Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Financial Incentives on Weight Loss

Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Financial Incentives on Weight Loss

RUHR
ECONOMIC PAPERS
Monika Reuss-Borst
Alfredo R. Paloyo
Arndt R. Reichert
Harald Tauchmann
Heterogeneous Causal Effects
of Financial Incentives on Weight Loss
Results of a Large Prospective
Randomized Trial
#383
Imprint
Ruhr Economic Papers
Published by
Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB), Department of Economics
Universitätsstr. 150, 44801 Bochum, Germany
Technische Universität Dortmund, Department of Economic and Social Sciences
Vogelpothsweg 87, 44227 Dortmund, Germany
Universität Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics
Universitätsstr. 12, 45117 Essen, Germany
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
Hohenzollernstr. 1-3, 45128 Essen, Germany
Editors
Prof. Dr. Thomas K. Bauer
RUB, Department of Economics, Empirical Economics
Phone: +49 (0) 234/3 22 83 41, e-mail: thomas.bauer@rub.de
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Leininger
Technische Universität Dortmund, Department of Economic and Social Sciences
Economics – Microeconomics
Phone: +49 (0) 231/7 55-3297, email: W.Leininger@wiso.uni-dortmund.de
Prof. Dr. Volker Clausen
University of Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics
International Economics
Phone: +49 (0) 201/1 83-3655, e-mail: vclausen@vwl.uni-due.de
Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt
RWI, Phone: +49 (0) 201/81 49 -227, e-mail: christoph.schmidt@rwi-essen.de
Editorial Office
Joachim Schmidt
RWI, Phone: +49 (0) 201/81 49 -292, e-mail: joachim.schmidt@rwi-essen.de
Ruhr Economic Papers #383
Responsible Editor: Christoph M. Schmidt
All rights reserved. Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg, Essen, Germany, 2012
ISSN 1864-4872 (online) – ISBN 978-3-86788-438-9
The working papers published in the Series constitute work in progress circulated to
stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed represent exclusively the
authors’ own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the editors.
Ruhr Economic Papers #383
Monika Reuss-Borst, Alfredo R. Paloyo, Arndt R. Reichert,
and Harald Tauchmann
Heterogeneous Causal Effects
of Financial Incentives on Weight Loss
Results of a Large Prospective Randomized Trial
Bibliografische Informationen
der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek
Die Deutsche Bibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über:
http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4419/86788438
ISSN 1864-4872 (online)
ISBN 978-3-86788-438-9
Monika Reuss-Borst, Alfredo R. Paloyo, Arndt R. Reichert,
and Harald Tauchmann1
Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Financial
Incentives on Weight Loss – Results of a
Large Prospective Randomized Trial
Abstract
In a randomized controlled trial involving 700 obese persons assigned to three
experimental groups, we test whether financial incentives have heterogeneous effects
on weight reduction. While two treatment groups obtain EUR 150 and EUR 300,
respectively, for achieving an individually-assigned target weight within four months,
a control group receives no such premium. The objective is to identify subgroups of
patients (male/female, natives/migrants, etc.) who respond more than others to
financial incentives. Our conclusions are the following: (1) monetary rewards effectively
induce obese individuals to reduce weight across all subgroups; (2) the magnitude
of the reward is relevant only for certain subgroups; (3) for people who do not lose
weight via conventional weight-loss intervention programs, financial incentives are an
effective supplement to induce weight loss.
JEL Classification: I10, I18, H23, C93
Keywords: Randomized experiment; financial incentives for weight loss; obesity;
subgroups; effect heterogeneity
November 2012
1 Monika Reuss-Borst, Rehaklinik Am Kurpark, Bad Kissingen; Alfredo R. Paloyo, RWI; Arndt
R. Reichert, RWI; Harald Tauchmann, RWI and CINCH. – The authors are grateful to the Pakt für
Forschung und Innovation for funding, and to Rüdiger Budde, Viktoria Frei, Karl-Heinz Herlitschke,
Klaus Höhner, Julia Jochem, Mark Kerßenfischer, Lionita Krepstakies, Claudia Lohkamp, Thomas
Michael, Carina Mostert, Stephanie Nobis, Adam Pilny, Margarita Pivovarova, Gisela Schubert, and
Marlies Tepaß for research assistance. We thank the medical rehabilitation clinics of the German
Pension Insurance of the federal state of Baden-Württemberg and the association of pharmacists
of Baden-Württemberg for their support of and dedication to this experiment. In particular, we
acknowledge the support of Susan Eube, Michael Falentin, Ina Hofferberth, Marina Humburg,
Silke Kohlenberg, Thomas Krohm, Max Lux, Tatjass Meier, Constanze Schaal, and Wolfgang Stiels.
Thanks are also due to Thomas K. Bauer, Christoph M. Schmidt, and Boris Augurzky, whose
support proved invaluable in the acquisition and execution of the experiment. – All correspondence
to Monika Reuss-Borst, RehaZentren Baden-Württemberg, Rehaklinik Am Kurpark, Kurhausstr. 9,
97688 Bad Kissingen, Germany, E-Mail: Monika.Reuss-Borst@rehaklinik-am-kurpark.de.
ͳ
Š‡ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ ‘ˆ ‘„‡•‹–›ǡ –‘‰‡–Š‡” ™‹–Š ‹–• …‘‘”„‹†‹–‹‡•ǡ ‹• …‘•‹†‡”‡† –‘ „‡ ‘‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡
–‘—‰Š‡•– …ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡• …‘ˆ”‘–‹‰ Š‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ…ƒ”‡ •›•–‡• ™‘”Ž†™‹†‡Ǥ ‡–™‡‡ ͳͻͺͲ ƒ† ʹͲͲͺǡ –Š‡
™‘”Ž†™‹†‡ ’”‡˜ƒŽ‡…‡ ‘ˆ ‘„‡•‹–› ‘”‡ –Šƒ †‘—„Ž‡†Ǥ › ʹͲͲͺǡ ƒ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡† ͳǤͶ „‹ŽŽ‹‘ ƒ†—Ž–•
‰Ž‘„ƒŽŽ› ™‡”‡ ‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š– ሺ ʹͷ ƒ† ൏ ͵Ͳ ‰Ȁʹሻ ƒ† ‘ˆ –Š‡•‡ǡ ͷͲʹ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ƒ†—Ž–• ™‡”‡
‘„‡•‡ሺ͵Ͳ‰Ȁʹሻሺ‹—…ƒ‡‡–ƒŽǤʹͲͲͳሻǤͳ–‹•’”‡†‹…–‡†–Šƒ–ǡ„›ʹͲͳͷǡʹǤ͵„‹ŽŽ‹‘ƒ†—Ž–•™‹ŽŽ
„‡‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š–ǡ™‹–Š‘”‡–Šƒ͹ͲͲ‹ŽŽ‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡‘„‡•‡Ǥ
„‡•‹–› ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™• ƒ •–”‘‰ •‘…‹‘‡…‘‘‹… ‰”ƒ†‹‡– ሺƒ— ƒ† —Š ʹͲͲͻሻǤ ‘” ‡šƒ’Ž‡ǡ ‘„‡•‹–›
”ƒ–‡•ƒ”‡‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰™‹–Šƒ‰‡ƒ†ƒ”‡‹˜‡”•‡Ž›…‘””‡Žƒ–‡†™‹–ŠŠ‹‰Š‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ‡˜‡Žƒ†‹…‘‡Ǥ
‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ •‹‰Ž‡ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ‘”‡ ‘ˆ–‡ Šƒ˜‡ ‘”ƒŽ ™‡‹‰Š– –Šƒ ƒ””‹‡†ǡ †‹˜‘”…‡†ǡ ‘” ™‹†‘™‡†
’‡”•‘•ǡƒ†ƒ†‘Ž‡•…‡–•™‹–Šƒ‹‰”ƒ–‹‘„ƒ…‰”‘—†Šƒ˜‡ƒ‰”‡ƒ–‡””‹•‘ˆ„‡…‘‹‰‘„‡•‡–Šƒ
ƒ–‹˜‡•ሺ—”–Šƒ†…Šƒˆˆ”ƒ–Š‘•ƒ”‹‘ʹͲͲ͹ሻǤ
Š‡…ƒ—•‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡—’•—”‰‡‘ˆ‘„‡•‹–›ƒ”‡™‡ŽŽǦ‘™ሺ‘•‹ʹͲͲͺሻǤŠ‡‹…”‡ƒ•‡‘ˆ‡‡”‰›Ǧ†‡•‡
…‘˜‡‹‡…‡ƒ†Ȁ‘”ˆƒ•–ˆ‘‘†•ǡ†‡…”‡ƒ•‡‹’Š›•‹…ƒŽƒ…–‹˜‹–›†—‡–‘‘”‡•‡†‡–ƒ”›Œ‘„•ǡ‘–‘”‹œ‡†
–”ƒ•’‘”–ǡ ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰ —”„ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘ǡ Žƒ„‘”Ǧ•ƒ˜‹‰ †‡˜‹…‡•ǡ „—– ƒŽ•‘ …Šƒ‰‡† Ž‡‹•—”‡ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•
ሺ–‡Ž‡˜‹•‹‘ǡ …‘’—–‡” ‰ƒ‡•ǡ ‡–…Ǥሻ ”‡•—Ž– ‹ ƒ ‹„ƒŽƒ…‡ ‘ˆ …ƒŽ‘”‹‡ ‹–ƒ‡ ƒ† ‡š’‡†‹–—”‡Ǥ • ƒ
”‡•—Ž– ‘ˆ –Š‡•‡ ƒ‹Ž› ‡˜‹”‘‡–ƒŽǡ •‘…‹ƒŽǡ ƒ† ’ƒ”–Ž› ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ …Šƒ‰‡•ǡ ‘„‡•‹–› ‹• ‘– ‘Ž› ƒ
’”‘„Ž‡‹™‡ŽŽǦ†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†Š‹‰ŠǦ‹…‘‡…‘—–”‹‡•„—–‹•ƒŽ•‘‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰‹†‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰…‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ
‡‹‰‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š–‘”‘„‡•‡‹…”‡ƒ•‡•–Š‡”‹••‘ˆ…‘”‘ƒ”›Š‡ƒ”–†‹•‡ƒ•‡ǡ‹•…Š‡‹…•–”‘‡ǡ†‹ƒ„‡–‡•
‡ŽŽ‹–—• –›’‡ ʹǡ •‘‡ …ƒ…‡”• •—…Š ƒ• ’‘•–‡‘’ƒ—•ƒŽ „”‡ƒ•– …ƒ…‡”ǡ ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ• ƒ ˜ƒ”‹‡–› ‘ˆ
—•…—Ž‘•‡Ž‡–ƒŽ†‹•‘”†‡”•ሺ•—…Šƒ•‘•–‡‘ƒ”–Š”‹–‹•ǡŽ‘™„ƒ…’ƒ‹ǡ ƒ†‰‘—–ሻǤ„‡•‹–› ‹•ǡƒ’ƒ”–ˆ”‘
•‘‹‰ǡ–Š‡‘•–‹’‘”–ƒ–’”‡˜‡–ƒ„Ž‡…ƒ—•‡‘ˆ’”‡ƒ–—”‡†‡ƒ–Š‹–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•ƒ†—”‘’‡Ǥ
ƒ…Š›‡ƒ”ǡʹǤͺ‹ŽŽ‹‘’‡‘’Ž‡†‹‡ƒ•ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆ„‡‹‰‘„‡•‡ሺʹͲͳʹሻǤ
Š‡‡…‘‘‹…„—”†‡‘ˆ‘„‡•‹–›‹•–”‡‡†‘—•Ǥ…”‡‡–ƒŽ‡†‹…ƒŽ‡š’‡†‹–—”‡•ƒ†–Š‡˜ƒŽ—‡‘ˆ
Ž‘•–’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–›ǡ‹…Ž—†‹‰ƒ„•‡–‡‡‹•ƒ†’”‡•‡–‡‡‹•ሺŠ‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ”‡Žƒ–‡†Ž‹‹–ƒ–‹‘•ƒ–™‘”ሻǡƒ•ƒ
”‡•—Ž–‘ˆ‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š–ƒ†‘„‡•‹–›ƒ”‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡†„›‹‡Ž•–‡‹‡–ƒŽǤሺʹͲͳͲሻ–‘”ƒ‰‡ˆ”‘̈́͵ʹʹˆ‘”
‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š– –‘ ̈́͸ǡͲͺ͹ ˆ‘” ‰”ƒ†‡ ‘„‡•‡ ‡Ǥ ‘” ™‘‡ǡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡• ”ƒ‰‡ ˆ”‘ ̈́͹ͻ͹ ˆ‘”
‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š– –‘ ̈́͸ǡ͸ͻͶ ˆ‘” ‰”ƒ†‡ Ǥ Š‡ –‘–ƒŽ ƒ—ƒŽ …‘•– ƒ––”‹„—–ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ ‘„‡•‹–› ƒ‘‰ ˆ—ŽŽǦ–‹‡
‡’Ž‘›‡‡• ‹• ̈́͹͵Ǥͳ „‹ŽŽ‹‘Ǥ †‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ™‹–Š ƒ ƒ„‘˜‡ ͵ͷ ”‡’”‡•‡– ͵͹’‡”…‡– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘„‡•‡
’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘ǡ „—– ƒ”‡ ”‡•’‘•‹„Ž‡ ˆ‘” ͸ʹ’‡”…‡– ‘ˆ ‡š…‡•• …‘•–•Ǥ ƒ–‡• ‡– ƒŽǤ ሺʹͲͲͺሻ ”‡’‘”– –Šƒ–
™‘”‡”• ™‹–Š ƒ ‡“—ƒŽ ‘” ƒ„‘˜‡ ͵ͷ ‡š’‡”‹‡…‡ –Š‡ ‰”‡ƒ–‡•– Š‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ”‡Žƒ–‡† ™‘” Ž‹‹–ƒ–‹‘•ǡ
„‡‹‰•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›Ž‡••’”‘†—…–‹˜‡–Šƒ‹Ž†Ž›‘„‡•‡™‘”‡”•Ǥ
Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡ –”‡ƒ–‡– ‘ˆ ‘„‡•‹–› ‹• ‘ˆ …”—…‹ƒŽ ‹’‘”–ƒ…‡ ‘– ‘Ž› ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘„‡•‡ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•
–Š‡•‡Ž˜‡•ǡ „—– ƒŽ•‘ ˆ‘” –Š‡ •‘…‹ƒŽ •›•–‡ ƒ† ‡’Ž‘›‡”•Ǥ ”‡ƒ–‡– ’”‘‰”ƒ• ƒ‹Ž› …‘•‹•– ‘ˆ
ƒ†˜‹…‡ ‘ †‹‡– ƒ† ’Š›•‹…ƒŽ ‡š‡”…‹•‡ –ƒ‹Ž‘”‡† –‘ –Š‡ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ’ƒ–‹‡–ǯ• ‡‡†• ƒ† ƒ› „‡ „‡•–
ͳ
‡”ƒ›ǡƒŠ‹‰ŠǦ‹…‘‡…‘—–”›™‹–ŠŠ‹‰ŠŽ›Ǧ†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†•‘…‹ƒŽ•›•–‡•ǡ͸͸’‡”…‡–‘ˆ–Š‡ƒŽ‡ƒ†ƒ„‘—–
ͷͲ’‡”…‡–‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‡ƒŽ‡ƒ†—Ž–’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘ƒ”‡‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š–ƒ……‘”†‹‰–‘ƒŽƒ”‰‡‡’‹†‡‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ•–—†›™‹–Š
ƒŽ‘•–ʹͲǡͲͲͲ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•ƒ‰‡†„‡–™‡‡ͳͶƒ†ͺͲ›‡ƒ”•ǤŠ‡’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ
‡”ƒƒ†—Ž–•„‡‹‰‘„‡•‡
ƒ‘—–•–‘‘”‡–ŠƒʹͲ’‡”…‡–ሺʹͲǤͷ’‡”…‡–ƒŽ‡•ǢʹͳǤʹ’‡”…‡–ˆ‡ƒŽ‡•ሻሺƒšǦ—„‡”•–‹–—–ʹͲͲͺሻǤ
Ͷ
…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹œ‡† ƒ• „‡Šƒ˜‹‘”ƒŽ ™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘•• ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘ ’”‘‰”ƒ•Ǥ Š‡ ˆ—†ƒ‡–ƒŽ ”‡“—‹”‡‡– ˆ‘”
•—……‡••‹•–‘ƒ…Š‹‡˜‡ƒ‡‡”‰›„ƒŽƒ…‡„‡–™‡‡…ƒŽ‘”‹‡••’‡–ǡ‘–Š‡‘‡Šƒ†ǡƒ†…ƒŽ‘”‹‡‹’—–
‘–Š‡‘–Š‡”ǤŽ–Š‘—‰Š„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”ƒŽ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘•Šƒ˜‡„‡‡’”‘˜‡–‘„‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‹˜ƒ”‹‘—••–—†‹‡•
ሺ’’‡Ž ‡– ƒŽǤ ʹͲͳͳሻǡ ‘•– ’”‘‰”ƒ• ƒ”‡ǡ ƒ– „‡•–ǡ ‘Ž› ‘†‡•–Ž› •—……‡••ˆ—Ž ƒ† †‘ ‘– ƒ††”‡•• ƒŽŽ
’ƒ–‹‡–•ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡Ž›ሺ‘Ǧ”‡•’‘†‡”•ሻǤ
Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰ ‹–‡”‡•– ‹ –Š‡ ‡˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‹’ƒ…– ‘ˆ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ ‘†‹ˆ‹‡”• ‘ˆ
„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”•—…Šƒ•ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•Ǥ‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•ƒ”‡™‹†‡Ž›ƒ’’Ž‹‡†‹–Š‡ˆ‘”‘ˆ
–ƒš‡•‘’”‘†—…–••—…Šƒ•ƒŽ…‘Š‘Ž‘”–‘„ƒ……‘ǤŠ‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡••‘ˆˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•‹–”‡ƒ–‡–
ˆ‘” ‘„‡•‹–› ƒ† ‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š– ‹• •–‹ŽŽ ƒ ƒ––‡” ‘ˆ †‡„ƒ–‡Ǥ ‘•– •–—†‹‡• ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ ƒ—ŽǦ„Š‘Š‹Š‡ ƒ†
˜‡‡ŽŽሺʹͲͲͺሻǡƒ†‡Ž–‘‡–ƒŽǤሺʹͲͳͳሻሻŠƒ˜‡‹••—‡•™‹–Š”‡•’‡…––‘•ƒ’Ž‡•‹œ‡ƒ†‡–Š‘†‘Ž‘‰›
ሺ•‡‡ ƒŽ‘›‘ ‡– ƒŽǤ ሺʹͲͳͳሻሻǤ •‹‰ ƒ Žƒ”‰‡ •ƒ’Ž‡ ƒ† ƒ ”ƒ†‘‹œ‡† †‡•‹‰ǡ —‰—”œ› ‡– ƒŽǤ ሺʹͲͳʹሻ
ˆ‘—† –Šƒ– ‘‡–ƒ”› ”‡™ƒ”†• †‘—„Ž‡ –Š‡ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ‘ˆ ‡†‹…ƒŽ ”‡Šƒ„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‘ ’ƒ–‹‡–• –Šƒ– ƒ”‡
ƒ†˜‹•‡†–‘”‡†—…‡„‘†›™‡‹‰Š–„›–Š‡‹”’Š›•‹…‹ƒ•Ǥ–”‡ƒ‹•—‘™™Š‡–Š‡”•’‡…‹ƒŽ•—„‰”‘—’•
‘ˆ ’ƒ–‹‡–• ሺƒ–‹˜‡•Ȁ‹‰”ƒ–•ǡ ‡–…Ǥሻ ƒ› ”‡•’‘† ‘”‡ –Šƒ ‘–Š‡”• –‘ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡•Ǥ – ƒ›
–—”‘—––Šƒ–‘‡›—†‰‡•‘Ž›’‡‘’Ž‡™‹–Š‡š‹•–‹‰ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ’”‘„Ž‡•‘”•’‡…‹ƒŽ•‘…‹ƒŽ‘”…—Ž–—”ƒŽ
„ƒ…‰”‘—† –‘™ƒ”† ƒ Š‡ƒŽ–Š‹‡” Ž‹ˆ‡ •–›Ž‡Ǥ ˆ –Š‹• ‹• –Š‡ …ƒ•‡ǡ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡• …‘—Ž† „‡ ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‡†
‘”‡ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡Ž›–‘’”‘„ƒ„Ž‡”‡•’‘†‡”•–‘ƒ‡†‹•„—”•‡‡–‘”‡…‘•–Ǧ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡Ǥ
ƒ•‡†‘‡š’‡”‹‡–ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒ‘ˆ͹ͲͲ‘„‡•‡‡†‹…ƒŽ”‡Šƒ„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‘’ƒ–‹‡–•ǡ–Š‡’”‡•‡–ƒƒŽ›•‹•™ƒ•
…‘†—…–‡†–‘–‡•––Š‡’”‹ƒ”›Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•–Šƒ–”ƒ†‘Ž›ƒ••‹‰‡†’‘•‹–‹˜‡ǡ‘—–’—–Ǧ‘”‹‡–‡†ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ
‹…‡–‹˜‡• ‡šŠ‹„‹– ƒ Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‘—• –”‡ƒ–‡– ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ ™‡‹‰Š–Ȅ‡ƒ•—”‡† ‹ ‹Ž‘‰”ƒ• Ž‘•–Ȅƒ• ƒ
ˆ—…–‹‘ ‘ˆ „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•Ǥ —” ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ‹• –‘ ‡šƒ‹‡ ™Š‡–Š‡” ‘‡–ƒ”› ”‡™ƒ”†• ˆ‘”
™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ƒ”‡‘”‡‹ˆŽ—‡–‹ƒŽ‘’ƒ–‹‡–•™‹–Š…‡”–ƒ‹„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•Ǥˆ–Š‹•–—”•‘—––‘
„‡ –”—‡ǡ ™‡ ƒ”‡ ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ ‹†‡–‹ˆ› ”‡•’‘†‡” ’ƒ–‹‡–• ƒ† ‘Ǧ”‡•’‘†‡”•Ǥ  †‡–‡”‹‹‰ ™Š‹…Š
…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• ƒ”‡ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–ǡ ™‡ –ƒ‡ –Š‡ ’‘‹– ‘ˆ ˜‹‡™ ‘ˆ ’—„Ž‹… ƒ†‹‹•–”ƒ–‘”• ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ •‘…‹ƒŽ Š‡ƒŽ–Š
‹•—”‡”•ሻ™Š‘Šƒ˜‡†ƒ–ƒ–Šƒ–ƒ”‡‘ˆ–‡Ž‹‹–‡†–‘„ƒ•‹…•‘…‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹…˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡••—…Šƒ•‰‡†‡”ƒ†
‡’Ž‘›‡–•–ƒ–—•ǡƒ†™‹–Š‘—–†‹”‡…–‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘‘‹…‘‡ƒ†™‡ƒŽ–ŠǤ
Š‡ ”‡ƒ•‘ ˆ‘” –Š‹• ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š ‹• –Šƒ– ƒ Žƒ”‰‡Ǧ•…ƒŽ‡ ‘‡–ƒ”› ‹…‡–‹˜‡ •…Š‡‡ ™‹ŽŽ ƒ–—”ƒŽŽ› „‡
ƒƒ‰‡†„›’—„Ž‹…‡–‹–‹‡•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡƒ••—‹‰–Šƒ––Š‡”‡‹••—„•–ƒ–‹ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›™‹–Š
”‡•’‡…– –‘ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•ǡ ‹– ‹• ƒ ’”‹‘”‹ —…Ž‡ƒ” ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡ Dz’—„Ž‹…Ž› ‘„•‡”˜ƒ„Ž‡dz
…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• ƒ”‡ ƒ…–—ƒŽŽ› ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–Ǥ – ‹• ‡–‹”‡Ž› ’‘••‹„Ž‡ –Šƒ– ‘–Š‡” …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• ’Žƒ› ƒ —…Š
•–”‘‰‡””‘Ž‡ˆ‘”–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡••‘ˆ‘‡–ƒ”›”‡™ƒ”†•Ǥ‘”‹•–ƒ…‡ǡŠ‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ”‡Žƒ–‡†„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”•ƒ›
„‡ „‡––‡” ’”‡†‹…–‘”• ‘ˆ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••ǡ ƒ†ǡ Š‡…‡ǡ ƒ› ‹ˆŽ—‡…‡ –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡•• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘‡–ƒ”›
”‡™ƒ”†• ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› ‘”‡ –Šƒ •‘…‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹… …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•Ǥ ‡ –Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ› …Žƒ••‹ˆ›
’ƒ–‹‡–•ƒ……‘”†‹‰–Š‡‹”Š‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ”‡Žƒ–‡†„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”‡šŠ‹„‹–‡†’”‹‘”–‘–Š‡‡š’‡”‹‡–Ǥ
‘’ƒ”‹•‘• ƒ”‡ ƒ†‡ „‡–™‡‡ ሺͳሻ”‡ƒ–‡– ”ͳ ሺ ͳͷͲሻ ƒ† ‘–”‘Ž ” ƒ†
ሺʹሻ”‡ƒ–‡– ”ʹ ሺ ͵ͲͲሻ ƒ† ‘–”‘Ž ” ˆ‘” –Š‡ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ ‹‡ •—„‰”‘—’ …ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•ǣ
ƒŽ‡Ȁˆ‡ƒŽ‡ǡ •‹‰Ž‡Ȁ‹ ƒ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ǡ Š‹‰Š ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ––ƒ‹‡–ȀŽ‘™ ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ––ƒ‹‡–ǡ
ƒ–‹˜‡Ȁ‹‰”ƒ–ǡ ‡’Ž‘›‡†Ȁ‘– ‡’Ž‘›‡†ǡ —”„ƒȀ”—”ƒŽ ሺ•‘…‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹… …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•ሻǡ ‰‘‘†
Š‡ƒŽ–ŠȀ„ƒ†Š‡ƒŽ–Šǡˆ”‡“—‡–Ž›…‘‘•ƒ–Š‘‡Ȁ•‡Ž†‘…‘‘•ƒ–Š‘‡ǡƒ†ƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–‘‡†‹‡–‹–Š‡Žƒ•–
ˆ‘—”›‡ƒ”•Ȁ‘†‹‡–‹–Š‡Žƒ•–ˆ‘—”›‡ƒ”•ሺŠ‡ƒŽ–Š›„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”ሻǤ‹…‡–Š‡‡„‡”•‘ˆ–Š‡…‘–”‘Ž‰”‘—’
™‡”‡ ƒŽ•‘ ƒ•‡† –‘ Ž‘•‡ ™‡‹‰Š– „› –Š‡‹” ’Š›•‹…‹ƒ• †—”‹‰ –Š‡‹” ‡†‹…ƒŽ ”‡Šƒ„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‘ •–ƒ›ǡ ƒ
ͷ
•‡…‘†ƒ”› ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ‹• –‘ †‡–‡”‹‡ ™Š‹…Š •—„‰”‘—’ ™‘—Ž† ‘– Šƒ˜‡ Ž‘•– ™‡‹‰Š– ™‹–Š‘—– –Š‡
ƒ††‹–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǥ
Š‡ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ †‡•…”‹„‡ ‘—” ‡š’‡…–ƒ–‹‘• ™‹–Š ”‡•’‡…– –‘ –Š‡ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹ –”‡ƒ–‡– ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ƒ…”‘••
„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ …‘˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‡•Ǥ ሺͳሻ ‡ƒŽ‡• ƒ› ”‡•’‘† ‘”‡ –‘ –Š‡ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡ „‡…ƒ—•‡ ‹– –›’‹…ƒŽŽ›
…‘•–‹–—–‡• ƒ Žƒ”‰‡” •Šƒ”‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” Žƒ„‘” ‹…‘‡Ǥ Š‡› ƒ› ƒŽ•‘ „‡ ”‡™ƒ”†‡† ‘”‡ ‹ –Š‡ Žƒ„‘”
ƒ”‡–ˆ‘”–Š‡‹”™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ǡ•‹…‡–Š‡…‘•–‘ˆ‘„‡•‹–›ˆ‘”ˆ‡ƒŽ‡•Šƒ•„‡‡•Š‘™–‘„‡Š‹‰Š‡”ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ
‘””‹•ሺʹͲͲ͹ሻǡ‡„Žƒ†—”…Š‹ሺʹͲͲͷሻǡƒ†—ŠŽƒ†‡—‡”ሺʹͲͲͻሻሻǤሺʹሻ‹‰Ž‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•ƒ›„‡
‘”‡ ˆŽ‡š‹„Ž‡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ —•‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” Ž‡‹•—”‡ –‹‡ǡ ™Š‹…Š ‡ƒ„Ž‡• –Š‡ –‘ „‡––‡” ”‡‰—Žƒ–‡ „‘–Š –Š‡‹”
’Š›•‹…ƒŽ ƒ…–‹˜‹–› ƒ† –Š‡‹” †‹‡–•Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ •‹‰Ž‡• ƒŽ•‘ Žƒ… –Š‡ ‡‘–‹‘ƒŽ •—’’‘”– ‘ˆ ƒ ’ƒ”–‡”
ሺƒ……‘‡ƒ†•”ƒ‡Žͳͻ͹ͺሻǤሺ͵ሻŠ‹‰Š…‘‰‹–‹˜‡ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ›„‡‡…‡••ƒ”›–‘—†‡”•–ƒ†–Š‡„‡‡ˆ‹–•
‘ˆ Ž‘•‹‰ ™‡‹‰Š–ǡ •‘ ™‡ ‡š’‡…– –Š‘•‡ ™‹–Š ƒ Š‹‰Š ‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ––ƒ‹‡– –‘ Ž‘•‡ ‘”‡ ™‡‹‰Š–
ሺƒŽŒ§”‡–ƒŽǤʹͲͲ͵ሻǤ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ„‡––‡”‡†—…ƒ–‡†‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•ƒ›Šƒ˜‡‡ƒ•‹‡”ƒ……‡••–‘‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘
–Šƒ–‹•”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–ˆ‘”•—……‡••ˆ—ŽŽ›Ž‘•‹‰„‘†›™‡‹‰Š–ǤሺͶሻƒ‰—ƒ‰‡„ƒ””‹‡”•ƒ›Š‹†‡”–Š‡„‡‡ˆ‹–•‘ˆ
”‡Šƒ„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‘ˆ‘”‘„‡•‡‹‰”ƒ–•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ•‹…‡‹‰”ƒ–•‡ƒ”ǡ‘ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ǡŽ‡••–Šƒƒ–‹˜‡•ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ
‡Š‡”ƒ† —†•–‡…ʹͲͳͳሻ–Š‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›Š‹‰Š‡” •Šƒ”‡‘ˆ–Š‡ ”‡™ƒ”†‹–Š‡‹” ‹…‘‡ƒ› ‹†—…‡
–Š‡ –‘ Ž‘•‡ ‘”‡ ™‡‹‰Š––Šƒ ƒ–‹˜‡•Ǥ ሺͷሻŠ‡‡’Ž‘›‡†ƒ› „‡ „‡––‡” ‡“—‹’’‡†–‘ Ž‘•‡ ™‡‹‰Š–ǡ
•‹…‡–Š‡›ƒ”‡‘”‡Ž‹‡Ž›–‘„‡„‡––‡”‡†—…ƒ–‡†ƒ†…ƒƒˆˆ‘”†–‘‡”‘ŽŽ‹ˆ‹–‡••…Žƒ••‡•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ
–Š‡‹”Ž‡‹•—”‡–‹‡…‘•–‹–—–‡•ƒ•ƒŽŽ‡”’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡‹”‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ–‹‡„—†‰‡–…‘’ƒ”‡†–‘–Š‘•‡™Š‘ƒ”‡
‘–‡’Ž‘›‡†ǡ™Š‹…ŠŽ‹‹–•–Š‡‘’’‘”–—‹–‹‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡–‘‡š’‡†…ƒŽ‘”‹‡•‘—–•‹†‡™‘”Ǥ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ
–Š‡ ‡š–”ƒ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ”‡™ƒ”† ƒ› ‘– „‡ •‡‡ ƒ• ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ƒ‘—– –‘ ‡ƒ” „› Ž‘•‹‰ ™‡‹‰Š–Ǥ ሺ͸ሻ
—–”‹–‹‘ƒŽŠƒ„‹–•‡šŠ‹„‹–ƒ•—„•–ƒ–‹ƒŽ”—”ƒŽ–—”„ƒ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–‹ƒŽǤŠ‘—‰Š‹Šƒ„‹–ƒ–•‘ˆ—”„ƒƒ”‡ƒ•
ƒ› „‡ ‡š’‘•‡† –‘ —Š‡ƒŽ–Š‹‡” ˆ‘‘† …Š‘‹…‡• ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ ˆƒ•– ˆ‘‘†ሻǡ –Š‡ †‹‡– ‹ ”—”ƒŽ ƒ”‡ƒ• ‹• •–‹ŽŽ ‘”‡
‡ƒ–Ǧ‘”‹‡–‡†‹
‡”ƒ›Ǥƒ††‹–‹‘ǡ—”„ƒƒ”‡ƒ•ƒˆˆ‘”†„‡––‡”‡†—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‘’’‘”–—‹–‹‡•ǡ™Š‹…Š
ƒ›‹–‹‰ƒ–‡–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ–Š‡’”‡˜ƒŽ‡…‡‘ˆŒ—ˆ‘‘†Ǥ
‘‰ –Š‡ Š‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ”‡Žƒ–‡† ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ ሺ͹ሻ –Š‘•‡ ‹ ’‘‘” Š‡ƒŽ–Š ƒ”‡ ƒ– ƒ †‹•ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡ „‡…ƒ—•‡ –Š‡›
’”‘„ƒ„Ž› ˆƒ…‡ Ž‡•• …Š‘‹…‡• ™‹–Š ”‡•’‡…– –‘ –Š‡ –›’‡ ‘ˆ ˆ‘‘† –Š‡› ƒ”‡ ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ ‡ƒ–ǡ ƒ† ƒ› ƒŽ•‘ „‡
’Š›•‹…ƒŽŽ› Ž‹‹–‡† ˆ”‘ ‡š‡”…‹•‡Ǥ ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ ‘„‡•‡ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ‹ ’‘‘” Š‡ƒŽ–Š ƒ”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ „‡‡ˆ‹–
‘”‡ˆ”‘Ž‘•‹‰™‡‹‰Š––Šƒ–Š‡‹”Š‡ƒŽ–Š‹‡”…‘—–‡”’ƒ”–ǤŠ—•ǡ•–ƒ›‹‰‘„‡•‡†‡•’‹–‡•‡˜‡”‡Š‡ƒŽ–Š
’”‘„Ž‡•ƒ›‹†‹…ƒ–‡ƒŽƒ…‘ˆ•‡ŽˆǦ…‘–”‘ŽǤሺͺሻŠ‘•‡™Š‘…‘‘ƒ–Š‘‡ƒ”‡‹„‡––‡”…‘–”‘Ž‘ˆ–Š‡
‹‰”‡†‹‡–• –Šƒ– ‰‘ ‹–‘–Š‡‹”ˆ‘‘†ǡ ™Š‹…Š …‘—Ž† ‡ƒ–Šƒ– ™‡‹‰Š– …‘–”‘Žƒ› „‡ ‡ƒ•‹‡”ˆ‘”–Š‡Ǥ
ƒ•Šƒ† ƒ† ”‘••ƒ ሺʹͲͲͶሻǡ ˆ‘” ‡šƒ’Ž‡ǡ ”‡’‘”– –Šƒ– ‡ƒ–‹‰ ‘—– ƒ– ˆƒ•–Ǧˆ‘‘† ƒ† ˆ—ŽŽǦ•‡”˜‹…‡
”‡•–ƒ—”ƒ–• ƒ”‡ •‡‡‹‰Ž› –Š‡ ‘•– ‹’‘”–ƒ– ˆƒ…–‘”• ‹ ‡š’Žƒ‹‹‰ –Š‡ ”‹•‡ ‹ ‘„‡•‹–›Ǥ ሺͻሻ Š‘•‡
™Š‘Šƒ˜‡—†‡”‰‘‡ƒ†‹‡–ƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–‘…‡†—”‹‰–Š‡Žƒ•–ˆ‘—”›‡ƒ”•„—–‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••”‡ƒ‹‘„‡•‡
ƒ› ‹†‹…ƒ–‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡•‡ ƒ”‡ ’‡‘’Ž‡ ™‹–Š •‡ŽˆǦ…‘–”‘Ž ‹••—‡•Ǥ ‡ –Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ ‡š’‡…– –Š‡ –‘ ”‡•’‘†
Ž‡••–‘ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•Ǥ
ʹ
Š‡ ”ƒ†‘‹œ‡† …‘–”‘ŽŽ‡† –”‹ƒŽ ‹• ˆ—†‡† „› –Š‡ ƒ– ˆò” ‘”•…Š—‰ —† ‘˜ƒ–‹‘ ƒ†
ƒ†‹‹•–‡”‡†„›–Š‡ Š‡‹‹•…ŠǦ‡•–ˆ¡Ž‹•…Š‡••–‹–—–ˆò”‹”–•…Šƒˆ–•ˆ‘”•…Š—‰ ሺሻǤƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•
™‡”‡‹˜‹–‡†–‘‡”‘ŽŽ‹–Š‡‡š’‡”‹‡–†—”‹‰–Š‡ˆ‹ƒŽ™‡‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹”•–ƒ›‹ƒ”‡Šƒ„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‘…Ž‹‹…
‹ –Š‡ •–ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ƒ†‡Ǧò”––‡„‡”‰ ሺሻ ‹ ‡”ƒ›Ǥ Š‡ •–—†› ’”‘–‘…‘Ž ™ƒ• ƒ’’”‘˜‡† „› –Š‡
͸
‡–Š‹…• …‘‹••‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ Šƒ„‡” ‘ˆ ‡†‹…ƒŽ ‘…–‘”• ‘ˆ Ǥ †‡–ƒ‹Ž‡† †‡•…”‹’–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ –”‹ƒŽ ‹•
ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡‡Ž•‡™Š‡”‡ሺ—‰—”œ›‡–ƒŽǤʹͲͳʹሻ„—–™‡„”‹‡ˆŽ›†‡•…”‹„‡‹–Š‡”‡Ǥ
Š‡‡Ž‹‰‹„‹Ž‹–›…”‹–‡”‹ƒ‹˜‘Ž˜‡†Šƒ˜‹‰ƒ„‘†›Ǧƒ••‹†‡š‘ˆ͵Ͳ‘”ƒ„‘˜‡ƒ–ƒ†‹••‹‘ǡƒ‰‡†„‡–™‡‡
ͳͺ ƒ† ͹ͷ ›‡ƒ”•ǡ ƒ† ƒ ”‡•‹†‡– ‘ˆ Ǥ Š‡ ‡š…Ž—•‹‘ …”‹–‡”‹ƒ ‹…Ž—†‡†ǡ ƒ‘‰ ‘–Š‡”•ǡ ’”‡‰ƒ…›ǡ
’•›…Š‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ ƒ† ‡ƒ–‹‰ †‹•‘”†‡”•ǡ –—‘” †‹•‡ƒ•‡ ™‹–Š‹ –Š‡ Žƒ•– ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”•ǡ ƒ† ƒŽ…‘Š‘Ž ‘” †”—‰
ƒ„—•‡Ǥ ‡–™‡‡ ƒ”…Š ʹͲͳͲ ƒ† —‰—•– ʹͲͳͳǡ ƒ –‘–ƒŽ ‘ˆ ͹ͲͲ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ™‡”‡ ”‡…”—‹–‡†ǡ –Š‘—‰Š
–™‘ ™‡”‡ Žƒ–‡” ‡š…Ž—†‡† „‡…ƒ—•‡ ‘ˆ ’”‡‰ƒ…› ƒ† …ƒ…‡”Ǥ Š‡ ˆŽ‘™ ‘ˆ –Š‡ •–—†› ‹• †‡’‹…–‡† ‹
‹‰—”‡ͳǤ
Figure 1: Flow of the Study
—–…‘‡•™‡”‡ƒ•…‡”–ƒ‹‡†„›–”ƒ‹‡†‡†‹…ƒŽ’‡”•‘‡Žǡ™Š‘‡ƒ•—”‡†–Š‡Š‡‹‰Š–ƒ†™‡‹‰Š–‘ˆ
’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•Ǥ †‡–ƒ‹Ž‡† “—‡•–‹‘ƒ‹”‡ ™ƒ• ƒ†‹‹•–‡”‡† –‘ …‘ŽŽ‡…– ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ •‘…‹‘‡…‘‘‹…
„ƒ…‰”‘—† ƒ† ‘–Š‡” Š‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ”‡Žƒ–‡† ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•Ǥ – …Ž‹‹… †‹•…Šƒ”‰‡ǡ –Š‡ ’Š›•‹…‹ƒ ‹ …Šƒ”‰‡ •‡– ƒ
‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘•• –ƒ”‰‡– –Šƒ– Šƒ† –‘ „‡ ”‡ƒŽ‹œ‡† ™‹–Š‹ –Š‡ •—„•‡“—‡– ˆ‘—” ‘–Š•Ǥ
ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•™‡”‡•–”ƒ–‹ˆ‹‡†„›…Ž‹‹…ǡƒ†”ƒ†‘‹œƒ–‹‘™ƒ•…ƒ””‹‡†‘—–™‹–Š‹‡ƒ…Š•–”ƒ–—ǤŠ‡
–Š”‡‡ ‡š’‡”‹‡–ƒŽ ƒ”• ‹…Ž—†‡ ƒ …‘–”‘Ž ‰”‘—’ ƒ† –™‘ –”‡ƒ–‡– ‰”‘—’•ǡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ Žƒ––‡”
…‘•‹•–‹‰ ‘ˆ ƒ ‰”‘—’ ˆƒ…‹‰ ƒ ͳͷͲ ”‡™ƒ”† ƒ† ƒ‘–Š‡” ‰”‘—’ ™‹–Š ƒ …‘””‡•’‘†‹‰ ͵ͲͲ
”‡™ƒ”†ˆ‘”ƒ…Š‹‡˜‹‰–Š‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ‹œ‡†™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘••–ƒ”‰‡–Ǥƒ–‹‡–•ƒ••‹‰‡†–‘–Š‡–”‡ƒ–‡–‰”‘—’
”‡…‡‹˜‡†‘”‡™ƒ”†‹ˆ–Š‡‹”™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••™ƒ•Ž‡••–ŠƒͷͲ’‡”…‡–‘ˆ–Š‡‹”–ƒ”‰‡–™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••Ǥ…‡–Š‡
–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†ͷͲ’‡”…‡–Šƒ•„‡‡”‡ƒ…Š‡†ǡ–Š‡ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ”‡™ƒ”†™ƒ•†‹•„—”•‡†’”‘’‘”–‹‘ƒŽŽ›ǡ™‹–Š–Š‡
ˆ—ŽŽƒ‘—–’ƒ‹†‘—–‘Ž›‹ˆ–Š‡™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘••–ƒ”‰‡–™ƒ•ƒ…Š‹‡˜‡†‘”‡š…‡‡†‡†Ǥ…‡–Š‡‡š’‡”‹‡–
™ƒ• —†‡”™ƒ›ǡ ™‡‹‰ŠǦ‹• ™‡”‡ …‘†—…–‡† ‹ †‡•‹‰ƒ–‡† ’Šƒ”ƒ…‹‡• —•‹‰ ƒ ™‡‹‰Š‹‰ •…ƒŽ‡
‘’‡”ƒ–‡†„›ƒ’Šƒ”ƒ…‹•––‘ƒ˜‘‹†•‡ŽˆǦ”‡’‘”–‡†™‡‹‰Š–‡ƒ•—”‡•Ǥ
—–…‘‡•ƒ”‡‡šƒ‹‡†„ƒ•‡†‘–Š‡‹–‡–‹‘Ǧ–‘Ǧ–”‡ƒ–’”‹…‹’Ž‡™‹–Š–Š‡ƒ••—’–‹‘–Šƒ–†”‘’‘—–•
”‡–—” –‘ „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡Ǥ ‡ƒ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ሺ‹ ‰ሻ ™ƒ• …ƒŽ…—Žƒ–‡† ˆ‘” –Š‡ –™‘ –”‡ƒ–‡– ƒ”• ƒ† –Š‡
…‘–”‘Žƒ”ǤŠ‡”‡•—Ž–ˆ‘”–Š‡…‘–”‘Ž‰”‘—’ ‹• ‹–‡”’”‡–‡†ƒ•„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••–Šƒ–…ƒ‘–„‡
ƒ––”‹„—–‡†–‘ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ”‡™ƒ”†•ǤŠ‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡„‡–™‡‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••‹–Š‡–”‡ƒ–‡–ƒ”•
͹
ƒ† „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ‹• ”‡‰ƒ”†‡† ƒ• ‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǧ‹†—…‡† ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••Ǥ ”‡ƒ–‡– ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ƒ”‡ –Š—•
‡•–‹ƒ–‡†ƒ•–Š‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡ ‹™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••„‡–™‡‡–Š‡–”‡ƒ–‡–ƒ”•ƒ†–Š‡…‘–”‘Žƒ”‘ˆ–Š‡
‡š’‡”‹‡–Ǥ‘•‡“—‡–Ž›ǡ‹ƒ••‡••‹‰–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•‘™‡‹‰Š–
Ž‘•• ƒ……‘”†‹‰ –‘ „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•ǡ–Š‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ ƒ†‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǧ‹†—…‡† ™‡‹‰Š–
Ž‘••™ƒ•…‘†—…–‡†‘˜‡”–Š‡•—„‰”‘—’…ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•‘–‹˜ƒ–‡†ƒ„‘˜‡ǤŽŽ‡•–‹ƒ–‡•ƒ”‡’”‡•‡–‡†™‹–Š
–Š‡‹”ƒ••‘…‹ƒ–‡†ͻͷǦ’‡”…‡–…‘ˆ‹†‡…‡‹–‡”˜ƒŽ•Ǥ
ŽŽ ƒ—–Š‘”• …‘–”‹„—–‡† ‹ †”ƒˆ–‹‰ –Š‡ ƒ—•…”‹’–Ǥ ƒ–ƒ ’”‡’ƒ”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ƒƒ‰‡‡–ǡ ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ•
•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ ƒƒŽ›•‡•ǡ ™‡”‡ …‘†—…–‡† ƒ– –Š‡ —•‹‰ –ƒ–ƒ ሺ‡Ž‡ƒ•‡ ͳʹሻǤ Š‡ ƒ—–Š‘”• …Žƒ‹
”‡•’‘•‹„‹Ž‹–›ˆ‘”–Š‡…‘’Ž‡–‡‡••ƒ†˜‡”ƒ…‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡†ƒ–ƒƒ†•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽƒƒŽ›•‡•Ǥ
͵
͵Ǥͳ
ƒ•‡Ž‹‡…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•
ˆ–Š‡͹ͲͲ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•–Šƒ–™‡”‡”ƒ†‘‹œ‡†ǡʹ͵Ͷ™‡”‡ƒ••‹‰‡†–‘–Š‡…‘–”‘Ž‰”‘—’ǡʹ͵͹–‘–Š‡
ͳͷͲ ‰”‘—’ǡ ƒ† ʹʹͻ –‘ –Š‡ ͵ͲͲ ‰”‘—’Ǣ –™‘ ™‡”‡ ‡˜‡–—ƒŽŽ› ‡š…Ž—†‡† ˆ”‘ –Š‡ •ƒ’Ž‡ǡ
™Š‹Ž‡ƒ–‘–ƒŽ‘ˆͳ͹ͺ‹••‡†–Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™Ǧ—’™‡‹‰ŠǦ‹ሺ‹Ǥ‡Ǥǡʹͷ’‡”…‡–†”‘’’‡†‘—–ሻǢ•‡‡‹‰—”‡ͳǤŠ‡
ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ –ƒ”‰‡– ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ‹• ͸Ǥͷ’‡”…‡– ˆ”‘ ƒ •–ƒ”–‹‰ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ™‡‹‰Š– ‘ˆ ͳͳ͵ ‰Ǥ ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•
‡ƒ•—”‡† ƒ– „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ ™‡”‡ •Š‘™ –‘ „‡ „ƒŽƒ…‡† „‡–™‡‡ ‰”‘—’• ሺƒ„Ž‡ͳሻǤ „‘—– ƒ –Š‹”† ‘ˆ –Š‡
•ƒ’Ž‡ƒ”‡™‘‡ƒ†ƒ„‘—–ͺͲ’‡”…‡–™‡”‡„‘”‹
‡”ƒ›ሺƒ–‹˜‡•ሻǤŠ‡‡ƒƒ‰‡‹•Ͷͺ›‡ƒ”•
ƒ† ‘•– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ƒ”‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡†Ǥ ŽŽ ‡ƒ …‘’ƒ”‹•‘• „‡–™‡‡ ‰”‘—’• ‡š…‡’– –Š‡
’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ
‡”ƒƒ–‹˜‡•ƒ†–Š‡’‡”…‡–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡‡’Ž‘›‡†ˆ‘”–Š‡͵ͲͲ‰”‘—’‹†‹…ƒ–‡
…‘˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‡„ƒŽƒ…‡ƒ–„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡Ǥ
‡ ”‡‰ƒ”† ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ƒ• ‡’Ž‘›‡† ‹ˆ –Š‡› ƒ”‡ ‡‹–Š‡” ˆ—ŽŽǦ ‘” ’ƒ”–Ǧ–‹‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡†ǡ ƒ”‰‹ƒŽŽ›
‡’Ž‘›‡†ǡ ‘” Šƒ˜‡ ‘– ’”‘˜‹†‡† ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ –Š‡ –›’‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‡’Ž‘›‡–Ǥ ‹‰Š ‡†—…ƒ–‡†
’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ‡‹–Š‡” ˆ‹‹•Š‡† –Š‡ ͳͲ–Š ‰”ƒ†‡ ‘ˆ •‡…‘†ƒ”› •…Š‘‘Ž ‘” Š‘Ž† ƒ —‹˜‡”•‹–›Ǧ‡–”ƒ…‡
†‹’Ž‘ƒ ሺ„‹–—”ሻǤ †‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• ™‹–Š ƒ ‰‘‘† •‡ŽˆǦ”‡’‘”–‡† Š‡ƒŽ–Š •–ƒ–—• ƒ•™‡”‡† –Š‡ “—‡•–‹‘ ‘
’‡”…‡‹˜‡† Š‡ƒŽ–Š ™‹–Š ‰‘‘†‘” ˜‡”›‰‘‘†ሺ–Š‡ ‘–Š‡””‡•’‘•‡ ‘’–‹‘•™‡”‡ •ƒ–‹•ˆƒ…–‘”›ǡ’‘‘”ǡƒ†
„ƒ†ሻǤ ‘•‹†‡”‹‰ –Š‡ ‹…‹†‡…‡ ‘ˆ ƒ ƒ…—–‡ †‹•‡ƒ•‡ǡ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ™‡”‡ ƒ•‡† ™Š‡–Š‡” ƒ› ‘ˆ –Š‡
ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ ƒ…—–‡†‹•‡ƒ•‡• ‘……—””‡† †—”‹‰–Š‡ Žƒ•–ˆ‘—”™‡‡•ǣ †‹ƒ””Š‡ƒǡ ‰ƒ•–”‘‹–‡•–‹ƒŽ ‹ˆ‡…–‹‘•ǡ
‹ˆŽ—‡œƒǡ‘–Š‡”˜‹”ƒŽ‹ˆ‡…–‹‘•ǡŠ‡ƒ˜›…‘Ž†ǡƒ†ƒ›‘–Š‡”ƒ…—–‡†‹•‡ƒ•‡ǤŠ‡…‹–›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡‹†‹…ƒ–‡•
‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ• Ž‹˜‹‰ ‹ —‹…‹’ƒŽ‹–‹‡• –Šƒ– …‘˜‡” ‘”‡ –Šƒ ‘‡ …‘†‡Ǥ —”–Š‡”‘”‡ǡ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•
™‡”‡ƒ•‡†™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡›ˆ”‡“—‡–Ž›…‘‘ƒ–Š‘‡„›–Š‡•‡Ž˜‡•ƒ†™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡›ƒ†‡ƒ›‡ˆˆ‘”–
ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡƒ†‹‡–ሻ–‘Ž‘•‡™‡‹‰Š–†—”‹‰–Š‡Žƒ•–ˆ‘—”›‡ƒ”•Ǥ
ͺ
Table 1: Descriptive Statistics (Mean Values and Standard Deviations at Baseline)
All
Control
EUR 150
EUR 300
Initial weight (before rehab, kg)
117 ± 23
115 ± 22
118 ± 24
118 ± 24
Starting weight (after rehab, kg)
113 ± 22
111 ± 20
114 ± 23
114 ± 23
Target weight loss (%)
6.5 ± 1.2
6.4 ± 0.9
6.5 ± 1.3
6.5 ± 1.4
Bad Kissingen (%)
33.4
32.2
35.6
32.3
Bad Mergentheim (%)
41.7
41.6
40.7
42.8
Glottertal (%)
6.60
7.30
5.90
6.60
Isny (%)
18.3
18.9
17.8
18.3
Female (%)
32.2
29.1
31.3
36.3
Age (years)
48 ± 9
48 ± 10
48 ± 9
47 ± 9
Single (%)
20.4
18.5
20.9
21.8
Married (%)
61.1
63.1
61.3
59.0
Native (%)
78.9
79.5
75.1
82.2+
Employed (%)
82.4
85.8
81.7
79.5*
34.5
35.2
36.0
32.3
High educational attainment (%)
2
Population density (1000/km )
7.5 ± 7.3
6.9 ± 7.1
7.0 ± 7.8
7.3 ± 7.1
City (%)
23.4
22.1
23.0
25.1
Good self-reported health (%)
35.1
30.9
37.0
36.8
Acute disease within last 4 weeks (%)
73.0
73.8
73.9
71.3
Blood Sugar Level (mmol/l)
188 ± 37
188 ± 37
186 ± 37
200 ± 38
Cholesterol Level (mmol/l)
101 ± 24
100 ± 23
102 ± 25
101 ± 24
Cooking at home frequently (%)
78.1
78.6
80.4
75.2
57.2
56.9
54.7
60.0
At least one diet during last 4 years (%)
+
* Deviation from control group significant at 5%. Deviation from EUR 150 group significant at 5%. ± Standard deviations of
binary variables omitted. Bad Kissingen, Bad Mergentheim, Isny, and Glottertal refer to the locations of the four rehabilitation
clinics. Covariate balance is warranted by respective tests (Hansen and Bowers 2008).
ͻ
͵Ǥʹ
˜‡”ƒ‰‡–”‡ƒ–‡–‡ˆˆ‡…–
Š‡”‡•—Ž–•‹‹‰—”‡ʹ•Š‘™–Š‡‡ƒ™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ˆ‘”‡ƒ…Š‡š’‡”‹‡–ƒŽƒ”‹–Š‡–”‹ƒŽǤ‡’Žƒ…‹‰
–Š‡‹••‹‰˜ƒŽ—‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡†”‘’‘—–•™‹–Š–Š‡‹”‹‹–‹ƒŽ˜ƒŽ—‡•ǡ‹–‹••Š‘™–Šƒ––Š‡…‘–”‘Ž‰”‘—’Ž‘•–
ƒŽ‘•–ʹ‰ǡ™Š‹Ž‡ –Š‡–™‘–”‡ƒ–‡–ƒ”• Ž‘•–„‡–™‡‡ƒ„‘—–Ͷ –‘ ͷ‰ሺŽ‡ˆ– ’ƒ‡Ž‘ˆ –Š‡ ˆ‹‰—”‡ሻǤ
‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••‹„‘–Š–”‡ƒ–‡–ƒ”•™ƒ••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›Š‹‰Š‡”–Šƒ‹–Š‡…‘–”‘Žƒ”•ǡ”‡˜‡ƒŽ‹‰–Šƒ–
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡• …ƒ ‘–‹˜ƒ–‡ ’‡‘’Ž‡ –‘ Ž‘•‡ ™‡‹‰Š– •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›Ǥ •‹‰ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘Ž› ‘
–Š‘•‡™Š‘…‘’Ž‡–‡†–Š‡•–—†›ሺ…‘’Ž‡–‡†Ǧ…ƒ•‡‘”’‡”Ǧ’”‘–‘…‘ŽƒƒŽ›•‹•ሻ•Š‘™•ƒ•‹‹Žƒ”™‡‹‰Š–Ǧ
Ž‘••’ƒ––‡”ǡ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡‡ƒ™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••‹••Ž‹‰Š–Ž›Š‹‰Š‡”ˆ‘”ƒŽŽ‰”‘—’•ሺ”‹‰Š–’ƒ‡Ž‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‹‰—”‡ሻǤ
Figure 2: Mean Weight Change in Body Weight by Experimental Group
Š‡–™‘’ƒ‡Ž•‘ˆ–Š‡‰”ƒ’Š‹ŽŽ—•–”ƒ–‡–Š‡™‡ŽŽǦ‘™•‡Ž‡…–‹‘„‹ƒ•‘‡‡š’‡…–•–‘‘„•‡”˜‡‹’‡”Ǧ
’”‘–‘…‘Ž ƒƒŽ›•‡•Ǥ Š‹• …ƒ ‘……—” •‹…‡ ‹– ‹• ’”‘„ƒ„Ž‡ –Šƒ– –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘ ˆ‘”‡•‡‡ –Š‡•‡Ž˜‡• ƒ•
„‡‡ˆ‹––‹‰–Š‡‘•–ˆ”‘–Š‡–”‡ƒ–‡–™‹ŽŽŠƒ˜‡ƒŠ‹‰Š‡”Ž‹‡Ž‹Š‘‘†‘ˆ…‘’Ž‡–‹‰–Š‡•–—†›ǤŠ‹•
‡†‘‰‡‡‹–›‹ •ƒ’Ž‡ ƒ––”‹–‹‘ ƒ‡•–Š‡ ƒƒŽ›•‹• „ƒ•‡† ‘–Š‡ ‹–‡–‹‘Ǧ–‘Ǧ–”‡ƒ–’”‹…‹’Ž‡‘”‡
”‡Ž‹ƒ„Ž‡Ǥ
ͳͲ
͵Ǥ͵
”‡ƒ–‡–Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›
Š‡‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘”‡•—Ž–•ˆ‘”‡ƒ„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡™‡‹‰Š–…Šƒ‰‡ሺȽሻƒ†ˆ‘”‡ƒ‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǧ‹†—…‡†™‡‹‰Š–
…Šƒ‰‡ ሺδሻǡ ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ƒ––”‹„—–ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ –Š‡ ‘‡–ƒ”› ”‡™ƒ”†•ǡ ƒ”‡ ’”‡•‡–‡† ‹
ƒ„Ž‡ʹǤ Š‡ –ƒ„Ž‡ ˆ—”–Š‡” †‹•’Žƒ›• –Š‡ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡•‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ƒ† –Š‡ ‡“—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ
„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•‹…‡–‹˜‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•„‡–™‡‡–Š‡•—„‰”‘—’•‘ˆ‹–‡”‡•–Ǥ
˜‡”ƒŽŽǡ –Š‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡• ˆ‘” –Š‡ „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ ™‡‹‰Š– …Šƒ‰‡ ”ƒ‰‡ ˆ”‘ െͲǤͳ͹ͻ ‰ ሺͻͷΨ ሾെͳǤͺͶ͵ǡ
൅ͳǤͶͺͷሿሻˆ‘”–Š‘•‡™Š‘ƒ”‡‘–‡’Ž‘›‡†–‘െʹǤͶʹ͹‰ሺͻͷΨሾെ͵ǤͶͻ͸ǡെͳǤ͵ͷͺሿሻˆ‘”–Š‘•‡™Š‘
Šƒ˜‡ ‘– —†‡”‰‘‡ ƒ †‹‡– ‹ –Š‡ Žƒ•– ˆ‘—” ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ Š‡ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡• ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǧ‹†—…‡† ™‡‹‰Š–
…Šƒ‰‡”ƒ‰‡ˆ”‘െͲǤͻ͸ʹ‰ሺͻͷΨሾെʹǤ͸͸ͻǡ൅ͲǤ͹Ͷͷሿሻˆ‘”—”„ƒ…‹–‹œ‡ሺͳͷͲሻ–‘െͶǤʹ͹ʹ‰
ሺͻͷΨሾെ͸Ǥ͵ͺͷǡെʹǤͳͷͻሿሻˆ‘”•‹‰Ž‡•ሺ͵ͲͲሻǤŽ›‹–Š”‡‡‹•–ƒ…‡•ሺ‹‰”ƒ–•ǡ–Š‘•‡Ž‹˜‹‰‹
—”„ƒƒ”‡ƒ•ǡƒ†–Š‘•‡™Š‘Šƒ˜‡‘–—†‡”‰‘‡ƒ†‹‡–‹–Š‡Žƒ•–ˆ‘—”›‡ƒ”•ሻ†‘™‡‘–‘„•‡”˜‡–Š‡
ͳͷͲ –‘ ‹†—…‡ ƒ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽŽ› •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ሺ‹†‹…ƒ–‡† „› ȗሻǤ …”‡ƒ•‹‰ –Š‡ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ
‹…‡–‹˜‡ –‘ ͵ͲͲǡ Š‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ”‡•—Ž–• ‹ ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ˆ‘” ƒŽŽ –Š‡•‡ ‰”‘—’•Ǥ ͳͷͲ
‹†—…‡†–Š‡Š‹‰Š‡•–™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ˆ‘”–Š‘•‡™Š‘•‡Ž†‘…‘‘ƒ–Š‘‡ሺെ͵Ǥ͵͹Ͷ‰ǡͻͷΨሾെͷǤͲͶʹǡ
െͳǤ͹Ͳ͹ሿሻǡ™Š‹Ž‡͵ͲͲ–”ƒ•Žƒ–‡†–‘ƒš‹—‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǧ‹†—…‡†™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ˆ‘”•‹‰Ž‡•ሺെͶǤʹ͹ʹ
‰ǡͻͷΨሾെ͸Ǥ͵ͺͷǡെʹǤͳͷͻሿሻǤ
‡ †‘ ‘– ‘„•‡”˜‡ ƒ› •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ‰‡‡”ƒŽ –”‡ƒ–‡– ‡ˆˆ‡…– Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–› ሺ‹†‹…ƒ–‡† „› ͓ሻ ˆ‘” –Š‡
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡• ƒ…”‘•• •—„‰”‘—’• „—– ‘–‡ –Šƒ– Š‹‰Š‡” ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ”‡™ƒ”†• ‘Ž› …‘””‡•’‘† –‘
Š‹‰Š‡”‘„•‡”˜‡†™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ሺ‹†‹…ƒ–‡†„›൅ሻˆ‘”•’‡…‹ˆ‹…•—„‰”‘—’•ሺˆ‘”™‘‡ǡ‹‰”ƒ–•ǡ–Š‘•‡‹
‰‘‘†Š‡ƒŽ–Šǡƒ†–Š‘•‡™Š‘ˆ”‡“—‡–Ž›…‘‘ƒ–Š‘‡ሻǤŠ‡Žƒ”‰‡•–†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡‹•ˆ‘”–Š‘•‡™Š‘ƒ”‡‹
‘–Š‡”™‹•‡ ‰‘‘† Š‡ƒŽ–Š ሺƒ’ƒ”– ˆ”‘ „‡‹‰ ‘„‡•‡ሻǣ ƒ ͳͲͲǦ’‡”…‡– ‹…”‡ƒ•‡ ‹ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡•
…‘””‡•’‘†•–‘ƒʹ͵ʹǦ’‡”…‡–‹…”‡ƒ•‡‹™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ሺͳǤͺͲ͹‰ǡͻͷΨሾെ͵ǤͶͻ͵ǡെͲǤͳʹͳሿ–‘ͶǤʹͲͶ
‰ǡͻͷΨሾെͷǤͺͻͲǡെʹǤͷͳͺሿሻǤ
‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• •‘‡ Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–› ‹ –Š‡ „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ ™‡‹‰Š– …Šƒ‰‡Ǥ ‘– „‡‹‰ ‘–‹˜ƒ–‡† „›
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ”‡™ƒ”†•ǡ ‡ Ž‘•– ‘”‡ ™‡‹‰Š– –Šƒ ™‘‡ǡ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ‹ ƒ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ Ž‘•– ‘”‡
™‡‹‰Š– –Šƒ •‹‰Ž‡• ሺƒ– ͳͲǦ’‡”…‡– •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡ Ž‡˜‡Žሻǡ –Š‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡† Ž‘•– ‘”‡ ™‡‹‰Š– –Šƒ –Š‘•‡
™Š‘ ƒ”‡ ‘– ‡’Ž‘›‡†ǡ ƒ† –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘ ˆ”‡“—‡–Ž› …‘‘ ƒ– Š‘‡ Ž‘•– ‘”‡ ™‡‹‰Š– –Šƒ –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘
•‡Ž†‘ …‘‘ ƒ– Š‘‡Ǥ  ˆƒ…–ǡ ‹ ‡ƒ…Š ‘ˆ –Š‡•‡ …ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•ǡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘‡ •—„‰”‘—’ ˆ‘” ™Š‹…Š ‘
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ ™‡‹‰Š– ”‡†—…–‹‘ ‹• ˆ‘—†Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ™Š‡ ˆƒ…‡† ™‹–Š ƒ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ”‡™ƒ”†
ሺ‹””‡•’‡…–‹˜‡‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ‘—–ሻǡ–Š‡•‡‰”‘—’•‘ˆ’‡‘’Ž‡ƒ”‡ƒ„Ž‡–‘•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›Ž‘•‡™‡‹‰Š–ǤŠ‹•‡ƒ•
–Šƒ– ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡• ƒŽ•‘ ™‘” ˆ‘” ’‡‘’Ž‡ ™Š‘ †‘ ‘– „‡‡ˆ‹– ˆ”‘ …‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘
’”‘‰”ƒ•Ǥ ‘–ƒ„Ž›ǡ –Š‡•‡ ‰”‘—’• ƒ”‡ ‡šƒ…–Ž› –Š‘•‡ ™Š‹…Š ‡šŠ‹„‹– –Š‡ ‘•– •—„•–ƒ–‹ƒŽ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••
™Š‡‰‹˜‡ƒ„‘—•ˆ‘”Ž‘•‹‰™‡‹‰Š–Ǥ
ͳͳ
Table 2 – Baseline Weight Change and Incentive-induced Weight Change by Selected Subgroups
Incentive-induced Weight Change
Baseline Weight Change
Women
0.592#
[1.737, 0.553]
δ1
(EUR
150)
2.290*, +
Men
2.241*, #
[2.993,1.489]
2.213*
*
CI
[3.684,0.897]
δ2
(EUR
300)
4.007*, +
[5.401,2.613]
222
[3.385,1.041]
2.935*
[4.107,1.763]
467
*
[6.385,2.159]
142
CI
CI
Obs
Single
0.560
[2.040, 0.919]
3.115
[5.228,1.002]
4.272
In relationship
2.054*
[2.747,1.361]
2.024*
[3.041,1.007]
2.918*
[3.935,1.900]
555
High educ.
1.685
*
[2.647,0.724]
*
1.643
[3.054,0.232]
2.974
*
[4.385,1.563]
241
Low educ.
1.864*
[2.717,1.012]
2.353*
[3.524,1.182]
3.324*
[4.495,2.152]
435
Native
1.909*
[2.662,1.155]
2.445*
[3.507,1.383]
3.029*
[4.091,1.967]
542
Migrant
1.404*
[2.446,0.363]
1.141+
[2.690, 0.408]
3.261*, +
[4.810,1.712]
145
Employed
2.042*, #
[2.718,1.367]
2.061*
[3.048,1.074]
3.034*
[4.021,2.047]
574
Not employed
0.179
#
[1.843, 1.485]
*
3.326
[5.733,0.919]
4.240
*
[6.647,1.834]
123
Urban
1.457*
[2.727,0.187]
0.962
[2.669, 0.745]
2.832*
[4.539,1.126]
160
*
[4.576,2.408]
524
[5.890,2.518]
192
[3.925,1.790]
493
Rural
1.889
*
[2.622,1.156]
2.578
[3.662,1.494]
3.492
Good health
1.818*
[3.131,0.505]
1.807*, +
[3.493,0.121]
4.204*, +
*
*
*
*
[2.496,1.070]
2.165
[3.233,1.098]
2.857
2.046*, #
[2.764,1.328]
2.032*, +
[3.088,0.975]
3.342*, +
[4.398,2.285]
539
0.276#
[1.411, 0.860]
3.374*
[5.042,1.707]
3.478*
[5.145,1.811]
151
Diet in past
*
1.302
[2.058,0.546]
*
2.961
[4.181,1.742]
3.938
*
[5.158,2.719]
395
No diet in past
2.427*
[3.496,1.358]
1.280
[2.692, 0.132]
2.161*
[3.573,0.749]
296
Bad health
1.783
Cook at home
Seldom
*
+
#
Weight change significant at 5%, (δ2 δ1) significant at 5%, equality of weight change between the two subgroups significant at
5%. Two-sided t-tests used. The estimates and standard errors are obtained from subgroup-specific ordinary least-square
regressions of weight change on the two treatment group indicators and a constant term.
Ͷ
Š‡•–—†›‹•ƒŽƒ”‰‡Ǧ•…ƒŽ‡”ƒ†‘‹œ‡†…‘–”‘ŽŽ‡†–”‹ƒŽ†‡•‹‰‡†–‘–‡•––Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡••‘ˆˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ
‹…‡–‹˜‡• ‹ ‹†—…‹‰ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ƒ‘‰ ‘„‡•‡ ’ƒ–‹‡–•Ǥ Š‡ –”‹ƒŽ †‡‘•–”ƒ–‡† –Šƒ– ƒ ’‘•‹–‹˜‡
‘—–’—–Ǧ„ƒ•‡† ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡ ‹• ƒ ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡ ‹•–”—‡– –‘ ƒ…Š‹‡˜‡ ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••
ƒ‘‰–Š‡‘„‡•‡Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡƒ‰‡‡”ƒŽŠ‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›‹–Š‡–”‡ƒ–‡–‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•‹•
ͳʹ
‡‹–Š‡” ‘„•‡”˜‡† ˆ‘” •‘…‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹… …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• ‘” ˆ‘” ‡šŠ‹„‹–‡† Š‡ƒŽ–ŠǦ”‡Žƒ–‡† „‡Šƒ˜‹‘”• ‹
–Š‡ •–—†›Ǥ ‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• •‘‡ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ˆ‘” ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ” •—„‰”‘—’• ሺˆ‘” ™‘‡ǡ ‹‰”ƒ–•ǡ
–Š‘•‡ ‹ ‰‘‘† Š‡ƒŽ–Šǡ ƒ† –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘ ˆ”‡“—‡–Ž› …‘‘ ƒ– Š‘‡ሻ –Šƒ– ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰ –Š‡ ƒ‘—– ‘ˆ
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡ Šƒ• ƒ †‹”‡…–Ž› ’”‘’‘”–‹‘ƒŽ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ –Š‡ ƒ‘—– ‘ˆ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••Ǥ ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ ˆ‘”
‹‰”ƒ–•ǡ—”„ƒ…‹–‹œ‡•ǡƒ†–Š‘•‡™Š‘Šƒ˜‡‘–—†‡”‰‘‡ƒ†‹‡–‹–Š‡Žƒ•–ˆ‘—”›‡ƒ”•ǡͳͷͲ‹•
‘–‡‘—‰Š–‘‹†—…‡ˆ—”–Š‡”™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ǤŽ›–Š‡Š‹‰Š‡”‘‡–ƒ”›”‡™ƒ”†‘–‹˜ƒ–‡†–Š‡–‘Ž‘•‡
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž› ‘”‡ ™‡‹‰Š– ƒ• …‘’ƒ”‡† –‘ „ƒ•‡Ž‹‡Ǥ Š‹• ‡ƒ• –Šƒ– –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ ’”‘‹•‹‰ ‘”‡
‘‡›ˆ‘”™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ›†‡’‡†•‘•’‡…‹ˆ‹…‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…•Ǥ
‘–Š‡”‹’‘”–ƒ–”‡•—Ž–‹•–Š‡…ƒ’ƒ…‹–›‘ˆˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•–‘‹†—…‡’‡‘’Ž‡–‘Ž‘•‡™‡‹‰Š–™Š‡
–Š‡›™‘—Ž†‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Šƒ˜‡ˆƒ‹Ž‡†–‘†‘•‘ǤŠ‹•‹•‘„•‡”˜‡†ˆ‘”™‘‡ǡ•‹‰Ž‡•ǡ–Š‘•‡™Š‘ƒ”‡‘–
‡’Ž‘›‡†ǡƒ†–Š‘•‡™Š‘•‡Ž†‘…‘‘ƒ–Š‘‡Ǥ‘”–Š‡•‡‰”‘—’•ǡ‹–‹•‘–•—ˆˆ‹…‹‡–•‹’Ž›–‘‰‹˜‡
–Š‡ ƒ ’‡”•‘ƒŽ‹œ‡† –ƒ”‰‡– ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••ǡ ‡†‹…ƒŽ ƒ†˜‹…‡ǡ ƒ† ™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘•• …‘—•‡Ž‹‰Ǥ Š‡ ’ƒ––‡”
•‡‡• –‘ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™ ƒ ‹…‘‡ ‰”ƒ†‹‡–ǡ ƒ• –Š‡•‡ ‰”‘—’• ‘ˆ ’‡‘’Ž‡ ƒ”‡ ‘”‡ Ž‹‡Ž› –‘ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ
‡…‘‘‹…ƒŽŽ› †‹•ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡† ’‘•‹–‹‘ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ –‘ –Š‡‹” …‘—–‡”’ƒ”–• ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ ƒŽ‡ ˜•Ǥ ™‘‡ ‘”
‡’Ž‘›‡†˜•Ǥ‘–™‘”‹‰ሻǤˆƒ…–ǡ‹ˆ™‡–ƒ‡–Š‡‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•ˆ”‘’‡‘’Ž‡™Š‘„‡Ž‘‰–‘–Š‡ˆ‹”•–
“—ƒ”–‹Ž‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹…‘‡†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘ǡ™‡ˆ‹†ƒ•‹‹Žƒ”’ƒ––‡”Ȅ–Šƒ–‹•ǡ„‡‹‰’”‘’–‡†–‘”‡ƒŽ‹œ‡ƒ
…‡”–ƒ‹ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• –ƒ”‰‡– ƒŽ‘‡ †‘‡• ‘– ‰‡‡”ƒ–‡ ƒ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽŽ› •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– …Šƒ‰‡ ‹ ™‡‹‰Š–ǡ „—–
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•ሺ™Š‡–Š‡”ͳͷͲ‘”͵ͲͲሻ†‘Ǥ
– ‹• ˆ‘” –Š‡•‡ ’‡‘’Ž‡ ™Š‡”‡ ƒ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡ …‘—Ž† Šƒ˜‡ ƒ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– ‹’ƒ…–ǡ •‹…‡ –Š‡ ‘–Š‡”
‰”‘—’•‡šŠ‹„‹–‡†™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ƒ›™ƒ›ሺ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡ƒ‰‹–—†‡‹••ƒŽŽ‡”ሻ‡˜‡™‹–Š‘—––Š‡ƒ”‰‹ƒŽ
‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ …‘•‹†‡”‹‰ ƒ ˆ‹š‡† „—†‰‡– …‘•–”ƒ‹–ǡ ‹ˆ –Š‡ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹…› „ƒ•‡† ‘
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡• ‹• –‘ ‡•—”‡–Šƒ–‡˜‡”›‘‡ Ž‘•‡•™‡‹‰Š–ǡ ƒ Žƒ”‰‡”’ƒ”– ‘ˆ –Š‡‘‡–ƒ”› ƒ‘—–
‹‰Š– „‡ „‡––‡” ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‡† –‘ –Š‡•‡ ‰”‘—’•Ǥ Š‡ ’—„Ž‹…Ž› ‘„•‡”˜ƒ„Ž‡ ’‡”•‘ƒŽ …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• ƒ”‡
‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹˜‡‡‘—‰Šˆ‘”ƒ‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ”‡•‘—”…‡•Ǥ
– ‹• ‘– ‘„˜‹‘—•ǡ Š‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Šƒ– •—…Š ƒ •…‡ƒ”‹‘ •Š‘—Ž† „‡ –Š‡ ‰‘ƒŽ ‘ˆ ’—„Ž‹… ’‘Ž‹…›Ǥ ‘” ‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ
™Š‹Ž‡ ‹†—…‹‰ ‡˜‡”›‘‡ –‘ Ž‘•‡ ™‡‹‰Š– ‹• †‡•‹”ƒ„Ž‡ǡ ‡•—”‹‰ –Šƒ– –Š‡ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ‹• ‡†‹…ƒŽŽ›
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡•• ”‡ƒ‹• ƒ ”‡Ž‡˜ƒ– ˆƒ…–‘”Ǥ  –Š‹• …ƒ•‡ǡ –Š‡ ‘„‡•‡ ˆƒ…‹‰ Š‹‰Š‡” ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ
‹…‡–‹˜‡•ƒ”‡‘•–Ž‹‡Ž›–‘Ž‘•‡–Š‡‘•–™‡‹‰Š–ƒ†–Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡”‡ƒ’–Š‡„‡‡ˆ‹–•‘ˆ•—…Šƒ™‡‹‰Š–
Ž‘••Ǥ‘–Š‡”™‘”†•ǡƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š‡•—”‹‰–Šƒ–‡˜‡”›‘‡Ž‘•‡•ƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–ͳ‰‹•ƒƒ––”ƒ…–‹˜‡’”‘’‘•‹–‹‘ǡ
‹– ‹• ‘–‡…‡••ƒ”‹Ž›„‡––‡”–Šƒ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰–Š‡ Ž‹‡Ž‹Š‘‘† ‘ˆ ƒ ’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ” ‰”‘—’‘ˆ ’‡‘’Ž‡–‘Ž‘•‡ƒ–
Ž‡ƒ•–ͷ’‡”…‡–‘ˆ–Š‡‹”…—””‡–™‡‹‰Š–ǡ™Š‹…Š‹•‘ˆ–‡”‡‰ƒ”†‡†ƒ•ƒ–Š”‡•Š‘Ž†–‘‹’”‘˜‡–Š‡Š‡ƒŽ–Š
•–ƒ–—•‘ˆ–Š‡‘„‡•‡ሺ‹†ƒŽʹͲͲʹሻǤ
Ž–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡•‹œ‡‘ˆ–Š‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡†‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ͵ͲͲ‹•Š‹‰Š‡”ˆ‘”ƒŽŽ•—„‰”‘—’•ƒ•…‘’ƒ”‡†–‘–Š‡
‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ–Š‡ͳͷͲ”‡™ƒ”†ǡ–Š‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡„‡–™‡‡–Š‡–™‘‡ˆˆ‡…–•‹•‘Ž›•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽŽ›•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–
ˆ‘”™‘‡ǡ–Š‘•‡™Š‘™‡”‡‘–„‘”‹
‡”ƒ›ǡ–Š‘•‡ƒŽ”‡ƒ†›‹‘–Š‡”™‹•‡‰‘‘†Š‡ƒŽ–Šǡƒ†–Š‘•‡
™Š‘ ˆ”‡“—‡–Ž› …‘‘ ƒ– Š‘‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ –Š‡”‡ ‹• •‘‡ ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‘ˆ ƒ ’‘•‹–‹˜‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’
„‡–™‡‡–Š‡•‹œ‡‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡ƒ†–Š‡”‡•—Ž–‹‰ƒ‘—–‘ˆ™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ǡ–Š‡”‡•—Ž–•ǡƒ•ƒ
™Š‘Ž‡ǡ‹†‹…ƒ–‡–Šƒ––Š‡’”‡•‡…‡‘ˆƒˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡‹–•‡Žˆ‹•‘”‡‹’‘”–ƒ––Šƒ‹–••‹œ‡Ǥ
‹ƒŽŽ›ǡƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š‹‹–‹ƒŽŠ›’‘–Š‡•‡•ƒ„‘—––”‡ƒ–‡–Ǧ‡ˆˆ‡…–Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›™‡”‡•–ƒ–‡†ƒ––Š‡‘—–•‡–ǡ
•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ–‡•–•†‘‘–‹†‹…ƒ–‡ƒ›‡˜‹†‡…‡‘ˆ‹–•‡š‹•–‡…‡Ǥˆƒ…–ǡŠ‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›ƒ•ƒˆ—…–‹‘‘ˆ
„ƒ•‡Ž‹‡ …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• ™ƒ• ’”‹ƒ”‹Ž› ‘„•‡”˜‡† ˆ‘” –Š‡ …‘–”‘Ž ƒ” ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡š’‡”‹‡–ǡ ™Š‡”‡
ͳ͵
’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ™‡”‡ ‡š…Ž—•‹˜‡Ž› ‰‹˜‡ ƒ ’‡”•‘ƒŽ‹œ‡† –ƒ”‰‡– ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••ǡ ƒ† ˆ‘” –Š‡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡
„‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ –™‘ –”‡ƒ–‡– ƒ”•Ǥ ˜‡”ƒŽŽǡ –Š‹• ’”‘˜‹†‡• ‡˜‹†‡…‡ ƒ‰ƒ‹•– –Š‡ Š›’‘–Š‡•‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡
‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•‘’‡”ƒ–‡•„›ƒ…–‹˜ƒ–‹‰ƒ’‡”•‘ǯ•‹Š‡”‡–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘Ž‘•‡™‡‹‰Š–Ǥˆ–Š‹•
™‡”‡ –Š‡ …ƒ•‡ǡ ‘‡ ™‘—Ž† ‘„•‡”˜‡ •–”‘‰‡” ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ƒ‘‰ –Š‘•‡ ™Š‘ Šƒ˜‡ ‰”‡ƒ–‡” ƒ„‹Ž‹–›
‹””‡•’‡…–‹˜‡‘ˆ–Š‡•‹œ‡‘ˆ–Š‡”‡™ƒ”†ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ„‡…ƒ—•‡‘ˆŽ‡••–‹‡…‘•–”ƒ‹–•ሻǤ–”ƒ–Š‡”ƒ’’‡ƒ”•–Šƒ–
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ‹•–”—‡–ˆ‘”™‡‹‰Š–”‡†—…–‹‘‘–Š‡‹”‘™ƒ†ǡŠ‡…‡ǡƒ›ƒ‹†
‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•™Š‘‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Žƒ…–Š‡‡ƒ•‘”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘…‘–”‘ŽŠ‹•‘”Š‡”™‡‹‰Š–Ǥ
‡™ƒ––‘‡’Šƒ•‹œ‡–Šƒ–„‡ˆ‘”‡–Š‡‡š’‡”‹‡––‘‘’Žƒ…‡ǡ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•Šƒ†—†‡”‰‘‡ƒ‡†‹…ƒŽ
”‡Šƒ„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‘ –”‡ƒ–‡– ™Š‡”‡ –Š‡› Šƒ† ”‡…‡‹˜‡† ƒ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘•• ‰‘ƒŽǡ ƒ†˜‹…‡ǡ ƒ†
…‘—•‡Ž‹‰Ǥ ‘”–Š‹•”‡ƒ•‘ǡ‹–‹•’‘••‹„Ž‡–Šƒ–ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•ƒ”‡‘Ž›‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡…‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ‘
–Š‡ƒ••‹‰‡–‘ˆƒ•’‡…‹ˆ‹…–ƒ”‰‡–™‡‹‰Š–ƒ†–Š‡‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘ˆ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡ƒ•—”‡•–‘Ž‘•‡™‡‹‰Š–Ǥ
Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ ™‡ ƒ”‡ ‹…Ž‹‡† –‘ …‘…Ž—†‡ –Šƒ– ‘‡–ƒ”› ”‡™ƒ”†• ‹ …‘„‹ƒ–‹‘ ™‹–Š ƒ†˜‹…‡ ƒ†
…‘—•‡Ž‹‰ƒ”‡–Š‡‡›–‘•—……‡••Ǥ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡƒŽƒ”‰‡Ǧ•…ƒŽ‡‘‡–ƒ”›‹…‡–‹˜‡•…Š‡‡•‡‡•–‘„‡
ˆ‡ƒ•‹„Ž‡ ‡˜‡ ‹ˆ ‰‡‡”ƒŽ ’”ƒ…–‹–‹‘‡”• ƒ”‡ ’—”’‘•‡ˆ—ŽŽ› ‡š…Ž—†‡† ‹ ‘”†‡” –‘ ƒ˜‘‹† …‘ˆŽ‹…–• ‘ˆ
‹–‡”‡•–•ǤŠ‡’”‡•‡–•–—†›•‡”˜‡•ƒ•ƒ‡šƒ’Ž‡ˆ‘”‹–•ˆ‡ƒ•‹„‹Ž‹–›•‹…‡–Š‡’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•Šƒ˜‡„‡‡
•’”‡ƒ† ‘—– ƒ…”‘•• –Š‡ ™Š‘Ž‡ ‡”ƒ ˆ‡†‡”ƒŽ •–ƒ–‡ ‘ˆ ƒ†‡Ǧò”––‡„‡”‰ ™Š‹…Š ‹• ‹ •‹œ‡ ƒ†
’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘…‘’ƒ”ƒ„Ž‡–‘™‹–œ‡”Žƒ†Ǥ
‹–Š ”‡‰ƒ”† –‘ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ —Ž–‹’Ž‡ –‡•–‹‰ǡ ‹– ‹• ‹’‘”–ƒ– –‘ ”‡‡„‡” ƒ– –Š‡ ‘—–•‡– –Šƒ– –Š‡
‡˜‹†‡…‡ ‹†‹…ƒ–‡• –Šƒ– –Š‡”‡ ‹• ƒ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽŽ› •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ˆ‘” „‘–Š ƒ‘—–• ‘ˆ –Š‡
ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•ǤŠ‹•”‡•—Ž–‹•”‘„—•–ˆ‘”ƒŽŽ•—„‰”‘—’…ƒ–‡‰‘”‹‡•ƒƒŽ›œ‡†Ǥ‘ǡ™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡”‡‹•–Š‡
”‹•ˆ‘””‡•‡ƒ”…Š‡”•–‘’‡”ˆ‘”‡šǦ’‘•–•—„‰”‘—’ƒƒŽ›•‡•–‘”‡’‘”–•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‡ˆˆ‡…–•–Šƒ–ƒ”‡Ž‹‡Ž›
–Š‡ ”‡•—Ž– ‘ˆ ‡”‡ …Šƒ…‡ǡ –Š‹• ”‹• ‹• ‹–‹‰ƒ–‡† ‹ –Š‹• …ƒ•‡ „‡…ƒ—•‡ –Š‡ ‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‹• ‡˜‹†‡–Ǥ
Š—•ǡ –Š‡ •—„‰”‘—’ ƒƒŽ›•‡• ’‡”ˆ‘”‡† ‹ –Š‹• •–—†› ƒ”‡ ‘– •—•…‡’–‹„Ž‡ –‘ ‹ƒ†˜‡”–‡–Ž› ˆ‹†‹‰
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹’ƒ…–•™Š‡–Š‡”‡ƒ”‡‘‡Ǥ˜‡‹ˆ–Š‡”‡™ƒ•—…Š‘ˆƒ…‘…‡”ǡ‘—”…‘…Ž—•‹‘‹•–Šƒ–
‹ ˆƒ…– –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘ ‰‡‡”ƒŽ –”‡ƒ–‡– ‡ˆˆ‡…– Š‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–› –Šƒ– …ƒ „‡ ‘„•‡”˜‡† ˆ”‘ –Š‡ †ƒ–ƒǤ
†Œ—•–‹‰ –Š‡ ’Ǧ˜ƒŽ—‡ ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ ‘ˆ‡””‘‹Ǧ–›’‡ ƒ†Œ—•–‡–•ሻ –‘ ƒ……‘—– ˆ‘” —Ž–‹’Ž‡ –‡•–‹‰ ™‹ŽŽ ‘Ž›
”ƒ‹•‡–Š‡ –Š”‡•Š‘Ž†ˆ‘” ™Š‹…Š–‘ˆ‹† ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ‡ˆˆ‡…–Ǥ…”‡ƒ•‹‰–Šƒ– –Š”‡•Š‘Ž† ‹ –Š‹• …ƒ•‡™‹ŽŽ
‘–…Šƒ‰‡–Š‡‰‡‡”ƒŽ…‘…Ž—•‹‘ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡ˆ‹†‹‰‘ˆŠ‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–›‹–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ”ƒ‹•‹‰–Š‡
”‡™ƒ”†ˆ”‘ͳͷͲ–‘͵ͲͲƒ›„‡‘˜‡”–—”‡†Ǥ
 –Š‡ ‘–Š‡” Šƒ†ǡ •‹…‡ •—„•ƒ’Ž‡ ƒƒŽ›•‡• Ž‘™‡” –Š‡ ’‘™‡” ‘ˆ –Š‡ •–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ –‡•–ǡ ‹– ”ƒ‹•‡• –Š‡
’‘••‹„‹Ž‹–›–Šƒ––Š‡ˆ‹†‹‰‘ˆ‘™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘••‡ˆˆ‡…–ˆ‘”…‡”–ƒ‹•—„‰”‘—’•‹•†—‡–‘…Šƒ…‡Ǥ‘–Š‡”
™‘”†•ǡ™‡‹…”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡Ž‹‡Ž‹Š‘‘†‘ˆˆƒ‹Ž‹‰–‘”‡Œ‡…––Š‡—ŽŽŠ›’‘–Š‡•‡•™Š‡‹ˆƒ…–‹–‹•ˆƒŽ•‡ǤŠ‹•
’ƒ”–‹…—Žƒ” –”‹ƒŽ ‹˜‘Ž˜‡† ƒ Žƒ”‰‡” —„‡” ‘ˆ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–• ሺ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ ‘Ž’’ ‡– ƒŽǤ ሺʹͲͲͺሻ Šƒ† ͷ͹ ƒ†
‹‡Ž•–‡‹ ‡–ƒŽǤ ሺʹͲͲ͹ሻŠƒ†ʹͲ͹’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•ሻǡ ™Š‹…Š ‹• ƒ †‹•–‹…– ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡ …—””‡–•–—†›Ǥ
‹…‡–Š‡’‘™‡”‘ˆ–Š‡•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ–‡•–‹•ƒ’‘•‹–‹˜‡ˆ—…–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•ǡ–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–
‘–Š‡’‘™‡”„›…‘†—…–‹‰•—„•ƒ’Ž‡ƒƒŽ›•‡•ƒ›„‡‹–‹‰ƒ–‡†„›–Š‡——•—ƒŽŽ›Š‹‰Š—„‡”‘ˆ
‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡–‘‘–Š‡”•–—†‹‡•‘ˆ–Š‹•‹†Ǥ
•—ƒ”›ǡ–Š‡’”‡•‡–’ƒ’‡”•Š‘™•–Šƒ–ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡Ž›Š‡Ž’‘„‡•‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•–‘
”‡†—…‡™‡‹‰Š–ƒ…”‘••ƒŽŽ•—„‰”‘—’•ǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ•–Š‡ƒ‰‹–—†‡‘ˆ–Š‡”‡™ƒ”†•‡‡•–‘„‡”‡Ž‡˜ƒ–‘Ž›
ˆ‘” …‡”–ƒ‹ •—„‰”‘—’•Ǥ ‡–‡”‘‰‡‡‹–› ‹• ‘Ž› ˆ‘—† ™‹–Š ”‡•’‡…– –‘ –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰ –Š‡
’”‘‹•‡† ”‡™ƒ”†Ǥ †‹˜‹†—ƒŽ …Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• •‡‡ –‘ ƒ––‡” ‘”‡ ‹ –Š‡ ƒ„•‡…‡ ‘ˆ ‘‡–ƒ”›
ͳͶ
”‡™ƒ”†• •‹…‡ –Š‡ ’ƒ’‡” ”‡˜‡ƒŽ• –Šƒ– …‘–”‘ŽǦ‰”‘—’ ‡„‡”• ‘ˆ •‘‡ •—„‰”‘—’• †‹† ‘–
•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž› Ž‘•‡™‡‹‰Š–Ǥ‡’”‘˜‹†‡‡˜‹†‡…‡–Šƒ–‘‡–ƒ”›”‡™ƒ”†•Šƒ˜‡–Š‡…ƒ’ƒ…‹–›–‘‹†—…‡
’‡‘’Ž‡–‘ Ž‘•‡ •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–™‡‹‰Š– ‡˜‡‹ˆ–Š‡‹” ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”‹•–‹…• ‹’Ž›—ˆƒ˜‘”ƒ„Ž‡™‡‹‰Š–Ǧ
Ž‘•• ’”‘•’‡…–•ǡ ‹Ǥ‡Ǥǡ ’‡‘’Ž‡ ˆ‘” ™Š‘ –Š‡ …‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ ™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘•• ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘ ’”‘‰”ƒ• ƒ”‡
—•—……‡••ˆ—ŽǤ ˆ –Š‡ ‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ ‘ˆ ƒ ’‘Ž‹…› „ƒ•‡† ‘ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡• ‹• –‘ ‡•—”‡ –Šƒ– ‡˜‡”›‘‡
Ž‘•‡•™‡‹‰Š–ǡƒŽƒ”‰‡”’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡‘‡–ƒ”›ƒ‘—–‹‰Š– „‡ „‡––‡”ƒŽŽ‘…ƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡•‡ ‰”‘—’•ǤŠ‡
“—‡•–‹‘‘ˆ™Š‡–Š‡”ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•ƒ”‡ƒŽ•‘—•‡ˆ—Ž–‘ƒ…Š‹‡˜‡™‡‹‰Š–ƒ‹–‡ƒ…‡‹•…—””‡–Ž›
–Š‡•—„Œ‡…–‘ˆƒ•—„•‡“—‡–‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
ͳͷ
’’‡Žǡ Ǥ ǡ Žƒ”ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ‡Šǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ƒ†ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ‘—‰ŠŽ‹ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ƒ—‹–ǡ Ǥǡ ‹ŽŽ‡”ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ƒŽ…‹ǡ Ǥǡ
‡”‘‡ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ‡ŽŽ‡”ǡ Ǥǡ ‘”‘Šƒǡ Ǥǡ ‘œ‡ˆ•›ǡ Ǥǡ Šƒ”Ž‡•–‘ǡ Ǥǡ ‡›‘Ž†•ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ —”‹ǡ Ǥǡ
—„‹ǡǤǤǡ‘—‹•ǡǤǤǡƒ†”ƒ…ƒ–‹ǡǤǤሺʹͲͳͳሻǤDz‘’ƒ”ƒ–‹˜‡‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡••‘ˆ™‡‹‰Š–ǦŽ‘••
͵͸ͷሺʹͳሻǣͳͻͷͻԟͳͻ͸ͺǤ
‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘•‹…Ž‹‹…ƒŽ’”ƒ…–‹…‡dzǡ‡™‰Žƒ†‘—”ƒŽ‘ˆ‡†‹…‹‡͵
—‰—”œ›ǡǤǡƒ—‡”ǡǤǤǡ‡‹…Š‡”–ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ…Š‹†–ǡ ǤǤǡ ƒ†ƒ—…Šƒǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͳʹሻǤ Dz‘‡• ‘‡›
—”ƒ–ǫ˜‹†‡…‡ˆ”‘ƒƒ†‘‹œ‡†š’‡”‹‡–dzǡ—Š”…‘‘‹…ƒ’‡”‘Ǥ͵͸ͺǤ
ƒ— ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ƒ† —Šǡ Ǥ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲͻሻǤ Dz‰‡ǡ •‘…‹‘‡…‘‘‹… •–ƒ–—• ƒ† ‘„‡•‹–› ‰”‘™–Šdzǡ ‘—”ƒŽ ‘ˆ
ʹͺሺ͵ሻǣ͸͵ͷԟ͸ͶͺǤ
‡ƒŽ–Š…‘‘‹…•ʹ
‹‡Ž•–‡‹ǡǤǤǡ‹‘ƒ˜‡–—”ƒǡǤǡ—”‰‡••ǡǤǤǡƒ†ƒŽ‡ǡǤǤሺʹͲͳͲሻǤDzŠ‡…‘•–•‘ˆ‘„‡•‹–›‹
ͷʹሺͳͲሻǣͻ͹ͳԟͻ͹͸Ǥ
–Š‡™‘”’Žƒ…‡dzǡ‘—”ƒŽ‘ˆ……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ†˜‹”‘‡–ƒŽ‡†‹…‹‡ͷ
‹‡Ž•–‡‹ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ‹ƒǡ Ǥǡ ƒ–‡ǡ Ǥǡ ƒ† ‹”‡ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲ͹ሻǤ Dz ’‹Ž‘– •–—†› –‡•–‹‰ –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…– ‘ˆ
†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–Ž‡˜‡Ž•‘ˆˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•‘™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••ƒ‘‰‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š–‡’Ž‘›‡‡•dzǡ ‘—”ƒŽ
‘ˆ……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ†˜‹”‘‡–ƒŽ‡†‹…‹‡ͶͻሺͻሻǣͻͺͳԟͻͺͻǤ
‹—…ƒ‡ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ –‡˜‡•ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ‘™ƒǡ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ ƒƒ‡‹ǡ Ǥǡ ‹ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ ƒ…‹‘”‡ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ ‹‰Šǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ
—–‹‡””‡œǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ —ǡ Ǥǡ ƒŠƒŽ‹ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ƒ”œƒ†ˆƒ”ǡ Ǥǡ ‹Ž‡›ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ƒ† œœƒ–‹ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲͳሻǤ
Dzƒ–‹‘ƒŽǡ ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽǡ ƒ† ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ –”‡†• ‹ „‘†›Ǧƒ•• ‹†‡š •‹…‡ ͳͻͺͲǣ •›•–‡ƒ–‹… ƒƒŽ›•‹• ‘ˆ
Š‡ƒŽ–Š ‡šƒ‹ƒ–‹‘ •—”˜‡›• ƒ† ‡’‹†‡‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ •–—†‹‡• ™‹–Š ͻ͸Ͳ …‘—–”›Ǧ›‡ƒ”• ƒ† ͻǤͳ
͵͹͹ሺͻ͹͸ͷሻǣͷͷ͹ԟͷ͸͹Ǥ
‹ŽŽ‹‘’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–•dzǡƒ…‡–͵
ƒ–‡•ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ —……‘’ǡ Ǥǡ ”‡Šǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ‹ŽŽ‡•’‹‡ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ ƒ† ‘‡”•ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲͺሻǤ Dz„‡•‹–› ƒ†
’”‡•‡–‡‡‹•ǣ –Š‡ ‹’ƒ…– ‘ˆ „‘†› ƒ•• ‹†‡š ‘ ™‘”’Žƒ…‡ ’”‘†—…–‹˜‹–›dzǡ ‘—”ƒŽ ‘ˆ
ͷͲሺͳሻǣ͵ͻԟͶͷǤ
……—’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ†˜‹”‘‡–ƒŽ‡†‹…‹‡ͷ
ƒŽŒ§”ǡǤǡ‘Ž•–ǡǤǡƒ†Þ”‡•‡ǡǤǤǤሺʹͲͲ͵ሻǤDz–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡…‡‡•–…‘”‡ƒ††—…ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡˜‡Ž‹
ͳͳሺͳͲሻǣͳʹ͵ͺԟͳʹͶͷǤ
‡Žƒ–‹‘–‘Šƒ‰‡•ƒ†„‡•‹–›dzǡ„‡•‹–›‡•‡ƒ”…Šͳ
ƒ•‡ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ƒ† ‘™‡”•ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲͺሻǤ Dz‘˜ƒ”‹ƒ–‡ „ƒŽƒ…‡ ‹ •‹’Ž‡ǡ •–”ƒ–‹ˆ‹‡† ƒ† …Ž—•–‡”‡†
ʹ͵ሺʹሻǣʹͳͻԟʹ͵͸Ǥ
…‘’ƒ”ƒ–‹˜‡•–—†‹‡•dzǡ–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ…‹‡…‡ʹ
‡„ŽǡǤǤƒ†—”…Š‹ǡǤǤሺʹͲͲͷሻǤDzŠ‡–‹‰ƒ‘ˆ„‡•‹–›ǣŠƒ–„‘—–‡ǫdzǡ ƒ•‹…ƒ†’’Ž‹‡†
ʹ͹ሺ͵ሻǣʹ͸͹ԟʹ͹ͷǤ
‘…‹ƒŽ•›…Š‘Ž‘‰›ʹ
—”–Šǡ ǤǦǤ ƒ† …Šƒˆˆ”ƒ–Š ‘•ƒ”‹‘ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲ͹ሻǤ Dz‹‡ ‡”„”‡‹–—‰ ˜‘ o„‡”‰‡™‹…Š– —† †‹’‘•‹–ƒ•
„‡‹ ‹†‡” —† —‰‡†Ž‹…Š‡ ‹ ‡—–•…ŠŽƒ†Ǥ ”‰‡„‹••‡ †‡• „—†‡•™‡‹–‡ ‹†‡”Ǧ —†
—‰‡†‰‡•—†Š‡‹–••—”˜‡›• ሺ‹
ሻdzǡ —†‡•‰‡•—†Š‡‹–•„Žƒ–– ‡•—†Š‡‹–•ˆ‘”•…Š—‰
ͷͲሺͷǦ͸ሻǣ͹͵͸ԟ͹Ͷ͵Ǥ
‡•—†Š‡‹–••…Š—–œͷ
‡Š‡”ǡ Ǥ ƒ† —†•–‡…ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͳͳሻǤ DzŠ‡ ‹‰”ƒ– ƒ‰‡ ƒ’ ‹ ‡”ƒ›ǣ ”‡ ƒ•– —”‘’‡ƒ•
‘”•‡ˆˆǫdzǡ–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹‰”ƒ–‹‘‡˜‹‡™ͶͷሺͶሻǣͺ͹ʹԟͻͲ͸Ǥ
ͳ͸
ƒšǦ—„‡”Ǧ•–‹–—–ሺʹͲͲͺሻǤƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡‡”œ‡Š”•Ǧ–—†‹‡Ǥ”‰‡„‹•„‡”‹…Š–ǡ‡‹ŽͳǤƒ”Ž•”—Š‡ǣƒšǦ
—„‡”Ǧ•–‹–—–Ǥ
ͳͶሺ͵ሻǣͶͳ͵ԟͶ͵͵Ǥ
‘””‹•ǡǤሺʹͲͲ͹ሻǤDzŠ‡‹’ƒ…–‘ˆ‘„‡•‹–›‘‡’Ž‘›‡–dzǡƒ„‘—”…‘‘‹…•ͳ
ƒŽ‘›‘ǡ Ǥǡ Ǥ Ǥ ‡‹…Š‡”–ǡ Ǥ ‡‹‡”ƒǡ ƒ† ƒ—…Šƒǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͳͳሻǤ DzŠ‡ ƒ—•ƒŽ ‹ ‡–™‡‡
‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ …‡–‹˜‡• ƒ† ‡‹‰Š– ‘•• Ȃ  ˜‹†‡…‡Ǧ„ƒ•‡† —”˜‡› ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‹–‡”ƒ–—”‡dzǡ —Š”
…‘‘‹…ƒ’‡”‘ǤʹͻͲǤ
ƒ—ŽǦ„Š‘Š‹Š‡ǡǤƒ†˜‡‡ŽŽǡǤሺʹͲͲͺሻǤDz›•–‡ƒ–‹…”‡˜‹‡™‘ˆ–Š‡—•‡‘ˆˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ‹…‡–‹˜‡•‹
ͻሺͶሻǣ͵ͷͷԟ͵͸͹Ǥ
–”‡ƒ–‡–•ˆ‘”‘„‡•‹–›ƒ†‘˜‡”™‡‹‰Š–dzǡ„‡•‹–›‡˜‹‡™•ͻ
—ŠŽǡ Ǥ Ǥ ƒ† ‡—‡”ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲͻሻǤ DzŠ‡ –‹‰ƒ ‘ˆ „‡•‹–›ǣ ‡˜‹‡™ ƒ† ’†ƒ–‡dzǡ „‡•‹–›
ͳ͹ሺͷሻǣͻͶͳԟͻ͸ͶǤ
ͳͷ͸ǣͳͲͶԟͳͳʹǤ
ƒ•Šƒ†ǡǤƒ†
”‘••ƒǡǤሺʹͲͲͶሻǤDzŠ‡‡…‘‘‹…•‘ˆ‘„‡•‹–›dzǡ—„Ž‹…–‡”‡•–ͳ
‡Ž–‘ǡ Ǥǡ –”‘‰ǡ Ǥǡ ƒ† ‹ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͳͳሻǤ DzŠ‡ Ǯ‘—†• ˆ‘” ‘—†•ǯ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘•• ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‹…‡–‹˜‡
•…Š‡‡ǣ ƒ ‡˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒ ’‹Ž‘– ‹ ƒ•–‡” ƒ† ‘ƒ•–ƒŽ ‡–dzǡ ‘—”ƒŽ ‘ˆ —„Ž‹… ‡ƒŽ–Š
͵͵ሺͶሻǣͷ͵͸ԟͷͶʹǤ
‘•‹ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲͺሻǤ DzŠ‡ ‡…‘‘‹… …ƒ—•‡• ‘ˆ ‘„‡•‹–›ǣ •—”˜‡›dzǡ ‘—”ƒŽ ‘ˆ …‘‘‹… —”˜‡›•
ʹʹሺͶሻǣ͸ͳ͹ԟ͸Ͷ͹Ǥ
ƒ……‘‡ǡ ǤǤ ƒ† •”ƒ‡Žǡ ǤǤ ሺͳͻ͹ͺሻǤ Dzˆˆ‡…–• ‘ˆ ‡š’‡”‹‡–‡” ˜‡”•—• •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ‘–Š‡”Ǧ…‘–”‘ŽŽ‡†
ͻሺʹሻǣʹ͹ͳԟʹ͹ͺǤ
”‡‹ˆ‘”…‡‡–ƒ†…Š‘‹…‡‘ˆ–ƒ”‰‡–„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”‘™‡‹‰Š–Ž‘••dzǡ‡Šƒ˜‹‘”Š‡”ƒ’›ͻ
‹†ƒŽǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲʹሻǤ Dz’†ƒ–‡† ”‡˜‹‡™ ‘ –Š‡ „‡‡ˆ‹–• ‘ˆ ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••dzǡ –‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘—”ƒŽ ‘ˆ „‡•‹–›
ʹ͸ሺ—’’ŽͶሻǣʹͷԟʹͺǤ
‡Žƒ–‡†‡–ƒ„‘Ž‹…‹•‘”†‡”•ʹ
‘Ž’’ǡ Ǥǡ ‘Šǡ Ǥǡ ”‘š‡Žǡ Ǥǡ ‘”–‘ǡ Ǥǡ ƒ••„‡†‡”ǡ Ǥǡ ƒ† ‘‡™‡•–‡‹ǡ Ǥ ሺʹͲͲͺሻǤ ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ
‹…‡–‹˜‡Ǧ„ƒ•‡† ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š‡• ˆ‘” ™‡‹‰Š– Ž‘••ǡ ‘—”ƒŽ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡”‹…ƒ ‡†‹…ƒŽ ••‘…‹ƒ–‹‘
͵ͲͲሺʹʹሻǣʹ͸͵ͳȂʹ͸͵͹Ǥ
ሺʹͲͳʹሻǤƒ…–•Š‡‡–Ǥ‘”Ž†‡ƒŽ–Š”‰ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘Ǥ
ǣŠ––’ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ™Š‘Ǥ‹–Ȁ‡†‹ƒ…‡–”‡Ȁˆƒ…–•Š‡‡–•Ȁ‡Ȁሺ……‡••‡†…–‘„‡”ͲͷǡʹͲͳʹሻǤ
ͳ͹