Q&A from our webinar “How to Answer Common Plug-In Questions”

Q&A from our webinar “How to Answer Common Plug-In Questions”
Below are questions submitted by attendees of the webinar “How to Answer Common Plug In
Questions” that were not answered on the call.
BATTERY QUESTIONS:
Q: In trying to do cost comparisons for TCO, if you had to replace a LEAF, Roadster, or iMiev battery
today, how much would it cost? Reasoning, it should be cheaper 8 years from now, but is there any
data on what these batteries actually cost today?
A: Manufacturers do not release pricing data on their batteries. Some analysts have tried to estimate
them based on bulk retail battery pricing, but OEMs have noted that some of these estimates are too
high. So we can’t give you a real number, but we’ll try a very rough guess.
Tesla uses commodity laptop batteries, so their prices appear to be lower than other manufacturers
(although manufacturers like Nissan that are building large factories for the purpose may be gaining
ground). In late 2008, they offered to “pre-sell” (so this is a future retail price) a 53kWh battery 7 years
in the future for $12k, or about $226/kWh. In early 2012 they released a current retail price (supposedly
with significant margin built in) of 20 and 25kWh upgrades (different chemistries) to their battery packs
at $10k each, or $400-500/kWh.
If we take Tesla’s high-end current retail as a base, a 24kWh Leaf battery would be $12k, a 16kWh iMiev
battery would be $8k, and a 53kWh Roadster battery would be $26.5k. These numbers are very rough!
Q: What is the cost of a battery replacement for a nissan leaf projected to be in 8 years?
A: Whatever the current price (see previous question), based on historical trends is seems likely that
prices will be roughly cut in half 8 years from now. Most analysts roughly agree with this rate. Given
the above guess at current prices, plus this guess at the rate of decline, that would be about $6k for a
Leaf battery in 8 years. Of course nobody knows the real number—just as nobody knows what gas will
cost in 8 years!
Q: How do I answer how the batteries perform in extreme cold conditions such as -47F (as we had
today)?
A: Not all manufacturers use the same chemistry, or have the same pack conditioning methods, so an
across-the-board answer is difficult—it is best to consult with the manufacturer for each vehicle.
But assuming such a cold environment would have a good lithium chemistry with pack warming, the
pack would perform very nearly the same as anywhere else. The only difference would be the energy
used for the warming. That can depend on how it’s driven and even pack geometry, but some Roadster
owners in very cold area suggest about a 10% range decline. (See teslamotorsclub.com)
Q: How to I answer someone who says EVs are bad because they use batteries which use mercury in
them. I had this before from a Federal Minister MP!
A: We have not heard of any EV battery that uses mercury. Some hybrid batteries have toxic materials,
but they are very different chemistries because they require power-dense rather than energy-dense
batteries.
Q: It seems to be that the 10 year old value of EV batteries should still be sufficiently high that re-use
would be a desired option rather than re-cycle. It there any progress in the re-use of old batteries?
A: We agree that this seems likely, and there are many pilot projects underway. It is clearly technically
possible to do; but the financial model is not yet fully understood. There are not enough used batteries
for this to be commercial today, and in the future it is hard to estimate what used battery prices, energy
prices and grid demands will be. Fortunately there are enough different uses (pure backups,
instantaneous grid smoothing, irregular source smoothing, opportunity buying, etc) that it seems likely
at least one will work out.
APARTMENTS
Q: What do you tell people that live in apartments?
Q: What do you say to people that can not charge at home because they live in an apartment?
Q: Would you recommend an EV to someone who cannot charge at home? (such as someone in an
apartment complex)
Q: What happens if you live in an apartment complex that doesn't offer a charging station?
Q: I get a lot of comments from people who own condos or live in multi family buildings, who are
concerned about not being able to get a charge port where they park. Is there a published list of
typical solutions, models and costs for this type of EV owner?
A: Many apartment/condo owners will be happy to allow you to install an EVSE, as long as you pay for it
and leave it when you move. Some municipalities are passing laws saying that they have to allow this,
and some are requiring new construction to have wiring for it. If you don’t drive much, perhaps all you
need is a 110V outlet.
If there is no location for an EVSE, a few municipalities can allow for a roadside EVSE. Charging at work
or at a DCQC fast-charge station on the way there are other possibilities, though clearly far from ideal.
Perhaps a PHEV would be better if you think you can charge sometimes, but not always.
For more information, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79ShT3YUVVA
TAX INCENTIVES
Q: What do you know about the tax incentives for 2012?
A: The federal $7,500 incentive remains in place. Federal incentives for EVSEs, 2-and-3-wheeled
vehicles, and conversions have expired. State incentives that we are aware of have remained in place,
but many of them are under review (and there are many new ones being considered).
OTHER
Q: Are you familiar with the IPhone App "ChargePoint"? Is it the best app to help locate and reserve
charging stations in advance of arrival at the station? How do you feel about the app "PlugShare"?
A: We hope to be able to evaluate EVSE locator apps in the near future. Unfortunately, there are many
of them, and none of them do everything; and in fact as far as we know none of them even do the single
most important thing, which is to list all stations. The two apps mentioned are both fine apps and in
common use; but most people at this point still feel the need to use more than one.
Q: I have a deposit on a Fisker Karma with a 1 March production date. There so far have been so many
bugs that Fisker has stopped delivery until addressed. Do you have current experience with a Karma
and where Fisker is with the software fixes?
A: None of us are Karma owners, and we do not have any information about the cars other than what
the company has released publicly.
Q: Tesla is supposedly putting fast charge stations(400 volt) on major interstates. Do you know where
Tesla is with the effort?
A: Tesla is still deciding where to put stations. They have said that they would like to have some
installed in the first half of this year, but the number does not seem likely to be large.
Q: Do you think NEV/LSV help or hurt the EV perception?
A: Any electric mile is a good mile, and we love NEVs. But we do have to admit that a large percentage
of the general public seems to get the idea that EVs are slow, ugly, unsafe and cheap from seeing them
and assuming the limitations are due to the powertrain rather than the safety class.
Q: Isn't the resale value of the older RAV4s useful as an example of resale value?
A: It’s the best thing we have. However, their values went way up when no other cars were available,
and came down quite a bit when the Leaf (complete with incentives) came on the market. Even as they
stabilize at a good level now (given how old they are), it’s important to remember that they do have a
different battery chemistry (NiMH) and EV availability is still not universal, so predicting the future is
hard. That said, we are bullish on anything with a very small number of moving parts that uses very
inexpensive fuel!
Q: Do we have any cost comparison data for maintenance?
A: The cars haven’t been around long enough for significant real-world data. From looking at suggested
service in owner’s manuals, it does appear that maintenance costs should be significantly cheaper than
for a comparable gas car. We think saying maintenance is “half” that of a gas car is fairly reasonable.
Q: Any updates on roll outs of high powered DC charging stations in California? What should our
expectations be?
A: The state is still working on funding for stations along the freeways. The EV Project is supposed to
have quite a few in major metro areas within the next few months, however.
Q: Do we have any data on resale values for LEAFs, i, volts?
A: Nothing useful. They are too new, and ones for re-sale too rare to draw any conclusions.
Q: Does avoidance of gas stations and waiting lines resonate with mainstream buyers?
A: In the early stages of learning about plug-ins, when they are still skeptical, it’s not enough to win
them over—they are still afraid of having to wait for a charge. But once they start to realize that they
could make good use of one and don’t have to wait for the charging, it’s a really nice bonus to throw in.
Q: Does Kelley Blue book list values for used EVs yet?
A: Not as of the last time we checked.
Q: My EV (the Think City) was very affordable after the State (Indiana) discount I received (and I'll now
get my Federal tax credit) - but if that Federal tax credit was fully refundable or could be carried
forward - THEN those of us who are not 'rich' could actually get $7500 back, and put EVs more in our
price range - Any chance of lobbying for that?
A: Legislation has been proposed to turn the $7,500 tax credit into a point-of-sale rebate. There is a
precedent for this (the Cash for Clunkers program); however, the current political climate does not make
such a change seem likely in the near future.
Q: How do you answer this question: if everyone started charging electric cars at night, won't that
overload the electric utility companies?
A: The US has vast amounts of unused electrical capacity at night. The DOE says that we could convert ¾
of our vehicles to electric at night without adding a single power plant, as long as they all charge at night
(which data shows almost all of them do—especially when the utility uses TOU pricing).
Q: Would potential EV drivers be opposed to a towable range extender if it allowed unlimited travel
at highway speeds?
A: Some might consider it. But if they have another gas car in the family, they are be more likely to take
that. If they only have one car, there’s a good chance they bought a PHEV and already have the range
extender.
Q: EVs appear to be aimed at more affluent consumers - how do we "promote" EVs for people of
more modest means?
A: The Mitsubishi i-Miev is in the low $20’s after the federal tax credit, far under the average price of a
new car. People of modest means are unlikely to pay up-front; so if they subtract their monthly gas
savings ($121 using average miles, gas & electric prices) from their car payment, they will find that if
they can afford a new gas car, they can afford an electric car.
Even nicer cars like the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt can be leased for $350/month, and you can subtract
the fuel savings from those payments. There are cheaper gas cars, but they aren’t nearly as nice.
Q: What cities in the US are investing more in EV infrastructure?
A: There are dozens of cities that are making modest investments. The largest investments to date have
been made by the DOE, and much of their strategy is to heavily invest in a few cities, see what works,
and then replicate it elsewhere. You can see examples of that at http://www.theevproject.com/ and
http://chargepointamerica.com/.
Q: What role can ride sharing companies play in growing adoption of electric vehicles?
A: The best way to convince a skeptical consumer that they will like a plug-in vehicle is to get them to
ride in one. Ride-share companies are perfect for this! Some, like Getaround, already have several plugins in their fleet, and they are quite popular. Some rental car companies like Enterprise and Hertz are
offering them as well.
Ride-share programs also can work better for lower-income consumers that may not be purchasing a
car.
Q: How long will it take to get ten million EVs on U.S. roads?
A: Given current building capacity, more than a decade, maybe even two. But if demand remains
strong, manufacturers will build more—this can definitely happen inside a decade.
Q: Where did the equation of 30kWh/100miles come from?
A: EPA estimates of energy usage at www.fueleconomy.gov
Q: If I'm ready to buy an EV (Leaf) right now, should I hold off until newer technology arrives over the
next few years? Do you see dramatic improvements over the next few years or more of a measured
improvement trend?
A: Just like computers and cell phones, there will always be a better model around the corner. If you
don’t need or want one now, you can certainly wait and get a better one later. But if you want to
experience the many benefits now—dive on in! Some of the cars are even only offered as, say, 2-year
leases; so you could do that for now and then reevaluate.