Lesson - 1 Business Economics- Meaning, Nature, Scope and significance

Lesson - 1
Business Economics- Meaning, Nature, Scope and significance
Introduction and meaning :
(Author : Dr. M.S. Khanchi)
Business Economics, also called Managerial Economics, is the
application of economic theory and methodology to business. Business involves
decision-making. Decision making means the process of selecting one out of
two or more alternative courses of action. The question of choice arises because
the basic resources such as capital, land, labour and management are limited
and can be employed in alternative uses. The decision-making function thus
becomes one of making choice and taking decisions that will provide the most
efficient means of attaining a desired end, say, profit maximation.
Different aspects of business need attention of the chief executive. He
may be called upon to choose a single option among the many that may be
available to him. It would he in the interest of the business to reach an optimal
decision- the one that promotes the goal of the business firm. A scientific
formulation of the business problem and finding its optimals solution requires
that the business firm is he equipped with a rational methodology and
appropriate tools.
Business economic meets these needs of the business firm. This is
illustrated in the following presentation.
Economic
Theory and
Methodology
Decision
problems in
Business
Business Economic
Application of Economic
Theory and Methodology to
solving Business problems
Optimal Solution
to Business
Problems
it may be that business economics serves as a bridge between economic
theory and decision-making in the context of business.
According to Mc Nair and Meriam, “Business economic consists of the
use of economic modes of thought to analyse business situations.”
Siegel man has defined managerial economic (or business economic) as
“the integration of economic theory with business practice for the purpose of
facilitating decision-making and forward planning by management.”
We may, therefore, define business economic as that discipline which
deals with the application of economic theory to business management.
Business economic thus lies on the borderline between economic and business
management and serves as a bridge between the two disciplines.
Nature of Business Economics :
Traditional economic theory has developed along two lines; viz.,
normative and positive. Normative focuses on prescriptive statements, and help
establish rules aimed at attaining the specified goals of business. Positive, on
the other hand, focuses on description it aims at describing the manner in which
the economic system operates without staffing how they should operate.
The emphasis in business economics is on normative theory. Business
economic seeks to establish rules which help business firms attain their goals,
which indeed is also the essence of the word normative. However, if the firms
are to establish valid decision rules, they must thoroughly understand their
environment. This requires the study of positive or descriptive theory. Thus,
Business economics combines the essentials of the normative and positive
economic theory, the emphasis being more on the former than the latter.
Scope of Business Economics :
As regards the scope of business economics, no uniformity of views
exists among various authors. However, the following aspects are said to
generally fall under business economics.
1.
Demand Analysis and Forecasting
2.
Cost and production Analysis.
3.
Pricing Decisions, policies and practices.
4.
Profit Management.
5.
Capital Management.
These various aspects are also considered to be comprising the subject
matter of business economic.
1.
Demand Analysis and Forecasting :
A business firm is an economic organisation which transform productive
resources into goods to be sold in the market. A major part of business decision
making depends on accurate estimates of demand. A demand forecast can serve
as a guide to management for maintaining and strengthening market position
and enlarging profits. Demands analysis helps identify the various factors
influencing the product demand and thus provides guidelines for manipulating
demand.
Demand analysis and forecasting provided the essential basis for
business planning and occupies a strategic place in managerial economic. The
main topics covered are: Demand Determinants, Demand Distinctions and
Demand Forecastmg.
2.
Cost and Production Analysis :
A study of economic costs, combined with the data drawn from the
firm’s accounting records, can yield significant cost estimates which are useful
for management decisions. An element of cost uncertainty exists because all the
factors determining costs are not known and controllable. Discovering
economic costs and the ability to measure them are the necessary steps for more
effective profit planning, cost control and sound pricing practices.
Production analysis is narrower, in scope than cost analysis. Production
analysis frequently proceeds in physical terms while cost analysis proceeds in
monetary terms. The main topics covered under cost and production analysis
are: Cost concepts and classification, Cost-output Relationships, Economics and
Diseconomics of scale, Production function and Cost control.
3.
Pricing Decisions, Policies and Practices :
Pricing is an important area of business economic. In fact, price is the
genesis of a firms revenue and as such its success largely depends on how
correctly the pricing decisions are taken. The important aspects dealt with under
pricing include. Price Determination in Various Market Forms, Pricing Method,
Differential Pricing, Product-line Pricing and Price Forecasting.
4.
Profit Management :
Business firms are generally organised for purpose of making profits and
in the long run profits earned are taken as an important measure of the firms
success. If knowledge about the future were perfect, profit analysis would have
been a very easy task. However, in a world of uncertainty, expectations are not
always realised so that profit planning and measurement constitute a difficult
area of business economic. The important aspects covered under this area are :
Nature and Measurement of profit, Profit policies and Technique of Profit
Planning like Break-Even Analysis.
5.
Capital Management :
Among the various types business problems, the most complex and
troublesome for the business manager are those relating to a firm’s capital
investments. Relatively large sums are involved and the problems are so
complex that their solution requires considerable time and labour. Often the
decision involving capital management are taken by the top management.
Briefly Capital management implies planning and control of capital
expenditure. The main topics dealt with are: Cost of capital Rate of Return and
Selection of Projects.
Conclusion :
The various aspects outlined above represent major uncertainties which a
business firm has to reckon with viz., demand uncertainty, cost uncertainty,
price uncertainty, profit uncertainty and capital uncertainty. We can therefore,
conclude that the subject matter of business economic consists of applying
economic principles and concepts to dea1 with various uncertainties faced by a
business firm.
Significance of Business Economics :
The significance of business economics can be discussed as under :
1.
Business economic is concerned with those aspects of traditional
economics which are relevant for business decision making in real life.
These are adapted or modified with a view to enable the manager take
better decisions. Thus, business economic accomplishes the objective of
building a suitable tool kit from traditional economics.
2.
It also incorporates useful ideas from other disciplines such as
psychology, sociology, etc. If they are found relevant to decision
making. In fact, business economics takes the help of other disciplines
having a bearing on the business decisions in relation various explicit
and implicit constraints subject to which resource allocation is to be
optimized.
3.
Business economics helps in reaching a variety of business decisions in a
complicated environment. Certain examples are :
(i)
What products and services should be produced?
(ii)
What input and production technique should be used?
(iii)
How much output should be produced and at what prices it should
be sold?
4.
(iv)
What are the best sizes and locations of new plants?
(v)
When should equipment be replaced?
(vi)
How should the available capital be allocated?
Business economics makes a manager a more competent model builder.
It helps him appreciate the essential relationship Characterising a given
situation.
5.
At the level of the firm. Where its operations are conducted though
known focus functional areas, such as finance, marketing, personnel and
production, business economics serves as an integrating agent by
coordinating the activities in these different areas.
6.
Business economics takes cognizance of the interaction between the firm
and society, and accomplishes the key role of an agent in achieving the
its social and economic welfare goals. It has come to be realised that a
business, apart from its obligations to shareholders, has certain social
obligations. Business economics focuses attention on these social
obligations as constraints subject to which business decisions are taken.
It serves as an instrument in furthering the economic welfare of the
society through socially oriented business decisions.
Conclusion :
The usefulness of business economics lies in borrowing and adopting the
toolkit from economic theory, incorporating relevant ideas from other
disciplines to take better business decisions, serving as a catalytic agent in the
process of decision making by different functional departments at the firm’s
level, and finally accomplishing a social purpose by orienting business
decisions towards social obligations.
Lesson - 2
Theory of Consumer’s Behaviour : Utility Analysis
(Author: Dr. M.S. Khanchi)
The theory of consumer’s behaviour seeks to explain the determination
of consumer’s equilibrium. Consumer’s equilibrium refers to a situation when a
consumer gets maximum satisfaction out of his given resources. A consumer
spends his money income on different goods and services in such a manner as
to derive maximum satisfaction. Once a consumer attains equilibrium position,
he would not like to deviate from it. Economic theory has approached the
problem of determination of consumer’s equilibrium in two different ways: (1)
Cardinal Utility Analysis and (2) Ordinal Utility Analysis Accordingly, we
shall examine these two approaches to the study of consumer’s equilibrium in
greater defait.
Utility Analysis or Cardinal Approach :
The Cardinal Approach to the theory of consumer behaviour is based
upon the concept of utility. It assumes that utility is capable of measurement. It
can be added, subtracted, multiplied, and so on.
According to this approach, utility can be measured in cardinal numbers,
like 1,2,3,4 etc. Fisher has used the term ‘Util’ as a measure of utility. Thus in
terms of cardinal approach it can be said that one gets from a cup of tea 5 utils,
from a cup of coffee 10 utils, and from a rasgulla 15 utils worth of utility.
Meaning of Utility :
The term utility in Economics is used to denote that quality in a good or
service by virtue of which our wants are satisfied. In, other words utility is
defined as the want satisfying power of a commodity. According to, Mrs.
Robinson, “Utility is the quality in commodities that makes individuals want to
buy them.”
According to Hibdon, “Utility is the quality of a good to satisfy a want.”
Features :
Utility has the following main features :
(1)
Utility is Subjective : Utility is subjective because it deals with the
mental satisfaction of a man. A commodity may have different utility for
different persons. Cigarette has utility for a smoker but for a person who
does not smoke, cigarette has no utility. Utility, therefore, is subjective.
(2)
Utility is Relative : Utility of a good never remains the same. It varies
with time and place. Fan has utility in the summer but not during the
winter season.
(3)
Utility and usefulness : A commodity having utility need not be useful.
Cigarette and liquor are harmful to health, but if they satisfy the want of
an addict then they have utility for him.
(4)
Utility and Morality : Utility is independent of morality. Use of liquor or
opium may not be proper from the moral point of views. But as these
intoxicants satisfy wants of the drinkards and opiumeaters, they have
utility for them.
Concepts of Utility :
There are three concepts of utility :
(1)
Initial Utility : The utility derived from the first unit of a commodity is
called initial utility. Utility derived from the first piece of bread is called
initial utility. Thus, initial utility, is the utility obtained from the
consumption of the first unit of a commodity. It is always positive.
(2)
Total Utility : Total utility is the sum of utility derived from different
units of a commodity consumed by a household.
According to Leftwitch, “Total utility refers to the entire amount of
satisfaction obtained from consuming various quantities of a commodity.”
Supposing a consumer four units of apple. If the consumer gets 10 utils from
the consumption of first apple, 8 utils from second, 6 utils from third, and 4
utils from fourth apple, then the total utility will be 10+8+6+4 = 28
Accordingly, total utility can be calculated as :
TU = MU1 + MU2 + MU3 + _________________ + MUn
or
TU = EMU
Here TU = Total utility and MU1, MU2, MU3, + __________ MUn =
Marginal Utility derived from first, second, third __________ and nth
unit.
(3)
Marginal Utility : Marginal Utility is the utility derived from the
additional unit of a commodity consumed. The change that takes place in
the total utility by the consumption of an additional unit of a commodity
is called marginal utility.
According to Chapman, “Marginal utility is the addition made to total
utility by consuming one more unit of commodity. Supposing a consumer gets
10 utils from the consumption of one mango and 18 utils from two mangoes,
then. the marginal utility of second .mango will be 18-10=8 utils.
Marignal utility can be measured with the help of the following formula
MUnth = TUn – TUn-1
Here MUnth = Marginal utility of nth unit,
TUn = Total utility of ‘n’ units,
TUn-l = Total utility of n-i units,
Marginal utility can be (i) positive, (ii) zero, or (iii) negative.
(i)
Positive Marginal Utility : If by consuming additional units of a
commodity, total utility goes on increasing, marginal utility will be
positive.
(ii)
Zero Marginal Utility : If the consumption of an additional unit of a
commodity causes no change in total utility, marginal utility will be
zero.
(iii)
Negative Marginal Utility : If the consumption of an additional unit of a
commodity causes fall in total utility, the marginal utility will be
negative.
Relationship between total utility and Marginal Utility :
The relationship between total utility and marginal utility may be better
understood with the help of a utility schedule and a diagram as shown below :
Table No. I
No. of units
Consumed
Total
Utility
Marginal
Utility
0
0
-
1
10
10
2
18
18
3
24
6
4
26
2
5
26
0
6
24
-2
7
21
-3
The relationship between total utility and marginal utility can be
explained with the help of the above table and diagram based thereon.
1.
Total utility, initially, increases with the consumption of successive units
of a commodity. Ultimately, it begins to fall.
2.
Marginal Utility continuously diminishes.
3.
As long as marginal utility is more than zero or positive, total utility
increases, total utility is maximum when marginal utility is zero. It falls
when marginal utility is negative.
4.
When marginal utility is zero or total utility is maximum, a poin of
saturation is obtained.
Laws of Utility Analysis :
Utility analysis consists of two important laws
1.
1.
Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility.
2.
Law of Equi-Marginal Utility.
Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility :
Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility is an important law of utility
analysis. This law is related to the satisfaction of human wants. All of us
experience this law in our daily life. If you are set to buy, say, shirts at any
given time, then as the number of shirts with you goes on increasing, the
marginal utility from each successive shirt will go on decreasing. It is the reality
of a man’s life which is referred to in economics as law of Diminishing
Marginal Utility. This law is also known as Gossen’s First Law.
According to Chapman, “The more we have of a thing, the less we want
additional increments of it or the more we want not to have additional
increments of it.”
According to Marshall, “The additional benefit which a person derives
from a given stock of a thing diminishes with every increase in the stock that he
already has.”
According to Samuelson, “As the amount consumed of a good increases,
the marginal utility of the goods tends to decrease.”
In short, the law of Diminishing Marginal Utility states that, other things
being equal, when we go on consuming additional units of a commodity, the
marginal utility from each successive unit of that commodity goes on
diminishing.
Assumptions :
Every law in subject to clause “other things being equal” This refers to
the assumption on which a law is based. It applies in this case as well. Main
assumptions of this law are as follows:
1.
Utility can be measured in cardinal number system such as 1,2,3
_______ etc.
2.
There is no change in income of the consumer.
3.
Marginal utility of money remains constant.
4.
Suitable quantity of the commodity is consumed.
5.
There is continuous consumption of the commodity.
6.
Marginal Utility of every commodity is independent.
7.
Every unit of the commodity being used is of same quality and size.
8.
There is no change in the tastes, character, fashion, and habits of the
consumer.
9.
There is no change in the price of the commodity and its substitutes.
Explanation of the Law :
The Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility can be explained with the help
of Table and Figure.
Table No.2
No. of Breads
Marginal Utility
1
8
2
6
3
4
4
2
5
0point of Satiety
6
-2
It is clear from the above Table that when the consumer consumes first
unit of bread, he get marginal utility equal to 8. Marginal utility from the
consumption of second, third and fourth bread is 6, 4 and 2 respectively. He
gets zero marginal utility from the consumption of fifth bread. This is known as
point of satiety for the consumer. After that he gets negative utility i.e. -2 from
the consumption of sixth unit of bread. Thus, the table shows that as the
consumer goes on consuming more and more units of bread, marginal utility
goes on diminishing.
Pricing Decision :
A retailor’s price policy is a crucial positioning factor and must be
decided in relation to its target market, its product and service assortments and
its competition. This involved the decisions regarding the price lilies to be
earned and overall markdown or sale policies:
Promotion Decision :
Retailers use the promotional tools - advertising, personal selling, sales
promotion and public relations to reach. Customers Personal selling requires
careful training of sales people in how to greet customers, meet their needs and
handle their complaints.
THE FUTURE OF RETAILING :
Present scenario of retailing is that retailer’s margins are very low. They
are able to survive on low margins due to remarkable capacity for thrift. In
many traditional shops the family provides much of the labour. He performs
several functions distribution, finance and risk taking. When there is keen
competition, retailers tend to undercut each other. They compensate themselves
by taking higher margins on other products, or by increasing the turnover.
WHOLESALING :
Wholesaling is the sale, and all activities directly related to the sale, of
goods and services, to business and other organizations for (1) resale (2) use in
producing other goods and services or (3) operating an organization.
Wholesalers buy mostly from producers and sell mostly to retailers,
industrial consumers and other wholesalers.
NATURE AND IMPORTANCE OF WHOLESALING :
Here we will focus on firms engaged primarily in wholesaling. Retailers
may also be occasionally be involved in wholesale transaction.
Manufacturers small or big cannot establish their own direct link with
retailers or customers. It is not cost effective to them. At the other end of the
distribution channel, most retailers and final users buy in small quantities and
have only a limited knowledge of the market and source of supply. Thus there
is gap, a wholesaling middleman can fill this gap by providing services of value
to manufacturers and or to the retailers. Wholesaling brings to the total
distribution system the economies of skill, scale and transactions.
Wholesaling skills are efficiently concentrated in a relatively few hands.
This saves the duplication of effort that would occur if many producers had to
perform wholesaling function themselves.
Economics of Scale are there because of the specialization of who
leasing function that might otherwise require several small departments run by
producing firms. Wholesalers typical can perform wholesaling functions more
efficiently than most manufacturers can.
FUNCTION OF WHOLESALERS :
Wholesalers perform number of functions. They facilitate the task of
producer and retailer by performing one or more of the following channel
functions :
Selling and promoting :
Wholesalers’ sales force help manufacturers reach many small customers
at low cost. The wholesalers have more contacts and are often more
trusted by the buyer than the distant manufacturer.
Buying and assorting :
Wholesalers can select items and build assortments needed by their
customers, thereby saving the consumers much work.
Warehousing :
Wholesalers hold inventories, thereby reducing the inventory costs and
risks of suppliers and customers.
Transportation :
wholesalers can provide quicker delivery to buyers because they are
closer than the producers.
Financing :
Wholesalers finance their customers by giving credit and they finance
their suppliers by ordering early and paying bills in time.
Risk bearing :
Wholesalers absorb risk of the manufacturers by taking title and bearing
the cost of theft damage, spoilage and obsolescence. Market information:
Wholesalers give information to suppliers and customers about competitors new product and price developments.
Management services and advice :
Wholesalers often help retailers train their sale clerks, improve store
layouts and displays and setup accounting and inventory control systems.
TYPES OF WHOLESALERS :
Wholesalers can be broadly divided into three broad categories Merchant
wholesaler, Agent wholesaling middleman and Manufacturers’ Sales facility.
Fig.9 - Types of wholesaling institutions :
Wholesaling Middleman
Merchant
Wholesa1ing
including
Agent
Wholesalers
middleman, including
Manufacturers Sales
facilities including
Full Service
Manufacturers agents
Branches
Truck Jobber
Brokers
Offices
Drop Shippers
Merchant Wholesalers :
A merchant wholesaler is independently owned business that takes title
to the merchandise it handles. Merchant wholesalers include Full service, Truck
jobbers, Drop Shippers.
Full service wholesalers :
Full service wholesalers provide a full set of services, such as carrying
stock, using a sales force, offering credit, making deliveries and providing
management assistance. They are either wholesale merchants or industrial
distributors. Wholesale merchants sell mostly to retailers and provide a full
range of services. Industrial distributors are merchant wholesalers that sell to
producers rather than to retailers.
Truck Jobbers :
They perform a selling and delivery function. They carry a limited line
of goods (such as milk, bread or snack food) that they sell for cash as they make
their rounds of supermarkets, small groceries, hospitals etc.
Drop Shippers :
They operate in bulk industries such as coal and heavy equipment. They
do not carry inventory or handle the product. Once an order is received, they
find a producer who ships the goods directly to the customer.
Agent wholesaling middleman :
It is an independent firm that engaged primarily in wholesaling by
actively negotiating the sale or purchase of products or behalf of other firms but
that does not take little to the products being distributed.
Manufacturers Agents :
Agents represent buyers a seller on a more permanent basis.
Manufacturers’ agents represent two or more manufacturers of related lilies.
They have a formal agreement with each manufacturer covering prices,
territories, order handling procedures, delivery and warranties and commission
rates. They know each manufacturer’s product line and use their wide contact to
sell the products.
Brokers :
A broker brings buyer and sellers together and assists in negotiations.
The parties hiring them pay brokerage. They do not carry inventory, get
involved in financing or assume risk. Examples are: Food brokers, real estate
brokers, insurance brokers and security brokers.
Table No. 3
Rupees
M.U. of Apples
M.U. of Bananas
1
10
8
2
8
6
3
6
4
4
4
2
5
2
1
It is clear from the Table that if the consumer, spends Rs.3 on apples and
Rs.2 on bananas, the marginal utility lie gets from the last rupee on both
becomes equal i.e. 6. In this way he gets maximum satisfaction. The total utility
from both the commodities will be 10+8+6+8+6 = 38, which is maximum. In
case the consumer spends his income in any other manner, he will act lesser
total utility.
In this diagram units of money are shown on ox-axics and marginal
utility on oy-axics. It indicates that if the income of the consumer is Rs. 5.00, he
will spend Rs. 3.00 on apples and Rs. 2.00 on bananas, because third rupee
spent on apples and second rupee spent on banana yield him equal marginal
utility i.e. 8 utils. By distributing his income on apples and bananas in this
manner, the consumer gets total utility of 38 utils. It will be the maximum total
utility derived by the consumer out of his expenditure of Rs. 5.00. So by
spending his income in this manner the consumer will get maximum
satisfaction.
If the, consumer spends his income on apples and bananas in any other
manner, his total utility will be less than the maximum as shown in diagram.
It is evident from the above figure that by spending one rupee less on
apples the loss will be equal to ABCD and by spending one rupee more on
bananas the gain win be equal to EFGH. It is clear that (ABCD) < (EFGH),
hence loss is more than gain.
Importance of the Law :
The importance of the law of equi-marginal utility can be explained as follows:
1.
Consumption : If a consumer spends his income, as suggested by this
law, on different commodities in such a way that the last unit of money
spent on them yields him equal marginal utility, he will be getting
maximum satisfaction out of his income.
2.
Production : Every producer aims at earnings maximum profit. To
achieve this objective he must utilize different factors of production in
such a way that the marginal productivity of each factor is equal.
3.
Exchange : Acting upon the law of equi-marginal utility, every person
will go on substituting goods giving more utility for the ones giving less
utility, till the marginal utility of all becomes equal. Exchange will stop
at that point.
4.
Distribution : It refers to the distribution of national income among the
factors of production, i.e. land, labour, capital, etc. Distribution is done
in such a way that in the long-run every factor gets its share out of
national income according to its marginal productivity.
5.
Public Finance : At the time of levying taxes, finance minister takes the
help of this law. He levies taxes in such a manner that the marginal
sacrifice of each tax-payer is equal. Then only it will have the lest
burden on all tax-payers. To achieve this objective, a finance minister
may substitute one tax for the other.
Criticism of the Law :
This law has been subjected to the following criticism.
1.
Cardinal measurement of utility is not possible : Measurement of
utility is not possible. How can a consumer say that he would get 10 utils
of utility from first apple and 8 utils, of utility from the second. Unless
marginal utility is estimated, application of the law will remain dubious.
2.
Consumers are not fully rational : The assumption that consumers are
fully rational is not correct. Some consumers are idle by nature, and so to
satisfy their habits and customs, they sometimes buy goods yielding less
utility. Consequently, they do not get maximum satisfaction.
3.
Shortage of Goods : If goods giving more utility are not available in the
market, the consumer will have to consume goods yielding less utility.
4.
Ignorance of the consumer : Consumer is ignorant about many things
concerning consumption. Many a times, he is ignorant about the right
price of the goods. He is ignorant about the less expensive substitutes
that may be way available in the market. He is also ignorant about the
different uses of goods. On account of this ignorance, the consumer fails
to spend his income in a manner that may yield him maximum
satisfaction.
5.
Influence of Fashion, Customs and Habits : Actual expenditure of
every consumer is influenced by fashion, customs, and habits. Under
their influence, many a times the consumer buys more of such goods
which give less utility.
Consequently, he buys less of those goods which give more utility.
Hence he fails to spend his income according to this law.
6.
Constant Income and Price : An important assumption of the law is
that the income of the consumer and the price of the goods should
remain constant. Income of the consumer is limited, as such he cannot
increase his satisfaction beyond a particular limit. Likewise, prices being
constant, he will get only as much of satisfaction as the amount of goods
that he can buy with limited income. He cannot extend his satisfaction
beyond this limit.
7.
Change in the Marginal Utility of Money : The assumption that
marginal utility of money remains constant is also unrealistic. In actual
life, marginal utility of money may increase or decrease. Due to increase
in the marginal utility of money, a consumer will have to rearrange his
expenditure on different goods.
8.
Complementary Goods : The law does not apply to complementary
goods. It is so because complementary goods are used in a fixed
proportion. By using less of one commodity, use of the other cannot be
increased.
Lesson : 3
Indifference Curve Approach
(Author: Dr. M.S. Khanchi)
Indifference Curve approach was first propouned by British economist
Edgeworth in 1881 in his book “Mathematical Physics.” The concept was
further developed in 1906 by Italian economist Pareto, in 1913 by British
economist W .E. Johnson, and in 1915 by Russina economist Stutsky. The
credit of rendering this analysis as an important tool of theory of Demand goes
to Hicks and Allen. In 1934, they presented it in a scientific form in their article
titled “A Reconsideration of the Theory of Value.” It was discussed in detail by
Hicks in his book, “Value and Capital”.
An indifference curve is a geometrical presentation of a consumer is
scale of preferences. It represents all those combinations of two goods which
will provide equal satisfaction to a consumer. A consumer is indifferent towards
the different combinations located on such a curve. Since each combination
located on such a curve. Since each combination yields the same level of
satisfaction, the total satisfaction derived from any of these combinations
remains constant.
An indifference curve is a locus of all such points which shows different
combinations of two commodities which yield equal satisfaction to the
consumer. Since the combination represented by each point on the indifference
curve yields equal satisfaction, a consumer becomes indifferent about their
choice. In other words, he gives equal importance to all the combinations on a
given indifference curve.
According to ferguson, “An indifference curve is a combination of
goods, each of which yield the same level of total utility to which the consumer
is indifferent.”
According to leftwitch, “A single indifference curve shows the different
combinations of X and y that yield equal satisfaction to the consumer.”
Indifference Schedule :
An indifference schedule refers to a schedule that indicates different
combinations of two commodities which yield equal satisfaction. A consumer,
therefore, gives equal importance to each of the combinations:
Supposing a consumer two goods, namely apples and oranges. The
following indifference schedule indicates different combinations of apples and
oranges that yield him equal satisfaction.
Table No. 1 Indifference Schedule
Combination of
Apple
Oranges
A
1
0
B
2
7
C
3
5
D
4
4
Apples and Oranges
The above schedule shows that the consumer get equal satisfaction from
all the four combinations, namely A, B, C and D of apples and oranges. In
combination A the consumer has I apple + 10 oranges, in combination B he has
2 apples +7 oranges, in combination C he has 3 apples +5 oranges, and in
Combination D he has 4 apples + 4 oranges. In order to have one more apple
the consumer sacrifice, some of the oranges in such a way that there is no
change in the level of his satisfaction out of, each combination.
Indifference Curve :
Indifference curve is a diagrammatic representation of indifference
schedule. The indifference curve shown in figure 1 is based on Table No.1
In this diagram, quantity of apples is shown on ox-axis and that of
oranges on oy-axis. IC is an indifference curve. Different points A,B,C, and D
on it indicate those combinations of apples and oranges which yield equal
satisfaction to the consumer.
Law of Diminishing Marginal Rate of Substitution :
The concept of indifference curve analysis is based on law of
diminishing marginal rate of substitution. The law was discussed by Lei-iier,
Hicks and Allen. To understand the law, it is essential to know marginal rate of
substitution.
The study of indifference curve shows that when a consumer gets one
more unit of X-commodity his satisfaction increases. If the consumer wants that
his level of satisfaction may remain the same, that is, if he wants to remain on
the same indifference curve, he will have to give up some units of ycommodity. In other words, in exchange for the satisfaction obtained from the
additional unit of apple, he will have to give up that many units of changes
whose satisfaction is equal to the additional satisfaction obtained from an
additional apple.
Utility gained of apples = Utility lost of oranges.
According to Prof. Bilas, “The marginal rate of substitution of X for Y
(MRSxy) is 4 @ defined as the amount of y which the consumer is just willing
to give up to get one more unit of x and maintain the same level of
satisfaction.”
Explanation of the law of Diminishine Marginal Rate of Substitution :
According to this law, as a consumer gets more and more units of X, he
will be wining to-give up less and less units of Y. In other words, the marginal
rate of substitution of x for y will go on diminishing while the level of
satisfaction of the consumer remains the same.
The law can be explained with the help of Table No.2 and Figure 2
below :
Table No. 2
Marginal Rate of Substitution
Combination
Apples (x)
Oranges (y)
MRSxy
A
1
10
-
B
2
7
3:1
C
3
5
2:1
D
4
4
1:1
Table No.2 indicates that the consumer will give up 3 oranges for getting
the second apple, 2 oranges for getting the third apple and 3 orange for getting
the fourth apple. In other words, marginal rate of substitution of apples for
oranges goes on diminishing.
It is clear the diagram that when consumer moves from point A to point
B, he give up 3 oranges to obtain one additional apple. In this situation,
consumer’s marginal rate of substitution of apple for orange is 3: 1. When he
moves from B to C, he gives up only 2 oranges to get one additional apple. The
marginal rate of substitution of apple for orange now diminishes to 2 : 1. It is
evident from this example that as the consumer increases the consumption of
apples, for getting every additional unit of apple he gives up less and It less
units of oranges, that is, 3: 1, 2: 1, 1: I respectively. It is called diminishing
marginal rate of substitution and the law relating it is called law of diminishing
marginal rate of substitution.
Assumptions :
Indifference curve approach has the following main assumptions:
1.
Rational Consumer : It is assumed that the consumer will behave
rationally. It means the consumer would like to get maximum
satisfaction out of his total income.
2.
Diminishing Marginal rate of Substitution : It means as the stock of a
commodity increases with the consumer, he substitutes it for the other
commodity at a diminishing rate.
3.
Ordinal Utility : A consumer can determine his preferences on the basis
of satisfaction derived from different goods or their combinations. Utility
can be expressed in terms of ordinal numbers, i.e., first, second etc.
4.
Independent Scale of Preference : It means if the income of the
consumer changes or prices of goods fall or rise in the market, these
changes will have no effect on the scale of preference of the consumer. It
is further assumed that scale of preference of a consumer is not
influenced by the scale of preference of another consumer.
5.
Non-Satiety : A consumer does not possess any good in more than the
required quantity. He does not reach the level of satiety. Consumer
prefers more quantity of a good to less quantity.
6.
Consistency in Selection : There is a consistency in consumer’s
behaviour. It means that if at any given time a consumer prefers A
combination of goods to B combination, then at another time he will not
prefer B combination to A combination.
A>B = B|>A
It means if A is greater than (>) B, B cannot be greater than (>) A.
7.
Transitivity : It means if a consumer prefers A combination to B
combination, and B Combination to C Combination, he will definitely
prefer A combination to C combination. Likewise; if a consumer is
indifferent towards A and B and he is also indifferent towards Band C,
then he will also he indifferent towards A and C.
Properties of Indifference Curves :
1.
Indifference curve slopes downward from left to right, or an indifference
curve has a negative slope: the downward slope of an indifference curve
indicates that a consumer will have to curtail the consumption of one
commodity if he wants to consume large quantity of another commodity to
maintain the same level of satisfaction. If an indifference curve does not slope
downwards it can either be a vertical line or horizontal line or an upward
sloping curve. Consider the following shapes of an indifference curve.
In the diagram quantity of apples is shown on ox-axis and quantity of
oranges of oy-axis. Let us suppose, indifference curve is a vertical line MB.
Combination A on this curve represents more units of oranges with the same
units of apples as compared with combination C. Consequently, A combination
yields more satisfaction than C combination. So an indifference curve cannot be
vertical or parallel to oy-axis.
If indifference curve is a horizontal line then H combination, will yield
more satisfaction than C combination, because in H combination there are more
units of apples than in C combination Consequently, an indifference curve
cannot be a horizontal line or parallel to ox-axis.
If indifference curve is upward sloping like IJ, the consumer will get
more satisfaction from combination A than B and C. Consequently, an
indifference curve cannot be upward sloping.
If indifference curve is downward sloping, the consumer will get equal
Satisfaction from A as well as B combinations, because in case of combination
A if quantity of oranges is more than in combination B, then the quantity of
apples is less than in combination B. Consequently, the slope of indifference
curve will be downward sloping.
2.
Indifference curve is convex to the point of origin: An indifference curve
will ordinarily he convex to the point of origin. This property is based on the
law of diminishing marginal rate of substitution.
If an indifference is not convex to the point of origin 0, it can either be a
straight line or concave. But it can be proved with the help of diagram that on
the basis of the assumption of the law of diminishing marginal rate of
substitution both these situations are not possible.
In the first indifference curve is a downward sloping straight line. It
signifies that marginal rate of substitution of apples for oranges remains
constant, as shown by AB = CD = EF. Such an indifference curve can be
possible only in case of perfect substitutes.
If indifference curve is concave to the point of origin, it signifies that
marginal rate of substitution of apples for oranges is increasing. It would mean
that as the quantity of apples is increasing, its importance is also increasing,
which it does not happen in real life.
If indifference curve is convex to the point of origin 0, it signifies that
marginal rate of substitution of apples for oranges is diminishing. It means as
the consumer gets more and more apples he parts with less and less units of
oranges. This situation conforms to real life. Consequently, indifference curve
is convex to the point of origin.
3.
Two Indifference Curves never cut each other: Each indifference curve
represents different levels of satisfaction, so their intersection is ruled out.
In this diagram two indifference curves IC1 and IC2 have been shown
intersecting each other at point A, but it is not possible points A and C on
indifference curve IC1 represent combinations yielding equal satisfaction, that
is, A = C Likewise points A and B on indifference curve IC2 represent
combinations yielding equal satisfaction, that is, A = B. It implies that
satisfaction from B combinations equal to satisfaction from C combination, but
it is not possible because in B combination quantity of oranges is more than in
C combination, although quantity of apples in both combinations is equal.
4.
Higher Indifference Curves represent more satisfaction
In this diagram IC2 is higher than IC1. Point B on IC2 represents more
units of apples and oranges than point A on IC1 curve. Hence point B on IC2
will give more satisfaction than point A on IC1. It is evident, therefore, that
higher the indifference curve, greater the satisfaction it represents.
5.
Indifference Curve touches neither x-axis nor y-axis;
In case an indifference curve touches either axis it means that the
consumer wants only one commodity and his demand for the second
commodity is zero. An indifference curve may touch oy-axis if it represents
money instead of a commodity. In this diagram IC touches oy-axis at point M.
It means the consumer has in his possession OM quantity of money and does
not want any unit of apples. At point N consumer likes to have a combination of
OQ units of apples and OP units of money. This combination will yield him
same satisfaction as by keeping OM units of money.
6.
Indifference curves need not be parallel to each other:
Indifference curves mayor may not be parallel to each other. It all
depends on the marginal rate of substitution on two curves shown in the
indifference map. If marginal rate of substitution of different points on two
curves diminishes at constant rate, then these curves will be parallel to each
other, otherwise they will not be parallel.
7.
Indifference curves become complex in case of more than two
commodities: When a consumer desires to have combinations of more than two
commodities, say, three commodities, we will have to draw three dimensional
indifference curves which are quite complex. If the consumer wants a
combination comprising of more than three goods, such a combination cannot
be expressed in the form of a diagram. In that case, we will have to take the
help of algebra.
Some Exceptional Shapes of Indifference Curves :
Some exceptional shapes of indifference curves are as follows:
1.
Straight Line Indifference Curve :
If two goods are perfect substitutes of each other then their indifference
curve may be a straight line with negative slope. It is so because the marginal
rate of substitution of such goods remains constant. Supposing, Brook Bond
and Lipton tea are perfect substitutes of each other. If in place of 1 kg. of Brook
Bond tea the consumer buys 1 Kg. of Lipton tea his total satisfaction remains
unchanged. As such, indifference curve for such kind of goods will not be
convex to the origin, rather it will be a straight line. Marginal rate of
substitution (MRS) of such good goods is always equal to one.
2.
Right angled Indifference Curves: Marginal rate of substitution (MRS)
of perfectly complementary goods is zero.
For example, a consumer will buy right and left shoes in a fixed ratio as
shown in diagram. It is clear that IC1 and IC2 are right angel curves, meaning
thereby that if the consumer buys one piece of each of right and left-shoes, he
will be on point A of IC1. In case he buys 2 pieces of left shoe and only 1 piece
of right shoe, he will be at C of the same IC1. It means, his satisfaction will
remain the same. But if he also buys one more piece of right-shoe, his
satisfaction will definitely increase and he will move to point B of higher
indifference curve IC2. Thus, perfectly complementary goods have indifference
curves of the shape of right angle. Marginal rate of substitution in the case of
such goods is zero (MRSxy = O).
Price Line or Budget Line :
Study of price line is essential to have the knowledge of consumer
equilibrium through indifference curve analysis. It is also known as Budge line,
consumption possibility line, or line of attainable combinations.
A price line represents all possible combinations of two goods, that
consumer can purchase with his given income at the given prices of two goods.
Explanation :
Supposing a consumer has an income of Rs.4.00 to be spent on apples and
oranges. Price of orange is Re. 0.50 per orange and that of apples Re. 1.0 per apple.
With his given income and given prices of apples and oranges, the different
combinations that a consumer can get of these two goods are show in Table and Figure
below:
Table No. 3
Income
Apples
Oranges
(Rs.)
(Re. 1.00)
(Re. 0.50)
4
0
8
4
1
6
4
2
4
4
3
2
4
4
0
It is clear from the table that if the consumer wants to buy oranges only
then he can get a maximum 8 oranges with his entire income of Rupees four.
On the other hand, if the consumer wants to buy apples only, then he can get a
maximum 4 apples with his entire income of Rupees four. Within these two
extreme limits, the other possible combinations that a consumer can get are 1
apple +6 oranges, 2 apples + 4 oranges, 3 apples +2 oranges.
In this diagram different combinations of two goods have been shown by
AB Line. It is called Price Line. It is presumed that the consumer spends his
entire income on the consumption of these two goods, so AB price line is the
limit line of the consumer. Slope of the price line refers to the price ratio of two
goods, apples and oranges, that is,
Slope of price Line =
Px
Py
(Here Px = price of apples and Py = price of oranges)
Shifting of the Price Line :
Position and slope of the price line depends upon two factors : (1)
Income of the consumer and (2) price of the two goods that the consumer
wants. Price line may change due to these two reasons :
1.
Due to change in Income: If prices of the two goods remain unchanged,
then with an increase in income, the price line will shift to the right, and with a
decrease in income it will shift to the left its slope remaining unchanged.
Figure No. 12 indicates that when income of the consumer was Rs.4.00
he could buy those combinations of apples and oranges as were represented by
price line AB. With increase in income, price line shifts to the right as shown
by the line CD. Likewise, if income decreases, price line will shift to the left, as
shown by EF line, its slope remaining the same.
2.
Due to change in price of one commodity
If income of the consumer and price of one commodity remains
unchanged, but the price of other commodity changes, the slope of price line
will also undergo a change. One end of the price line will remain at its place,
but the other end touching the axis of that commodity whose price has changed
to will shift forward from its original place if the price has fallen or shift
backward if the price has risen. It is clear from figure that when the price of
apple falls, slope of the price line will change from AB to AC.
Consumer’s Equilibrium - Indifference Curve Analysis
According to the ordinal approach, a consumer has a given scale of
preference for different combinations of two goods. By just comparing the
levels of satisfaction, he can derive maximum satisfaction out of a given money
income.
Consumer’s equilibrium refers to a situation in which a consumer with
given income and given prices purchases such a combination of goods and
services as gives him maximum satisfaction and he is not willing to make any
change in it.
Assumptions:
1.
Consumer is rational and so maximises his satisfaction from the
purchase of two goods.
2.
Consumer’s income is constant.
3.
Prices of the goods are constant.
4.
Consumer knows the price of all things.
5.
Consumer can spend his income in small quantities.
6.
Goods are divisible.
7.
There is perfect competition in the market.
8.
Consumer is fully aware of the indifference map.
Conditions of Consumer’s Equilibrium :
There are two main conditions of consumer’s equilibrium;
(i)
Price line should be tangent to the indifference curve, i.e.
MRSxy = Px / Py
(ii)
Indifference curve should be convex to the point of origin.
(iii)
Price line should be tangent to indifference curve:
In this diagram AB is the price line. IC1, IC2 and IC3 are indifference
curves. A consumer can buy those combinations which are not only on price
line AB but also coincide with the highest indifference curve which is IC2 in
this case. The consumer will be in equilibrium at combination D (2 apples + 4
oranges) because at this point price line AB is tangent to the indifference curve
IC2. At equilibrium point D, slope of indifference curve and price line coincide.
Slope of indifference curve is indicative of marginal rate of substitution of good
x for good y (MRSxy) and slope of price line is indicative of the ratio of price
of good x (Px) and price of good y (Py). In case of equilibrium:
Slope of indifference curve = slope of price line
Px
MRSxy = Py
(ii)
Indifference Curve must be convex to the origin: It means that marginal
rate of substitution of good x for good y should be diminishing. If at the
point of equilibrium, indifference curve is concave and not convex to the
origin, it will not be a position of permanent equilibrium.
In this diagram AB is the price line. IC is the indifference curve. At point
E, price line AB is tangent to indifference curve, but point E is not a permanent
equilibrium point because at this point, marginal rate of substitution is
increasing instead of diminishing. At point E, indifference curve is concave to
its point of origin 0 and so it is a violation of second condition of equilibrium.
Hence the consumer is in equilibrium at point E IC curve. At point E, Price line
AB is tangent to IC, curve, which is convex to the point of origin.
Income, Substitution and Price Effect :
Consumer’s equilibrium is affected by change in his income, change in
the price of substitutes, and change in the price of good consumed. These
changes are known as (1) Income effect (2) Substitution effect and (3) Price
effect, respectively.
1.
Income Effect
The income effect is the effect on the consumption of two goods caused
by change in income, if prices of goods remain constant.
The income effect may be defined as the effect on the purchases of the
consumer caused by change in income, if price remains constant. Income effect
indicates that, other things being equal, increase in income increases the
satisfaction of the consumer. As a result, equilibrium point shifts upward to the
right. On the contrary, decrease in income decrease the satisfaction of the
consumer and his equilibrium point shifts downwards to the left.
In this diagram consumer’s initial equilibrium is at point E on price line
AB. When his income increases, his equilibrium point shifts to the right i.e. E,
on price line C-D. With decrease in his income, his equilibrium point shifts to
the left i.e. E 2 on price line EF. Locus of all these equilibrium points is called
income consumption curve. It starts from the point of origin 0 meaning thereby
that when the income of the consumer is zero, his consumption of apples and
oranges will also be zero.
Income Consumption Curve:
As shown in figure No. 16, effect of change in income is reflected in
Income Consumption Curve (ICC). This curve is a locus of tangency points of
price lines and indifference curves.
Income consumption curve refers to the effect of change in income on
the equilibrium of the consumer.
Slope of income consumption curve is positive in case of normal goods,
but it is negative in case of inferior goods.
(i)
Positive Slope
Income consumption curve is positive in case of normal goods. In other
words, consumption of both normal goods (x and y) increases with increase in
income. As shown in the diagram, income consumption curve (ICC) of normal
goods slopes upwards from left to right signifying that more of both the goods
will be bought when income increases. ICC curve indicates that expenditure on
both the goods will increase in almost the same ratio. ICC, curve indicates a
higher proportionate increase in the expenditure on good - x, and ICC2 curve
indicates a higher proportionate increase in expenditure on good - y.
(ii)
Negative Slope:
Income effect of inferior goods is negative. It means inferior goods are
brought in less quantity when income of the consumer increases.
Suppose x-good is inferior and y-good is normal. Price line AB, drawn
on the basis of given income of the consumer and given prices of the two
commodities, touches indifference curve IC1 at point E which is the point of
consumer’s equilibrium. As the income of the consumer goes on increasing,
price line goes on shifting to the right as CD and GH touching IC2 and IC3 at
points E1 and E2, respectively. Consequently, the quantity of good x falls from
OM to OM1 and OM2. In this way, increase in the income of the consumer is
followed by decrease in the quantity demanded for inferior good-x by MMI and
M1M2 respectively. This decline in quantity demanded reflects negative income
effect. By joining together different equilibrium points E, E1 and E2 one gets
income consumption curve which slopes backward to the left. It indicates
negative income effect.
2.
Substitution Effect :
If with the change in the prices of goods the money income of the
consumer changes in such a way that his real income remains constant, the
consumer will substitute cheaper good for the dearer ones. Consequently, it will
effect the quantity purchased of both the goods. I’ his effect is known as
substitution effect.
Substitution effect shows the change in the quantity of the goods
purchased due to change in the relative prices alone while real income remains
constant.
Supposing the income of the consumer is Rs.4.00 which he spends on
the purchase of oranges and apples. Price of oranges is 50 paise per orange and
that of apples Re. 1.00 per apple. With this income he buys 4 oranges and 2
apples and finds himself in an equilibrium.
In this, diagram AB is the price line and IC1 is the original indifference
curve. Consumer is in equilibrium at point E. He is getting ON units of oranges
and OM units of apples. Supposing apples become cheaper. Consequently, AB
Price line will shift towards the right on ox-axis as AC and be tangent to higher
indifference curve IC2 at Point D which will be the new equilibrium point of the
consumer. Now his real income will be more than before. If the real income of
the consumer should remain the same as before, we will have to take away
some of his money income. Now his price line will be GH which will be
parallel to price line AC. The new price line GH is tangent to indifference curve
IC1 at point F which will be the new point of equilibrium. He will substitute
MQ apples for NP oranges. In this way, consumer’s marginal rate of
substitution of apples for oranges will be MQ / NP. This substitution of
relatively cheaper good for dearer ones is called substitution effect. Thus
movement from equilibrium point E to equilibrium point F on the same
indifference curve IC1 indicates the substitution effect.
3.
Price - Effect :
Price effect means change in the consumption of goods .when the price
of either of the two goods changes, while the price of the other good and the
income of the consumer remain constant.
Supposing IC is the original indifference curve and AB the original price
line and consumer is in equilibrium at point E. As the price of apple falls, new
price line will be AD which touches higher indifference curve IC1 ant point E1.
It means fall in price of any good will increase the satisfaction of the consumer.
On the contrary, if the price of apples rises, the new price line will be
AN which will touch the lower indifference curve at point E2, the new
equilibrium point. It means arise in price will reduce the level of satisfaction of
the consumer.
By joining together different equilibrium points E2, E, E1, one gets the
price consumption curve (PCC). The price consumption curve for commodity X
is the locus of points of consumer’s equilibrium when the price of only X
varies, the price of Y and income of the consumer remaining constant.
Price Effect is the Suni of Substitution Effect and Income Effect :
When the price of a commodity changes, it has two effects: (i) There is
change in the real income of the consumer leading to change in his
consumption. It is called income effect; (ii) Secondly, due to change in relative
prices, the consumer substitutes relatively cheaper goods for the dearer ones. It
is called substitution effect. The combination of this income and substitution
effect is called price effect. Thus, Price Effect = Income Effect + Substitution
Effect.
Supposing AB is the original price line and IC the original indifference
curve. Consumer is in equilibrium at point E. When the price of apple falls, the
new price line shift from AB to AC. The new price line touches higher
indifference curve IC at point E, which is the new equilibrium point. Movement
from E1 signifies the Price Effect.
Fall in price of apples means increase in the real income of the
consumer. If the monetary income of the consumer is reduced to such an extent
that the real income remains the same as before, in that case the new price line
will be PH and new equilibrium point E 2’ The movement from E toE2 reflects
the Substitution Effect. If due to fall in price of apples, the money income of the
consumer is not reduced, the consumer will move from equilibrium point E2 to
E1. Thus movement from E2 to E1, shows the Income Effect.
Due to fall in the price of apples a consumer buys more of apples, it is
called price effect. Consumer buys MT units of apples. Of these, he buys MN
units on account of substitution effect and NT units on account of income
effect. It means, with regard to demand for apples:
Price Effect = OM to OT i.e. MT
Substitution Effect = OM to ON i.e. MN
Income Effect = MN to MT i.e. NT
Thus MT = MN + NT
Price Effect = Substitution Effect + Income Effect
Critism :
Robertson, Armstrong, Knight etc. have criticised indifference curve
analysis on account of the following.
1.
Unrealistic assumption : Indifference curve analysis is based on the
assumption that a consumer has complete knowledge regarding the
preference of two goods. In reality, he cannot take quick decisions in real
life in respect of different combinations.
2.
Complex analysis : Indifference curve analysis can explain easily that
behaviour of the consumer which is restricted to the combination of only
two goods. If the consumer wants combinations of more than two goods,
then indifference curve analysis becomes highly complex.
3.
Imaginary : Indifference curve analysis is based on imaginary
combinations. A consumer does not decide always like a computer as to
which of the combinations of two goods he would prefer.
4.
Assumption of Convexity : This theory does not explain why an
indifference curve is convex to the point of origin. In real life, it is not
necessary that all goods should have diminishing marginal rate of
substitution.
5.
Unrealistic combinations : When we consider different Combinations
of two goods, sometimes we come across such funny combinations that
have no meaning for the consumer. For instance, there is a combination
of 10 shirts + 2 pairs of shoes. If in the subsequent combinations shirts
are given up to get more pairs of shoes then we way arrive at a
combination representing 2 shirts + 10 pairs of shoes, which is
rediculous.
6.
Impractical : Indifference curve analysis is based on the unrealistic
assumption that goods are homogenous. ‘This assumption holds good
only under perfect competition, which is more 9 theoretical concept. In
real life, monopolistic and oligopolistic conditions are found more
prevelents.
However, compared to utility analysis, indifference curve analysis is an
improved technique of consumer’s behaviour.
Revealed Preference Theory
Revealed Preference Theory was put forward by Somvelson in 1938 and
it is based on the actual market behaviour of consumer. Accordingly, it is a
behaviouristic approach. On the other hand, utility and Indifference Curve
Approaches are the psychological and interospective approaches.
Assumptions :
Revealed Preference Theory involves the following assumptions :
1.
There is no change in the taste of the consumers.
2.
The choice of the consumer for a particular combination reveals his
preference.
3.
The consumer chooses only one combination on a given price income
line.
4.
Assumption of consistency in the consumer’s behaviour. That is if
combination B can’t be preferred to A is another situation.
A > B, then B |> A
5.
Assumption of transitivity in consumer’s behaviour: Transitivity means
that if combination A is preferred to B and, B>C, then A must be
preferred to C. This assumption is necessary for Revealed Preference
Theory.
6.
Assumption of the concept of ordinal utility, i.e., Revealed preference
Theory regards utility to be merely comparable.
Theme of Revealed Preference Theory :
The basic essence or theme of Revealed Preference Theorem is shown
below in the diagram.
In this diagram, AB is the price line which represents given Price Income
situation. The consumer can buy or choose any combination on this price line
and below this price line within OAB. Suppose the consumer chooses
combination Q. It means consumer has revealed his preference for Combination
Q to all other combinations on AB price line and below it. It means
combination is revealed preferred to all other combinations on and below AB
price line, such as E, G, D, and F. In other words, all combinations with in OAB
are revealed inferior to combination Q. In this situation consumer is purchasing
ox of x and oy of y. However, a combination within right angle KQT such as Z
is artainly superior to Q.
Implications Significance of Revealed
Preference Theory :
Revealed Preference Theory is significant because :
1.
It can be used to explain convexity of Indifference Curve.
2.
it can be used to explain Demand Theory or fundamental theorem of
consumption or Slutsky Theorem.
I.
Revealed Preference Theory can be used to derive the convexity of
indifference curve.
This proved as under :
In this diagram under given price Income situation, original price line is
AB on which consumer selects a combination Q. Q is revealed preferred to all
other combinations on AB line and within OAB. A point like 2 within KQT is
superior to Q. We have to prove the convexity of indifference curve through
point Q. The indifference curve cannot enter the area OAB as this area is
inferior to Q. The indifference curve cannot enter the area KQT because it is
superior to Q. The area between QT and QB and between QK and QA is the
zone of ignorance. We can reduce the zone of ignorance with reference to, new
line such as A, B and on this line suppose Q is selected. It means Q, is revealed
preferred to all other combinations on A1, B1 and below it. But since Q1 is
inferior to Q, Q1, BB1 is also inferior to Q. This area is out off from the zone of
ignorance. Similarly, we can repeat the same process on the upper side. The
superior area can also be discovered from the zone of ignorance by drawing
another line such as yy which passes through Q on this line. Combination G is
superior to Q as G was not available when Q was selected. In the same way we
can draw more such points and we can draw an offer curve on which we have
combination which are superior to Q. It proves that indifference curve throng Q
cannot enter the superior area and inferior area so it must b convex to the origin.
2.
Revealed Preference Theory can be used to explain Demand
Theory of Fundamental Theorm of consumption theory: According to
Marshall’s Law of demand, there is inverse relationship between the price of
commodity and quantity demanded. Samuelson in his revealed preference
theory establishes inverse relationship between price and quantity demand by
assuming positive income elasticity of demand. Samuelson called this demand
theorm as a fundamental theorm of consumption theory.
The fundamental theorm or simple demand theorm is based upon the
positive income elasticity of demand. There is inverse relationship between
price and quantity demanded. This can be proved asunder both when price
decreases and price increases.
Inverse price and quantity demanded relationship in the case of price
decrease is as shown below :
In Fig. 24, AB price line represents original price income situation.
Suppose consumer reveals preference for combination Q over all other
combinations on AB line and within GAB. Its price of x falls, the new price line
shifts to AB. Let us take away the increased real income from the consumers so
that he is able to buy the old combination Q. Hence a cost difference line CC1 is
drawn parallel to AB, and through point Q. He cannot choose any combination
like E on QC portion of the price line. This is because E was rejected when Q
was selected. Thus, if he buys a combination such as E1 it means quantity
demanded of X increases when price of X falls. If the money taken away from
him is returned, he will definitely buy more of X when price of X falls provided
income elasticity of demand for X is positive.
Demand theorm can also be explained in the case of increase in price. It
is shown below.
In Fig 25, AB is the original price line under given price income
situation. Suppose the consumer prefers combination Q on AB price line. When
the price of X increases, the new price line is AB. New Combination Q is not
available and suppose we compensate the consumer by giving him extra money
equal to decrease in real income so that he can buy the same combination Q.
Hence a line CC, is drawn through Q on this new price line. Now the consumer
will choose either Q or E, but he cannot choose T as it lies within OAB. T was
rejected when O was selected. The choice of E is consistent because it was not
available when Q was selected. If E is selected, it means quantity of x would be
purchased at higher price. If money income which is given as a compensation
when P rises is not paid to the consumer, the consumer will have to buy smaller
quantity of X when price of x increases.
Thus Revealed Preference Theory proves if income elasticity of demand
is positive price and quantity demanded will be inversely related, i.e., demand
curve will be downward sloping.
An Evaluation :
Somuelson’s Revealed Preference Theory has been regarded as superior
to marshallian utility theory and Hicks Ordinal analysis. This is owing to the
following :
(1)
Revealed Preference Theory is superior because it is behaviouristic
whereas utility analysis and indifference curve analysis were
psychological and introspective by nature. Somuelson’s theory is based
on actual market behaviour of a consumer.
(2)
Revealed Preference Theory avoids the continuity assumption. Which is
found in both the utility approach and the indifference curve analysis.
(3)
Somuelson’s theory is superior because it avoids the assumption of
maximisation of satisfaction.
(4)
Revealed Preference Theory is also useful in the combination of index
numbers.
(5)
Revealed Preference Theory provides the basis for welfare economics.
Inspite of these merits Revealed Preference Theory has its own
weaknesses.
(1)
Revealed Preference Theory neglects indifference in consumer
behaviour.
(2)
Samuelson theory is conditional in the sense that under a given price
income situation consumer chooses, something of both the things, but it
is very rare that he purchases something, of everything.
(3)
The assumption that choice reveals preference is not always valid. Infact
choice does not often reveal preference because choice requires rational
behaviour and consumer behaviour is not always rational.
(4)
Revealed Preference Theory is applicable only where the demand curve
is downward sloping. But this approach does not help derive the demand
curve.
(5)
Revealed Preference Theory is not adequate to explain the demand
Theorem.
Lesson - 4
LAW OF DEMAND AND ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
(Author : Bhag Singh Bodla)
4.1
INTRODUCTION
It is essential for the business managers to have a clear understanding of
the following aspects of the demand for their products :
i)
What are the sources of demand?
ii)
What are the determinants of demand?
iii)
How do the buyers decide the quantity of a product to be
purchased?
iv)
How do the buyers respond to the change in a product prices, their
income and prices of the related goods?
v)
How can the total of market demand for a product for a product
be assessed and forecast?
These questions are answered by the Theory of Demand. In this and the
following lessons we will discuss the theory of individual and market demand.
4.2
MEANING OF DEMAND
The term ‘demand’ robers to a ‘desire’ for a commodity backed by
ability and willingness to pay for it. Unless a person has an adequate purchasing
power or resources and the preparedness to spend his resources, his desire for a
commodity would not be considered as his demand. For example, if a man
wants to buy a car but he does not have sufficient money to pay for, his want is
not his demand for the car. A want with three attributes - desire to buy,
willingness to pay and ability to pay - becomes effective demand. Only an
effective demand figures in economic analysis and business decisions.
The term ‘demand’ for a commodity (i.e., quantity demanded) has
always a reference to ‘a price’, ‘a period of time’ and ‘a place’. Any statement
regarding the demand for a commodity without reference to its price, time of
purchase and place is meaningless and is of no practical use. For instance, to
say ‘demand for TV sets is 50,000' carries no meaning for a business decision,
nor it any use in any kind of economic analysis. A
4.3
INDIVIDUAL DEMAND FORA COMMODITY
The theory of consumer’s equilibrium provides a convenient basis for
the derivation of individual demand curve for a commodity. Marshall was the
first economist to explicitly derive the demand curve from consumer’s utility
function. Marshall gave the equilibrium condition for the consumption of a
commodity, say X, as MUx = P2 (MUm).
The derivation of individual demand for commodity is illustrated in Fig.
4.1 (a) and 3.3 (b). Suppose that the consumer is in equilibrium at point E1,
where given the price of X, MUx = P3 (MUm). Here equilibrium quantity is
OQ1. Now if price of the commodity falls to P2, the equilibrium condition will
be disturbed making MUx > P3 (MUm). Since MUm is constant, the only way to
restore the equilibrium condition is to reduce MUx, by buying more of
commodity X. Thus, by consuming Q1 Q2 additional units of X he reduces his
MUx to E2 Q2 and reaches a new equilibrium position at point E2 where MUx =
P2 (MUm). Similarly, if price falls further, he buys and consume more to
maximise his satisfaction.
Fig 4.1 (a) reveals that when price is P3, equilibrium eqantity is OQ1.
When price decreases to P2 equilibrium point shifts downward to point E2
where equilibrium quantity is OQ2 Similarly, when price decreases to P1 and P
(MUm) line shifts downward, the equilibrium point shifts to E1 where
equilibrium quantity is OQ. Note that P3 > P2 > P1 and the corresponding
quantities OQ1, < OQ2 < OQ3. It means that as price decreases, the equilibrium
quantity increases. This inverse price-quantity relationship is the basis of the
law of demand, explained below.
The inverse price and quantity relationship is shown in part (b) of Fig.
3.3. The price quantity combination corresponding to equilibrium point E3 is
shown at point. J. Similarly, the price-quantity combinations corresponding to
equilibrium points, E2 and E1 are shown at points K and L, respectively. By
joining points J, K and L, we get individual’s demand curve for commodity X
The demand curve Dx in the usual downward sloping Marshallian demand
curve.
Demand under Variable Mum
We have explained above the consumer’s equilibrium and derived his
demand curve under the assumption that MUm remains constant. This analysis
holds even if MUm is assumed to be variable. This can be explained as follows.
Suppose MUm is variable - it decreases with increase in stock of money
and vice varsa. Under this condition, if price of commodity fall and the
consumer buys only as many units as he did before the fall in price, he saves
some money on this commodity. As a result his stock of money increases and
his MUm decreases, whereas MUm remains unchanged because his stock of
commodity remains unchanged. As a result, his MUm exceeds his MUm. When
a consumer exchanges money for commodity, his stock of money decreases and
stock of commodity increases. As a result, MUm increases MUc decreases. The
consumer therefore exchans money for commodity until MUc = MUm.
Consequently, demand for a commodity increases when its price fall.
4.4
THE LAW OF DEMAND
The law of demand states that the demand for a commodity increases
when its price decreases and it falls when its price rises, other things
remaining constant. This is an empirical law, i.e., this law is based on
observed facts and can be verified with new empirical data. As the law reveals,
there is an inverse relationship between the price and quantity demanded. The
law holds under the condition that “other things remain constant”. “Other
things” include other determinants of demand, viz., consumers’ income, price
of the substitutes and complements, taste and preferences of the consumer, etc.
These factors remain constant only in the short run. In the long run they tend to
change. The law of demand, therefore, hold only in the short run.
Demand Schedule
The law of demand can be presented through a demand schedule.
Demand Schedule is a series of prices placed in descending (or ascending) order
and the corresponding quantities which consumers would like to buy per unit of
time. Based on the logic of demand curve in Fig. 4.1 (b), a hypothetical demand
schedule for a commodity, tea, is given in Table 4.1
Table 4.1 Demand Schedule for Tea
Price per cup of
tea (Rs.)
consumer per day
No. of cups of tea
demand by a
combination
Points representing
Price-quantity
7
1
i
6
2
j
5
3
k
4
4
I
3
5
m
2
6
n
1
7
0
4.1 presents seven alternative prices of tea and the corresponding
quantities (number of cups of tea) demanded per day. At each price, a unique
quantity is demanded. As the table shows, as price of tea per cup decreases,
daily demand for tea increases. This relationship between, quantity demanded
of a product and its price is the basis of the law of demand.
The Demand Curve
The law of demand can also be presented through a demand curve. A
demand curve is a locus of points showing various alternative pricequantity combinations. Demand curve shows the quantities of a commodity
which a consumer would buy at different prices
Fig. 4.2 Demand Curve for Tea
per unit of time, under the assumptions of the law of demand. By plotting the
data given in Table 4.1, we obtain an individual demand curve for tea, as shown
in Fig. 4.2. The curve DD is the demand curve. It reads the law of demand.
Each point on the demand curve shows one unique price-quantity combination.
The combinations read downward along the demand curve show decreasing
price of tea and increasing number of cups of tea demanded. Price-quantity
combinations read upwards show increasing price of tea per cup and decreasing
number of cups of tea per day consumed by an individual. Thus, the demand
curve shows a functional relationship between the alternative prices of a
commodity and its corresponding quantities which consumer would like to buy
during a specific period of time, say day, per week, per month, per season, or
per year.
Factors behind the Law of Demand
As Fig. 4.2 shows, demand curve slopes downward to the right. The
downward slope of the demand curve depicts the law of demand, i.e., the
quantity of a commodity demanded per unit of time increases as its price falls,
and vice verse. The factors that make the law of demand operate are following.
Substitution Effect
When price of a commodity falls, prices of all other related goods
(particularly of substitutes) remaining constant, the goods of latter category
become relatively costlier. Or, in other words, the commodity whose price has
fallen becomes relatively cheaper. Since utility maximising consumers
substitute cheaper goods for costlier ones, demand for the cheaper commodity
increases. The increase in demand on account of this factor is known a
substitution effect.
Income Effect
As a result of fall in the price of a commodity, the real income of the
consumer increases. Consequently, his purchasing power increases since he is
required to pay less for the same quantity. The increase in real income
encourages the consumer to demand more of goods and services. The increase
in demand on account of increase in real income is known as income effect. It
should however be noted that the income effect is negative in case of inferior
goods. In case the price of an inferior goods accounting for a considerable
proportion of the total consumption expenditure falls substantially, consumers’
real income increases and they become relatively richer: Consequently, they
substitute the superior goods for the inferior ones. As a result, the consumption
of inferior goods falls. Thus, the income effect on the demand for inferior goods
becomes negative.
Utility-Maximising Behavior
The utility-maximising behavior of the consumer under the condition of
diminishing marginal utility is also responsible for increase in demand for a
commodity when its price falls. As mentioned above, when a person buys a
commodity, he exchanges his money income for the commodity in order to
maximise his satisfaction. He continues to buy goods and services so long as
marginal utility of his money (MUm) is less than the marginal utility of the
commodity (MUo). Given the price of a commodity, the consumer adjusts his
purchases. so that.
MUm = Po = MUo
When price of the commodity falls, (MUm = Po) < MUo, and equilibrium
is disturbed. In order to regain his equilibrium, the consumer will have to
reduce the MUo to the level of MUm. This he can do only by purchasing more
of the commodity. Therefore, the consumer purchases the commodity till MUm
= Po = MUo. This is another reason why demand for a commodity increases
when its price decreases.
Exceptions to the Law of Demand
The law of demand does not apply to the following cases.
(a)
Expectations regarding further prices. When consumers expect a
continuous increase in the price of a durable commodity, they buy more of it
despite increase in its price with a view to avoiding the pinch of a much higher
price in future. For instance, in pre-budget months, prices generally tend to rise.
Yet, people buy more of storable goods in anticipation of further rise in prices
due to new levies.
(b)
Status Goods. The law does not apply to the commodities which
are used as a status symbol’ of enhancing social prestige or for displaying
wealth and riches, e.g., gold,’ precious stones, rare paintings, antiques, etc. Rich
people buy such goods mainly because their prices are high and buy more of
them when their prices move up.
(c)
Giffen Goods. Another exception to the law of demand is the
classic case of Giffen goods2. A Giffen good may be any inferior commodity
much cheaper than its superior substitutes, consumed by the poor households as
an essential commodity. If price of such goods increases (price of its substitute
remaining constant), its demand increases instead of decreasing because, in case
of a Giffen good, income effect of a price rise is greater than its, substitution
effect. The reason is, when price of, an inferior good increases, income
remaining the same, poor people cut the consumption of the superior substitute
so that they may buy more of the inferior good in order to meet their basic need.
4.5
SHIFT IN DEMAND CURVE
When demand curve changes its position (retaining its shape though not
necessarily), the change is known as shift in demand curve. Consider, for
instance, the demand curves viz. D1, D2 and D3 in Fig. 4.3. Let us suppose that
demand curve D2 is the original demand curve for commodity X. As shown in
the figure, at price OP2. Consumer buys OQ2 units of X, other factors remaining
constant. But, if any of the other factor (e.g. consumer’s in come or price of the
substitutes) changes, it will change the consumer’s ability and willingness to
buy commodity X. For example, if consumer’s disposable income decreases
due to increase in income tax, he may be able to buy only OQ1 units of X
instead of OQ2. The is true for the whole range of prices of X; consumers would
be able to buy less at all other prices. This will cause a downward shift in
demand curve D2 to D1. Similarly, increase in disposable income of the
consumer due to, say, reduction in taxes may cause an upward shift in D2 to D3.
Such changes in the location of demand curves are known as shift in demand
curve.
Reasons for Shift in Demand Curve
Shifts in a price-demand curve may take place owing to the change in
one or more determinants of the demand for a commodity. Consider, for
example, the decrease in demand for commodity X by Q1 Q2 in Fig. 4.3. Given
the price OP2, the demand for x might have fallen from OQ2 to OQ1 (i.e., by
Q1Q2) for any of the following reasons.
(i)
Fall in consumer’s income so that he can buy only OQ1 of X at price
OP2; it is income effect;
(ii)
Price of X’s substitute falls so that the consumers find it worthwhile to
substitute Q1 Q2of X with its substitute; it is substitution effect;
(iii)
Advertisement made by the producer of the substitute, changes
consumer’s taste or preference against commodity X so much that they
replace Q1 Q2 of it with its substitute, again a substitution effect ;
(iv)
Price of complement of X has increased so much that the consumer can
now afford only OQ1 of X; and
(v)
Price remaining the same, demand for X might also decrease for such
reasons as X going out it of fashion, deterioration in its quality, change
in consumer’s technology and seasonality of the product.
4.6
DETERMINANTS OF MARKET DEMAND
(1)
Price of the Product
The price of product is one of the most important determinants of its de-
mand in
quantity
quantity
per unit
the long run, and the only determinant in the short run. The price and
demand are inversely related. The law of demand states that the
demanded of a product which its consumers/users would like to buy
of time, increases when its price falls, and decreases when its price
increases, other factors remaining constant. The assumption other factors
remaining constant’ implies that income of the consumers, prices of the
substitutes and complementary goods, consumer’s taste and preference, and
number of consumers, remain unchanged. (The law of demand has already been
discussed in detail in the previous chapter).
(2)
Price of the Related Goods
The demand for a commodity is also affected by the changes in the price
of its related goods. Related gods may be substitutes or complementary goods.
Substitutes. Two commodities are deemed to be substitutes for each
other if change in the price of one affects the demand for the other in the same
direction. F or instance, commodities X and Y are considered as substitutes for
each other if a rise in the price of X increases demand for Y2 and vice versa.
Tea and coffee, hamburgers and hot-dog, alcohol and drugs are some examples
of substitutes in case of consumer goods.
By definition, the relation between demand for a product and price of its
substitute is of positive nature. When price of the substitute (say, coffee) of a
product (tea) falls (or increases), the demand for the product falls (or increases).
The relationship of this nature is given in Fig. 4.4 (a).
Fig. 4.4 Demand for Substitutes and Complements
Complements. A commodity is deemed to be a complement for another
when it complements the use of the other or when the use of the two goods goes
together so that their demand changes (increases or decreases) simultaneously.
For example, petrol is a complement to car and scooters, butter and jam to
bread, milk and sugar to tea and coffee, mattress to cot, etc. Two goods are
termed as complementary to each other if an increase in the price of one causes
a decrease in demand for the other. By definition, there is an inverse relation
between the demand for a good and the price of its complement. For instance,
an increase (or decrease) in the price of petrol causes a decrease (or an increase)
in the demand for car and other petrol-run vehicles, other things remaining the
same. The nature of relationship between the demand for a product and the
price of its complement is given in Fig. 4.4 (b).
(3)
Consumer’s Income
Income is the basic determinant of quantity of a product demanded since
it determines the purchasing power of the consumer. That is why the people
with higher current disposable income spend a larger amount on goods and
services than those with lower income. Income-demand relationship is of more
varied nature than that between demand and its other determinants. While other
determinants of demand, e.g., product’s own price and the price of its
substitutes are more significant in the short-run, income as a determinant of
demand is equally important in both short run and long run.
(a)
Essential consumer goods (ECG). The goods and services of
this category are called ‘basic needs’ and are consumed by all persons of a
society, e.g., food grains, salt, vegetable oils, matches, cooking fuel, a minimum
clothing and housing. Quantity demanded of this category of goods increases
with increase in consumer’s income but only up to certain limit, even though
the total expenditure may increase in accordance with the quality of goods
consumed, other factors remaining the same. The relationship between goods of
this category and consumer’s income is shown by the curve ECG in Fig. 4.5 As
the curve shows, consumer’s demand for essential goods increases only until
his income rises to OY2. It tends to saturate beyond this level of income.
(b)
Inferior goods. Inferior and superior goods are widely, know to
both the consumers and the sellers. For instance, every consumer knows that
millet is inferior to wheat and rice; bidi (indigenous cigarette) is inferior to
cigarette, coarse textiles are inferior to refiI1ed ones, kerosene is inferior to
cooking gas; travelling by bus is inferior to travelling by taxi, so on and so
forth. In economic sense, however, a commodity is deemed to be inferior if its
demand decreases with the increase in consumer’s income. The relation
between income and demand for an inferior goods is shown by the curve IG in
Fig. 4.5 under the assumption that other determinants of demand remain the
same. Demand for such goods rises only up to a certain level of income (say,
OY1) and declines as income increases beyond this level.
Fig. 4.5 Income Demand Curves
(c)
Normal goods. Technically, normal are those which are
demanded in increasing quantities as consumers’ income rises. Clothing’s,
household furniture and, automobiles are some of the important examples of
this category of goods. The nature of relation between income and demand for
the goods of this category is shown by the curve NG in Fig. 4.5. As the curve
shown, demand for such good increases with the increases in income of the
consumer, but at different rates at different levels of income. Demand for
normal goods increases rapidly with the increase in the consumer’s income but
slows down with further increase in income.
(d)
Prestige and luxury goods. Prestige goods are those which are
consumed mostly by rich section of the society, e.g., precious stones, antiques,
rare, paintings, luxury cars and such other items of show-off. Though it may
look controversial, luxury items include jewellery, costly brands of cosmetics,
TV sets, refrigerators, electrical gadgets, cad, etc. Demand for such goods arises
beyond a certain level of consumer’s income i.e. consumption enters the area of
luxury goods. Producers of such items, while assessing the demand for their
product, should consider the income changes in the richer section of the society,
not only the per capita income (see curve, LG in Fig. 4.5).
(4)
Consumer’s taste and preference
Consumer’s taste and preference play an important role in determining
demand for a product, Taste and preference depend, generally, on the changing
lifestyle, social customs, religious values attached to a commodity, habit of the
people, the general levels of living of the society, and age and sex of the
consumers. Change in these factors changes consumers’ taste and preferences.
As a result, consumer reduce or give up the consumption of some goods and
add new ones to their consumption pattern. For example, following the change
in fashion, people switch their consumption pattern from cheaper, old fashioned
goods over to costlier ‘mod’ goods, so long as price differentials are
commensurate with their preferences.
(5)
Advertisement Expenditure
Advertisement costs are incurred with the objective of promoting sale of
the product. Advertisement helps in increasing demand for the product in at
least four ways: (a) by informing the potential consumers, about the availability
of the product; (b) by showing its superiority to the rival product; (c) by
influencing consumers’ choice against the rival products; and (d) by setting
fashions and changing tastes. The impact of such effects shifts the demand
upward to the right. IN other words, other factors remaining the same, as
expenditure on advertisement increases, volume of sale increases to an extent.
The relation between advertisement outlay and sales is shown in Fig. 4.6.
Fig. 4.6 Advertisement and Sale
(6)
Consumers’ Expectations
Consumers’ expectations regarding the future prices, income, and supply
position of goods, etc. play important role in determining the demand for goods
and services in the short run. If consumers expect a rise in the price of a
storable commodity, they would buy more of if at its current price with a view
to avoiding the pinch of price-rise in future. ON the contrary, if consumers
expect a fall in the price of certain goods, they postpone their purchase of such
goods with a view to taking advantage of lower prices in future, mainly in case
of non-essential goods. This behaviour of consumers reduces the current
demand for the goods whose prices are expected to decrease in future.
(7)
Consumer-Credit Facility
Availability of credit to the consumers from the sellers, banks, relations
and friends or from any other source encourages the consumers to buy more
than what they would buy in the absence of credit availability. That is why, the
consumers who can borrow more can consume more than those who cannot
borrow Credit facility affects mostly the demand for durable goods, particularly
those which require bulk payment at the time of purchase. The car-loan facility
may be one reason why Delhi has more cars than Calcutta, Chennai and
Mumbai.
(8)
Population of the Country
The total domestic demand for a product of mass consumption depends
also on the size of the population. Given the price, per capita income, taste and
preference etc., the larger the population, the larger the demand for a product
with an increase (or decrease) in the size of population, employment percentage
remaining the same, demand for the product will increase (or decrease).
(9)
Distribution of National Income
The distribution pattern of the national income is also an important
determinant of a product. If national income is evenly distributed, market
demand for normal goods will be the largest. If national income is evenly
distributed, market demand for normal goods will be the largest. If national
income is unevenly distributed, i.e., if majority of population belongs to the
lower income groups, market demand for essential goods, including inferior
ones, will be the largest whereas the demand for other kinds of goods will be
relatively less.
4.7
DEMAND FUNCTION
In mathematical language, a function is a symbolic statement of
relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. Demand
function states the relationship between the demand for a product (the
dependent variable) and its determinants (the independent variables). Let us
consider a very simple case of demand function. Suppose all the determinants
of demand for commodity X, other than its price, remain constant. This is a
case of short-run demand function. In case of a short-run demand function
quantity demanded of X, (Dx) depends only on its price (Px). The demand
function can then be stated as ‘demand for commodity X, (Dx) depends on its
price (Px)’ The same statement may be symbolically written as
Dx = f (Px)
….(4.1)
in this function. Dx is a dependent and Px is an independent variable. The
function (4.1) reads ‘demand for commodity X (i.e., Dx) is the function of its
price (i.e., Px)’. It implies that a change in Px (the independent variable) causes
a change in Dx (the dependent variable).
The form of demand function depends on the nature of demand-price
relationship. The two most common forms of demand-price relationship are
linear and nonlinear. Accordingly, the demand function may assume a linear
or a nonlinear form.
Linear Demand Function
A demand function is said to be linear when it results in a linear demand
curve. Eq. (4.2) represents a linear form of demand function. Assuming that in
an estimated demand function a = 100 and b =.5, function (4.2) can be written
as
Dx = 100 – 5Px
….. (4.3)
By substituting numerical values for Px, a demand schedule may be
prepared as follows.
Demand Schedule
P
Dx
=
100
–
5Px
Dx
0
D
=
100
–
5×0
100
5
D
=
100
–
5×5
75
10
D
=
100
–
5×10
50
15
D
=
100
–
5×15
25
20
D
=
100
–
5×20
0
This demand schedule when plotted gives a linear demand curve as
shown in Fig. 4.7. Not that the linear demand curve has a constant slope
(DPx/DDx).
From the demand function, one can easily obtain the price function. For
example, given the demand function (4.2), the price function may be written as
P
Or
P
Assuming a/b = a1 and 1/b = b1, the price function may be written as
Px = a1 - b1 Dx
Fig. 4.7 Linear Demand Function.
Nonlinear Demand Function
A demand function is said to be nonlinear or curvilinear when the slope
of the demand curve, (DP/DD) changes all along the curve. Nonlinear demand
function yields a demand curve instead of a demand line, as shown Fig. 4.8. A
nonlinear demand function takes the form of a power function, as
and
D
=
aP -h
D
=
————
a
-b
where a > o, b > o and c > o.
It should be noted that the exponent to the price variable in a nonlinear
demand function (4.5 a) is the coefficient of price elasticity of demand.
4.8
ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND
4.8.1 IMPORTANCE OF ELASTICITY CONCEPT
We have earlier discussed the nature of relationship between demand
and its determinants. Form a managerial point of view, however, the knowledge
of nature of relationship alone is not sufficient. What is more important is the
extent of relationship or the degree of responsiveness of demand to the
changes in its determinants, it, elasticity of demand. The concept of elasticity of
demand plays a crucial role in business-decisions regarding maneuvering of
prices with a view to making larger profits. For instance, when cost of
production is increasing, the firm would want to pass rising cost on to the
consumer by raising the price. Firms may decide to change the price even
without change in cost of production. But whether this action raising the price
following, the, rise in cost or otherwise will prove beneficial depends on (a) the
price elasticity of demand for the products, i.e., how high or low is the
proportionate change in its demand in response to a certain percentage change
in is price; and (b) price, elasticity of demand for its substitute because when
the price of a product increases, the demand for its substitutes increases
automatically even if their prices remains unchanged. Raising price will be
beneficial only if (i) demand for a product is less elastic; and (ii) demand for its
substitute is much less.
In this section, we will discuss various methods of measuring elasticities
of demand. The concepts of demand elasticities used in business decisions are:
(i) Price-elasticity; (ii) Cross-elasticity; (iii) Income-elasticity; and (iv)
Advertisement elasticity, (v) Elasticity ofpri6e expectation.
4.8.2 PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
Price elasticity of demand is generally defined as the responsiveness or
sensitiveness of demand for a commodity to the changes in its price. More
precisely, elasticity of demand is the percentage changes in demand as a
result of one per cent in the price of the commodity. A formal definition of
price-elasticity of demand (ep) is given as
Percentage change in quantity demanded
ep == ——————————————————
Percentage change in price
A general formula2 for calculating coefficient of price-elasticity, derived
from this definition of elasticity, is given as follows.
where Q = original quantity demanded, P = original price, DQ = change in
quantity = demanded, and DP = change in price.
It is important to note here .that, a minus sign (-) is generally inserted in
the formula before the fraction with a view to making elasticity coefficient a
nonnegative value.
The elasticity can be measured between two points on a demand curve
(called are elasticity) or on a point (called point elasticity).
Arc Elasticity
The measure of elasticity of demand between any two finity points on a
demand curve in known as are elasticity. For example, measure of elasticity
between points j and k (Fig. 4.9) is the measure of arc elasticity. The movement
from point j to k on the demand curve (Dx) shows a fall in the price Rs.20 to
Rs.10 so that DP = 20 – 10 = 10. The fall in price increases demand from 43
units to 75 units so that DQ = 43-75 = -32. The elasticity between points) and k
(moving from) to k) can be calculated by substituting these values into the
elasticity formula as follows :
ep
1.49
It means, a one percent decrease in price of commodity X results into a
1.49 per cent increase in demand for it.
Problem in using are elasticity. The are elasticity should be measured,
interpreted and used carefully, otherwise it may lead to wrong decisions. Are
elasticity co-efficients differ between the same two finite points on a demand
curve if direction of change in price is reserved. For instance, as estimated in
Eq. (4.7), the elasticity between points j and k –
Fig. 4.9 Linear Demand Curve
moving from j to k - equals 1.49. It may be wrongly interpreted that the
elasticity of demand for commodity X between points j and k equals 1.49
irrespective of direction of price change. But it is not true. A reverse movement
in the price, i.e., the movement from point k to j implies a different elasticity co
efficient (0.43). Movement from point k to j gives P = 10, DP = 10 – 20 = -10,
Q = 75, Q= 75, and DQ = 75, and DQ = 75 – 43 = 32. By substituting these
values into the elasticity formula, we get.
0.43
32
10
e
=
0.43
p
- —— .
—— =
...(4.8)
Fig. 4.10 Point Elasticity
The measure of elasticity co-efficient in Eq. (4.8) for the reverse
movement in price is obviously different from one given by Eq. (4.7). Thus, the
elasticity depends also on the direction of change in price. Therefore while
measuring price elasticity, the direction of price changes should be carefully
noted.
Point Elasticity
Point elasticity on linear demand curve. Point elasticity is another way
to resolve the problem in measuring the elasticity. The concept of point
elasticity is also useful in measuring the elasticity where change in price and
quantity combinations is infinitesimally small.
Point elasticity is the elasticity of demand at a finite point on a linear
demand curve, e.g., at point P or B on the demand curve MN (Fig. 4.10). This is
in contrast to the arc elasticity between point P and B. A movement form point
B to wards P implies change in price DP becoming smaller and smaller, such
that P is almost reached. Here the change in price is infinitesimally small.
Measuring elasticity for an infinitesimally small change in price is the same as
measuring elasticity at a point. The formula for measuring point elasticity is
given below.
Point elasticity (e) =
(4.9)
Note that has ------been substituted for ~ in the formula for arc elasticity. The derivative ~~
is reciprocal of the slope of the demand curve MN. Point elasticity is thus the
product of price-quantity ratio (at a particular point on the demand curve) and
reciprocal of the slope of the demand line. The reciprocal of the slope of the
straight line MN at point P is geometrically given by o~ so that 8Q QN e = PQ
Note that at point P, price P = PQ and Q = OQ. By Substituting these
values in Eq. (4.9), we get
PQ QN – QN
Ep OQ PQ OQ
Given the numerical value for QN and OQ elasticity at point P can be
easily obtained. We may compare here arc elasticity and point elasticity at point
j in Fig.4.9 At point j.
QN 108-43 e p = 1.51 OQ 43
Given that e = 1.51 is different from different measures of are elasticities
(i.e., 1.49, 0.43, 0.74, 0.81).
As we will see below, geometrical1y, QN/OQ = PN/PM. Therefore
elasticity of demand at point P (Fig. 4.10), may be
PN ep=PM
To conclude, the price elasticity of demand at any point on a linear
demand curve is equal to the ratio of lower segment to the upper segments of
the line i.e.
Lower segment
Upper segment
By this rule, at mid-point of a linear demand curve, ep = 1, as shown at
point P in Fig. 4.10. It follows that at any point to the left of point P, ep > 1, and
at any p point to the right of point P, ep < 1. According to the above formula, at
the extreme point N, ep = 0, and at extreme point M, ep is undefined because
division by zero is undefined. It must be noted here that these results are
relevant between points M and N and that the elasticities at the extreme points
M and N are, in effect, undefined.
Fig. 4.1 Point Elasticities of Demand
4.8.3 DETERMINANTS OF PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
We have noted above that price-elasticity of a product may vary between
zero and infinity. The price-elasticity of a product within this range depends on
the following factors.
1.
Availability of Substitutes. One of the most important determinants of
elasticity of demand for a commodity is the availability of its close substitutes.
The higher the degree of the closeness of the substitutes, the greater of elasticity
of demand for the commodity. For instance, coffee and tea may be considered
as close substitutes for each other. It price of one of these goods increases, the
other commodity-become relatively cheaper. Therefore, consumers buy more of
relatively cheaper goods, and less of the costlier one, all other things remaining
the same. The elasticity of demand for both these goods will be higher. Besides,
the wider the range of the substitutes, the greater the elasticity. For instance,
soaps, tooth pastes, cigarettes etc., are available in different brands, each brand
being a close substitute for the other. Therefore, the price-elasticity of demand
for each brand is much greater than the generic commodity. On the other hand,
sugar and salt do not have their close substitute and hence their price-elasticity
is lower.
2.
Nature of Commodity. The nature of a commodity also affects the
price-elasticity of its demand. Commodities can be grouped as luxuries,
comforts and necessities Demand for luxury goods (e.g., high-price
refrigerators, TV sets, cars, decoration .items, etc.) is more elastic than the
demand for necessities and comforts because consumption of luxury goods can
be dispensed with or postponed when their price rise. On the other hand,
consumption of necessary goods (e.g. m sugar, clothes, vegetables) cannot be
postponed, and hence their demand is inelastic. Comforts have more elastic
demand than necessities and less elastic than luxuries. Commodities are also
categorised as durable goods and perishable or nondurable goods. Demand for
durable goods is more elastic than that of non-durable goods, because when the
price of the former increases, people either get the old one repaired instead of
replacing it or buy a ‘secondhand’.
3.
Weightage in the Total Consumption. Another factor that influences
the elasticity of demand is the proportion of income which consumers spend on
a particular commodity. I proportion of income spent on a commodity is large,
its demand will be more elastic, and vice versa. Classic examples of such
‘commodities are salt, matches, books, pens, tooth pastes, etc. These goods
claim is very small proportion .of income. Demand for these goods is generally
inelastic because increase in the price of such goods does not substantially
affect consumer’s budget. Therefore, people continue to purchase almost the
same quantity when their prices Increase.
4.
Range of Commodity Use. The range of uses -of a commodity also
influences its demand. The wider the range of uses of a product, the higher the
elasticity of demand. As the price of a multi-use commodity decreases, people
extend their consumption to its other uses, Therefore, the demand for such a
commodity generally increases more than the proportionate increase in its price.
For instance, milk can be taken as it is and it may be converted into curd,
cheese, ghee and butter-milk. The demand for milk will therefore be highly
elastic. Similarly, electricity can be used for lighting, cooking, heating and for
industrial purpose. Therefore, demand for electricity has a greater elasticity.
5.
Proportion of Market Supplied. The elasticity of market demand
depends also on the proportion of the market supplied at the ruling price if less
than half of the market is supplied at the ruling price, price-elasticity of demand
will be higher than one and if more than half of the market is supplied e < 1.
That is, demand curve is more elastic over the upper half than over the lower
half.
4.8.4 CROSS-ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
The cross-elasticity is the measure of responsiveness of demand for a
commodity to the changes in the price of its substitutes and complementary
goods. For instance, cross-elasticity of demand for tea is the percentage change
in its quantity demanded with respect to the change in the price of its substitute,
coffee. Formula for measuring cross-elasticity of demand for tea (e.) and the
same for coffee (ec.j.) is given below :
Percentage change in demand for tea (Q)
The same formula is used to measure the cross-elasticity of demand for a
good in respect of the change in the price of its complementary goods.
Electricity to electrical gadgets, petrol to automobile, butter to bread, sugar and
milk to tea and coffee, are the examples of complementary goods.
It is important to note that when two goods are substitutes for another,
their, demand has positive cross-elasticity because increase in the price of one
increases the demand for the other. And, the demand for complementary goods
has negative cross-elasticity, for increase in the price of a good decrease the
demand for its, complementary goods.
Uses of Cross-Elasticity
An important use of cross-elasticity is that it is used to define substitute
goods. If cross-elasticity between tow goods is positive, the two goods may be
considered as substitutes of one anthor. Also, the greater the cross-elasticity, the
closer the substitute, Similarly, if cross-elasticity of demand for two related
goods is negative, ‘the two may be considered as complementary of one anthor:
the higher the negative cross-elasticity, the higher the degree of complementary.
The concept of cross-elasticity is of vital importance in changing price of
products, having substitutes and complementary goods. If cross-elasticity in
response to the price of substitutes is greater than one, it would be inadvisable
to increase the price; rather, reducing price may prove beneficial. In case of
complementary goods also, reducing price may be helpful in maintain the
demand in case the price of the complementary goods is rising.
4.8.5 INCOME-ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
A part from the price of a product and its substitutes, consumer’s income
is another basic determinant of demand for a product. As noted earlier, the
relationship between quantity demanded and income is of positive nature,
unlike the negative price-demand relationship. The demand for goods and
services increases with increase in consumer’s income and vice-versa. The
responsiveness of demand to the change in income is known as incomeelasticity of demand.
Income-elasticity of demand for a product, say X (i.e., e1) may be
defined as :
(where Xq = quantity of X demanded; I = disposable income; Dxq = change in
quantity of X demanded; and DI = change in income).
Obviously, the formula for measuring income-elasticity of demand is the
same as for measuring the price-elasticity. The only change in the formula is
that the variable ‘income’ (I) has been substituted for the variable price (P).
Here, income refers to the disposable income, i.e., income net of taxes. All
other formulae for measuring price-elasticity may be adopted to measure the
income-elasticity , keeping in mind the difference between them and the
purpose of measuring income-elasticity.
Unlike price-elasticity of demand, which is always negative’. Incomeelasticity of demand is always positive because of a positive relationship
between income and quantity demanded of a product. But there is an exception
to this rule income-elasticity of demand for inferior goods is negative, because
of inverse substitution effect. The demand for inferior goods decreases with
increase in consumer’s income and vise-versa. The reason is when income
increased, consumers switch over to he consumption of superior commodities,
i.e., they substitute superior goods for inferior ones. For instance, when income
rises, people prefer to buy more of rice and wheat and less of inferior food
grains; buy more of meat and less of potato, and travel more by plane and less
by train.
Nature of commodity and income - elasticity. For all normal goods, incomeelasticity is positive though the degree of elasticity varies in accordance with
the nature of commodities. Consumer goods of the three categories, viz.,
necessities, comforts, and luxuries have different elasticities. The general
pattern of income elasticities of different kind of goods of in income and their
effect on sales are given in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2 Income-Elasticities
1.
Consumer goods Co-efficient of income-elasticity
Effect on Sale
Essential goods
Less than
proportionate
Less than one (e1 < 1)
change in sale
2.
3.
Comforts
Luxuries
Almost equal to unity
Almost proportionate
(e1 @ 1)
change in sale
Greater than unity (e1 > 1)
More than
proportionate
increase in sale
1.
Except in case of Giffen’s goods.
2.
With an exception of inferior goods.
4.9
FURTHER READINGS
BILAS, RICHARD, A. Microeconomic Theory, McGraw Hll, New York, 1971.
DOUGLAS, EVANS J. Managerial Economic : Theory and Practice and
Problems, Prentice-Hall, inc. New Jersey.
FERGUSON, C. E., Microeconomics Theory, Richard D. Irwin, Howe Wood III.
LEFTWICH, RICHARD H., The price System and Resource Allocation, Dryden
Press, Hinsdale, III
MANSFIELD, EDWIN, Micro economics: Theory and Application, W. W. Norton,
New York.
NICHOLSON, WALTER, intermediate Microeconomics and Its Application, Dryden
Press, Hinsdale.
SPENCER, MILTON H., Managerial Economics, Richard D. Irwin, Homw-wood III.
WATSON, DONALDs, Price Theory and Its Uses, Houghton Miffin, Boston Price
Theory in Action Houghton Miffin, Boston.
WEBB, SAMUEL C., Managerial Economic, Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
4.10
IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
1.
What are the determinants of market demand for a commodity? How do the
changes in the following factors affect the demand for a commodity?
(a) Price,
substitute
(d) Advertisement and
(b)
Income,
(e)
Population.
(c)
Price of the
Also describe the nature of relationship between demand for a product and
these factor (consider one factor at a time assuming other factors to remain
constant.)
2.
Distinguish between : (i) demand function and demand schedule, (ii) individual
demand and market demand, (ii) demand for normal goods and inferior goods.
3.
Define and distinguish between :
(a)
Are elasticity and point elasticity.
(b)
Price elasticity and cross-elasticity, and
(c)
Income elasticity and price elasticity.
4.
What is meant by demand schedule, demand curve and demand function?
Show how market demand is calculated from individual curves.
5.
Which of the following commodities has the most inelastic demand and why?
(a)
(d)
6.
Soap
Cigarettes, and
(b)
(e)
Salt
Ice cream.
Explain the following concepts separately :
(i)
Income-elasticity of demand.
(c)
Penicillin
(ii)
Price-elasticity of supply.
(iii)
Elasticity of price expectations.
What useful information do these concepts of elasticity provide to
management?
7.
Given the demand function
Qd = 12 – p
(a)
find the demand and marginal revenue schedules,
(b)
plot the AR and MR Schedules,
(c)
find marginal revenue when P = 10, 6, 2 and
(d)
estimate the elasticity co-efficient of the demand curve, when the total
is at maximum
8.
What is the law of demand? Explain with the help of demand schedule and
demand curve what are the exceptions to this law?
9.
Why does a demand curve slope downward to the right? Can a demand curve
slope upward to the right under any condition?
Lesson : 5
DEMAND FORECASTING
(Author - Dr. B.S. Bodla)
Need of Demand Forecasting : Demand forecasting is predicting future demand for a
product. The information regarding future demand is essential for planning and
scheduling production, purchase of raw materials, acquisition of finance and
advertising. It is much more important where a large-scale production is being planned
and production involves a long gestation period. The information regarding future
demand is essential also for the existing firms for avoiding under or over-production.
Most firms are, in fact, very often confronted with the question as to what would be
the future demand for their product. For, they will have to acquire inputs and plan their
production accordingly. The firms are hence required to estimate the future demand
for their product. Otherwise, their functioning will be shrouded with uncertainty and
their objective may be defeated.
An important point of concern in all business activities is to assess the future
business trend whether it is going to be favourable or unfavorable. This assessment
helps the top management in taking appropriate policy decisions in advance. If sales
are expected to rise substantially after, say, 10 years, it will call for measures to build
adequate productive capacity well in advance so that future profit potential is not lost
to the rival producers. This essentially relates to long-term planning.
On the other hand, if sales of a product are expected to go up in the very near
future, it will be prudent on the part of the management to make the needed
adjustments in production schedule and take suitable steps immediately to ensure that
sufficient stocks are available with given plant capacity as soon as needed. This
involves short-term planning.
Irrespective of the length of future time period one is interested in, the planners
and policy makers need to know the possible future trends in relation to several
variables, which is made possible through forecasting. In this context, forecasting
provides knowledge about future trends and deals with the methods of acquiring this
knowledge.
Due to dynamic nature of market phenomenon demand forecasting has become
a continuous process and requires regular monitoring of the situation.
Demand forecasts are first approximations in production planning. These
provide foundations upon which plans may rest and adjustments may be made.
“Demand forecast is an estimate of sales in monetary or physical units for a specified
future period under a proposed business plan or program or under an assumed set of
economic and other environmental forces, planning premises outside the business
organisation for which the forecast or estimate is made”.
Sales forecast is an estimate based on some past information, the prevailing
situation and prospects of future. It is based on an effective system and is valid only
for some Specific period. The following are the main components of a sales
forecasting system :
(i)
Market Research Operations to get the relevant and reliable information about
the trends in market.
(ii)
A data processing and analysing system to estimate and evaluate the sales
performance in various markets.
(iii)
Proper co-ordination of steps (i) and (ii) and then to place the findings before
the top management for making final decision.
In this lesson, we will discuss the important methods of estimating and
forecasting demand. The techniques of forecasting are many, but the choice of a
suitable method is a matter of experience and expertise. To a large extent, it depends
also on the nature of the data available for the purpose. In economic forecasting,
classical methods use historical data in a rather rigorous statistical manner for making
the future projections. There are also less formal methods where analyst’s own
judgment plays a greater part in picking, choosing and interpreting the available data
than the statistical tools.
TECHNIQUES OF FORECASTING DEMAND
Survey Method : Survey method are generally used where purpose is to make shortrun forecast of demand. Under this method, surveys are conducted to collect
information about consumer’s intentions and their future purchase-plans. This method
includes :
(i)
survey of potential consumers to elicit information on their intentions and plan;
(ii)
opinion polling of experts, i.e., opinion survey of market experts and sales
representative, and through market studies and experiments.
The following techniques are used to conduct the survey of consumers and
experts.
Consumer Survey Methods :
The consumer survey method of demand forecasting involves direct interview
of the potential consumers. It may be in the form of:
·
complete enumeration, or
·
sample survey.
These consumer survey methods are used under different conditions and for
different purposes. Their advantages and disadvantages are described below.
Direct Interview Method :
The most direct and simple way of assessing future demand for a product is to
interview the potential consumers or users and to ask them what quantity of the
product they would be willing to buy at different prices over a given period say, one
year. This method is known as direct interview method. This method may, cover
almost all the potential consumers or only selected groups of consumers from different
cities or parts of the area of consumer concentration. When all the consumers are
interviewed, the method is known as complete enumeration survey method, and when
only a few selected representative consumers are interviewed, it is known as sample
survey method. In case of industrial inputs, interview of postal inquiry of only endusers of a conduct may be required. These are described as follows :
Complete Enumeration Method :
In this method, almost all potential users of the product are contacted and are
asked about their future plan of purchasing the product in question. The quantities
indicated by the consumers are added together to obtain the probable demand for the
product. For example, if only n out of m number of households in a city report the
quantity (d) they are willing to purchase of a commodity, then total probable demand
(D) may be calculated as
Dp = d1 + d2 + d3 + …. Dn
………….
(1)
where d1, d2, d3 etc. denote demand by the individual households 1, 2, 3 etc. This
method has certain limitations. It can be used successfully only in case of those
products whose consumers are concentrated in a certain region or locality. In case of a
widely dispersed market, this method may not be physically possible or may prove
very costly in terms of both money and time. Besides, the demand forecast through
this method may not be reliable for many reasons : (i) consumers themselves may not
be knowing their actual demand in future and hence may be unable or not willing to
answer the query; (ii) even if they answer, their answer to hypothetical questions may
be only hypothetical, not real; and (ii) their plans may change with the change in
factors not included in the questionnaire
Sample Survey Method :
Under this method, only a few potential consumers and users selected from the
relevant market through a sampling method are surveyed. Method of survey may be
direct interview or mailed questionnaire to the sample consumers. On the basis of the
information obtained, the probable demand may be estimated through the following
formula :
Dp -----were Dp = probable demand forecast; H = census number of households from the
relevant market; Hs = number of households surveyed or sample households; HR =
number of households reporting demand for the product; Ac = average expected
consumption by the reporting households (=total quantity reported to be consumed by
the reporting households ¸ number of households).
This method is simpler, less costly, and less time-consuming than the
comprehensive survey method. This method is generally used to estimate short-term
demand from business firms, government departments and agencies, and also by the
households who plan their future purchase.
Sample survey method is widely used to forecast demand. This method,
however, has some limitations. The forecaster therefore should not attribute reliability
to the forecast more than warranted. Besides, sample survey method can be used to
verify the demand forecast made by using quantitative or statistical methods. Although
some authors suggest that this method should be used to supplement the quantitative
method for forecasting rather than to replace it, this method can be gainfully used
where market area is localized.
Expert-Opinion Method :
It is one of the most widely used and influential forecasting technique where
the opinions and intuition of management is utilised. The process brings together in an
organised manner, personal judgments about the process being analysed Main reliance
is on human judgments.
In this method, the executive uses his own anticipation and what he hears from
others. Outside experts are also consulted and the other executive heads are also
required to give their opinion in the matter. Salesmen are to provide information about
customer’s attitude and preferences and the activities of competitors. Thus all possible
information from the opinions of various persons is combined together to change the
subjective opinions into quantitative forecasts.
No doubt experts and experienced managers can be useful as guides and serve
as reliable source of information, but one has to make his own decision from all the
opinions. Thus in this method broad guess is made by the executive in charge of a
business. There are many advantages and disadvantages of opinion technique of
forecasting :
Advantages :
(i)
Simple and easy to understand.
(ii)
No specialised skill is required.
(iii)
Low cost.
(iv)
It is based on the information or opinion of the persons who are directly
involved in the system.
(v)
It can be used in case of new products where satisfactory data is not available.
Disadvantages :
(i)
Opinions and intuitions are highly subjective.
(ii)
Personal estimates are likely to be biased.
(iii)
Time required to take the decision may be more.
(iv)
Results can be easily distorted.
(v)
This method is not useful for long term planning.
Delphi Method :
Delhpi method of demand forecasting is an extension of the simple expert
opinion poll method. This method is used to consolidate the divergent expert opinions
and to arrive at a compromise estimate of future demand. The Process is simple.
Under Delphi method, the experts are provided information on estimates of
forecasts of other experts along with the underlying assumptions. The experts may
revise estimates in the light of forecasts made by other experts. The consensus of
experts about the forecasts constitutes the final-forecast. It may be noted that the
empirical studies conducted in the USA have shown that unstructured opinions of the
experts is most widely uses technique of forecast. This may appear a bit, unusual in as
much as this gives the impression that sophisticated techniques, e.g., simultaneous
equations model and statistical methods, are not the techniques which are used most
often. However, the unstructed opinions of the experts may conceal the fact that
information used by experts in expressing their forecasts may be based on
sophisticated techniques. The Delphi technique can be used for cross-checking the
information on forecasts.
Market Studies and Experiments :
An alternative method of collecting necessary information regarding demand is
to carry out market studies and experiments in consumer’s behaviour under actual,
though controlled, market conditions. This method is known in common parlance as
market experiment method. Under this method, firms first select some areas of the
representative markets - three or four cities having similar features, viz., population,
income levels, cultural and social background, occupational distribution, choices and
preferences of consumers. Then, they carry out market experiments by changing
prices, advertisement expenditure, and other controllable variables in the demand
function under the assumption that other things remain the same. The controlled
variables may be changed over time either simultaneously in all the markets or in the
selected markets. After such changes are introduced in the market, the consequent
changes in the demand over a period of time (a week, a fortnight, or month) are
recorded. On the basis of data collected, elasticity coefficients are computed. These
coefficients are then used along, with the variables of demand function to assess the
demand for the product.
Alternatively, market experiments can be replaced by consumer clinic or
controlled laboratory experiment. Under this method, consumers are given some
money to buy in a stipulated store goods with varying prices, packages, displays, etc.
The experiment reveals the consumers responsiveness to the changes made in prices,
packages and displays, etc. Thus, the laboratory experiments also yield the same
information as the field market experiments. But the former has an advantage over the
latter because of greater control over extraneous factors and its somewhat lower cost.
Limitations : The market experiment methods have certain serious limitations and
disadvantages which reduce the reliability of the method considerably.
(i)
The experiment methods are very expensive. It cannot be afforded by small
firms.
(ii)
Being a costly affair, experiments are usually carried out on a scale too small
permit generalization with a high degree of reliability.
(iii)
These methods are based on short-term and controlled conditions which may
not exist in an uncontrolled market. Hence the results may not be applicable in
the uncontrollable long-term conditions of the market.
(iv)
The changes in socio-economic conditions taking place during the field
experiments, such as local strikes or lay-offs, advertising program by
competitors, political changes, natural calamities, may invalidate the results.
(v)
“Tinkering with price increases may cause a permanent loss of customers to
competitive brands that might have been tried”.
Despite these limitations, however, market experiment method is often used to
provide an alternative estimate of demand, and also “as a check on results obtained
from statistical studies.” Besides, this method generates elasticity coefficients which
are necessary for statistical analysis of demand relationships.
Statistical Methods :
Basically all statistical approaches of forecasting, project historical information
into the future. These are based on the assumption that future patterns tend to be
extensions of past ones and that one can make useful predictions by studying the past
behaviour i.e. the factors which were responsible in the past will also be operative to
the same extent in future.
Some companies have detailed sales record item wise as well as territory wise.
These sales record can be utilised to make useful predictions. The information should
be complete with respect to events, policies, quality of the product etc. from period to
period. Such information in general is known as Time series data. The time series for
any phenomenon is composed of three components (i) Trend (ii) Seasonal variation
and (iii) Random fluctuations. Trend exhibits the general tendency of the data and is
known as long period or secular trend. This can be either upward or downward,
depending on the behaviour.
Mostly trend is used for forecasting in practice. There are many methods to
determine trend. Some of the methods are :
(i)
Graphical method.
(ii)
Least square method.
(iii)
Moving average method.
(i)
Graphical Method : In this method the period is taken on X-axis and the
corresponding sales values on y-axis and the points are plotted for given data
on graph paper. Then a free hand curve passing through most of the plotted
points is drawn. This curve can be used to forecast the values for future. The
method is explained by the following example.
Example 1 : The demand for a product is continually diminishing. Estimate the
demand for 2004 with the help of following information:
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Demand (in
1000 units)
75
70
72
69
50
54
37
Solution : Plot a graph, for the given data to find the demand for 2004 (see fig. 1).
From the graph the demand for 1004 comes out to be approximately 20,000 units.
It is an approximate method as the shape of the curve mainly depends on the choice of
scale for the graph and the individual who draws the free hand curve.
Fig. 1
(ii)
Least Squares Method : This is one of the best method to determine trend. In
most cases, we try to fit a straight line to the given data. The line is known as ‘Line of
best fit’ as we try to minimise the sum of the squares of deviation between the
observed and the fitted values of the data. The basic assumption here is that the
relationship between the various factors remains unchanged in future period also.
Let Y denote the demand and X the period for a certain commodity. Then the
linear relationship between Y and X is given by
Y = a + bX ………………………………………
(3)
the nature of the relationship is determined by the values of a and b. The values of a
and b can be estimated with the help of the past information about Y and X. If x arid y
denote the deviations of X and Y from their respective means, then the least square
estimates of a and b are given by
a
b
where n is the number of observations. The calculation of Sy, Sxy and Sx2 can be
done with the help of given data on Y and X. The following example will help you in
understanding this method.
Example 2 : The sales of a product is given below :
Years
1992
Product
1,00,000
Sales (in Rs.)
1993
1994
1995
1,50,000
1,25,000
1,75,000
Fit a linear trend and forecast the sales for the year 1996.
Solution : Let years be denoted by X and product sales by Y. Then linear trend of year
X is given by
y = a + bX
The unknown constant ‘a’ and ‘b’ can be estimated by least square method. The
calculation can be done in the following tabular form.
Table 1
Year
X
x-1973.5
x=5
x2
Rs. ‘000
Y
Sales in
XY
1992
-3
9
100
-300
1993
-1
1
150
-150
1994
1
1
125
125
1995
‘3
9
175
525
n=4
Sx2 = 0
Sx2 = 20
SY = 550
SXY = 200
Now
a
I:XY
200,000
b = I:X2 =
20
= 10,000
Hence the linear trend is
Y = 1,37,500 + 10,000 (X-l~;3.5)
For X = 1996, forecast of Sales will be
Y = 1.37,500 + 10000 (1996-1993.5)
= 1,37,500 + 10,000 (5)
= 1,87,500
Advantages of least squares method :
(i)
There is no need to conduct any sample survey as only past information about
sales is required.
(ii)
Method is simple and easy to understand.
(iii)
Under normal situations the method is likely to give reliable and accurate
results.
Disadvantages of least squares method :
(i)
The method is based on some mathematical formulate which may not be
understood by common man.
(ii)
The assumption that other things remaining constant may not hold good in
practice.
Exponential trend :
When sales (or any dependent variable) have increased over the past years at
an increasing rate or at a constant percentage rate, then the appropriate trend equation
to be used is exponential trend equation of the following forms.
(1)
Double-log trend of the form
Y = aTb
…..(4)
or its double logarithmic form
lg Y = log a + b log T
This form of trend equation is used when growth rate is increasing.
(2)
Polynomial trend of the form
Y = a + bT + cT2
………… (5)
In these equations a, band c are constants, Y is sales, T is time and c = 2.718.
Once the parameters of the equations are estimated, it becomes quite easy to forecast
demand for the years to come.
The trend method is quite popular in business forecasting because of its
simplicity. It is simple because only time series data on sales are required. The analyst
is supposed to possess only working knowledge of statistics. Since data requirement of
this method is limited, it is also in expensive. Besides, trend method yield fairly
reliable estimates of future course of demand.
Limitations :
The trend method has, however, the following limitations.
The first limitation of this method arises out of its assumption that, the past
rate of change in the dependent variable will persist in future too. Therefore, the
forecast based on this method may be considered to be reliable only for the period
during which this assumption holds.
Second, this method cannot be used for shot-term estimates. It cannot be used
also where trend is cyclical with sharp, turning pints of troughs and peaks.
Thirdly, this method, unlike regression analysis, does not bring out the
measure of relationship between dependent variables. Hence, it does not yield the
necessary information (e.g., price and income elasticities) which can be used for future
policy formulations. The analyst should bear these limitations in mind while making
the use of this method.
(c)
Box-Jenkins Method
Box-Jenkins method of forecasting is used only for short term predictions.
Besides, this method is suitable for forecasting demand with only stationary timeseries sales data. Stationary time-series is one which does not reveal a long-term trend.
In other words, Box-Jenkins technique can be used only in those cases in which timeseries analysis depicts only monthly or seasonal variation or variations that recur with
some degree of regularity. When sales data of various commodities are plotted, many
commodities will show a seasonal or temporal variation in sales. For examples, sale of
woolen clothes will show a hump during months of winter in all the years under
reference. The sale of New Year Greeting Cards will be particularly very high in the
last week of December every year. Similarly sale of desert coolers is very high during
the summers each year. This is called seasonal variation. Box-Jenkins technique is
used for predicting demand where time series sales data reveal this kind of seasonal
variations.
According to Box-Jenkins approach, any stationary time-series data can be
analysed by the following three models :
(i)
auto regression model,
(ii)
moving average model, and
(iii)
auto regressive moving average model.
The three models are, in fact, the three stages of Box-Jenkins method. The auto
regressive-moving average model is the final form of the Box-Jenkins model. The
purpose of three models is to explain movements in the stationary series with
minimised error term, i.e., the unexplained components of stationary series.
The steps and models of Box-Jenkins approach are described briefly here with
the purpose of acquainting the reader with this approach rather than providing the
entire methodology.
Steps in Box-Jenkins Approach
As mentioned above, Box-Jenkins method can be applied to only stationary
time-series. Therefore, the first step in Box-Jenkins approach is to eliminate trend
from the time-series data: Trend is eliminated by taking first differences of time-series
data, i.e. subtracting observed value of one period from the observed value of the
proceeding year. After trend is eliminated, stationary time-series is created.
The second step in the Box-Jenkins approach is to check whether there is
seasonality in stationary time-series. If a certain pattern is found to repeat over time,
there is seasonality in stationary time-series.
The third step involves use of models to predict the sales in the intended
period. Let us now describe briefly the Box-Jenkins models which are used in the
same sequence.
(i)
Autoregressive Model
In a general auto regressive model, the behaviour of a variable in a period is
linked to the behaviour of the variable in future periods. The general form of the auto
regressive model is given below :
Yt = a1 Yt-1 + a2 Yt-2 + …. + an Yt-n + et ………… (6)
This model states that the value of Y in period t depends on the values of Y in
periods t-1, t-2, ... t-n. The term et is the random portion of Yt that is not explained by
the model. If estimated value of one or some of the coefficients a1, a2, …. An are
different from zero, it reveals seasonality in data. This completes the second step.
The model (6), however, does not specify the relationship between the value of
Y and residuals (et of previous periods. Box-Jenkins method uses moving average
method to specify the relationship between Yt and et values of residuals in previous
years. This makes the third step. Let us now look at the moving average model of
Box-Jenkins method.
(ii)
Moving Average Model
The moving average model estimated Yt in relation to residuals (et) of the
previous years. The general form of moving average model is given below :
Yt = m + b1 et-1 + b2 et-2 + .... + bp et-p + et ......... (7)
where m is mean of the stationary time series and et-1, et-2……, et-p are the residuals,
the random components of Y in t-1, t-2, …… t-p periods, respectively.
(c)
Method of Moving Averages : This method can be used to determine the
trend values for given data without going into complex mathematical calculations. The
cal1culations are based on some predetermined period in weeks, months, years, etc.
The period depends on the nature of characteristics in the time series and can be
determined by plotting the
observations on graph paper.
A moving average is an average of some fixed or pre-determined number of
observations (given by the period) which moves through the series by dropping of top
item of the previous averaged group and adding the next item below in each
successive average.
The calculation depends upon the period to be odd or even.
In the case of odd order period (3,5,7,……….) the average of the observations
is calculated for the given period and the calculated value is written in front of central
value of the period e.g. for a period of 5 years, the average of the values of five years
is calculated and is recorded against the third year. Thus in case of five yearly moving
averages, first two years and last two years of the data will not have any average
value.
If period of observations is even e.g. four years, then the average of the four
yearly observations is written between second and 3rd year values. After this centering
is done by finding the average of the paired values. The method is illustrated by
solving example 4.
The even order periods creates the problem of centering between the periods..
Due to this generally odd order periods are preferred.
The calculated values of the moving averages became the basis for determining
the expected future sales.
If the underlying demand pattern is stationary i.e. at a constant mean demand
level expect, of course, for the superimposed random fluctuations or noise, the moving
averages method provided a simple and good estimate. In this method equal weightage
is assigned to all the periods chosen for average.
The moving average method for forecasting suffers from the following defects:
(i)
records of the demand data have to be retained over a fairly long period.
(ii)
if demand series depicts trend as against the stationary level the moving
average method would provide forecasts that lags the original series.
Example 3 : The following are the annual sales in thousands of a product during the
period 1965-1975. Find the trend of the sales using (i) 3 yearly moving averages and
forecast the value for the year 1979.
Year
Sales in
000 units
Year
Sales in
000 units
Year
Sale in
000
1985
12
1989
18
1993
22
1986
15
1990
17
1994
25
1987
14
1991
19
1995
24
1988
16
1992
20
units
Solution : The trend values can be calculated in the following tabular form :
Table 12.2
Year
Sale in
000 units
Three yearly
moving toia1
3 yearly moving
average Trend
values
1985
12
1986
15
41
41/3 = 13.7
1987
14
45
45/3 = 45
1988
16
48
48/3 = 16
1989
18
51
51/3 = 17
1990
17
54
54/3 = 18
1991
19
56
18.7
1992
20
61
20.2
1993
22
67
22.3
1994
25
71
23.7
1995
24
e.g. 41 = value of 1985 + value of 1986 + 1987
= 12 + 15 + 14 = 41 written at the central period 1986 of the years 1985, 86 and 87
Business Indicators :
Business indicators refer to the time series data on important business and
economic activities in key sectors of the economy. These time series are
representative, in one way or the other, of the aggregate business and economic
activity in the economy as a whole. It is mote in the sense that the overall behaviour of
such aggregate activities has been found to be systematically associated with the
pattern of cyclical movements in the indicator series.
An intelligent analysis and understanding of the time duration and the
amplitude of cyclical ups and downs in the selected indicators provide useful
information regarding the future behaviour of overall cyclical movements. This holds
only long as these are specifically related to a particular business activity.
How correctly a business indicator will help predict the immediate future
conditions facing a particular business organisation depends to a large extent on the
judicious choice of an indicator in terms of its relevance to the type of business in
question. The selection of relevant business indicators is so import ant that a large
amount of statistical intelligence is required to go into its final choice before any
formal statistical technique is applied for purposes of analysis.
The U.S. National Bureau of economic Research, after having carefully studied
about 800 time series which could possibly be used as business indicators, have
selected around 20 time series; Such series individually follow definite pattern of
cyclical movements vis-à-vis those in the general business activity. The cyclical
movements in these selected series have been found to be systematically related to
successive cycles in the overall business activity in a definite way. While the turning
points in the case of a few precede the cyclical turning points in the general business
activity, those in some others coincide, and in yet some others follow, the turning
points in the latter.
The indicators that were found to precede the general business activity have
come to be known as leading series (or leading indicators). The leading indicators are
of crucial importance in, providing information about the upward and downward
movements, and the consequent peaks and troughs, in the general economic activity at
least a few months in advance. This happens because by virtue of their relationship
with the general economic activity, the cyclical movements in the leading series tend
to occur earlier than the beginning of the turning points to the overall business and
economic activity in the economy.
Business indicators that follow the movements in general business activity are
termed as lagging series, while those coinciding the movements in general business
activity are known as coincident series. The significance of both these series lies in
confirming that turning points in the general business activity have actually started
occurring. Thus, if the leading indicators have signaled an upward trend in the general
business activity, the coincident series will eventually start weakening. Such a
development calls for a careful observation of how all the three types of series are
likely to behave in the future.
Although the cyclical indicators approach has been found to be quite beneficial
in predicting the cyclical turning points. This does not necessarily indicate the
existence of any causal relationship between the two series.
Regression Method : Regression analysis is the most popular method of demand
estimation. This method combines economic theory and statistical techniques of
estimation. Economic theory is employed to specify the determinants of demand and
to determine the nature of relationship between the demand for a product and its
determinants. Economic theory thus helps in determining the general form of demand
function. Statistical techniques are employed to estimate the values of parameters in
the equation estimated.
In regression techniques of demand forecasting, the analysis estimate the
demand function for a product. In the demand function, quantity to be forecast is a
dependent variable and the variables that affect or determine the demand (the
dependent variable) are called as ‘independent’ or ‘explanatory’ variables. For
example, demand for cold drinks in a city may be said to depend largely on ‘per capita
income’ of the city and its population. Here demand for cold drinks is a ‘dependent
variable’ and ‘per capit income’ and ‘population’ are the ‘explanatory’ variables.
Simple Regression :
In simple regression technique, a single independent variable is used to
estimate a statistical value of the ‘dependent variable’, that is, the variable to be
forecast. The technique is similar to trend fitting. An important difference between the
two is that, in trend fitting, independent variable is ‘time’ (t) whereas in regression
equation, the chosen independent variable is the single most important determinant of
demand. Besides, the regression method is less mechanical than trend fitting method
of projection.
For an illustration, consider the hypothetical data on quarterly consumption of
sugar given in table
Table X : Quarterly Consumption of Sugar
Year
Population
(millions)
Sugar Consumed
(000) tonnes
1985-86
10
40
1986-87
12
50
1987 -88
15
60
1988-89
20
70
1989-90
25
80
1990-91
30
90
1991-92
40
100
Suppose we have to forecast demand for sugar for 1994-95 on the basis of 7year data given in Table. This can be done by estimating a regression equation of the
form
Y = a + bX
………….. (8)
Where Y is sugar consumed, X is population and a and b are constants
Like trend fitting method, Eq. 8 can be estimated by using the ‘least square’
method. The procedure is the same as shown in Table X That is the parameters a and b
can be estimated by solving the following two linear equations:
SY = na +bSX ………………………… (i)
SXY = Sxa + bSx2…………………….. (ii)
The procedure of calculating the terms in equations (i) and (ii) above is
presented in Table X.
Table X : Calculation of Terms in Linear Equations
Population
(X)
Sugar
consumed (Y)
X2
XY
1985-86
10
40
100
400
1986-87
12
50
144
600
1987-88
15
60
225
900
1988-89
20
70
400
1400
1989-90
25
80
625
2000
1990-91
30
90
900
2700
1991-92
49
100
1600
4000
Sn = 7
SXt = 152
SYt = 490
SX2t =3994
S XtYt = 12000
Year
By substituting the values from Table into equation (i) and (ii), we get
490
=
12,000 =
7a + 152 b
…….. (iii)
152 a + 3994 b
(iv)
By solving equations (iii) and (iv), we get
and
a
=
27.42
b
=
1.96
By substituting values for a and bin Eq. (8), we get the estimated regression
equation as
Y = 27.44 + 1.96 X
Given the regression equation (8), the demand for sugar for 1994-95 can be
easily projected if population for 1994-95 is known. Supposing population for 199495 is projected to be 70 million, the demand for sugar in 1994-95 may be estimated as
Y = 27.44 + 1.96 (70) = 164,640 tonnes
The simple regression technique is based on the assumption that (i)
independent variable will continue to grow at its past growth rate, and (ii) the
relationship between the dependent and independent variables will continue to remain
the same in future as in the past.
Multi-variate Regression :
The Multi-variate regression equation is used where demand for a commodity
is deemed to be the function of many variables or in cases in which number of
explanatory variables is greater than one.
The procedure of multiple regression analysis may be briefly described here.
The first step in multiple regression analysis is to specify the variables that are
supposed to explain the variations in the demand for the product under reference. The
explanatory variables are generally chosen from the determinants of demand, viz.,
price of the product, price of its substitute, consumers’ income, and their taste and
preference. For estimating the demand for durable consumer goods, (e.g., TV sets,
refrigerators, house, etc.), the other variables which are considered are availability of
credit and rate of interest. For estimating demand for capital goods (e.g., machinery
and equipments), the relevant variables are additional corporate investment, rate of
depreciation, cost of capital goods, cost of other inputs (e.g., labour and raw
materials), market rate of interest, etc. These variables are treated as independent
variables.
Once independent variables are specified, the second step is to collect time series data on the independent variables. After necessary data are collected, the next
step is to specify the form of equation which can appropriately describe the nature and
extent of relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The final step
is to estimate the parameters in the chosen equations with the help of statistical
techniques. The multivariate equations cannot be easily estimated manually. They
have to be computerised.
Diffusion Index :
Diffusion index as a technique of predicting turning points in the general
business activity is an improvement over the business indicator approach in so far as it
makes up the deficiency of the latter for lack of uniformity in the duration and
amplitude of cyclical fluctuations in the leading series. The computation of diffusion
index requires counting of the number of leading series and expressing them as a
percentage of the total number of series in the leading group.
For example, if there are 20 leading series in all, and if all of them are
expanding cyclically, the diffusion index is 100. If 5 series are declining cyclically, the
diffusion index is 75, which means that 15 series are still expanding.
The diffusion index is interpreted as follows :
(i)
So long as this index remains above 50 per cent, a decline in the index
indicates that the overall business activity is in a state of expansion. Once the index
reaches the 50 per cent mark, the overall business activity is considered to have
reached the peak of expansion.
(ii)
A decline in the index below 50 per cent is indicative of the process of
contraction having set in. As long as the index remains below the 50 per cent mark,
the overall business activity is in a state of contraction and eventually reaches the
trough. Revival starts only when it rises above the 50 per cent mark.
(iii)
The 50 per cent mark is also decisive in predicting the turning points in the
overall business activity. As the index tends to approach the 50 per cent mark from
above, it is indicative of the beginning of the upward trend in the overall business
activity.
Turning points in business cycles predicted in line with the trends in the
diffusion index are reliable only so long as all the series behaving in a particular
direction move cyclically more or less quite closely with one another, and that all the
series have equal importance with respect to the aggregate. In practice these conditions
are met fairly well.
However, the use of diffusion Index is not an easy task. It is mainly because
the construction of a diffusion index requires determining whether particular series is
cyclically expanding or contracting, which is an extremely difficult and laborious task.
References :
Ashton, David and Simister, Leslie (eds.), The Role of Forecasting in Corporate
Planning, Staples Press, London, 1970, Chs. 1-3, 8-9.
Douglas, Evan, J., Managerial Economics: Theory Practice and Problems, Prentice
Hall, Inc., N.J. 1970, Ch.5.
Hooda, R.P., Statistics for Business and Economics, McMillan India Ltd., 2000.
Wolfe, H.D., Business Forecasting Methods, Holt, Rinchart and Winston, Inc., 1966.
Reddy, Mehender, J., Demand Forecasting, Light and Life Publications, New Delhi.
1981.
Diwevedi, D.N., Managerial Economics, Vikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd., New
Delhi, 1999.
Questions :
1.
Discuss meaning and significance of Demand Forecasting.
2.
Discuss critically the different methods of demand forecasting.
3.
Outline the trend projection method of demand forecasting.
4.
What are the possible consequences if a large-scale firm places its project in
the market without having estimated the demand for its product?
5.
What would be the appropriate variables for estimating demand for (a) steel,
(b) sugar, (c) petrol, and (d) toys by the regression method?
6.
Plot the following data on a graph and find the trend equation for sales:
Year
1990
Total sales 115
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1976
102
305
300
95
306
403
(units)
7.
The following are the available data of sales for some years :
Years
1990
1991
1993
1994
Sales (in lakhs
of Rupees)
50
70
60
80
Assuming the same relationship holds true for future, forecast the sales for the
year 2002 by applying least square method.
Hint. To make SX = 0, time deviations from 1992 may be taken.
Ans. 115 in Lakhs of rupees.
8.
Explain the regression method of demand forecasting. Compare this method
with trend method.
9.
You are given the following data :
X
Y
3
8
6
6
8
10
10
12
13
12
13
14
13
14
14
20
Estimate the regression equation Y = a + bX
10.
What are the different techniques of survey method? Under what conditions
are complete enumeration and sample Survey methods are chosen ?
11.
What is Delphi method? What is the use of this method in demand forecasting?
12.
Explain Business indicator method of demand forecasting.
Lesson - 6
The Organization of Production and the Production Function
(Author : N.K. Bishnoi)
In this section we shall first examine the organization of production and classify inputs into various broad categories and then define the meaning and usefulness of
the production function in analyzing the firm’s production activity.
The Organization of Production :
Production refers to the transformation of inputs or resources into outputs of
goods and services. For example, if we want to produce wheat, we need land,
fertilizer, water, workers and some machinery. These are called inputs or factors of
production. The output is wheat. The output can also be service rather than a good.
Examples of services are education, medicine, banking, communication, transportation
and many others. To be noted is that “Production” refers to all of the activities
involved in the production of goods and services, from borrowing to setting up of
expansion of production facilities, to hiring workers, purchasing raw materials,
running quality control, and so on, rather than referring merely to the physical
transformation of inputs into outputs of goods and services. In a broader sense,
activities adding value to the product are part of the production process.
Inputs are the resources used in the production of goods and services. As a
convenient way to analysis, inputs are classified into labour, capital, land and
entrepreneur. Each of these broad categories, however, includes a great variety of
basic input. For example labour includes farmer, bus driver, assembly line worker,
accountants, lawyers, doctors, scientists and govt. officials. Capital consists of all the
man made resources helping in the production process. It includes machinery,
building, inventory and others. In the same manner land represent the natural
resources for which human being has done nothing to bring them about. It includes
land, natural resources, minerals, rivers, sunlight and even natural talent in a person.
As far as the entrepreneurship is concerned there is a controversy regarding its
classification. Some economists call entrepreneurship as a distinct factor of
production, which is ultimate risk taker in the production process, while other regard it
a distinct type of labour only.
Inputs are also classified as fixed or variable. Fixed inputs are those that cannot
be readily changed during the time period under consideration, except perhaps at very
great expense. Examples of fixed inputs are the firm’s plant and specialized
equipment; it takes several years to build a new thermal power plant. On the other
hand, variable inputs are those that can be varied easily and on a very short notice.
Examples of variable inputs are most raw materials and unskilled labour.
The time period during which at least one input is fixed is called the short run,
while the time period when all inputs are variable is called the long run. The length of
the long run (i.e. the time period required for all factors to be variable) depends on the
industry. For some, such as the setting up or expansion of dry-cleaning business, the
long run may be a few months or weeks. For others, such as construction of integrated
iron steel plant, it may be several years. In the short run, the firm can increase output
only by using more of the variable inputs (say labour and raw material) together with
the fixed inputs (plant and equipment) In the long run, the same increase in. output
could very likely be obtained more efficiently by also expanding the firm’s production
facilities.
The production Functions :
A production function is an equation, table or graph showing the maximum
output of a commodity that a firm can produce per period of time with each set of
inputs. Both inputs and outputs are generally measured in physical rather than in
monetary units. Technology is assumed to remain constant during the period of the
analysis.
The general equation of production function is
Q = f (a, b, c, d ……….. n, T )
Where Q represent the physical quantity of output per unit of time f, denotes
functional relationship.
a, b, c, d, represent the quantities of various inputs, per unit of time.
T refers to the prevailing state of technology or know how. The bar (-) is
placed on T Just to indicate that technology is assumed to be constant
The equation implies that the output or the quantity (Q) of the product depends
on the quantities, of a. b. c. d. n of the various inputs used with the given state of
technology in the production process per period of time.
For simplicity, economists assume that a firm produces only one type of output
with only two inputs, labour (L) [Entrepreneurship dubbed with labour] and capital
(K) [land being passive factor combined with capital]. Thus the simple production
function is
Q = f (L; K) ……………… 1
Table 1, gives a hypothetical production function, which shows the output (the
Qs) that a firm can produce with various combinations of labour (L) and Capital (K).
Table shows that by using 1 unit of labour (IL) and I unit of capital (IK) the firm
would produce 4 units of output (4Q).
With 2 Land IK, output is 10Q. With 3L and 4K the output is 38Q, and so on.
Note that labour and capital can be substituted for each other in production. For
example 32Q can be produced using 3L and 2K or with 2L and 4K. Input prices will
determine which of these combinations of labour and capital minimizes the firm’s
cost.
The production Function with variable input :
In this Section, we present the theory of production when only one input is
variable. Thus, we are in the short run. We begin by defining the total, the average and
the marginal product of the variable input. We will then examine the law of variable
proportion and the meaning and importance of the stages of production.
Total, Average and Marginal Product :
By holding the quantity of an input constant and changing the quantity used of
the other input, we can derive the total product (TP) of the variable input. For example
by holding capital constant at 1 unit (i.e. with K = 1) and increasing the units of labour
used from zero to six units, we generate the total product of labour given in the tales 2
column (2). Note that when no labour is used, total product or output is zero. When
one unit of labour (IL) is used, total product (TP) is 4. With 2L, TP= 10 with 3L,
TP = 15 and so on.
Table 2
Total, Marginal, and Average Product of labour;
Labour
No. of workers
K=1
output or
Marginal Product Average Product
Total Product TP of Labour (MP)
of Labour(AP)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
0
0
-
-
1
4
4
4
2
10
6
5
3
15
5
5
4
18
3
4.5
5
18
0
3.6
6
15
-3
2.5
From the total product schedule we can derive the marginal and average product schedules of the variable inputs. The Marginal Product of labour (MP L) is the
change in total product per unit of change in 1abour used, while the average product of
labour (AP L) equals total product divided by the quantity of labour used. That is
MPL = + TP / + L ------------------- 2
APL= TP/L ------------- 3
Column 3 in the table 2 gives the marginal product of labour (MPL). Since
labour increases by 1 unit at a time in column, the MPL in column 3 is obtained by
subtracting successive quantities of TP in column 2. For example TP increases from 0
to 4 units when the first unit of labour is used. Thus MPL = 4. For an increase in
labour from 1L to 2L, TP rises from 4 to 10, So that MPL = 5 and so on.
Column 4 of table 2 gives the APL. This equal TP (Column 2) divided by L
(Column 1). Thus with 1 unit of labour 1L, APL = 4, with 2L, APL = 5 and so on.
Plotting the total, marginal and average product of labour of table 2 gives the
corresponding product curves shown in figure-(I). Note that TP grows to 18 units with
4L, remains at 18 with 5 L, and then declines to 15 units with 6L.
In figure (2), we see that APL rises to 5 units and than declines. Since the
marginal product of labour refers to the change in total product, per unit change in
labour used, each value of the MPL is plotted half way between the quantities of
labour used.
Fig. 2
The law of variable proportion and stages of production :
In order to show graphically the relationship between the total product, on the
one hand and the marginal and average products of labour, on the other hand, we
assume that labour time is continuously divisible (i.e. it can be hired for any part of the
day). Then the TP, MPL and APL become smooth curves as indicated in figure (3).
The MPL at a particular point on the TP curve at that point. From the figure3,
we see that the slope of the TP rises up to point G (the point of injection on the TP
curve), is zero at point J and negative there after. Thus, MPL rises up to point G, is
zero at point J, and negative thereafter.
On the other hand, APL is given by the slope of a ray from the point of origin
to the TP curve. From Figure-3, we see that the slope of the TP curve rises upto point
H and falls thereafter but remain positive as long as TP is positive. In same manner,
the APL rises upto point H and falls after wards.
The point to note here is that at point H the slope of a ray from the origin to the
TP curves (or APL) is equal to the slope of the TP curve (or MPL). Thus APL = MPL at
point H (The highest point on the APL curve). Note APL rises as long as MPL is above
it and falls when MPL is below it.
The relationship between the MPL and APL curves in the bottom panel of
figure-3 can be used to define three stages of production for labour (variable input).
The range from the origin to the point where APL is maximum (Point H at 2.5L) is
stage I of production for labour. Stage II of production for labour extends from the
point where the APL is maximum (MPL is equal to APL) at the point to the point where
the MPL is zero. (i.e. from Point H to Point J at 4.5L). The range over which the MP L
is negative (beyond point J or with more than 4.5L) is stage III of production for
labour.
The rational producer would not operate in stage III even if labour is available
at free of cost, because MP L is negative. This means that using less labour could
produce a greater output similarly one Would, not produce in stage I for labour
because in this stage Marginal product for labour is negative. As in relation to labour,
capital is available much more than required. Obviously by adding more labour output
would go up more than proportionately. Thus a rational producer will operate in stage
II where the MP of both the factors is positive but declining. The precise point within
stage II at which rational producer operates will depend on the prices of inputs and
outputs.
Explanation of the Stages :
The operation of the law of variable proportion in three stages is attributed to
two fundamental characteristics of factors of production.
i.
Indivisibility of certain fixed factors, and
ii.
Imperfect substitutability between factors.
Indivisibility of fixed factors implies that initially when smaller quantities of
variable factor inputs are employed alongwith a given set of factors, there is a bit of
disproportionality between the two sets of factor components. On technical grounds,
thus, fixed factors are not effectively exploited. For instance, a factor like machinery,
being lumpy, may remain grossly underutilized when only very few units of variable
factor like labour are used. But this is not the whole explanation behind the variable
behaviour of the production function. Remaining part of explanation is provided by
the notion of substitutability between factors of production. Substitutability means the
extent to which one factor can perform the task of other factor. For example food grain
production can be increased by using more dosage of fertilizer or more number of
workers for better upkeep of the farm. Output would increase in both the cases. But
only to a limited extent same is the case with man and machinery. Hence the law of
variable proportion.
Assumption’s of the Law of variable proportion :
1.
Only one factor is varied.
2.
The scale of output is unchanged.
3.
Technique of production does not change.
4.
Units of factor input varied are homogeneous.
Significance of the Law :
The business significance of the law of variable proportion is obvious. A
careful producer would not produce in stage I and III. Rationally, the ideal
combination off actor proportion (fixed plus variable inputs) will be when the average
product of labour is maximum.
Moreover universal occurrence of the low has forced the business to go all out
for invention of new technology so as to fend off the operation of the law of variable
proportion.
Suggested Questions :
1.
What is meant fixed inputs, variable inputs, short run, and long run inputs?
2.
How long is the time period of the long run inputs?
3.
What is production function? What is its usefulness in the analysis of the
firm’s production?
4.
What is the relationship between the marginal product and the average product
curves of the variable inputs?
5.
Explain the law of variable proportion. Under what conditions the stage of
diminishing return can be postponed?
6.
If the total product curve increase at a decreasing rate from the very beginning
(Le. from the point where variable input is zero), what would be the shape of
the corresponding marginal and average product curves?
Lesson - 7
Concept of Cost : Short Run and Long Run Cost curves
(Author: N.K. Bishnoi)
This chapter begins by examining the nature of costs of production. These
include explicit and implicit costs, opportunity costs and incremental costs. Then the
firms short run and long run cost curves total, average and marginal cost curves are
derived. Subsequently plant size and economies of scale are examined, that is long run
cost curves.
The Nature of Costs :
One crucial distinction in the analysis of costs is between explicit and implicit
costs. Explicit Costs refer to the actual expenditures of the firm to hire, rent or
purchase the input it requires in production. These include the wages to hire labour,
the rental price of capital, equipment and buildings and the purchase prices of raw
materials and semi finished products. These are the recorded expenditure during the
process of production. They are thus also known as accounting cost or money cost, as
these are actual monetary expenditures incurred by the firm.
An economist however is not satisfied with these explicit costs only. In the
economic sense there are certain costs which are implicit in nature. This refers to the
value of the inputs owned and used by the firm in its own production activity. Even
though the firm does not incur any actual expenditure to use these inputs, they are not
free since firm can sell them or rent them out to other firms. The amount for which the
firm could sell or rent out these owned inputs to other firms represents a cost of
production of the firms owning and using them. Implicit costs include the highest
salary that the entrepreneur can earn for him, if working for other firms and thehighest return the firm could receive from investing its capital in alternatives uses or
renting its land and buildings to the highest bidder rather than using them itself. In
general, following are the implicit costs, which should be included in the total cost, but
go unrecorded in the account of the firm.
1.
Wages of labour rendered by the entrepreneur himself.
2.
Interest on capital supplied by the entrepreneurs.
3.
Rent of land and premises belonging to the entrepreneurs and used in
the production.
4.
Normal profit of entrepreneur, compensation for being the ultimate risk
taker in the firm.
These items are valued at current market rates for estimating the implicit cost.
The distinction between explicit and implicit costs is important in analyzing the
concept of profit. In the accounting sense, profit is calculated as the residual of total
sales receipts minus explicit costs. In economic sense, however normal profit is
included in total cost of production, which consists of explicit and implicit costs taken
together.
Economic Cost = Accounting cost (Explicit Costs) + Implicit Cost.
Opportunity Cost : To calculate the market value of implicit cost the concept
of opportunity cost is used. Now we elaborate the concept. The opportunity cost of a
factor of production is the reward (or value) that factor could have earned in the next
best alternative occupation. In fact, a cost is a forgone opportunity; the cost of
engaging in an activity is the totality of all the opportunities that the activity requires
you to forgo. To avoid double counting only the best alternative is considered as
opportunity cost.
Accounting opportunity costs are important for financial reporting by the firm
and for tax purposes. For managerial decision making purposes (with which we are
primarily interested in economics) opportunity or economic costs is relevant cost
concept.
With an example of inventory valuation will clarify the distinction.
Suppose, a firm purchased a raw material for Rs.100/- but its price
subsequently rose to Rs.150/-. The accountant would continue to report the cost of the
raw material at its original price of Rs.100/-. The economist however, would value the
raw material at its current or replacement value. Failure to do so might lead to the
wrong managerial decision. This would occur, if the firm decides to continue the
production using the raw material, while more beneficial out come would have been to
stop output and sell the raw material booking the profit at price Rs.150/-
In the same manner after depreciation accountant could take the value of a
machine at zero but economist would have to take its resale value to calculate the true
worth.
In discussing production cost, we must also distinguish between marginal cost
and incremental cost. Marginal cost refers to the change in total cost for a unit change
in output. For example, it total cost is Rs.140/- to produce 10 units of output and
Rs.1501- to product II units of output, the marginal cost of 11th. Unit is Rs.10.
Incremental cost on the other hand is a broader concept and refers to the change in
total cost from implementing a particular management decision, such as the
introduction of a new product line, the undertaking of a new advertising campaign or
the production of a previously purchased components. The costs that are not effected
by the decision are irrelevant and are called sunk cost. In other words, sunk costs are
not altered by the change in business activity.
Short Run and Long Run Costs :
Economist usually distinguish between short run and long run costs on the
basis of functional or operational time period in production activity.
The short run costs are operating costs associated with the change in output. In
the short run, the production function contains a set of fixed factor input and a set of
variable inputs. Short run costs vary in relation to the variation in the variable input
component only.
The long run costs are the operating costs associated with the changing scale of
output and the alteration in the size of plant. In the long run production function all the
factor inputs are variable. Their costs are the long run costs.
Behaviour of Costs in the Short-run :
In this section we distinguish between fixed and variable costs and derive the
firm’s total and per unit cost functions.
Short Run Total and Per-unit Cost function :
As already defined short-run is the time period during which some of the
firm’s inputs are fixed (i.e. cannot be readily changed, except perhaps at very great
expense). The total obligations of the firm per time period for all fixed inputs are
called total fixed deposits (TFC). These include interest payment, rental expenditures,
property taxes and those salaries (such as for top management) that are fixed by
contract and must be paid over the life of the contract whether the firm produces or
not.
Total variable costs TYC) : ON the other hand, are the total obligations of the firm
per time period for all the variable inputs that the firm use. Variable inputs are those
that the firm can change easily and on short notice. Payment for raw materials,
depreciation associated with the use of the plant and equipment; most of the labour
costs, excise duties are included invariable costs.
Total costs (TC) equal total fixed costs (TFC) plus total variable costs (TVC).
That is TC = TFC + TYC.
Within the limits imposed by the given plant and equipment, the firm can vary
its out-put in the short run by varying the quantity used of the variable inputs. This
gives rise to the TFC, TYC and TC functions of the firm. In defining cost functions,
all inputs are valued at their opportunity cost which includes both explicit and implicit
cost. Input prices are assumed to remain constant regardless of the quantity demanded
of each input by the firm.
From the total fixed, total variable and total cost function, we can derive the
corresponding per unit cost function of the firm. Average fixed cost (AFC) equals total
fixed costs (TFC) divided by the level of output (Q). Average variable cost (A YC)
equals total variable costs (TVC) divided by output. Average total cost (ATC) equal
total cost (TC) divided by output. Finally marginal cost (MC) is the change in total
costs or change in total variable cost (TVC) per unit change in output.
AFC
TFC/Q
AYC
TVC/Q
TC
TC/Q = AFC +AVC
MC
DTC / DQ = DTVC / DQ
Table 1
1
2
3
Q
TFC
0
100
4
5
6
TVC TC
AFC
AVC ATC
M
0
-
-
-
100
7
-
8
1
100
25
125
100
125
125
25
2
100
40
140
50
20
70
15
3
100
50
150
33.3
16.6
50
10
4
106
60
160
25
15
40
10
5
100
80
180
20
16
36
20
6
100
110
210
16.7
18.3
35
30
7
100
150
250
14.3
21.4
35.7
40
8
100
300
400
12.5
37.5
50
150
9
100
500
600
11.1
55.6
66.7
200
10
100
900
1000
10.0
90
100
400
Table (1) gives a hypothetical cost function
Behaviour of total Costs :
Examination of the table (1) gives us following observations regarding the total
costs.
1.
TFC remain constant at all level of output it is unchanged even when
the output is nil. Thus TFC is independent of output.
2.
TVC varies with the output. it is nil when there is no output. Variable
costs are thus direct costs of the output
3
TVC does not change in the same proportion. Initially it is increasing at
a decreasing rate, but after a point it increases at an increasing rate.
This is due of the law of variable proportion.
4.
TC varies in the same proportion as the TVC. In other words, the
change
in total cost is entirely, due to changes in the total variable costs. In fact
the distance between TC and TVC is the TFC.
Fig-I
TFG, TVC and TC Curves
Total cost curves are derived by plotting the total cost schedule graphically. A
careful observation of fig. 1 reveals the following important characteristics of cost
behaviour.
1.
The curve TFC is the curve of total fixed costs. Denoting constant
characteristics of fixed cost at all level of output, TFC is a straight
horizontal line, parallel to the X-axis.
2.
The curve TVC represent total variable cost. It reflect the typical
behaviour of total variable cost. It initially rises gradually but
eventually becomes steeper, denoting a sharp rise in total variable
costs.
3.
The TC curve represents total cost. It is derived by vertically adding up
TVC and TFC curves. Obviously shape of the TVC and TC are
identical. The only difference between two is of distance that is total
fixed cost.
Short-run per Unit Cost :
From the cost schedule given in table 1, it is clear that costs per unit are
derived from the total costs. It is obvious that the firm will have four short period
categories of unit costs (I) Average fixed Cost (AFC) (II) Average Variable Cost (A
VC) (III) Average Total Cost (A TC) and (IV) Marginal Cost (MC).
Economists, generalize the following relationship with regard to the unit cost
data.
1.
AFC decreases as output increases. Since AFC = TFC/Q, it is purely a
mathematical outcome that with numerator remaining unchanged, the
increasing denominator causes a diminishing product:
2.
AVC first decreases and them increase as the output increases.
3.
Since ATC is the sum of AFC and AVC, it will decrease in the beginning as
both component decreases initially. After a point AVC start increasing and
pulls up the ATC along with it, out weighing the influence of ever decreasing
AFC.
4.
Marginal Cost also decreases initially but increases ultimately with the
increase in output.
Marginal cost is the rate of change in total costs when output is increased by
one unit. In a geometrical sense, marginal cost at any output is the slope of the total
cost curve at the corresponding point. In the short run, the marginal cost is
independent of fixed cost and is directly related to the variable cost. Hence the MC
curve can also be derived from TVC curve. As a matter of fact, AVC curve and MC
curve are the reflection and the consequence of the law of variable proportion
operating in the short run. As shown in the fig-2 both the curves are U shaped, the
explanation of which is as follows. With labour as the only variable input, TVC for
any output level (Q) equals the wage rate (W, assumed to be fixed) times the quantity
of labour (L) used. Thus
AVC = TVC/Q = W.L./Q. W/Q/L
(Q/L = APL) W/APL
As explained in the previous chapter, Average product of labour usually rises
first, reaches the maximum and then falls, it follows that AVC curve first falls, reaches
a minimum and then rises. Thus AVC is exactly inverse of APL curve whereas MC
curve is exactly the reverse of, MP curve. In the last since the C curve is U shaped, the
ATC curve is also U shaped. The ATC curve continues to fall after the A VC curve
begins to be as long as the decline in AFC exceeds the rise in AVC.
The U shape of MC curve can similarly be explained as follows:
MC = DTVC / AQ = - D (WL) / AQ
Since W is constant
W(DL) / DQ = W/DQ/DL
As DQ/DL = MPL
= W/MPL
Since the Marginal product of labour (MPL) first rises, reaches a maximum
and then falls, it follows that the MC curve first falls reaches a minimum and then
rises. Obviously, MC curve is exactly the reverse of MPL curve.
Fig. 2
Relationship between Marginal Cost and Average Cost :
There is a unique relationship between AC (ATC as well AVC) and MC, that
is described as below :
1.
When AC is minimum, MC is equal to AC. Thus MC intersect AC at its lowest
point.
2.
When AC is falling, MC is always below AC. In fact, it is the MC that pulls
down AC along with its. The point to note here is that MC may be rising, but
will remain below AC.
3.
When AC is rising, MC must be above AC.
Long Run Cost Curves :
We now turn to explain the cost curves in the long run. Long run is the period
during which all inputs are variable. Thus all costs are variable in the long run (i.e. the
firm faces no fixed costs). The length of time of the long run depends on the industry.
In some service industries such as photocopying, the period of the long run may be
only a few months or weeks. For others, which are very capital intensive, like satellite
based commination network, it may take several years. It all depends on the length of
time required for the firm to be able to vary all inputs. The Long run cost of
production is the least possible cost of Production of producing any given level of
output when all the inputs one variable including of course the size of the plant. A
long run cost curve depicts the functional relationship between output and the long run
cost of production as just defined.
Long run average cost is the long run total cost divided by the level of output.
Long run average cost depicts the least possible average cost for producing all possible
level of output. In order to understand, how the long run average cost curve is derived,
consider the three short run average cost curve as shown in figure-3.
These short run average cost curves are also called plant curves, since in the
short run plant is fixed and each of the short run average cost curves corresponds to a
particular plant. In the short run the firm can be operating on any short run average
cost curve, given the size of the plant? Suppose that only these three are technically
possible sizes of the plants. In the long run the firm will examine that which size of the
plant or on which short run average cost curve it should operate to produce a given
level of output at the minimum possible cost.
It can be seen from fig. 3 that upto OB amount of output, the firm will operate
on the short run average cost curve SAC1, though it could also produce with short-run
average cost curve SAC2 ‘because upto OB amount of output, production on SAC1
curve entails lower cost than on SAC2. For instance, if the level of output OA is
produced with SAC1, it will cost AL per unit and if it is produced with SAC2, it will
cost AH per unit. Obviously AL is lower than AH. Similarly all other output levels
upto OB can be produced more economically with the smaller plant SAC1, than with
the larger plant SAC2. It is thus clear that in the long run firm will produce any output
upto OB on SAC. If the firm plan to produce any output which is larger than OB but
less the OD, then it will not be economical to produce on SAC1 For the output range
between OB to OD, SAC2 provides cheaper option. Thus the output OC if produced
on SAC2 costs CK per unit which is lower than CJ which is the cost incurred if
produced on SAC1. Therefore, if the firm plans to produce between OB and OD, it
will employ the plant corresponding to short run average cost curve SAC2. In the same
manner, for output larger than OD, economically, SAC3 provides the best possible
alternative. Given that only three sizes of plants as shown in figure-3, then the long
run average cost curve are having scallops on it. This heavily scalloped long run
average cost curve consists of some segments of all the short run average cost curves
as explained above.
Suppose now that the size .of the plant can be varied by infinitely small
gradations so that there are infinite number of plants corresponding to which there will
be numerous short run average cost curves. In that case, the long run average cost
curve will be smooth and continuous line without any scallops. Such smooth long run
average cost curve has been shown in fig. 4 and has been labeled as LAC. There will
be infinite number of short-run cost curves though only, eight SACS are shown in the
fig. 4. In fact the long run average cost curve is locus of all tangency points with some
short run average cost curves. If a firm decides to produce particular output in the long
run it will pick a point on the long run average cost curve corresponding to that output
and it will than build relevant plant and operate on the corresponding short-run
average cost curve.
Fig. 4
In fact the long run average cost curve is locus of all tangency points with
some short run average cost curves. If a firm desides to produce particular output int
he long run it will pick a point on the long run average cost curve corresponding to
that output and it will than build relevant plant and operate ont he coff esponding
short-run average cost curve.
It can be seen from the fig. 4 that the long run average cost curve first falls and
then beyond a point it rises, that is, the long run average cost curve is U shaped,
though U shape of long run average cost curve is less pronounced. In other words long
run average cost is flatter in comparison to short run average cost curve.
Long-Run Marginal-Cost Curve (LMQ) :
Like the short run marginal cost curve, the long run marginal cost curve is also
derived from the slope of total cost curve at the various points relating to the given
output each time. The shape of LMC curve has also a flatter U shape indicating that
initially as output expands in the long run, LMC tend to decline. At a certain stage
however, LMC, tends to increase. The behaviour of LMC is shows in fig. 5.
Fig. 5
From the fig. 5, the relationship between LAC and LMC may be traced as
follows:1.
When LAC is decreasing, LMC is below LAC.
2.
LMC is equal to LAC, when LAC is at its minimum point.
3.
LMC is above LAC, when LAC is rising.
Explanation of the U shape of the Long-run average Cost curve :
The economists generally believe that the LAC is U shaped. Now what is the
proper explanation for such behaviour of the LRAC?
We have seen that U shape of SAC curve is explained with the law of variable
proportions. But the LAC depends upon the returns to scale. And return to scale in
turn depends on the internal economies of scale. In other words our problem is what
are the reasons that the firms first enjoy internal economies of scale and then beyond a
point it has to suffer internal diseconomies of scale.
We will first, discuss in detail the nature of the internal economies of scale,
that is, economies, which arise from the firm increasing its plant size. Economies of
scale are distinguished into real economies and strictly pecuniary economies of scale.
Pecuniary economies are economies realized from paying lower prices for the
factors used in the production and distribution of the product due to bulk-buying by
the firm as its size increases. Such strictly monetal-N, economies do not imply an
actual decrease in the quantity of inputs used but accrue to the firm from lower prices
paid for raw material, low interest rates, lower wages and salaries due to firm’s better
bargaining power. These are called pecuniary because they accrue to the firm at the
cost of counter party without increasing the economic efficiency.
Real economies are those associated with a reduction in the physical quantity
of inputs, raw material, various types of labour and various types of capital, We may
distinguish the following main types of real economies (i) Production economies (ii)
Selling or marketing economies (iii) Managerial economies (iv) Transport and Storage
economies.
Production Economies of Scale :
Production economies may arise from labour, capital (technical) and inventory
requirement of the firm.
Labour economies are achieved as the scale of output increases for several
reasons:
(a)
Better specialization become possible with higher level of output.
(b)
Higher level of output allows the use of more efficient automated
machines.
(c)
Division of labour, those increases with the increase in output, results
in saving of time usually lost in going from one work to another.
Technical economies are associated with the’ fixed capital’, which includes all
types of machinery and other equipment. These main technical economies arises from
(a) more specialized and efficient machines are available generally for larger output
level.
(b)
Set up costs are normally a fixed amount, obviously larger the size of
machine lower the set up cost in proportion to total cost of capital.
(c)
Generally, as size is increased, machine cost does not go up
proportionally. In fact -in engineering there, is a rule of thumb of 0.6. It
means if size is increased by 100 percent, cost will go up by 60% only.
Inventory economies occur when with the increase in the level of output;
requirement for reserve inventory does not increase proportionately.
Selling or Marketing economies :
Selling economies are associated with the distribution of the product of a firm.
The main types of such economies are ( a) advertising economies (b) economies from
special arrangement with exclusive dealers ( c) model change economies.
Advertising Economies : It is generally agreed that advertising space (in
newspapers or magazines) and time (on television or Radio) increase less than
proportionately with scale, so that advertising cost per unit of output fall with scale.
The advertising budget is usually decided on the basis of available-funds, profits and
similar activities of competitors rather than on the basis of output. Obviously
advertising budget is almost like a fixed cost, hence the larger the output the smaller
the advertising cost per unit.
Special arrangement Economies : Large firms can enter into exclusive
agreements with distributors to provide after sales services for the, products of the
firm, reducing the need for the firm to have massive arrangement for the purpose.
Model Change Economies : In modem industry, firms need to change the style
of their product quite frequently in order to meet the demand of their customers and
the competition of the rival firms. A change in the model or style of the product often
involves considerable expenses in research and development and possibly on new
material and equipment the spreading of such overheads is lower per unit if the scale
of output is large.
Manaiterial Economies : Managerial economies arise for various reasons, the
most important being (i) specialization of management and (ii) mechanization of
managerial functions.
Specialized managerial economies occur when large scale operation make it
feasible for the firm to employ production manager, sales manager, personnel
manager, finance manager and so on. This division of managerial work increases the
experience of managers in their own areas of Specialization and leads to the, more
efficient working of the firm.
Mechanization economies : Large firms apply techniques of management
involving a high decree of mechanization such as computerized managerial
information system reducing the cost of information flow substantially.
Transport and Storage economies :
Transport costs are incurred partly on the production side (transportation of
raw materials or intermediate products) and partly on the selling side of the firm
(transportation of final product to its market). The same holds for storage costs.
Storage economies : Storage costs will clearly fall with size Geometry tells
us that volume increases more than proportionately with the increase of surface
area. Similarly maintenance, supervision cost of storage will not increase proportionately with the increase in output.
Analysis of transport cost is more complicated still higher output provides
more flexible transport planning of goods giving rise to economies of scale.
Thus, economies of scale are the reason behind the falling portion of the LAC.
But what causes it to go up beyond a point? It is the diseconomies of scale.
Diseconomies of scale arises primarily because as the scale of operation
increases, it becomes more difficult to manage the firm effectively and coordinate the
various operations and divisions of the firm. The number of meeting, the paper work
and telephone bills increases more than proportionately to the increase in the scale of
operation and it becomes increasingly difficult for top management to ensure that their
subordinates properly carry out their directives and guidelines. Thus, efficiency
decreases and cost per unit tend to rise.
In the real world, the forces for increasing and decreasing economies of scale
operate side by side. In the beginning economies outweigh diseconomies, while
beyond a point diseconomies becomes more powerful minimum point LAC is
achieved when economies and diseconomies balance each other completely.
Model Ouestioris
1.
2.
Distinguish between i)
Marginal and Incremental Cost
ii)
Accounting Cost and Economic Cost.
iii)
Explicit cost and implicit cost.
iv)
Outlay Cost and opportunity cost.
(i) What is meant by opportunity-cost?
(ii) What is its significance in managerial decision making?
3.
Why is short run cost curves U shaped?
4.
Why long run average cost curve is flatter than the S.R.A.C. ?
5.
Explain the various economies of scale.
Lesson - 8
Concept of Revenue; and Break Even Analysis
Section A – Concept of Revenue
(Author : N.K. Bishnoi)
Introduction :
The revenue of a film together with its cost determines the profits. We
therefore, turn to the study of the concept of revenue. Revenue means sales receipts. It
is the receipts obtained by action from selling various quantities of its products
Revenue depends on the price at which the quantities of output are sold by firm.
A firm’s revenue may be classified as: (i) Total Revenue (ii) Average Revenue
(iii) Marginal revenue.
Total Revenue (TR) :
Total revenue is the total sales receipt of the output sold over a given period of
time. Total revenue depends on two- factor (i) Price of the product and (ii) the quantity
of the product. It is obtained by multiplying the quantity sold (Q) by its selling price
(P) per unit. In symbolic terms TR = P × Q.
For example, if the selling price of a pen is Rs.20 per pen and 80 pens are sold
during the week, total revenue would be TR = 20 × 80 = Rs.1600/Average Revenue (AR) :
Revenue obtained per unit of output sold is termed ‘average revenue’. It is
simply the total revenue divided by the number of units of output sold. Thus
AR = TR/Q
In our example, AR = 1600/80 = Rs.20/Thus, the revenue earned per unit is Rs.20/-. That is equal to the price in the
example. Is this average revenue always equal to the price? If seller charges different
price for different units (like bulk discount) or charges different price from different
customers. (Doctors charging different price from different patients), then price will
not be equal to the average revenue.
Marginal Revenue : Marginal revenue is the addition made to the total
revenue by selling one more unit of the item, or simply, it is the revenue or sales
receipt of the marginal (latest addition) unit of the firm’s sale.
MRn = TRn – TRn
In our example TR80 = Rs.1600/- when 80 units are sold, and price is given at
Rs.20 per unit TR79 would be 1580.
Hence MR80th unit =1600 - 1580 = 20
Otherwise, it is the rate of increase in total revenue when the increment in the
sale of output is assumed unit wise i.e. MR = DTR/ DQ
Relationship between AR and MR curves :
The relationship between AR and MR depends on the market form, within
which the firm under consideration is operating. For the purpose of revenue analysis
market form can be classified in to perfect competition and imperfect competition. The
reason behind this classification is that in perfect competition the firm is a price taker
hence AR = MR at all levels of sale. While in imperfect competition AR and MR are
different to the firm under study.
1)
Under Perfect Competition :
Under perfect competition a very large number of firms are producing identical
product. Hence the market forces of supply and demand determine the price and that
price prevails for all the firms in the industry. It is as shown in fig. 1 (A). Each firm
can sell as much as it wishes at the ruling market price OP. Thus the demand for the
product is infinitely elastic, (Fig .IB). Since the demand curve is the average revenue
curve for the firms and AR is unchanged at all levels hence MR is equal to AR at all
levels of demand.
Fig. 1
Table-I
2)
Q
AR
TR
MR
1
20
20
20
2
20
40
20
3
20
60
20
4
20
80
20
5
20
100
20
6
20
120
20
7
20
140
20
Under Imperfect Competition :
When competition is not perfect, the firm will face downward sloping demand
curve, whether market, form is monopolistic competition, oligopoly or monopoly.
Downward sloping demand curve means firms’ can sell larger quantity of output only
lowering the price of the product. In other words in imperfect competition AR curve
would be downward sloping for the firm. And when average revenue curve is
downward sloping marginal revenue curve would be below AR
Imperfect Competition :
Q
AR (P)
1R
MR
1
20
20
20
2
18
36
16
3
16
48
12
4
14
56
8
5
12
60
4
6
10
60
0
7
08
56
(-) 4
The relation between MR and AR is explained in the table 2. To increase the
demand of the product the producer reduces the price by Rs .2/- in each case and MR
incoming down by Rs.4/- in each case because producer gets lower price on previous
units also.
This relationship is shown in fig. 2
Geometrical Relationship between AR and MR Curve
A typical Geometrical relationship is observed between the linear AR and MR
curves. That is in the case of linear data the MR falls twice of the fall in price at each
level of output. Thus when demand curve (AR) is straight line, the MR is also straight
line and lies in Mid-way between price axis (Y-axis) and average revenue curves.
Proof : To prove the statement a point P is taken on the price axis (Y -axis) in fig. 3
Fig- 3
At price OP, quantity OQ is demanded. The point B is thus obtained on the AR
curve. Line PB is drawn. The MR curve cuts the line PB at point T. PB is the distance
between AR curve and the Y-axis. In order to prove that the MR curve lies exactly at
half the distance, we have to prove PT = BT. for this a perpendicular BQ is drawn.
The MR curve cuts BQ at point N.
Since total Revenue. (TR) = Price × Output
TR = OP × OQ = Area OPBQ ------------ 1
Again since TR = åMR
TR = Area ODBQ --------------- 2
It follows thus OPNQ = ODNQ ------------------- 3
Geometrically, it is clear that
OPBQ = OPTNQ + BIN ------------------------- 4
And ODNW = OPTNQ-+ PTD ----------------------- 5
Form eq (3) I follows that
OPTNQ + BTN= OPTNQ +PTD ---------------------- 6
OPTNQ being common it follows
Therefore, BTN =
PTD ---------------------- 7
This means D triangle BTN and are equal in area
Again in these triangles
Ð DPT = Ð TBN (being right angle)
Ð PTD = Ð BTN (being vertically opposite angles)
Ð PDT = Ð TNB (being alternate angles)
Hence, both triangles are equiangular.
DPTD and DBTN are similar.
Since both these triangles are equal in area and also similar, it follows that both
are congruent. Hence their corresponding sides are equal.
PT = BT
BN = PD
TN = DT
Hence point p lies exactly in the middle of line PB. This means, when the MR
curve passes through point T, it has exactly at half the distance between AR curve and
price axis (y-axis).
If the demand curve is non - linear, then also the MR curve will be below to
AR but it will not be at mid way.
Fig. 4
The Relationship between AR, MR and elasticity.
The marginal revenue (MR) is related to the price elasticity of demand with the
formula:
MR = P – 1 – i/e
Proof :
Where MR – Marginal Revenue
P
-
Price
£
-
Price elasticity of Demand
P = f( Q)
The total revenue is TR = PQ = [f(Q)]Q.
The MR is
MR =
On the basis of this formula the relationship between AR and MR is explained.
e= rearranging we obtain Substituting dp/dQ in the expression of MR we find
MR = P + Q
MR = P + Q P /-eQ = P - Q P/eQ = P –
MR = P (1 —)
And P = AR
MR = AR ( 1 —)
On the basis of this formula the relationship between AR and MR is explained.
MR is positive only if the price elasticity of demand is greater the 1.
Example i.e. = 1
MR = AR (1- 1/e ) MR = AR (1-1/1 ) = AR (0) =0
MR = AR (1-1/2 ) = AR (1/2 )
(MR = 1/2 ) AR and so on
Questions :
1.
Define (i) Total Revenue (ii) Average Revenue (iii) Marginal Revenue.
2.
Trace the relationship between price, total average and marginal revenues of a
firm under perfect competition.
3.
Trace the relationship between price and total revenue under imperfect
competition.
4.
Explain the geometrical relationship between the linear AR and MR curve.
5.
Write short notes on :
(i)
AR, MR and elasticity of Demand.
(ii)
Firm demand under perfect competition.
(iii)
Firm demand under imperfect competition.
Section : B
Break Even Analysis
The break - even analysis (BEA) has considerable significance for
economic research, business decision making company management,
investment analysis and public policy.
Break even analysis is an important technique to trace the relationship
between cost, revenue and profits at the varying levels of output or sales. In
BEA, the break even point is located at that level of output or sales at which the
net income or profit is zero. At this point total cost is equal to total revenue.
Hence the break -even point is the no profit no loss point. However the object
or the BEA is not just to determine the break - even point (BEP), but to
understand the financial relationship among cost, revenue and the rate of output
.It is also called cost -volume - profit analysis.
Fig - 5
In the fig. 5 total revenue and total costs are plotted on vertical axis,
where sales or output per period are plotted on the horizontal axis.
The slope of the TR curve refers to the constant price of Rs.10 per unit at
which the firm can sell-its output. The TC curve indicates total fixed costs
(TFC) of Rs.200 (the vertical intercept) and constant average variable cost
(AVC) of Rs.5 (the slope of TC curve). In the figure it is clear that the firm
break even (with TR = TC = Rs.400) at Q = 40 per time period. (Point B in the
figure). The firms incurred loss at smaller output and earn profit at higher
output levels.
The cost volume profit or break - even chart is a flexible tool to quickly
analyse and plan accordingly the effect of changing conditions on the firm. For
example an increase in the price of commodity can be shown by increasing the
slope of the TR curve on shown an increase in the total fixed costs of the firm
can be shown an increase in the vertical intercept of the TC curve and a
decrease in the average of a variable cost by decrease in the TC curve.
Break even Analysis (BEA) can also be performed algebraically, as
follow. Total revenue is equal to the selling price (P) per unit times the quantity
of output or sales (Q). That is :
TR = (P) (Q) ...................... (1)
Total costs (TC) equal total fixed cost (TFC ) plus total variable cost
(TVC) Since TVC is equal to the average (per unit) variable cost. (AVC) times
the quantity of output or sales we have
TC = TFC +AVC (Q) ---------------- (2)
Setting total revenue equal to total costs and substituting Qb (the break even output) for Q, we get
TR = TC .................... (3)
(P) (QB) = TFC + AVC (QB) --------------- (4)
Solving the equation (4) for QB, we have
(P)(QB) - AVC (QB) = TFC
QB (P-AVC ) = TFC
QB = TFC/
--------------P-AVC ------------------- (5)
For example, with TFC = Rs.200, P = B 10 and AVC = Rs.5
QB = 200 / 10-5 = 40
This is the same break -even output shown on the cost - volume profit fig
. (6). The denominator in equation (5) (P-A VC) is called contribution margin
per unit because it represent the portion of the selling price that can be applied
to cover the fixed costs of the firm and to provide for profits.
Profit Planning :
More generally, suppose, the firm wishes to earn a specific profit and
want to estimate the quantity that they must sell to earn that profit. Cost volume
profit or break even analysis can be used in determining the target output (QT)
at which a target profit (pT) can be achieved. To do so, we simply add p T to
the numerator of eq . 5 and we have
QT = TFC + pT/P - AVC
For example, if the firm wanted to earn a target profit of Rs.200 in our
Previous example, the target output would be
QT = 200 +200 /10 - 5 = 400 / 5 = 80
To see that the output of Q = 80 does indeed lead to the target profit (pT)
of Rs.200, note that
TR = (P)(Q) = (10) (80) = 800
TC = TFC + AVC (Q) = 200 + 5 (80) = 200 + 400 = 600
= TR - TC = 800 - 600 = 200
While linear cost volume profit analysis can be very useful and are
frequently used by business executives government agencies and other
organizations, care must be taken to apply them only in uses where the
assumption of constant price and average variable costs hold.
It prices and average variable costs are not constant, a non-linear Breakeven-analysis can be applied, that is an advance technique to be covered under
the under graduate course level.
QUESTIONS :
1)
(a)
What is break even analysis.
(b)
What is the assumption under lying the linear BEA
1)
What are the limitations of BE A
2)
Explain and illustrate a break - even chart. Point out the usefulness of the
break-even analysis.
Lesson - 9
Price Determination Under Perfect Competition
(Author : Anil Kumar)
‘Perfect Competition’ is a phrase used often in everyday discussion and
any people have an institute and vague understanding of what it means. The
concept of perfect competition is very old and was discussed in a casual way by
Adam Smith in his ‘Wealth of Nations’. Edgeworth was the first to attempt (in
his book ‘Mathematical Psychics’; 1881) a systematic and vigorous definition
of perfect competition. The concept received its complete formulation in Frank
Knights book ‘Risk, Uncertainty and Profit’ (1921).
The concept of perfect competition is based on large number of
assumptions, but following are the most important.
i)
Every firm in the market is so small that it cannot exert any perceptible
reference on price. Thus the firm is a price taker and not price maker.
ii)
The product is homogenous. In the eyes of the consumer, the product of
one seller is identical to that of another seller. This ensures that buyers
are indifferent as concerned to the firm from which they purchase.
iii)
The industry is characterized by freedom of entry and exit. Any new firm
is free to setup production if it so wishes, and any existing firm can stop
production and leave the industry according to its will.
iv)
There is free mobility of factors of production. All resources are
perfectly mobile. For instance, labour is mobile geographically and
among jobs.
v)
The participants in the market have perfect knowledge. Consumers know
prices; producers know costs; workers know wage rate; and So on In
addition every one has complete knowledge of the market.
vi)
There is no government interference in the market. Tariffs, subsidics and
so on are ruled out.
vii)
There is absence of transport cost as all firms are closer to the market,
and all firms are supposed to be equally far away from the market.
Pure and Perfect Competition
A distinction is often made between pure competition and perfect
competition. But this distinction is more a matter of degree than of find. For a
market to be purely competitive, three fundamental conditions must prevail.
(i)
A large number of buyers and sellers.
(ii)
A homogeneity of product and
(iii)
The free entry or exit of firms.
For the market to be perfectly competitive, following additional
conditions must be fulfilled,
i)
Perfect knowledge of market.
ii)
Perfect mobility of factors of production.
iii)
Absolutely no government interference and
iv)
No transport cost difference incidently, the term perfect competition is
traditionally used by British economists while discussing the price
theory. American economists, however, prefer to construct a pure
competition market model realistically assuming that additional
conditions for perfect competition, such as perfect mobility of labour,
perfect knowledge etc. may not be attainable.
Equilibrium of Firm
A firm is said to be in equilibrium when it has no tendency either to
increase or to contract its output. A firm is in equilibrium when it is earning
maximum profit.
Conditions of Equilibrium
A firm would be in equilibrium when the following two conditions are
fulfilled :
1.
MC = MR
2.
MC curve cuts MR curve from below.
Under perfect competition, an individual firm has to accept, price
determined by industry. The firm under perfect competition is a price taker and
not price maker. Demand curve or average revenue curve of the firm is a
horizontal straight line (i.e. parallel to X-axis). Since perfectly competitive
firms sell additional units of output at the same price, marginal revenue curve
coincides with average revenue curve.
to decide about its equilibrium output, the firm will compare marginal cost with
marginal revenue; It will be in equilibrium at the level of output at which
marginal cost is equal to marginal revenue and marginal cost curve cuts
marginal revenue curve from below.
Consider the Fig. I in which price OP is prevailing in the market.
Marginal cost curve cuts MR curve at two different points Eo and E1 and
marginal cost and marginal revenue are equal at these two points. Eo can not be
the position of equilibrium since at Eo second order condition of the firms
equilibrium is not satisfied.
The firm can increase its profits by increasing production beyond Eo
because marginal revenue is greater than marginal cost. The firm will be in
equilibrium at point E1 or output OQ1 since at E1 marginal cost equals to
marginal revenue as well as marginal cost curve cuts marginal revenue curve
from below.
Equilibrium of the firm in the short period
Short run means period of time within which the firms can alter their
level of output only by increasing or decreasing the amount of variable factors
such as labour and raw material, while fixed factors like capital equipment
remain unchanged. Moreover, in the short run, new firms can neither enter the
industry nor the existing firms can leave it.
For the sake of simplicity of study, let us suppose that in an industry all
factors of production, are homogenous. All the firms are equally efficient such
as they have identical cost curve. Under the circumstances each firm of a given
industry, in equilibrium may get either.
i)
Super normal profit.
ii)
Normal profit.
iii)
Suffer losses
All the three situations depend upon the price determined by the
industry.
All the three situations faced by the firms in equilibrium in short run are
explained diagrammatically.
i)
Equilibrium with Super Normal Profits
A firm is in equilibrium when its marginal cost is equal to marginal
revenue and marginal cost curve cuts marginal revenue curve from below A
firm in equilibrium earns super normal profits, when average revenue (Price)
determined by industry is more than its average cost. In the Fig. 2 SAC and
SMC are short run average and marginal cost curves of the firm. PP, is the
average and marginal revenue curves, which are parallel to X-axis. The reason
being, under perfect competition, firm is a price taker not price maker. The
firm’s equilibrium will be at point E. A perpendicular parallel to the Y-axis is
drawn at point E connecting the
Fig. 2
X-axis at Q. EQ is the equilibrium price because point E lies on the
demand curve, and price is determined by demand curve. Average cost is equal
to CQ. Since average revenue is greater than average cost. Thus, firms per unit
excess profit is EC which is the difference between price (EQ) and the
corresponding average cost (CQ). Total supernormal profit of a firm is PECD.
Equilibrium with Normal Profit
In the short period, it is possible that firm earns only normal profit. This
happens only when the average cost curve of the firm is tangent to its average
revenue curve. Equilibrium of the firm has been explained in the Fig. 3.
E is the equilibrium point because at this point MC = MR. MC curve
cuts MR curve from below. OQ is the equilibrium output. At OQ level of output
the firms AC curve is tangent to AR curve. Thus the firm will earn only normal
profit because average revenue (EQ) being equal to average cost (EQ).
Equilibrium with Losses
A firm in equilibrium may incur losses when at the equilibrium level of
output firm’s average cost is greater than average revenue. The equilibrium of
the firm can be explained with the help of Fig. 4.
In the Fig. 4 marginal cost is equal to marginal revenue at point E. MC
curve cuts MR curve from below. OQ is the equilibrium level of output.
Average revenue and average cost of the firm are equal to EQ and FQ
respectively. At OQ level of output, firms average cost is greater than average
revenue. Firm’ s per unit loss is equal to EF and total loss is equal to area
EFPG.
Now the question arises why the-firm continues production even at
losses. The reason being, in the short period fixed factors like machinery and
plants cannot be changed. Therefore, if the firm stops production due to loss,
then it will have to bear losses equivalent to fixed cost.
If the firm in the short period earns revenue which covers not only its
average variable cost but also some part of fixed cost, the firm will continue its
production. In such circumstances, firm will incur more losses if it stops
production. Therefore, it is better for the firm to continue to produce so long as
it earns revenue more than or equivalent to minimum average variable cost,
then firm will incur minimum losses. But when the firm’s price or average
revenue falls below minimum average variable cost the firm will prefer to
discontinue its production. The firm can avoid cost of variable factors of
production.
The above argument has been elaborated by the Fig 4. When price is OP
then firm’s equilibrium is at point E and it will produce OQ level of output. The
firm experiences loss equivalent to area FEPG. The firm will continue its
production in such situation, because price is greater than minimum average
variable cost.
If the price of the commodity is OP1 then the equilibrium of the firm will
be at point E and price is equivalent to minimum of average variable cost.
At point Eo, the firm is covering its minimum average variable cost. But
at this point no part of fixed cost is being covered. Therefore, the loss of firm is
equivalent to total fixed cost, at OQo level of output Point Eo is known as ‘shut
down point’. If price falls below OP1 then production will be stopped because
firm’s loss is more than total fixed cost.
Long-Run Equilibrium of the Firm
The long run is a period of time which is sufficiently long to allow the
firm to make changes in all factors of production. The firms in the long run, can
increase their output by changing their capital equipment, they may expand
their old plant or replace the old lower capacity plants by the new higher
capacity plant. Besides, in the long run new firm can enter the industry to
complete with existing firm.
The long run equilibrium refers to the situation where free and full
adjustment in the capital equipment as well as in the number of firms has been
allowed to take place.
A firm is in equilibrium under perfect competition when MC = MR and
MC curve must cut MR curve from below. But for the firm to be in long run
equilibrium, besides the equality of MC and MR, there must be equality of AR
and AC. In other words, the firm will get only normal profits. If the price is
greater than the average cost, the firms will earn super normal profits. The
supernormal profits will attract other firms into the industry. The price of the
product will go down as a result of increase in supply of output and the cost will
go up as a result of more intensive competition for factors of production. The
firms will continue entering into the industry until the price is equal to average
cost so that all firms are earning only normal profits.
On the contrary, if the price is lower than the average cost, the firm
would make losses. These losses will induce some of the existing firms to quit
the industry. Supply of output will decrease and price will increase because of
increase in the average cost. Thus, the firms will get only normal profit, in the
long run.
From this analysis we conclude that for the firm to be in equilibrium in
the long run following two condition should be fulfilled.
(i)
MC = MR and MC curve must cut MR curve from below.
(ii)
Average Revenue must be equal to average Cost (AR = AC).
Because in the perfect competition, AR = MR, the above the condition
can also be written as :
Price = AR = MR = LMC = LAC.
Price = LMC = LAC
The relationship MC and AC also reveals that MC curve cuts AC curve
at its minimum point.
These, conditions for long run equilibrium of the firm can also be written
as:
Price = MC = Minimum Average Cost
The Fig. 5 represents long run equilibrium of firm under perfect
competition.
LAC and LMC are the long run average and marginal Cost curves,
respectively. The firm will be in equilibrium at point E, at which marginal Cost
is equal to marginal revenue and marginal Cost curve is rising.
Fig. 5
The firm will get only normal profits because at point E, LAC curve is
tangent to AR curve.
If price is increases from OP to OP1, where the firm is earning abnormal
profits. There will be tendency for new firms to enter and compete away these
abnormal profits. The firms cannot be in long run equilibrium at any price
higher than OP.
On the contrary, if price declines from OP to OP2 then price will be less
than marginal cost, and consequently the firms will incur losses. Some of
existing firms will quit the industry due to which supply of the commodity will
decline. The price will increase due to decrease in supply. In the long run the
equilibrium of the firm will be at OP price because firm will get only normal
profits at the price.
Equilibrium of Industry under Perfect Competition
The industry will be in equilibrium when industry has no tendency to
either increase or decrease its level of output. An industry is said to be in
equilibrium when t1kre is no tendency for it to expand or contract. It means
demand for the product of industry and supply of it are in equilibrium. The
industry has no tendency to vary its output. If at a prevailing price, demand for
the commodity is more than supply, the industry will try to expand its output.
On the other hand, if at prevailing price, quantity demanded of a product falls
short of quantity supplied, the price and output of the industry will tend to fall.
When demand for the commodity is equal to supply of commodity, then
industry will have no tendency to vary its output. Thus we conclude that
industry will be in equilibrium at that level of price end output, where demand
curve and supply curve intersect each other.
Conditions of Equilibrium of the Industry
For the industry to be in equilibrium following three conditions should
be fulfilled :
i)
Demand for and supply of product of the Industry must be equal.
ii)
All the firms in the industry should be in equilibrium
iii)
There should be no tendency to change the number of firms in the
industry i.e. the firms are earning only normal profits.
Short Run Equilibrium of the Industry
In the short run, new firms can neither enter in the industry nor the old
firms exit from the industry. Therefore, industry will be in equilibrium when
above given first two conditions are fulfilled. The short run equilibrium of
industry has been shown in the Fig. 6.
Fig. 6
In part A of the diagram, the equilibrium of the industry has been shown.
Demand curve and supply curve of the industry intersect each other at point E.
OP is the equilibrium price and OQ is the equilibrium output.
The firm will take OP price as given and adjust its output in such a way
that it may earn maximum profit. In part B of the diagram equilibrium of the
firm has been shown. EO is the firm’s equilibrium. OM is the equilibrium
output. Average revenue and average cost are equal to EOM and CM
respectively. Since average revenue is greater than average cost, the firm is
earning super normal profit equal to area EOCGP. Suppose; cost of all the firms
are identical, all the firms are earning normal profit. If the demand for the
product declines, the price of the product will also decline and the equilibrium
will be at lower level of output. The industry will be in equilibrium, although
firms might be incuring losses.
In this case too the industry will be in short run equilibrium.
Long-Run Equilibrium of the Industry
Long run is that period of time under which new firms can enter and old
firms can leave the industry. If firms in the industry are earning super normal
profits, new firms will enter in the industry. On the other hand if the firms in the
industry are incurring losses, then some existing firms will eave the industry.
Therefore, the industry will be in equilibrium, when above given three
conditions are fulfilled.
In part A of Fig. 7, industry equilibrium is shown. E is the equilibrium
point. OP and OQ are the equilibrium level of price and output. The firms will
adjust their output in such a way that it may earn maximum profits. In part B of
diagram, equilibrium of the firm has been shown
Fig. 7
OM is the equilibrium level of output. The firm will get only normal
profits because LAC curve is tangent to AR curve at equilibrium level of output
OM. If cost curve of all the firms are identical all the firms in the industry will
earn only normal profits.
Under these circumstances, there will be no tendency for the firms to
enter or leave the industry.
Price Determination under Perfect Competition
In the previous section we have already discuses that under perfect
competition price of the commodity is determined by industry and firm has to
accept the price prevailing in the market. In other words, under the perfect
competition firm is a price taker and not price maker. Individual firm can not
influence the price of the commodity. The question arises, how the price is
determined under perfect competition. We will give the answer to this question
in this part. Analysis of price determination is the effort of many economists.
Classical and non-classical economists developed the ideas. Modem economists
improved and further developed it. There were some differences among
classical economists, regarding the price determination. Before Marshall, there
were two schools of thoughts in this regard. According to Adam Smith, Ricardo
etc., the believers of one school of thought, price of the commodity is
determined by its cost of production or supply of the commodity.
According of Walras, Jevons etc. the believers of other school of
thought, price of the commodity is determinded by its marginal utility or
demand for the commodity. “But each school of thought took one sided view of
the pricing problem.
At the end of nineteenth century, the credit of finding the true answer to
pricing problem goes to Marshall, who held the view that price of the
commodity is influenced by the forces of both demand and supply. In other
words, the price of the commodity depends on cost of production as well as on
the-marginal utility of the commodity. He linked the price determination to the
cutting of a piece of paper by both blades of scissor. It means to cut a piece of
paper, coordination of both blades of scissor is essential.
Equilibrium Price
The price at which quantity demanded equals quantity supplied is called
equilibrium price. The quantity of goods which is bought and sold at this
equilibrium price is called equilibrium amount. The intersection of demand and
supply curves determines the price-quantity equilibrium. At the equilibrium
price both the buyer and seller could be satisfied. If price of the commodity is
more than equilibrium price, then the seller will offer more quantity for sale as
compared to the demand. It means seller will not be able to sell all the
commodity at that price. The seller will reduce the price of the commodity. This
tendency will continue till the demand for the commodity becomes equal to
supply of the commodity.
If price of the commodity is less than equilibrium price, the quantity
demanded will be more than quantity supplied. It means some of the consumers
would not be able to purchase the commodity. There will be the tendency of
price to increase till quantity demanded becomes equal to quantity supplied. It
means, the price which is determined in the markets will not be more or less
than equilibrium price. The determination of equilibrium price can be explained
with the help of Fig. 8.
In this Fig. on X-axis quantity and on Y-axis price have been taken. DD
is the demand curve and SS is the supply curve.
E is the equilibrium price, where demand and supply curve inter-sect
each other. OP is the equilibrium price and OQ is the equilibrium quantity.
If price is more than equilibrium price, suppose it is OP1, at this price
quantity demanded is P1A and quantity supplied is P1B. It means there is excess
supply over demand equal to AB. To sell this excess supply the sellers will
compete with each other and this process will bring down the price. Thus, there
will be tendency for the price to fall to the level of equilibrium price OP.
Now suppose, if price of the commodity. is less than equilibrium price,
at this price the quantity demanded is equal to P2D and quantity supplied is P2C.
It means there is excess demand over supply equal to CD. The buyers will
demand more commodity and there will the tendency of price to increase due to
increase in demand till it becomes equal to equilibrium price.
From above it follows that if the price of the commodity is more or less
than equilibrium price, certain forces in the system will operate to bring the
price equal to the equilibrium price.
Effect of Changes in Demand and Supply on Price
Equilibrium price will change if either the demand or the supply curve
changes due to changes in demand or supply conditions. The change in demand
is due to changes in income, taste, preferences and prices of related
commodities. Similarly, the change in supply is due to change in the cost of
production, change in the method of production etc. The change in demand and
supply will shift the position of demand and supply curves. Consequently, the
equilibrium price is determined at the new position. If the supply curve remains
constant, an increase in demand will shift the demand curve to right and
equilibrium price will increase. On the contrary; if demand decreases the
demand curve will shift to left and equilibrium price will decrease. This process
can be explained with the help of the Fig. 9.
In the fig., on the X-axis quantity and on Y-axis price has been taken.
DD and 88 are the demand and supply curves respectively. E is the equilibrium
price where demand and supply curves intersect each other. OP and OQ are the
equilibrium price and quantity respectively. If supply remains constant, increase
in demand will cause the shi ft of demand curve to right of the original demand
curve (DD). The new demand curve (D1D1) will intersect original supply curve
(88) at E1. Thus E1 will be new equilibrium point. OP1 and OQ1 are the new
equilibrium price and quantity respectively. Thus, the equilibrium price will
increase due to increase in demand. On the contrary, if the demand decreases, it
will cause the shift of demand curve to left of original demand curve (DD).
Fig. 9
The new demand curve (D2D2) intersects original supply curve 88 at
thus, E2 will be the equilibrium point OP2 and OQ2 are the new equilibrium
price and quantity, respectively. It means decrease in demand will reduce the
price and quantity demanded.
On the other hand, if the demand for the commodity remains constant,
the increase in supply, will cause the shift of supply curve to the right of the
original supply curve, the equilibrium price will fall and vice-versa. This has
been explained with the help of the Fig. 10.
On the X-axis quantity and on Y-axis price have been taken. DD and SS
are original demand and supply curves. Both curves intersect each
Fig. 10
other at point E. OP and OQ are the equilibrium price and quantity respectively.
If now supply increases, supply curve will experience shift from SS to. S1S1, the
equilibrium price will decrease from OP to OP1 and equilibrium quantity will
increase from OQ to OQ1. If supply decreases, the supply curve will undergo
shift from SS to S2S2 the equilibrium price will increase from OP and OP2.
Thus, the price will increase due to increase in supply and vice-versa.
Influence of Time Element on Price Determination
In previous part, we have analysed that under perfect competition price
of the commodity is determined by the forces of demand and supply. Marshall,
who propounded the theory says the price is determined by the forces of
demand as will as supply. He also laid emphasis on the time element in the
determination of price. According to him, time plays a vital role in the
determination of the price of the commodity, because when the demand for the
commodity changes the supply can not be changed in the same proportion. It
takes time to bring changes in the supply of commodity.
Marshall has divided the time into .three categories from the view point
of supply
1.
Market Period
2.
Short Period
3.
Long Period
4.
Secular period
It is worth mentioning that Marshall has not classified time on the basis
of clock time, rather it has been done on the basis of operational time.
Operational time means the time during which supply adjusts itself according to
the change in demand.
Technical conditions of production do not allow the supply to adjust
according to changes in demand conditions. It takes time to change size, scale
and Organisation of firms as well as industry.
1.
Market Period :
Market period is that period during which supply of commodity cannot
be changed. It means supply can not be increased beyond the stock of the
commodity. In case demand increases the supply can not be increased beyond
the stock available. In market period, supply of the commodity remains
constant, It is the demand that plays a Vital role in determining the price of the
commodity. The price will increase due to increase in demand and vice-versa.
2.
Short Period
Short period is that period under which the supply can be adjusted to a
limited extent. During this time, the firms cannot bring change in the size of the
plant. Production can be increased only by changing the variable factors of
productions. It means production can be increased only by using the existing
factors, of production intensively. . In short period also, neither the new firms
can enter in industry nor the existing firms can leave the industry.
In the short period demand will influence price more as compared to
supply. The reason being, supply, can be increased upto a limited extent.
Supply can not be adjusted fully according to change in demand. The supply of
commodity will be more in the short period as compared to that in market
period.
If demand for the commodity increases in the short period, supply of
commodity can increase upto a limited extent.
3.
Long Period :
Long period is that period of time under which factors of production can
be adjusted fully according to the change in demand. In long period, the firms
can change the size of the existing plants. New firms can enter in the industry
and old firms can leave the industry. Thus, in long period supply can be
adjusted according to change in demand.
Secular Period :
It is also called very long period in which habits, population and
technology etc. also undergo a change.
It is clear from the above analysis that time plays a vital role in
determining the price of commodity. The shorter the time, the more will be the
influence of demand as compared to the supply.
Determination of Market Price
Market price is the price of commodity, which prevails at any given
point. Market price is determined by the equilibrium between demand and
supply in a market period. Supply of commodity in the market period is limited
by existing stock of the commodity. The market Period is so short that supply
can not be increased in response to increase in demand supply can not be more
than stock of commodity. It is not essential that whatever, is available in stock,
is offered for sale. Commodity offered for sale, out of the stock, depends upon
the nature of the commodity, i.e. whether it is perishable or durable one.
Perishable commodities like vegetables, milk, etc can not be stored for a longer
period of time, due to nature of commodity. The whole of stock is to be offered
for sale, whatever may be the price of the commodity. Thus, the supply of the
commodity will be perfectly inelastic in the short period. It means the supply of
the commodity will remain constant. The price of the commodity is influenced
by demand of commodity alone. Price of perishable commodities in the market
period has been explained with the help of Fig. 11.
Fig. 11
In the fig. 11 SM is supply curve of the perishable commodity. It is
parallel to Y-axis, Suppose DD is the original demand curve. It intersects
supply curve at point E. OP will be the market price. If demand increases, the
demand curve will shift to the right of the original demand curve (DD). E1 will
be new equilibrium point. The price will increase from OP to OP1. On the other
hand, if demand decreases, the demand will shift to the left of the original
demand curve. The new demand curve D2D2 intersects supply curve at point E2.
The market price will reduce from OP to OP2.
As we have already explained, supply of the perishable commodities are
limited by the existing stock. But in case of durable commodities, it is not so.
The reason being, such commodities can be stored for a longer period of time.
Therefore, the seller will not sell all the stock of commodity at a given price. He
will wait for some time in anticipation of earning more profit. Seller will sell
less quantity at low price and vice-versa. At a particular price level he will be
ready to sell entire stock of commodity and at a certain minimum price, he will
prefer to keep all commodity as a stock. In the former case, supply is equal to
stock and in latter case, supply is equal to zero. Supply of the commodity will
be elastic in these two extremes. The price at which a seller will refuse to sell
his commodity is called Reserve Price.
There are several factors which govern the reserve price. These are as
follows.
1.
It depends upon the seller’s expectation regarding future price of the
commodity. If he expects higher future price, reserve price will be higher
and vice-versa.
2.
The seller’s liquidity preference is another factor. The reserve price will
be lower in case of higher liquidity preference and vice-versa.
3.
The reserve price also depends upon the durability of the commodity.
Higher the durability of the commodity, higher will be the reserve price.
The above analysis usually explains that market price is influenced more
by demand factor. Supply of commodity remains constant during market
period. The price of the commodity changes due to change is demand.
The price determination of durable commodity has been explained with
the help of Fig. 12.
The supply curve RS is elastic from R to E and inelastic beyond E, Total
stock of the commodity is OM1. Suppose DD is the original demand curve. It
intersects supply curve at point E. OP price is equilibrium price. At this price
OM quantity is offered for sale, which is less
Fig. 12
than total stock. The seller will keep MM, quantity as a stock if the demand for
commodity increases. The demand curve will shift from DD to D1D1. The new
equilibrium price will be OP1. At this price woe stock of the commodity will be
offered for sale. On the other hand, if demand decreases, the demand curve will
shift from DD to D3D3. The equilibrium price will be OP3 and OMO quantity is
offered for sale. MOM1 amount of quantity will be kept in stock. In the fig., at
OR reserve price, the supply of the commodity is zero. When the price
increases beyond OR, the supply of the commodity also increases. At OP1
price, supply of the commodity becomes perfectly inelastic.
If demand for commodity increases further, the new demand curve will
be D2D2 and the new price will be OP2. Because supply of the commodity can
not be increased.
Determination of Short-Period Price
Short period price is determined by forces of demand and supply. Under
perfect competition, supply curve of the industry in the short period is the
summation of short run cost curves of the firms. Supply curve of industry is
positively sloped in the short period. The supply curve of industry lies above
minimum of average variable cost.
The process of price determination has been explained with the help of
the Fig. 13.
In the fig. MS and SRS are market period and short run supply curves
respectively. D1D1 is the original demand curve. E1 is the equilibrium point,
where demand curve (DD) and short run supply curve (SRS)
Fig. 13
intersect each other. OP1 is the equilibrium price. This is also market price
because market supply curve (MS) also intersects demand curve (D1D1) at point
E1. If demand increases, the new demand curve (D2D2) intersects market supply
curve (MS) at point E3 and short run supply curve (SRS) at point E2. The price
in the short period increases from OP1 to OP2 and supply of the commodity
increases from OQ to OQ1. In comparison to short run price, market price is
fixed at OP3. which is higher than short run period price due to inelastic supply
of commodity. But the short period price OP, is higher than original price OP.
The reason being, when the production is increased, the marginal cost of
commodity increases.
On the contrary, when the demand decreases, it will cause shift of the
demand curve to the left of original demand curve (D1D1). The new demand
curve will be D3D3. The new demand curve (D3D3) intersects market supply
(MS) at A and short period supply curve (SRS) at EO.
OPO and OB will be price in the short period and market period
respectively. The price in the short period is higher than the market period. The
qua1J.tity supply in the short period will decline from OQ to OQO, where it is
fixed at OQ in the market period. The reason being in the short period
production can be changed by changing the variable factors of production,
whereas, it is not feasible in the market period.
Determination of Long Period or Normal Price
Long period price is also known as normal price. Normal price is
determined by the long run forces of demand and supply. Firms in the industry
can vary the size of plant. New firms can enter in the industry and existing
firms can leave the industry. Supply can be adjusted fully according to the
change in demand. Normal price never remains constant. Normal price
undergoes change with change in demand and supply forces. The process of
normal price determination has been explained in the Fig. 14.
In the fig., LRS and MPS are the long run supply curve and market
period supply curve respectively. DODO is the original demand curve. EO is the
equilibrium price and OMO is the equilibrium output. With increase in demand,
the new demand curve will be D1D1 and this demand curve cuts LRS curve at
point E2. OP2 will be new equilibrium normal price, the new demand curve
(D1D1) also intersects MPS curve at E1 and
Fig. 14
market price is fixed at OP1. The fig. vividly reveals that increase in normal
price is less as compared to market price. The reason being, in market period,
supply of commodity remains constant whereas it is not so in the long run. It
means in long run supply can be changed according to change in demand.
Supply of commodity also increases from OM to OM2 at OP2 price.
On the contrary, if demand decreases, the new demand curve will be
D2D2 It intersects LRS and MPS curves at points E4 and E3 respectively. New
equilibrium prices will be OP4 and OP3 respectively. Normal price declines
with decrease in demand.
Normal Price and Returns to Scale
Long run normal price is determined by the long run equilibrium
between demand and supply. In the long run the supply curve does not have any
definite slope. The reason being, cost of production is influenced by returns to
scale. Thus, the slope of supply curve will be different accordingly. In the long
run, under perfect competition supply curve can have three possible slopes.
i)
When the production in the industry is according to increasing-returns or
diminishing cost the slope of the industry supply curve will be negative.
ii)
When the production in the industry is according to diminishing returns
or increasing cost, the slope of the industry supply curve will be
negative.
iii)
When the production in industry is according to constant returns or
constant cost, the supply curve will be parallel to X-axis.
Thus returns to scale influence the normal price to a consider able extent.
Determination of Normal Price in Decreasing Returns or Increasing Cost
Industry
Increasing cost industry means when the size of the industry expands,
the cost of production of firms in the industry enhances considerably. The
reason being, it experiences certain external economies and diseconomies. But
diseconomies in case of increasing cost industry overweight the external
economies. It will cause increase in the cost of production. Consequently,
supply curve of the industry rises from left to right. When industry expands
then average minimum cost of production of the firms enhances. Normal price
under increasing cost has been explained in the Fig. 15.
Fig. 15
In the fig. LRS supply curve has a positive slope. DD is the original
demand curve. OP is the equilibrium curve. If demand increases, it will cause
the shift of demand curve to right of original demand curve (DD). The new
demand curve (D1D1) intersects (LRS) supply curve at point E. OP1 is the
equilibrium price. Price increases due to increase in cost of production. On the
contrary, if demand decreases demand curve will shift to left of the original
demand curve (DD). The new demand curve (D2D2) intersects LRS curve at
point E2. The equilibrium price reduces from OP to OP2. The industry supplies
OM2 quantity at this equilibrium price.
Determination of Normal Price in Increasing Returns or Diminishing Cost
Industry
Diminishing cost industry means when industry expands, the cost of
production of firms in the industry declines. The reason being, firms experience
more external economies as compared to external .diseconomies. In other words
external economies overweigh the external diseconomies in case of diminishing
cost industry. Thus, in case of a decreasing cost industry, the additional supplies
of the product will be forthcoming at reduced cost. The supply curve of industry
will have a negative slope.
The normal price in case of diminishing cost industry has been explained
with the help of Fig. 16. In the fig LRS supply curve slopes
Fig. 16
downwards from left to right. DD is the original demand curve. E is the
equilibrium point and OP is the equilibrium price.
If demand increases, the demand curve will shift from DD to D1D1. The
new demand curve (D1D1) intersects LRS supply curve at point E1. OP1 is the
new equilibrium price, which is lower than the original equilibrium price (OP).
The reason being; law of increasing returns operates in the industry. On the
contrary, if demand decreases, the demand curve will shift to the left of original
demand curve (DD). The new demand curve (D2D2) intersects (LRS) supply
curve at point E2. The new equilibrium price is OP2, which is higher than .the
original equilibrium price (OP).
Supply will decrease, due to decrease in demand. Therefore, in case
diminishing cost industry, with increase in demand industry offers more
quantity at reduced price.
Determination of Normal Price in Constant Returns or Constant Cost
Industry
Constant cost industry is that industry in which external commodities as
well as diseconomies cancel each other. The cost of firms in the industry
remains constant, with the change in industry.
The long run supply curve of the constant cost industry is a horizontal
straight line at the level of long run minimum average cost.
The process of price determination under constant cost industry has been
explained in the Fig. 17.
Fig. 17
In the fig. LRS supply curve is the horizontal straight line parallel to X-axis.
DD is the original demand curve, OP is the equilibrium price. If demand
increases the demand curve will shift from DD to D1D1. The new demand curve
(D1D1) intersects LRS curve at point E1. The above diagram reveals that the
price has not undergone any change despite the increase in demand. But the
supply of the commodity has increased from OM to OM1. The reason being
there is no change in cost of production. On the contrary, if demand decreases,
the demand curve will shift to left of original demand curve (DD). E2 is the
equilibrium point. In this situation, there is no change in price of the
commodity, but supply of the commodity decreases. Thus, under the constant
cost industry, with the change in demand the price of the commodity remains
constant. The reason being, cost of product of industry remains constant.
From the above discussion, it is clear that as demand increases, the long
run normal price increases, remains the same or decreases depending upon
whether the industry in question is an increasing cost, constant cost or
decreasing cost industry.
Questions :
1.
Explain equilibrium of the firm under perfect competition in the short
run and the long run.
2.
What is the meaning of equilibrium of Industry? Describe the
equilibrium of industry under perfect competition.
3.
(i)
in the short run and
(ii)
in the long run
Describe the importance of time element in the determination of price.
4.
Give the meaning of normal price. How is the normal price is
determined?
Selected References
1.
Alfred Marshall : Principles of Economics.
2.
Stonier and Hague : A Text Book of Economic Theory.
3
C.E. Ferguson : Microeconomic Theory.
4.
Richard H. Leftwich : The Price System and Resource Allocation.
Lesson - 10
PRICE DETERMINATION UNDER DUOPOLY AND OLIGOPOLY
(Author : N.K. Bishnoi)
(A)
Meaning of Duopoly
Duopoly is a special case of the theory of oligopoly in which there are
only two sellers. Both the sellers are completely independent and no agreement
exists between them. Even thought they are independent, a change in he price
and output of one will affect the other, and may set a chain of reactions. A seller
may, however, assume that his rival is unaffected by what he does, in that case
he takes only his own direct influence on the price. Thus the duopoly problem
can be considered as either ignoring mutual dependence or recognizing it. The
Cournot solution refers to the former where mutual dependence is ignored
while the Chamberlin solution relates to the latter problem where mutual
dependence is recognized.
The Cournot Model
The oldest determinate solution to the duopoly problem is by the French
economist, A.A. Cournot in 1838, who took the case of two mineral water
springs situated side by side and owned by two firms A and B.
Its Assumptions
The Cournot model is based on the following assumptions :
(i)
There are two independent sellers. In other words, interdependence of
the duopolists is ignored.
(ii)
They produce and sell a homogeneous product-mineral water.
(iii)
The total output must be sold out, being perishable and non storable.
(iv)
The number of buyers is large.
(v)
The cost of production is assumed to be zero.
(vi)
Both have identical costs and identical demands.
(vii)
Each seller decides about the quantity he wants to produce and sell in
each period.
(viii) But each is ignorant about his rival’s plan about output.
(ix)
At the same time, each seller takes the supply/output of its rival as
constant.
(x)
Neither of them fixes the price for its product, but each accepts the
market demand price at which the product can be sold.
(xi)
The entry of other firms is blocked.
(xii)
Each seller aims at obtaining the maximum net revenue or profit.
Given these assumptions, suppose there are two mineral water springs
exploited by two firms, A and B. The market demand curve is DD. and its
marginal revenue curve is MR. as shown in Figure (10.1). The marginal costs of
both A and B are assumed to be zero, so that they coincide with the horizontal
axis. Suppose firm A is the only producer in which case it produces and sells
OA (=½OD1) quantity when its MR. equals its marginal cost curve (horizontal
axis) at point A. It charges the monopoly price AS (=OP) and earns OASP as
monopoly profits. Now firm B enters the market and expects that A will not
change its output level OA. It, therefore regards SD1 segment of the market
demand cure as its demand curve. Its corresponding marginal revenue curve is
MR2 which interests the horizontal axis (its marginal cost curve) at point B.
Thus it produces and sells AB (=½AD1=BD1) quantity at BO (=OP1) price and
it expects to earn BGTA profits.
Figure 10.1
Firm A finds that with the entry of B, price has fallen to OP1 from OP.
As a result, its expected profits decline to OP1TA. In this situation, it tries to
adjust its price and output. Accordingly, assuming that B will continue to sell
the same quantity AB (=BD1), it regards the remaining portion of the market
OB available to it. It thus sell ½OB. The reduction in its output from OA
(=½OD1) to ½OB causes the price to rise (not shown in the figure to simplify
the analysis). As a result, to A’s reduction in output, B reacts by increasing its
output to ½ (OD1 = ½OB) which causes the price to rise and B’s reaction in
increasing its output and causing the price to fall, will ultimately lead to an
equilibrium price OP2. At this price, the total output of mineral water is OF,
which is equally divided between the two firms. Each duopolist sells 1/3 of the
market i.e. A sells OC and B sells CF. At this price, A’s profits OCLP2 equal
that of B’s profits CFRL.
It is evident that both the producers sell 2/3 of the total output, OPI. If
there are n producers, the equilibrium output would be n/n+1 times of the total
output. The total output of both the producers A and B is 2/(2+1) = 2/3.
Let us compare the Cournot duopoly solution with the perfectly
competitive solution. The duopoly firms A and B, in equilibrium charge OP2
price and sell OF output. Under perfect competition, the total output will be
OD1 at zero price. The price is zero because the marginal cost is zero. When the
MRI curve intersects the horizontal axis, which is the MC curve, the price is
zero at point A in the figure. The total output OD1 will be divided between A
and B equally as OA and AD1. Notice that in the Cournot solution, the price
OP2 exceeds the zero marginal cost and the price under perfect competition and
the output OF is less than OD1 under perfect competition. However, in the
Cournot solution the output (OF) is greater than it would under monopoly
(OA). But the price under monopoly (OP) would be higher than under the
Cournot solution (OP2). Algebraically, in the Cournot solution, output will be
4/3 of the monopoly output and 2/3 of the perfectly competitive output.
Conclusion
The Cournot model can be extended even to more, than two firms. As
more and more firms enter the oligopoly industry, the equilibrium output and
price of the industry will approach the perfectly competitive output OD1 and the
zero price.
Its Criticisms
The main defect in Cournot’s solution is that each seller assumes his
rival’s supply fixed despite repeatedly observing changes in it. Joseph Bertrand,
a French mathematician, criticizing Cournot in 1883 pointed out the seller A in
order to regain all the customers lost to B, will fix a price slightly below that
fixed by B and price cutting may continue until the price becomes zero. Thus,
Bertrand argued that there would not be any limit to the fall in price since each
seller could by doubling his produce, underbid his rival. This would tend to
drive down the price to the competitive level in the long-run.
Second, the model is silent about the period within which one firm reacts
and adjusts its output to the moves of the other. Thus, it is a static model.
Third, it is closed model because is does not allow entry of firms.
Fourth, the assumption that each duopolist can act without any output
reaction from the other is unrealistic. It is, in fact, a no-learning-ly-doing model.
The Chamberlin Model
Prof. Chamberlin proposed a stable duopoly solution recognizing mutual
dependence between the two sellers. He criticized and rejected the Cournot
model on the ground that it does not conform perfectly to the hypothesis that
each seller acts so as to render his profit a maximum. In order to do this, he will
take account of his total influence upon the price, indirect as well as direct.
When a seller remains passive to changes in price or output of his rival, it is a
direct influence. On the other hand, when a seller reacts to the price or output
changes of his rival and changes his own price or output, the influence is
indirect. According to Chamberlin, when interpendence is recognized between
sellers both direct and indirect influences of a change in the price or output of a
seller lead to a stable industry equilibrium with monopoly price and output.
The Chamberlin solution can be explained both in terms of output
adjustment and price adjustment. Let us take Figure (10.2) where seller A enters
the market as a monopolist first as in the Cournot model and maximizes his
profit by selling OA output at OP1 price, thereby earning OASP1 monopoly
profit. Seller B enters the market after him and considers
SD1 segment of the market demand curve (DD1) as his demand curve. Under
the Cournot assumption that his rival A will not change his output, he will sell
AB output at OP2 (=BG) price. The difference arises in Chamberlin’s solution
from this point. In the Cournot model, each rival acts independently. But
Chamberlin assumes their interdependence. So seller A does not react to B’s
move and compromises with the existence of B. Accordingly, he decides to
reduce his output from OA to OE equal to B’s output AB. Seller B also
recognizes interdependence and realizes that by selling E output at a higher
price OP1, he will share the monopoly profit. Thus by recognizing their
interdependence, each seller shares equally the monopoly industry output OA,
seller A selling OE and seller B selling EA. They also share the total monopoly
profit OASP1 equally between them, A earning OEKP1 and B earning EASK at
the monopoly price OP1. Thus OP1 (=AS) is a perfectly stable price, for either
seller can bring disaster upon himself as well as upon his rival by behaving
differently.
Figure 10.2
Chamberlin also shows that the result would be identical if sellers adjust
their prices rather than their supplies. Suppose the price is anywhere between
OP1 and OP2 In order to earn maximum profit, if. A increases his price to OP1.
B will at once follow suit. Thus B also raises his price to OP1 to get the
maximum possible profit. Once the price OP1 is set no one will cut it, for each
seller realizes that by so doing, he will reduce his profit. The equilibrium is
again, stable and determinate.
The Chamberlin solution involves a kind of agreement between the two
sellers. They do not sign it, but each seller is intelligent enough to realize the
importance of mutual dependence. Each acts rationally, looks beyond his nose
and understands that sharing monopoly profit is to the best of his advantage.
Thus, in Chamberlin’s model the sellers are independent, yet they are in a kind
of collusion which leads to stable equilibrium, a sort of monopoly equilibrium.
Its Criticisms
The Chamberlin model is also not free from certain weaknesses.
1.
Like the Cournot model, it ignores entry of firms and is thus a closed
model.
2.
This model involves joint-profit sharing with zero enforcement costs by
rivals. But problems might arise in sharing profit by the two sellers.
3.
Fellner does not agree with Chamberlin that monopoly (Joint Profit
Maximization) solution is possible under duopoly interdependence. A
(202) firm often underestimates the elasticity of the market demand
curve. The underestimation of the market demand curve leads to the
wrong estimation of the market MR curve. This may lead the collusive
firms to charge a price higher than the monopoly price. A high price
yielding very high profits may lead to the entry of firms into the
industry, thereby make the Chamberlin solution an impossibility.
(B)
Meaning of Oligopoly
Oligopoly is a market situation in which there are a few firms selling
homogeneous or differentiated products. It is difficult to pinpoint the number of
firms in the oligopolist market. There may be three” four of five firms. It is also
known as competition among the few. With only a few firms in the market, the
action of one firm is likely to affect the others. An oligopoly industry produces
either a homogeneous product or heterogeneous products. The former is called
pure or perfect oligopoly and the latter is called imperfect or differentiated
oligopoly. Pure oligopoly is found primarily among producers of aluminium,
cement, copper, steel, electricity, etc. Differentiated oligopoly is found among
producers of such consumer goods as automobiles, cigarettes, soaps &
detergents, TVs, rubber tyres, refrigerators, etc.
Characteristics of Oligopoly
In addition to fewness of sellers, most oligopolistic industries have
several common characteristics which are explained below.
(1)
Interdependence : There is recognized interdependence among the
sellers in the oligopolistic market. Each oligopolist rum knows that changes in
its price, advertising, products characteristics, etc. may lead to countermoves by
rivals. When the sellers are few, each produces a considerable fraction of the
total output of the industry and can have a noticeable effect on market
conditions. He can reduce or increase the price for the whole oligopolist market
by selling more quantity or less and affect the profits of the other sellers. Each
seller has direct and ascertainable influence upon every other seller in the
industry. Thus, every move by one seller leads to countermoves by the others.
(2)
Advertisement : The main reason for this mutual interdependence in
decision making is that one producer’s fortunes are dependent on the policies
and fortunes of the other producers in the industry. It is for this reason that
oligopolist firms spend much on advertisement and customer services. For
example, if all oligopolists continue to spend a lot on advertising their products
and one seller does not match up with them, he will find his customers
gradually going in for his rival’s product. If, on the other hand, one o.1igopolist
advertises his product, others have to follow him to keep up their sales.
(3)
Competition : This leads to another feature of the oligopolistic market,
the presence of competition. Since under oligopoly, there are a few sellers, a
move by one seller immediately affects the rivals. So each seller is always on
the alert and keeps a close watch over the moves of its rivals in order to have a
counter move. This leads to intense competition on the basis of advertisement
quality improvement, cost reduction, better service / delivery etc.
(4)
Barriers to Entry of Firms : As there is keen competition in an
oligopolistic industry, there are no barriers to entry into or exit from it in legal
sense. However, in the long-run, there are some other types of barriers to entry
which tend to restrain new firms from entering the industry. They may be : (a)
economies of scale enjoyed by a few large firms; (b) control over essential and
specialized inputs; (c:) high capital requirements due to plant costs, advertising
costs, etc. (d) exclusive patents; and licenses; (e) government policy i.e. licence,
permit and the other control measures. When entry is restricted or blocked by
such natural and/or artificial barriers the oligopolistic industry can earn longrun supernormal profits.
(5)
Indeterminate Demand Curve : It is not easy to trace the demand
curve for the product of an oligopolist. Since under oligopoly the exact
behaviour pattern of a producer cannot be ascertained with certainty, his
demand curve cannot be drawn accurately and with definiteness. How does an
individual seller’s demand curve look like in oligopoly is most uncertain
because a seller’s price or output moves led to unpredictable reactions on price
output policies of his rivals, which may have further repercussions on his price
and output. The chain of action reaction as a result of an initial change in price
or output is all a guess-work.
Price Determination Under Oligopoly
With these characteristics of oligopoly in the background, we study the
determination of prices and outputs by oligopolistic firms. Prof. Machlup has
given a detailed classification of oligopolies. But we shall confine our study to
the non-collusive oligopoly model of Sweezy (the kinked demand curve) and to
the collusive oligopoly models relating to cartels and price leadership.
I.
Non-collusive Oligopoly
1.
The Sweezy Model of Kinked Demand Curve
In his article published in 1939, Prof. P.A. Sweezy presented the kinked
demand curve analysis to explain price rigidities often observed in oligopolistic
markets.
Sweezy assumes that if the oligopolistic firm lowers its price, its rivals
will react by matching that price cut in order to avoid losing their customers.
Thus the firm lowering the price will not be able to increase its demand much.
This portion of its demand curve is relatively inelastic. On the other hand, if the
oligopolistic firm increases its price, its rivals will not follow it and raise their
prices. Thus the quantity demanded of this firm will fall considerably. This
portion of the demand curve is relatively elastic. In these two situations, the
demand curve of the oligopolistic firm has a kink at the prevailing market price
which explains price rigidity.
Its Assumptions
(i)
There are few firms in the oligopolistic industry.
(ii)
The product is of the same quality.
(iii)
There is an established or prevailing market price for the product at
which all the sellers are satisfied.
(iv)
Any attempt on the part of a seller to push up his sales by reducing the
price of his product will be counteracted by other sellers who will follow
his move. If he raises the price others will not follow him, rather they
will stick to the prevailing price and cater to the customers, leaving the
price-raising seller alone.
(v)
The marginal cost curve passes through the dotted portion of the
marginal revenue curve so that changes in marginal cost do not affect
output and price.
The Model
Given these assumptions, the price-output relationship in the oligopolist
market is explained in Figure (10.3) where KPD is the kinked demand curve
and OP0 is the prevailing price in the oligopoly market for the OR product of
one seller. Starting from point P1 corresponding to the current price OP0, any
increase in price above it will considerably reduce his sales, as his rivals are not
expected to follow his price increase. This is so because the KP portion of the
kinked demand curve is elastic, and the corresponding portion KA of the MR
curve is positive. Therefore, any price increase will not only reduce his total
sales but also his total revenue and profit.
Figure 10.3
On the other hand, if the seller reduces the price of the product below
OP0 (or P), his rivals will also reduce their prices. Though he will increase his
sales, his profit would be less than before. The reason is that the PD portion of
the kinked demand curve below P is less elastic and the corresponding part of
marginal revenue curve below R is negative. Thus in both the price raising and
price-reducing situations the seller will be a loser. He would stick to the
prevailing market price OP0 which remains rigid.
In order to study the working of the kinked demand curve, let us analyze
the effect of changes in cost and demand conditions on price stability in the
oligopolistic market.
Changes in Costs : In oligopoly under the kinked demand curve analysis
changes in costs within a certain range do not affect the prevailing price.
Suppose the cost of production falls so that the new MC curve is MC. to
the right, as in Figure (10.4). It cuts the MR curve in the gap AB so that the
profit maximizing output is OR which can be sold at OP0 price. It should be
noted that with any cost reduction the new MC curve will always cut the MR
curve in the gap because as costs fall the gap AB continues to widen due to two
reasons: (i) As costs fall, the upper portion KP of the demand curve becomes
more elastic because of the greater certainty that a price rise by one seller will
not be followed by rivals and his sales would be considerably reduced. (ii) With
the reduction in costs the lower portion PD of the kinked curve becomes more
inelastic, because of the greater certainty that a price reduction by one seller
will be followed by the other rivals.
Figure
Thus the angle KPD tends to be a right angle at P and the gap AB widens
so that any MC curve below point A will cut the marginal revenue curve inside
the gap. The net result is the same output OR at the same price OP0 and large
profits for the oligopolistic sellers.
In case the cost of production rises the marginal cost curve will shift to
the left of the old curve MC as MC2. So long as the higher MC curve intersects
the MR curve within the gap upto point A, the price situation will be rigid.,
However, with the rise in costs the price is not likely to remain stable
indefinitely and if the MC curve rise above point A, it will intersect the MC
curve in the portion KA so that a lesser quantity is sold at a higher price. We
may conclude that there may be price stability under oligopoly even when costs
change so long as the MC curve cuts the MR curve in its discontinuous portion.
However, chances of the existence of pricer rigidity are greater where there is a
reduction in costs than there is a rise in costs.
The analysis of the kinked demand curve points out that price rigidity in
oligopolistic markets is likely to prevail if there is a price reduction move on the
part of all sellers. Changes in costs and demand also lead to price stability under
normal conditions so long as the MC curve intersects the MR curve in its
discontinuous portion. But price increase rather than price rigidity may be
found in response to rising cost or increased demand.
Reasons for Price Stability
There are a number of reasons for price rigidity in certain oligopoly
markets. First, individual sellers in an oligopolistic industry might have learnt
through experience the futility of price wars and thus prefer price stability.
Second, they may be content with the current prices, outputs and profits and
avoid any involvement in unnecessary insecurity and uncertainty. Third, they
may also prefer to stick to the present price level to prevent new firms from
entering the industry. Fourth, the sellers may intensify their sales promotion
efforts at the current price instead of reducing it. They may view non-price
competition better than price rivalry. Fifth, after spending a lot of money on
advertising his product, a seller may not like to raise its price to deprive himself
of the fruits of his hard labour. Naturally, he would stick to the going price of
the product and in the last, if a stable price has been set through agreement or
collusion, no seller would like to disturb it, for fear of unleashing a price war
and thus engulfing himself into an era of uncertainty and insecurity.
Its Shortcomings
But the theory of kinked demand curve in oligopoly pricing is not
without shortcomings.
(i)
Even if we accept all its assumptions it is not likely that the gap in the
marginal revenue curve will be wide enough for the marginal cost curve to pass
through it. It may be shortened even under conditions of fall in demand or costs
thereby making price unstable.
(ii)
Price stability may be illusory because it is not based on the actual
market behaviour. Sales do not always occur at list prices. There are often
deviations from posted prices because of trade-ins, allowances and secret price
concessions. The oligopolistic seller may outwardly keep the price stable but he
may reduce the quality or quantity of the product. Thus price stability becomes
illusory.
(iii) Critics point out that the kinked demand curve analysis holds during the
short-run, when the knowledge about the reactions of rivals are low. But it is
difficult to guess correctly the rivals’ reactions in the long-run. Thus the theory
is not applicable in the long-run.
(iv) Prof. Stigler points out that case in oligopoly industries where the
number of sellers is either very small or somewhat large, the kinked demand
curve is not likely to be there. He concludes that “the empirical evidence
reveals neither price experiences that would lead oligopolists to believe in the
existence of a kink nor the pattern of changes of price quotations that the theory
leads us to expect.” Thus the empirical evidence does not support the existence
of a kink.
However, the analysis does show how the oligopolistic firm’s view of
competitive reaction patterns can affect the changeability of whatever price it
happens to be charging.
II.
Collusive Oligopoly
Collusive oligopoly is a situation in which firms in a particular industry
decide to join together as a single unit for the purpose of maximizing their joint
profits and to negotiate among themselves so as to share the market. The former
is known as the joint profit maximization cartel and the latter as the marketsharing cartel. There is another type of collusion, known as leadership, which is
based on tacit agreements. Under it, one firm acts as the price leader and fixes
the price for the product while other firms follow it. Price leadership is of three
types : low-cost firm, dominant firm, and barometric firm.
(i)
Cartels
A cartel is an association of independent firms within the same industry.
The cartel follows common policies relating to prices, outputs, sales and profit
maximization and distribution of products. Cartels may be voluntary or
compulsory, open or secret depending upon the policy of the government with
regard to their formation. Thus cartels have many forms and use many devices
in order to follow varied common policies depending upon the type of the
cartel. We discuss below the two most common types of cartels: (i) joint profit
maximization or perfect cartel; and (ii) market-sharing cartel.
1.
Joint Profit Maximization Cartel
The uncertainty to be found in an oligopolistic market provides an
incentive to rival firms to form a perfect cartel. Perfect cartel is an extreme
form of perfect collusion. In this, firms producing a homogeneous product form
a centralized cartel board in the industry. The individual firms surrender their
price-output decisions to this central board. The board determines output quotas
for its members, the price to be charged and the distribution of industry profits.
Since the central board manipulates prices, outputs, sales and distribution of
profits, it acts like a single monopoly whose main aim is to maximize the joint
profits of the oligopolistic industry.
Its Assumptions
The analysis of joint profit maximization cartel is based on the following
assumptions :
(i)
Only two firms A and B are assumed in the oligopolistic industry that
form the cartel.
(ii)
Each firm produces and sells a homogeneous product that is a perfect
substitute for each other.
(iii)
The number of buyers is large.
(iv)
The cartel aims at joint profit maximization.
Joint Profit Maximization Solution
Given these assumptions, and given the market demand curve and its
corresponding MR curve, joint profits will be maximized when the industry MR
equals the industry MC. Figure (10.5) illustrates this situation where D is the
market (or cartel) demand curve and MR is its corresponding marginal revenue
curve; The aggregate marginal cost curve of the industry SMC is drawn by the
lateral summation of the MC curves of firms A and B, so the SMC = MCa +
MCb. The cartel solution that maximizes joint profit is determined at point E
where the SMC curve intersects the industry MR curve. Consequently, the total
output is OQ which will be sold at OP = (QF) price. As under monopoly, the
cartel board will allocate the industry output by equating the industry MR to the
marginal cost of each firm. The share of each firm in the industry output is
obtained by drawing a straight line from E to the vertical axis which passes
through the curves MCb and MC a of firms B and A at points Eb and Ea
respectively. Thus the share of firm A is OQa and that of firm B is OQb which
equal the total output OQ (=OQa + OQb). The price OP and the output OQ
distributed between A and B firms in the ratio of OQa : OQb is the monopoly
solution. Firm A with the lower costs sells a larger output OQa the firm B with
hirer costs so that OQa>OQb. But this does not man that A will be getting more
profit than B. The Joint maximum profit is the sum of RSTP and ABCP earned
by A and B respectively. It will be pooled into a fund and distributed by the
cartel board according to the agreement arrived at by the two firms at the time
of the formation of the cartel. A pooling agreement of this type will make it
possible for both firms to maximize their joint profit provided the total profits
earned by them independently do not exceed the former.
Figure 10.5
Thus perfect collusion by oligopolistic firms in the form of a cartel has
certain advantages. It avoids price wars among rivals. The firms forming a
cartel gain at the expense of customers who are charged a high price for the
product. The cartel operates like a monopoly organization which maximizes the
joint profit of firms. Joint profits are generally more than the total profits earned
by them if they were to act independently.
Difficulties of a Cartel
The above analysis is based on perfect collusion in which all firms
relinquish their individual price-output decisions to a central board of the cartel
which acts like a multi-plant monopolist. But this is only a theoretical
possibility in the short-run because in practice the joint profit maximization
objective cannot be achieved by a cartel. In the long-run, there are a number of
difficulties faced by a cartel which tend to break it down. They are as under :
(i)
It is difficult to make an accurate estimate of the market demand curve.
Each firm thinks that its own demand curve is more elastic than the market
demand curve because its product is a perfect substitute for the product of its
rivals. Thus if the market demand curve is underestimated so will be its
corresponding MR curve which will make the estimation of the market price
inaccurate by the cartel.
(ii)
Similarly, the estimation of the market MC curve may be inaccurate
because of the supply of wrong data about their MC by individual firms to the
cartel. There is every possibility that the individual firms may supply low-cost
data to the central cartel board in order to have a larger share of output and
profits. This may ultimately lead to the break down of the cartel.
(iii)
The formation of a cartel is a slow process which takes a long time for
the agreement to arrive at by firms especially if their number is very large. In
the meantime, there may be changes in the cost structure and market demand
for the product. This renders the cartel agreement useless and it breaks down
soon.
(iv) If a firm’s product is preferred more by consumers than that of the other
members of the cartel, the market demand for it may be higher than the quota
fixed by the cartel. It may, therefore, secretly sell more than its quota and if
followed by other firms, the cartel will break down.
(v)
The larger the number of firms in a cartel, the less are its chances of
survival for long because of the distrust, threatening and bargaining resorted to
by them. The cartel will, therefore, break down.
(vi) When a cartel raises the price of the product and increases the profits of
its members, it creates an incentive for new firms to enter the industry. Even if
the entry of new firms is blocked, it is only a short-run phenomenon because
the success of the cartel will lead to the entry of firms in the long-run. This will
force the cartel to break down. It the new firms are allowed to enter the cartel, it
will become unmanageable, increase the defectors and brings its end.
Thus the chances are greater for individual firms to leave the cartel on
account of personal bickerings and antagonism of member firms over allotment
of qU0tas and division of profits which are likely to affect adversely joint profit
maximization and end the cartel agreement.
Besides these problems in the working of a cartel, it is more difficult to
form and run a cartel for long in the case of a differentiated product than in the
case of a homogeneous product. For, it is not possible to rationalize and sort out
the differences in the qualities of the product.
(ii)
Market-Sharing Cartel
Another type of perfect collusion in an oligopolistic market is found in
practice which relates to market-sharing by the member firms of a cartel. The
firms enter into a market-sharing agreement to form a cartel but keep a
considerable degree of freedom concerning the style of their output, their
selling activities and other decisions. There are two main methods of marketsharing : (a) non-price competition; and (b) quota system. They are discussed as
under :
(a)
Non-Price Competition Cartel : The non-price competition agreement
among oligopolistic firms is a loose form of cartel. Under this type of cartel, the
low cost firms press for a low price and the high cost firms for a high price. But
ultimately, they agree upon a common price below which they will not sell.
Such a price must allow them some profits. The firms can compete with one
another on a non-price basis by varying the colour, design, shape, packing, etc.
of their product and having their own different advertising and other selling
activities. Thus each firm shares the market on a non-price basis while selling
the product at the agreed common price.
This type of cartel is inherently unstable because if one low-cost firm
cheats the other firms by charging a lower price than the common price, it will
attract the customers of other member firms and earn larger profits. When other
firms come to know of this, they will leave the cartel. A price war will start and
ultimately the lowest-cost firm will remain in the industry.
In case the cost curves of the firms forming a cartel differ, the low-cost
firms may not stick to the common price. They may try to increase their share
of the market by means of secret price concessions. They may also resort to
better sales promotion methods. Such policies tend to change their demand-cost
conditions further. Consequently, price variations among firms become more
common. Ultimately, the cartel agreement becomes a farce and a price war
starts. This leads to be breaking up of the cartel agreement.
(b)
Market Sharing by Quota Agreement : The second method of market
sharing is the quota agreement among firms. All firms in an oligopolistic
industry enter into a collusion for charging an agreed uniform price. But the
main agreement relates to the sharing of the market equally among member
firms so that each firm gets profits on its sales.
Its Assumptions
This analysis is based on the following assumptions :
(i)
There are only two firms that enter into market-sharing agreement on the
basis of the quota system.
(ii)
Each firm produces and sells a homogeneous product which is a perfect
substitute for each other.
(iii)
The number of buyers is large.
(iv)
The cost curves of the two firms arc identical.
(v)
Both firms share the market equally.
(vi)
Each sells the product at the agreed uniform price.
(vii)
There is not threat of entry by new firms.
Market-Sharing Solution
Given these assumptions, he equal market sharing between the two firms
is explained in terms of Figure (10.6) where D is the market demand curve and
d/MR is its corresponding MR curve SMC is the aggregate MC curve of the
industry. The SMC curve intersects the d/MR curve at point E which
determines QA (=OP) price and total output OQ for the industry. This is the
monopoly solution in the market-sharing cartel.
Figure 1 0.6
How will the industry output be shared equally between the two firms?
Now assume that the d/MR is the demand curve of each firm and mr is its
corresponding MR curve. AC and MC are their identical cost curves. The MC
curve intersects the mr curve at point e so that the profit maximization output of
each firm is Oq. Since the total output of the industry is OQ which is equal to 2
× Oq = (OQ = 20q), it is equally shared by the two firms as per the quota
agreement between them. Thus each sells Oq output at the same price qB (OP)
and earns RP per unit profit. The total profit earned by each firm is RP × Oq
and by both is RP × 20q or RP × OQ.
However, in actuality, there are more than two firms in an oligopolistic
industry which do not share the market equally. Moreover, their cost curves are
also not identical. In case their cost curves differ, their market shares will also
differ. Each firm will charge an independent price in accordance with its own
MC and MR curves. They may not sell the same quantity at the agreed common
price. They may be charging a price slightly above or below the profit
maximization price depending upon its cost conditions. But each will try to be
nearest the profit maximization price. This will ultimately lead to the breaking
up of the market sharing agreement.
We may conclude that collusive oligopoly pricing has not any set pattern
of price behaviour. The resultant price and output will depend upon the reaction
of the collusive oligopolists towards the profit maximization price and their
attitude towards the existing and potential rivals.
(iii)
Price Leadership
Price leadership is imperfect collusion among the oligopolistic firms in
an industry when all firms follow the lead of one big firm.
There is a tacit agreement among the firms to sell the product at a price
set by the leader of the industry. Sometimes there is a formal meeting and a
definite agreement with the leader-firm. If the products are homogeneous, a
uniform price is established. In case of a differentiated product also prices can
be uniform. Whatever price changes take place the leader announces from time
to time, and the other firms follow him.
Price leadership is of various types. But there are three most common
price leadership models which we discuss now.
(a)
The Low-Cost Price Leadership Model
In the low-cost price leadership model, an oligopolistic firm having
lower costs than the other firms sets a lower price which the other firms have to
follow. Thus the low-cost firm becomes the price leader. Maruti Car, Bajaj
Scooter are prominent example of this type in India.
Its Assumptions
The low-cost firm model is based on the following assumptions :
(i)
There are two firms A and B.
(ii)
Their costs differ. A is the low-cost firm and B is the high-cost firm.
(iii)
They have identical demand and MR curves. The demand curve faced by
them is 1/2 of the market demand curve.
(iv)
The number of buyers is large.
(v)
The market industry demand curve for the product is known to both the
firms.
The Model
Given these assumptions, both firms enter into a tacit agreement whereby the
high-cost firm B will follow the price set by the price leader firm A and to share
the market equally. The price policy to be followed by both is illustrated in.
Figure (10.7). D is the industry demand curve and d/MR is its corresponding
marginal revenue curve which is the demand curve for both the firms and mr is
their marginal revenue curve. The cost curves of the low-cost firm A are AC
and MC and of the high cost firm B are ABa and MCb.
Figure 10.7
If the two firms were to act independently, the high cost firm B would
charge OP price per unit and sell OQb quantity, as determined by point B where
its MCb curve cuts the mr curve. Similarly, the low-cost firm A would charge
OP1 price per unit and sell OQa quantity, as determined by point A where its
MC a curve cuts the mr curve. As there is a tacit agreement between the two
firms, the high-cost firm B has no choice but to follow the price leader firm A.
It will, therefore, sell OQ quantity at a lower price OP1 even though it will not
be earning maximum profits. Oil the other hand, the price leader A will earn
much higher profits at OP1 price by selling OQa quantity. Since both A and B
sell the same quantity OQa the total market demand OQ is equally divided
between the two, OQ = 20Qa. But if firm B sticks to OP price, its sales will be
zero because the product being homogeneous, all its customers will shift to firm
A.
The price-leader firm A can, however, drive firm Bout of the market by
setting a lower price than OP1, lower than the average cost ACb of firm B. Firm
A :would become a monopoly firm. But in such a situation it will have to face
legal problems. Therefore, it will be in its interest to fix OP1 price and tolerate
firm B in order to share the market equally and maximize its profits.
(b)
The Dominant Firm Price Leadership Model
This is a typical case of price leadership where there is one large
dominant firm and a number of small firms in the industry. The dominant firm
fixes the price for the entire industry and the small firms sell as much product
as they like and the remaining market is filled by the dominate firm itself.
It will, therefore, select that price which brings more profits to itself.
BSNL, SAIL can be taken as dominant price leader.
Its Assumptions
This model is based on the following assumptions :
(i)
The oligopolistic industry consists of a large dominant firm and a
number of small firms.
(ii)
The dominant firm sets the market price.
(iii)
The dominant firm sets in a position to predict the supplies of other firms
at each price set by it.
The Model
Given these assumptions, when each firm sells its product at the price set
by the dominant firm, its demand curve is perfectly elastic at that price. Thus its
marginal revenue curve coincides with the horizontal demand curve. The firm
will produce that output at which its marginal cost equals marginal revenue.
The MC curves of all the small firms combined laterally establish their
aggregate supply curve. All these firms behave competitively while the
dominant firm behaves passively. It fixes the price and allows the small firms to
sell all they wish at that price.
The case of price leadership by the dominant firm is explained in terms
of Figure (10.8) where DD1 is the market demand curve. SMCs is the aggregate
supply curve of all the small firms. By subtracting SMCs from DD1 at each
price, we get the demand curve faced by the dominant firm, PNMBD1 which
can be drawn as follows. Suppose the dominant firm sets the price OP. At this
price, it allows the small firms to meet the entire market demand by supplying
PS quantity. But the dominant firm would supply nothing at the price OP. Point
P is, therefore, the starting point of its demand curve. Now take a price OP1 less
than OP. The small firms would supply P1C (=OQ1) output at this price OP1
when their SMCs curve cuts their horizontal demand curve P1R at point C.
Since the total quantity demanded at OP1 price is P1R (=OQ) and the small
firms supply PIC quantity, CR (=Q1Q) quantity would be supplied by the
dominant firm. By taking P1N = CR on the horizontal line P1R, the dominant
firm’s supply becomes P1N (=OQd). Thus we derive point N on the dominant
firm’s demand curve by subtracting the horizontal distance from point P1 to N
from the demand curve DD1. Since the small firms supply nothing at prices
below OP2 because their SMCs curve exceeds this price, the dominant firm’s
demand curve coincides with the horizontal line P2B over the range MB and
then with the market demand curve over the segment BD1. Thus the dominant
firm’s demand curve is PNMBD1.
Figure 10.8
The dominant firm will maximize its profits at that output where its
marginal cost curve MCd cuts its MRd, the marginal revenue curve. It
establishes the equilibrium point E at which the dominant firm sells OQd output
at OP1 price. The small firms will sell OQs output at this price for SMCs, the
marginal cost curve of the small firms equals the horizontal price line PIR at C.
The total output of the industry will be OQ = OQd + OQs. If OP2 price is set by
the dominant firm, the small firms would sell P2A and the dominant firm AB. In
case a price below OP2 is set the dominant firm would meet the entire industry
demand and the sales of the small firms would be zero. The above analysis
shows that the price-quantity solution is stable because the small firms behave
passively as price-takers.
But this does not mean that the dominant firm charges the same price
that is charged by a monopolist operating in the same market. As observed by
Professor Markham : “The rationale of price making by the dominant or partial
monopolist differs but little from that employed by the pure monopolist. They
both, presumably, have complete control over prices, but the partial monopolist,
unlike the pure monopolist, must take account of the quantity that the
competitive sector of the industry will offer at any price he may set”.
However, the real test of a dominant firm’s price leadership is the extent
to which the other firms follow its lead. The moment the firms cease to follow
the price leader, the model breaks down. Besides, if the other firms have
different cost curves the same price may not maximize short-run profits for all
the firms.
The dominant-firm model of price leadership can have a number of
variations. There may be two or more large firms among a number of small
firms which may enter into a collusion for sharing the market at various prices.
There may be product differentiation. Nevertheless, the conclusions arrived at
help to explain price-output policies in all such situations.
(c)
The Barometric Price Leadership Model
The barometric price leadership is that in which there is no leader firm as
such but one firm among the oligoplistic firms with the reputed management
which announces a price change first which is followed by other firms in the
industry. The barometric price leader may not be the dominant firm with the
lowest cost or even the largest firm in the industry. It is a firm which acts like a
barometer in forecasting changes in cost and demand conditions in the industry
and economic conditions in the economy as a whole. On the basis of a formal or
informal tacit agreement, the other firms in the industry accept such a firm as
the leader and follow it in making price changes for the product. Newspaper
and hotels industry in India can be taken as examples under this category.
The barometric price leadership develops due to the following reasons :
(i)
As a reaction to the earlier experience of violent price change and cutthroat competition among oligopolistic firms, they accept one firm as the
price leader.
(ii)
Most firms do not possess the expertise to calculate cost and demand
conditions of the industry. So they leave their estimation to one leader
firm which has the ability to do so.
(iii)
Oligopolistic firms accept one among them as the barometric leader firm
which possesses better knowledge and predictive power about changes in
direct costs or style and quality changes and changes in the economic
conditions as a whole.
Exercises
1.
Explain with diagrams the main characteristics of an oligopolistic market
and equilibrium of a firm facing kinked demand curve.
2.
Some economists have argued that the demand curve facing an
oligopolist must have a kink in it. Discuss their reasons. Show in a
diagram the kinky demand curve and, the equilibrium of a firm facing
such a curve.
3.
Explain price and output determination under price leadership by a
dominant firm.
4.
Explain price determination under conditions of price leadership in an
oligopolistic market.
5.
Define a cartel. How cartel maximizes joint profits? Explain the factors
which lead to the breakup of cartel.
6.
Explain the characteristic features of the Cqurnot model of duopoly.
What are its limitations?
7.
Write notes on : Market-sharing Cartel, Barometric Price Leadership,
Chamberlin’s Duopoly Model.
Lesson - 11
Price Determination Under Monopoly, Monopolistic
Competition and Discriminating Monopoly
(Author :N.K. Bishnoi)
Analysis of the working of a competitive system was the main task done
by the classisia1economists such as Adam smith, David Ricardo and J.S. Mill.
Considering the earlier views, later economists of the 19th century developed
the ‘ideal’ system of perfect competition. Many economists, since the time of
Adam smith, where more interested in theoretical perfections than in the actual
development of the capitalist system. They tried to explain the meaning of an
economic system based on the model of perfect competition. According to them
perfect competition would mean
(i)
Production at minimum possible cost
(ii)
Consumer satisfaction at its maximum
But in real word we hardly come across such a system of perfect
competition. The exception to perfect competition which attracted serious
attention during the 19th century was the concept of monopoly. This is in fact,
the antithesis of perfect competition.
Monopoly market is one in which there is only one seller of the product
having no close substitutes. The cross elasticity of demand of a monopolised
product is either zero or negative. There being only one firm, producing that
product, there is no difference between the firm and industry in case of
monopoly. Monopoly is a price maker not the price taker.
In the words of koutsoyiannis, “Monopoly is a market situation in which
there is a single seller, there are no close substitutes for commodity it produced
there are barriers to entry of other firms”.
Features of Monopoly
Following are the features of monopoly :
(i)
One seller of the product: In case of monopoly there is only one seller of
product. He may be sole proprietor or a partnership firm or a joint stock
company or a state enterprise. There is no difference between firm and
industry. The firm is a price maker and not price taker.
(ii)
No close substitute : The commodity which the monopolist produces has
no close substitutes. Lack of substitutes means no other firm in the
market is producing same type of commodity.
(iii)
Restriction no the entry of the new firm : There are powerful restrictions
to the entry of new firms in the industry, under the Monopoly.
Revenue and cost curves under Monopoly
A monopoly firm face a downward sloping demand curve, unlike a
competitive firm, a monopolist can reduce the price and sell more. In a
monopoly situation, there is no difference between firm and industry.
Accordingly, under monopoly firm’s demand or average revenue curve (AR)
and marginal revenue (MR) curves are separate from each other Both are down
word sloping from left to right.
Fig. 1 Shows AR and MR curves under monopoly.
Under monopoly, shape of different cost curves is exactly like under
perfect competition. Both AC and MC curves, will be U-shaped on account of
law of variable proportions.
Price and Output Determination
In case of monopoly, one can know about price determination or
equilibrium position with the help of marginal revenue and marginal cost
analysis. According to this analysis, a monopolist will be in equilibrium when
two conditions are fulfilled.
(i)
MC = MR and
(ii)
MC curve cuts MR curve from below.
Study of price and equilibrium determination under monopoly is
conducted in two time periods.
(i)
Short Period and
(ii)
Long Period
Price Determination under Short Period or Short Run Equilibrium :
In the short run, a monopolist has to work with a given existing plant. He
can expand or contract output by varying the amount of variable factors. He
cannot adjust the size of plant in the short run.
A monopolist in equilibrium may face three situations in the short run
(1)
Excess Profit
(2)
Normal Profit
(3)
Minimum Losses
The process of price determination under monopoly has been explained
as follows : (i) Super Normal Profit
If the price (AR) fixed by monopolist in equilibrium is more than
Fig.2
the average cost (AC) than he will earn excess profits.
The revenue and cost conditions faced by monopolist firm are presented
in the Fig. 2.
AR and MR are the average and marginal revenue curves of the firm
respectively. SAC and SMC are the short run average cost and marginal cost
curves of the firm, respectively. To maximise profits, the monopolist firm
chooses a price and output combination for which SMC = MR, and SMC curve
cuts MR from below. As shown in the fig.2, E is the equilibrium where
monopolist SMC curve cuts MR curve from below. A perpendicular parallel to
y-axis is drawn at point E connecting the x-axis at Q and the demand curve at
A. OQ is the equilibrium output. AQ is the equilibrium price, because the price
is determined by demand curve or average revenue curve. The average cost is
BQ, because line AQ cuts SAC curve at point B. Thus the monopolist’s per unit
excess profit is AB, which is the difference between the price (AQ) and the
corresponding average cost of production (BQ) The ABPPI represent total
monopolist’s profit. The total profit of the monopolist will be maximum only at
OQ level of output.
Normal Profit
In the short period it is possible that monopolist may earn normal profit.
This happens only when the average cost curve of the monopolist is tangent to
its average revenue curve.
Fig.3
In fig.3 the monopolist is the equilibrium at OQ level of output, because
at this level of output his marginal cost curve (SMC) cuts MR curve at point E.
Also at same level of output (OQ) the monopolist SAC curve touches his AR
curve at point A. Thus AQ or OP is the monopolist price (which is determined
by AR curves) is also equal to the cost per unit (AQ). The monopolist will earn
only normal profit and the normal profit is included in the average cost of
production.
Loss Minimization in the Short Period
In the short run, the monopolist may incur losses also. The monopolist
may continue his production so long as price of his product is high enough to
cover his average variable cost. If the price falls below average variable cost,
the monopolist prefers to stop production. Accordingly, a monopolist in
equilibrium, in the short run, may bear minimum losses equivalent to fixed
costs. The situation of minimum losses has been illustrated in the fig. 4.
Fig. 4
The monopolist is in equilibrium at point E, where SMC = MR and SMC
curve cuts MR curve below. OQ is the equilibrium level of output.
The price of equilibrium output OQ is fixed at BQ or OP.
At this price, average variable cost (AVC) curve AR curve at point B. It
means firm will set at only average variable cost from the prevailing price. The
firm will bear the loss of fixed cost equivalent to AB per unit. The firm will
bear total loss equivalent to ABPP1. If its price falls below (BQ) the monopolist
will prefer to stop the production. The point B is also known as ‘shut-down
point’.
From the above analysis of short run price and output equilibrium it may
be content that profit maximisation or loss minimization or attainment of
normal profit will be accomplished only at that level of output at which
marginal cost is equal to marginal revenue and marginal cost cuts MR curve
from below.
Price Determination under long - Run
In the long run the monopolist has the time to expand his size of the
plant, or to use his existing plant at any level which will maximise his profit.
With entry blocked, however, it is not necessary for the monopolist to reach an
optimal scale, what is certain is that the monopolist will not stay in business, if
he makes losses in the long run. However, the size of his plant and the degree of
utilisaion of any given plant size depends entirely on the market demand. After
these adjustments are completed, the monopoly rum will have a long run
equilibrium determined by the equality of long run marginal cost and marginal
revenue as shown in fig. 5.
E is the equilibrium point of the monopolist firm. Corresponding to this
equilibrium point, OQ is the equilibrium level of output. The monopoly will fix
price AQ in the long run. Average cost is BQ. Profit per unit is AB. Total profit
is equal to ABPP1.
It may be noted that there is always a tendency for the monopolist firm
to secure excess profits, even in the long run, since entry into the industry is
prohibited.
Price Determination under Monopolistic Competition
Monopoly and perfect competition are really two extremes, and many
industries fall in between. There are very few pure monopolies, since there are
very few commodities for which close substitute does not exist. Similarly, there
are very few commodities that are entirely homogenous to make the assumption
of perfect competition realistic. There is, thus, a large grey area between these
two extremes. Although the French Economist Cournot pointed this out in
1838, it was in the early 1930s that economist began turning their attention to
the middle ground between monopoly and perfect competition. In 1933, Edwin
H. Chamberlin of Harvard University published the book, “The Theory of
monopolistic Competition : A Re-orientation of the Theory of Value”. It was
received very enthusiastically and many economist talked of the “Chamberlin
Revolution”. In the same year, but six months later, Joan Robinson of
Cambridge University in England published a similar book titled “The
Economics of imperfect Competition.” Although there are similarities in the
books, there are major differences as well. For instance, Chamberlin treated at
length product differentiation and advertising, which were neglected by Joan
Robinson. Joan Robinson discussed problems such as price discrimination,
monopolistic and monopsonistic exploitation not covered by Chamberlin. We
shall start our discussion by defining monopolistic competition. Monopolistic
competition is said to exist when there are many firms, as in perfect
competition, but each firm produces a product that is slightly differentiated
from that of others. Examples of these are numerous such as retail clothing
stores, restaurants, barber shops etc. There are several distinguishing
characteristics of monopolistic competition.
(i)
Product differentiation : The products are heterogeneous rather than
homogenous. However, products are only differentiated. The output of one firm
is close (but not perfect) substitute of the output of other firms. Differentiation
grants each firm some monopoly power. Whereas the presence of close
substitutes provides competition. There are many sources of differentiation.
Some of these are : Chemical composition, advertising, packaging, brand
names, location and design.
(ii)
Non price competition : Since the products are slightly differentiated,
the different firms try to play up the difference in their products in order to
increase their demand. They do this in a variety of ways such as advertising the
differences or adding same frills. Take for instance, firms producing washing
powder, ‘Surf and Det’. With one pack of surf: the company gives a free gift of
one glass-tumbler.
Short Run Equilibrium of the Firm lU!der ~onopolistic Competition
Short run equilibrium of a monopolistic competitive firm is very similar
to that of monopoly find. Only difference is that find under monopolistic
competition produces differentiated products, have some degree of monopoly
power. The demand curve facing the monopolistic firm is more elastic. The
firm is in equilibrium when
i)
MC = MR and
ii)
MC curve cuts MR from below
The amount of profit earned by the firm in equilibrium, in Short run,
depends on demand of the product and the efficiency of the find. The firm may
face any of the three situations in this period i.e. excess profit, normal Profit
and minimum losses.
The short run equilibrium of a firm under the monopolistic competition
is explained with the help of following diagrams.
Excess Profit
When the price is more than average cost, the firm under the
monopolistic competition will earn excess profit. In the fig. 6 equilibrium is at
point E.
Where MC = MR and OQ is the equilibrium level of output, at which
price is Q or OP, because A is a point on AR, and average cost is BQ (B is on
SAC curve). Therefore, AB is the excess profit per unit of output. The excess
profit will be measured by the area of rectangle ABPP1 i.e. output multiplied by
excess profit per unit of output.
Fig. 6
Long Run Equilibrium of the Firm
Long run refers to that time period in which production capacity of each
firm can be changed as required. Firm can change the size of the plant. New
firms can enter in the group and old firms can leave it. In the long run the firm
in the group earns only normal profit. In long run no firm can bear losses. In
short run if firms are earning profits, then in long run new firm will enter in the
group. With the entry of new firms, supply will increase and share of each firm
in the total output will decline. AR and MR curves of each firm will shift to left
of original AR and MR curves. Each firm uses various devices including those
of publicity and advertisement to change the shape of demand curves.
Equilibrium under condition of the entry of new firms
In the long run new firm can enter in the group. The equilibrium output
and price of firm can be explained with the help of fig. 7. LAC
Fig. 7
and LMC are long run average and marginal cost curves of the firm. Ar2 and
MR2 are the original average and marginal revenue curves of the firms. In the
short run, E2 is the equilibrium point. Firm’s equilibrium output is OQ2 and
average revenue or price is OP2 ( = EQ2). Average cost is BQ2. Profit per unit is
EB.
New firms will enter in the group due to supernormal profit. With the
entry of new firm in the group, production will increase, but contribution of
each firm in the total supply decreases. Average revenue curves become AR1
and marginal revenue MR1. Firms will be in equilibrium at point E. Long run
average cost curve (LAC) is tangent to AR1 curve at OQ1 level of output. Firm
will get only normal profits. Because firms average revenue AQ (=OP1)
becomes equal to average cost AQ1 (=OP1). Thus, in long run, the firms in the
group will be in equilibrium when all the firms in group earn only normal
profit. No new firm will enter in the group. Thus the long run equilibrium
indicates the blend of competition and monopoly.
Selling Cost
Unlike a perfectly competitive firm, in order to increase the sale of the
product the monopolist has to undertake huge advertising campaigns. In perfect
competitions, product manufactured by different firms are homogenous, there
must be uniformity of price. But in case of monopolistic competition, product
differentiation is the common feature and for this reason selling cost would be
crucial.
According to Chamberlin, “Selling costs are those costs which are to be
incured in order 10 alter the position or shape of the demand curve for a
product.” In words of Cairn cross, “Selling costsinc1ude all expenditure
designed to create, increase or maintain me demand for a firms output.
Difference Between Selling Cost and Production Cost
Production costs are those costs which are incured to produce the
particular quantity of output. These costs include expenditure purchase of raw
material, energy, packaging etc. Thus, the production costs are incured in order
to create utility, whereas, selling costs are outlay made in order to secure a
demand for the product.
In words of Cairn cross, “Production costs have no influence on demand,
whereas, selling costs are incured in order to influence demand. According to
Chamberlin, “Those costs which are incured to adapt the product to the demand
are production cost, while those which adapt the demand to production are
selling cost.
Effect of Selling Costs on Price Determination under Monopolistic
Competition
Under monopolistic competition, selling costs increase demand for the
product as well as the cost of production. The main objectives the firm is to
maximise the profit. When the firm incurs an expenditure on selling costs, there
will be shift of its demand and cost curves. The firm will continue to incur
expenditure on advertisement, so long as, revenue earned is more than or equal
to cost of advertisement. The equilibrium of the firm under the selling cost has
been explained with the help of fig. 8.
Fig. 8
Suppose the firm incurs Rs.5000/-, Rs.6000/- and Rs.7000/-in the form
of selling cost. In such situation, the firm will have three average production
costs (APC) and demand curves. With increase in selling costs, demand curve
of the firm will shift to right. The firm price and output equilibrium have been
explained in the Fig. 8.
Suppose, the firm incurs selling cost Rs.5000/- initially. Then, APC1 and
D1D1 are the firm’s average production cost curve and demand curve
respectively. OM1 and OP1 is the equilibrium output and price of the firm
respectively.
The firm earns supernormal profit equivalent to area A1B1P1L1. If the
firm incurs Rs.6000/- as selling costs the demand curve of the firm shift to right
of average demand curve (D1D1). The new demand curve of the firm will be
D2D2 and average production cost curve of the firm will shift upwards to APC2.
OP2 and OQ2 will be the firm’s equilibrium output and price respectively. The
firm will earn supernormal profit equivalent to area A2B2P2L2. If firm incurs
more incurs more expenditure on selling costs i.e. Rs.7000/-, then D3D3 and
APC3 will be firms new demand and average production cost curves
respectively. OP3 and OM3 will be equilibrium price and output of the firm
respectively. The firm will earn supernormal profits equivalent to A3B3P3L3.
This process will continue till revenue earned by the firm is greater than or
equivalent to expenditure incured on advertisement.
Discriminating Monopoly
Price discrimination exists when the same product is sold at different
prices to different buyers. The cost of production is either the same or it differs
but not as much as the difference in the charged price. The product is basically
same, it may have slight difference. (For example, different binding of same
book; different location of seats in a theatre; different seats in an aircraft or a
train, etc.). Here, we will concentrate on the typical case of an identical product,
produced at the same cost, which is sold at different prices, depending on the
preference of the buyers, income, location and the ease of availability of
substitutes. These factors give rise to demand curves with different elasticities
in the various sectors of the market of a firm. It is also common to charge
different prices for the same product at different time periods. The necessary
conditions, which must be fulfilled for the implementation of price
discrimination are the following :
i)
The market must be divided into submarkets with different price
elasticities.
ii)
There must be effective separations of the sub-markets, so that no
reselling can take place from a low-price market to a high price market.
These conditions show why price discrimination is easier to apply with
commodities like electricity, and services (Like service of a doctor etc.), which
are consumed by buyer and cannot be resold.
Degrees of Price Discrimination
i)
Discrimination of first degree : In first degree price discrimination the
monopolist charge different prices for every unit of commodity. It means he
charges the price accordingly, to extract entire amount of consumers surplus.
Mrs. Joan Robinson refers to this kind of discrimination as Perfect
Discrimination.
ii)
Second degree price discrimination : In Second degree price
discrimination the monopolist charges different prices for a specific quantity or
block of output. It means monopolist will sell one block of product at one price
and another block at lower price. Second degree price discrimination is more
common than first degree price discrimination.
iii)
Third
degree
price
discrimination
:
In
third
degree
price
discrimination the price charged by monopolist is different in different market
of same commodity. The division of whole market into the two or more than
two sub-markets is essential for third degree price discrimination. The third
degree price discrimination is most common in practice.
Technique of Price Discrimination
The reason for a monopolist to apply price discrimination is to obtain an
increase in the total revenue and his profits.
We will start from the simplest case of a monopolist who sells his
product at two different markets. It is assumed that the monopolist will sell this
product in two segregated markets. Each of them having a demand curve with
different elasticities. Let us assume there are two markets A and B. In the
market A demand for the product is less elastic while in market B, it is more
elastic. This process has been explained in the fig. 9. AR1 and MR1 are average
and marginal revenue curve of market A. AR2 and MR2 are the average and
margined revenue curves of market B. CMR is the combined marginal revenue
(CMR) of market A and B. It is derived by lateral summation of MR curves of
market A and B. It has a kink ‘K’ due to differences in elasticities of demand of
both markets. MC is the marginal cost curve of monopolist. The condition of
equilibrium of discriminating monopolist is MC = CMR = MR1 = MR2.
E is the equilibrium point where MC curve cuts combined marginal
revenue (CMR) curve. At that Point (i.e. E) a horizontal straight line parallel to
the X-axis is drawn to figs. 9(a) and 9(b). At points B1 and A1, MR1 and MR2
becomes equal to MC. By dropping perpendicular from point B1 and A1
connecting the X-axis and the respective demand curves, the prices in the two
markets are found out :
Market A
Market B
Aggregate
Price
OP
OP1
-
Quantity
OB
OA
OQ = (OB + OA)
The price in the first market A is higher than the price in the market B.
We do not calculate any price in Fig. C. as there is no aggregate price. Thus, in
the technique of price discrimination the prices should be determined ill such a
way that MR in the different markets is equal to MC.
Dumping - A Special Case of Discrimination
Dumping means charging a higher price in the domestic market
Fig. 9
and lower price in the foreign market for the same product. For dumping, the
total market for the product is divided between domestic and foreign markets.
The necessary condition for dumping is that in the domestic market the demand
for the product is less elastic and more elastic in the foreign market. The
process has been explained in the fig. 10.
Fig. 10.
In the fig. ARd and MRd are the average and marginal revenue curves for
the domestic market. ARf and MRf are the average and marginal revenue curve
for the foreign market. ARd and MRd are downward sloping average revenue
and marginal revenue curves in the domestic market. ARf and MRf are average
revenue and marginal revenue curves in the foreign market and are parallel to
X-axis. Reason being, in the former case producer has a monopoly and in the
latter case he faces perfect competition like situation in the foreign market.
Aggregate marginal revenue curve (ARED) is obtained by adding the marginal
revenue curves of domestic and foreign market. MC curve represents marginal
cost curve of monopolist total output. The marginal cost curve cuts combine
marginal revenue curve (ARED) at point E. OQ is the equilibrium output. Now
the total output is distributed between domestic and foreign market in such a
way that marginal revenue of both markets should not only be equal to each
other but equal to its marginal cost also. It is vivid from the fig., when amount
OM is sold in the domestic market, marginal revenue MR is equal to marginal
cost QE. Thus, out of total output OQ, OM will be sold in the domestic market.
In the domestic market, OP1 price will be charged. MQ output will be sold in
the foreign market at OP price. Thus area TERA is the total profit earned by the
monopolist. Thus, monopolist will maximize his profit by charging higher price
in the domestic market and lower price in the foreign market.
Comparison Between Monopoly and Perfect Competition
There are certain similarities and dissimilarities between monopoly and
perfect competition which are as follows :
1.
Similarities :
(i)
Main objective of the firm in both these market is to earn maximum
profit.
(ii)
Condition of equilibrium of the firm in both the markets are similar i.e.
MC = MR, MC curve cuts MR curve from below.
2.
Dissimilarities
(i)
Nature of average and marginal revenue curves : Under perfect
competition there are large number of firms selling homogenous products. The
price of the product is determined by the industry. The firm is a price taker and
not the price maker. Demand or average revenue curve is a horizonta1line
parallel to X-axis. As the price of the product is constant, marginal revenue
coincides with average revenue. On the contrary, in case of monopoly there is
only single firm of the product. There is no difference between firm and
industry under monopoly. The firm is a price maker. In order to sell more he
will have to reduced the price of the commodity. That is why average revenue
curve is negatively sloped. When average revenue curve is negatively sloped
the marginal revenue curve will also be negative.
(ii)
Entry of firms : Under perfect competition the new firms can enter the
industry and existing firms can leave the industry. But in case of monopoly it is
not possible due to certain obstacles for the firm to enter in the market.
(iii) Price discrimination : Under monopoly price discrimination is feasible
but it is not so under perfect competition.
(iv) Long run output and price : Output under perfect competition is more
as compared to that under monopoly. The reason being, under perfect
competition production is being done at the minimuin of long run average cost
curve. But in case of monopoly production is being on the downward sloping
part of long run average cost curve. In the long run, firm under perfect
competition earns only normal profit, where as firm under monopoly always
earns supernormal profit.
(v)
Consumer welfare : Production under perfect competition causes an
increase in consumer welfare. The reason being, under perfect competition
more quantity is produced at less cost and sold at less price. In contrast, during
monopoly the price of the commodity is higher due to low production and high
cost.
Comparison Between Monopoly and Monopolistic Competition
There are certain similarities and dissimilarities between monopoly and
monopolistic competition which are as follows :
1.
Similarities
(i)
Condition of equilibrium : in both the situations, firm will be in
equilibrium when following two conditions are fulfilled i.e. MC = MR
and MC curve cuts MR curve from below.
(ii)
Under utilization of capacity : In both the situations production
capacity is not being fully utilized. The reason being, the demand curve
is not tangent to long run average cost curve at its minimum points.
2.
Dissimilarities
(i)
Number of firms under monopoly : There is only one firm, whereas
there are a large number of firms under monopolistic conditions.
(ii)
Nature of commodity : All the units of commodity produced by firm
under monopoly is homogenous, whereas, it is not so in case of firm
working under monopolistic competition.
(iii)
Elasticity of demand : The demand curve is more elastic under
monopolistic competition, whereas, it is not so under monopoly. The
reason being, substitutes of the commodity are available in the former
case and in the latter case substitutes are not available.
(iv)
Nature of profit : In the long run, firm working under monopoly will
always get that under monopoly. The reason being, under perfect
competition production is being done at the minimum of long run
average cost curve. But in case of monopoly production is being on the
downward sloping part of long run average cost curve. In the long run,
firm under perfect competition earns only normal profit, where as firm
under monopoly always earns supernormal profit.
(v)
Consumer Welfare : Production under perfect competition causes an
increase in consumer welfare. The reason being, under perfect
competition more quantity is produced at less cost and sold at less price.
In contrast, during monopoly the price of the commodity is higher due to
low production and high cost.
Comparison Between Monopoly and Monopolistic Competition
There are certain similarities and dissimilarities between monopoly and
monopolistic competition which are as follows :
1.
Similarities
(i)
Condition of equilibrium : In both the situations, firm will be in
equilibrium when following two conditions are fulfilled i.e. MC = MR
and MC curve cuts MR curve from below.
(ii)
Under utilization of capacity : In both the situations production
capacity is not being fully utilized. The reason being, the demand curve
is not tangent to long run average cost curve at its minimum points.
2.
Dissimilarities
(i)
Number of firms under monopoly : There is only one firm, whereas
there are a large number of firms under monopolistic conditions.
(ii)
Nature of commodity : All the units of commodity produced by firm
under monopoly is homogenous, whereas, it is not so in case of firm
working under monopolistic competition.
(iii)
Elasticity of demand : The demand curve is more elastic under
monopolistic competition, whereas, it is not so under monopoly. The
reason being, substitutes of the commodity.
(iv)
Nature of Profit : In the long run, firm working under monopoly will
always get supernormal profits and this supernormal profits disappear
under monopolistic competition. The reason being, in the latter case
large number of firms are producing the commodity having close
substitutes and there is free entry and exit of the firms.
(v)
Control overprice : Firm under monopolistic competition has to keep in
mind prices being charged by their rivals. If difference in prices are
substantial, the firm will not be able to retain their customers. However,
the monopolist can follow an independent price policy. The reason
being, entry of the firm is restricted under monopoly ,
(vi)
Price discrimination : The monopolist firm can follow the policy of
price discrimination due to inherent advantages associated with the firm.
But the firm under monopolistic competition can not do so due to large
number of sellers selling close substitute.
(vii)
Selling Cost : The monopolist has to incur huge expenditure on selling
cost in order to retain and attract new customers. But this type of
expenditure has no relevance under monopoly.
Important Questions
1.
Define monopoly. How is price and equilibrium output determined under
monopoly?
2.
Define price discrimination. How is the price and output determined
under discriminating monopoly?
3.
Write notes on :
(a)
Nature of AR and MR curves under monopoly.
(b)
Price determination under conditions of dumping.
4.
What is monopolistic competition? How is price determined under
monopolistic competition?
5.
What is difference between production costs and selling costs? How do
the selling costs affect he equilibrium output determination under
monopolistic competition.
6.
Write notes on :
(a)
Make a comparison between monopoly and monopolistic
competition.
(b)
Make a comparison between monopoly and perfect competition.
Selected References
1.
Alfred Marshall : Princip1es of Economics
2.
John Robinson : The Economics of Imerfect Competition.
3.
Edward H. Chamberlin : The Theory of Monopolistic Competition.
4.
G.J. Stigler : The Theory of Price.
Lesson - 12
WELFARE ECONOMICS
(Author : Ved Paul)
In previous chapters, the theoretical framework we have discussed
involves the efforts of individuals and firms to make themselves as well-off as
possible Individuals seek to attain the highest possible indifference curve and
firms seek the maximum possible profit. Their efforts constitute the reason why
trade take place. When a consumer purchases a good from a producer, each is
better off or at least not worse off, otherwise no trade would have occurred in
first place. The gain from trade is affect-ed by various changes in market
conditions like changes in taxes, price controls, subsidies, quotas, rationing etc.
Economics has different types of criteria to see who gains and who loses from
such policies and to evaluate the size of gains and losses.
1.
Measuring Gains from Trade
When a consumer buys a good from a producer, each one gains from the
trade. We measure this gain with the help of consumer surplus and producer
surplus.
1.1
Consumer Surplus : Suppose we have a consumer who wants to
purchase apples. Let this consumer is willing to pay Rs.20 for acquiring an
apple. The value of one apple to this particular consumer would be Rs.20. If the
consumer is willing to have two apples. For these two apples this consumer
wants to pay less than Rs.40. Because when he has only one apple, he uses it in
the way in which he would most like to use an apple, and uses the second apple
where he considers it to be of second most important use. In other words, the
marginal value of the second apple is somethings less than Rs.20, and so the
total value of the first two apples is something less than Rs.40. As the consumer
acquires more apples, their marginal value continues to decrease. Let us assume
that these marginal values are as given in table 1.
Table 1
Quantity
Total value
Marginal value
1
20
20
2
35
15
3
44
9
4
49
5
5
52
3
6
54
2
If, plot the marginal values of apples, then we well get a downward
sloping curve as shown in fig. (1).
Fig. 1
This figure may also be considered as demand curve of the apples for
this consumer. Now question arises how many apples a consumer will buy at a
particular market price. Suppose the market price of an apple is Rs.5/-. He will
certainly buy a first apple because he values it at Rs.20 and can get it for Rs.5.
He will also buy a second apple, which he values at Rs.15/- and can also get for
Rs.5/-. Similarly he will buy third and fourth. But he will not buy apples more
than four. The fifth apple provides only Rs.3 worth of additional value and
costs Rs.5/- to acquire, Likewise, sixth and more than it. Thus the number of
apples purchased by this particular consumer is 4. The consumer buys, apples
as long as the marginal value of an apple exceeds its price, and stops when the
two become equal.
Suppose this consumer purchases 4 apples. Thetota1 values of these
apples for this consumer is equal to sum of the marginal values of first four
apples i.e. Rs.49. It is shown in the following figure no. 2.
Fig. 2
Assuming that apples are fully divisible then the total value of the
consumer’s purchase is equal to the shaded area under the demand curve. But in
acquiring these four apples the consumer has paid only Rs.20 (Rs.5×4). The
difference between the total value of the apples he buys, minus what he actually
pays for them is called consumer surplus. It can be shown in fig. 3.
Fig. 3
Here total value of the consumer’s apples is equal to the entire shaded
area, at the cost to him of acquiring those apples is the area labeled A. The gain
to the consumer is the remainder, namely area B. Thus, consumer surplus is it
difference between what a consumer is willing to pay and what actually he pay
for a certain amount of a commodity.
1.2
The Producer Surplus : The producer supplies the goods to the
consumer. In this trade producer also gain. For calculating the gain of the
producer from trade, suppose there is a producer of apple. The marginal cost of
producing the apple for this producer is given in the table-11.
Table 11
Quantity
Marginal Cost
Total Cost
1
0.5
0.5
2
2.0
2.5
3
3.5
6.0
4
5.0
11.0
5
7.0
18.0
6
8.5
26.5
The Total cost of supplying, these six apples in the market in the sum of
the marginal cost of supplying first apple (Rs.5), the marginal cost of second
(Rs.2.5) and so on.
It can be shown with the help of following figure No. 4. Here it is
Fig. 4
assumed that there is prefect competition in the market. In this market structure,
marginal cost curve will work as market curve. In case our good is fully
divisible then the total cost of supplying the four apples in the market is area D
in the lower part of curve in the figure. If the market prices of one apple is Rs.5,
then the producer will supply only 4 apples in the market because the cost of
porduction of each apple next to four apples is more than Rs.5. The total
revenue for supplying 4 apples in the market for the producer is Rs.20. It is
equal to the area C + D in the figure no. 5.
Fig. 5
Here total revenue of the producer is C+D and his cost of production are
D. The difference, area C, is called the producer’s surplus and represents the
gain to the producer as a result of his participation in the market place. Thus,
the producer surplus is the difference between what the producer willing to
charge and what he actually charges for supplying the good in the market.
2.
Social Welfare
The sum of consumer’s surplus and producer’s surplus is called social
gain or welfare gain. The social welfare depends upon this social gain. In
economics there are different criteria for measuring the social welfare. These
criteria are related to the evaluation of different situations from the point of
view of society’s well being.
Some of these criteria are discussed below :
2.1
Growth of GNP (Gross National Product) as a criterion on welfare:
Adam Smith implicitly accepted that growth of gross national product as
a criterion for growth in welfare of the society. He believed that invisible hand
took an automatic care of accumulation of wealth and output on which social
welfare depended. It is held that economic growth resulted in the increase of
social welfare because growth increased employment and good available for
consumption to the community. As all individuals were capable of looking after
their respective individual interests and maximizing their satisfactions, and as
the society was just collection of individuals, the social welfare was
automatically taken care of and would be automatically maximized.
2.2
Betham’s Criterion : Jermy Betham, as English economist, argued that
welfare is improved when the greatest good secured for greatest number. It has
assured that welfare is the sum of the utilities of the individuals of the society.
To illustrate let us assume that the society consists of three individuals A, Band
C, that
DW = UA + UB + UC
Where Us are the utilities of respective individuals and W is the total welfare of
the society. According to Bentham DW > O if (DUA + DUB + DUC) > 0, Hence,
D stands for change.
2.3
Pigou’s Criterion : According to A.C. Pigou “Economic Welfare is that
part of general (social) welfare that can be brought directly or indirectly into
relation with measure of money.” Pigovian welfare economics is related to the
satisfaction derived from the use of exchangeable goods and services, Pigovian
welfare economics is based on the following assumptions:
(a)
Every individual attempts to maximise his satisfaction from the use of
limited monetary resources.
(b)
Satisfaction derived from the consumption of goods and services can be
compared interpersonally and interpersonally.
(c)
Marginal utility of money income decreases with every increase in it
which implies that marginal of a unit of money to the poor is greater than
that to the rich.
(d)
Different individual have equal capacity for satisfaction, that is, different
people derive the same satisfaction from the same real income.
Pigou formulated dual criterion to maximize welfare as : (i) An increase
in national income brought about either by increasing some goods without
reducing the others or by transferring factors from less productive to more
productive activities, increases economic welfare (ii) Any re-organisation of the
economy, which increases purchasing power of the poor without reducing the
national income, increases social welfare
2.4
The Kaldor-Hicks Compensation Critetion : Nicholas Kaldor and
John Hicks gave the following criterion for the welfare of the society.
Assume that a change in the economy is being considered, which will
benefit some (gainers) and hurt others (losers). One can ask the gainers how
much money they would be prepared to pay in order to have the change and the
losers how much money they would prepared to pay in order to prevent the
change. If the amount of money of the gainers is greater than the amount of the
losers, the change constitutes an improvement in social welfare, because the
gainers could compensate the losers and still have some net gain. Thus, the
Kaldor-Hicks compensation criterion states that a change constitutes an
improvement in social welfare if those who benefit from it could compensate
those who are hurt, and still be left with some net gain.
2.5
The Pareto-Optimality Criterion : This criterion refers to economic
efficiency, which can be objectively measured. It is called Pareto criterion after
the famous Italian economist Vilfreds Pareto (1848-1923). According to this
criterion any change that makes at least one individual better-off and no one
worse off is an improvement in social welfare. Conversely, a change that makes
no one better off and at least one worse-off is a decrease in social welfare.
Pareto optimal is a situation in which it is impossible to make anyone better off
without making someone worse-off. It is a situation in a system where the
social welfare will be maximized. Three basic conditions must be satisfied if
Pareto efficiency is to be attained. The economy must achieve :
i)
Efficiency of distribution of commodities among consumers.
ii)
Efficiency of allocation of factors of productions.
iii)
Efficiency in matching production to consumption.
Let us examine how these three conditions are satisfied to attain the
Pareto-Optimality.
(a)
Efficiency of distribution of commodities among consumers :
It is also called efficiency in consumption, which requires that it, is
impossible to redistribute a given set of goods among consumers in a manner
that would improve one person’s welfare at nobody’s expense. In economic
terms it means that if X any Y and are two goods, then the marginal rate of
substitution of X for Y (MRS X for Y) should be same for all individuals
consuming both the goods.
Suppose, in an economy there are two consumers A and B, and two
goods X and Y. Let X = apple and Y = orange. Suppose for individual A, MRS
X for Y = 2 and for individual B, MRS X for Y = 1. This means that individual
A is willing to exchange 2 oranges for 1 apple. Individual B is willing to
exchange 1 orange for 1 apple. We can now re-allocate apples and oranges
between them to make at least one of them better off, without making the other
one worse-off. What we do is to take away 1 apple from B and give it to A. He
will give us 2 oranges. Now we give one of these to B. He is no worse-off
because he is willing to exchange 1 apple for 1 orange. But we have 1 orange
left. We can give it to either A (or B) and, thus, make A (or B) better off
without making the other person worse-off. Thus, the initial allocation was not
efficient.
We cannot make any such re-distribution if the MRS X for Y is same for
all consumers. In that case, we could make one person better off only by
making another worse-off. In other words if the MRS X for Y is the same for
everyone, and there is no redistribution of goods that would constitute Pareto
improvement.
(b)
Efficiency of allocation of factors among firm producers :
It is also called production efficiency which requires that it is impossible
to redistribute inputs to produce more of one product without reducing the
output of another product. An increase in one product could make some better
off at nobody’s expense means more efficiency in utilisation of re sources. If
this is impossible, then the old allocation of inputs was efficient. Suppose, there
are two factor of production namely labour and capital in the economy. With
the help of these two factors of production two commodities are produced
namely apple and orange. Then, production efficiency requires that the
marginal rate of technical substitution of L for K ( MRTS L for K) must be
same for (1) all the products that a single firm produces using these two inputs
and (2) all producers producing the same output.
The first condition is sometimes referred to as the requirement for
managerial efficiency, because it deals with input allocation within a single
firm. If this condition is not satisfied and two products have different MRTS L
for K, then we can redistribute the inputs so that this firm can produce more of
one good without reducing the production of other good. Suppose that the two
products are apple and orange, and suppose the MRTS of L for K is 2 for apple
and 1 for orange. This means that we can substitute 1 unit of labour for 2 units
of capital and keep apple output constant. Similarly, we can substitute 1 unit of
labour for 1 unit of capital and keep orange output constant.
So, all we do is take, one unit of labour out of apple production and
switch to orange production. This release of 2 units of capital from apple
production, 1 unit of which is transferred to the production of oranges. Now the
output of apple and oranges is unaltered, but we left with an extra unit of
capital. We can allocate this to apple (or orange) and get more apples (or
oranges). Thus, one output is increased without reducing the other output. The
second condition deal with the efficient allocation of inputs between firm. If the
condition is not satisfied then a redistribution of inputs between firms will
produce an increase in at least one output with no reduction in the other.
(c)
Efficiency in Matching Production and Consumption :
This efficiency requires that we produce the correct mix of outputs. The
condition for efficiency in the matching of production and consumption is that
it be impossible to rearrange outputs in manner that would constitute a Pareto
improvement. This type of efficiency necessitates that for two goods x and y,
the marginal rate of transformation (in production) of x for y (MRT x for y) is
the same as the marginal rate of substitution (in consumption) of x for y (MRS
x for y).
That is,
MRT x for y for all producers = MRS x for y for all consumers.
Suppose, this condition is not satisfied and for a producer A we have
MRT x for y = 2 and for a consumer B we have MRS x for y = 1
X = Kilograms of Apples
Y = Kilograms of Oranges
Then, since MRT x for y = 2, the producer can decrease production of
apples by 1 kg. and increase production of oranges by 2 kg. with the same total
in puts. Now the producer can give consumer 1 kg less of apples and 1 kg. more
of oranges. Since MRS x for y = 1 for consumers, they are neither better off nor
worse-off. But the producer is better-off as he has 1 kg of orange left. If he
gives it away to the consumer, the consumer is better-off and the producer is
not worse-off. Thus, at least one of two can be made better off without the other
being made worse off, by the change. Thus, the original situation is not Pareto
Optimal.
Thus, there are two basic principles for Pareto Optimality (1) any MR1
must equal any corresponding MRS, (2) Any MR1 must equal any body else’s
MRT, and any MRS must equal anybody else’s MRS.
When all the conditions of economic efficiency are fulfilled
simultaneously, a society is said to have achieved a Pareto optimum. As long as
these conditions are not fulfilled and inequalities persist, a reallocation of
resources or goods can be made, that will increase total economic welfare.
Pareto conditions for efficiency would be satisfied if profit maximizing
firms and utility maximizing households were to determine the optimum
quantities of goods and services that they wish to trade with the help of
equilibrium prices established in perfectly competitive markets. In this case.
MRS x for y
= Px Py is the same for all consumers
MRISL for k
= PL/Pk is same for all producers
MRT x for y
= Px/Py for all producers
= Px/Py for all consumers
= MRS x for y
Where
Px
= price of commodity x
Py
= price of commodity y
3.
PL
= price of labour
PK
= price of capital
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
In previous lessons to study the economic problem partial equilibrium
approach is used. This approach is related to the decisions in a particular
segment of the economy in isolation of what was happening in other segments,
under the ceteris paribus assumption.
In consumer behaviour lesson, the utility maximising behaviour of
household was examined under the assumption that its income was given,
although income depends upon the amount of labour and other factors of
production that the consumer owns and on their prices. The ceteris paribus
assumption was useful in that it enabled us to study the individuals demand for
different commodities in isolation from influences arising from other parts of
the economy.
In producer behaviour’s lesson, the production decision of a firm was
examined under the assumption that factor prices, the state of technology and
prices of commodities were given. The ceteris paribus assumption allowed us to
study the cost minimisation behaviour of a firm in isolation from such factors
such as demand for the products, which in turn are influenced by the level of
employment, income and tastes of consumers.
Thus, the basic characteristics of partial equilibrium analysis in the
determination of the price and quantity in each market by demand and supply
curves drawn by assuming that other things are remaining constant. Each
market in this approach is regarded independently of others.
General equilibrium analysis, by contrast, is concerned with the
interdependence of all economic units and all markets in the economy. The
markets of all commodities and all productive factors are inter-related, and the
prices in all markets are simultaneously determined. For example, consumers’
demand for various goods and services depend upon their tastes and incomes.
Consumers’ incomes in turn depend on the amounts of resources they own and
factor prices. Factor prices depend on the demand and supply of various inputs.
The demand for factors by firm depends not only on the state of technology but
also on the demand for final goods they produce. The demands for these goods
depend on consumers incomes, which as we saw depend on the demand for
factors of production. This circular interdependence of the activity within an
economic system can be illustrated with a simple economy composed of two
sectors, a consumer sector, which includes households and a business sector,
which includes firms. It is assumed that (i) all production take place in the
business sector, (ii) all factor of production are owned by the households (iii) all
factors are fully employed, (iv) all income is spent.
The economic activity in the system takes the form of two flows between
consumer sector and the business sector: a real flow and a monetary flow.
These flows are shown in the following figure no.5.
Fig. 5
The real flow is the exchange of goods for services of factors of
production firms produce and offer final goods to the household sector, and
consumer offer to the firm the services of factors which they own.
The monetory flow is the real flow expressed in monetory terms. The
consumers receive income payments from the firms for offering their factor
services. These incomes are spent by consumers for the acquisition of the
finished goods produced by business sector. The expenditures of firms become
the money incomes of the households. Similarly, the expenditures of
households become the receipts of the firms, which they once again pay the
households for the factor services which they supply.
The real flow and monetary flow, which represent the transactions and
the interdependence of the two sectors, more in opposite direction. They are
linked by the prices of goods and factor services. The economic system is in
equilibrium when a set of prices is attained at which the magnitude of the
income flow from firms to households is equal to the magnitude of the money
expenditure flow nom households to firms.
An economic system consists of millions of economic decision making
units, who are motivated by self-interest. Each one pursues his own goal and
strives for his own equilibrium independently of others. The problem is to
determine whether the independent, self-interest mo1ivated behaviour of
economic decision makers is consistent with each individual agent’s attaining
equilibrium. All economic units, whether consumers, producers or suppliers of
factors, are independent. General equilibrium theory deals with the problem of
whether the independent action by each decision maker leads to a position in
which equilibrium is reached by all. A general equilibrium is defined as a state
in which all markets and all decision making units are in simultaneous
equilibrium. A general equilibrium exists if each market is cleared at a positive
price, with each consumer maximizing satisfaction and each firm maximising
profit. The scope of general equilibrium analysis is the examination, whether
this state can, if ever, be reached that is how prices are determined
simultaneously in all markets, so that there is neither excess demand nor excess
supply, while at the same time the individual economic units attain their own
goals.
EXERCISES
Q. No. 1
How we measure the consumer and producer surplus?
Q. No. 2
What is Welfare Economic? Explain different methods for
measuring the social Welfare.
Q. No. 3
What is social welfare? How we measure it with the help of
paretocriteria.
Q. No. 4
Explain the Pareto-Optimality criteria for measuring the social
welfare.
Q. No. 5
What is difference between partial equilibrium and general
equilibrium analysis. Explain the general equilibrium analysis in
simple economic system.
Suggested Readings :
1.
Koutsoyiannis, A Modem Microeconomics, 2nd Edition, Macmillan
Publication, Landon.
2.
Landsberg, Steven E. Price Theory and Application. The Dryden Press,
Landon.
3.
Salvatore, S., Managerial Economics, Mc Graw Hill Publications.