L
i B
l B l i
Debby G. Sapir
CRED
Trends in disasters
d i di
500
450
400
Number of disaste rs
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Earthquake, Volcano, Mass movement dry
Source: EM‐
Source: EM‐DAT DAT ‐‐ The OFDA/CRED International The OFDA/CRED International Disaster
Disaster Database
Climate‐related
SO ARE DISASTERS INCREASING ?
YES BUT
YES BUT……..
Yes but….deaths are decreasing
Yes but….deaths are decreasing
Yes but
but… geographic impacts are different
Occurrence of disasters
Victims/100 000 pop.
Y b
Yes but….. economic impacts are different
i i
diff
Damage costs (3-year moving average)
140000
Katrina
Damage costss (in $US Millio
D
on)
120000
100000
80000
Kobe
Low income
Middl I
Middle Income
60000
40000
20000
0
High Income
% SHARE OF CLIMATE‐RELATED
% SHARE OF CLIMATE
RELATED DISASTERS OF TOTAL
DISASTERS OF TOTAL
2007 2008
2009
EVENTS
93 7
93.7 90 5
90.5
91 4
91.4
AFFECTED
99 4
99.4
77 9
77.9
94 3
94.3
ECONOMIC LOSS 78.4
54.9
84.1
Climate‐related disasters 2000‐2009
Climate‐related
disasters 2000‐2009*:: what and where ?
REGION
TYPE
4% 5%
4%
6%
16%
Drought
Extreme temp.
17%
Africa
30%
Americas
Flood
Asia
Mass move. wet
24%
Storm
Wildfire
6%
Europe
Oceania
49%
39%
*January-November
January November
Debarati Guha-Sapir
TOP 10 COUNTRIES MOST HIT BY NATURAL DISASTERS
BY NATURAL DISASTERS
China P Rep
United States
Indonesia, Philippines
India
Afghanistan
Vietnam
Australia Burundi,
Australia,
Burundi Pakistan
Ethiopia, Mexico, Romania
Germany
Bangladesh, Canada, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia,
Papua New Guinea, Russia, Somalia
35
26
20
17
13
10
8
7
6
5
1. We need to identify proximal determinants of extreme climate
determinants of extreme climate events.
They will be actionable by poorer countries
countries and will produce shorter and will produce shorter
term results
Floods in Purulia, W Bengal 2008
Determinants of increase in acute climate events
POPULATION
INCREASE
(shanty towns in
embankments - Rio)
WEAK INFRASTRUCTURES
(floods and droughts)
Climate disasters
increasing
g
Affected
population
l
increasing
DEFORESTATION
(Haiti)
URBANIZATION
(drainage &
concretization - Rio)
Debarati Guha-Sapir
DO TRENDS IN CLIMATE DISASTERS AND VICTIMS FOLLOW POPULATION GROWTH? (1900
POPULATION GROWTH? (1900‐‐2009)
WORLD
SOUTH‐‐EAST ASIA
SOUTH
Population
Population
Vi ti
Victims
Victims
Events
Events
Central America
Northern Africa
Population
Population
Victims
Victims
Events
Events
* Includes: flood, wet mass movements, storms, extreme temperature, drought and wild fires
CRED, D.Guha‐‐Sapir, Geneva, Janu
CRED, D.Guha
2. More 2. More field
field evidence on on extreme
extreme climate
events and and their
their impact on populations EE.g. Effects
E.g. Eff t on Effects
on disease
di
disease
transmission and malnutrition
Figure 2. Mortality by age and gender (Tamil Nadu, India)
(T il N d I di )
Source: Guha‐‐Sapir D., Parry L., Degomme O., Joshi P.C., Saulina Arnold J.P. (2006) Risks factors for mortality and injury : Source: Guha
Post‐‐tsunami epidemiological findings from Tamil Nadu, CRED Working Paper, Brussels.
Post
Leptospirosis in Jakarta floods, 2008
p p
,
SEVERE FLOODS AND DISEASES
FECAL‐ORAL
Diarrhea
Cholera,
Rotavirus
Escherichia Coli
Salmonella
Shi ll
Shigella
Campylobacter
Non diarrheal diseases
Non diarrheal diseases
Typhoid/Paratyphoid fever
Hepatitis A/E
VECTOR BORNE
M l i
Malaria,
Dengue/DHF
West Nile Fever
West Nile Fever
Chikungunya
RODENT‐BORNE Hantavirus,,
Leptospirosis
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
STRATOSPHERIC PROBLEMS NEED GRASSROOTS SOLUTIONS
GRASSROOTS SOLUTIONS
Effective adaptation requires
better scientific evidence on how acute climate events concretely affect human li t
t
t l ff t h
populations
p
p