Asset Management Equity Business Thematic

Asset Management Equity Business Thematic

July 2016
Asset Management Equity Business
Thematic Insights: Robotics, Security & Safety
Truck Platooning: A first real step in autonomous driving?
Dr. Patrick Kolb, Fund Manager, Credit Suisse
“However, when self-driving cars become safer than humandriven cars, the public may outlaw the latter. Hopefully not.”
Elon Musk, Chairman/CEO/Co-Founder of Tesla
Dear Reader,
In April 2016, six convoys of more than a dozen self-driving trucks drove across Europe to Rotterdam’s harbour.
The leading vehicle of each convoy dictates speed and direction, while the rest automatically steer, accelerate, and
brake in sync. Each truck is connected via Wi-Fi, GPS, sensors and cameras to ensure travelling behind one
another. “It was a little eerie to hand over part of my role as driver,” says Michael Kropp, a test driver for Daimler.
“But it was really comfortable, especially in heavy traffic or boring stretches of road.1”
Over the past one hundred years, innovation within the automotive sector has brought several major technological
advances, leading to safer, cleaner and more affordable vehicles for the society. As of today, we think this industry
appears to be on the cusp of a revolutionary change. We believe the long term consequences of truck platooning
are enormous and the effects go far beyond the traditional transportation sector. Self-driving vehicles have a great
potential to improve the lives of billions of people. Therefore, in our opinion automated driving and smart mobility
offer realistic chances to optimise the labour market, infrastructure, logistics as well as our society.
Source: Bloomberg (2016): Convoys of Automated Trucks Set to Point Way to Driverless Cars, April 22nd 2016, URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-22/convoys-of-automated-trucks-set-to-point-way-to-driverless-cars, 10.6.2016.
1
Page 1 of 5
July 2016
What is the EU truck platoon challenge?
During its Presidency of the European Union in 2016, the
Netherlands have initiated a European Truck Platooning
Challenge. Six truck producers, DAF Trucks, Daimler Trucks,
Iveco, MAN Truck & Bus, Scania and Volvo Group, have been
driving in columns (platooning) on public roads from several
European cities to Rotterdam2. Map 1 shows the routes of each
truck convoy. Scania left from Södertalje, south of Stockholm,
drove through Sweden, Denmark and Germany to Maasvlakte II in
the Port of Rotterdam. Volvo started from Gothenburg and drove
through the same countries as Scania. Daimler started from
Stuttgart and MAN from Munich (both in Southern Germany) while
IVECO departed from Brussels and DAF from their production
location in Westerlo, Belgium. Scania had the longest route in the
European Truck Platooning Challenge with over 2’000 kilometers
and had to cross four borders. On April 6th 2016 all trucks arrived
without accidents at the harbor of Rotterdam.
Map 1: European Truck Platooning - The
voyage to Rotterdam
Stockholm
Gothenburg
Rotterdam
What are the advantages?
Westerloo
The aim of this EU truck platoon challenge was to bring platooning
one step closer to implementation. Truck Platooning comprises a
Brussels
number of trucks equipped with state-of-the-art driving support
systems: one closely following the other. This forms a platoon with
Munich
the trucks driven by smart technology and mutually
Stuttgart
communicating. An analysis conducted by TechCrunch, an online
Source: Google Maps, EU Truck Platoon Challenge
publisher of technology industry news, highlights the following
advantages of autonomous trucks3:
•
Labor cost savings: Shipping a full truckload across the US from Los Angeles to New York costs around
USD 4’500, about USD 3’400 of which is labor.
•
Driverless trucks operate 24 hours a day. In contrast, human truck drivers are restricted in many areas from
driving more than 11 hours per day without taking an eight-hour break. Effectively, this technology would
double the output at 25% of the cost.
•
Optimization of speed and fuel efficiencies: The optimal cruising speed for fuel efficiency is about 45 miles
per hour (or ca. 72 km/h). Due to their close convoy formation, this means lower fuel consumption because
of reduced air resistance, and less CO2 emissions. Platooning can optimize the traffic flow by reducing
tailbacks, and the short distance between vehicles means less space taken up on the road, squeezing
vehicles on the road more closely for a better traffic flow4. While human drivers are paid by mile and
incentivized to drive faster, computerized trucks operating around the clock could maximize fuel efficiency.
When two or three trucks are linked together closely behind one another, they can provide efficiency gains
that humans simply can’t match. According to the Financial Times, logistic companies could save EUR 1.6
billion per annum in fuel costs just from platooning5.
•
Driverless trucks will save lives: Traffic accidents involving trucks kill more people in one year than all US
domestic airline crashes over the last 45 years. In 2015, 835 truck drivers were killed in the US on the job,
more than any other occupation in the United States.
Source: European Truck Platooning (2016): European Truck Platooning Challenge, URL:
https://www.eutruckplatooning.com/home/default.aspx, 10.6.2016.
3
Source: TechCrunch (2016): The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs, April 26th 2016, URL:
http://techcrunch.com/2016/04/25/the-driverless-truck-is-coming-and-its-going-to-automate-millions-of-jobs/, 10.6.2016.
4
Source: European Truck Platooning (2016): What is truck platooning?, URL: https://www.eutruckplatooning.com/About/default.aspx,
10.6.2016.
5
Source: Financial Times (2016): EU driverless truck project moves into fast lane after road trip, April 10th 2016, URL:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66eab950-fdb0-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d.html#axzz4BC9QoVmr, 10.6.2016.
2
Page 2 of 5
July 2016
Bottleneck is regulation
A big challenge to the adoption of driverless trucks is the current regulatory environment, including standardising
regulations across the European continent to enable self-driving convoys and designing systems enabling
communication between different trucks from different manufacturers. Just to illustrate, in Germany the minimum
legal distance between vehicles is 50 meters, but simply “a safe distance” in the Netherlands. Additionally,
standard rules about dissolving platoons at busy highway junctions are currently unsolved6. Finally, truck platooning
could have far reaching consequences for the use of the road networks as well as areas that handle large amounts
of freight, such as port terminals. Dedicated lanes might be required to avoid hazardous impact between slowermoving driverless trucks and human drivers using the same highway. Therefore, regulatory harmonisation is
needed if we want to have a widescale introduction of truck platooning in Europe. According to the Financial
Times, driverless trucks are expected to be allowed on European roads by the end of the decade7.
In April 2016, an informal summit was held in the Netherlands to discuss changes to regulations needed to make
self-driving transportation a reality. The European transportation ministers, the European Commission and industry
representatives agreed to work together on connected and automated driving, focusing on traffic rules8.
Conclusion
There is no doubt, challenges will come with novel technologies. Self-driving vehicles have a great potential to
improve the lives of billions of people. Reputational risks, customer resistance as well as rising risks of security and
privacy can negatively affect the growth trends. The truck platooning demonstration in Europe shows that driverless
trucking is not very far away. Currently, regulatory issues are the most important barriers, which, in our opinion, will
be resolved over time.
We also need to think about the adverse effects of this structural transformation. The displacement of jobs by
artificial intelligence and robots has often been discussed as something that we’ll have to eventually solve in the
distant future. But the recent successful demonstration of self-driving trucks shows that this development will have
far reaching consequences for our society. It is clear, the EU truck platooning challenge is a big project that can
only be done with the active support of various governments. However, regulators will understandably be reluctant
to allow such a disruptive technology in the near future, given the potential to eliminate so many jobs.
The transition to autonomous vehicles is underway. In our opinion, the next decade may see the most dramatic
revolution in the automobile industry since Henry Ford redefined its manufacturing, and electronics will surely play a
central role in that transformation.
As long-term oriented security & safety investors, investing in the thematic of self-driving vehicles is an attractive
secular growth area within the field of transportation safety. We strongly believe that this topic will not work without
adequate security features. Therefore, we are invested in leading security & safety companies in the field of driver
assistance technology such as collision avoidance systems, radar, LiDAR (Light detection and ranging), ADAS
(Advanced Driver Assistance Systems), among others.
WE WISH YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A NICE SUMMER HOLIDAY SEASON!
THE NEX T EDITION WILL BE PUBLISHED IN SEPTEMBER 2016.
For further information (such as current fund factsheet, performance or quarterly comments) please click here.
Source: Bloomberg (2016): Convoys of Automated Trucks Set to Point Way to Driverless Cars, April 22nd 2016, URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-22/convoys-of-automated-trucks-set-to-point-way-to-driverless-cars, 10.6.2016.
7
Source: Financial Times (2016): EU driverless truck project moves into fast lane after road trip, April 10th 2016, URL:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66eab950-fdb0-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d.html#axzz4BC9QoVmr, 10.6.2016.
8
The Netherlands EU Presidency (2016): Declaration of Amsterdam, April 14th 2016, URL:
https://english.eu2016.nl/documents/publications/2016/04/14/declaration-of-amsterdam, 10.6.2016.
6
Page 3 of 5
July 2016
CREDIT SUISSE AG
credit-suisse.com
DISCLAIMER
The information provided herein constitutes marketing material. It is not investment advice or otherwise based on a consideration of the personal circumstances of the addressee nor
is it the result of objective or independent research. The information provided herein is not legally binding and it does not constitute an offer or invitation to enter into any type of
financial transaction.
The information provided herein was produced by Credit Suisse AG and/or its affiliates (hereafter "CS") with the greatest of care and to the best of its knowledge and belief.
The information and views expressed herein are those of CS at the time of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. They are derived from sources believed to
be reliable.
CS provides no guarantee with regard to the content and completeness of the information and does not accept any liability for losses that might arise from making use of the
information. If nothing is indicated to the contrary, all figures are unaudited. The information provided herein is for the exclusive use of the recipient.
Equities are subject to market forces and hence fluctuations in value, which are not entirely predictable.
Neither this information nor any copy thereof may be sent, taken into or distributed in the United States or to any U. S. person (within the meaning of Regulation S under the US
Securities Act of 1933, as amended).
It may not be reproduced, neither in part nor in full, without the written permission of CS.
Luxembourg
This document is distributed by CREDIT SUISSE (LUXEMBOURG) S.A. (“CSLux”), which is authorized as a credit institution in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and under the
prudential supervision of the Luxembourg supervisory authority of the financial sector, the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF), 110, route d'Arlon, L-2991
and part of the Credit Suisse group. This document has been prepared by CS AG and not by CSLux.
CSLux was not involved in the production of this document. CSLux provides no guarantee with regard to its content and completeness and does not accept any liability for losses
which might arise from making use of this information.
This document constitutes marketing material. It does not constitute investment research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the
independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
This document is intended only to provide general and preliminary information and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision nor as an offer or a solicitation to
conclude a transaction in financial instruments or to subscribe to banking services. The liability of CSLux may not be engaged as regards any investment, divestment or retention
decision taken by an investor/recipient on the basis of this document. Each investor/recipient shall make his/her own appraisal of the tax, legal, accounting and other financial
merits and risks of his/her investment regardless of the opinion expressed in the document. An investor must particularly ensure the suitability of his/her investment as regards
his/her financial and fiscal situation, his knowledge and experience in financial instruments and his/her investment objectives. The investor bears all the risks of losses in connection
with his/her investment.
This document shall not be construed as a personal recommendation as regards the financial instruments/investment strategies mentioned in the material. This document does not
constitute an investment advice, it does not take into account the recipient’s economic situation, his/her current assets or liabilities, his/her knowledge and experience in financial
instruments and markets, his/her investment purposes, investment horizon, risk profile and preferences.
This document is addressed to the recipient on the basis of the recipient’s explicit request. This document is for the exclusive use of the recipient. Any use of this information by the
recipient is under the sole responsibility of the recipient. This document may not be reproduced or disseminated either in part or in full without the written permission of CSLux. This
document is not intended for persons who, due to their nationality or place of residence, are not permitted to receive such information under local law. Neither this document nor any
copy thereof may be sent, taken into or distributed in the United States or to any U. S. person (within the meaning of Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as
amended).
Copyright © 2016 CREDIT SUISSE (LUXEMBOURG) S.A., registered office: 5, rue Jean Monnet, L-2180 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, R.C.S. Luxembourg n° B
11756. All rights reserved.
Liechtenstein
The document may only be distributed by licensed entities.
The shares offered are exclusively offered to a limited group of investors. This document may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose, nor be furnished to any other person
other than those to whom copies have personally been sent. This material and the transactions described therein are not nor have been subject to the review and supervision of the
Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority.
Das Dokument darf nur von lizenzierten Rechtseinheiten verteilt werden. Es ist einer begrenzten Anlegergruppe vorbehalten. Es darf nicht zu anderen Zwecken verwendet oder
vervielfältigt werden und ist ausschliesslich für Personen bestimmt, denen das Dokument persönlich zugesendet wurde. Die vorliegenden Unterlagen und die darin beschriebenen
Transaktionen unterliegen nicht der Aufsicht und Überprüfung durch die Finanzmarktaufsicht Liechtenstein.
Italy
Performance indications do not consider commissions levied at subscription and/or redemption. Furthermore, no guarantee can be given that the performance of the benchmark will
be reached or outperformed.
Financial instruments mentioned in this document could be considered complex products and therefore may not be suitable for retail clients.
PERFORMANCE OBTAINED IN THE PAST DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY WARRANTY FOR FUTURE.
BEFORE THE SUBSCRIPTIONS READ THE PROSPECTUS.
CREDIT SUISSE (ITALY) S.P.A. - Via Santa Margherita, 3 - 20121 Milano – italy.csam@credit-suisse.com - www.credit-suisse.com/it
Spain
Page 4 of 5
July 2016
For institutional clients only
When distributed in Spain is is distributed by CREDIT SUISSE (ITALY) S.P.A. - Via Santa Margherita, 3 - 20121 Milano – italy.csam@credit-suisse.com - www.credit-suisse.com/it
UK
For Qualified Investors/Institutional Clients Only.
When distributed from the United Kingdom, this is distributed by Credit Suisse Asset Management Limited which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
France
This document can only be offered to professional clients and to eligible counterparties. This document is distributed by Credit Suisse (Luxembourg) S.A., Succursale en France
When distributed in France, this is distributed by Credit Suisse (Luxembourg) S.A., Succursale en France which is authorized and regulated by Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de
Résolution (ACPR) and l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF).
Dubai
This presentation can only be offered to Professional Clients. This material is personal to each offeree and may only be used by those persons to whom it has been handed out.
Sweden/Denmark/Norway/Netherlands
For Qualified Investors/Institutional Clients Only
Germany and Austria
Wichtige Hinweise
Dieses Dokument wurde von der Division Private Banking & Wealth Management von Credit Suisse («Credit Suisse») und nicht von der Research-Abteilung von Credit Suisse
erstellt. Es stellt keine Finanzanalyse dar und genügt deshalb nicht allen gesetzlichen Anforderungen zur Gewährleistung der Unvoreingenommenheit von Finanzanalysen und
unterliegt keinem Verbot des Handels vor der Veröffentlichung von Finanzanalysen.
Bei diesem Dokument handelt es sich um eine Werbemitteilung, die ausschließlich zu Werbezwecken verbreitet wird. Dieses Dokument dient ausschliesslich zur Information und
Veranschaulichung sowie zur Nutzung durch den Empfänger. Es stellt weder eine Aufforderung noch ein Angebot zur Zeichnung oder zum Erwerb der darin erwähnten Produkte und
Dienstleistungen dar. Bei den darin enthaltenen Informationen handelt es sich lediglich um allgemeine Marktkommentare und in keiner Weise um regulierte Finanzberatung bzw.
Rechts-, Steuer- oder andere regulierte Finanzdienstleistungen. Den finanziellen Zielen, Verhältnissen und Bedürfnissen einzelner Personen wird keine Rechnung getragen. Diese
müssen indes berücksichtigt werden, bevor eine Anlageentscheidung getroffen wird. Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen sind nicht ausreichend, um eine Anlageentscheidung zu
treffen, und stellen keine persönliche Empfehlung oder Anlageberatung dar. Sie bringen lediglich die Einschätzungen und Meinungen der betreffenden einzelnen Mitarbeiter von
Private Banking & Wealth Management zum Zeitpunkt der Erstellung des Dokuments zum Ausdruck und beziehen sich nicht auf das Datum, an dem der Leser die Informationen
erhält oder darauf zugreift.
Die Einschätzungen und Meinungen der Mitarbeiter von Private Banking & Wealth Management können von den Einschätzungen und Meinungen der Analysten von Credit Suisse
oder von anderen Mitarbeitern von Credit Suisse Private Banking & Wealth Management oder den Eigenpositionen von Credit Suisse abweichen oder können diesen widersprechen.
Sie können sich zudem jederzeit ohne Benachrichtigung ändern und es besteht keine Verpflichtung, die Angaben zu aktualisieren. Sofern dieses Dokument Aussagen über künftige
Wertentwicklungen enthält, sind diese Aussagen zukunftsgerichtet und bergen daher diverse Risiken und Ungewissheiten.
Die in diesem Dokument enthaltenen Informationen und Meinungen stammen aus oder basieren auf Quellen, die von Credit Suisse als zuverlässig erachtet werden; dennoch
garantiert Credit Suisse weder deren Richtigkeit noch deren Vollständigkeit. Credit Suisse lehnt jede Haftung für Verluste ab, die aufgrund der Verwendung dieses Dokuments
entstehen. Ist nichts anderes vermerkt, sind alle Zahlen ungeprüft. Sämtliche hierin erwähnten Bewertungen unterliegen den Bewertungsrichtlinien und -prozessen von Credit
Suisse. Zu beachten ist, dass historische Wertentwicklungen und Finanzmarktszenarien kein verlässlicher Indikator für laufende und zukünftige Ergebnisse sind.
Mit jeder Anlage sind Risiken verbunden und unter volatilen oder unsicheren Marktbedingungen können der Wert und die Rendite der Anlage stark fluktuieren. Bei Anlagen in
ausländischen Wertschriften oder Fremdwährungen besteht zusätzlich das Risiko, dass die ausländische Wertschrift oder die Fremdwährung gegenüber der Referenzwährung des
Anlegers an Wert verliert. Alternative Anlageprodukte und -strategien (wie Hedge Fonds und Private Equity) können komplex sein und höhere Risiken beinhalten. Diese Risiken
können sich aus dem ausgedehnten Einsatz von Leerverkäufen, Derivaten und Leverage ergeben. Zudem kann der Mindestanlagezeitraum für solche Anlagen länger sein als bei
traditionellen Anlageprodukten. Alternative Anlagestrategien (wie Hedge Fonds) sind nur für Anleger bestimmt, welche die mit diesen Anlagen verbundenen Risiken verstehen und
akzeptieren.
Dieses Dokument ist nicht für die Verbreitung an oder die Nutzung durch natürliche oder juristische Personen bestimmt, die Bürger eines Landes sind oder die in einem Land ihren
Wohnsitz bzw. ihren Gesellschaftssitz haben, in dem die Verbreitung, Veröffentlichung, Bereitstellung oder Nutzung geltende Gesetze oder Vorschriften verletzen würde oder in dem
Credit Suisse und/oder ihre Tochtergesellschaften oder verbundenen Unternehmen Registrierungs- oder Zulassungspflichten erfüllen müssten. Die Unterlagen wurden dem
Empfänger zur Verfügung gestellt und dürfen nicht ohne die ausdrückliche schriftliche Genehmigung von Credit Suisse weitergegeben werden.
In Deutschland wird das vorliegende Dokument von der Credit Suisse (Deutschland) AG verteilt bzw. bereitgestellt, die von der Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
(BaFin) zugelassen ist und von ihr beaufsichtigt wird.
Copyright © 2016. CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG und/oder verbundene Unternehmen. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
CREDIT SUISSE (DEUTSCHLAND) AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
Junghofstraße 16
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Copyright © 2016 Credit Suisse Group AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Page 5 of 5