Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024

Transcription

Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
Strategic Management Office
Minister`s Office
PROJECTIONS OF
AGRIBUSINESS
Brazil 2013/14 to 2023/24
Long-Term Projections
Brasília • DF
September 2014
© 2014 Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.
All rights reserved. Reproduction permitted provided the source is acknowledged.
Responsibility for copyright texts and images of this work is the author.
5th edition. year 2014
Circulation: 1.000 copies
Preparation, distribution, information:
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FOOD SUPPLY
Strategic Management Office
General Coordination of Strategic Planning
Block D, 7th floor, room 752
CEP: 70043-900 Brasília / DF
.: Tel (61) 3218 2644
.: Fax (61) 3321 2792
www.agricultura.gov.br
email: age@agricultura.gov.br
Customer Service: 0800 704 1995
Editorial coordination: AGE / Mapa
Impresso no Brasil / Printed in Brazil
Catalogação na Fonte
Biblioteca Nacional de Agricultura - BINAGRI
Brazil. Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply.
Projections of agribusiness : Brazil 2013/14 to 2019/20 Longterm Projections / Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply.
Strategic Management Advisory Board. – Brasília :
MAPA/ACS, 2014.
98 p.
ISBN 978-85-7991-087-6
1. Agronegócio- Brasil. 2. Desenvolvimento Econômico. I. Título. II.
Título : Brazil 2013/14 to 2019/20 Long-term Projections.
AGRIS E71
CDU 339.56
TEAM:
AGE/Mapa
SGE/Embrapa
João Cruz Reis Filho
Geraldo da Silva e Souza
Renato de Oliveira Brito
Eliane Gonçalves Gomes
José Garcia Gasques
Eliana Teles Bastos
Marco Antonio A. Tubino
TECHNICAL PARTNERS:
Alcido Elenor Wander (Embrapa)
Francisco Olavo B. Sousa (Conab)
Aroldo Antônio O. Neto (Conab)
Glauco Carvalho (Embrapa)
Carlos Martins Santiago (Embrapa)
Gustavo Firmo (Mapa)
Cid Jorge Caldas (Agroenergia/Mapa)
Joaquim Bento S. Ferreira (Esalq)
Daniel Furlan Amaral (Abiove)
Kennya B. Siqueira (Embrapa)
Dirceu Talamini (Embrapa)
Leonardo Botelho Zilio (Abiove)
Djalma F. de Aquino (Conab)
Lucilio Rogério Aparecido Alves (Esalq)
Eledon Oliveira (Conab)
Luis Carlos Job (Mapa)
Elieser Barros Correia (Ceplac)
Luiz Antônio Pinazza (Abag)
Erly Cardoso Teixeira (UFV)
Milton Bosco Jr. (Bracelpa)
Fabio Trigueirinho (Abiove)
Olavo Sousa (Conab)
Francisco Braz Saliba (Bracelpa)
Tiago Quintela Giuliani (Mapa)
Wander Sousa (Conab)
SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION
2. SCENARIOS OF PROJECTIONS
3. METHODOLOGY
4. RESULTS FOR BRAZIL
a.Grains
b.
Coton Lint
c.Rice
d.Bean
e.Corn
f.Wheat
g.
Soybean Complex
h.Coffee
i.Milk
j.Sugar
k.
Orange and Orange Juice
l.Meat
m.
Pulp and Paper
n.Tobacco
o.Fruits
5. RESULTS OF REGIONAL PROJECTIONS
6. SUMMARY
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
ANNEX 1 - Methodological Note
ANNEX 2 - Results Tables
6
7
8
10
10
14
17
21
25
31
34
46
48
52
55
58
67
73
75
79
84
91
94
101
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ABIOVE - Associação Brasileira da Indústria de Óleos Vegetais
ABRAF- Associação Brasileira de Produtores de Florestas Plantadas
AGE - Assessoria de Gestão Estratégica
BRACELPA- Associação Brasileira de Celulose e Papel
CECAT - Centro de Estudos Estratégicos e Capacitação em Agricultura Tropical
CNA - Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil
CONAB - Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento
CEPLAC - Comissão Executiva de Planejamento da Lavoura Cacaueira
EMBRAPA Gado de Leite - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária
FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FAPRI - Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas
IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística
ICONE - Instituto de Estudos do Comércio e Negociações Internacionais
IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute
IPEA - Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada
MAPA - Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento
OECD - Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development
ONU - Organização das Nações Unidas
SGE- Secretaria de Gestão Estratégica
UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa
UNICA - União da Indústria de Cana-de-açúcar
USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
6
1.INTRODUCTION
This report is an update and revision of the report Projections
of Agribusiness - Brazil 2012/13 to 2022/23, Brasília - DF, June 2013,
published by the Strategic Management Office of Ministry of Agriculture,
Livestock and Food Supply.
The study aims to indicate possible directions of development
and provide support to policy makers about the trends of the major
agribusiness products. The results also seek to answer to a large number
of users in various sectors of national and international economy for
which the information now disclosed are of enormous importance. The
trends indicated will identify possible trajectories, as well as to structure
future vision of agribusiness in the global context for the country keep
growing and conquering new markets.
Projections of Agribusiness - Brazil 2013/14 to 2023/24 is a
prospective view of the sector, the basis for strategic planning of MAPA
- Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply. For their preparation the
work of brazilian and international organizations were consulted, some
of them based on models projections.
Among the surveyed institutions highlight the work of the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Food and
Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI), Organization for Economic Co-Operation and
Development ( OECD), United Nations (UN), United States Department
of Agriculture (USDA), Policy Research Institute / Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries, Japan (PRIMAFF), Confederation of Agriculture
and Livestock of Brazil (CNA), Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Brazilian
Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Institute for International
Trade Negotiations (ICONE), Institute of Applied Economic Research
(IPEA), National Supply Company (Conab), Embrapa Dairy Cattle, Energy
Research Company (EPE), the Sugar Cane Industry Union (UNICA),
Brazilian Association of Planted Forest Producers (ABRAF), Federation
of Industries of São Paulo (FIESP), STCP Consulting, Engineering and
Management, Brazilian Association of Pulp and Paper (BRACELPA),
Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) and the
Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG).
The study was conducted by a group of experts from the Ministry
of Agriculture and Embrapa, which cooperated in various stages of
preparation. Benefited also from the valuable contribution of people
/ institutions who analyzed the preliminary results and reported their
7
comments, views and ideas on the results of the projections.
Observations related to these collaborations were included in the
Report, without nominate partners, but the institutions to which they
belong.
2.
SCENARIOS OF PROJECTIONS
The scenario of rising prices should remain in 2014. Figure 1 shows
the quarterly prices received by U.S. farmers for crops and livestock. Despite the relative price fluctuations, the trend since 2005 has been lifting.
Note that the prices of livestock products in 2014 have higher growth
rates than crops.
Fig. 1 - Prices Received by Farmers in the United States
livestock 160 Crops 133 140 Index 120 100 80 80 98 60 40 57 0 01/2005 04/2005 07/2005 10/2005 01/2006 04/2006 07/2006 10/2006 01/2007 04/2007 07/2007 10/2007 01/2008 04/2008 07/2008 10/2008 01/2009 04/2009 07/2009 10/2009 01/2010 04/2010 07/2010 10/2010 01/2011 04/2011 07/2011 10/2011 01/2012 04/2012 07/2012 10/2012 01/2013 04/2013 07/2013 10/2013 01/2014 04/2014 20 Source: NASS/USDA, 2014.
8
Domestic prices in Brazil have also shown a tendency to increase
in some products as shown in Table 1. For some products, such as
soybeans, corn, cattle, rice and cotton prices have shown a trend of
growth in 2014. The prices for these products in 2014 are higher than the
historical rates and also the prices of 2013.
Table 1 – Prices received by Farmers in Brazil
Product
Unit
Historical
price
2013
2014
Wheat
R$/t
460.3
686.8
606.98
Soybean
R$/SC 60kg
37.5
65.4
67.7
Corn
R$/SC 60kg
23.9
26.9
30.2
Bovine
R$/@
64.5
105
122.5
Rice
R$/SC 50kg
26.8
33.8
35.3
Cotton
Cent./libra peso
136.12
202.14
219.9
Source: Cepea/Usp. Position at 17/04/2014
Brazil expects a record grains harvest in 2014, estimated at 193.6
million tons.
3.METHODOLOGY
The projections cover the period 2013/14 to 2023/24. In general,
the basic period of the projections cover 20 years. Taking into account
the last year experience, we decided to use, this year as a basic
reference period information after 1994. Between 1994 and today, as
we know, entered a phase of economic stabilization and this allowed a
reduction of uncertainty in variables.
9
The projections were performed using specific econometric
models. They are time series models that have great use in forecasting
series. The use of these models in Brazil, for the purpose of this report
is unprecedented. We are not aware of published studies in the country
who have worked with these models.
Three statistical models were used: exponential smoothing, BoxJenkins (Arima) and State-Space Model. There is a methodological note
(Annex 1) which presents the main characteristics of the three models.
The projections were performed for 26 agribusiness products:
corn, soybeans, wheat, orange, orange juice, chicken, beef, pork, sugar
cane, sugar, cotton, soybean meal, soybean oil, fresh milk, beans, rice,
potatoes, cassava, tobacco, coffee, cocoa, grape, apple, banana, pulp
and paper.
The report, however, not discussed all products, but their data are
shown in the tables that are part of the Annexes of the study.
The choice of the most likely model was made as follows:
1 Consistency of results;
2 International comparisons of data production, consumption,
export, import and trade in the country and the world.;
3 last trend of our data;
4 Growth Potential;
5. Consultations with experts.
The projections were generally for production, consumption,
export, import and planted area. Some tests with productivity of some
crops were conducted. The tendency was to choose more conservative
models and not those indicated bolder growth rates. This procedure
was used for selecting the most selected results.
The projections presented in this report are national, where the
number of products studied is comprehensive; and regional, where the
number of analyzed products is restricted and has specific interest.
10
The projections are accompanied by prediction intervals which
become wider with time. The greatest breadth of these ranges reflects
the greater uncertainty associated with more distant the last year of the
series used as the basis of the projection forecasts.
4. RESULTS FORECASTS FOR BRAZIL
a. Grains
Projections of grains refers to the 15 products surveyed monthly by
CONAB as part of their harvest surveys. This set of products is called
grains by Conab.
As of this update projections already has the data to the eighth
survey of harvest (May survey) for the soy complex products, corn and
other products, was used for the 2013/2014 harvest data released by
Conab( 2014 ): soybean, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, beans, meat
(beef, chicken, pork), and sugar cane. Thus, the data from 2013/2014
are projections Conab. The projections in this report for these products
starting in 2014/2015.
The estimates of grain production point to a crop of 193.6 million
tons in 2013/14, and a planted area of 56.4 million hectares (Conab
2014). These two variables are the largest that have been achieved in
Brazil over the years.
11
Table 2 – Planted area and Production of Grains
Year
Production
(thousand tons)
Planted Area
(thousand hectares)
Projection Up limit.
Projection Up limit
2013/14
193,566
-
56,861
-
2014/15
199,656
217,428
58,553
61,469
2015/16
205,411
226,469
59,741
65,172
2016/17
211,315
236,349
60,729
68,068
2017/18
217,176
245,257
61,654
70,621
2018/19
223,056
254,002
62,555
72,917
2019/20
228,930
262,458
63,448
75,051
2020/21
234,807
270,744
64,338
77,063
2021/22
240,684
278,874
65,227
78,985
2022/23
246,560
286,879
66,115
80,834
2023/24
252,437
294,778
67,004
82,624
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with Conab information.
* Models used: Space states.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
30.4%
Planted Area 17.8%
12
Fig. 2 – Planted area and Production of Grains
Planted Area (thousand hectares) Produc>on (thousand tons) 300,000 250,000 252,437 193,566 200,000 150,000 100,000 67,004 56,861 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 50,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
For 2014/2015 the production expected to be between 199.7 million
and 217.4 million tons of grains. This range of variation is a safety for
the occurrence of changes over which one has or little control such as
climate change droughts and rains.
Projections for 2023/2024 are a crop around 252.4 million tonnes,
representing an increase of 30.4% over the current crop. At the upper
end projection indicates a production of up to 294.8 million tons in
2023/24. The grain area should increase 17.8% between 2013/14 and
2023/24, from 56.9 million in 2013/2014 to 67.0 million in 2023/2024,
which corresponds to an annual increase of 1.6 %.
13
Table 3 – Brazil: Planted Area with Five Main Grains
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Rice
Bean
Corn
Soybean
Wheat
Total
3,916
3,018
2,967
2,875
2,909
2,765
2,820
2,427
2,400
2,417
3,949
4,224
4,088
3,993
4,148
3,609
3,990
3,262
3,075
3,359
12,208
12,964
14,055
14,766
14,172
12,994
13,806
15,178
15,829
15,726
23,301
22,749
20,687
21,313
21,743
23,468
24,181
25,042
27,736
30,105
2,756
2,362
1,758
1,852
2,396
2,428
2,150
2,166
2,210
2,617
46,131
45,317
43,554
44,799
45,368
45,263
46,947
48,075
51,250
54,225
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Rice
2,318
2,220
2,121
2,022
1,924
1,825
1,726
1,627
1,529
1,430
Bean
3,245
3,131
3,016
2,902
2,788
2,674
2,559
2,445
2,331
2,217
Corn
15,659
15,874
15,993
16,080
16,188
16,303
16,412
16,520
16,630
16,739
Soybean
31,598
32,764
33,785
34,751
35,697
36,633
37,565
38,496
39,427
40,357
Wheat
2,676
2,734
2,793
2,851
2,910
2,968
3,027
3,085
3,144
3,203
Total
55,495
56,722
57,708
58,606
59,506
60,402
61,289
62,174
63,060
63,945
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
14
b. Cotton lint
Cotton production is concentrated in the states of Mato Grosso,
Goiás and Bahia, which account for in 2013/14 90.7% of the country’s
production. Mato Grosso has the lead with 56.2% of the national
production been folloed by state of Bahia, with 29.8% of the Brazilian
production, and Goiás, with 4.9%.
MATO GROSSO
COTTON
LINT
National Production
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
1,672.3
BAHIA
29.8
56.2
%
4.8
GOIÁS
100.0
Major producing states
MT
939.4
56.2
BA
498.3
29.8
GO
79.9
Total
1,517.6
4.8
90.7
Source: Conab - survey june/2014
The projections for cotton lint production indicate 1.67 million tons in
2013/2014 and 2.35 million tons in 2023/24. This expansion corresponds
to a growth rate of 3.1% per year over the projection period and an
increase of 40.5% in production. Some analysts noted that the projected
production is quite high. What has been argued is that with the emergence
of new technologies is possible to obtain higher yields. However, what we
have checked is that the research has reached a stage where progress in
productivity levels is proving slow or stagnant. It was also observed that
15
the projection for 2014/15, 2,143 thousand tons may not occur and that
the tendency is to fall short, close to 2013/14 production of 2013/14, 1,672
thousand tons of cotton lint.
The consumption of this product in Brazil should grow at an annual
rate lower than 1.0% in the next ten years, reaching a total of 939 thousand
tons consumed in 2023/24. Exports are also forecast strong growth,
55.4% between 2013/14 a 2023/24
The report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA, 2014)
indicates that Brazilian exports between 2013/14 and 2023/24 will more
than double, with the country that should increase its exports in the next
10 years. Also according to this source, in a few years Brazil will overtake
Central Asia as the third largest source of cotton for export. Brazil has
exported to large number of countries, but the main importers in 2013
were South Korea, Indonesia, China, Argentina and Vietnam.
16
Table 4 –Production, Consumption and Export of Cotton Lint (thousand tons)
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
Consumption
Exports
Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit.
1,672
2,143
1,900
1,719
2,099
2,271
2,072
2,135
2,411
2,426
2,350
2,517
2,322
2,148
2,558
2,813
2,622
2,689
3,004
3,051
2,981
900
904
908
912
916
920
924
928
932
936
939
1,000
1,044
1,078
1,108
1,134
1,159
1,182
1,203
1,223
1,243
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with Conab information.
* Models used: Production- Space states. Consumption and exports – PRP
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
40.5%
Consumption
4.4%
Exports
55.4%
575
607
639
671
702
734
766
798
830
862
893
923
1,085
1,218
1,334
1,440
1,540
1,634
1,723
1,809
1,892
17
Fig. 3 – Production, Consumption and Exports of Cotton Lint
Produc4on Consump4on 2,500 893 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 575 2018/19 0 939 2017/18 500 900 2016/17 1,000 2,350 2015/16 1,500 1,672 2014/15 2,000 2013/14 thousand tons 3,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
c.
Rice
Although the rice is a common culture in most of the country,
most of the production occurs in 5 states - Rio Grande do Sul, with
predominantly irrigated rice concentrates 65.8% of production in 2013/14,
Santa Catarina , 8.7% of production, Mato Grosso, 5.2%, Maranhão,5.4 %
and Tocantins ,4.4% of national production. In the Northeast, especially
in the state of Ceará rice is irrigated and concentrated on irrigation
projects. A small amount is also produced in the states crossed bythe
São Francisco river pass, as Bahia, Sergipe, Alagoas and Pernambuco
and these areas also receive irrigation.
18
MARANHÃO
5.4
4.4
MATO GROSSO
RICE
National Production
TOCANTINS
5.2
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
%
12,250.7
100.0
RS
8.059.0
65.8
SC
1.067.2
8.7
MA
658.4
5.4
MT
639.5
5.2
TO
543.7
4.4
Total
10,967.8
8.7
SANTA
CATARINA
65.8
RIO GRANDE
DO SUL
89.5
The projected production for 2023/24 is 13.6 million tons, and
consumption of 12.2 million tons. We projected to increase 11.3% in
rice production over the next 10 years. This increased production is
expected to occur mainly through the growth of irrigated areas. The
projected increase in production is apparently low, but it is equivalent
to the projection of consumption over the next 10 years.
The relative stabilization of the projected consumption of rice is
consistent with the data supply Conab in recent years, around 12 million
tons in 2013/14 (Conab, 2014).
The estimates for the projection of rice planted area show that
the area reduction will occur in the coming years. According to the
projections it may fall of 2.4 million hectares in 2013/14 to 1.40 million
hectares in 2023/24. According Conab technicians consulted, the area
reduction is not likely to occur. The same is shared by researchers at
19
Embrapa Rice and Beans. In Rio Grande do Sul, which is now at 1.0 million
hectares should remain in that number or even decrease because rice
has had to compete with soybean and corn.
The new Brazilian Forest Code limits the incorporation of new
areas and the opportunity for Highlands Rice for years to come is in the
crop rotation, renovation, rehabilitation or renovation of degraded or
even livestock grazing in the transition to agriculture (Santiago, Carlo .
Embrapa, 2013).
The productivity should be the main variable in the behavior of the
product in the coming years. The projection indicates a productivity of
5.5 tonnes per hectare, about 300 kg more than the current productivity
of 5.2 tonnes per hectare. But rice is concentrated in areas of Rio Grande
do Sul where the current yield is 7.5 tons per hectare (Conab, 2014).
The consumption of rice in the coming years is expected to grow
at 0.2% per year. According to technicians of Embrapa, the projected
consumption seems appropriate to the current reality, even if the
calculations of apparent per capita consumption have shown declines in
recent years. To change this long-term trend, only if Brazil can develop
new ways to use and consumption of rice (made from grains of rice
products, which depends on R & D and, especially industry, became
interested in the subject, which did not can be seen today).
20
Table 5 –Production, Consumption and Rice Imports
(thousand tons)
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
Projection
12,251
12,703
12,807
12,910
13,014
13,118
13,222
13,326
13,429
13,533
13,637
Up limit.
15,285
16,459
17,383
18,179
18,892
19,547
20,158
20,734
21,280
21,803
Consumption
Projection
12,000
12,023
12,047
12,070
12,094
12,117
12,141
12,164
12,188
12,211
12,235
Up limit.
12,557
12,801
12,994
13,161
13,310
13,447
13,575
13,696
13,811
13,921
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information
* Models used: Production, Consumption and Imports, PRP
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
8.2%
11.3%
Consumption
2.0%
Imports
-32.9%
Imports
Projection
1,000
967
934
901
868
836
803
770
737
704
671
Up limit.
1,769
2,069
2,291
2,473
2,629
2,768
2,892
3,006
3,111
3,208
21
Fig. 4 - Production, Consumption and Rice Imports
Produc4on Consump4on Imports 16,000 13,637 12,251 12,000 10,000 12,235 12,000 8,000 6,000 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 671
2016/17 0 1,000 2015/16 2,000 2014/15 4,000 2013/14 thousand tons 14,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
d.
Bean
The geographical distribution of the main producers of beans in
the country can be seen on the map. The product is fairly distributed
across several states, although the main are Paraná, Minas Gerais and
Mato Grosso, which currently produce 74.9% of national production.
Such as rice, beans are part of the basic diet of Brazilians. It is the
product that more has the production , a trend that should continue in
the next years production. Imports are always to fill a small gap between
production and consumption (Santiago, C. Embrapa, 2013, and Conab,
2014).
22
CEARÁ
5.2
MATO GROSSO
BEAN
National Production
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
3,713.9
BAHIA
8.1
15.2
%
6.9
GOIÁS
16.0
MINAS
GERAIS
100.0
PR
871.2
23.5
MG
596.0
16.0
MT
563.5
15.2
BA
301.3
8.1
GO
255.4
6.9
CE
194.8
5.2
Total
2,782.2
74.9
23.5
PARANÁ
23
According to technicians of Embrapa Rice and Beans, each year
increases the discussions on production focused exclusively on the
domestic market.There are some varieties of beans that can be used for
export. If this new opportunity consolidates the projection of production
will have to be adjusted upward.
The variation designed for consumption is 3.6%, which is higher
than the production variation. Annual average consumption has been
3.5 million tonnes, requiring small amounts of imports. If confirmed
projections of production, should be no need to import beans in the
coming years. Over the past five years, Brazil has imported annually
between 180 000 and 300 000 tonnes of beans (Conab, 2014).
The opinions of Conab and Embrapa technicians is that there
may be major changes in the beans in the coming years. Productivity
is expected to increase from current levels as producers of soybeans
and corn are producing beans destined for export to China, India and
some African countries. The Northeast, although a large producer of this
product has imported beans from other states in periods of drought.
Mato Grosso has produced beans for export.
Some states such as São Paulo and Minas Gerais has been having
problems with regards to pests and diseases that attack crops of this
product and so far have struggled to adequately control these attacks.
24
Table 6 – Production, Consumption and Bean Imports
(thousand tons)
Year
Production
Consumption
Imports
2013/14
3,714
-
3,450
-
300
-
2014/15
3,179
3,835
3,463
3,897
307
436
2015/16
2,928
3,644
3,475
4,090
314
497
2016/17
3,268
3,990
3,488
4,240
322
545
2017/18
3,227
4,066
3,500
4,369
329
587
2018/19
3,036
3,949
3,513
4,484
336
625
2019/20
3,164
4,096
3,525
4,589
343
659
2020/21
3,205
4,193
3,538
4,687
350
692
2021/22
3,099
4,149
3,550
4,779
358
723
2022/23
3,129
4,209
3,563
4,866
365
752
2023/24
3,173
4,292
3,575
4,949
372
780
*Models used: To Production, ARMA Models , to Consumption and Imports, PRP
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
-14.6%
Consumption 3.6%
Imports
24.0%
25
Fig. 5 – Production, Consumption and Bean Imports
Produc4on 4,000 Consump4on Imports 3,714 3,575 3,000 3,450 3,173 2,500 2,000 1,500 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 0 372 300 2015/16 500 2014/15 1,000 2013/14 thousand tons 3,500 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
e.
Corn
The national maize production in the country is relatively sparse.
The main producing states, Mato Grosso, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Goiás,
Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul should answer in 2013/14
by 70.0% of national production. But the major producing regions are
South, the with 31.5% of the national production and Midwest with 42.0%.
In South leadership is of Paraná, and in the Midwest, Mato Grosso. These
are currently the main producers of corn in the country. But Minas Gerais,
Goias and Rio Grande do Sul Minas also account for an important part of
national production as shown on the map
26
BAHIA
MATO GROSSO
CORN
National Production
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
77,887.1
4.2
21.6
%
9.6
8.9
GOIÁS
100.0
MT
16,839.3
21.6
PR
15,295.4
19.6
MS
7,530.5
9.7
MG
6,956.5
8.9
GO
7,489.2
9.6
RS
5,773.7
7.4
SP
3,699.7
4.8
SC
3,485.0
4.5
BA
3,283.0
4.2
Total
70,352.3
MATO GROSSO
DO SUL
MINAS
GERAIS
9.7
PARANÁ
4.8
19.6
SÃO PAULO
4.5
7.4
SANTA
CATARINA
RIO GRANDE
DO SUL
90.3
The forecast for corn production in Brazil for 2013/14 is estimated at
77.9 million tonnes (Conab, 2014). For 2014/15 the projected production
is between 80.7 and 93.9 million tons as the upper limit of the projection.
But the tendency is the production lie nearest the projection. For
2023/24 production is projected 103.1 million tons.
As is well known, in Paraná and Mato Grosso, the biggest producers,
soybean areas release space for planting corn. In Mato Grosso it is usual
to plant soybeans around 15 September and harvest in January to then
start the second maize crop. The limit for this planting is February
because the risk of loss due the dry season are great if this period is
exceeded.
The corn area will increase by 6.4% between 2013/14 and 2023/24,
from 15.7 million hectares in 2013/14 to 16.7 million, reaching 22,1 million
27
hectares in 2023/24. There will be no need for new areas to expand this
activity as soybean areas release the majority of the areas required by
corn. The increase in projected area 6.4% is below the growing rate of
the past 10 years, that was 25.5%. But the corn had in recent years high
productivity gains resulting in less need for additional areas.
The domestic consumption of corn in 2013/14 represents 69.0 % of
production should decrease to 62.2 %. Corn exports must pass 21 million
tons in 2013/14 to 33.7 million tons in 2023/24. To maintain domestic
consumption projected of 64.0 million tons and ensure a reasonable
volume level of ending stocks and exports projected, the projected
production shoult be of 103.0 million tons, sufficient to meet the demand
in 2024. According to technicians working with this culture area should
increase more than is being projected and perhaps get closer to its
upper limit of growth (See Figure 8)
28
Table 7 – Production Consumption and Corn Export
(thousand tons)
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
Consumption
Exports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
77,887
80,717
83,462
86,773
88,118
91,516
93,193
96,528
98,138
101,497
103,121
-
53,818
54,876
55,868
56,868
57,899
58,936
59,967
61,000
62,034
63,068
64,102
-
93,896
100,811
107,583
110,940
117,488
120,947
126,846
129,980
135,617
138,603
56,652
58,892
60,927
62,859
64,675
66,396
68,055
69,665
71,234
72,770
21,000
22,806
25,001
25,910
26,790
28,018
29,192
30,298
31,425
32,565
33,698
30,264
35,117
37,144
39,264
41,748
44,016
46,121
48,201
50,247
52,237
* Models used: To production, Consumption and Exports, State – Space Models.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
32.4%
Consumption
19.1%
Exports
60.5%
-
29
Fig. 6 – Corn Production
Projec4on Up limit. 160,000 138,603 thousand tons 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 103,121 77,887 40,000 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 20,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 7 – Corn Consumption
Up limit. 72,770 64,102 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 53,818 2014/15 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2013/14 thousand tons Projec4on 30
Fig. 8 – Planted Area of Corn
Up limit. ProjecAons 16,739 15,726 Projection Variation(%)
20013/14 a 2023/24
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 6,4
40,8%
6,4 to
a 40,8%
2014/15 2013/14 thousand tons 22,149 31
f. Wheat
Wheat production in the country is concentrated in the South,
and Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are the major producers. In 2013/14
harvest, the forecast indicates that Paraná are responsible for 51.9% of the
country’s production and Rio Grande do Sul by 40.4%. The participation
of other states, is of the order of 7.7%. This participation is distributed
between Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul.
WHEAT
National Production
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
7,373.1
%
100,0
RS
2,978.9
40.4
PR
3,824.6
51.9
Total
6,803.5
92.3
51.9
PARANÁ
40.4
RIO GRANDE
DO SUL
Wheat production in 2013/14 crop is being estimated by Conab
in 7.4 million tons; this is the largest crop that Brazil already had. The
projected production for 2023/24 is 10.0 million tons, and consumption
of 14.3 million tons in the same year. The domestic consumption of
wheat in the country is expected to grow 17.4% between 2013/14 and
2023/2024.
32
The domestic supply will require imports of 5.3 million tonnes in
2023/24. In recent years, imports has been set between 5.8 and 7.0
million tons, and the most frequent import volume has been 6 million
tonnes with an outflow in nearly 2.4 billion dollars in 2013.
Although the increase in wheat production in coming years by more
than 30%, Brazil should remain as one of the world’s largest importer.
The USDA report estimated Brazilian wheat imports of 8 million tons in
2023/24 (USDA, 2014).
Table 8 – Production, Consumption and Imports of
Wheat (thousand tons)
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
Consumption
Imports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
7,373
7,635
7,897
8,158
8,420
8,682
8,944
9,205
9,467
9,729
9,991
-
12,192
12,405
12,617
12,830
13,042
13,255
13,468
13,680
13,893
14,105
14,318
-
5,500
5,478
5,456
5,433
5,411
5,389
5,367
5,345
5,322
5,300
5,278
7,201
7,893
8,418
8,858
9,243
9,588
9,904
10,197
10,470
10,728
10,519
11,975
13,154
14,188
15,131
16,008
16,836
17,625
18,381
19,111
13,443
14,086
14,628
15,119
15,577
16,011
16,428
16,830
17,221
17,602
-
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information.
* Models used: To Production and Consiumptiion , State – Space model, and to Export, PRP model.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
35.5%
Consumption
17.4%
Imports
-4.0%
33
Fig. 9 - Production, Consumption and Import of Wheat
Produc4on Consump4on Imports 16,000 14,318 12,192 12,000 10,000 8,000 7,373 9,991 6,000 4,000 5,500 5,278 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 2,000 2023/24 thousand tons 14,000 34
g. Soybean Complex
Soybean
Soybean production expected in the country in 2013/14 is 86.1
million tons Soybean production in Brazil is led by the states of Mato
Grosso, with 31.4% of national production; Paraná with 17.1%, Rio Grande
do Sul with 14.8%, and Goiás, 10.0%. But, as shown on the map, soybean
production is also evolving into new areas in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí
and Bahia, which in 2013/14 accounted for 10.1% of Brazilian production
which corresponds to a production of 8.7 million tons of soybean. This
is a region located in the center northeast of the country, which has
shown strong potential for grain production, called Matopiba. Despite
its deficiencies infrastructure, still attractive price land, the climate,
the possibility of deploying large areas and favorable relief, have been
several factors that have motivated investments in the region.
MATO GROSSO
SOYBEAN
National Production
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
86,052.2
3.8
%
10.0
Goiás
100.0
MATO GROSSO
DO SUL
MT
27,001.6
31.4
PR
14,740.8
17.1
RS
12,734.3
14.8
GO
8,636.6
10.0
MS
6,148.0
7.1
BA
3,229.2
3.8
Total
72,490.5
84.2
BAHIA
31.4
7.1
PARANÁ
17.1
14.8
RIO GRANDE
DO SUL
35
The projection of soybeans for 2023/24 is 117.8 million tonnes. This
number represents an increase of 36.9% over the production of 2013/14.
But it is a percentage that is lower than the growth recorded in the last
10 years in Brazil, which was 64.5% (Conab, 2014).
Consumption projections indicate that there must be a large
increase in demand for soybean in the international and domestic market.
In this market, besides the demand for animal feed, is expected a strong
increase in consumption of soybean for bio diesel production, estimated
in 2014 by ABIOVE between 10.4 and 12 million tons. This variation
depends on the scenario regarding the participation of soybean oil for
biodiesel production (ABIOVE matching 05.19.14).
Domestic consumption of soybean is expected to reach 50.4
million tonnes by the end of the projection. Consumption is projected to
increase 25.8% by 2023/24. This estimate is close to the growth observed
in recent years by Conab of 23.0% within 6 years. There should be an
additional consumption of soybean in relation to 2013/14 of around 10.0
million tonnes. As is well known, soybean is an essential component in
the manufacture of animal feeds and is gaining importance in human
nutrition.
The soybean area should increase 10.3 million hectares over the
next 10 years, arriving in 2024 to 40.4 million hectares. It is a crop that
will more expand area over the next decade. It represents an increase of
34.1% over the area with soybeans in 2013/14.
In the new areas of the Center Northeast of Brazil, comprising the
region of Matopiba, the soybean area should expand greatly according
to Conab technicians. This information goes in the same direction as the
results obtained in this work. In the present work, the area of grains in
this region should expand by 16.3% over the next 10 years. This equates
to reach the region area of 8.4 million hectares, which at its upper limit
can reach 10.9 million hectares.
In Paraná state, area can grow in the coming years taking areas of
other cultures. In Mato Grosso expansion should occur over degraded
pastures and new areas, but mostly the first areas. But the trend in Brazil
is that the expansion of the area occurs mainly on natural pasture lands.
Exports of soybeans designed for 2023/2024 is 65.2 million tonnes,
Representing an increase of 19.9 million tonnes for the quantity exported
by Brazil in 2013/14.
36
The expected change in 2024 relative to 2013/14 is an increase in
volume of soybeans exports in the order of 44.0% . The soybean export
projections in this report are very similar to USDA projections, released
in February this year. They design 66.5 million of exports for soybeans
at the end of the next decade. This estimate is almost the same as that
of this report, 65.2 million tons in 2024.
37
Table 9 – Production, Consumption and Soybean
Export (thousand tons)
Year
Production
Consumption
Exports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
2013/14
86,052
-
40,080
-
45,297
-
2014/15
89,831
98,215
41,233
45,698
47,292
52,768
2015/16
93,254
103,825
42,358
47,988
49,286
57,032
2016/17
96,377
108,549
43,391
49,739
51,281
60,767
2017/18
99,479
113,376
44,401
51,612
53,276
64,229
2018/19
102,555
117,921
45,414
53,329
55,270
67,517
2019/20
105,606
122,309
46,417
54,969
57,265
70,680
2020/21
108,660
126,624
47,420
56,583
59,260
73,750
2021/22
111,712
130,846
48,423
58,152
61,254
76,745
2022/23
114,761
134,999
49,425
59,688
63,249
79,679
2023/24
117,811
139,097
50,427
61,200
65,244
82,563
* Models used: To Production and Consiumptiion , State – Space model, and to Export, PRP model.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
36.9%
Consumption
25.8%
Exports
44.0%
38
Fig. 10 – Soybean Production
Projec4on Up limit. 160,000 139,097 thousand tons 140,000 120,000 117,811 100,000 80,000 60,000 86,052 40,000 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 20,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 11 – Soybean Consumption
Projec4on Up limit. 70,000 61,200 thousand tons 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 50,427 40,080 20,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 10,000 39
Fig. 12 – Soybean Export
Up limit. 82,563 65,244 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 45,297 2014/15 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2013/14 thousand tons Projec4on Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
The expansion of soybean production in the country will give by
the combination of area expansion and productivity. As production
increases planned over the next 10 years is 36.9%, the expansion of the
area is 34.1%. In recent years soybean productivity yield has remained
stable at 2.7 tons per hectare, and that number is projected to be 3.0
tonnes per hectare in the next 10 years.
Soybean should expand through a combination of frontier
expansion in regions where there is still available land, pasture land
occupation and substituting orther crops where there is no land
available for incorporation. But the trend in Brazil is that the expansion
occurs mainly on natural pasture lands.
Figure 13 illustrates the projected area expansion in sugar cane and
soybean, which are two activities that compete for the area in Brazil.
Together these two activities in the coming years should presentan
expansion area of 12.6 million hectares, 10.3 million hectares of soybean
and 2.3 million hectares of cane sugar.
The other crops should have little variation in area in the coming
40
years. However, it is estimated that expansion should occur in areas
of great productive potential, as areas of cerrado understood in what
is now called Matopiba for understanding land located in the states of
Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia. Mato Grosso will lose strenghts in
this process of expansion of new areas, mainly due to the price of land in
this state that are more than double the price of crop land in the states
of Matopiba (FGV-FGVDados). Because these new ventures regions
include areas of great extent, the price of land is a decisive factor.
Fig. 13 – Area of Soybean and Sugar Cane
Soybean Sugar cane** 30,105 Soybean- Variation - 34.1
34,1 %
%
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa *
Area with soybean and cane will grouth 12.6 million hectare
**refers to sugar - cane intended to production of alcohol and sugar.
2023/24 2022/23 11.123 -‐ 13.838 ,
,
2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 Sugar cane - Variation - 26.2
26,2 %
%
2015/16 2014/15 8,811 2013/14 thousand hectare 40.357 -‐ 51.915 ,
,
41
Meal and Soybean Oil
Meal and soybean oil showed moderate dynamism of production
in the coming years. The soybean meal production should increase by
25.1% and 25.9% oil. These percentages are slightly higher than what
has been observed in the last decade for both products. However,
consumption of meal will have stronger growth than soybean oil, 35.2%
and 23.1%, respectively.
Exports of meal should increase 15.6% between 2014 and 2024
and 18.4% oil. Exports are presented in the coming years more dynamic
domestic consumption in the case of soybean oil.
42
Table 10 – Production, Consumption and Soybean
Meal Export (thousand tons)
Year
Production
Consumption
Exports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
2013/14
28,105
-
14,100
-
13,579
-
2014/15
28,676
31,078
14,529
15,234
14,166
15,926
2015/16
30,079
33,173
15,046
16,085
14,389
17,103
2016/17
30,534
33,935
15,548
16,793
14,715
18,154
2017/18
31,041
34,918
16,019
17,463
14,783
18,821
2018/19
31,910
36,218
16,538
18,181
14,939
19,545
2019/20
32,562
37,158
17,049
18,851
15,128
20,230
2020/21
33,135
38,043
17,543
19,492
15,257
20,801
2021/22
33,856
39,082
18,050
20,143
15,394
21,358
2022/23
34,539
40,031
18,559
20,783
15,557
21,912
2023/24
35,168
40,919
19,061
21,407
15,701
22,422
* Models used: To Production, Consumption and Export, Space – state models.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
25.1%
Consumption
35.2%
Exports
15.6%
43
Table 11 – Production, Consumption and Soybean Oil
Export (thousand tons)
Year
Production
Consumption
Exports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
2013/14
7,118
-
5,500
-
1,374
-
2014/15
7,353
8,125
5,566
5,911
1,530
2,119
2015/16
7,510
8,481
5,642
6,225
1,562
2,422
2016/17
7,706
8,827
5,755
6,564
1,598
2,686
2017/18
7,886
9,164
5,880
6,913
1,622
2,945
2018/19
8,066
9,472
6,016
7,258
1,631
3,164
2019/20
8,247
9,773
6,161
7,597
1,637
3,369
2020/21
8,425
10,064
6,309
7,928
1,637
3,556
2021/22
8,604
10,347
6,461
8,250
1,635
3,727
2022/23
8,783
10,624
6,616
8,563
1,631
3,887
2023/24
8,961
10,896
6,772
8,869
1,626
4,036
* Models Used: To Production, Consumption and Exports, State- Space Models.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
25.9%
Consumption
23.1%
Exports
18.4%
44
Fig. 14 – Production, Consumption and Export of Soybean Meal
Produc4on Consump4on Exports 40,000 28,105 35,168 25,000 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 0 15,701 13,579 2017/18 5,000 14,100 2016/17 10,000 19,061 2015/16 15,000 2014/15 20,000 2023/24 30,000 2013/14 thousand tons 35,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 15 – Production, Consumption and Exports of
Soybean Oil
Consump4on Exports 8,961 7,118 6,772 5,500 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2023/24 1,626 1,374 2014/15 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2013/14 thousand tons Produc4on 45
The domestic consumption of soybean oil forecast for 2023/24
is estimated at 6.8 million tons. Represents around 75.6% of projected
production. Most of the oil is intended for human consumption and
another part has been used to produce Biodiesel. According to ABIOVE
in 2014, the average use of soybean oil for biodiesel should be between
2.0 and 2.3 million tons. This represents between 28.0 and 32.3% of
soybean oil in 2013/14 harvest.
For soybean meal, in the next decade, about 54.0% should be
directed to domestic consumption, and 44.6% for exports.
We analyzed the data sent by ABIOVE (2014), at our request, in
the form of comments to these projections, and it generally converge
toward the results presented in this report.
46
h. Coffee
COFFEE
Produção Nacional
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
2,818.2
%
53.6
100.0
MINAS
GERAIS
ESPIRITO
SANTO
26.0
MG
1,511.8
53.6
ES
733.3
26.0
Total
2,245.1
79.7
Source: IBGE - survey - june/2014
Coffee production has been showing unusual behavior in2014.
Though a period called the High, the expected production this year
is supposed to be lower than last year. This crop has a cycle called “
bienalidade “ where years there has been a high production and low
production the next. Due to weather problems that occurred earlier this
year affecting the main producing regions, the harvest expected in 2014
should be equal to or less than last year. Estimates for 2014 indicate a
harvest of 46.9 million 60-kg bags, while last year was 49.2 million bags
(DCAF-CONAB-ABIC-MDI / SECEX-OIC-CEPEA / ESALQ, BM & F, 2014 )
47
The projections show that the related production in 2023/24
should rise 30.6% compared to 2013/14. This change is equivalent to an
annual growth rate of 2.5%. Consumption is estimated to grow 28.9% by
2023/24, the result of an annual growth rate of 2.4%. The consumption
in Brazil has grown to an average annual rate of 4.8% according to the
International Coffee Organization, OIC, while the world average has
been 2.7% per year. The latest estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture
indicate an average annual rate of per capita consumption in Brazil of
5.7% per year in the period 2003-2014 (MAPA / DCAF, ABIC, Conab,
2014).
Coffee exports are projected for 2023/24 at 40.0 million bags of 60
kg. This projected volume represents an increase of 24.0% compared to
the exports of 2013/14, representing an average annual rate of 2.2%. It is
expected that the country will continue as the world’s largest producer
and leading exporter as well as keep the usual buyers and valued partners
in 129 countries in 2013. U.S., Germany, Japan and Italy imported 62.7%
of the volume exported by Brazil in 2013.
48
Table 12 – Production, Consumption and Exports of
Coffee (million bags)
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
47
48
51
53
54
55
56
58
59
60
61
48
62
67
68
72
73
76
77
80
82
Consumption
20
21
21
22
22
23
24
24
25
25
26
21
22
23
24
24
25
26
27
27
28
Exports
32
33
33
34
35
36
37
37
38
39
40
39
41
42
44
45
47
48
50
51
52
Source: AGE/Mapa e and SGE/Embrapa with Mapa/SPAE/DCAF and CONAB Information
* Models Used: To production, consumption and Exports, State- Space Models.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
30.6%
Consumption
28.9%
Exports
24.0%
i.Milk
Milk was considered a product that has high growth potential.
The production is expected to grow at an annual rate between 2.6%
and 3.4%. This corresponds to a production of 44.7 billion liters of raw
milk at the end of the period of the projections, 29.8% higher than the
production year 2013/14.
49
According to technicians of Embrapa Dairy Cattle, the projected
growth rates for production should be slightly above the projected in
this report. According to them the milk production in Brazil rose more
than 4.0% per year in recent years.
Tabela 13 - Production, Consumption and Exports of
Milk (million liters)
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
Consumption
Imports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
34,408
36,322
36,473
38,377
38,523
40,425
40,569
42,470
42,613
44,514
44,657
-
36,298
37,310
38,302
39,290
40,278
41,265
42,253
43,240
44,228
45,215
46,203
-
1,057
1,047
1,037
1,028
1,018
1,008
999
989
979
970
960
37,897
38,885
41,016
41,826
43,927
44,623
46,696
47,315
49,368
49,933
40,069
41,810
43,420
44,948
46,419
47,849
49,246
50,617
51,967
53,297
Exports
Up limit. Projection
-
2,820
3,209
3,535
3,821
4,079
4,316
4,535
4,740
4,934
5,118
138
142
147
152
157
161
166
171
176
180
185
Up limit.
657
777
879
970
1,052
1,128
1,200
1,267
1,330
1,391
Source: AGE/Mapa e and SGE/Embrapa with IBGE/MDIC/Embrapa Gado de Leite information.
* Models used: To Production and Consumption, ARMA model, to Imports and Exports, PRP models.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
29.8%
Consumption
27.3%
Imports
-9.2%
Exports
34.7%
50
Fig. 16 – Milk Production
Projec4on Up limit. thousand tons 60,000 49,933 50,000 40,000 30,000 44,657 34,408 20,000 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 10,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 17 – Production and Consumption of Milk.
Produc4on Consump4on 46,203 40,000 30,000 36,298 44,657 34,408 20,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 0 2014/15 10,000 2013/14 thousand tons 50,000 51
Fig. 18 – Import and Export of Milk
Imports Exports 1,000 1,057 960 800 600 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 185 2016/17 0 138 2015/16 200 2014/15 400 2013/14 thousand tons 1,200 52
Consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate between 2.4
and 3.3%, thus following the production of the country, but putting
the consuption at a level slightly above the national production, it will
require some import.
j. Sugar
The estimates obtained by AGE and SGE for Brazilian sugar
production indicate an average annual growth rate of 3.3% in the
2013/2014 to 2023/2024 period. This rate should lead to a production
of 52.9 million tons in 2024. Such production corresponds to an increase
of 39.7% compared to 2013/14. These projections may be affected if the
current situation is maintened where the prospects of the sugar and
alcohol sector are not favorable.
Investments have not been made in new units, several production
units have paralyzed its activities over the past 3 seasons and many
companies are indebted (Mapa / Agroenergia, 2014).
53
Table14 – Production, Consumption and Sugar Exports
(thousand tons)
Year
Production
Consumption
Exports
2013/14
37,878
-
12,233
-
27,154
-
2014/15
40,330
44,074
12,261
13,640
27,824
32,552
2015/16
41,265
45,774
12,694
14,300
29,207
34,896
2016/17
42,937
48,304
12,963
14,881
30,352
37,128
2017/18
44,264
50,305
13,299
15,442
31,577
39,208
2018/19
45,749
52,415
13,607
15,970
32,775
41,198
2019/20
47,163
54,394
13,927
16,485
33,982
43,122
2020/21
48,608
56,365
14,242
16,983
35,186
44,993
2021/22
50,040
58,288
14,559
17,471
36,391
46,821
2022/23
51,478
60,190
14,875
17,949
37,596
48,614
2023/24
52,913
62,066
15,192
18,419
38,801
50,378
-
-
-
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with Mapa /SPAE/DCAA; Mapa /SRI and CONAB. information
* Models used: To Production and Exports, Space – State model, and to Consumption, ARMA model.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
39.7%
Consumption
24.2%
Exports
42.9%
The projected rates for exports and domestic consumption for the
next 10 years are, respectively, 3.7% and 2.3% per year. For exports, the
forecast for 2023/2024 is a volume of 38.8 million tonnes.
54
Fig. 19 – Production, Consumption and Sugar Exports
Produc4on Consump4on Exports thousand tons 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 52,913 37,878 38.801
27,154 15,192 12,233 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 10,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 20 – Sugar Production
Projec4on Up limit. 70,000 62,066 thousand tons 60,000 50,000 52,913 40,000 30,000 37,878 20,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 10,000 55
Fig. 21 – Sugar Exports
Projec4on Up limit. thousand tons 60,000 50,378 50,000 40,000 38,801 30,000 20,000 27,154 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 10,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
k.
Orange and Orange Juice
The orange production should increase from 16.3 million tons in
2013/14 crop to 17.5 million tonnes in 2023/24. This variation corresponds
to an annual growth rate of 0.7%.
The area planted with orange should be reduced in the coming
years. It should move from the current 717 thousand hectares hectares
to 627 thousand. This indicates an annual reduction in the growth rate
of 1.3% per year.
Brazil is expected to export 2.6 million tonnes of orange juice at
the end of the projection period. But that number may reach, at its
upper limit, to 3.2 million tonnes of juice. Trade restrictions in the form
of barriers to trade are the main limiting factor for the expansion of the
orange juice.
56
Table 15- Production of Orange and Exports of Orange
Juice (thousand tons)
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
Exports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
16,333
16,452
16,571
16,689
16,808
16,927
17,046
17,165
17,283
17,402
17,521
19,051
20,247
21,191
22,007
22,739
23,413
24,042
24,635
25,200
25,741
2,094
2,179
2,215
2,272
2,320
2,372
2,423
2,474
2,525
2,575
2,626
2,448
2,537
2,631
2,715
2,799
2,880
2,959
3,036
3,112
3,187
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with IBGE and SECEX/MDIC information
* Models used: To Production, PRP model, and to Exports, Space – States model.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
7.3%
Exports
25.4%
57
Fig. 22 – Orange Production and Orange Juice Export
Produc4on 16,333 16,000 17,521 12,000 8,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 0 2,626 2,094 2014/15 4,000 2013/14 thousand tons 20,000 Exports 58
i.
Meat
Before presenting the projections of meat, we seek to illustrate
the current distribution of cattle in Brazil, with respect to the number
of animals slaughtered in 2013. Slaughtered this year were 34.4 million
head across the country, and Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, São
Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Para and Rondonia, leading the slaughter,
with 72.0% of slaughters in the country.
PARÁ
7.1
6.7
BOVINES
National Production
TOCANTINS
MATO GROSSO
RONDÔNIA
Slaughtered
Animals
2013/14
(head)
%
34,411,857
100.0
17.0
5,837,857
17.0
MS
4,120,813
12.0
SP
3,548,939
10.3
GO
3,466,231
10.1
MG
3,032,618
8.8
PA
2,447,439
7.1
RO
2,289,653
6.7
RS
1,920,455
5.6
PR
1,424,743
4.1
BA
1,309,373
3.8
TO
1,195,180
3.5
30,593,301
88.9
Total
Source: IBGE - quarterly survey of slaughtered animals - march/2014
3.8
10.1
GOIÁS
MATO GROSSO
DO SUL
8.8
MINAS
GERAIS
12.0
10.3
MT
BAHIA
3.5
4.1
SÃO PAULO
5.6
RIO GRANDE
DO SUL
59
Projections of meat for Brazil show that this sector should present
strong growth in the coming years. Among meat, the projecting higher
growth rates of production in the period 2014-2024 are chicken, which is
expected to grow annually at 3.1%, and swine, whose projected growth
for this period is 2.8% per year. The beef production has a projected
growth of 1.9% per year, which also represents a relatively high value
because it can supply domestic consumption and exports.
The total meat production will increase from 26.0 million tons in
2014 to 33.8 million in 2024, an increase of 30.0%.
60
Table 16– Meat Production (thousand tons)
Year
BEEF
PORK
CHICKEN
2014
9,753
-
3,553
-
12,691
-
2015
9,762
10,799
3,666
4,067
13,081
14,122
2016
10,309
11,921
3,778
4,346
13,519
14,620
2017
10,632
12,573
3,891
4,586
13,972
15,571
2018
10,451
12,661
4,004
4,806
14,432
16,090
2019
10,589
13,091
4,116
5,013
14,894
16,931
2020
11,027
13,600
4,229
5,212
15,358
17,445
2021
11,105
13,699
4,342
5,403
15,822
18,225
2022
11,159
13,799
4,454
5,589
16,286
18,734
2023
11,615
14,314
4,567
5,771
16,751
19,474
2024
11,975
14,707
4,680
5,948
17,216
19,979
Source:a AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB. information
* Models used: To Beef, ARMA model, to Pork, PRP models and to Chicken, State - Space.
Variation %
2014 to 2024
Beef
22.8%
Pork
31.7%
Chicken
35.7%
61
Fig. 23- Beef Production
Up limit. 14,707 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2024 11,975 9,753 2015 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2014 thousand tons Projec3on Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 24 – Pork Production
2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 3,553 2015 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2014 thousand tons Projec3on 62
Fig. 25- Chicken Production
Projec3on Up limit. 19,979 20,000 15,000 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 0 12,691 2016 5,000 17,216 2015 10,000 2014 thousand tons 25,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Projections show the consumption preferences of Brazilian
consumers for chicken. The projected annual growth for the consumption
of chicken is 2.9% in the period 2014-2024. This is an increase of 33.1%
in consumption for the next 10 years. Pork takes second place in
consumption growth at an annual rate of 2.6% in the coming years. In
the lower level of growth is located if the projection of beef consumption
1.5% per year next ten years.
63
Table 17 – Meat Consumption (thousand tons)
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
BEEF
7,744
7,615
8,332
7,866
8,880
8,089
9,198
7,992
9,189
8,082
9,399
8,421
9,752
8,501
9,841
8,502
9,906
8,759
10,230
8,953
10,451
PORK
3,032
3,120
4,750
3,209
5,513
3,297
6,119
3,385
6,644
3,474
7,117
3,562
7,553
3,650
7,961
3,738
8,347
3,827
8,715
3,915
9,068
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB Information
* Models: To Beef, ARMA Model, Pork and Chicken, PRP
Variation %
2014 to 2024
Beef
15.6%
Pork
29.1%
Chicken
33.1%
CHICKEN
8,689
8,976
9,615
9,263
10,166
9,551
10,656
9,838
11,115
10,125
11,553
10,412
11,976
10,699
12,389
10,987
12,792
11,274
13,189
11,561
13,580
64
Fig. 26 – Meat Consumption
Beef Pork Chicken 14,000 thousand tons 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 11,561 8,689 8,953 7,744 3,915 3,032 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 0 2014 2,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Regarding exports, the projections indicate high growth rates
for the three types of meat analyzed. Estimates project a favorable
environment for Brazilian exports. The chicken and pork lead the annual
growth rates of exports in the coming years - the annual rate provided
for chicken is 3.8% and for pork 3.9%.
Exports of beef should be located on an annual average of 3.4%. Meat
exports has led to numerous countries. In 2013 the beef was destinated
to 143 countries, with the main Hong Kong; chicken was destinated for
144 countries, with Saudi Arabia the main buyer and finally the pork had
72 destination countries, whose main Russia. The expectation is that
these markets are increasingly consolidate so that the projections are
feasible.
65
Table 18 – Meat Export (thousand tons)
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
BEEF
PORK
POLTRY
2,068
2,143
2,223
2,305
2,388
2,471
2,555
2,638
2,722
2,805
2,889
2,515
2,861
3,165
3,435
3,682
3,910
4,125
4,330
4,526
4,715
534
559
584
609
634
659
684
709
734
759
784
700
783
853
916
974
1,029
1,082
1,133
1,182
1,230
*Models used: To Beef and Chicken meat, State – Space models, to Pork, PRP
Variation %
2014 to 2024
Beef
39.7%
Pork
46.9%
Poltry
44.5%
4,002
4,181
4,323
4,527
4,680
4,890
5,046
5,258
5,415
5,627
5,784
4,674
4,887
5,384
5,613
6,054
6,276
6,679
6,893
7,271
7,478
66
Fig. 27 – Beef Export
Up limit. 4,715 2,889 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2,068 2015 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2014 thousand tons Projec3on Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 28 – Export of Pork
Up limit. 1,230 784 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 534 2015 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2014 thousand tons Projec3on 67
Fig. 29 – Export of Chicken
Up limit. 7,478 5,784 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 4,002 2015 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2014 thousand tons Projec3on Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
m.
Pulp and Paper
Forest products represent the fourth rank in the value of exports
of brazilian agribusiness, below the soybean complex, meat and sugar
and alcohol complex. In 2013 the value of exports of forest products was
$ 9.64 billion, and pulp and paper accounted for 74.3% of export value
(Mapa / Agrostat, 2014). Pulp and paper and wood and articles thereof
comprise this segment of agribusiness.
68
Table 19 – Production, Consumption and Export of
Pulp (thousand tons)
Year
Production
Consumption
Exports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
2013/14
15,736
-
6,327
-
9,853
-
2014/15
16,173
17,106
6,392
6,862
10,240
11,233
2015/16
16,675
17,952
6,531
7,034
10,621
11,916
2016/17
17,183
18,681
6,654
7,224
11,022
12,527
2017/18
17,651
19,410
6,759
7,356
11,403
13,117
2018/19
18,156
20,116
6,889
7,531
11,794
13,694
2019/20
18,640
20,789
7,001
7,678
12,183
14,248
2020/21
19,128
21,459
7,120
7,829
12,569
14,794
2021/22
19,622
22,113
7,241
7,984
12,959
15,329
2022/23
20,108
22,755
7,356
8,129
13,347
15,855
2023/24
20,599
23,392
7,476
8,279
13,735
16,375
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with BRACELPA information.
*Models used: Production, Consumption amd Exports, Space – States model.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
30.9%
Consumption
18.2%
Exports
39.4%
69
Fig. 30 - Pulp Production
Projec4on Up limit. 23,392 thousand tons 25,000 20,000 15,000 20,599 15,736 10,000 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 0 2013/14 5,000 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
Fig. 31 - Production, Consumption and Pulp Export
Produc4on Consump4on Exports Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2023/24 7,476 6,327 2018/19 0 9,853 2017/18 5,000 13,735 2016/17 10,000 15,736 2015/16 15,000 20,599 2014/15 20,000 2013/14 thousand tons 25,000 70
Table 20 – Production, Consumption and Paper Export
(thousand tons)
Year
Production
Consumption
Exports
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
2013/14
10,759
-
10,125
-
1,937
-
2014/15
10,992
11,237
10,333
10,820
1,995
2,257
2015/16
11,267
11,565
10,598
11,243
2,055
2,470
2016/17
11,516
11,848
10,863
11,595
2,079
2,576
2017/18
11,776
12,136
11,102
11,923
2,122
2,712
2018/19
12,035
12,429
11,377
12,267
2,142
2,782
2019/20
12,289
12,704
11,601
12,562
2,190
2,897
2020/21
12,553
13,000
11,881
12,905
2,213
2,961
2021/22
12,805
13,269
12,102
13,188
2,261
3,068
2022/23
13,070
13,564
12,385
13,529
2,284
3,128
2023/24
13,320
13,830
12,605
13,805
2,332
3,229
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with BRACELPA Information
* Models used:To Production, Consumption and Export, State – Space Models.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
23.8%
Consumption
24.5%
Exports
20.4%
71
Fig. 32 – Paper Production
2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 10,759 2014/15 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2013/14 thousand tons Projec4on 72
Fig. 33 – Production, Consumption and Paper Export
Produc4on 14,000 10,000 8,000 Exports 13,320 10,759 12,605 10,125 6,000 2023/24 2022/23 2021/22 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 0 2,332 1,937 2015/16 2,000 2014/15 4,000 2013/14 thousand tons 12,000 Consump4on Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
With regard to the paper, to supply domestic consumption growth
of 2.2% annually over the next 10 years, and 1.8% of exports, it will be
necessary to expand production faster than the projected rate, which
is 2.2 % per year until 2023/2024. According to Bracelpa technicians
production and paper consumption have historically accompanied the
growth of GDP. Although the paper can find some demand problem,
the projected growth in this report for the production seems small. For
cellulose, the projection indicates that would be possible production can
meet the growth in domestic consumption and exports of the sector.
73
n. Tobacco
The inclusion of the projections of some variables related to
Tobacco is justified by the importance of the product in the Brazilian
trade balance and income formation in the producing regions.
Its production occurs mainly in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina
and Paraná. In 2014, these three states have planted an area of 392
thousand hectares, a total of 417 thousand hectares of land. In Northeast
Brazil, there is some production in Alagoas and Bahia . In 2013, tobacco
and its products have generated export revenues of $ 3.27 billion.
The projected production for 2023/2024 is 1,060 tons. The
projected area is 472 thousand hectares, obtained through an annual
growth of 1.2% from 2013/14 until the end of the projections
74
Table 21- Tobacco Production
Year
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Production
Projection
Up limit.
865
890
904
929
943
968
982
1,007
1,021
1,046
1,060
1,079
1,093
1,197
1,211
1,296
1,310
1,385
1,399
1,469
1,483
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with IBGE information
* Models used: To production, State - Space.
.
Variation %
2013/14 to 2023/24
Production
22.6%
75
o.Fruits
Among the fruits analyzed in this study, banana is the most
widespread throughout the country. But 67.8% of production is in the
states of São Paulo, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina, Ceará and
Pará. Apple has its production located in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa
Catarina and grape in Rio Grande do Sul, Pernambuco and Sao Paulo.
The fruits have been growing in importance in the country, both
domestically and internationally. In 2013, the export value of fresh fruit
was U.S. $ 878.0 million, slightly below the value exported in 2012, of $
910 million (Agrostat / Mapa, 2014). Grapes, mangoes and melons are
the fastest growing exports in terms of value. As can be seen in the
maps of location, banana is the most widespread in the country, while
apples and grapes have their more restricted to South and Northeast
regions of production.
76
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
APPLE
National Production
%
1,271,014
100.0
RS
687,448
54.1
SC
530,601
41.7
1,218,049
95.8
Total
41.7
SANTA
CATARINA
54.1
RIO GRANDE
DO SUL
Source: IBGE - Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - March / 2014
PERNAMBUCO
BAHIA
4.2
GRAPE
National Production
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
1,360.608
%
100.0
11.7
RS
759,942
55.9
PE
236,767
17.4
SP
158,781
11.7
PR
79,052
5.8
BA
56,944
4.2
SC
52,083
3.8
Total
1,343,569
98.7
PARANÁ
5.8
SÃO PAULO
3.8
55.9
SANTA
CATARINA
RIO GRANDE
DO SUL
17.4
77
CEARÁ
PARÁ
7.0
8.1
PERNAMBUCO
5.4
BAHIA
16.2
BANANA
National Production
Harvest Year
2013/2014
(Thousand tons)
7,146,788
10.7
%
MINAS
GERAIS
100.0
16.7
SP
1,191,547
16.7
BA
1,160,854
16.2
MG
764,030
10.7
SC
649,609
9.1
PA
576,154
8.1
CE
501,857
7.0
PB
389,337
5.4
PR
269,075
3.8
ES
262,711
3.7
5,765,174
80.7
Total
PARANÁ
3.8
9.1
ESPÍRITO
SANTO
3.7
SÃO PAULO
SANTA
CATARINA
Due to limited data, the projections were restricted to changing
production and planted are of grape, apple and banana area. Unlike the
orange area which is relatively significant, these fruits have much more
restricted areas, and, as is the case of the grape which are cultivated
under irrigation and high technological level. Among the three fruits,
bananas are the one with the largest area.
The projections of production until 2023/2024, show that the
largest expansion will occur in apple production, 2.6% growth per year,
followed by grapes, 1.9% per year for the banana, 0.9% per year . A joint
production of apples, grapes and bananas should represent 4.0 million
tons in 2023/24, representing an increase of 21.7% over 2014.
78
Table 22- Fruit Production (thousand tons)
Year
BANANAS (thousand
bunche)
APPLE
GRAPE
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
Projection
Up limit.
701
707
714
720
726
733
739
746
752
758
765
764
793
818
839
859
878
895
912
928
944
1,271
1,306
1,344
1,381
1,418
1,456
1,493
1,530
1,568
1,605
1,642
1,488
1,560
1,638
1,707
1,774
1,838
1,900
1,961
2,020
2,078
1,361
1,413
1,424
1,459
1,483
1,513
1,539
1,567
1,595
1,622
1,650
1,605
1,647
1,733
1,788
1,852
1,907
1,963
2,015
2,067
2,117
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with IBGE information.
* Models used: Banana, PRP and to Apple and Grapes, State Space model
Fig. 34- Fruit Production (thousand tons)
APPLE GRAPE 1,650 1,361 1,642 1,271 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Fonte: AGE/Mapa e SGE/Embrapa
2024 765 701 2015 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2014 thousand tons BANANAS (thousand bunche) 79
5. RESULTS OF REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional projections were made with the objective of identifying
possible trends of selected products in major producing regions, and
also show the predictions of a slightly more disaggregated. They are
divided into two parts: regional projections of consolidated areas, and
areas of recent expansion, located in central Brazil, and part of the
Northeast. They are: Rice in Rio Grande do Sul; Corn in Mato Grosso,
Paraná, Minas Gerais; Soybean in Mato Grosso, Rio Grande do Sul and
Paraná; Wheat, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul; and sugar cane in São
Paulo, Paraná, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais and Goiás. Was included, the
area and production projections for the states of Maranhão, Tocantins,
Piauí and Bahia, called MATOPIBA.
The projections of these regions were also made to some
municipalities in these localities, selected according to their importance
in the production of grains.
Regional projections were only for production and planted area
because there aren`t more detailed information such as for the national
projections.
80
Table 23 – Regional Projections - 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
Selected States
Production (Thousand tons)
RICE - Thousand Tons
2013/14
RS
2023/24
Planted Area (Thousand ha)
Thousand hectares
Var. %
2013/14
2023/24
8,434
10.540
25.0
1,114
1,178
Sugar cane - Thousand Tons Thousand hectares
Var. %
5.8
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
GO
69,307
96,918
39.8
859
1,195
39.1
MG
76,741
109,035
42.1
953
1,322
38.7
MT
19,153
25.080
30.9
280
383
36.7
49,227
65,742
33.5
658
878
404,680
504,406
Corn - Thousand Tons
24.6
PR
SP
5,046
6,395
Thousand hectares
33.4
26.7
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
MG
6,957
9,154
31.6
1,325
1,234
-6.9
MT
16,839
27,316
62.2
3.250
4,848
49.2
28.5
2,575
2,631
Thousand hectares
PR
15,295
19,652
Soybean - Thousand Tons
2.2
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
BA
3,229
4,388
35.9
1,313
1,789
36.2
MT
27,002
38,035
40.9
8,616
12,204
41.6
PR
14,741
19,756
34.0
5,019
6,527
30.0
RS
12,734
16,256
27.7
4.940
5,609
,
Wheat - Thousand Tons
Thousand hectares
13.6
PR
RS
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
3,825
5,137
30.3
1,323
1,497
13.1
26.1
1,103
1,341
Thousand hectares
2,979
3,755
Grapes - Thousand Tons
2013/14
RS
2023/24
760
922
Grains - Thousand Tons
MATOPIBA*
Var. %
21.3
2013/14
2023/24
50
56
Thousand hectares
21.6
Var. %
11.1
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
2013/14
2023/24
Var. %
18,623
22,607
21.4
7,259
8.440
16.3
* Located in the Center – Northeast of Brazil and formed by the states of Maranhão, Tocantins,
Piauí, Bahia.
81
Regional projections show that Rio Grande do Sul should continue
leading the production and expansion of rice in Brazil in the coming
years. The production of the state that is in 2013/2014, 65.8% of the
national rice production must increase production in the coming years
in 25.0% and 5.8% in area.
The production of sugar cane must present expansion in all states
considered. The greatest expansion of production must occur in Minas
Gerais, Goiás and Paraná. In these states sugar cane should expand
by reducing area of other crops and also in pastures. Sao Paulo, the
leader of national production, should have a production increase of
approximately 24.6% over the next decade. To meet this growing area in
the state should increase by 26.7% at the end of the period of projections.
Projections indicate that only in Minas Gerais production the increase
will occur by gains in productivity. In the other the expected growth in
production will be done mainly by the increase in area.
Mato Grosso should lead in the coming years the growth of corn
production. The projected increase for the next decade is 62.2%, while
the area is expected to increase 49.2%. The available information
indicates that increased corn production should occur primarily through
the second corn crop that has achieved amazing results
Corn must suffer in the coming years 6.9% decrease in the area in
Minas Gerais. It is possible that this should occur due to the expansion
of sugar cane in the state and also the soybean.
Mato Grosso and Bahia should lead the increase in soybean
production in the coming years, increasing by 40.9% and 35.9%,
respectively, soybean should increase production, without any reduction
of area in any of the analyzed states.
The projections show that the wheat production increases should
be similar in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, about 30.0% over the next
10 years and 26.1% for Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, respectively. No
reduction in wheat area is expected to occur, and the largest increase
should occur in Rio Grande do Sul
The region formed by the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and
Bahia, known as MATOPIBA has a different growth dynamics. Hence the
interest in presenting the results of the main projections. Its growth has
been extraordinary.
The latest survey of IBGE (2011) on the municipal GDP shows that
these municipalities have pulled the growth of the states where they are
located. Its growth has been much higher than the growth of the state
82
and national average.
These four states must reach a grain production of 22.6 million
tons over the next 10 years in a planted area of 8.4 million hectares
in 2023/2024 but which could reach 10.9 million hectares at its upper
bound to the end of the next decade.
Fig. 35 – Grains Projections - MaToPiBa
30,000 22,607 25,000 20,000 18,623 16,647 Produc0on (thousand tonnes) 15,000 10,000 7,259 5,000 0 8,440 7,245 Planted Area (thousand hectares) 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
The areas that have been settled in these states have some essential
features for modern agriculture. Are flat and extensive, potentially
productive soils, water availability, and climate conducive to long
days and high intensity of sunshine. The major limitation, however are
precarious logistics, especially inland transport, port, communication,
and some areas lack of financial services.
83
Table 24 – Projections of MATOPIBA (*) 2013/2014 to
2023/2024
Production (thousand tons)
Grains
2013/14 2023/24
18,623
22,607
Planted Area (thousand hectares)
Var. %
2013/14
2023/24
21.4
7,259
8,440
Soybean – Selected Municipalities- Thousand tons
Balsas - MA
464
682
Campos Lindos - TO
185
275
Uruçuí - PI
273
372
Barreiras - BA
353
363
1,532
3,767
829
1,200
Formosa do Rio Preto - BA
São Desidério - BA
46.9
48.9
36.3
2.9
145.8
44.7
Var. %
16.3
thousand hectares
150
217
58
85
99
147
127
149
309
466
264
275
45.0
48.5
48.1
17.3
50.9
4.1
* Located in the Center – Northeast of Brazil and formed by the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí,
Bahia.
Balsas
Urucuí
Bom Jesus
MA
PI
Formosa do
Rio Preto
Luiz Eduardo
Magalhães
TO
BA
Campos Lindos
Barreiras
Pedro Afonso
Brazilian
Savannah
Cerrado
84
6. SUMMARY OF MAIN RESULTS
The most dynamic products in agribusiness should be cotton lint,
chicken, cellulose, sugar, soybean, pork, wheat and sugarcane. These
products are those that indicate greater potential for production growth
in the coming years.
85
Table 25 – Brazil - Production Results 2013/14 to 2023/24
Products
Unit
Estimates
Projection 2023/24
to 2013/14
Rice
thousand tons
12,251
13,637 to
Bean
thousand tons
3,714
3,173 to
Corn
thousand tons
77,887 103,121 to
138,603
32.4 to
78.0
Soybean
thousand tons
86,052 117,811 to
139,097
36.9 to
61.6
Soybean Meal
thousand tons
28,105
35,168 to
40,919
25.1 to
45.6
Soybean Oil
thousand tons
7,118
8,961 to
10,896
25.9 to
53.1
Wheat
thousand tons
7,373
9,991 to
19,111
35.5 to 159.2
Chicken
thousand tons
12,691
17,216 to
19,979
35.7 to
57.4
Beef
thousand tons
9,753
11,975 to
14,707
22.8 to
50.8
Pork
thousand tons
3,553
4,680 to
5,948
31.7 to
67.4
47
61 to
82
29.8 to
74.5
Million liters
34,408
44,657 to
49,933
29.8 to
45.1
Manioc
Thousand tons
22,655
21,770 to
32,431
-3.9
to
43.2
Potatoes
Thousand tons
3,711
4,406 to
4,831
18.7 to
30.2
Cotton lint
Thousand tons
1,672
2,350 to
2,981
40.5 to
78.3
Sugar Cane
Thousand tons
658,823 869,777 to 1,053,984
32.0 to
60.0
Tobacco
Thousand tons
865
1,060 to
1,483
22.6 to
71.5
Sugar
Thousand tons
37,878
52,913 to
62,066
39.7 to
63.9
Orange
Thousand tons
16,333
17,521 to
25,741
7.3
to
57.6
Paper
Thousand tons
10,759
13,320 to
13,830
23.8 to
28.5
Pulp
Thousand tons
15,736
20,599 to
23,392
30.9 to
48.7
Cocoa
Thousand tons
256
216 to
392 -15.7 to
52.9
Grape
Thousand tons
1,361
1,650 to
2,117
21.3 to
55.6
Apple
Thousand tons
1,271
1,642 to
2,078
29.2 to
63.5
Banana
Thousand tons
701
765 to
944
9.1
34.7
Coffee
Milk
million sc
21,803
Variation %
11.3 to
78.0
4,292 -14.6 to
15.6
to
Note: Sugar Cane refers to the sugar cane intended to alcohol and sugar production
86
Grain production should increase from 193.6 million tonnes in
2013/2014 to 252.4 million tons in 2024. This indicates an increase of
58.9 million tons to the current production in Brazil, and relative values
30.4%. This, however, will require an effort of growth that should consist
of infrastructure, investment in research and funding. These estimates
are compatible with the expansion of grain production in the last ten
years where production grew 69.0 % (Conab, 2014). This result indicates
that there is growth potential to achieve the designed values.
The production of meat (beef, pork and chicken) will increase by
7.9 million tons. Represents an increase of 30.3% in relation to meat
production for 2013/2014. The chicken is the one to present the highest
growth, 35.7% over 2014 production. Then pork, which is expected to
grow 31.7% and then the beef, 22.8%.
Table 26 – Brazil Production –Projections of Grains
and Meat 2013/14 to 2023/24
Projection
Grains
Production
Planted Area
Unit
2013/14
Thousand tons
193,566
199,656 to
Thousand hectares
56,861
58,553
2014/15
UP Limit. 2023/24
to
variation%
2013/14 to
2023/24
217,428
252,437
30.4
61,469
67,004
17.8
Increase of 58.9 million tons of grains and 10.1 million hectares
Meat
2023/24
variation%
2013/14 to
2023/24
14,122
17,216
35.7
to
10,799
11,975
22.8
3,666
to
4,067
4,680
31.7
26,509
to
28,987
33,871
30.3
Projection
Unit
2013/14
Chicken
Thousand tons
12,691
13,081
to
Beef
Thousand tons
9,753
9,762
Pork
Thousand tons
3,553
Total
Thousand tons
25,997
2014/15
Lsup.
Increase of 7.9 million tons of meat
*Grains: refers to crops raised by Conab in their surveys of crops (cotton, peanuts, rice, oats, canola, rye,
barley, beans, sunflower, castor, corn, soybean, sorghum, wheat and triticale).
87
The growth of agricultural production in Brazil should continue
happening based on productivity. Strong growth of total factor
productivity should be maintained, as recent studies have shown, (Fuglie,
K., Wang, Sun, Ball, V., 2012 and Gasques, et.al. 2014). These studies
show that total factor productivity has grown over 4.0% per year over
the past few years. The global average of the last years was 1.84%.
The results show a greater increase in agricultural production that
increases in area. Between 2014 and 2024 grain production can grow
between 30.4% and 52.3%, while the area should expand by between
17,8 and 45.3%. This projection shows a typical example of growth
based on productivity. We do not believe that the grain area expands
the upper limit of the projection, because the potential productivity is
high, especially in products such as soybeans and corn.
Estimates made until 2023/2024 are that the total planted area with
crops must pass the 70,2 million hectares in 2014 to 82.0 million in 2024.
An increase of 11.8 million hectares. This area expansion is concentrated
in soybean, more than 10.3 million hectares, and cane sugar, more than
2.3 million.
The expansion of soybean area and sugarcane should occur by
the incorporation of new areas, areas of natural pastures and also for
replacing other crops that will give area. Corn must have an expansion
area around 1.0 million hectares (15.7 to 16.7 million hectares between
2014 and 2024) and other crops analyzed mostly tend to lose area.
The domestic market with exports and productivity gains, should
be the main factors for growth in the next decade. In 2023/2024, 42.8%
of soybean production should be aimed at the domestic market, and
corn, 62.2% of production should be consumed internally. Thus there
will be a double pressure on increasing domestic production, due to
the growth of the domestic market and exports. Currently, 46.6% of the
soybean produced is for domestic consumption, and corn, 69.0%.
In meat, there will be strong pressure of the internal market. The
expected increase in the production of chicken, 67.2% of output in
2023/2024 will be for the domestic market; of beef produced, 74.8%
will go to the internal market, and pork, 83.7% will be for the domestic
market. Thus, although Brazil is generally a major exporter of many of
these products, domestic consumption is prevalent in the destination of
production.
88
Table 27- Brazil: Exports Projections 2013/14 to 2023/24
Products
Unit
2013/14 Projection 2023/24
Variation %
Cotton lint
Thousand t
575
893 to
1,892
55.4
to
229.1
Corn
Thousand t
21,000
33,698 to
52,237
60.5
to
148.7
Soybean
Thousand t
45,297
65,244 to
82,563
44.0
to
82.3
Soybean meal
Thousand t
13,579
15,701 to
22,422
15.6
to
65.1
Soybean oil
Thousand t
1,374
1,626 to
4,036
18.4
to
193.9
Chicken
Thousand t
4,002
5,784 to
7,478
44.5
to
86.9
Beef
Thousand t
2,068
2,889 to
4,715
39.7
to
128.1
Pork
Thousand t
534
784 to
1,230
46.9
to
130.4
Coffee
Million sacs
32
40 to
52
24.0
to
63.7
Sugar
Thousand t
27,154
38,801 to
50,378
42.9
to
85.5
Orange juice
Thousand t
2,094
2,626 to
3,187
25.4
to
52.2
138
185 to
1,391
34.7
to
912
Milk
Million litters
Paper
Thousand t
1,937
2,332 to
3,229
20.4
to
66.7
Pulp
Thousand t
9,853
13,735 to
16,375
39.4
to
66.2
89
Table 28 – Leadind Exporters of Agricultural Products
in 2023/24
Million
Tons
Share in the World
Market (%)
Corn
United States
Brazil
Argentina
Former Soviet Union
Total Exports
57.2
31.9
24.1
25.7
145
39.4
22.0
16.6
17.7
100.0
Soybean
Brazil
65.2
United States
48.7
Argentina
16.3
Other South Americans12.5
Total Exports
151.7
43.0
32.1
10.7
8.2
100.0
Beef
Brazil
Índia
United States
Austrália
Others
New Zeland
Total Exports
2.9
2.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.6
10.0
28.9
25.6
15.5
15.1
9.1
5.8
100.0
Chicken
Brazill
United States
Sovietic Union
Thailand
China
Total Exports
5.8
4.3
1.2
1.0
0.6
11.8
48.9
36.1
9.9
8.1
4.7
100.0
Pork
United States
Union European
Canada
Brazil
China
2.9
2.4
1.4
0.8
0.4
36.9
30.8
17.2
10.0
4.9
Total Exports
7.9
100.0
Source: USDA,2014 and AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
90
The five complexes shown in the table represent the main food
consumed in the world and considered essential by almost all the world’s
population.
Should continue expressive and with a tendency to increase the
participation of Brazil in world trade in soybeans, beef and chicken. As
noted, the Brazilian soybean should have in 2023/2024 a share in world
exports of 43.0%, beef 28.9%, and chicken, 48.9%. Besides its importance
in relation to those goods Brazil will maintain leadership in world trade
in coffee, and sugar.
Finally, the regional projections are indicating that the largest
increases in production and area of cane sugar, must occur in the state
of Goiás, although this is still a state of small production. But São Paulo
as major national producer, also projected high growth of production
and area of the product.
Mato Grosso should continue to lead the expansion of maize
production in the country with higher expected increases in production
to 62.2%. The region called MATOPIBA, to be situated in the Brazilian
states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, should present sharp
increase in grain production as well as its area must also present
significant increase. Projections indicate this region is expected to
produce around 22.6 million tons of grain in 2024 (up 21.4%) and an area
planted with grains between 8.4 and 10.9 million hectares at the end of
the period of the projections.
91
7.REFERENCES
ABIOVE – Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais.
Informações obtidas por solicitação, 2014
ABRAF - Associação Brasileira de Produtores de Florestas Plantadas,
Anuário Estatístico da ABRAF, Brasília, 2009, 127 p.
AGROSTAT - (Banco de dados sobre comércio exterior). Ministério da
Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento, 2014. www.agricultura.gov.br/
internacional
BOWERMAN, Bruce L.; O'CONNEL, Richard T. e KOEHLER, Anne B.
Forecasting Time Series and Regression, Thomson, 2005.
BOX, George E. P.; JENKINS, Gwilym M. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting
and Control, Holden Day.
Bradesco, Boletim Diário Matinal. Disponível
economiaemdia.com.br/>. Acesso em: 15/01/2013
em:
<http://www.
Brasil. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Anuário
Estatístico da Agroenergia 2012 - Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia.
Brasília 2013, 282 p.
Brasil. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Disponível
em: <http://www.agricultura.gov.br>. Acesso em maio de 2014.
Brasil. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Projeções
do Agronegócio: Brasil 2012/2013 a 2022/2023, Assessoria de Gestão
Estratégica. Brasília, 2013, 95 p.
BRESSAN FILHO, Ângelo. O etanol como um novo combustível universal.
Análise estatística e projeção do consumo doméstico e exportação de
álcool etílico brasileiro no período de 2006 a 2011. Conab, agosto de
2008.
BROCKLEBANK, John C.; DICKEY, David A. SAS for Forecasting Time
Series - SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc., 2003
92
CONAB. [Site oficial] Disponível em: <http://www.conab.gov.br>.
Acesso em: maio e junho de 2014
EPE - Empresa de Pesquisa Energética. Perspectivas para o Etanol no
Brasil. Cadernos de Energia EPE, (2008).
FAPRI. World agricultural outlook 2008. Center for Agricultural and
Rural Development - Iowa State University, 2008. Disponível em: <http://
www.fapri.iastate.edu/publications>. Acesso em: julho/2012
FGV - FGVDados. Disponível em: <www.fgvdados.fgv.br>. Acesso em
maio de 2014 (banco de dados mediante assinatura)
Cepea/Esalq/USP. Disponível em: <www.cepea.esalq.usp.br>. Acesso
em junho de 2014
Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report.
The Government Office for Science. London.
HOFFMANN, R. Elasticidades Renda das Despesas e do Consumo
de Alimentos no Brasil em 2002-2003. In: Silveira, F. G.; Servo, L. M.
S.; Menezes, F. e Sergio. F. P. (Orgs). Gasto e Consumo das Famílias
Brasileiras Contemporâneas. IPEA, V.2, Brasília, 2007, 551p.
HOMEM DE MELO, F. "A comercialização agrícola em 2012 : depreciação
cambial deverá compensar a queda de preços internacionais - dados
atualizados", publicado no boletim BIF da FIPE do mês de janeiro de
2012.
IBGE – PIB Municipal de 2011. www.ibge.gov.br/sidra . Acesso em junho
de 2014
IBGE. Levantamento sistemático da produção agrícola (LSPA).
Disponível em: <http://www.ibge.gov.br>. Acesso junho de 2014.
IBGE/Cepagro - Ata de 06 de janeiro de 2011
IFPRI. Food Security, farming, and Climate Change to 2050. Scenarios,
results, policy options. 2010.
93
Fuglie Keith O., Wang S. Ling and Ball V. Eldon. Productivity growth in
agriculture: an international perspective. USA, 2012
Keith, F. Productivity Growth in the Global Agricultural Economy
.Pittsburg, 2011
Mapa- Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Diretoria de
Agroenergia. Informações obtidas por solicitação, 2014.
Mapa- Ministério da Agricultura ,
Departamento do Café – DECAF. 2014
Pecuária
e
Abastecimento.
MORETTIN, Pedro A.; TOLOI, Clelia M. C. Análise de Séries Temporais.
ABE - Projeto Fisher e Ed. Blucher, 2004.
OIC – Organização Internacional do Café. Disponível em: <www.ico.org/
coffee/statistics>. Acesso em maio e junho de 2014.
Santiago, C. M. Embrapa - Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Arroz e Feijão,
2013
SAS Institute Inc., SAS / ETS User's Guide, Version 8, Cary, NC: SAS
Institute Inc., 1999.
SAS, Institute Inc., Manuais do software versão 9.2, Cary, NC: SAS
Institute Inc., 2010.
SOUZA, G. S.; GAZOLLA, R.; COELHO, C. H. M.; MARRA, R.; OLIVEIRA,
A. J. DE. Mercado de Carnes: Aspectos Descritivos e Experiências com o
uso de Modelos de Equilíbrio Parcial e de Espaço de Estados. Embrapa
- SGE, Revista de Política Agrícola, ano XV n. 1, 2006, Brasília.
UNICA - União da Indústria de Cana-de-açúcar - Sugarcane Industry in
Brazil, Ethanol, Sugar, Bioelectricity, 2010 (folheto).
USDA. USDA Agricultural Projections. Disponível em: <http://www.
ers.usda.gov/publications/oce081>. Acesso em: fevereiro 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012 e 2013, 2014.
94
Ministério da Agricultura Pecuária e Abastecimento - Assessoria de Gestão Estratégica
Annex 1 - Methodological Note
ATTACHMENT 1 – Methodological Note
1. Introduction
The study of the national agribusiness projections consists on the analysis of
historical series with the use of statistical techniques for analysis of time series classified
as Exponential Smoothing, Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) and State-Space. Below, there is a
brief description of the models, methods and some concepts which were used in this
study. As general reference it is suggested Morettin and Toloi, 2004). Other specific
references are given throughout the text.
1.1 Stationary Process: A process is stationary (weakly) when its mean and its
variance are constant through the time and when the value of the co-variance between two
periods of time depends only on the difference between the two periods of time, and not
on the time itself where the covariance is calculated. We have:
Mean: E(Zt) = µ ;
Variance: VAR (Zt) = E(Zt – µ)2 = σ2
Covariance: ψ = E[(Zt – µ)(Zt+ – µ) ]
κ
κ
Where ψ is the covariance between the values of Zt and Zt+ that is, between two values of
κ,
κ
the time series separated by κ periods.
1.2 Purely Random Process or White Noise: A process (et) is purely random
when its mean is zero, its variance is σ2 and the variables et are not correlated.
1.3 Integrated Process: If a time series (non-stationary) has to be differenced d
times to become stationary, it is said that this series is integrated of order d. An integrated
time series Zt of order d is denoted as: Zt ~ I(d).
2. Exponential Smoothing Models
The Double Exponential Smoothing or Linear Smoothing is adequate to time series
Zt which evolve showing linear trend for which the linear and angular coefficients can also
vary in time. It is possible to demonstrate that optimal representations of the exponential
smoothing models are obtained from the ARIMA models and of State-Space models
described below. In the double exponential smoothing approach (the only one we are
dealing here) the linear coefficient µt (level) of the series in period t and its growth rate βt
Projections of Agribusiness Brazil 2013/2014 a 2023/2024
56
95
in the same period are given by the smoothing equations (see Bowerman, O’ Connel and
Koehler, 2005)
µt = α Zt + (1 − α )( µt + βt −1 )
βt = γ ( µt − µt −1 ) + (1 − γ )βt −1
where α and γ are constants in the interval (0,1) and t=1,2,...,N. The predictor of the
series in period N + τ based on period N is given by Zˆ N +τ = µN + τβ N .
The exponential smoothing, simple, double (discussed here) or even triple can be
obtained from PROC FORECAST (SAS, 2010), but the standard errors of the predictors
may also be computed from state-space methods.
3. ARIMA Models
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model fits data
generated by a univariate time series, transformed to stationarity through calculations of
differences, using a class of models known as autoregressive processes, moving average
processes or mixed autoregressive-moving average processes
3.1. Autoregressive Process (AR)
Let Zt be a stationary time series. If we model Zt as
(Zt - µ) = α (Zt -1 - µ) + et ,
1
where µ is the mean of Zt and et is a white noise, we say that Zt follows an autoregressive
process of first order, or AR(1). In this case, the value of Zt in period t depends on its value
in the previous period and on a random term; the values of Zt are expressed as deviations
of its mean value. So, this model says that the forecasted value of Zt in period t is simply a
proportion (= α ) of its value in the period (t-1) plus a random shock in period t. Stationarity is
1
achieved imposing α1 < 1.
In general, it is possible to have:
(Zt - µ) = α (Zt -1 - µ) + α (Zt -2 - µ) + ... + αp(Zt -p - µ) + et
1
2
In this case Zt follows an autoregressive process of order p, or AR(p) if the coefficients α i
satisfy appropriate conditions.
3.2. Moving Average Process (MA)
57
96
Let Zt be a stationary time series. If we model Zt as
Zt = µ + et − β et −1
Where µ and β are constants with β < 1 , and the error term et is a white noise, it is
said that the time series defines the MA(1) - moving average process of order 1.
In general, if the time series satisfies
Zt = µ + et − β1et −1 − β 2et −2 − L − β q et − q
where the coefficients βi satisfy additional conditions of invertibility, it is said that Zt follows
a moving average process of order q, or MA(q). In summary a moving average process is a
linear combination of terms of a white noise process.
3.3. Autoregressive Moving Average Process (ARMA)
If a stationary time series (Zt) has characteristics of AR with errors following a
process MA, it will be an ARMA process. The series Zt will follow an ARMA process (1,1),
for example, if it can be represented by
Zt = µ + α Zt −1 + et − β et −1
In general, for an ARMA process (p,q) there will be p autoregressive terms and q
moving average terms.
3.4. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process (ARIMA)
If a time series is not stationary, but when differenced d times it becomes
stationary, and it is an AR with errors MA, we say that the time series is an ARIMA (p, d,
q), that is, an integrated autoregressive-moving averages time series, where p denotes
the number of autoregressive terms, d is the number of times that we must difference the
series to make it stationary, and q, is the number of moving average terms. It is important
to emphasize ARMA models can be fit only to stationary and invertible time series. These
properties are achieved through differencing. This approach was proposed by Box and
Jenkins (1976). The fit and computation of forecasts of a given time series with the use of
Box and Jenkins techniques were performed here using PROC ARIMA (SAS, 2010).
3.5. Deterministic Trends with ARMA Errors
In one instance (consumption of cellulose) a satisfactory model was not possible
with the use of integrated models. In this case it was used the regression model Zt=F(t)+Ut
58
97
where Ut is an ARMA error and F(t) a linear function in time. The PROC ARIMA (SAS,
2010) produces statistics for these models using generalized least squares.
4. State-Space Models
The state-space model is a statistical model for a multivariate time series. It
represents the multivariate time series through auxiliary variables, some of which are not
observable directly. These auxiliary variables are denominated state-space variables. The
state-space vector summarizes all the information of values from the present and from the
past on the relevant time series for the prediction of future values for the series. The
observed time series are expressed as linear combination of the state variables. The statespace model is called a Markovian representation or canonical representation of a
multivariate time series.
Let Zt be a q dimensional time series. Its representation in state-space, relate the
observations vector Zt to the state vector Xt , of dimension k, through the linear system
Zt = At X t + dt + St ε t (observation equation),
X t = Gt X t −1 + ct + Rtηt (state or system equation)
where t=1,..., N ; Αt is the matrix of the system of order (q x k); ε t is the noise vector of the
observation of order (q x 1), not correlated in time, with mean vector zero and matrix of
variance Wt of order (q x q), ; Gt is the transition matrix of order (k x k) ; ηt is a noise vector
not correlated in time, of order (k x 1), with mean vector zero and matrix of variance Qt of
order (k x k); dt has order (q x 1) ; ct has order (k x 1); Rt has order (k x k).
In the state-space models it is supposed additionally that the initial state X0 has
mean µ0 and matrix of variance Σ0; the noise vectors ε t and ηt are not correlated with each
other and not correlated with the initial state, that is,
E(εtηs’) = 0, every t , s= 1,...,N; and
E(εt X0’) = 0 and E(ηt X0’) = 0, t= 1,...,N;
It is said that the state-space model is Gaussian when the noise vectors are
normally distributed. The matrixes Αt and Gt are non-stochastic; in this way if there is any
variation in time it will be pre-determined.
59
98
In this work it was used a particular form of the general representation described
above, which is the stationary representation described in SOUZA, et al, 2006 and
Brocklebank and Dickey, 2004.
It is important to notice here that every ARMA process has a state-space
representation.
The parameters of the state-space representation are estimated by maximum
likelihood supposing that the residual shocks vector are normally (multivariate) distributed.
The fit and
forecasts of time series performed via state-space models were
performed using PROC STATESPACE (SAS, 2010).
5. AIC and SBC Information Criterion
The information criteria are very useful to assist in choosing the best model
among those which are potentially adequate. These criteria consider not only the quality of
the fit but also penalize the inclusion of extra parameters. Therefore, a model with more
parameters can have a better fit, however not necessarily it will be preferable in terms of
the information criterion. It is considered the best model by the information criteria the one
which presents the lowest values of AIC or SBC.
The information criterions known as Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the
Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) can be described as follows:
AIC = T ln (estimator of maximum verisimilitude) + 2n,
SBC = T ln (estimator of maximum verisimilitude) + n ln(T)
Where, T is the number of observations used in the computations and n the
number of parameters estimated.
It is interesting to highlight that these information criteria analyzed individually do
not have any meaning considering only one model. Comparison of alternative models (or
competing) is to be done in the same sampling period, in other words, with the same
quantity of information. In this work the use of the information criteria was used in the
choice of the order of some ARMA models and restricted to the Akaike criterion in the
context of the use of the state-space modeling.
60
thousand
hectares
61,469
55,637
65,172
54,309
59,741
226,469
184,352
205,411
2015/16
68,068
53,389
60,729
236,349
186,280
211,315
2016/17
70,621
52,688
61,654
245,257
189,094
217,176
2017/18
72,917
52,193
62,555
254,002
192,110
223,056
2018/19
75,051
51,845
63,448
262,458
195,403
228,930
2019/20
77,063
51,613
64,338
270,744
198,870
234,807
2020/21
78,985
51,469
65,227
278,874
202,493
240,684
2021/22
*– raw cotton,peanuts, rice, oats, canola, rye, barley, beans, sumflower, castor, corn, soybean, sorghum, wheat and triticale
lower limit
Up limit
58,553
181,884
199,656
2014/15
Grains* Area
56,861
193,566
2013/14
217,428
thousand
tons
Unit
lower limit
Up limit
Grains* production
Product
Projection of Grains* - Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
Brazil – National
ANNEX 2 – Results
80,834
51,397
66,115
286,879
206,241
246,560
2022/23
82,624
51,384
67,004
294,778
210,096
252,437
2023/24
45
-10
18
52
9
30
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
lower limit
Up limit
Pork
lower limit
Up limit
Beef
lower limit
Up limit
Chicken
lower limit
Up limit
Wheat
lower limit
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
3,553
9,753
12,691
7,373
7,118
4,067
3,264
3,666
10,799
8,725
9,762
14,122
12,041
13,081
10,519
4,751
7,635
8,125
6,581
7,353
Up limit
thousand
tons
26,986
26,275
4,346
3,211
3,778
11,921
8,696
10,309
14,620
12,417
13,519
11,975
3,818
7,897
8,481
6,539
7,510
33,173
30,079
103,825
82,683
93,254
100,811
66,113
83,462
3,644
2,212
2,928
16,459
9,155
12,807
2,322
1,477
1,900
2015/16
28,676
98,215
81,446
89,831
93,896
67,538
80,717
3,835
2,524
3,179
15,285
10,120
12,703
2,517
1,770
2,143
2014/15
Soybeans oil
28,105
86,052
77,887
3,714
12,251
1,672
2013/14
31,078
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
Unit
lower limit
lower limit
Soybeans
meal
Up limit
Up limit
Soybeans
lower limit
Up limit
Corn
lower limit
Up limit
Beans
lower limit
Up limit
Rice
lower limit
Up limit
Cotton
Production
4,586
3,196
3,891
12,573
8,691
10,632
15,571
12,372
13,972
13,154
3,163
8,158
8,827
6,584
7,706
33,935
27,134
30,534
108,549
84,205
96,377
107,583
65,962
86,773
3,990
2,547
3,268
17,383
8,438
12,910
2,148
1,290
1,719
2016/17
4,806
3,201
4,004
12,661
8,242
10,451
16,090
12,774
14,432
14,188
2,652
8,420
9,164
6,608
7,886
34,918
27,165
31,041
113,376
85,582
99,479
110,940
65,296
88,118
4,066
2,388
3,227
18,179
7,849
13,014
2,558
1,641
2,099
2017/18
5,013
3,219
4,116
13,091
8,086
10,589
16,931
12,857
14,894
15,131
2,233
8,682
9,472
6,660
8,066
36,218
27,601
31,910
117,921
87,188
102,555
117,488
65,544
91,516
3,949
2,124
3,036
18,892
7,344
13,118
2,813
1,730
2,271
2018/19
5,212
3,246
4,229
13,600
8,454
11,027
17,445
13,270
15,358
16,008
1,879
8,944
9,773
6,720
8,247
37,158
27,967
32,562
122,309
88,903
105,606
120,947
65,438
93,193
4,096
2,232
3,164
19,547
6,896
13,222
2,622
1,522
2,072
2019/20
5,403
3,280
4,342
13,699
8,510
11,105
18,225
13,419
15,822
16,836
1,574
9,205
10,064
6,787
8,425
38,043
28,227
33,135
126,624
90,696
108,660
126,846
66,209
96,528
4,193
2,217
3,205
20,158
6,493
13,326
2,689
1,582
2,135
2020/21
5,589
3,319
4,454
13,799
8,520
11,159
18,734
13,839
16,286
17,625
1,309
9,467
10,347
6,862
8,604
39,082
28,630
33,856
130,846
92,577
111,712
129,980
66,297
98,138
4,149
2,049
3,099
20,734
6,125
13,429
3,004
1,819
2,411
2021/22
5,771
3,363
4,567
14,314
8,916
11,615
19,474
14,029
16,751
18,381
1,076
9,729
10,624
6,941
8,783
40,031
29,047
34,539
134,999
94,523
114,761
135,617
67,377
101,497
4,209
2,049
3,129
21,280
5,786
13,533
3,051
1,800
2,426
2022/23
Projected Prodution - Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
5,948
3,411
4,680
14,707
9,243
11,975
19,979
14,454
17,216
19,111
870
9,991
10,896
7,026
8,961
40,919
29,417
35,168
139,097
96,525
117,811
138,603
67,638
103,121
4,292
2,053
3,173
21,803
5,471
13,637
2,981
1,719
2,350
2023/24
67
-4
32
51
-5
23
57
14
36
159
-88
35
53
-1
26
46
5
25
62
12
37
78
-13
32
16
-45
-15
78
-55
11
78
3
41
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
bunche
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
15,736
10,759
701
1,271
1,361
256
658,823
17,106
15,240
16,173
11,237
10,746
10,992
764
651
707
1,488
1,124
1,306
1,605
1,221
1,413
315
182
249
671,690
671,690
671,690
1,079
701
17,952
15,397
16,675
11,565
10,969
11,267
793
634
714
1,560
1,128
1,344
1,647
1,201
1,424
332
161
247
723,714
659,439
691,576
1,093
715
904
38,885
34,060
36,473
20,247
12,895
16,571
4,279
3,622
3,950
27,665
16,920
22,292
45,774
36,755
41,265
62
40
51
18,681
15,686
17,183
11,848
11,184
11,516
818
622
720
1,638
1,124
1,381
1,733
1,186
1,459
343
141
242
781,900
644,897
713,399
1,197
661
929
41,016
35,739
38,377
21,191
12,187
16,689
4,257
3,599
3,928
28,658
16,289
22,473
48,304
37,570
42,937
67
40
53
19,410
15,892
17,651
12,136
11,415
11,776
839
613
726
1,707
1,130
1,418
1,788
1,177
1,483
354
124
239
837,348
636,543
736,946
1,211
675
943
41,826
35,220
38,523
22,007
11,610
16,808
4,370
3,686
4,028
29,362
15,253
22,307
50,305
38,223
44,264
68
40
54
20,116
16,196
18,156
12,429
11,641
12,035
859
606
20,789
16,492
18,640
12,704
11,874
12,289
878
601
739
1,838
1,774
733
1,148
1,493
1,907
1,171
1,539
369
93
231
917,432
645,198
781,315
1,310
654
982
44,623
36,516
40,569
23,413
10,679
17,046
4,549
3,781
4,165
30,559
13,720
22,140
54,394
39,932
47,163
73
40
56
1,137
1,456
1,852
1,173
1,513
362
108
235
880,618
637,752
759,185
1,296
640
968
43,927
36,923
40,425
22,739
11,115
16,927
4,501
3,754
4,127
29,971
14,455
22,213
52,415
39,083
45,749
72
39
55
21,459
16,798
19,128
13,000
12,106
12,553
895
596
746
1,900
1,160
1,530
1,963
1,172
1,567
376
79
227
952,403
654,149
803,276
1,385
628
1,007
46,696
38,244
42,470
24,042
10,288
17,165
4,599
3,820
4,209
31,073
13,005
22,039
56,365
40,852
48,608
76
40
58
22,113
17,131
19,622
13,269
12,340
12,805
912
592
752
1,961
1,174
1,568
2,015
1,174
1,595
382
65
224
986,930
663,961
825,446
1,399
642
1,021
47,315
37,912
42,613
24,635
9,932
17,283
4,686
3,882
4,284
31,558
12,346
21,952
58,288
41,791
50,040
77
40
59
22,755
17,461
20,108
13,564
12,576
13,070
928
589
758
2,020
1,190
1,605
2,067
1,178
1,622
387
53
220
1,020,836
674,368
847,602
1,469
622
1,046
49,368
39,660
44,514
25,200
9,604
17,402
4,768
3,936
4,352
32,008
11,714
21,861
60,190
42,765
51,478
80
41
60
23,392
17,806
20,599
13,830
12,811
13,320
944
586
765
2,078
1,206
1,642
2,117
1,183
1,650
392
40
216
1,053,984
685,569
869,777
1,483
636
1,060
49,933
39,381
44,657
25,741
9,301
17,521
4,831
3,980
4,406
32,431
11,109
21,770
62,066
43,759
52,913
82
41
61
Note: Sugar Cane refers to the sugar cane intended to alcohol and sugar production
* seed cotton, full peanuts, rice, oats, canola, rye, barley, full beans, sunflower, castor, full corn, soybeans, sorghum, wheat and triticale
lower limit
Up limit
Pulp
lower limit
Up limit
Paper
lower limit
Up limit
Banana
lower limit
Up limit
Apple
lower limit
Up limit
Grape
lower limit
Up limit
cocoa
lower limit
Up limit
Sugar Cane
lower limit
Up limit
890
34,746
36,322
19,051
13,853
16,452
4,254
3,642
3,948
27,108
18,695
22,902
44,074
36,585
40,330
48
48
48
Tobacco
865
34,408
16,333
3,711
22,655
37,878
47
37,897
million liters
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
millions
bags
lower limit
Up limit
Milk
lower limit
Up limit
Orange
lower limit
Up limit
Potato
lower limit
Up limit
Manioc
lower limit
Up limit
Sugar
lower limit
Up limit
Coffee
31
49
13
31
29
19
24
35
-16
9
64
-5
29
56
-13
21
53
-84
-16
60
4
32
72
-26
23
45
14
30
58
-43
7
30
7
19
43
-51
-4
64
16
40
74
-13
lower limit
Up limit
Manioc ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
Coffee
lower limit
Up limit
Wheat
lower limit
Up limit
Soybeans
lower limit
Up limit
Corn
lower limit
Up limit
Beans
lower limit
Up limit
Rice
lower limit
Up limit
Cotton
Planted Area
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
Unit
1,525
2,016
2,617
30,105
15,726
3,359
2,417
1,095
2013/14
850
1,797
1,335
1,566
1,818
1,200
1,509
2,425
1,507
1,955
1,955
1,966
3,725
1,743
2,734
36,736
28,792
32,764
1,955
3,376
1,975
2,676
33,887
29,309
31,598
18,422
13,326
13,799
17,518
15,874
4,222
2,039
3,131
3,127
1,312
2,220
15,659
4,016
2,473
3,245
2,960
1,677
2,318
1,594
1,094
1,747
1,222
2015/16
1,420
2014/15
1,863
1,153
1,508
2,494
1,423
1,958
4,006
1,579
2,793
39,176
28,395
33,785
19,055
12,931
15,993
4,353
1,680
3,016
3,232
1,010
2,121
1,442
618
1,030
2016/17
1,897
1,083
1,490
2,555
1,333
1,944
4,253
1,450
2,851
41,336
28,166
34,751
19,553
12,606
16,080
4,445
1,359
2,902
3,305
739
2,022
1,706
809
1,258
2017/18
1,920
1,024
1,472
2,613
1,263
1,938
4,477
1,343
2,910
43,324
28,070
35,697
20,056
12,320
16,188
4,513
1,062
2,788
3,358
489
1,924
1,867
845
1,356
2018/19
1,944
970
1,457
2,661
1,190
1,925
4,685
1,252
2,968
45,187
28,078
36,633
20,527
12,079
16,303
4,563
784
2,674
3,396
254
1,825
1,704
637
1,171
2019/20
1,963
917
1,440
2,707
1,129
1,918
4,881
1,173
3,027
46,959
28,171
37,565
20,960
11,863
16,412
4,601
518
2,559
3,423
29
1,726
1,719
607
1,163
2020/21
1,980
868
1,424
2,747
1,065
1,906
5,068
1,103
3,085
48,662
28,330
38,496
21,372
11,668
16,520
4,627
263
2,445
3,442
-
1,627
1,915
732
1,324
2021/22
1,996
820
1,408
2,787
1,009
1,898
5,246
1,042
3,144
50,311
28,543
39,427
21,768
11,491
16,630
4,645
16
2,331
3,453
-
1,529
1,924
678
1,301
2022/23
Projections of Planted Area - Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
2,010
773
1,391
2,822
952
1,887
5,419
986
3,203
51,915
28,799
40,357
22,149
11,329
16,739
4,656
-
2,217
3,458
-
1,430
1,842
558
1,200
2023/24
32
-49
-9
40
-53
-6
107
-62
22
72
-4
34
41
-28
6
39
-
-34
43
-
-41
68
-49
10
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
thousand
hectares
489
37
78
686
8,811
417
717
132
144
853
530
440
519
455
41
485
487
40
38
35
36
38
86
72
74
83
79
78
775
594
604
764
685
9,949
8,566
9,258
524
340
684
9,130
9,130
9,130
477
374
432
817
425
545
599
699
147
708
112
128
118
132
539
429
484
42
35
39
89
71
80
787
579
683
10,634
8,441
9,537
565
310
437
878
502
690
141
109
125
545
418
482
44
35
39
92
70
81
796
570
683
11,274
8,222
9,748
601
284
443
898
463
681
140
108
124
551
409
480
45
35
40
94
69
82
805
560
682
11,776
8,204
9,990
633
262
448
915
429
672
140
105
122
556
401
479
45
35
40
96
69
83
812
551
681
12,218
8,201
10,209
662
243
453
929
396
663
138
102
120
Note: Area of Sugar Cane , refers to area destinated to production of alcohol and sugar. * harvested area
lower limit
Up limit
Banana ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
Apple ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
Grape ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
cocoa ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
Sugar Cane ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
Tobacco ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
Orange ( * )
lower limit
Up limit
Potato ( * )
561
393
477
46
35
41
98
69
84
820
542
681
12,640
8,241
10,440
688
226
457
941
366
654
137
99
118
565
385
475
47
36
41
100
69
84
827
534
680
13,050
8,282
10,666
713
211
462
952
337
645
135
97
116
569
378
474
48
36
42
102
68
85
833
526
680
13,450
8,341
10,895
737
197
467
962
310
636
134
94
114
572
371
472
49
36
42
104
68
86
839
518
679
13,838
8,408
11,123
759
185
472
970
283
627
132
92
112
17
-24
-3
31
-4
13
33
-12
10
22
-24
-1
57
-5
26
82
-56
13
35
-61
-13
1
-30
-15
lower limit
Up limit
Wheat
lower limit
Up limit
Soybeans oil
lower limit
Up limit
Soybeans meal
lower limit
Up limit
Soybeans
lower limit
Up limit
Corn
lower limit
Up limit
Beans
lower limit
Up limit
Rice
lower limit
Up limit
Cotton
Consumption
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
Unit
12,192
5,500
14,100
40,080
53,818
3,450
12,000
900
13,443
11,366
12,405
5,911
5,222
14,086
11,149
12,617
6,225
5,058
5,642
16,085
15,234
5,566
14,006
15,046
47,988
36,729
42,358
58,892
52,844
55,868
4,090
2,860
3,475
12,801
11,293
12,047
1,044
772
908
13,824
14,529
45,698
36,767
41,233
56,652
53,100
54,876
3,897
3,028
3,463
12,557
11,490
12,023
1,000
808
904
14,628
11,031
12,830
6,564
4,946
5,755
16,793
14,303
15,548
49,739
37,044
43,391
60,927
52,810
56,868
4,240
2,735
3,488
12,994
11,146
12,070
1,078
746
912
15,119
10,966
13,042
6,913
4,847
5,880
17,463
14,575
16,019
51,612
37,191
44,401
62,859
52,938
57,899
4,369
2,631
3,500
13,161
11,027
12,094
1,108
724
916
15,577
10,933
13,255
7,258
4,775
6,016
18,181
14,895
16,538
53,329
37,499
45,414
64,675
53,196
58,936
4,484
2,541
3,513
13,310
10,925
12,117
1,134
705
920
16,011
10,924
13,468
7,597
4,724
6,161
18,851
15,247
17,049
54,969
37,865
46,417
66,396
53,538
59,967
4,589
2,461
3,525
13,447
10,834
12,141
1,159
689
924
16,428
10,933
13,680
7,928
4,690
6,309
19,492
15,595
17,543
56,583
38,256
47,420
68,055
53,945
61,000
4,687
2,388
3,538
13,575
10,753
12,164
1,182
674
928
16,830
10,956
13,893
8,250
4,673
6,461
20,143
15,958
18,050
58,152
38,694
48,423
69,665
54,404
62,034
4,779
2,321
3,550
13,696
10,679
12,188
1,203
660
932
17,221
10,990
14,105
8,563
4,668
6,616
20,783
16,336
18,559
59,688
39,161
49,425
71,234
54,902
63,068
4,866
2,259
3,563
13,811
10,611
12,211
1,223
648
936
17,602
11,034
14,318
8,869
4,674
6,772
21,407
16,716
19,061
61,200
39,654
50,427
72,770
55,434
64,102
4,949
2,201
3,575
13,921
10,548
12,235
1,243
636
939
44
-9
17
61
-15
23
52
19
35
53
-1
26
35
3
19
43
-36
4
16
-12
2
38
-29
4
variation %
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2013/14 to
2023/24
Projections of Consumption - Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
million
liters
millions
bags
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
6,327
10,125
36,298
20
12,233
3,032
7,744
8,689
lower limit
Up limit
Pulp
lower limit
Up limit
Paper
lower limit
Up limit
Milk
lower limit
Up limit
Coffee
lower limit
Up limit
Sugar
lower limit
Up limit
Pork
lower limit
Up limit
Beef
lower limit
Up limit
Chicken
6,862
5,923
6,392
10,820
9,846
10,333
40,069
34,551
37,310
21
21
21
13,640
10,882
12,261
4,750
1,491
3,120
8,332
6,898
7,615
9,615
8,338
8,976
7,034
6,029
6,531
11,243
9,953
10,598
41,810
34,794
38,302
22
20
21
14,300
11,087
12,694
5,513
904
3,209
8,880
6,852
7,866
10,166
8,360
9,263
7,224
6,085
6,654
11,595
10,131
10,863
43,420
35,161
39,290
23
21
22
14,881
11,046
12,963
6,119
475
3,297
9,198
6,980
8,089
10,656
8,445
9,551
7,356
6,161
6,759
11,923
10,280
11,102
44,948
35,608
40,278
24
21
22
15,442
11,155
13,299
6,644
126
3,385
9,189
6,795
7,992
11,115
8,561
9,838
7,531
6,248
6,889
12,267
10,487
11,377
46,419
36,112
41,265
24
22
23
15,970
11,245
13,607
7,117
-
3,474
9,399
6,765
8,082
11,553
8,697
10,125
7,678
6,324
7,001
12,562
10,639
11,601
47,849
36,657
42,253
25
22
24
16,485
11,369
13,927
7,553
-
3,562
9,752
7,090
8,421
11,976
8,848
10,412
7,829
6,412
7,120
12,905
10,858
11,881
49,246
37,234
43,240
26
22
24
16,983
11,501
14,242
7,961
-
3,650
9,841
7,161
8,501
12,389
9,010
10,699
7,984
6,498
7,241
13,188
11,015
12,102
50,617
37,838
44,228
27
23
25
17,471
11,647
14,559
8,347
-
3,738
9,906
7,098
8,502
12,792
9,181
10,987
8,129
6,584
7,356
13,529
11,242
12,385
51,967
38,464
45,215
27
23
25
17,949
11,802
14,875
8,715
-
3,827
10,230
7,289
8,759
13,189
9,358
11,274
8,279
6,674
7,476
13,805
11,406
12,605
53,297
39,108
46,203
28
24
26
18,419
11,965
15,192
9,068
-
3,915
10,451
7,456
8,953
13,580
9,542
11,561
31
5
18
36
13
25
47
8
27
39
19
29
51
-2
24
199
-
29
35
-4
16
56
10
33
lower limit
Up limit
Beef
lower limit
Up limit
Chicken
lower limit
Up limit
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
2,068
4,002
2,515
1,770
2,143
4,674
3,689
4,181
2,119
941
1,530
12,406
14,166
52,768
41,815
47,292
30,264
15,348
22,806
923
291
607
2014/15
Soybeans oil
1,374
13,579
45,297
21,000
575
2013/14
15,926
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
Unit
lower limit
Up limit
Soybeans meal
lower limit
Up limit
Soybeans
lower limit
Up limit
Corn
lower limit
Up limit
Cotton
Export
2,861
1,584
2,223
4,887
3,758
4,323
2,422
701
1,562
17,103
11,675
14,389
57,032
41,541
49,286
35,117
14,885
25,001
1,085
192
639
2015/16
3,165
1,445
2,305
5,384
3,670
4,527
2,686
509
1,598
18,154
11,277
14,715
60,767
41,795
51,281
37,144
14,676
25,910
1,218
123
671
2016/17
3,435
1,341
2,388
5,613
3,747
4,680
2,945
299
1,622
18,821
10,746
14,783
64,229
42,322
53,276
39,264
14,317
26,790
1,334
71
702
2017/18
3,682
1,261
2,471
6,054
3,727
4,890
3,164
97
1,631
19,545
10,333
14,939
67,517
43,024
55,270
41,748
14,287
28,018
1,440
28
734
2018/19
3,910
1,199
2,555
6,276
3,816
5,046
3,369
-
1,637
20,230
10,027
15,128
70,680
43,849
57,265
44,016
14,368
29,192
1,540
-
766
2019/20
4,125
1,151
2,638
6,679
3,837
5,258
3,556
-
1,637
20,801
9,713
15,257
73,750
44,769
59,260
46,121
14,476
30,298
1,634
-
798
2020/21
4,330
1,113
2,722
6,893
3,936
5,415
3,727
-
1,635
21,358
9,430
15,394
76,745
45,763
61,254
48,201
14,648
31,425
1,723
-
830
2021/22
4,526
1,084
2,805
7,271
3,984
5,627
3,887
-
1,631
21,912
9,201
15,557
79,679
46,818
63,249
50,247
14,883
32,565
1,809
-
862
2022/23
Projections of Export - Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
4,715
1,062
2,889
7,478
4,090
5,784
4,036
-
1,626
22,422
8,980
15,701
82,563
47,924
65,244
52,237
15,158
33,698
1,892
-
893
2023/24
128.1
-48.6
39.7
86.9
2.2
44.5
193.9
-
18.4
65.1
-33.9
15.6
82.3
5.8
44.0
148.7
-27.8
60.5
229.1
-
55.4
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
millions
liters
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
millions
bags
thousand
tons
9,853
1,937
138
2,094
27,154
32
534
lower limit
Up limit
Pulp
lower limit
Up limit
Paper
lower limit
Up limit
Milk
lower limit
Up limit
Suco de Orange
lower limit
Up limit
Sugar
lower limit
Up limit
Coffee
lower limit
Up limit
Pork
11,233
9,247
10,240
2,257
1,734
1,995
657
-
142
2,448
1,910
2,179
32,552
23,096
27,824
39
26
33
700
418
559
11,916
9,326
10,621
2,470
1,640
2,055
777
-
147
2,537
1,893
2,215
34,896
23,519
29,207
41
26
33
783
385
584
12,527
9,517
11,022
2,576
1,581
2,079
879
-
152
2,631
1,914
2,272
37,128
23,577
30,352
42
26
34
853
365
609
13,117
9,688
11,403
2,712
1,532
2,122
970
-
157
2,715
1,926
2,320
39,208
23,947
31,577
44
26
35
916
352
634
13,694
9,894
11,794
2,782
1,502
2,142
1,052
-
161
2,799
1,946
2,372
41,198
24,352
32,775
45
26
36
974
344
659
14,248
10,118
12,183
2,897
1,483
2,190
1,128
-
166
2,880
1,966
2,423
43,122
24,843
33,982
47
26
37
1,029
339
684
14,794
10,345
12,569
2,961
1,464
2,213
1,200
-
171
2,959
1,989
2,474
44,993
25,380
35,186
48
26
37
1,082
336
709
15,329
10,590
12,959
3,068
1,454
2,261
1,267
-
176
3,036
2,013
2,525
46,821
25,962
36,391
50
27
38
1,133
335
734
15,855
10,839
13,347
3,128
1,440
2,284
1,330
-
180
3,112
2,038
2,575
48,614
26,578
37,596
51
27
39
1,182
336
759
16,375
11,096
13,735
3,229
1,435
2,332
1,391
-
185
3,187
2,065
2,626
50,378
27,224
38,801
52
27
40
1,230
338
784
66.2
12.6
39.4
66.7
-25.9
20.4
911.6
-
34.7
52.2
-1.4
25.4
85.5
0.3
42.9
63.7
-15.7
24.0
130.4
-36.6
46.9
millions
liters
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
thousand
tons
Unit
1,057
5,500
300
1,000
2013/14
lower limit
Up limit
Milk
lower limit
Up limit
Wheat
lower limit
Up limit
Beans
lower limit
Up limit
Rice
Import
2,820
-
1,047
7,201
3,754
5,478
436
178
307
1,769
165
967
2014/15
3,209
-
1,037
7,893
3,018
5,456
497
132
314
2,069
-
934
2015/16
3,535
-
1,028
8,418
2,448
5,433
545
98
322
2,291
-
901
2016/17
3,821
-
1,018
8,858
1,964
5,411
587
71
329
2,473
-
868
2017/18
4,079
-
1,008
9,243
1,535
5,389
625
47
336
2,629
-
836
2018/19
4,316
-
999
9,588
1,145
5,367
659
27
343
2,768
-
803
2019/20
4,535
-
989
9,904
785
5,345
692
9
350
2,892
-
770
2020/21
4,740
-
979
10,197
448
5,322
723
-
358
3,006
-
737
2021/22
4,934
-
970
10,470
130
5,300
752
-
365
3,111
-
704
2022/23
Projections of Import - Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
5,118
-
960
10,728
-
5,278
780
-
372
3,208
-
671
2023/24
384.4
-
-9.2
95.1
-
-4.0
160.0
-
24.0
220.8
-
-32.9
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
7,259
2013/14
18,623
2013/14
6,998
6,036
7,959
2014/15
23,043
20,368
17,693
2014/15
7,570
6,554
8,585
2015/16
20,748
16,966
13,183
2015/16
7,245
5,768
8,722
2016/17
20,456
16,647
12,839
2016/17
7,795
6,274
9,316
2017/18
24,460
20,626
16,792
2017/18
7,463
5,594
9,331
2018/19
26,503
22,029
17,555
2018/19
8,011
6,106
9,916
2019/20
24,880
19,847
14,813
2019/20
7,678
5,485
9,871
2020/21
24,902
19,813
14,724
2020/21
8,226
6,002
10,449
2021/22
27,917
22,773
17,629
2021/22
7,892
5,417
10,367
2022/23
29,476
23,939
18,402
2022/23
* It is a region located at the Centre – Northeast of Brazil and formed by municipalities of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia.
Grains
Up limit
lower limit
Planted Area
lower limit
Grains
Up limit
Production
8,440
5,938
10,942
2023/24
28,510
22,607
16,703
2023/24
16
-18
51
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
53
21
-10
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
Production Projections and Planted Área - 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
Brazil – MATOPIBA
2016/17
2017/18
155
432
293
250
156
203
566
448
303
265
159
212
592
467
313
279
163
221
616
486
829
1,532
1,250
483
866
2,234
1,334
1,784
522
188
2019/20
2020/21
1,346
461
903
2,560
1,398
1,979
525
191
1,435
445
940
3,031
1,430
2,231
526
192
1,520
435
978
3,398
1,454
2,426
528
193
1,600
429
1,015
3,896
1,459
2,678
528
194
361
140
506
323
293
167
230
642
503
1,678
426
1,052
4,295
1,450
2,873
529
195
362
137
529
333
306
172
239
668
522
1,753
425
1,089
4,818
1,431
3,124
529
195
362
135
550
343
319
177
248
692
541
1,826
426
1,126
5,246
1,394
3,320
530
195
362
134
571
353
332
182
257
717
560
639
2021/22
lower limit
Up limit
lower limit
Up limit
lower limit
353
361
Up limit
2018/19
Soybeans - Selected Municipalities - thousand tons
507
529
551
573
595
617
2015/16
*Barreiras
Região localizada
no Brasil central formada pelos355
estados de358
MA, TO, PI,
BA
- BA
359
163
403
283
236
153
194
535
434
485
2014/15
143
482
273
185
464
2013/14
148
458
Up limit
lower
limit
Fonte:
AGE/Mapa
e SGE/Embrapa
Uruçuí - PI
lower limit
Up limit
Campos Lindos - TO
lower limit
Up limit
Balsas - MA
Production
1,897
429
1,163
5,790
1,352
3,571
530
196
363
133
592
362
345
187
266
742
579
661
2022/23
Production Projections - 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
Brazil – MATOPIBA
1,967
433
1,200
6,244
1,289
3,767
530
196
363
133
612
372
358
193
275
767
598
682
2023/24
137
-48
45
308
-16
146
50
-45
3
-51
124
36
94
4
49
65
29
47
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
2015/16
264
lower limit
Up limit
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
206
837
457
265
927
486
266
-
339
192
199
327
198
73
70
1,006
535
268
-
371
207
210
76
143
151
77
91
114
40
65
199
141
1,077
554
269
-
385
217
212
78
145
159
78
97
119
40
68
209
145
1,143
588
270
-
411
235
214
79
147
167
80
103
123
39
71
218
149
1,205
596
271
-
415
235
215
80
148
175
81
109
128
39
74
227
154
1,262
626
272
-
435
244
216
81
148
182
83
114
133
40
77
236
158
670
274
1,369
1,317
459
249
216
82
149
197
88
125
142
40
83
254
167
211
2022/23
635
273
-
437
240
216
82
149
190
86
119
138
40
80
245
163
204
2021/22
lower limit
309
lower limit
Up limit
127
142
139
133
134
84
109
42
63
189
137
lower limit
77
104
43
60
179
134
Barreiras - BA
Up limit
2016/17
Soybeans - Selected Municipalities - thousand Hectares
157
163
170
177
184
190
197
2014/15
76
99
58
150
2013/14
76
Up limit
lower limit
Uruçuí - PI
Up limit
Campos Lindos - TO
lower limit
Up limit
Balsas - MA
Planted Area
Projections f Planted Area - 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
Brazil – MATOPIBA
1,419
683
275
-
466
250
217
82
149
204
90
130
147
41
85
262
172
217
2023/24
437
121
4
-
51
-19
70
-35
17
106
-9
126
48
-29
49
75
15
45
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
lower limit
Up limit
MG
lower limit
Up limit
SP
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
MT
lower limit
Up limit
MG
lower limit
Up limit
GO
lower limit
Up limit
RS
Production
6,957
404,680
49,227
19,153
76,741
69,307
8,434
2013/14
8,600
6,581
7,590
469,649
389,475
429,562
57,714
43,866
50,790
20,908
16,247
18,577
86,628
74,730
80,679
77,795
64,324
71,060
9,772
7,610
8,691
2014/15
9,206
6,728
7,967
441,709
342,873
392,291
63,993
40,872
52,433
21,400
15,234
18,317
94,599
73,803
84,201
84,490
62,244
73,367
10,289
7,614
8,952
2015/16
9,132
6,583
7,858
532,946
360,283
446,615
69,059
39,130
54,094
23,496
16,833
20,164
101,977
73,032
87,504
91,110
60,883
75,997
10,467
7,602
9,035
2016/17
2018/19
2019/20
11,006
7,917
9,462
11,330
8,109
9,720
579,218
385,109
482,163
77,571
37,273
57,422
25,672
18,872
22,272
115,253
72,344
93,799
103,747
59,729
81,738
556,002
361,427
458,714
81,381
36,791
59,086
25,564
18,166
21,865
121,323
72,424
96,873
109,719
59,733
84,726
9,411
6,621
8,016
9,898
6,779
8,339
10,127
6,835
8,481
Corn - thousand tons
523,169
342,063
432,616
73,504
38,012
55,758
24,982
18,317
21,650
108,832
72,539
90,686
97,544
60,082
78,813
Sugar Cane - thousand tons
10,722
7,789
9,256
Rice - thousand tons
2017/18
10,317
6,870
8,594
607,674
402,575
505,125
85,002
36,498
60,750
26,252
17,968
22,110
127,111
72,743
99,927
115,478
60,022
87,750
11,608
8,221
9,914
2020/21
10,629
6,979
8,804
584,090
378,470
481,280
88,476
36,352
62,414
27,444
18,833
23,139
132,671
73,266
102,968
121,051
60,539
90,795
11,875
8,374
10,125
2021/22
10,917
7,086
9,001
637,276
417,973
527,624
91,833
36,324
64,078
28,815
20,104
24,459
138,045
73,961
106,003
126,462
61,244
93,853
12,125
8,515
10,320
2022/23
11,145
7,163
9,154
614,640
394,172
504,406
95,092
36,393
65,742
29,494
20,666
25,080
143,266
74,803
109,035
131,733
62,102
96,918
12,395
8,686
10,540
2023/24
60
3
32
52
-3
25
93
-26
34
54
8
31
87
-3
42
90
-10
40
47
3
25
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
Production Projections – Selected Regions - 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
Brazil – Regions
760
2,979
3,825
12,734
14,741
27,002
3,229
15,295
16,839
964
651
807
3,155
1,010
2,082
5,935
1,863
3,899
18,726
7,447
13,086
18,543
13,767
16,155
30,818
25,812
28,315
3,012
4,187
3,600
20,589
12,714
16,652
26,018
16,355
21,187
lower limit
Up limit
RS
lower limit
Up limit
RS
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
RS
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
MT
lower limit
Up limit
BA
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
MT
976
631
803
4,270
1,835
3,053
6,440
1,494
3,967
21,414
5,463
13,439
17,597
12,113
14,855
32,764
25,598
29,181
2,658
4,053
3,356
20,090
11,213
15,652
26,605
15,549
21,077
1,036
618
827
3,656
779
2,217
6,936
1,374
4,155
23,559
4,023
13,791
20,345
14,540
17,442
34,601
26,032
30,317
2,742
4,144
3,443
23,517
13,717
18,617
30,566
14,726
22,646
25,348
13,182
19,265
36,065
15,056
25,560
23,854
11,359
17,607
34,731
12,781
23,756
27,105
1,885
14,495
21,039
14,926
17,982
37,987
27,065
32,526
2,984
4,746
3,865
28,661
1,033
14,847
20,622
14,454
17,538
39,590
27,666
33,628
2,936
4,755
3,846
4,115
704
2,409
7,786
1,075
4,430
5,170
1,659
3,415
8,173
952
4,562
1,065
607
836
1,105
601
853
1,137
594
865
Grape - thousand tons
4,721
1,796
3,259
7,363
1,178
4,270
Wheat - thousand tons
25,422
2,864
14,143
19,480
13,588
16,534
36,336
26,524
31,430
3,045
4,583
3,814
Soybeans - thousand tons
23,249
12,077
17,663
30,360
13,271
21,815
1,170
590
880
4,513
616
2,564
8,554
870
4,712
30,120
279
15,199
22,334
15,997
19,166
41,155
28,305
34,730
3,125
4,998
4,061
26,567
12,817
19,692
39,089
14,018
26,553
1,201
587
894
5,565
1,608
3,586
8,915
787
4,851
31,502
-
15,551
21,865
15,441
18,653
42,687
28,975
35,831
3,235
5,242
4,239
25,965
11,522
18,743
38,976
13,022
25,999
1,232
584
908
4,894
586
2,740
9,269
724
4,996
32,822
-
15,904
23,299
16,790
20,045
44,195
29,671
36,933
3,225
5,326
4,276
28,531
13,422
20,976
42,992
14,317
28,655
1,262
583
922
5,941
1,569
3,755
9,610
665
5,137
34,089
-
16,256
23,037
16,475
19,756
45,681
30,388
38,035
3,311
5,466
4,388
27,466
11,838
19,652
42,019
12,613
27,316
62
66
-23
21
99
-47
26
151
-83
34
168
-
28
56
12
34
69
13
41
3
69
36
80
-23
28
150
-25
lower limit
Up limit
MG
lower limit
Up limit
SP
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
MT
lower limit
Up limit
MG
lower limit
Up limit
GO
lower limit
Up limit
RS
1,325
5,046
658
280
953
859
1,114
Planted Area 2013/14
1,445
1,187
1,316
5,676
5,010
5,343
720
638
679
320
262
291
1,062
935
998
957
802
879
1,218
1,043
1,131
2014/15
1,489
1,125
1,307
5,573
4,702
5,137
777
625
701
342
260
301
1,155
923
1,039
1,040
773
907
1,283
980
1,132
2015/16
1,521
1,075
1,298
6,336
4,756
5,546
824
623
723
362
261
311
1,240
913
1,077
1,124
753
939
1,292
956
1,124
2016/17
2018/19
2019/20
1,327
958
1,143
1,350
958
1,154
6,925
4,894
5,910
905
630
767
397
267
332
1,394
902
1,148
1,283
734
1,009
6,851
4,773
5,812
942
637
789
413
271
342
1,465
902
1,184
1,358
732
1,045
1,546
1,031
1,289
1,568
992
1,280
1,586
955
1,271
Corn - thousand hectares
6,364
4,608
5,486
866
625
745
380
264
322
1,320
906
1,113
1,205
741
973
1,602
921
1,261
7,343
5,084
6,213
978
645
812
429
276
352
1,532
905
1,218
1,431
734
1,082
1,366
952
1,159
2020/21
Sugar Cane - thousand hectares
1,312
952
1,132
Rice - thousand hectares
2017/18
1,617
888
1,252
7,256
4,955
6,105
1,013
654
834
445
281
363
1,596
911
1,253
1,501
738
1,120
1,383
946
1,164
2021/22
1,630
857
1,243
7,743
5,260
6,501
1,047
665
856
460
286
373
1,658
918
1,288
1,569
746
1,157
1,397
944
1,170
2022/23
1,641
827
1,234
7,661
5,129
6,395
1,080
676
878
475
292
383
1,718
927
1,322
1,635
755
1,195
1,413
944
1,178
2023/24
24
-38
-7
52
2
27
64
3
33
69
4
37
80
-3
39
90
-12
39
27
-15
6
variation %
2013/14 to
2023/24
Projections of Planted Area – Selected Regions - 2013/2014 to 2023/2024
50
1,103
1,323
4,940
5,019
8,616
1,313
2,575
3,250
53
48
51
1,352
753
1,053
1,958
665
1,312
5,330
4,717
5,024
5,464
4,783
5,124
10,179
8,510
9,345
1,548
1,298
1,423
2,763
2,144
2,454
4,278
3,022
3,650
lower limit
Up limit
RS
lower limit
Up limit
RS
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
RS
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
MT
lower limit
Up limit
BA
lower limit
Up limit
PR
lower limit
Up limit
MT
55
47
51
1,525
713
1,119
2,119
570
1,345
5,598
4,380
4,989
5,817
4,752
5,285
10,911
8,193
9,552
1,564
1,288
1,426
2,709
2,069
2,389
4,412
2,975
3,694
57
46
52
1,547
629
1,088
2,246
465
1,356
5,794
4,179
4,986
6,131
4,799
5,465
11,536
8,220
9,878
1,728
1,318
1,523
3,048
2,377
2,712
5,111
2,957
4,034
3,053
2,177
2,615
5,786
2,948
4,367
2,993
2,030
2,511
5,747
2,787
4,267
6,165
4,215
5,190
6,668
4,838
5,753
12,691
8,407
10,549
1,883
1,346
1,615
6,336
4,270
5,303
6,930
4,900
5,915
13,228
8,531
10,879
1,889
1,332
1,610
1,681
623
1,152
2,478
316
1,397
1,800
669
1,235
2,583
254
1,419
59
45
52
61
45
53
62
44
53
Grape - thousand hectares
1,665
707
1,186
2,370
392
1,381
Wheat - thousand hectares
5,978
4,155
5,067
6,413
4,824
5,619
12,133
8,307
10,220
1,737
1,303
1,520
Soybeans - thousand hectares
3,216
2,362
2,789
5,053
2,756
3,905
64
44
54
1,810
588
1,199
2,680
194
1,437
6,488
4,286
5,387
7,177
4,966
6,071
13,748
8,673
11,211
2,025
1,383
1,704
3,027
2,046
2,537
6,321
2,918
4,620
65
44
54
1,923
653
1,288
2,774
141
1,458
6,629
4,281
5,455
7,413
5,029
6,221
14,255
8,828
11,542
2,029
1,370
1,700
3,114
2,120
2,617
6,320
2,811
4,566
66
44
55
1,928
582
1,255
2,863
91
1,477
6,770
4,284
5,527
7,643
5,098
6,370
14,751
8,994
11,873
2,159
1,427
1,793
3,166
2,156
2,661
6,912
3,016
4,964
68
44
56
2,039
644
1,341
2,949
44
1,497
6,914
4,304
5,609
7,873
5,180
6,527
15,239
9,168
12,204
2,162
1,415
1,789
3,137
2,125
2,631
6,842
2,855
4,848
49
35
-13
11
85
-42
22
123
-97
13
40
-13
14
57
3
30
77
6
42
65
8
36
22
-17
2
111
-12
Note
Note
Information Center
0800 704 1995
www.agricultura.gov.br

Brazil 2013/2014 to 2023/2024

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