How To Pull Profits In A Financial Breakdown
Transcription
How To Pull Profits In A Financial Breakdown
Untapped Wealth October 2008 Edition How To Pull Profits In A Financial Breakdown There’s no question, we are in a hard and trying market. That being said, just because it has dipped into this grey territory doesn’t mean that profits have dried up, they’ve just moved to a market. Where do we start and who’s to blame? That’s the biggest question out there, especially from the political blowhards who let this whole thing go unregulated in the first place. What gets me is how the house as well as the Bush Administration didn’t see this coming; what happens when government backed mortgages get saturated with sub-prime loans? Well it’s simple…have a look at the industry and you’ll find your answer. Now, we’re looking at the Government attempting to pass a “bail out” at our expense…Either way we’re going to see things get worse before they get better.. So where do we profit if the bailout goes through and where do we profit if the bailout gets voted down? That’s simple; for the October 2008 Issue, we’ll be capitalizing on two distinct markets that both have the potential to kill during these times. The first position is an Argentinean based online trading platform that is severely undervalued and we need to pounce right away to ensure some real strong profits. The second position is a Vancouver, BC based silver miner that has been doing very well over the past few years. We’ll be watching silver closely as I believe that silver is the place to be for 2 reasons; the fact that it is extremely undervalued and the fact that it is a big time hedge in a questionable market. So let’s get right to it. Tim Fields Table of Contents How To Pull Pofits…………………………………………1 October Recommendation #1, MercadoLibre………….2 MELI Principal Services………………………………….3 MELI Market Opportunity………………………………..3 MELI Strengths…………………………………………….4 MELI Strengths Continued……………………………….5 MELI Earnings & Closing……………………………….6 October Recommendation #2, Silver Wheaton………..6 SLW Activity……………………………………………….7 SLW Earnings & The End…………………………….….8 Model Portfolio……………………………………………9 www.untapped.wealthonline.com 1 The first position for your Untapped Wealth October Edition goes to Argentinean based, MercadoLibre (MELI: $22.46*). MercadoLibre hosts the largest online trading platform in Latin America, which is located at www.mercadolibre.com. The company is a market leader in e-commerce in each of the following, based on unique visitors and page views during 2007: Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru 2 Uruguay and Venezuela The company has also launched online trading platforms in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Panama. Being that the market contains over 550 million people and the region is one of the world’s fastest-growing Internet penetration rates, MELI provide buyers and sellers with a robust online trading environment that fosters the development of a large and growing e-commerce community. The company additionally, offers a technological and commercial solution that addresses the distinctive cultural and geographic challenges of operating an online trading platform in Latin America. Two Principal Services MercadoLibre offers the following two services: (courtesy MercadoLibre) The MercadoLibre marketplace: “The MercadoLibre marketplace is a fullyautomated, topically-arranged and user-friendly online trading service. This service permits both businesses and individuals to list items and conduct their sales and purchases online in either a fixed-price or auction-based format. Additionally, through online classified advertisements, our registered users can also list and purchase motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, real estate and services. Any Internet user can browse through the various products and services that are listed on our website and register with MercadoLibre to list, bid for and purchase items and services. The MercadoPago online payments solution: To complement the MercadoLibre marketplace, we developed MercadoPago, an integrated online payments solution. MercadoPago is designed to facilitate transactions on the MercadoLibre marketplace by providing a mechanism that allows our users to securely, easily and promptly send and receive payments online.” Market opportunity MercadoLibre provides services to a region with one of the world’s fastest growing Internet penetration rates. The company was one of the initial entrants into the Latin American e-commerce market. The region, which consists of South America, Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico, is home to over 550 million people, or approximately 8.5% of the world’s population. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Latin America’s combined annual gross domestic product in 2006 was greater than $2.9 trillion. 3 Based on information released by InternetWorldStats.com, estimates for Internet penetration in Latin America on May 7, 2007 range from a high of 42.4% for Chile to 17.2% for Brazil and 6.5% for Panama with an average penetration of approximately 18.4%. Between the end of 2000 and May 7, 2007, InternetWorldStats.com estimates that Latin America’s Internet user base increased approximately 466.2% with a compounded annual growth rate of 30.9%. The Latin American market has the potential to present a significant opportunity for an Internet-based marketplace provider, specifically MELI. E-commerce platforms much like that of MercadoLibre , offers distinct opportunities of “scale, information availability and accessibility to markets”, which indeed take in hand many of the inefficiencies regarding traditional offline trading in Latin America, such as limited access to information, high number of parties in distribution chains, limited inventory, and obstacles to efficient communication and interaction between market the market community. Competitive strengths The following are traits that give MercadoLibre a competitive advantage in appreciating the potential of their market opportunities: (taken from MercadoLibre’s Prospectus) “We have a strong brand and are one of the leaders in the Latin American e-commerce market. We were one of the initial entrants in the Latin American e-commerce market, and we host the leading online trading platform in the region based on unique visitors and page views. We have built strong brand awareness and a growing online community that provides our users with the advantages of a sizable network with a large number of participants in a single marketplace. In some countries, we operate the only large-scale online trading platform that covers a wide range of product and service categories. We operate a proven business model. Business models similar to ours have been successfully implemented in many countries around the world, most notably by one of our stockholders, eBay Inc., or eBay. We have had the advantage of working closely with eBay in exchanging industry best practices and developing and improving our services and strategy. Our business model offers significant economies of scale. Since we started operations in 1999, we have shown significant revenue growth from year to year. Our business model has substantial operating leverage because a significant portion of our costs are fixed, such that increases in revenues have resulted in higher margins year after year. From 2004 to 2006, our annual revenues increased from $12.7 million to $52.1 million, a 311.1% increase, while total costs and operating expenses grew from $16.0 million to $46.7 million, a 191.4% increase. 4 Our product range and information is extensive. We offer our customers one of the broadest selections of products and product categories among e-commerce sites in Latin America. Our sites offer on average over 2.9 million total listings per month from a selection of over 2,000 different product categories. Our product selection ranges from traditional ecommerce items such as books, music, videos, electronics, computers, hardware, cameras and cellular telephones, to industrial goods and services, to real estate and contractor services. Our website offers an efficient shopping experience with extensive information, ratings and reviews on listed products. We provide creative and innovative solutions. We have developed creative and innovative solutions to the challenges of conducting e-commerce in Latin America. For example, in addition to offering sellers an auction-based format to sell an item, the MercadoLibre marketplace also offers a fixed-price alternative to respond to the current preferences in the region for fixed-price listings. In order to address the specific needs of buyers and sellers of motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, real estate and certain services, items for which buyers will typically require a physical inspection or specific types of interaction, we offer our users an online classified advertisements service that is dedicated to these items. To complement theMercadoLibre marketplace by providing an end-to-end service that facilitates the completion of transactions online, we have developed MercadoPago, which operates as an escrow service that allows our users to make and receive payments efficiently and securely online. In order to meet the demand for product information by potential purchasers, we have launched product content sections on our platform that encourage user ratings and product reviews, and provide product catalogues and purchasing guides. To improve the efficiency of our MercadoLibre marketplace, we launched a relevancebased algorithm to sort listings, which provides users with a superior buying experience by matching supply and demand. We have acquired considerable local market expertise. As one of the first Internet trading platforms in the countries where we operate, we have developed an understanding of the needs and preferences of our users and customers. We have historically used this expertise to develop services and products that cater to the unique needs of Latin American e-commerce clients. We have an experienced and highly qualified team. We are led by a team of highly qualified management and information technology professionals who run our business and websites from our offices in Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Mexico City, Caracas, Santiago and Bogotá. Our ten most senior management officers and our four most senior technology professionals joined our team in 2000 or before, which provides us with 5 stable and seasoned leadership. The commitment, knowledge and track record of both our management and technology teams are valuable assets to our company. We believe that our corporate culture contributes to the high level of satisfaction of our employees and to the retention and commitment of our team.” Latest Earnings For Q2, MELI’s earnings were as follows: Q2: The company's revenue jumped 81.7%, to $34.5 million, smoking analysts' expectations for $32.2 million. In the End As MercadoLibre grows throughout 2008, we expect that investors should pick up a heavy profit from their extremely undervalued nature. Position #2; Silver Mining Your second October recommendation goes out to a small silver operation based out of Vancouver, BC. The company is Silver Wheaton (SLW: $9.07**). 6 Silver Wheaton is a mining company with 100% of its operating revenue from the sale of silver, unlike the industry standard which includes other metals. Silver Wheaton’s principal product is silver that it has agreed to act as a purchaser from: The San Dimas Mines The Zinkgruvan zinc-lead-silver mine in Sweden Glencore International AG The Stratoni Mine The Peñasquito Project The Corporation is an active seeker when it comes to future silver purchases. The company has a history of pursuing future growth opportunities, primarily by way of longterm silver purchase contracts. Silver Wheaton is currently engaged in discussions with respect to such possible opportunities and at any given time, discussions and activities can be in progress on a number of initiatives, each at different stages of development. Recent Activity Over the past year, Silver Wheaton has been holding up to their historic tradition of profits as they expanded on their already large silver portfolio. The following is a chronological look on 2007 and the company’s contracts. April 23, 2007 Silver Wheaton entered into a silver purchase contract with European Goldfields and Hellas Gold, a 65%-owned subsidiary of European Goldfields, in which SLW agreed to purchase 100% of the silver produced by Hellas Gold from the Stratoni Mine over its entire mine life. July 25, 2007 Silver Wheaton entered into a silver purchase contract with Goldcorp and Minera Peñasquito, S.A. de C.V. ("Minera Peñasquito"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Goldcorp, in which the company penned an agreement to purchase 25% of the silver produced by Minera Peñasquito from the Peñasquito Project over its entire mine life November 5, 2007 Silver Wheaton completed the acquisition of common shares of Mines Management, Inc. Following this acquisition, SLW owns approximately 11.2% of the outstanding common 7 shares of Mines Management and has been granted a right of first refusal over any silver stream sales by Mines Management from any of its projects in Montana. December 20, 2007 Silver Wheaton entered into a binding letter agreement to purchase between 45% and 90% of the life of mine silver production from the Rosemont Project owned by Augusta. Mach 17, 2008 Silver Wheaton agreed to purchase all of the silver produced by Mercator Minerals Ltd. May 13, 2008 Silver Wheaton agreed to purchase 75% of the life of mine silver produced by Farallon Resources Ltd. June 3, 2008 Silver Wheaton agreed to purchase 50% of the life of mine silver produced at the La Negra mine located in Queretaro State, Mexico. Earnings On July 29, SLW announced earnings for Q2 and they were in typical Silver Wheaton fashion- they killed. The company announced the following in a statement: “Net earnings of US$23.3 million (US$0.10 per share) from the sale of 2.9 million ounces of silver, compared to US$22.9 million (US$0.10 per share) from the sale of 3.1 million ounces of silver in 2007. Record operating cash flows of US$35.9 million (US$0.16 per share) compared with US$27.8 million (US$0.13 per share) in 2007.” In The End In the end, these two positions, MercadoLibre and Silver Wheaton both have the potential to gain strength during the latter part of 2008, in the face of the financial meltdown we’re currently subject to. During this time, these positions may be subject to sharp declines and increases as the US economy makes or breaks, so be prepared. With that being said, a stop loss program is strongly advised and 20% should be your absolute max. 8 Have a great October. Tim Fields Editor In Chief Untapped Wealth Untapped Wealth *MELI Investor Alert price $22.46, however position opened at $21.83 **SLW Investor Alert price $9.07, however position opened at $8.93 Publisher: Kyle Hodgens Editor in Chief: Tim Fields Marketing Director: Angela Vazquez Customer Service: (800) 479-5084 Website: www.untappedwealthonline.com All information, research, and opinions are deemed to be reliable but are not guaranteed. Untapped Wealth does not provide individual investment advice. Before investing in any of the recommendations made in this or any other newsletter you should research as much and from as many sources as possible. No employee of Untapped Wealth may hold positions in any recommended equities until 10 days after the date of recommendation. The ideas and information in this newsletter are of value only if you’ve done your research. It is entirely likely the recommendations made within these pages will result in losses…such is life. Thank you for reading, best of luck. Postmaster: Send address changes to Untapped Wealth, 103 NE 4th Street, Delray Beach, FL 33444. Model Portfolio Company Initial Rec Price Current Price % Gain/Loss Mindray Med (MR) Directv (DTC) ACM Corp (ACM) Clearwire (CLWR) Halliburton (HAL) COMPANHIA VALE (RIO) ID Systems (IDSY) Raser Tech (RZ) Mphase Tech (XDSL.OB Adv Photonix (API) AZZ Inc (AZZ) Quidel Corp (QDEL) Cal-Maine (CALM) Dollar Tree (DLTR) Family Dollar (FDO) Star Bulk (SBLK) China TransInfo (CTFO) Ituran Location (ITRN) StealthGas Inc (GASS) Patriot Sci (PTSC.OB) Dreams Inc (DRJ) MeracadoLibre (MELI) Silver Wheaton (SLW) $24.95 $22.35 $24.99 $25 $32.60 $20.89 $12.32 $13 $0.07 $32.47 $25.46 $23.89 $11.35 $31.82 $18.69 $8.83 $7.70 $0.04 30.09% 13.91% (4.40%) (54.72%) (2.39%) (10.53%) (28.33%) (40.77%) (45.71%) $2.65 $34.69 $16.69 $34.20 $37 $20.87 $9.40 $5.80 $11.61 $15.32 $0.27 $1.03 $21.83* $8.93 $1.70 $41.13 $16.03 $28 $36.35 $24.43 $6.88 $4.33 $10.81 $13.58 $0.16 $0.90 $20.04 $8.27 (35.92%) 18.56% (3.59%) (18.13%) (1.76) 17.06% (26.88%) (25.34%) (7.67%) (11.36%) (40.74%) (12.61%) (8.2%) (7.39%) 9