Document 6516191

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WHICH WAY NOW? WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK
FOR THE BUSINESS JET MARKET?
CHRIS SEYMOUR, HEAD OF MARKET ANALYSIS
2
Deliveries by Region – The Changing Trend
100%
Unknown area
Percentage of Deliveries
90%
Middle East
80%
70%
Africa
60%
Asia Pacific
50%
40%
30%
Latin America &
Caribbean
20%
Europe
10%
North America
0%
2003
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
2008
Delivery Year
2012
Deliveries by Region – The Changing Trend
Although 2012 business jet deliveries saw another ‘low year’ with just 675,
virtually flat compared to 2011 and only half of the total five years ago, there
are some interesting trends to be observed.
North America and Europe still remain the two key markets for new business
jet deliveries.
However, their share of deliveries has fallen from almost 90% ten years ago,
to just 70% in 2012.
Emerging markets accounted for 30% of deliveries last year, highlighting the
increasing importance to manufacturers of these markets, especially in Latin
America and Asia/Pacific.
Emerging Markets are Driving Fleet Growth
Emerging Markets are Driving Fleet Growth
Outside of the USA, the ten year business jet fleet growth is led by Brazil
with over 750 aircraft added. This market has been stimulated by ‘home’
producer Embraer’s growing portfolio of business jet types.
These emerging markets do differ in what sizes of aircraft being added. For
example, China, which is seen as one of the leading markets for the future,
has concentrated on adding larger cabin jets, for international travel. Once
Chinese airspace opens up more, a market for smaller aircraft for domestic
use should develop.
Delivery Trend Shows Move to Larger Sizes
Delivery Trend Shows Move to Larger Sizes
There has been a definite shift in focus towards larger business jets in the
past five years – the medium (mid-size) and larger types accounted for 53%
last year, compared to less than 40% ten years ago.
What many predicted would be a ‘boom’ in Very Light Jet sales was hit by
the financial crisis – five years ago the smallest jets recorded a 28% share of
deliveries; this was more than halved to 13% last year.
The market for new smaller jets (light-mediums and under) has been
affected by a high used inventory (many young aircraft available) and a lack
of financing. However, there may be signs that the availability of new
models could stimulate new sales.
New Models Seeking to Stimulate Demand
New Models Seeking to Stimulate Demand
The business jet manufacturers have always been active in developing new
variants of existing types (usually offering improved performance, uprated
engines, avionics, interiors etc) and launching all-new types, albeit often with
‘family’ heritage.
This has helped to stimulate sales as operators will replace aircraft on a
much more regular basis than in the commercial airline market.
In the next five years there are at least 20 brand new types or upgrades of
existing aircraft coming into the market. This should help to bring new
business jet sales out of the doldrums. It is possible that new deliveries will
once again pass 1,000 per year by the end of this decade.
Thank you for your reading
News, Data, Analytics – Flightglobal.com
Advisory – Ascendworldwide.com
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