Trends in Residential Housing 2020

Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 1
Trends in Residential Housing 2020
Prof. Dr. Volker Eichener
President, EBZ Business School
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A globalized perspective
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 2
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Germany and general trends
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USA

France

UK

China
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Japan
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Dubai
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Agenda
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 3
International Megatrends
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Demographic change: individualization, pluralization
in every country people are becoming more diverse
Globalization: economics, tourism, culture
global trends are spreading internationally – the differences between
countries diminish
In every single country, diversity of lifestyles increases, but you will find
the same subgroups all over the world.
The well-off older people in Germany, France and USA have more in
common than the well-off older people and the young urban
professional singles in each country.
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Cultural Globalization
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Globalization in housing: Which house stands in what
country?
Germany
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Russia
UK
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France
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What are the trends in residential housing?
Findings from a survey of 1.500 households in Germany
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Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 7
Pluralization of individual housing concepts
family-oriented
dynamic
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decent & modest
conventional
middle-class
demanding
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simple & functional
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Revival of the urban lifestyle
other
suburban
Im Grünen
27%
city center
sonstiges Innenstadt
2%
8%
inner city fringe
Innenstadtrand
22%
subcenter
quiet inner-city neighborhood
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ruhige
Stadtteillage
29%
Stadtteilzentrum
12%
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Urban life & urban infrastructure
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70% want the single detached home
other
multi-family house
sonstiges
5%
Mehrfamilienhaus
29%
Einfamilienhaus
52%
Reihenhaus
5%
Doppelhaus
9%
semi-detached house
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detached house
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terraced house
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A new trend: single homes for rent (mostly terraced)
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 12
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Urban homes for families: beating high land prices
Quelle: zeeb digel Architekten
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Features
0%
Abstellmögl. außerhalb der Wohnung
Balkon
(Dach-) Terrasse
Garten
Besondere Geräuschdämmung
Hauswirtschaftsraum
Grillplatz im Wohnumfeld
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20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
basement
attic
balcony
porch
garden
special noise insulation
second kitchen
BBQ
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Keller
10%
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Extra-large balconies increase quality
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Privacy must be kept
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Better bathrooms
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
Ich will nicht nur duschen, sondern mich auch
wohlfühlen
„I want to feel comfortable in my bathroom“
Die Wohnung
sollte&ein
1 full
1 Gäste-WC
half bathhaben
Die Waschmaschine sollte in einem Extra-Raum stehen
Das Badezimmer as
sollte
so groß
möglich sein
large
as wie
possible
Ich genieße häufiger ein ausgiebiges Bad
Ein Bad muss eine Fußbodenheizung haben
Ein Badezimmer mit Sauna würdesauna
mir gefallen
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Ein Haus sollte
2 zwei
full Bäder
bathshaben
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Such apartments are hard to let
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Even the modern bath is small
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Looks like a slaughterhouse
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Bathrooms become comfortable
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Bathroom trends
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 22
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Bathroom renovation in East Germany („Plattenbau“)
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 23
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Private wellness equipment
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Kitchen requirements
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Eine gute Küche darf schon
etwas kosten
„I am willing to pay handsomely for a good kitchen“
Eine Einbauküche sollte es
auf jeden Fall sein
Ich würde gern am Tresen
meines großen Wohn- und
Essbereichs sitzen
Ich finde eine Kochnische
v öllig ausreichend
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Die Küche ist für mich der
wichtigste Raum im Haus
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 25
Ecological standards
0%
Re genwassernutzungsanlage
20%
30%
60%
70%
80%
90%
utilization of rain water
renewable energy
Verwe ndung ökologischer
Baustoffe
ecological materials
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50%
low energy
Heizung mit erne uerbarer
Energie
Solarenergie für Warmwasser
40%
solar water heating
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Gebäude mit
Niedrigenergie standard
10%
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 26
Smart home technologies
0%
Technische
Energiesparlösungen
20%
30%
60%
70%
80%
90%
energy saving systems
study with web access
Techn. Lösungen für
Sicherheit im Wohnumfeld
outdoor security systems
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security systems
Arbeitszimmer mit
Möglichkeit zur Telearbeit
Komfortlösungen
40%
comfort appliances
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Accessibility
under 30:
80%
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Techn. Lösungen für
hausinterne Sicherheit
10%
Smart-Home-Technologien erreichen die Marktreife
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 27
intelligent heat control
with scenarios
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absence scenario
user interface
central controls
security system
motion detector controlled
night light
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fingerprint lock
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 28
Who wants senior-friendly housing?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
unter 30
30-44
ab 60
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45-59
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 29
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Degrees of barrier-free housing
4 XHOOH)HGGHUVHQ$UFKLWHNWHQ/LIWD%DXVWDWLN+äQLJ
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Housing projects for the elderly are mushrooming
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 31
Conclusion: Specialized products
Rental
homes.
Townhouses.
Penthouses.
Lofts.
Collective
housing
projects.
Ecological
Housing
housing.
for the
…
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elderly.
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Who wants an elevator? (survey of 1.500 households in Germany)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
unter 30
30-44
ab 60
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45-59
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 33
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Three-storey building with elevator!
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 34
The investment paradox: Why are so few elevators
installed in existing homes?
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Many homeowners need an elevator.
Many homeowners have money.
But they don‘t order the installation of an elevator.
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Same is true for
 bathroom renovation
 energy-saving heating systems and insulation
 home security
 ambient assisted living
 etc.
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 35
The reason: One's weaker self
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It can wait.
I don‘t know how to start doing it.
I don‘t know who can help me.
It will be too expensive.
At the end of the day, it will cost much more than originally planned.
It is technically impossible.
I don‘t know what‘s possible.
So much dirt, noise and hassle.
I don‘t have the time to see about it.
I am too old for it.
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Overcoming the investment paradox
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active promotion
fixed price
one-stop shopping
trustworthy partner / mediator
ready-for-use
hassle-free (incl. final cleaning)
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Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 37
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Flexible floorplans.
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Added value.
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Germany: General trends
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Shrinking population.
Increasing competition on housing markets – increasing vacancies.
Strong ageing – increasing demand for assisted living and other seniorfriendly housing models.
Diversification of housing demand – increasing number of younger
singles and empty nesters.
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USA: General trends
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Increasing population.
Modest ageing.
New forms of housing for the elderly – assisted living, continuing care
retirement communities etc.
Increasing number of younger childless households.
Revitalization of inner cities.
Still 70% of buildings are one- to two-storey structures, but a new trend
towards rental apartments in inner cities.
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The land of single detached houses and suburban sprawl
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The climax of suburbanism: gated communities
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New Urbanism: revival of historic and European
architecture
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Revival of city centers and urban living (example Denver)
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A new trend: townhomes, condos, apartment blocks
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Assisted living
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The other America
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UK: General trends
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Increasing population because of continuing immigration.
Strong ageing.
From „sheltered housing“ to „very sheltered housing“.
Very high percentage of owner-occupied housing.
Old housing stock – renovation.
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The epitome of British housing: terraced houses
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Detached houses: two storeys are common
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High-rise housing estates: subject to demolition
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UK: (Very) Sheltered Housing
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China: General trends
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Population may grow.
Urbanization continues, but at a slower pace.
Rapid Ageing, albeit starting from a low level.
The elderly live together with their children.
Demolition of old housing stock.
High-rise apartment blocks are mushrooming.
Niches for luxury homes emerge.
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China: Rapid demolition of traditional housing
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The future: high-rise apartment blocks
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Gentrification of the French Quarter, Shanghai
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China – How the population lives
2003
Typ of building
brick houses, six stories or under
high rise apartments
single story homes
luxury apartments
luxury villas
simple rural housing
commune style homes
other types of dwellings
%
47.5
28.4
7
3
0.6
6.3
3.3
3.9
* National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2003
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In 2003, almost the half of the population lived in brick houses (47.5%), around
28% lived in high rise apartments.
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 58
Japan: General trends
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Decreasing population.
Very strong ageing.
67% of new-built dwellings are senior-friendly.
In urbanized areas, cramped old housing stock.
In urbanized areas, construction of high-rise apartment blocks.
Increase of living space per unit.
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Housing in Japan: High-density, multi-storey, cramped
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Japan: Brand-new rental apartments (Tokyo)
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Dubai: city of superlatives
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 62
Typical for Dubai: Large-scale developments
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1979: World Trade Centre (the beginning, office tower)
Since 1990: Sheikh Zayed Road (linear urban sprawl, mixed)
Since 2001: Three Palm Islands (hotels & residential)
Since 2007: The World (hotels & residential)
2008: Downtown Dubai (Dubai mall, Burj Dubai etc.)
Since 2008: DubaiLand (recreational) with City of Arabia
?: Dubai Waterfront (new city for 1.5 million population)
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Dubai: single detached homes
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Dubai: townhouses
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High-rise: condos and rental apartments
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All in one picture: The Palm
Trends i n Residential Housing, 29 J an 2009 67
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pluralization of lifestyles – diversification of housing
urban living
increasing percentages of multi-storey housing and rental housing
increasing quality requirements
new features, new technical equipment
increasing senior-friendly, barrier-free housing
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chances for elevators
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The future of housing in a globalized world