The 50th Anniversary of Hurricane “Dora” The Storm of Legend in

Transcription

The 50th Anniversary of Hurricane “Dora”
The Storm of Legend in Jacksonville!
Al Sandrik
National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office
Jacksonville, Florida
“Dora” Is the Stuff of Legend in North Florida
Monday, May 19, 2014
FL GHC - Infamous Florida Hurricanes
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“Dora” Is the Stuff of Legends in North Florida
Fernandina Beach, Amelia Island
Note the size of homes to wave action!
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Here’s One Such Legend
• Residents of Northeast Florida Are Brought Up
Cradle to Grave With One Eternal Truth:
Northeast Florida Is “Protected” From
Hurricanes By:
– The Gulf Stream
– The Westward Curvature Of The Coastline
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Then…How Do We Explain “Dora”?
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“Dora” Synoptic Set Up
500 mb 9/5/64
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500 mb 9/6/64
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500 mb 9/7/64
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500 mb 9/8/64
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500 mb 9/9/64
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“Dora” Landfall Synoptic Set Up
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500 mb 9/10/64
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500 mb 9/11/64
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500 mb 9/12/64
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500 mb 9/13/64
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So For All That Wind!
Before “Dora”
These are the ONLY
pictures of
significant wind
damage from
Brunswick, GA to St
Augustine!?!?
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“Donna” Four Years Earlier
San Marco Island - Goodland
Credit: State Archives of Florida, Florida Memory,
http://floridamemory.com/items/show/32709
But just four (4) years earlier, we’re not at a loss to find wind related damage
pictures from Hurricane “Donna!” Hum…
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So What Made “Dora” Bad?
Amelia Island, Florida
Atlantic Beach, Florida
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Jacksonville, Florida
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Saint Simons Island, GA U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers Photos
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August 2012
September 1964
So we’re seeing an Aerial picture of an
area that floods just from heavy
rainfall! Some of this may be over
wash and wave run up from the surf
but it isn’t surge!
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Rainfall Analysis
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Rainfall Results
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The “Lost Storm” Myth
An Interesting Myth That Perpetuates To This
Day Is That The Weather Bureau “Lost” The
Hurricane…A Look At Dora’s Radar Track
Provides A Clue As To Why This Got Started:
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Dora’s Radar Track
Remember This Nice,
Smoothed Track We
Looked At Earlier?
This Is What It Actually
Looked Like On Radar In Real
Time!
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Here’s Where The Confusion Crept In…
The Cyclonic Loops Created A
Delay In The Projected
Landfall…Giving Time For The
JAX Weather Bureau To Put
Out A Message To The Public
Asking Anyone In The Eye to
Notify Civil Defense With Any
Wind Or Pressure Readings.
This Was Interpreted By The
Public… Including One TV
Station… To Mean The
Weather Bureau Did Not
Know Where The Storm Was!
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And Then…The Inevitable Occurred…
Instead of Calling Civil Defense,
The Public Naturally Called The
TV Station When the Eye Came
Ashore…Allowing Them To Be
The First To Announce the
Landfall And Giving The
Impression That Their
Meteorologist Was The Only One
Who Actually Knew Where The
Storm Was!
While This Was Far From The
Truth…That Station To This Day
Has Done Nothing To Dispel That
Myth!
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Jacksonville Then and Now
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Summary
• With out a doubt, “Dora” was a
major surf impact and rainfall impact
to the Jacksonville Metro/North
Florida/Southeast Georgia areas!
• The question of whether the wind
speeds from “Dora” were “Category
2” or not, well that isn’t quite as
clear!
• Given the expansion of the
oceanfront infrastructure from
Savannah, Georgia to Flagler Beach,
Florida over the past 50 years, a
repeat event would be absolutely
devastating!
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The 50th Anniversary of Hurricane “Dora” The Storm of Legend in

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