Knowledge economy for Africa: Why? What? How?

Knowledge economy for
Africa: Why? What? How?
Innovation in the African Context:
A Forum for Policy Makers
Dublin, 5-8 March, 2007
Jean-Eric Aubert
World Bank Institute
Why Knowledge economy for
Africa?
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Because knowledge is the foundation of
development (Korea example)
Because a global knowledge revolution,
leading into a post industrial society
(opportunity for Africa which missed the
industrial era)
An African example (Mauritania)
The KBE Advantage at work: 50 year
perspective
Korea
vs. Ghana
T housands of 1985
international dollars
8
R ep. o f K orea
D iffe re n ce
a ttrib u te d to
kn o w le dg e
6
4
2
G h an a
0
1958 1962 1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
D iffe re n ce d ue to
p h ysica l a n d
h um an ca p ita l
Mega trends: the Knowledge
revolution and globalization
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Telecommunications explosion
Intensified global competition
Scientific advances (biotech. micro-el)
Increased exchanges of technology
(international licensing flows)
Knowledge investments > capital good
investments
Automation: shift of qualifications (brain
power)
16
Changes in Job Task-Skill
Demands, USA, 1960 –
1998
14
Expert Thinking
12
Percentile Change
10
8
Complex
Communication
6
4
2
Routine Manual
0
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1998
-2
Routine Cognitive
-4
-6
Non-Routine Manual
-8
-10
Source: Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003) “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration,” Quarterly Journal of Economics.
In the Desert of
Mauritania…knowledge dynamics at
work
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A group of tourists
Guided by young English-speaking graduates,
who were formerly unemployed,
Using the traditional knowledge of nomads
Stay in accommodations equipped with first
rate Internet, thanks to exemplary telecom
policy
…….>>>> Four KE pillars
© K4D program
Four Pillars of the Knowledge
Economy (WBI)
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A sound economic incentive and
institutional regime
An educated and creative population
A dynamic information infrastructure
An efficient innovation system
© K4D program
The 4 KE Pillars
Benchmarking KE -- KAM
Knowledge Assessment Methodology
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www.worldbank.org/kam
KAM: 81 structural/qualitative variables to
benchmark performance on 4 pillars
Variables normalized from 0 (worst) to 10 (best)
for 128 countries
Basic scorecard for 14 variables for two points in
time, 1995 and 2003
Aggregate Knowledge Economy Index (KEI)
© K4D program
Basic Scorecard
Strong Correlation between GDP/Capita & KEI
©Knowledge for Development, WBI
©Knowledge for Development, WBI
© K4D program
Africa – 1995-most recent
Selected African Countries - KEI
What to do?
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Adapting policies to development levels
Think big (four pillars)
Think different: a new mindset
© K4D program
Building a KBE advantage
Think Different
means adopting a KBE mindset
Liberalization
Mindset
Modernization
Mindset
Knowledge-based
Economy Mindset
Is about:
Undoing things
Building things
Building winning
opportunities
Creates:
•Freedom
•Fluidity
•Even playing field
•Modern institutions
•Rule of law
•Good basic business
environment
Main
Focus:
Stability, incentives
Productivity catch-up
• Vision
• A winning mentality
• Clusters
• A vibrant home
base for business
Becoming globally
competitive
Domain
Economy
Economic, Social
Societal
Government
Role:
• Get out of the way
• Stop being an
operator
• Become a good
regulator
• Become a challenger
• Become an
integrator
Anxiety:
Did you liberalize
too fast?
Did you modernize too
slowly?
Did others leave you
in the dust?
© K4D program
Economic and Institutional
Regime (EIR) for Africa
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No KE, and no development more generally,
if no appropriate business climate
A major issue: bad governance, corruption,
etc
Source of problem? Conditions of
encountering with European civilization?
Bostwana, as counter example, able to
blend modern institutions with local
traditions
But noticeable progress in a number of
countries
© K4D program
Education
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Need to invest on all three levels:
primary, secondary, tertiary
Wide variation in performance
Priorities on basic
Emphasis on additive bi-linguism
(ADEA)
© K4D program
Educational Issues/Priorities
Where to invest? Cost/benefit related to absorbtive capabilities
Priorités
Défis
Sociétés
pré-industrielles
Sociétés
industrielles
Sociétés
post-industrielles
x
L’éducation
supérieure
constituer
un capital scientifique
et technologique
compétitif
x
L’éducation
secondaire
Former massivement
des cadres intermédiaires
x
Eduquer la population
L’éducation
de base
x
x
x
Primary Gross Enrollment Ratio
%
140
Madagascar
Uganda
120
South Africa
Botswana
100
Nigeria
Madagascar
Tanzania
Kenya
Nigeria
Ghana
80
Ghana
60
Senegal
Ethiopia
40
20
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Botswana
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
Senegal
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: World Bank internal databases (DDP and Edstats)
Tertiary Gross Enrollment Ratio
%
South Africa
15
Botswana
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
Senegal
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
10
Nigeria
Botswana
5
Botswana
Nigeria
Ghana
Senegal
Madagascar
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Tanzania
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: World Bank internal databases (DDP and Edstats)
ICTs
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Rapid catching up is taking place, thanks to
increased uptake of mobile phones (Tanzania,
South Africa), also improved Internet and PC
penetration across Africa
Leading to changes in the business climate,
conditions of governance
For example, Tanzania has developed National ICT
Policy (www.moct.go.tz/ict); stakeholder
discussions held through e-think tank, and
included representatives from government, private
sector and civil society
© K4D program
Telephones (Mainlines and Mobile Phones)
Per 1,000 persons
450.0
South Africa
Senegal
Nigeria
Uganda
Ghana
400.0
350.0
Botswana
Kenya
Madagascar
Tanzania
300.0
250.0
South Africa
Botswana
200.0
Senegal
Kenya
150.0
Ghana
100.0
50.0
0.0
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Source: World Bank internal database)
Personal Computers
Per 1,000 persons
80.00
70.00
South Africa
Senegal
Nigeria
Uganda
Ghana
Botswana
Kenya
Madagascar
Tanzania
60.00
50.00
South Africa
40.00
Botswana
30.00
Senegal
20.00
Kenya
10.00
0.00
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Nigeria
2000
2002
Year
Source: World Bank internal database)
Internet Hosts
Per 10,000 persons
80
South Africa
Senegal
Nigeria
Uganda
Ghana
70
Botswana
Kenya
Madagascar
Tanzania
60
50
South Africa
40
30
20
Kenya
Botswana
Tanzania
10
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Source: World Bank internal database)
Innovation
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Innovation precedes research! (see next slide)
Organic vision of innovation (not mechanistic)
Firstly, and foremost, it is a matter of receptiveness
to technology (see next slide): importance of
technical culture and advisory services
Motivated local entrepreneurs with often foreign
technology (imports/FDI)
Importance of agriculture – basic needs and agrofood exports.
Make good use of indigenous knowledge (see WB IK
program)
© K4D program
Industrial Technology
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Figure 3-4 Structure of Industrial Technology
Technology
R&D
Development
and Creation
DESIGN
AND
ENGINEERING
TECHNICIAN AND
Technology Use,
CRAFT SKILLS AND
CAPABILITIES
Operation and
BASIC OPERATORS
Maintenance
SKILLS AND CAPABILITIES
Source: WBI Staff
GOVERNMENT
GOVERNMENT ROLE
ROLE
GARDENING
GARDENING INNOVATION
INNOVATION
Watering (finance,
support to innovation
projects)
Removing weeds
(competition,
deregulation)
Nurturing soil (research,
education, information)
Sources of Technological
Change
Source: WBI Staff
Role of the public sector (V. Chandra)
Elec Elec IT - Maiz
Indi e a
Maly Tai
Indi
a
wan
Spin-offs
Export &
inv prom.
Tech
acq/dev.
Regulatio
n/complia
nce
Support
to
industry
Tech
org
skills dev
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Oil
palm
Maly
x
x
Cut
Salmo Win
Nile
ne - Perch - flowe
Chile Chile Ugand
rs a
Keny
a
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Grape
sIndia
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Innovation policy– need for
good institutions
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Focus on innovation (including technology diffusion)
– don’t mix with other objectives – not an appendix
to ST policy
Flexible agencies able to deliver support packages
(technical, financial, regulatory, etc)
Local antennas with decentralization and
commitment mechanisms
Matching funds to support entrepreneurs
Need to mobilize other government sectors
(education, finance, FDI, etc): Efficient high level
body (Finland)
How to…. Implement KE strategies?
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Think about China, some 25 years ago
Pragmatism, pragmatism….
Begin with small IER improvement to
leverage entrepreneurship (TVE)
Attract foreign technology and knowledge
Local dynamic spots, scale up (competition)
Get confidence and move to higher level of
reforms
Combine top-down reforms with bottom-up
initiatives
© K4D program
In Africa, KE bottom up initiatives
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Clusters in Anglophone Africa:
horticulture, fishing, computer making,
furniture, etc
Begin generally with local
entrepreneurs, making good use of
foreign technology and know how
Not much government support
© K4D program
In Africa, KE bottom up initiatives
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Francophone African Universities
opening on surrounding communities’
needs: services and research for local
innovations
And reforming to integrate global good
practices (LMD)
© K4D program
Regional schemes with global
partnership
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NEPAD (peer review mechanism)
Think tank networks
Management schools—Global Business
School Network (IFC)
Science and Technology: AIST
Role of Diaspora – to be cultivated
© K4D program
Conclusions
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No other choice than to embark on the KE
road
Think big (4 pillars), think new -- Visions
Be pragmatic (gradual reform processes), and
build self confidence with success stories
Make use of African bases and roots: IK,
governance traditions, local languages
Africa: Good prospects in the 21st century to
integrate in the global community.
© K4D program
Annex
Africa-related work in WBI K4D
program
© K4D program
Conferences
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“Knowledge for Africa’s Development”
VC Conferences
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Tanzania, Uganda, Ghana (6 VC Policy For a in 2002)
Senegal, Mauritania, Benin (6 VC Policy For a in 2004)
Francophone University Rector’s Meetings
(showcasing different success stories)
Support to Tanzania conference on Clusters in
2006
Studies
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Tanzania KE assessment (2006)
Senegal KE assessment (2006 – ongoing)
Work on IT in various African countries
(Senegal, Uganda, Rwanda…)
Knowledge, Technology and Clusterbased Growth in Africa (forthcoming)
Knowledge, Technology and Clusterbased Growth in Africa (forthcoming)
Findings based on analysis of 11casestudies of enterprise clusters
„ Case studies in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania,
Nigeria, Ghana, Mauritius, South Africa
„ To see the case-studies, please check:
www.worldbank.org/knowledgefordevelopm
ent (click upcoming event “knowledge for
Africa’s development”, then resources
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End
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http://www.worldbank.org/w
bi/knowledgefordevelopment/