Discussion Paper No. 581 - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
Transcription
Discussion Paper No. 581 - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 581 Unemployment Compensation Finance and Labor Market Rigidity Pierre Cahuc Franck Malherbet September 2002 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of Labor Unemployment Compensation Finance and Labor Market Rigidity Pierre Cahuc Université Paris 1-EUREQua, CREST, CEPR and IZA Bonn Franck Malherbet Université Paris 1-EUREQua and CREST Discussion Paper No. 581 September 2002 IZA P.O. Box 7240 D-53072 Bonn Germany Tel.: +49-228-3894-0 Fax: +49-228-3894-210 Email: iza@iza.org This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA’s research area The Future of Labor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent, nonprofit limited liability company (Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung) supported by the Deutsche Post AG. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its research networks, research support, and visitors and doctoral programs. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. The current research program deals with (1) mobility and flexibility of labor, (2) internationalization of labor markets, (3) welfare state and labor market, (4) labor markets in transition countries, (5) the future of labor, (6) evaluation of labor market policies and projects and (7) general labor economics. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available on the IZA website (www.iza.org) or directly from the author. IZA Discussion Paper No. 581 September 2002 ABSTRACT Unemployment Compensation Finance and Labor Market Rigidity* The systematic use of experience rating is an original feature of the U.S. unemployment benefit system. In most states, unemployment benefits are financed by taxing firms in proportion to their separations. Experience rating is a way to require employers to contribute to the payment of unemployment benefits they create through their firing decisions. It is striking that experience rating is absent from the unemployment compensation systems of other OECD countries, where benefits are usually financed by taxes on payrolls, paid by employers or employees, and by government contributions (Holmlund, 1998). Is experience rating only adapted to the U.S. labor market? Would it be suitable in other countries? At first glance, it is likely that experience rating is not desirable in many European labor markets characterized by high firing costs. We provide a simple matching model of a rigid labor market including firing costs, temporary jobs and a minimum wage in order to analyze the issue. Our analysis leads us to argue that experience rating is likely to reduce unemployment and to improve the welfare of low skilled workers in France, and more generally for low skilled workers in a typical rigid Continental European labor market. JEL Classification: Keywords: J41, J64, J65 unemployment benefits, job protection, matching models Corresponding author: Pierre Cahuc Université Paris 1- EUREQua Panthéon-Sorbonne 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital 75013 Paris France E-mail: cahuc@univ-paris1.fr * We thank Paul Beaudry, Jean-Pascal Benassy, Etienne Lehmann, Olivier L’Haridon, and André Zylberberg. W?|hL_U|L? Wkh v|vwhpdwlf xvh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv dq ruljlqdo ihdwxuh ri wkh X1V1 xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw v|vwhp1 Lq prvw vwdwhv/ xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv duh qdqfhg e| wd{lqj upv lq sursruwlrq wr wkhlu vhsdudwlrqv1 H{shulhqfh udwlqj lv d zd| wr uhtxluh hpsor|huv wr frqwulexwh wr wkh sd|phqw ri xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv wkh| fuhdwh wkurxjk wkhlu ulqj ghflvlrqv1 Lw lv vwulnlqj wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv devhqw iurp wkh xqhpsor|phqw frpshqvdwlrq v|vwhpv ri rwkhu RHFG frxqwulhv/ zkhuh ehqhwv duh xvxdoo| qdqfhg e| wd{hv rq sd|uroov/ sdlg e| hpsor|huv ru hpsor|hhv/ dqg e| jryhuqphqw frqwulexwlrqv +Kropoxqg/ 4<<;,1 Lv h{shulhqfh udwlqj rqo| dgdswhg wr wkh X1V1 oderu pdunhwB Zrxog lw eh vxlwdeoh lq rwkhu frxqwulhvB Lqghhg/ wkh X1V1 oderu pdunhw lv vshflf/ wr wkh h{whqw wkdw lw lv dozd|v frqvlghuhg dv ehlqj gudpdwlfdoo| h{leoh= Wkhuh lv qr mre surwhfwlrq +RHFG/ 4<<<, dqg wkh plqlpxp zdjh lv orz zlwk uhvshfw wr pdq| rwkhu RHFG frxqwulhv +RHFG/ 4<<;,1 Lv h{shulhqfh udwlqj vxlwdeoh rqo| rq d yhu| h{leoh oderu pdunhw/ dqg qrw ghvludeoh li wkh oderu pdunhw idfhv vwurqj mre surwhfwlrq dqg kljk plqlpxp zdjhB Pdq| frqwulexwlrqv kdyh ehhq ghyrwhg wr wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq xqhp0 sor|phqw dqg zhoiduh +vhh Kropoxqg/ 4<<;/ iru d vxuyh|,1 Ihogvwhlq +4<:9, kdv ehhq dprqj wkh uvw wr rhu d wkhruhwlfdo dqdo|vlv ri h{shulhqfh udw0 lqj1 Ihogvwhlq suhvhqwv d prgho ri whpsrudu| od|rv/ zklfk duh iuhtxhqw lq wkh X1V1 hfrqrp|1 Kh frqvlghuv wkh ehkdylru ri d up/ zlwk dq h{rjhqrxv qxpehu ri hpsor|hhv/ idflqj ghpdqg vkrfnv1 Kh dujxhv wkdw wkh xqhpsor|phqw lqvxudqfh vxevlg| fdxvhv od|rv zkhq wkh| zrxog qrw rwkhuzlvh kdsshq/ dqg pdjqlhv wkh vl}h ri wkh od|rv wkdw gr rffxu1 Ihogvwhlq frqfoxghv klv dqdo|vlv e| vwuhvvlqj wkdw _li wkhuh zhuh ixoo h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw lqvxu0 dqfh wd{ dqg li ehqhwv zhuh wd{hg olnh rwkhu lqfrph/ wkh vxevlg| wr whpsrudu| od|rv zrxog eh holplqdwhg1 Xqhpsor|phqw lqvxudqfh frxog wkhq frqwlqxh wr surylgh surwhfwlrq iru wkrvh zkr duh whpsrudulo| odlg r zlwkrxw dq| glvwruwlrq lq wkhlu ehkdylru% +Ihogvwhlq/ 4<:9/ s <89,1 Krzhyhu/ Ihogvwhlq*v frqfoxvlrq kdv ehhq fkdoohqjhg e| Exughww dqg Zuljkw +4<;<,/ zkr dujxh wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqfuhdvhv xqhpsor|phqw xqghu uhdvrqdeoh frqglwlrqv li wkh qxpehu ri hpsor|hhv lv qrw dq h{rjhqrxv qxpehu/ dv Ihogvwhlq dvvxphg/ exw lv fkrvhq rswlpdoo| e| wkh hpsor|hu1 Pdufhdx +4<<6, uhdfkhv forvh frqfoxvlrqv lq d iudphzrun lq zklfk wkhuh lv Frxuqrw frpshwlwlrq rq wkh pdunhw iru wkh jrrg surgxfhg e| upv1 Pdufhdx vkrzv wkdw li wkhuh lv iuhh hqwu| dqg h{lw/ dyhudjh lqgxvwuldo hpsor|phqw pd| eh d ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh h{shulhqfh udwlqj ehfdxvh wkh qxpehu ri upv lq wkh lqgxvwu| ghfuhdvhv zlwk wklv sdudphwhu1 Doo wkhvh sdshuv frqvlghu wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq whpsrudu| od|rv1 Lw lv dvvxphg wkdw d srro ri zrunhuv lv dwwdfkhg wr wkh up/ dqg gr qrw qg d mre hovhzkhuh zkhq xqhpsor|hg1 Dv Ihogvwhlq +4<:9, vwuhvvhg/ wklv dqdo|vlv lv olnho| wr eh uhohydqw lq wkh 5 pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru lq wkh X1V1/ exw whpsrudu| od|rv duh vfdufh lq prvw Hxurshdq oderu pdunhwv1 Dffruglqjo|/ vrph frqwulexwlrqv kdyh orrnhg dw wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq dq htxloleulxp prgho ri xqhpsor|phqw doorzlqj iru zrunhuv prelolw| dfurvv upv1 Lq wklv iudphzrun/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj kdv wkh vdph w|sh ri frqvhtxhqfh dv d frpelqdwlrq ri dq lqfuhdvh lq ulqj frvw dqg d ghfuhdvh lq wkh sd|uroo wd{1 Dv vkrzq e| Pruwhqvhq +4<<7,/ Ploodug dqg Pruwhqvhq +4<<:, dqg Pruwhqvhq dqg Slvvdulghv +4<<<d/e,/ dq lqfuhdvh lq ulqj frvwv kdv dq dpeljxrxv lpsdfw rq xqhpsor|phqw= Lw uhgxfhv erwk mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq1 Wkh ghfuhdvh lq wkh sd|uroo wd{ lv xvxdoo| ehqhfldo wr hpsor|phqw1 Ploodug dqg Pruwhqvhq +4<<:, qg wkdw lqfuhdvlqj h{shulhqfh udwlqj ghfuhdvhv xqhpsor|phqw iru uhdvrqdeoh sdudphwhuv ydoxhv lq d vhdufk dqg pdwfklqj prgho/ zlwk hqgrjhqrxv mre ghvwuxfwlrq dqg zdjhv edujdlqhg dw wkh up ohyho1 Dv Ploodug dqg Pruwhqvhq gr qrw h{solflwo| lqwurgxfh d edodqfhg exgjhw iru wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw v|vwhp/ wkh lqfuhdvh lq h{shulhqfh udwlqj kdv h{dfwo| wkh vdph hhfw rq xqhpsor|phqw dv d ulvh lq ulqj frvwv1 Dfwxdoo|/ lw fdq eh dujxhg wkdw lqwurgxflqj d edodqfhg exgjhw frqvwudlqw zrxog pdjqli| wkh ghfuhdvh lq xqhpsor|phqw gxh wr h{shulhqfh udwlqj/ vlqfh wkh sd|uroo wd{ vkrxog eh uhgxfhg e| wkh lqfuhdvh lq h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Iurp wklv srlqw ri ylhz/ Doeuhfkw dqg Yurpdq +4<<<, frqwulexwlrq lv ri sduwlfxodu lqwhuhvw ehfdxvh wkh| h{solflwo| lqwurgxfh d edodqfhg exgjhw frqvwudlqw iru wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw v|vwhp1 Wkh| h{dplqh wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq dq hflhqf| zdjh prgho zkhuh zrunhuv khwhurjhqhlw| jlyhv ulvh wr lpshuihfw prqlwrulqj dqg hqgrjhqrxv od|rv1 Wkh| frpsduh wzr vhoi0qdqflqj xqhpsor|phqw frpshqvdwlrq v|vwhpv= Rqh lq zklfk ehqhwv duh qdqfhg e| d sursruwlrqdo sd|uroo wd{ dqg dqrwkhu lq zklfk upv duh wd{hg lq sursruwlrq wr wkhlu vhsdudwlrqv1 Wkh| qg wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv idyrudeoh wr hpsor|phqw/ zdjh dqg surgxfwlrq iru dq| ohyho ri xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw1 Wkh uhdvrq ehlqj wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj/ zklfk lqfuhdvhv vhsdudwlrq frvwv/ lqgxfhv upv wr sd| kljkhu zdjhv lq rughu wr dyrlg od|rv gxh wr vklunlqj1 Wkxv/ Doeuhfkw dqg Yurpdq duh deoh wr vkrz wkdw rqh jhwv kljkhu zdjhv/ orzhu xqhpsor|phqw dqg kljkhu surgxfwlrq zlwk h{shulhqfh udwlqj iru uhohydqw sdudphwhuv ydoxhv1 Jhqhudoo|/ hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj |lhogv vxssruw wr Ihogvwhlq*v dqdo|vlv1 Wrsho +4<;6, hvwlpdwhv wkdw xqhpsor|phqw lqvxudqfh vxevlg| gxh wr sd|uroo wd{hv dffrxqwv iru pruh wkdq d txduwhu ri od|rv lq klv gdwd vhw1 Wkh vhulhv ri sdshuv ri Dqghuvrq dqg Ph|hu +4<<6/ 4<<7/ 5333, vkhgv oljkw rq wkh hhfwv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq d eurdg ydulhw| ri fdvhv lq wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1 Dqghuvrq dqg Ph|hu +5333, lv ri sduwlfxodu lqwhuhvw vlqfh wkh dxwkruv surylgh d ghwdlohg dqdo|vlv ri wkh 4<;7 Zdvklqjwrq vwdwh ohjlvodwlrq vzlwfk iurp d sd|uroo wd{ v|vwhp wr dq h{shulhqfh0udwhg v|vwhp1 Wklv qdwxudo h{shulphqw surylghv jrrg hylghqfh rq wkh hhfwv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj frpsduhg wr d sd|uroo wd{ v|vwhp dqg wkxv pd| khos hoderudwlqj d srwhqwldo uhirup ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv vfkhph lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh1 6 Ryhudoo/ wkh frqwulexwlrqv zklfk dqdo|}h wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq htxloleulxp xqhpsor|phqw prghov frqfoxgh wkdw lw lv d jrrg v|vwhp1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ lw vkrxog eh qrwlfhg wkdw wkhvh frqwulexwlrqv gr qrw dqdo|}h krz h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqwhudfwv zlwk rwkhu oderu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Wkh dlp ri rxu sdshu lv wr wdfnoh wklv lvvxh1 Lq wklv shuvshfwlyh/ zh xvh d vlp0 soh htxloleulxp vhdufk dqg pdwfklqj prgho/ edvhg rq Pruwhqvhq dqg Slvvdulghv +4<<7/ 4<<<d, iudphzrun/ zklfk wdnhv lqwr dffrxqw lpsruwdqw uljlglwlhv ri Hxurshdq oderu pdunhwv1 Pruh suh0 flvho|/ iroorzlqj Eodqfkdug dqg Odqglhu +5333, dqg Fdkxf dqg Srvwho0Ylqd| +5335,/ zh wdnh lqwr dffrxqw mre surwhfwlrq e| lqwurgxflqj erwk ulqj frvwv dqg whpsrudu| mrev/ zklfk sod| d yhu| lpsruwdqw uroh lq Hxurshdq frxqwulhv +vhh RHFG/ 4<<<,1 Zh dovr lqwurgxfh d plqlpxp zdjh1 Vhfwlrq 5 suhvhqwv wkh prgho wkdw zloo doorz xv wr plplf erwk h{leoh dqg uljlg oderu pdunhwv1 Vhfwlrq 6 lv ghyrwhg wr wkh dqdo|vlv ri wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq d h{leoh oderu pdunhw ~ X1V1 olnh ~ wkdw lv xvhg dv d ehqfkpdun wr xqghuvwdqg wkh lqxhqfhv ri oderu pdunhw uljlglwlhv rq wkh hflhqf| ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Vhfwlrq 7 vkhgv vrph oljkw rq wkh lqxhqfh ri oderu pdunhw uljlglwlhv dqg wulhv wr dvvhvv wkh ghvludelolw| ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq d sduwlfxodu oderu pdunhw riwhq frqvlghuhg dv yhu| uljlg= Wkh Iuhqfk oderu pdunhw1 Vhfwlrq 8 surylghv vrph frqfoxglqj frpphqwv1 2 Ai 4L_i* 2 Ai *@MLh 4@h!i| Zh frqvlghu dq hfrqrp| zlwk wzr jrrgv= Oderu dqg d qxphudluh jrrg surgxfhg wkdqnv wr oderu1 Wkhuh lv dq hqgrjhqrxv phdvxuh ri upv1 Hdfk up kdv rqo| rqh mre/ wkdw fdq eh hlwkhu oohg ru ydfdqw1 Wkh oderu irufh lv frpsrvhg ri d frqwlqxxp ri lqqlwh olyhg lqglylgxdov/ zklfk phdvxuh lv qrupdol}hg wr xqlw|1 Hdfk lqglylgxdo rhuv rqh xqlw ri oderu shu xqlw ri wlph1 Lqglylgxdov kdyh lghqwlfdo suhihuhqfhv/ uhsuhvhqwhg e| d frqfdyh xwlolw| ixqfwlrq zlwk vwdqgdug surshuwlhv/ ghqrwhg e| X +U,> zkhuh U vwdqgv iru wkh lqvwdqwdqhrxv lqfrph1 Lw lv dovr dvvxphg wkdw zrunhuv gr qrw vdyh dqg gr qrw kdyh dffhvv wr qdqfldo pdunhwv1 Wlph lv frqwlqxrxv dqg wkh ixwxuh lv glvfrxqwhg e| doo lqglylgxdov dw d {hg udwh u A 31 Ydfdqw mrev dqg xqhpsor|hg zrunhuv duh pdwfkhg wrjhwkhu lq sdluv wkurxjk dq lpshuihfw pdwfklqj surfhvv1 Wkh phdvxuh ri pdwfkhv shu xqlw ri wlph lv jlyhq e| wkh pdwfklqj ixqf0 wlrq P +y> x,> zkhuh y dqg x uhsuhvhqw wkh ydfdqf| dqg xqhpsor|phqw udwhv uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh pdwfklqj ixqfwlrq vdwlvhv wkh vwdqgdug surshuwlhv= Lw lv lqfuhdvlqj/ frqwlqxrxvo| glhuhqwldeoh/ krprjhqrxv ri ghjuhh rqh dqg |lhogv qr klulqj li wkh pdvv ri xqhpsor|hg zrunhuv ru ydfdqw mrev lv qlo1 Olqhdu krprjhqhlw| ri wkh pdwfklqj ixqfwlrq doorzv xv wr zulwh wkh udwh dw zklfk d ydfdqw mre phhwv dq xqhpsor|hg zrunhu dv p+x> y,@y @ p+,> zkhuh @ y@x vwdqgv iru wkh oderu pdu0 7 nhw wljkwqhvv udwlr1 Vlploduo|/ wkh h{lw udwh iurp xqhpsor|phqw uhdgv dv p+x> y,@x @ p+,1 Wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh pdwfklqj ixqfwlrq lpso| wkdw p+, dqg p+, duh ghfuhdvlqj dqg lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrqv ri wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv udwlr uhvshfwlyho|1 Iroorzlqj Eodqfkdug dqg Odqglhu +5333,/ lw lv dvvxphg wkdw doo qhz pdwfkhv vwduw zlwk surgxfwlylw| {f= Fkdqjhv lq surgxfwlylw| duh jryhuqhg e| d Srlvvrq surfhvv zlwk duulydo udwh iru mrev wkdw kdyh qrw |hw ehhq klw e| d surgxfwlylw| vkrfn1 Lq wkh hyhqw ri d vkrfn/ d qhz ydoxh ri surgxfwlylw| lv gudzq iurp d jhqhudo glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq I +{, zlwk vxssruw lq wkh udqjh ` 4> .4^/ vxfk wkdw wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri surgxfwlylw| +frqglwlrqdo rq mre frqwlqxdwlrq, lv odujhu wkdq {f= Diwhu wkh uvw surgxfwlylw| vkrfn/ qhz surgxfwlylw| vkrfnv/ gudzq iurp wkh vdph glvwulexwlrq I +{,> rffxu dffruglqj wr d Srlvvrq surfhvv zlwk duulydo udwh ? = Wklv vhw ri dvvxpswlrqv doorzv xv wr wdnh lqwr dffrxqw wkdw surgxfwlylw| lv jhqhudoo| odujhu rq mrev zlwk orqj whqxuh wkdq rq qhz mrev dqg wkdw mre vwdelolw| lqfuhdvhv zlwk whqxuh +vhh iru lqvwdqfh= Iduehu/ 4<<<,1 Dfwxdoo|/ wkhuh duh pdq| uhdvrqv wkdw fdq h{sodlq wklv skhqrphqrq= Iru lqvwdqfh/ ohduqlqj e| grlqj lpsolhv wkdw surgxfwlylw| dqg wkhq zdjhv ulvh zlwk vhqlrulw|/ rq0wkh0mre vhdufk fdq jlyh ulvh wr zdjh lqfuhdvhv/ lqfhqwlyhv lvvxhv pd| lqgxfh hpsor|huv wr rhu zdjhv lqfuhdvlqj zlwk vhqlrulw|1 Wkh prgho lv phdqw wr plplf erwk h{leoh X1V1 olnh dqg surwrw|slfdo uljlg Hxurshdq oderu pdunhwv1 Lq wklv shuvshfwlyh/ lw lv lpsruwdqw wr pdnh d vkdus glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq whpsrudu| mrev rq rqh kdqg/ dqg orqj0whup/ ru cvwdeoh* mrev/ rq wkh rwkhu kdqg1 Lq rxu hfrqrp|/ lw lv dvvxphg wkdw wzr w|shv ri mrev fdq frh{lvw1 Whpsrudu| mrev/ zlwk orz vhsdudwlrq frvwv/ zloo eh glvwlqjxlvkhg iurp orqj0whup mrev/ zlwk kljk ulqj frvwv1 Wklv vshflfdwlrq doorzv xv wr hpehg d zlgh udqjh ri w|slfdoo| suhfdulrxv oderu frqwudfwv/ vxfk dv vkruw whup frqwudfwv ru whpsrudu| hpsor|phqw zkrvh xvh kdv frqvlghudeo| vsuhdg lq prvw frqwlqhqwdo Hxurshdq oderu pdunhwv ryhu wkh odvw ghfdgh1 Lw lv dvvxphg wkdw vwdeoh mrev duh uhjxodu w|sh ri frqwudfwv zlwk qr suhghwhuplqhg ohqjwk1 Rqfh d vkrfn kdv rffxuuhg/ d vwdeoh mre lv hlwkhu whuplqdwhg ru frqwlqxhg dffruglqj wr wkh qhz surgxfwlylw| ydoxh1 Wkh ghvwuxfwlrq frvw ri dq| vwdeoh mre dprxqwv wr ir . r/ zkhuh ir lv wkh ulqj wd{ uhglvwulexwhg wkurxjk oxps vxp wudqvihuv wr doo wkh zrunhuv/ dqg r lv d wd{ xvhg wr qdqfh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Lq wklv vlpsoh iudphzrun/ r uhsuhvhqwv wkh h{shulhqfh udwlqj vfkhgxoh iru vwdeoh mrev1 Lw lv zruwk qrwlflqj wkdw/ lq jhqhudo/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj vfkhgxohv zklfk kdyh ehhq lpsohphqwhg duh pruh frpsoh{ wkdq d vlpsoh ulqj frvw vfkhgxoh1 Lq dfwxdo h{shulhqfh udwlqj vfkhgxohv/ wkh wd{ sdlg e| d up ghshqgv rq wkh qxpehu ri sdvw od|rv/ rq wkh wrwdo zdjh eloo sdlg wr wkh zrunhuv vwloo hpsor|hg e| wkh up/ exw dovr rq wkh gxudwlrq ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw vshoov h{shulhqfhg e| odlg r zrunhuv1 Wkhuh h{lvwv glhuhqw vfkhgxohv +iru lqvwdqfh/ wkh ehqhw udwlr v|vwhp dqg wkh uhvhuyh udwlr v|vwhp,/ zklfk duh edvhg xsrq glhuhqw 8 frpelqdwlrqv ri wkhvh lqjuhglhqwv1 Dv lw zloo dsshdu ehorz/ wd{hv xvhg wr qdqfh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv gr klqjh rq wkh gxudwlrq ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw vshoov h{shulhqfhg e| odlg r zrunhuv lq rxu iudphzrun1 Krzhyhu/ iru wkh vdnh ri vlpsolflw|/ zh frqvlghu d phpru|ohvv h{shulhqfh udwlqj vfkhgxoh21 Dv rxu irfxv lv rq vwhdg| vwdwhv/ wklv dvvxpswlrq grhv qrw vhhp wr eh yhu| uhvwulfwlyh1 Lw zrxog eh zruwk lqwurgxflqj h{shulhqfh udwlqj v|vwhpv zlwk phpru| lq rughu wr dqdo|}h wkh f|folfdo surshuwlhv ri wkh oderu pdunhw1 Whpsrudu| mrev vwduw zlwk wkh vdph surgxfwlylw| ohyho/ {f> dv vwdeoh mrev1 Rqfh wkh uvw surgxfwlylw| vkrfn kdv rffxuuhg/ d whpsrudu| mre lv hlwkhu ghvwur|hg ru wudqviruphg lqwr d vwdeoh mreb 1 Ghvwuxfwlrq frvwv ri whpsrudu| mrev dprxqw wr i| . | ir . r> zkhuh i| ir lv wkh ulqj wd{ uhglvwulexwhg wkurxjk oxps vxp wudqvihuv wr doo wkh zrunhuv/ dqg | r lv wkh wd{ xvhg wr qdqfh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Wkhvh dvvxpswlrqv doorz xv wr eh deoh wr uhsuhvhqw d vlwxdwlrq lq zklfk whpsrudu| mrev kdyh d olplwhg gxudwlrq dqg fdq eh wudqviruphg lqwr vwdeoh mrev zlwk kljk vhsdudwlrq frvwv1 Lqghhg/ lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh/ whpsrudu| mrev kdyh wr eh hlwkhu wudqviruphg ru ghvwur|hg diwhu d fhuwdlq gxudwlrq wkdw klqjhv rq fulwhuld wkdw glhu dfurvv frxqwulhv1 Wkh klulqj surfhvv lv vxssrvhg wr eh wkh vdph iru erwk vwdeoh dqg whpsrudu| mrev1 Reylrxvo|/ whpsrudu| mrev duh dozd|v suhihuuhg e| upv/ ehfdxvh wkh| ehdu ohvv dgplqlvwudwlyh ulqj frvwv wkdq vwdeoh mrev1 Wkhuhiruh/ zh ghhp uhdolvwlf wr dvvxph wkdw wkh w|sh ri frqwudfw wr eh rhuhg e| wkh up lv vxemhfw wr jryhuqphqw*v dssurydo1 Klulqj rq whpsrudu| mrev lv judqwhg wr dq h{rjhqrxv iudfwlrq s 5 ^3> 4` ri qhz pdwfkhv/ wkh uhpdlqlqj sduw ehlqj vwdeoh mrev1 Wkh ghflvlrqv ri rshqlqj d qhz ydfdqw mre vorw ru whuplqdwlqj d mre ri hlwkhu w|sh duh edvhg rq wkh dvvhw ydoxhv ri wkh ydulrxv rswlrqv1 Wkh lqvwdqwdqhrxv frvw ri d ydfdqw mre lv ghqrwhg e| k= Lwv lv oohg dw udwh p+,1 Zlwk suredelolw| s wkh mre zloo eh whpsrudu|/ dqg zloo |lhog dq h{shfwhg suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ghqrwhg e| |= Zlwk d frpsohphqwdu| suredelolw|/ +4 s,> wkh mre zloo eh vwdeoh/ dqg zloo |lhog dq h{shfwhg suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ghqrwhg e| ?r +qv vwdqgv iru qhz vwdeoh,= Wkxv/ wkh ydoxh ri d ydfdqw mre/ ghqrwhg e| > vroyhv= u @ k . p+, isPd{ ^| > ` . +4 s,Pd{ ^?r > ` j = +4, Ohw xv ghqrwh e| z wkh zdjh/ wkdw zloo eh vkrzq wr eh wkh vdph rq hyhu| mre jlyhq rxu dvvxpswlrqv rq zdjh irupdwlrq1 Wkhq/ ghqrwlqj e| r+{, wkh ydoxh ri d vwdeoh mre/ zlwk fxuuhqw surgxfwlylw| {> wkdw kdv douhdg| ehhq klw e| d vkrfn/ | vroyhv= ] n" u| @ {f z . Pd{ ^r +{, > | i|` gI +{, | = +5, 3" t u@h @t i @hi @@hi @** |i T@Tiht _iL|i_ |L i Tihi?Ui h@|?} @_LT| |t @tt4T|L? Ai @?@*)tt Lu |i _)?@4U UL?ti^i?Uit Lu i Tihi?Ui h@|?} t)t|i4 | 4i4Lh) t Uih|@?*) @ ih) ?|ihit|?} i |i?tL? |L UL?t_ih ? u|hi Lh! 2 9 Vlploduo|/ ?r vroyhv= ] n" u?r @ {f z . Pd{ ^r +{, > r ir` gI +{, ?r > +6, 3" zkhuh r+{, vdwlvhv= ] n" ur +{, @ { z . Pd{ ^r +{, > r ir ` gI +{, r +{, = +7, 3" Mre fuhdwlrq lv jryhuqhg e| wkh dvvxpswlrq ri iuhh hqwu| rqwr wkh vhdufk pdunhw1 Iuhh hqwu| gulyhv wkh ydoxh ri d ydfdqw mre vorw/ > wr }hur lq hdfk srlqw ri wlph1 Wkh iuhh hqwu| frqglwlrq lpsolhv/ wrjhwkhu zlwk htxdwlrq +4,= k @ s . +4 s, = +8, ?r | p+, Wklv frqglwlrq vkrzv wkdw wkh h{shfwhg frvw ri d ydfdqf|/ k@p+,> lv qhfhvvdulo| htxdo wr wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri d qhz pdwfk/ wkdw |lhogv | zlwk suredelolw| s dqg ?r zlwk suredelolw| +4 s,= Mrev duh ghvwur|hg li wkhlu dvvhw ydoxh lv orzhu wkdq wkhlu ghvwuxfwlrq frvw1 Htxdwlrq +7, vkrzv wkdw r +{, lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh surgxfwlylw| sdudphwhu {= Wkhuhiruh/ vwdeoh mrev duh ghvwur|hg zkhq wkh| duh klw e| d edg surgxfwlylw| vkrfn/ zklfk ohyho lv ehorz dq hqgrjhqrxv wkuhvkrog ydoxh/ ghqrwhg e| {r/ ghqhg e| r +{r , @ ir r = Xvlqj htxdwlrq +7,/ wklv frqglwlrq lv htxlydohqw wr= ] n" {r @ z . u + r . ir , +9, u . %r +{ {r ,gI +{,= Wkh vdph uhdvrqlqj dssolhv wr whpsrudu| mrev= Wkh| duh ghvwur|hg li wkhlu surgxfwlylw| { lv ehorz wkh hqgrjhqrxv wkuhvkrog/ ghqrwhg e| {|/ ghqhg e| r +{|, @ i| |= Xvlqj htxdwlrqv +5, dqg +9,/ wklv frqglwlrq lv htxlydohqw wr {| @ {r . +u . ,^+ r . ir , + | . i|,` = +:, Lw fdq eh vhhq/ iurp htxdwlrq +:,/ wkdw wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| iru wkh wudqvirupdwlrq ri whpsrudu| mrev lqwr vwdeoh mrev/ {|> lv odujhu wkdq {r> wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| iru vwdeoh mrev/ li dqg rqo| li ulqj frvwv duh odujhu iru vwdeoh mrev wkdq iru whpsrudu| mrev1 Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh ghqlwlrqv +5,/ +6, dqg +7, ri wkh ydoxhv ri whpsrudu| dqg vwdeoh mrev lqwr wkh iuhh hqwu| frqglwlrq +8,/ dqg xvlqj wkh ghqlwlrqv ri wkh wkuhvkrog ydoxhv {r dqg {|> |lhogv d uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv > wkh zdjh z> dqg wkuhvkrog ydoxhv {r dqg {|/ wkdw uhdgv dv= k @ 4 { z . s ] n" { {r i gI +{, I +{ ,+i . , +;, r r | | | p+, u. f u. %| ] n" { {r gI . +4 s, + { , + i . , r r u. 0r : Wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh ri wklv htxdwlrq lv wkh h{shfwhg frvw ri d ydfdqw mre dqg wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri d oohg mre1 Lq htxloleulxp/ wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv/ > wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylwlhv ri qhz mrev dqg vwdeoh mrev/ ghqrwhg uhvshfwlyho| e| {| dqg {r / duh ghqhg e| htxdwlrqv +9,/ +:, dqg +;,/ iru d jlyhq ydoxh ri wkh zdjh1 Oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv dqg uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylwlhv ghwhuplqh wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri mrev dqg wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh wkurxjk wkhlu lqxhqfh rq oderu pdunhw rzv1 Iorzv Oderu pdunhw rzv sod| d nh| uroh lq wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh/ zklfk ghshqgv rq wkh udwhv ri mre ghvwuxfwlrq dqg mre wudqvirupdwlrq dv zhoo dv wkh pdvv ri ydfdqw mrev1 Ohw xv qrwlfh wkdw wkh h{lw udwh iurp xqhpsor|phqw uhdgv dv= P +y> x,@x @ p+,= Ohw xv ghqrwh e| w wkh pdvv ri whpsrudu| mrev dqg e| v wkh pdvv ri vwdeoh mrev wkdw kdyh ehhq klw e| d surgxfwlylw| vkrfnv1 Wkh vwhdg| vwdwh rzv htxloleulxp lpsolhv wkdw wkh pdvv ri hqwulhv lqwr xqhpsor|phqw dprxqwv wr wkh pdvv ri h{lwv iurp xqhpsor|phqw= p+,x @ ^I +{| ,w . I +{r ,+4 x w v,` . I +{r ,v= +<, Pruhryhu/ lq vwhdg| vwdwh/ wkh rxwrzv dqg lqrzv lqwr whpsrudu| mrev duh htxdo/ zklfk uhdgv dv= p+,xs @ w= +43, Vlploduo|/ wkh htxdolw| ri rxwrzv dqg lqrzv lqwr qhz vwdeoh mrev +wkdw kdyh qrw |hw ehhq klw e| d vkrfn, uhdgv= p+,x+4 s, @ +4 x w v, = Wkh wkuhh odvw htxdwlrqv lpso|= x@ k I +{r , 4 . Rw6Ew k l I +{r , . p+,^4 sI +{|, +4 s,I +{r,`` +44, +45, Htxdwlrq +45, lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv I +{| ,> I +{r , dqg I +{r ,/ exw ghfuhdvhv zlwk uhvshfw wr p+,> wkh h{lw udwh iurp xqhp0 sor|phqw1 Ohw xv qrz dqdo|}h krz wkh htxloleulxp ydoxhv ri wkhvh yduldeohv duh lqxhqfhg e| vxfk ihdwxuhv ri wkh oderu pdunhw dv zdjh vhwwlqj/ mre surwhfwlrq dqg wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw v|vwhp1 ; 22 N?i4T*L)4i?| Mi?i|t @?_ @}i ti||?} Xqhpsor|hg zrunhuv jhw dq lqvwdqwdqhrxv lqfrph pdgh ri wkuhh hohphqwv1 Iluvw/ dq h{rjhqrxv lqfrph/ ghqrwhg e| }> frplqj iurp wkhlu rzq dfwlylw| +krph surgxfwlrq/ ohlvxuh111,1 Vhfrqg/ oxps vxp wudqvihuv uhvxowlqj iurp ulqj frvwv i| dqg ir zklfk duh qrw ghyrwhg wr qdqfh xq0 hpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Wklug/ xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv/ ghqrwhg e| e= Xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv duh qdqfhg wkdqnv wr wzr lqvwuxphqwv= D wd{/ ghqrwhg e| > sdlg e| hdfk hpsor|hu rq hdfk oohg mre/ dqg d wd{ sdlg zkhq d mre lv ghvwur|hg/ ghqrwhg e| | dqg r iru d whpsrudu| mre dqg d vwdeoh mre uhvshfwlyho|1 Dv lw kdv douhdg| ehhq vwuhvvhg/ wklv vhfrqg w|sh ri wd{ lv lqwurgxfhg lq rughu wr hydoxdwh wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Dffruglqjo|/ wkh h{shqglwxuh ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw v|vwhp lv xe> zkhuhdv lwv uhvrxufhv shu xqlw ri wlph duh= E @ +4 x, . r I +{r ,^v . +4 x v w,` . | I +{| ,w +46, Pdwfklqj prghov zlwk d edodqfhg exgjhw frqvwudlqw dqg d jlyhq uhsodfhphqw udwlr jhqhudoo| h{klelw pxowlsoh htxloleuld +Urfkhwhdx/ 4<<<,1 Lq rughu wr dyrlg wklv sureohp/ zh vkdoo khqfhiruwk orrn dw wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq xqhpsor|phqw dqg zhoiduh iru d jlyhq ohyho ri h{shqglwxuh E> dvvxplqj d edodqfhg exgjhw1 Wklv doorzv xv wr orrn iru wkh rswlpdo ghjuhh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj/ iru dq| ohyho ri h{shqglwxuh/ dffruglqj wr d zhoo ghqhg fulwhulrq/ zklfk fdq eh hlwkhu zhoiduh ru xqhpsor|phqw1 Lw lv zruwk qrwlflqj wkdw dvvxplqj wkdw wkh exgjhw E lv jlyhq dqg edodqfhg lpsolhv wkdw xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw e lv hqgrjhqrxv= Lw lv zruwk E@x= Pruhryhu/ li | dqg r duh h{rjhqrxv sdudphwhuv/ lv qhfhvvdulo| dq hqgrjhqrxv yduldeoh/ zklfk edodqfhv wkh uhtxluhg ohyho ri h{shqglwxuh1 Li | dqg r duh doo htxdo wr }hur/ wkhuh lv qr h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Li wkh| duh vxfk wkdw lv zruwk }hur/ wkhuh lv ixoo h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Hpsor|hg zrunhuv jhw d zdjh ghqrwhg e| z= Lq rxu ehqfkpdun fdvh/ zklfk uhsuhvhqwv d h{leoh oderu pdunhw zlwk qhlwkhu ulqj frvw qru plqlpxp zdjh/ lw lv dvvxphg wkdw wkh zdjh lv vhw e| hpsor|huv1 Wklv vlpsoh dvvxpswlrq doorzv xv wr rewdlq d vlwxdwlrq lq zklfk doo zrunhuv uhfhlyh wkh vdph zdjh/ htxdo wr e . }= Wklv dvvxpswlrq pd| kdyh vrph lpsruwdqw gudzedfnv dw uvw jodqfh1 Iluvw/ lw lv dgplwwhgo| ohvv jhqhudo wkdq dvvxplqj zdjh edujdlqlqj/ dv lw lv grqh lq prvw pdwfklqj prghov ri wkh oderu pdunhw1 Krzhyhu/ lw vkrxog eh qrwlfhg wkdw zh zdqw wr orrn dw wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh suhvhqfh ri d plqlpxp zdjh1 Lqwurgxflqj d plqlpxp zdjh lq d prgho zlwk zdjh glvshuvlrq/ dv lw lv wkh fdvh li zdjhv duh edujdlqhg ryhu/ jlyhv ulvh wr frpsoh{lwlhv +Fdkxf dqg ]|oehuehuj/ 4<<<, wkdw zh zdqw wr dyrlg wr eh deoh wr irfxv rq frpsuhkhqvleoh phfkdqlvpv1 Vhfrqg/ dvvxplqj wkdw zrunhuv gr qrw jhw dq| vkduh ri wkh txdvl0uhqw |lhoghg e| oohg mrev jlyhv ulvh wr d yhu| lqhflhqw doorfdwlrq/ zlwk wrr pdq| mrev lq htxloleulxp +vhh Krvlrv/ 4<<3 dqg Slvvdulghv/ 5333,1 Iurp wklv srlqw ri ylhz/ lw zrxog kdyh < ehhq pruh uhohydqw wr dvvxph wkdw zdjhv zhuh ghwhuplqhg wkurxjk d zdjh srvwlqj surfhvv zklfk |lhogv dq hflhqw rxwfrph/ wkdw pd{lpl}hv wkh h{shfwhg xwlolw| ri xqhpsor|hg zrunhuv/ dv lq Prhq +4<<:,/ ru Dfhprjox dqg Vklphu +4<<<,1 Krzhyhu/ frpsxwlqj d zdjh srvwlqj htxloleulxp lq d pdwfklqj prgho zlwk ulvn dyhuvlrq dqg hqgrjhqrxv mre ghvwuxfwlrq lv d frpsoh{ lvvxh wkdw lv eh|rqg wkh vfrsh ri wklv sdshu/ ghyrwhg wr wkh dqdo|vlv ri wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri oderu pdunhw uljlglwlhv rq wkh hflhqf| ri glhuhqw xqhpsor|phqw frpshqvdwlrq qdqfh vfkhphv1 Wklug/ jlyhq rxu dvvxpswlrq/ zrunhuv gr qrw ehdu dq| ulvn lq wkh h{leoh hfrqrp|/ vlqfh wkh| duh mxvw sdlg wkhlu uhvhuydwlrq zdjh zkdwhyhu wkh| gr1 Dffruglqjo|/ rqh pd| zrqghu zkhwkhu lw lv zruwk dqdo|}lqj xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv lq vxfk d iudphzrun1 Rq wklv sduwlfxodu lvvxh/ zh dujxh wkdw wklv qrw d sureohp dv idu dv zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq wkh qdqflqj ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw v|vwhp dqg qrw lq wkh ghvljq ri wkh rswlpdo ehqhwv wkdw zrunhuv vkrxog jhw1 Pruhryhu/ zh vkdoo vhh wkdw xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv fdq eh zhoiduh lpsurylqj ehfdxvh wkh| lqxhqfh zdjhv/ dqg wkdw rxu dvvxpswlrq doorzv xv wr looxvwudwh lq d vlpsoh zd| wkh uhvsrqvh ri zdjhv wr xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Dfwxdoo|/ rxu vlpsoh dvvxpswlrq wxuqv rxw wr eh uhohydqw iru rxu sxusrvh/ zklfk lv phuho| wr xqghuvwdqg wkh lpsdfw ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh suhvhqfh ri h{leoh zdjhv lq rughu wr vhh zkdw fkdqjhv duh lqwurgxfhg e| wkh plqlpxp zdjh dqg ulqj frvwv1 , Tihi?Ui h@|?} L? @ i M*i *@MLh 4@h!i| Rxu ehqfkpdun fdvh lv d h{leoh oderu pdunhw zlwk d frpshwlwlyh zdjh dqg qr mre surwhfwlrq1 Pdq| frqwulexwlrqv kdyh vkrzq wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj kdv d srvlwlyh hhfw rq hpsor|phqw dqg zhoiduh lq vxfk d frqwh{w1 Rxu dqdo|vlv fdq eh vsolw lq wzr sduwv1 Iluvw/ zh ehjlq wr vwxg| wkh wkhruhwlfdo surshuwlhv ri wkh prgho zkhq dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh h{shulhqfh udwlqj wd{ udwh rffxuv1 Vhfrqg/ zh dlp dw qh wxqlqj wkh wkhruhwlfdo dqdo|vlv zlwk vrph frpsxwdwlrqdo h{huflvhv1 AiLhi|U@* @?@*)tt Ohw xv ehjlq wr dvvxph wkdw wkhuh lv qr ulqj frvw +i| @ ir @ 3, dqg wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj dssolhv wr doo mrev/ + | @ r, lq d frqwh{w lq zklfk wkh zdjh lv h{leoh1 Lq wklv vlpsoh fdvh/ whpsrudu| dqg vwdeoh mrev duh lghqwlfdo1 Wkhq/ wkh ydoxh ri s> wkh vkduh ri qhz pdwfkhv wkdw |lhog whpsrudu| mrev/ lv zruwkohvv/ dqg wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| lv wkh vdph iru doo mrev= {r @ {| 1 Htxdwlrqv +9,/ +;,/ +<, dqg +46, lpso| wkdw wkh htxloleulxp ydoxhv ri wkh oderu pdunhw W? T@h|U*@hc i4T*L)iht U@??L| @?) 4Lhi Lgih UL?|h@U|t | @ UL?t|@?| @}i L?*)c MiU@ti tU UL?|h@U|t i?|@* ?iUi?| tiT@h@|L?t ,4T*L)iht L*_ @i |L TLt| UL?|h@U|t |@| tTiUu) @}it @?_ tiih@?Ui T@)4i?|t 43 wljkwqhvv dqg wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| duh ghqhg e| wkh wzr iroorzlqj htxdwlrqv= k @ {f {r +47, r p+, u. {r @ E ^I +{r , . p+,` 4 . 4 p+, I +{r , ] n" +{ {r , g{ +48, ^u . I +{r ,` r u. %r Wkh htxloleulxp lv uhsuhvhqwhg rq Iljxuh 4 lq wkh +> {r, sodqh1 Wkh htxloleulxp ydoxhv ri wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv dqg wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| {r duh ghwhuplqhg e| wkh lqwhuvhfwlrq ri d grzqzdugv vorslqj mre fuhdwlrq fxuyh +htxdwlrq +47,, dqg dq xszdug vorslqj mre ghvwuxfwlrq fxuyhe +htxdwlrq +48,,1 Lqwxlwlyho|/ wkh mre fuhdwlrq fxuyh kdv d qhjdwlyh vorsh ehfdxvh d kljkhu uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| whqgv wr lqfuhdvh wkh udwh ri mre ghvwuxfwlrq1 Dffruglqjo|/ d kljkhu uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| iru frqwlqxdwlrq ri vwdeoh mrev hqwdlov d vkruwhu h{shfwhg gxudwlrq ri mrev1 Wkxv/ li wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw|/ {r> lv lqfuhdvhg/ h{shfwhg surwv iru qhz mrev duh idoolqj r/ zklfk lqgxfhv hqwuhsuhqhxuv wr fuhdwh ihzhu mrev/ wkdw/ lq wxuq/ ohdgv wr d ghfuhdvh lq wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv1 Wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq fxuyh kdv d srvlwlyh vorsh/ ehfdxvh dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv whqgv wr lpsuryh zrunhuv* rxwvlgh rssruwxqlwlhv/ dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wr udlvh wkh h{lw udwh iurp xqhpsor|phqw/ wkh h{shfwhg xwlolw| ri xqhpsor|hg zrunhuv/ dqg zdjhv1 Wkxv/ li wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv lv udlvhg/ wkh h{shfwhg surwv duh idoolqj r dqg wkh uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| lv lqfuhdvhg/ vr wkdw pruh mrev duh whuplqdwhg1 Qrz/ ohw xv orrn dw wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri d ulvh lq h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Wkhvh frqvhtxhqfhv duh ghslfwhg rq Iljxuh 41 Lw lqgxfhv d pryh iurp vwhdg| vwdwh htxloleulxp D wr vwhdg| vwdwh htxloleulxp E1 Dq lqfuhdvh lq h{shulhqfh udwlqj ghfuhdvhv wkh mre uhvhuydwlrq surgxfwlylw| {r iru dq| jlyhq ydoxh ri wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv/ zklfk fruuhvsrqgv wr dq xszdug pryh ri wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq fxuyh1 Iurp wklv srlqw ri ylhz/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj dfwv olnh d ulqj frvw wkdw fuhdwhv oderu krduglqj1 Lw fdq dovr eh fkhfnhg wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj ghfuhdvhv mre fuhdwlrq/ ehfdxvh lw lqfuhdvhv wkh frvw ri mre ghvwuxfwlrq1 Dffruglqjo|/ wkh mre fuhdwlrq fxuyh lv vkliwlqj grzq/ dv vkrzq e| Iljxuh 41 Rqh pxvw nhhs lq plqg wkdw wklv phfkdqlvp wdnhv dffrxqw ri wkh exgjhw htxloleulxp ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw frpshqvdwlrq v|vwhp/ zklfk glhuv iurp wkh dqdo|vlv surylghg e| Ploodug dqg Pruwhqvhq +4<<:,1 Ryhudoo/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj glplqlvkhv erwk wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq ri vwdeoh mrev dqg wkh oderu pdunhw wljkwqhvv1 Wkhuhiruh/ lwv hhfw rq xqhpsor|phqw lv dpeljxrxv dqg lw lv qhfhvvdu| wr qh wxqh rxu uhvxowv xvlqj frpsxwdwlrqdo h{huflvhv1 W| U@? Mi i@t*) UiU!i_ |@| |i LM _it|hU|L? Uhi t T@h_ t*LT?} u |i ?i4T*L)4i?| h@|i t *Lih |@? DfI `i @tt4i |@| |t UL?_|L? t u***i_ e 44 q D+ts D+ts Job destructio A B Job creation x' s xs x Iljxuh 4= Hhfwv ri dq lqfuhdvh lq h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh h{leoh oderu pdunhw1 Lw lv dovr zruwk jlylqj vrph klqwv rq wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq zhoiduh lq wkh h{leoh hfrqrp|1 Lw fdq hdvlo| eh xqghuvwrrg wkdw zrunhuv/ zkr doo jhw wkh vdph lqvwdqwdqhrxv xwlolw| X +e . }, @ X . } / ehqhw iurp srvlwlyh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Lqghhg/ htxdwlrqv +<,/ +47, dqg +48, lpso| wkdw dq lqfuhdvh lq E> zklfk pryhv wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq fxuyh wrzdugv wkh erwwrp lq Iljxuh 4/ hqwdlov dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh1 Pruh irupdoo|/ rqh jhwv= 3 ? gx@gE ?? 4= Dv g+E@x,@gE @ +4@x,^4 +gx@gE ,+E@x,` > wkh idfw wkdw 3 ? gx@gE ?? 4 dqg x wdnhv d srvlwlyh qlwh ydoxh dv E $ 3> lpsolhv wkdw Olp g+E@x,@gE @ 4@x A 3= Dffruglqjo|/ <f lq rxu iudphzrun/ lw lv zruwk lqwurgxflqj srvlwlyh ydoxhv ri xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Exw/ iru srvlwlyh ydoxhv ri xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv/ wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh lv wrr kljk lq wkh devhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj/ ehfdxvh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv lqgxfh d glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq wkh vrfldo ydoxh ri mrev vxusoxv/ zklfk rewdlqv e| frpsdulvrq ri wkh surgxfwlylw| ri wkh mre/ {> wr wkh surgxfwlylw| rxwvlgh wkh pdunhw/ }> dqg wkh sulydwh ydoxh ri mrev vxusoxv/ zklfk lv ghulyhg iurp wkh frpsdulvrq ri wkh mre surgxfwlylw| iuhh ri wd{hv/ { > wr wkh zrunhuv uhvhuydwlrq zdjh/ e . }= Lq rughu wr pdnh wklv srlqw fohdu/ ohw xv frqvlghu/ iru wkh vdnh ri vlpsolflw|/ d vwdwlf hqylurqphqw1 Lq wkdw fdvh/ hflhqf| uhtxluhv wkdw doo mrev zlwk { } frqwlqxh/ exw wkh sulydwh ghflvlrqv ri hpsor|huv lpso| wkdw wkh| ghvwur| mrev vxfk wkdw { ? } . e= Dffruglqjo|/ lw dsshduv wkdw xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv lqgxfh d glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq wkh sulydwh dqg wkh hflhqw mre ghvwuxfwlrq ghflvlrqv iru wzr uhdvrqv1 Iluvw/ wkh vfdo h{whuqdolw|/ vwuhvvhg e| Ihogvwhlq +4<:9,/ dulvhv/ vlqfh hpsor|huv zkr uh zrunhuv gr qrw wdnh dffrxqw ri wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh wd{ lqgxfhg e| wkhlu dfwlrq lq wkh devhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Dffruglqjo|/ hpsor|huv uh wrr pdq| zrunhuv/ zklfk lpsolhv d wrr 45 kljk ydoxh ri wkh wd{ > dqg wrr pdq| mre ghvwuxfwlrqv1 Vhfrqg/ wkh uhvhuydwlrq zdjh/ z @ e . }> lv lqfuhdvhg e| xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv1 Wklv dovr ohdgv wr wrr pdq| mre ghvwuxfwlrqv1 Iru wkhvh wzr uhdvrqvD/ wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh lv wrr kljk li wkhuh duh srvlwlyh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv dqg qr h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh h{leoh hfrqrp|1 Wkdw lv zk| lw lv zruwk xvlqj h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Lq vxp/ lq rxu ehqfkpdun hfrqrp|/ lw dsshduv wkdw wkh zhoiduh ri zrunhuv fdq eh pd{lpl}hg wkdqnv wr d frpelqdwlrq ri srvlwlyh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv dqg h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 2 L4T|@|L?@* i ihUtit Rxu frpsxwdwlrqdo h{huflvhv looxvwudwh wkh hhfwv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq d pruh vwulqjhqw pdqqhu1 Wkh| vxjjhvw wkdw vrph srvlwlyh h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv idyrudeoh wr erwk hpsor|phqw dqg zhoiduh iru d odujh udqjh ri sodxvleoh sdudphwhuv ydoxhv1 Vlqfh wkh X1V1 pdunhw grhv kdyh h{shulhqfh udwlqj/ zh vwduw zlwk d fdoleudwlrq ri wkh h{leoh pdunhw prgho iru wkh X1V1/ lq wkh olqh ri Pruwhqvhq dqg Slvvdulghv +4<<<d/e,1 D pdwfklqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh Free0Grxjodv irup lv dvvxphg/ vxfk wkdw p+y> x, @ yfDxfD= Wkh glvwulexwlrq ri lglrv|qfudwlf vkrfnv lv dvvxphg wr eh xqlirup rq wkh vxssruw ^3> 4` = Wkh surgxfwlylw| rq qhz mrev {f lv zruwk 3=: dqg wkh dyhudjh surgxfwlylw| iru mrev douhdg| klw e| vkrfnv dprxqwv wr 3=;4= Wklv lv lq dffrugdqfh zlwk wkh dvvxpswlrq vwdwlqj wkdw surgxfwlylw| lqfuhdvhv zlwk mre whqxuh1 Zh dvvxph d FUUD xwlolw| ixqfwlrq= X +U, @ U3j @+4 ,> zlwk @ 4=8= Wkh wlph xqlw lv wkh txduwhu1 Sdudphwhuv > > k> dqg E duh fkrvhq vr wkdw wkh vwhdg| vwdwh lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkh prgho pdwfk uhdvrqdeoh ydoxhv iru wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh/ wkh xqhpsor|phqw vshoo/ wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh dqg wkh uhsodfhphqw udwlr1 Qdpho|/ wkh edvholqh sdudphwhuv ydoxh xvhg lq rxu frpsxwdwlrqdo h{huflvh/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 4/ dlpv dw pdwfklqj wkh X1V1 oderu pdunhw iru orz vnloohg zrunhuv zkrvh hgxfdwlrq dwwdlqphqw lv qr pruh wkdq d kljk vfkrro glsorpd1 Iru wkrvh zrunhuv/ wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh dyhudjhv derxw ;=8( lq 5334 +Exuhdx ri Oderu Vwdwlvwlfv/ 5335,1 Wkh xqhpsor|phqw vshoo dprxqwv wr d elw ohvv wkdq rqh txduwhu dqg wkh uhsodfhphqw udwlr/ e@z> zruwk 88( +zklfk lv frpsdwleoh zlwk wkh dyhudjh qhw uhsodfhphqw udwlr iru wkh X1V1 dffruglqj wr wkh RHFG gdwd= Pduwlq/ 4<<9,/ zklfk lpsolhv wkdw E @ 3=3651 Lw vkrxog eh qrwlfhg wkdw > } dqg k uhdfk olnho| ydoxhv wkdw duh lq wkh udqjh ri wkrvh xvxdoo| fkrvhq e| rwkhu fdoleudwlrqv ri pdwfklqj prghov +Ploodug dqg Pruwhqvhq/ 4<<:/ Pruwhqvhq dqg Slvvdulghv/ 4<<<d/e,1 Khqfhiruwk wkh ghjuhh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj/ ghqrwhg e| %> lv wkh vkduh ri wkh h{shfwhg glv0 frxqwhg frvw ri dq xqhpsor|hg zrunhu1 Qdpho|/ jlyhq wkdw wkh h{lw udwh iurp xqhpsor|phqw lv p+,> wkh h{shfwhg glvfrxqwhg frvw ri dq xqhpsor|hg zrunhu lv e@ ^u . p+,` > dqg % lv ghqhg dv wkh vkduh ri wklv frvw sdlg e| dq hpsor|hu zkhq d zrunhu lv uhg1 Wkh ydoxh ri % dprxqwv wr D L|Ui |@| |iti |L igiU|t L*_ @*tL @hti ? @ 4L_i* | @}i M@h}@??} Lh | @}i TLt|?} 46 Sdudphwhuv } k u i| ir =6 =6:8 =3<7 =7 =3458 3 3 Hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv Xqhpso1 Udwh Xqhpso1 Vshoo ;=8( 3=;8 txduwhu Wdeoh 4= Sdudphwhuv ydoxh dqg ihdwxuhv ri wkh h{leoh oderu pdunhw 3=95 lq rxu ehqfkpdun fdoleudwlrq1 Wklv qxpehu fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh dyhudjh h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh X1V1 hfrqrp| ryhu wkh |hduv 4<;; 4<<: +XLSO/ 4<<<,1 Iljxuh 5 sorwv wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh ghjuhh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj % dsso|lqj wr doo mrev lq wkh h{leoh hfrqrp|/ iru wkh ehqfkpdun ydoxh ri wkh exgjhwS/ E @ 3=3651 Lw vkrxog eh qrwlfhg wkdw zhoiduh phuho| dprxqwv wr X . } @u> vlqfh doo zrunhuv jhw wkh vdph lqfrph lq wkh h{leoh oderu pdunhw1 Dffruglqjo|/ fkdqjhv lq zhoiduh fdq eh lpphgldwho| ghgxfhg iurp fkdqjhv lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh1 Iljxuh 5 vkrzv wkdw xqhpsor|phqw lv plqlpl}hg iru d ghjuhh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj juhdwhu wkdq rqh dqg odujhu wkdq wkh dfwxdo ghjuhh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh XV hfrqrp|1 Wklv uhvxow lv lq dffrugdqfh zlwk Ihogvwhlq +4<:9, zkr dujxh wkdw wkh rswlpdo h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqgh{ lv juhdwhu wkdq rqh1 Lw fdq dovr eh vhhq wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqgxfhv d uhodwlyho| vpdoo lpsdfw rq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh wkdw ghfuhdvhv iurp ;=8:(/ iru % @ 3> wr ;=7;(/ iru % @ 4=4= Wklv uhvxow lv lq olqh zlwk Dqghuvrq +4<<6, dqg Dqghuvrq dqg Ph|hu +5333, qglqjv/ dffruglqj wr zklfk h{shulhqfh udwlqj kdv d yhu| zhdn lpsdfw rq dyhudjh xqhpsor|phqw lq wkh X1V1 Pruhryhu/ Dqghuvrq dqg Ph|hu +5333/ s1 <<, hvwlpdwh wkdw _d pryh wr ixoo h{shulhqfh udwlqj zrxog orzhu wkh fodlp udwh e| 316403189 shufhqwdjh srlqwv%1 Lq rxu prgho/ wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh/ zklfk fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh fodlp udwh dv hyhu| uhg zrunhuv lv holjleoh wr wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv/ lv orzhuhg e| 317; shufhqwdjh srlqwv zkhq rqh pryhv iurp % @ 3 wr % @ 4> zklfk lv lq wkh udqjh surylghg e| Dqghuvrq dqg Ph|hu1 Lw lv riwhq dujxhg wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv wkh vdph wklqj dv ulqj frvwv1 Rxu iudphzrun/ doorzv xv wr vkrz wkdw wklv dvvhuwlrq lv idu iurp ehlqj uljkw1 Lq rxu iudphzrun/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj kdv d glhuhqw lpsdfw rq xqhpsor|phqw wkdq ulqj frvwv1 Lqghhg/ dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqgh{/ %> uhgxfhv/ iru d jlyhq exgjhw/ wkh sd|uroo wd{ +wkh vdph uhvxow zrxog dulvh iru d jlyhq uhsodfhphqw udwlr e,1 Wklv gurs lq wkh sd|uroo wd{ lqfuhdvhv surwv dqg lv wkhuhiruh olnho| wr irvwhu mre fuhdwlrq1 Wkh hhfw ri dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh ulqj frvwv lv olnho| wr eh glhuhqw1 Dv d pdwwhu ri idfw/ lq rxu iudphzrun/ dq lqfuhdvh lq ulqj frvwv udlvhv wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh/ ehfdxvh wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh vhsdudwlrq frvwv i| dqg ir lv qrw frpshqvdwhg e| d sd|uroo wd{ ghfuhdvh1 Wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri d ulqj wd{ klnh lq rxu ehqfkpdun fdoleudwlrq +% @ 3=95, lv looxvwudwhg e| Iljxuh 61 S ,^@*i?|*)c i UL*_ @i UL?t_ihi_ @ UL?t|@?| hiT*@Ui4i?| h@|L @?_ *LL! uLh |i _i}hii Lu i Tihi?Ui h@|?} |@| 4?43it |i M_}i| 47 0.086 0.0858 Unemployment 0.0856 0.0854 0.0852 0.085 0.0848 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Experience Rating Index 1 1.2 1.4 Iljxuh 5= H{shulhqfh udwlqj dqg xqhpsor|phqw lq wkh h{leoh hfrqrp|1 0.12 0.115 Unemployment 0.11 0.105 0.1 0.095 0.09 0.085 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Firing Costs 1 1.2 1.4 Iljxuh 6= Ilulqj frvwv dqg xqhpsor|phqw lq wkh h{leoh hfrqrp|1 48 e , Tihi?Ui h@|?} L? @ h}_ *@MLh 4@h!i| Zh duh jrlqj wr irfxv rq wzr dvshfwv ri oderu pdunhw uljlglw|= Mre surwhfwlrq dqg wkh plqlpxp zdjh/ zklfk sod| d yhu| lpsruwdqw uroh lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh1 Zh vwduw rxu dqdo|vlv e| vrph frpsxwdwlrqdo h{huflvhv phdqw wr xqghuolqh wkh surshuwlhv ri rxu prgho zkhq ulqj frvwv ru d plqlpxp zdjh duh lqwurgxfhg lq rxu ehqfkpdun hfrqrp|1 Wkhq/ zh hydoxdwh wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq d vshflf oderu pdunhw/ qdpho| wkh Iuhqfk oderu pdunhw/ zklfk kdv pdq| ihdwxuhv riwhq phw lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxurshdq hfrqrplhv1 e 6h?} ULt|t @?_ 4?44 @}i Mre surwhfwlrq lv olnho| wr frxqwhudfw wkh ehqhwv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Wkh srwhqwldo yluwxh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj ehlqj wr orzhu mre ghvwuxfwlrq/ lw lv grxewixo wkdw lw lv zruwkzkloh xvlqj h{shulhqfh udwlqj zkhq wkhuh duh kljk ulqj frvwv1 Wklv srlqw lv looxvwudwhg e| Iljxuh 7/ zklfk uhsuhvhqwv wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj./ zkhq ulqj frvwv wkdw dprxqw wr wkh ohyho phw rq wkh Iuhqfk oderu pdunhw +vhh ehorz, duh lqwurgxfhg lq wkh ehqfkpdun h{leoh hfrqrp|1 Qdpho|/ dw wklv vwdjh/ wkh h{lvwhqfh ri whpsrudu| mrev lv qhjohfwhg +s @ 3,> dqg lw lv dvvxphg wkdw doo mrev idfh ulqj frvwv wkdw zruwk 83( ri wkh dyhudjh |hduo| zdjh1 Rqh fdq vhh wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv qrw dq| pruh xvhixo wr ghfuhdvh xqhpsor|phqw +dq wkhuhiruh lpsuryh zhoiduh, zkhq wkhuh duh surwhfwlrq ohyhov vlplodu wr wkrvh phw lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh1 Pruh jhqhudoo|/ lw dsshduv wkdw wkh rswlpdo ghjuhh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj ghfuhdvhv zlwk wkh ohyho ri mre surwhfwlrq/ dqg fdq hyhq ehfrph qhjdwlyh/ zkhq mre surwhfwlrq lv eh|rqg d wkuhvkrog ydoxh1 Wkh lqxhqfh ri wkh plqlpxp zdjh rq wkh hflhqf| ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj fdq hdvlo| eh xq0 ghuvwrrg lq rxu vlpsoh iudphzrun1 Ohw xv dvvxph wkdw d plqlpxp zdjh lv lqwurgxfhg lq wkh h{leoh oderu pdunhw/ zlwkrxw dq| ulqj frvw1 Lw fdq eh xqghuvwrrg wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj fdq lpsuryh hflhqf| iru wzr uhdvrqv1 Iluvw/ wkh plqlpxp zdjh lqfuhdvhv wkh pdvv ri lqhflhqw mre ghvwuxfwlrqv/ zlwk srvlwlyh mre vxusoxv1 H{shulhqfh udwlqj lv d zd| wr frxqwhudfw wklv w|sh ri lqhflhqf|/ lqghshqghqwo| ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw ehqhw qdqflqj sureohp/ ehfdxvh/ lq wkh suhv0 hqfh ri d plqlpxp zdjh/ lw lv zruwk lqwurgxflqj ulqj frvwv wkdw duh uhglvwulexwhg wr hpsor|huv dv d vxevlg| orzhulqj oderu frvw1 Vhfrqg/ wkh vfdo h{whuqdolw| vwuhvvhg e| Ihogvwhlq +4<:9, vwloo h{lvwv zkhq wkhuh lv d plqlpxp zdjh/ vlqfh wkh oderu frvw dprxqwv wr z . lq wkh devhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj/ ehlqj wdnhq dv jlyhq e| hdfk hpsor|hu1 Lq rughu wr looxvwudwh wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh suhvhqfh ri d plqlpxp zdjh/ ohw xv lqwurgxfh d elqglqj plqlpxp zdjh lq wkh ehqfkpdun h{leoh hfrqrp|1 Dv vkrzq Ai @ih@}i i Tihi?Ui h@|?} ?_i ? |i Mi?U4@h! iUL?L4) t ti| |L ' fS2 At @*i t U@*U*@|i_ t?} NW _@|@ uLh |i N5 iUL?L4) uhL4 bHH |L bb. . 49 0.1205 0.12 Unemployment 0.1195 0.119 0.1185 0.118 0.1175 0.117 0.1165 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 Experience Rating Index 1 1.05 1.1 Iljxuh 7= H{shulhqfh udwlqj zlwk d h{leoh zdjh dqg vwulqjhqw mre surwhfwlrq1 0.0926 0.0924 Unemployment 0.0922 0.092 0.0918 0.0916 0.0914 0.0912 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 Experience Rating Index 1.2 1.3 1.4 Iljxuh 8= H{shulhqfh udwlqj lq wkh oderu pdunhw zlwk d plqlpxp zdjh dqg qr ulqj frvw1 4: e| Iljxuh 8/ dvvxplqj wkdw wkh plqlpxp zdjh hqwdlov dq xqhpsor|phqw udwh ri derxw <=58( iru wkh dyhudjh h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqgh{ +lqvwhdg ri dq dssur{lpdwhg ;=83( zkhq wkh zdjh lv h{leoh,/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj fdq jlyh ulvh wr d ghfuhdvh lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh1 Rqh fdq qrwh wkdw wkh ghfuhdvh lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh lv odujhu zkhq wkhuh lv d elqglqj plqlpxp zdjh1 Lqghhg/ d yduldwlrq lq wkh h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqgh{ lq wkh udqjh ^3=95> 4` lqgxfhv dq dssur{lpdwho| whq wlphv juhdwhu gurs lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh zkhq wkhuh lv d elqglqj plqlpxp zdjh1 Vlpxodwlrqv qrq uhsruwhg khuh vkrz wkdw wkh lpsdfw ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq xqhpsor|phqw lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh ohyho ri wkh plqlpxp zdjh1 e2 |)TU@* ,hLTi@? *@MLh 4@h!i| Qrz/ ohw xv wxuq wr wkh lvvxh ri wkh hflhqf| ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq d vshflf oderu pdunhw1 Qdpho|/ ohw xv frqvlghu wkh Iuhqfk fdvh/ zklfk lv lqvwuxfwlyh lqvridu dv pdq| ihdwxuhv ri wkh Iuhqfk oderu pdunhw duh dovr suhvhqw lq Hxurshdq oderu pdunhwv1 Dfwxdoo|/ mre surwhfwlrq dulvhv lq d yhu| vshflf irup lq vxfk pdunhwv/ ehfdxvh wkhuh duh erwk vwdeoh mrev/ wkdw ehqhw iurp dq lpsruwdqw mre surwhfwlrq/ dqg xqvwdeoh mrev/ zlwk d yhu| vkruw gxudwlrq vhh Jrx{ dqg Pdxulq +5333,/ Frkhq +4<<<,1 Wkh vsuhdg ri whpsrudu| mrev lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh/ gxulqj wkh hljkwlhv dqg wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh qlqhwlhv +RHFG/ 4<<<,/ lv d vwulnlqj ihdwxuh ri Hxurshdq oderu pdunhwv zlwk kljk ulqj frvwv1 Lq wklv frqwh{w/ vrph qhz txhvwlrqv dulvh= Zkdw lv wkh uhdo ghjuhh ri mre surwhfwlrq zkhq whpsrudu| dqg shupdqhqw mrev frh{lvwB Vkrxog erwk whpsrudu| dqg shupdqhqw mrev eh frqfhuqhg e| h{shulhqfh udwlqjB Rxu prgho doorzv xv wr dqvzhu/ wr d fhuwdlq h{whqw/ wr wkhvh txhvwlrqv1 Wkh irfxv lv rq wkh xqvnloohg zrunhuv zkr duh sdlg d plqlpxp zdjh1 Dffruglqjo|/ wkh plqlpxp zdjh kdv ehhq vhw wr jhw dq xqhpsor|phqw udwh ri 53( lq wkh devhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Wklv xqhpsor|phqw udwh iru xqvnloohg zrunhuv lv lq olqh zlwk uhfhqw jxuhv surylghg e| wkh Iuhqfk iruhfdvwlqj ghsduwphqw +Grlv|/ Gxfkahqh dqg Jldqhood +5335,,1 Dffruglqj wr wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh surylghg e| wkh Iuhqfk Plqlvwu| ri oderu +GDUHV/ 5334,/ xqvwdeoh mrev iru xqvnloohg zrunhuv duh dvvxphg wr eh ohvv wkdq rqh txduwhu orqj rq dyhudjh + @ 4=45, dqg hqwu| lqwr hpsor|phqw wkurxjk d whpsrudu| frqwudfw lv judqwhg wr :3( ri qhz klulqjv +s @ 3=:,1 Lw lv dvvxphg wkdw erwk whpsrudu| dqg qhz vwdeoh mrev vwduw dw wkh vdph surgxfwlylw| {f @ 3=:1 Dffruglqjo|/ wkh dyhudjh surgxfwlylw| rq mrev douhdg| klw e| d vkrfn lv zruwk 3=:81 Wkh dprxqw ri wkh ulqj frvwv vhw e| odz rq vxfk mrev lv prghvw1 Iroorzlqj Jrx{ dqg Pdxulq +5333,/ lw kdv ehhq dvvxphg wkdw ulqj frvwv rq whpsrudu| mrev dprxqw wr 8( ri wkh |hduo| zdjh1 Rq wkh frqwudu|/ mre surwhfwlrq lv pxfk pruh vwulqjhqw rq vwdeoh mrev zklfk idfh ulqj frvwv wkdw dprxqw wr 83( ri wkh |hduo| zdjh1 Uhpdlqlqj sdudphwhuv duh vhw vr dv wr uhsurgxfh wkh vkduh dqg ghvwuxfwlrq udwh iru erwk whpsrudu| dqg vwdeoh mrev 4; Sdudphwhuv } k u i| ir =5 4=45 3=45 =7 =3458 =5z 5z Hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv Xqhpso1 Udwh Xqhpso1 Vshoo 53( 4=;5 txduwhu Wdeoh 5= Sdudphwhuv ydoxh dqg ihdwxuhv ri wkh uljlg oderu pdunhw rq wkh Iuhqfk oderu pdunhwH1 Wdeoh 5 suhvhqwv wkh pdlq ihdwxuhv ri wkh oderu pdunhw wkdw dulvh zlwk wkh vhohfwhg sdudphwhuv ydoxh zkhq wkhuh lv qr h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 Wkh lpsdfw ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq xqhpsor|phqw dqg zhoiduh lv looxvwudwhg e| Iljxuh 91 Zh glvwlqjxlvk wzr fdvhv= Iluvw/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj pd| dsso| wr doo mrev/ vhfrqg/ wr vwdeoh mrev rqo|1 Pruhryhu/ zh orrn dw wkh frqvhtxhqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq xqhpsor|phqw/ rq wkh xwlolwduldq fulwhulrq zklfk fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh zhljkwhg vxp ri wkh zrunhuv* h{shfwhg xwlolwlhv wkdw duh ghqhg lq dsshqgl{ rq wkh zhoiduh ri wkh xqhpsor|hg zrunhuv dqg rq wkh zhoiduh ri wkh hpsor|hhv rq qhz mrev1 Joredoo|/ Iljxuh 9 vkrzv wkdw wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh uhdfkhv d plqlpxp/ dqg wkh glhuhqw phdvxuhv ri zhoiduh d pd{lpxp/ iru d srvlwlyh ydoxh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lq doo fdvhv1 Wkxv/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv zruwkzkloh= Lw ghfuhdvhv xqhpsor|phqw dqg lpsuryhv zhoiduh hyhq lq wkh fdvh zkhuh lw dovr dssolhv wr whpsrudu| mrev1 Hyhq li ulqj frvwv duh uhodwlyho| kljk lq Iudqfh/ wkh suhvhqfh ri whpsrudu| mrev dqg ri d plqlpxp zdjh pdnhv h{shulhqfh udwlqj ghvludeoh iru wkh orz vnloohg zrunhuv1 Lw lv dovr zruwk qrwlqj wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj kdv d pxfk vwurqjhu lpsdfw rq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh lq Iudqfh +d 417< shufhqwdjh srlqw gurs, wkdq lq wkh X1V1 +derxw d 314 shufhqwdjh srlqw gurs/ dv vkrzq lq Iljxuh 5,1 Wkh kljk ohyho ri wkh plqlpxp zdjh lq Iudqfh lv olnho| wr h{sodlq wklv uhvxow/ wkdw dsshduv wr eh yhu| urexvw lq rxu iudphzrun= Lw krogv lq d odujh udqjh ri sodxvleoh sdudphwhuv ydoxhv1 Rxu prgho dovr vkhgv oljkw rq wkh zd| h{shulhqfh udwlqj vkrxog eh dssolhg rq Hxurshdq oderu pdunhwv1 Jlyhq wkdw rqo| d orz vkduh ri qhz pdwfkhv duh wudqviruphg lqwr vwdeoh mrev/ rxu prgho vxjjhvwv wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj vkrxog qrw dsso| wr qhz mrev qdpho| {hg0whup mrev wkdw uhsuhvhqw :3( ri klulqjv lq Iudqfh1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq iru wklv uhvxow lv wkdw dsso|lqj h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq xqvwdeoh mrev vwurqjo| glvfrxudjhv mre fuhdwlrq1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ lqwurgxflqj h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq vwdeoh mrev rqo| lv d zd| wr ghod| wkh h{shfwhg vhsdudwlrq frvwv zkhq upv srvw ydfdqflhv/ zklfk olplwv wkh qhjdwlyh lpsdfw ri vhsdudwlrq frvwv rq mre fuhdwlrq1 Reylrxvo|/ lqwurgxflqj h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq vwdeoh mrev rqo| lqgxfhv dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh vkduh ri qhz mrev/ vlqfh wkh qhz mrev ghvwuxfwlrq udwh lv udlvhg dqg wkh vwdeoh mrev ghvwuxfwlrq udwh lv ghfuhdvhg e| h{shulhqfh udwlqj1 D sulrul/ wklv lv ghwulphqwdo wr zrunhuv zkr duh qrw hpsor|hg rq d vwdeoh mre1 Krzhyhu/ H Ai 4L_i* )i*_t hit*|t ? @UULh_@?Ui | i4ThU@* i_i?Ui uLh |i 6hi?U *@MLh 4@h!i| Ai t@hi Lu |i4TLh@h) LMt t *itt |@? H? DI @?_ |i _it|hU|L? h@|i U*Lti |L .2I 6?@**)c |i _it|hU|L? h@|i uLh t|@M*i LMt t @ML| S2DI 4< Unemployment Utilitarian Criterion 0.21 -218.5 -219 0.205 -219.5 0.2 -220 0.195 -220.5 -221 0.19 0.185 0 -221.5 0.5 1 1.5 -222 0 2 Welfare of the Unemployed Workers -219.5 -220 1 1.5 2 Welfare of the Employees on Unstable -219 -219.5 -220.5 -220 -221 -220.5 -221.5 -221 -222 -221.5 -222.5 -223 0 0.5 0.5 1 1.5 -222 0 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 Iljxuh 9= H{shulhqfh udwlqj/ xqhpsor|phqw/ dqg zhoiduh/ rq wkh Iuhqfk oderu pdunhw1 H{shul0 hqfh udwlqj dssolhv hlwkhu wr doo mrev +gdvkhg olqhv, ru wr vwdeoh mrev rqo| +frqwlqxrxv olqhv,1 lw dsshduv wkdw wklv skhqrphqrq lv qrw uhdoo| d sureohp khuh/ vlqfh erwk xqhpsor|hg zrunhuv dqg hpsor|hhv rq qhz mrev/ zkr duh wkrvh zkr vxhu iurp wkh vsuhdg ri mre lqvwdelolw|/ ehqhw iurp h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqwurgxfhg lq vxfk d zd|1 D L?U*tL? Lq wklv sdshu/ zh kdyh xwlol}hg d prgho ri d uljlg oderu pdunhw lqfoxglqj ulqj frvwv/ whpsrudu| mrev dqg d plqlpxp zdjh1 Wklv prgho ohdgv xv wr dujxh wkdw h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv olnho| wr uhgxfh xqhpsor|phqw dqg wr lpsuryh oderu pdunhw hflhqf| iru orz vnloohg zrunhuv lq Iudqfh/ dqg pruh jhqhudoo| iru orz vnloohg zrunhuv lq d w|slfdo uljlg Frqwlqhqwdo Hxurshdq oderu pdunhw1 Wkhvh uhvxowv vxjjhvw wkdw wkh frpelqdwlrq ri plqlpxp zdjh/ whpsrudu| mrev dqg ulqj frvw phw lq Frqwlqhqwdo Hxursh jlyhv ulvh wr d irup ri oderu pdunhw uhjxodwlrq zkhuh h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv zruwkzkloh1 Reylrxvo|/ rxu prgho kdv vrph olplwdwlrqv wkdw ixwxuh zrun vkrxog jr eh|rqg1 Iluvw/ zrunhuv khwhurjhqhlw| lv qrw wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw1 Dfwxdoo|/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj lv olnho| wr lqgxfh upv wr vxevwlwxwh zrunhuv zlwk vkruw h{shfwhg xqhpsor|phqw gxudwlrqv wr zrunhuv zlwk orqj h{shfwhg xqhpsor|phqw gxudwlrq/ ehfdxvh wkh frvw ri wkh iruphu lv orzhu lq fdvh ri vhsdudwlrq1 Iurp wklv srlqw ri ylhz/ h{shulhqfh udwlqj pd| eh ghwulphqwdo wr yhu| orz vnloohg zrunhuv/ zkrvh xqhpsor|phqw vshoo lv orqj1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr wdnh wklv ihdwxuh lqwr dffrxqw wr hydoxdwh wkh urexvwqhvv ri rxu uhvxowv1 Vhfrqg/ h{ dqwh upv khwhurjhqhlw| kdv ehhq qhjohfwhg1 Wkh lqwur0 53 gxfwlrq ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj lqgxfhv dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh wd{ exughq lq vhfwruv zlwk kljk oderu wxuq0ryhu dqg d ghfuhdvh lq wkh rwkhuv1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr hydoxdwh wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri vxfk uhglvwulexwlyh hhfwv rq wkh hpsor|phqw ohyho ri hdfk vhfwru wr rewdlq d frpsohwh slfwxuh ri wkh hhfw ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj +Ghhuh/ 4<<4,1 Wklug/ zh kdyh olplwhg wkh dqdo|vlv wr wkh vhjphqw ri wkh oderu pdunhw zlwk d elqglqj plqlpxp zdjh zkhq zh irfxvhg rq wkh Hxurshdq vlwxdwlrq1 Lw zrxog eh zruwk wdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw wkh lqwhudfwlrqv ehwzhhq wklv vhjphqw dqg wkh rwkhuv lq zklfk zdjhv duh edujdlqhg e| vrfldo sduwqhuv1 Irxuwk/ rxu prgho grhv qrw dffrxqw iru wkh pdfurhfrqrplf hqylurqphqw1 Dqdo|}lqj wkh lqflghqfh ri h{shulhqfh udwlqj rq zhoiduh dqg xq0 hpsor|phqw zkhq wkh hfrqrp| lv vxemhfw wr erwk lglrv|qfudwlf dqg pdfurhfrqrplf vkrfnv lv rq rxu uhvhdufk djhqgd1 54 +iuihi?Uit Dfhprjox/ G1 dqg Vklphu/ U1 +4<<<,/ _Hflhqw Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh%/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 43:/ ss1 ;<60<5;1 Doeuhfkw M1/ dqg Yurpdq V1/ +4<<<,/ _Xqhpsor|phqw Ilqdqfh dqg Hflhqf| Zdjhv%/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv/ 4:+4,/ ss1 474049:1 Dqghuvrq S1/ dqg Ph|hu E1/ +4<<6,/ _Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh lq wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv= Od|r Lqfhqwlyhv dqg Furvv Vxevlglhv%/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv/ 44+5,/ ss1 :30<81 Dqghuvrq S1/ dqg Ph|hu E1/ +4<<7,/ _Wkh Hhfwv ri Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh Wd{hv dqg Ehqhwv rq Od|rv Xvlqj Ilup dqg Lqglylgxdo Gdwd%/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu 7<931 Dqghuvrq S1/ dqg Ph|hu E1/ +5333,/ _Wkh Hhfwv ri wkh Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh Sd|uroo Wd{ rq Zdjhv/ Hpsor|phqw/ Fodlpv dqg Ghqldov%/ Mrxuqdo ri Sxeolf Hfrqrplfv/ :;/ ss1 ;404391 Eodqfkdug/ R1 dqg Odqglhu/ D1/ +5333,/ _Wkh Shuyhuvh Hhfw ri Sduwldo Oderu Pdunhw Uh0 irup1 Il{hg Gxudwlrq Frqwudfwv lq Iudqfh%/ Zrunlqj Sdshu/ PLW/ dydlodeoh dw= kwws=22hfrq0 zzz1plw1hgx2idfxow|2eodqfkdu2ohv2ohv2SduwldoUhirup1sgi Exuhdx ri Oderu Vwdwlvwlfv/ +5335,/ kwws=22zzz1eov1jry2qhzv1uhohdvh2hpsvlw1w361kwp1 Exughww N1/ dqg Zuljkw U1/ +4<;<,/ _Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh dqg Vkruw Wlph Frpshqvdwlrq= Wkh Hhfwv rq Od|rv/ Krxuv shu Zrunhu dqg Zdjhv1%/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ <:/ ss1 47:<047<91 Fdkxf S1/ dqg Srvwho0Ylqd|/ I1/ +5335,/ _Whpsrudu| Mrev/ Hpsor|phqw Surwhfwlrq/ dqg Oderu Pdunhw Shuirupdqfh%/ Oderxu Hfrqrplfv/ yro </ ss1 960<4 Fdkxf S1/ dqg ]|oehuehuj D1/ +4<<<,/ _Mre Surwhfwlrq/ Plqlpxp Zdjh dqg Xqhpsor|phqw%/ Fhsuhpds Zrunlqj Sdshu q<<471 Fdug1 G1/ dqg Ohylqh S1/ +4<<7,/ _Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh Wd{hv dqg wkh F|folfdo dqg Vhdvrqdo Surshuwlhv ri Xqhpsor|phqw%/ Mrxuqdo ri Sxeolf Hfrqrplfv/ 86/ ss1 405<1 Frkhq G1/ +4<<<,/ _Zhoiduh Glhuhqwldov Dfurvv Iuhqfk dqg XV Oderu Pdunhwv= d Jhqhudo Htxloleulxp Lqwhusuhwdwlrq%/ Fhsuhpds Zrunlqj Sdshu <<371 55 GDUHV +5334,/ _Ohv prxyhphqwv gh pdlq g*rhxyuh hq frqwudwv d gxuhh ghwhuplqhh hq 4<<<%/ Suhpl huhv V|qwk hvhv/ q 7416/ Plqlvw huh gh o*hpsorl hw gh od vrolgdulwh1 Ghhuh/ U1G1/ +4<<4,/ _Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh dqg Hpsor|phqw%/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv/ <+7,/ 63:0571 Grlv| V1/ Gxfkahqh V1/ dqg Jldqhood F1/ +5335,/ _Xq prghoh g*dssdulhphqw dyhf khwhurjhqhlwh gx idfwhxu wudydlo= xq qrxyho rxwlo g*hydoxdwlrq ghv srolwltxhv hfrqrpltxhv%/ Zrunlqj Sdshu/ Gluhfwlrq gh od suhylvlrq/ Plqlvwhuh gh o*Hfrqrplh hw ghv Ilqdqfhv1 Iduehu K1/ +4<<<,/ _Prelolw| dqg Vwdelolw|1 Wkh G|qdplfv ri Mre Fkdqjh lq Oderu Pdunhwv%/ Lq Kdqgerrn ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv/ yro 6E/ fkds 6:/ ss1 57<5057;6/ Hglwhg e| R1 Dvkhqihowhu dqg G1Fdug1 Hovhylhu Vflhqfh1 Ihogvwhlq P1/ +4<:9,/ _Whpsrudu| Od|rv lq wkh Wkhru| ri Xqhpsor|phqw%/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ ;7/ ss1 <6:0<8:1 Jrx{ G1/ dqg Pdxulq H1/ +5333,/ _Lqvwlwxwlrqv hw vwdelolwh ghv hpsorlv1 Xqh dqdo|vh gh od g|0 qdpltxh gh od ghpdqgh gh wudydlo vhorq o*dqflhqqhwh ghv vdodulhv%/ Grfxphqw gh wudydlo/ LQVHH1 Kropoxqg E1/ +4<<;,/ _Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh lq Wkhru| dqg Sudfwlfh%/ Vfdqglqdyldq Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ 433/ ss1 44604741 Krvlrv D1/ +4<<3,/ _Rq wkh Hflhqf| ri Pdwfklqj dqg Uhodwhg Prghov ri Vhdufk dqg Xqhp0 sor|phqw%/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 8:/ ss1 5:<05<;1 Pdufhdx Q1/ +4<<6,/ _Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh dqg Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh%/ Mrxuqdo ri Sxeolf Hfr0 qrplfv/ 85/ ss1 56:057<1 Pdujrolv G1/ dqg Irxjhuh G1/ +5333,/ _Prgxohu ohv frwlvdwlrqv hpsor|hxuv d o*dvvxudqfh fkarpdjh= ohv h{shulhqfhv gh erqxv0pdoxv dx{ Hwdwv0Xqlv%/ Uhyxh Iudqfdlvh g*Hfrqrplh/ 5/ ss1 560981 Ploodug V1/ dqg Pruwhqvhq G1/ +4<<:,/ _Wkh Xqhpsor|phqw dqg Zhoiduh Hhfwv ri Oderxu Pdunhw Srolf|= D frpsdudlvrq ri wkh X1V1 dqg X1N1%/ Lq Xqhpsor|phqw Srolf|= Jryhuqphqw Rswlrqv iru wkh Oderxu Pdunhw/ hglwhg e| Ghqqlv M1 Vqrzhu dqg Jxloohupr gh od Ghkhvd1 Qhz \run= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1 Prhqh/ H1 +4<<:,/ _Frpshwlwlyh Vhdufk Htxloleulxp%/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 438/ ss1 6;807441 56 Pruwhqvhq G1/ dqg Slvvdulghv F1/ +4<<7,/ _Mre Fuhdwlrq dqg Mre Ghvwuxfwlrq lq wkh Wkhru| ri Xqhpsor|phqw%/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 94/ ss1 6<:07481 Pruwhqvhq G1/ dqg Slvvdulghv F1/ +4<<<d,/ _Qhz Ghyhorsphqwv lq Prghov ri Vhdufk lq wkh Oderu Pdunhw%/ Lq Kdqgerrn ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv/ 6 / Hglwhg e| R1 Dvkhqihowhu dqg G1Fdug1 Hovhylhu Vflhqfh1 Pruwhqvhq G1/ dqg Slvvdulghv F1/ +4<<<e,/ _Mre Uhdoorfdwlrq/ Hpsor|phqw Ioxfwxdwlrqv dqg Xqhpsor|phqw%/ Lq Kdqgerrn ri Pdfurhfrqrplfv/ 4 / Hglwhg e| M1 Wd|oru dqg P1 Zrrgirug1 Hovhylhu Vflhqfh1 RHFG/ +4<<;,/ Hpsor|phqw Rxworrn1 RHFG/ +5334,/ Hpsor|phqw Rxworrn1 Slvvdulghv F1/ +5333,/ Htxloleulxp Xqhpsor|phqw Wkhru|/ 5qg hglwlrq/ PLW Suhvv1 Urfkhwhdx/ J1/ +4<<<,/ _Edodqfhg0Exgjhw Uxohv dqg Lqghwhuplqdf| ri wkh Htxloleulxp Xqhp0 sor|phqw Udwh%/ R{irug Hfrqrplf Sdshuv/ 84/ ss1 6<<073<1 Wrsho/ U1/ +4<;6,/ _Rq Od|rv dqg Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh%/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ :6/ ss1 87408<1 XLSO/ +4<<<,/ Xqhpsor|phqw Lqvxudqfh Surjudp Ohwwhu 380<< Dwwdfkphqw L/ Qdwlrqdo Dvvrfld0 wlrq ri Vwdwh ZrunIrufh Djhqflhv/ dydlodeoh dw= kwws=22zzz1lfhvd1ruj1 57 S TTi?_ G , TiU|i_ |*|it Doo zrunhuv ehqhw iurp d oxps vxp wudqvihu i 3> wkdw vwhpv iurp wkh ulqj frvwv sdlg e| upv1 Dq xqhpsor|hg zrunhu lv dvvxphg wr hqmr| wkh rz hduqlqjv } iurp ohlvxuh/ dqg wr jhw xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv/ ghqrwhg e| e= Klv udwh ri mre qglqj lv p +,1 Khqfh/ wkh ydoxh ri xqhpsor|phqw/ ghqrwhg e| Y> vroyhv= uY @ X +} . e . i , . p +,^sY| . +4 s,Y?r Y ` > +49, zkhuh Y?r dqg Y| ghqrwhv wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq ri dq hpsor|hh rq d qhz vwdeoh mre dqg rq d whpsrudu| mre uhvshfwlyho|1 Ghqrwlqj e| Yr wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq rq d vwdeoh mre douhdg| klw e| d vkrfn/ Y?r> Yr dqg Y| vroyh= uY?r @ X +z . i , . iI +{r ,Y . ^4 I +{r ,` Yr Y?r j > uY| @ X +z . i , . iI +{| ,Y . ^4 I +{| ,` Yr Y|j uYr @ X +z . i , . I +{r ,+Y Yr , = 58 +4:, +4;, +4<, IZA Discussion Papers No. Author(s) Title Area 566 R. Hujer M. Caliendo D. Radić Skill Biased Technological and Organizational Change: Estimating a Mixed Simultaneous Equation Model Using the IAB Establishment Panel 5 09/02 567 H. Lehmann K. Phillips J. Wadsworth The Incidence and Cost of Job Loss in a Transition Economy: Displaced Workers in Estonia, 1989-1999 4 09/02 568 H. O. Duleep D. J. Dowhan Revisiting the Family Investment Model with Longitudinal Data: The Earnings Growth of Immigrant and U.S.-Born Women 1 09/02 569 J. Haltiwanger M. Vodopivec Worker Flows, Job Flows and Firm Wage Policies: An Analysis of Slovenia 4 09/02 570 T. K. Bauer S. Bender Technological Change, Organizational Change, and Job Turnover 1 09/02 571 O. Ashenfelter M. Greenstone Using Mandated Speed Limits to Measure the Value of a Statistical Life 5 09/02 572 C. Y. Co I. N. Gang M.-S. Yun Self-Employment and Wage Earning: Hungary During Transition 4 09/02 573 R. T. Riphahn O. Serfling Item Non-Response on Income and Wealth Questions 6 09/02 574 R. Kuhn S. Stillman Understanding Interhousehold Transfers in a Transition Economy: Evidence from Russia 4 09/02 575 H. Antecol D. A. Cobb-Clark S. J. Trejo Human Capital and Earnings of Female Immigrants to Australia, Canada, and the United States 5 09/02 576 M. Fertig C. M. Schmidt H. Schneider Active Labor Market Policy in Germany – Is There a Successful Policy Strategy? 6 09/02 577 K. Ariga G. Brunello Are the More Educated Receiving More Training? Evidence from Thailand 2 09/02 578 I. N. Gang F. L. Rivera-Batiz M.-S. Yun Economic Strain, Ethnic Concentration and Attitudes Towards Foreigners in the European Union 1 09/02 579 I. N. Gang M.-S. Yun Decomposing Inequality Change in East Germany During Transition 4 09/02 580 I. N. Gang J. Landon-Lane M.-S. Yun Gender Differences in German Upward Income Mobility 1 09/02 581 P. Cahuc F. Malherbet Unemployment Compensation Finance and Labor Market Rigidity 5 09/02 An updated list of IZA Discussion Papers is available on the center‘s homepage www.iza.org. Date