Document 6562622

Transcription

Document 6562622

Roadshow Luxembourg
Dr. Immo Querner, CFO
14 October 2014
Talanx - Key Investment Highlights
Global insurance group with leading market positions and strong German roots
Leading and successful B2B insurer
Focus on long-term increase in value by sustainable and profitable growth
Dedication to focus on insurance rather than market risks
Commitment to continuously fulfill a „AA“ capital requirement by Standard &
Poor‘s
Target to achieve Group net income of at least €700m in 2014
Dedication to pay-out 35-45% of IFRS earnings to shareholders
2
Roadshow Luxembourg, 14 October 2014
I
Talanx in a nutshell
II
Outlook and targets
Appendix
3
Talanx in a nutshell – A global insurance player
Location overview in Primary and in Reinsurance
2013
2000
GWP split (Primary/Reinsurance): 44% / 56%
Employees (Germany/abroad): 4,539 / 1,511
Countries with local presence
GWP split (Primary/Reinsurance): 53% / 47%
Employees (Germany/abroad): 11,302 / 10,227
Branch / office location Primary Insurance
Branch / office location Reinsurance
Global networks in Industrial Lines and Reinsurance. Leading positions in retail target markets
4
Talanx in a nutshell – Among the leading European insurance groups
Top 10 European insurers
Top 10 German insurers
European insurers by global GWP (2013, €bn)
German insurers by global GWP (2013, €bn)
Allianz
103.4
Munich Re
51.1
Debeka1
Vk Bayern
HUK1
AXA
85.5
Generali
28.2
R+V
103.4
Allianz
66.1
51.1
Munich Re
12.8
39.1
Zurich
9.3
Prudential2
7.2
36.0
28.2
5.6
Signal Iduna1
5.5
CNP
Gothaer1
4.2
Crédit Agricole
26.4
W&W
3.9
Aviva
26.0
Figure of 2012
Gross premiums earned
Source: SNL Financial, annual reports
Listed
27.7
1
2
insurers
Third-largest German insurance group with leading position in Europe and strong roots in
Germany
5
Talanx in a nutshell - Shareholders and divisions
V.a.G.
Free float
14.5 %1
Industrial Lines
Lead insurer of choice
Extremely strong
home market position,
i.e. lead mandates
with most German
DAX companies and
strong position with
German Mittelstand
Bluechip client base
in Europe
79.0 %
Retail Germany
Highly effective
network of distribution
partners
Market leader in
bancassurance
Market leader in
employee affinity
business
Leading provider of
corporate pension
solutions
Retail International
Focused exposure to
CEE and LatAm (#2
insurer in Poland2, #6
in Brazilian motor3)
Attractive rates of
organic growth
Experienced
underwriter
in motor
Focused M&A track
record
1 Including
employee shares
Combined ranking based on November 2013 data of Polish regulator as per local GAAP
3 According to Siscorp based on local GAAP
4 Based on A.M. Best ranking (September 2012)
5 Based on S&P ranking by average RoE 2002-2010 and also number 1 by average RoE as per KPMG 2012
2
Integrated insurance group with leading market positions in all segments
6
6.5 %
Reinsurance
Non-Life
Life/Health
Hannover Re – world
#3 reinsurer by GWP4
Well diversified
between life/non-life
and geographically
Consistently amongst
sector leaders on
profitability5
Superior underwriting
know-how
Talanx in a nutshell – Strategic group pillars
Focus of the Group is on long-term
increase in value by sustainable and profitable growth
and vigorous implementation of our B2B-expertise
Profit target
Capital
management
RoE1>∅ TOP20
European
insurers
Fulfill S&P “AA”
capital
requirement
RoE1≥risk-free
interest rate2
+750bps
Efficient use of
available
financing
instruments
Risk management
Growth target
Generate positive
annual earnings
with a probability
of 90%
50% of primary
GWP from
foreign
operations
Continuous
development and
promotion of own
workforce
Sufficient capital
to withstand
at least an
aggregated
3,000-year shock
Selective
profitable growth
in Retail
Germany and
Reinsurance
Individual
responsibility and
entrepreneurial
spirit
Investment risk
≤50%
1
2
In accordance with IFRS
Risk-free rate is defined as the 5-year rolling average of the 10-year German government bond yield
Group and divisional strategies define goals and actions to be taken
7
Human resource
policy
Talanx in a nutshell - Industrial Lines
Key figures
Share in 2013 group GWP1
2013 geographic split (GWP)
17%
46%
54%
Key financials (€m)
Gross written premium
3,835
2,399
2,497
+4%
Net premium earned
1,744
895
927
+4%
Net underwriting result
(43)
(19)
6
n/m
Net investment income
240
108
151
+40%
Operating result (EBIT)
129
70
141
+101%
102.4
102.1
99.4 (2.7 pts)
5.1
4.5
9.2 +4.7 pts
Combined ratio
83%
Germany
International
FY2013 6M 2013 6M 2014 Change
(net)2
Return on Equity in %
in %
Recent trends
Top-line in Q2 2014 with catch-up effects, growing 10.4% y/y; 6M GWP +4.1% (curr.-adj: +5.2%), well in line with the
segment’s mid-term growth target
Main growth contribution resulting from international activities, mainly in Western Europe
Increase of self-retention to above 50% in 6M 2014 (6M 2013: 47.8%)
Positive IAS8 EBIT adjustment in Q1 2014 (€+45m), offset by charges against 2013 earnings and equity
6M 2014 combined ratio strongly impacted by “Ela” (€20m) as well as by significant man-made large losses (€105m);
total combined ratio impact: 13.5%pts; close to 2/3 of the man-made large losses materialised in June 2014
1
2
Based on total GWP adjusted for 50.2% share in Hannover Re
Including income from interest on deposits
Talanx is a leading European industrial lines insurer with global ambitions
8
Talanx in a nutshell - Retail Germany
Key figures
Share in 2013 group GWP1
32%
2013 business mix (GWP)
22%
6,954
3,623
3,563
(2%)
Net premium earned
5,605
2,663
2,613
(2%)
(1,515)
(732)
(808)
n/m
1,786
872
937
+7%
161
90
97
+8%
102.4
99.9
101.2 +1.3 pts
3.0
4.0
4.4 +0.4 pts
78%
Life
Non-life
Combined ratio (net)2 in %
FY2013 6M 2013 6M 2014 Change
Recent trends
Premium decline stopped in Q2 thanks to slight growth in Life business and 8% y/y growth in Non-Life
Large losses of €20m from storm “Ela” in June 2014 affect 6M combined ratio by ~3%pts
Cost ratio in 6M 2014 declined by 3.0%pts. to 32.8% y/y
Slight improvement in 6M RoI to 4.4% (6M 2013: 4.3%)
~50% of anticipated 2014 ZZR allocation booked (forecast of ~€308m for FY2014; FY 2013: €313m, both according
to HGB). Total ZZR stock expected to rise to slightly above the €1bn-level until year-end 2014
1
2
Including interest income on funds withheld and contract deposits; net, property/casualty only
Strong German retail insurance business – more than 80% from B2B distribution channels (2013)
9
Talanx in a nutshell - Retail International
Key figures
Share in 2013
group GWP1
19%
2013 business
split (GWP)
34%
2013 geographic
split (GWP)
21%
51%
66%
Non-Life
Life
28%
CEE/CIS2
LatAm2
Western Europe2
FY2013 6M 2013 6M 2014 Change
4,220
2,151
2,255
+5%
Net premium earned
3,513
1,748
1,912
+9%
32
17
14
(18%)
284
146
156
+7%
185
113
124
+10%
Combined ratio (net) in %
95.8
94.9
95.3 +0.4 pts
5.9
7.8
8.4 +0.6 pts
Recent trends
6M 2014 top-line growth of 5% burdened by currency effects (currency-adj.:+10.7%). Q2 2014 was flat
Significant GWP improvement in Brazil, gaining further momentum in Q2 2014
Life-wise, strong single-premium business in Italy continues, while lower momentum in Poland
6M 2014 combined ratio slightly up by 0.4%pts due to initial consolidation effects. Adj. combined ratio improved by 1%pt to 95.6%
Ordinary investment income benefits from higher interest rates in Brazil, slightly compensated by interest rate decline in Poland
Turkey continues positive trend in Q2 2014 (6M 2014 EBIT: €1.5m)
1 Based
2
on total GWP adjusted for 50.2% stake in Hannover Re
CEE/CIS including Turkey and Russia; LatAm including Mexico; Western Europe including Italy, Austria, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg
Focus on major growth markets in Latin America and CEE
10
Talanx in a nutshell - Reinsurance
Key figures
Share in 2013 group GWP1 GWP development (total, €bn)
Non-Life
Life / Health
32%
13.8
FY2013 6M 2013 6M 2014 FY2013 6M 2013 6M 2014
14.0
12.1
7,818
4,097
4,078
6,145
3,130
2,987
Net premium earned
6,866
3,404
3,370
5,360
2,787
2,469
811
378
412
610
315
299
1,097
567
533
139
130
152
94.9
94.2
95.1
-
-
-
Comb.Ratio2
2011
2012
in %
2013
Recent trends
Non-Life
6M 2014 GWP slightly down by -0.5% y/y (adj. for currency
effects: +2.0%) with growth effects mainly from Southeast Asia
and China. NPE -1.0% y/y (curr.-adj.:+1.6%)
Large losses of €105m (3.1% of NPE) below budget (€276m for
6M 2014)
Conservative loss reserving policy maintained in particular for
the large loss budget
Net investment income increased mainly due to normalised
results from inflation swaps
Other income/expenses in line with expectations; not impacted
by positive currency effects as in 2013
Reinsurance
FY2013
6M 2013
6M 2014
15.9
15.4
15.1
Life / Health
6M GWP: -1.8% on curr.-adj. level, mainly due to reduced premiums
from enhanced annuities business, single large transactions, run-off of
US mortality block (ING); increased volume from UK-BAT
Technical result benefited mainly from improved result in US mortality
Net investment income at expected level, minor impact from ModCo
derivatives
Other income improved mainly due to reduced collateral cost for our US
business
1
2
Incl. expenses on funds withheld and contract deposits; net
Hannover Re is one of the largest and most profitable reinsurers globally
11
Talanx in a nutshell – Sources for growth
International growth
Industrial Lines
Increase retention
Retail Germany
Lever successful bancassurance
Elimination of cost disadvantages
Growth in selected emerging markets
Role-out of best practise examples
Reinsurance
Efficient cycle management
Expansion into emerging markets
12
I
II
Outlook and targets
Appendix
13
Outlook for Talanx Group 20141,3
Gross written premium2
+2-3%
Return on investment
≥ 3.4%
Group net income
≥ €700m
Return on equity
~ 10%
Dividend payout ratio
35 - 45% target range
2014 net income outlook with implied capacity to bear in sum another ~€650m of large losses in H2 2014
On divisional level, Talanx expects gross written premium growth of +3-5% in Industrial Lines, -(1-2)% in Retail Germany, +4-8% in Retail International and a flat to
low single-digit growth rate in Reinsurance
3 The outlook is subject to a thorough assessment of the Life Insurance Reform Act (“LIRA”) impact on German retail activities
1
2
Targets are subject to no large losses exceeding budget (cat),
no turbulences on capital markets (capital), and no material currency fluctuations (currency)
14
Outlook and targets – Mid-term target matrix
Segments
Group
Key figures
Strategic targets
≥ 750 bps above risk free1
Return on equity
Group net income growth
~ 10%
Dividend payout ratio
35 - 45%
Return on investment2
Industrial Lines
Gross premium
≥ 3.5%
growth3
3 - 5%
Combined ratio
≤ 96%
EBIT margin4
≥ 10%
Retention rate
Retail Germany
60 - 65%
Gross premium growth
≥ 0%
Combined ratio (non-life)
≤ 97%
New business margin (life)
≥ 2%
EBIT margin4
≥ 4.5%
Gross premium growth3
≥ 10%
Combined ratio (non-life)
≤ 96%
Value of New Business (VNB) growth
EBIT margin4
Non-life reinsurance
≥ 5%
Gross premium growth
3 - 5%
Combined ratio
≤ 96%
EBIT margin4
Life & health reinsurance
≥ 10%
Gross premium
growth3
5 - 7%
Value of New Business (VNB) growth
EBIT
margin4
financing and longevity business
EBIT margin4 mortality and health business
1
2
15
Risk-free rate is defined as the 5-year rolling average of the 10-year German
government bond yield
Derived from actual asset duration. Currently ~ 6.5 years, therefore the minimum
return is the 13-year average of 13-year German government bond yield.
Annually rolling
5 - 10%
3
Organic growth only; currency neutral
4
EBIT/net premium earned
≥ 10%
≥ 2%
≥ 6%
Note: growth targets are on p.a. basis. They are based on 2012 results.
I
II
Outlook and targets
Appendix
16
Appendix - FY2013 target achievement
Return on Investment
GWP growth
in €bn
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
+12.6%
30.0
25.0
+10.1%
+9.3%
+3.6%
2010
2011
+5.6%
20.0
4.2%
3.7%
4.0%
4.3%
15.0
4.0%
10.0
5.0
0.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013 Outlook Rol > 3.5%
2009
2012
2013
2013 Outlook GWP growth ≥4%
Net income and Payout
Return on Equity
in mn €
target ROE
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
11.8%
10.0%
10.0%
10.6%
4.5%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Outlook RoE ≥ 750 bps + risk-free1
2013
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
(€1.05
p.s.)
626
485
2
17
750
515
216
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Outlook Net income ~€700m; pay-out ratio 35-45%2
Risk-free rate is defined as the 5-year rolling average of the 10-year German government bond yield (ROE target 2013: 9.8%)
pay-out ratio 2013: 39.8% (2012: 42.1%)
Note: figures restated on the base of IAS8; 2013 Outlook reflects increased targets as presented in Aug 2013
1
(€1.20
p.s.3)
2013
Appendix – 6M 2014 results – Key financials
Summary of 6M 2014
Comments
€m, IFRS
6M 2014 6M 2013
Change
Net premium earned
14,975
11,308
14,966
11,498
+0 %
(2) %
(775)
(716)
n/m
Net income after minorities
1,948
1,005
381
1,877
1,032
410
+4 %
(3) %
(7) %
Key ratios
Combined ratio non-life
insurance and reinsurance
Return on investment
Balance sheet
Investments under
own management
Goodwill
6M 2014 6M 2013
Change
96.4%
96.1%
0.3%pts
4.0%
4.0%
0.0%pts
6M 2014 FY2013
Change
GWP virtually flat (+0.1%), negatively impacted
by currency effects (currency-adj.: +2.1%) and
more selective Reinsurance underwriting.
However, apart from Life/Health Reinsurance, all
segments most recently with positive growth
momentum
Positive growth contribution from Industrial Lines
and Retail International
Combined ratio slightly increased by 0.3%pts to
96.4%, impacted by above-average man-made
large losses, and impact from storm “Ela”
90,252
86,310
+5 %
Return on investment remained flat at 4.0%
1,109
1,105
+0 %
Total assets
139,699
132,853
+5 %
Technical provisions
96,829
91,717
+6 %
6M 2014 net income (€381m) exceeds 6M 2013
level, when adjusting for the base effect of partial
disposal of SwissLife stake (~€100m)
Total shareholders' equity
11,925
11,181
+7 %
Shareholders' equity
7,645
7,184
+6 %
Shareholders’ equity up to €7,645m, or €30.24
per share. Solvency I ratio up to 224.8%
(FY2013: 210.2%)
Note: numbers adjusted on the basis of IAS8
6M 2014 in line with target – significant base effect from SwissLife disposal in 2013
18
Appendix - Large losses1 in 6M 2014 (I)
Primary
insurance
(€m, net)
Snowstorm, Japan
08 February
Storm “Ela”
German, Belgium,
France
07 – 10 June
9
40
33
73
40
42
82
Aviation
5
31
36
Property
100
32
132
Total man-made
losses
105
63
168
Total large losses
145
105
250
Impact on combined ratio (incurred)
Total large losses (6M 2013)
19
Total large loss
burden of €250m
(6M 2013: €419m)
Talanx Group
9
Total Nat Cat
1
Reinsurance
definition „large loss“: in excess of €10m gross
5.2% pts
3.1% pts
4.1% pts
159
260
419
Industrial Lines was
affected by various
large losses in
Property. Storm
“Ela” impacted
Industrial Lines and
Retail Germany
(each ~€20m) and
Reinsurance (€33m)
Net burden of manmade large losses of
€105m in Industrial
Lines and €63m in
Reinsurance
2014 net income
outlook with implied
capacity to bear in
sum another
~€650m of large
losses in H2 2014
Appendix - Large losses in 6M 2014 (II)
Storm “Ela”: Regional exposure of Retail Germany
Source: www.unwetterzentrale.de, Perils AG, Talanx Nat Cat Survey 2014 (basis: 31. Dec. 2013)
Storm “Ela” hit areas where Retail Germany is most exposed
20
Appendix - Solvency capital position
Solvency I capital position
Comments
(€bn)
202%
225%
210%
225%
As of 30 June 2014, available funds include
€1.3bn of subordinated debt2
8.7
8.4
Talanx has extensive experience in innovative
capital management
8.2
6.8
3.7
3.4
2011
2012
Available funds
Solvency I
1
2
3.9
2013
3.9
Goodwill of €1.1bn as of 30 June 2014 (relative
to shareholders’ equity excl. minorities of
€7.6bn)
6M 2014
Solvency capital requirements
margin1
Talanx Group based on the solvency of HDI V.a.G. (HDI V.a.G. is the relevant legal entity for the calculation of group solvency from a regulatory perspective)
€1.3bn of the Group’s total subordinated debt (€2.4bn) are eligible for Solvency I capital (after accounting for minority interest and capped by regulatory thresholds)
Solid solvency and high-quality capital with relatively low goodwill supporting optimal balance
sheet strength
21
Appendix - Rating overview
Current financial strength ratings
Standard & Poor’s
Grade
last update
Talanx Group1
Talanx Primary Group2
last update
Hannover Re subgroup3
Outlook
A. M. Best
Grade
30/06/14
-
Stable
30/06/14
AA–
Outlook
16/05/14
-
A+
rating of Talanx Primary Group
Stable
A
Stable
-
-
22/05/14
A+
Modifiers
Anchor rating a+
Business Risk
Profile
Financial Risk
Profile
Modifiers
Strong
Very Strong
Neutral
IICRA 4)
Capital &
Earnings
ERM
Intermediate
Risk
Very Strong
Strong
Competitive
Position
Risk Position
Management &
Governance
Strong
Intermediate
Risk
Satisfactory
Risk Position
Liquidity
Strong
Exceptional
Stable
The designation used by A. M. Best for the Group is “Talanx AG and its leading non-life direct insurance operation and its leading life insurance operation”
This rating applies to the core members of Talanx Primary Group (the subgroup of primary insurers in Talanx Group)
3 This rating applies to Hannover Re and its major core companies. The Hannover Re subgroup corresponds to the Talanx Reinsurance segment
4 Insurance Industry and Country Risk Assessment
1
2
Financial strength underpinned by S&P and A.M. Best ratings
22
Appendix - Focus on insurance risk
Risk components of Talanx Group1
1%
8%
16%
Comments
Other risk
Operational risk
Further life risk
Total market risk of 37%, of solvency capital
requirements, which is comfortably below the
50% limit
Risk capacity priority for insurance risk
38%
Non-life risk 2
Non-life is the dominating insurance risk
category, comprising premium and reserve risk,
NatCat and counterparty default risk
Equities ~1% of investments under own
management
37%
Market risk
3
GIIPS sovereign exposure 1.8% of total assets
(6M 2014)
Talanx Group
Figures show approximate risk categorisation, in terms of solvency capital requirements,
of the Talanx Group after minorities, after tax, post diversification effects as of 2013
2 Includes premium and reserve risk (non-life), net NatCat and counterparty default risk
3 Refers to the combined effects from market developments on assets and liabilities
1
Market risk sensitivity (limited to less than 50% of solvency capital requirement)
is deliberately low
23
Appendix – B2B distribution as a key differentiator
Linkage between different Group segments
Industrial Lines
Retail Germany
Excellence in B2B2C channels1
Bancassurance
Brazil
B2B2C
Automotive
Core value
proposition:
B2B competence
Retail
Brokers
B2B2C
1
Reinsurance
Employee
affinity
business
Samples of clients/partners
Superior service of corporate relationships lies at heart of our value proposition
24
Industrial
Appendix - HDI V.a.G. history and structure
Overview
V.a.G.
HDI V.a.G. is a mutual insurance company and
majority-owner of the holding company Talanx
AG
The organisational setup reflects the historic
roots of HDI, an association of important
companies of the German industry that offers
mutual insurance cover
Approx. 0.8m members of HDI V.a.G.
Alignment of interests of HDI V.a.G. and
Talanx Group through
- Providing efficient and reliable insurance to
mutual members at market rates, often
syndicate-based
- Same decision makers: Mr Haas, Dr
Hinsch, Dr Querner
- HDI V.a.G. has no other investments
besides Talanx and is interested to further
strengthen and enable Talanx to provide
stable insurance capacity to industrial
clients
- Talanx and HDI V.a.G. committed to capital
market oriented dividend policy
25
History
1903
Foundation as ‘Haftpflichtverband der
deutschen Eisen- und Stahlindustrie‘ in
Frankfurt
1953
Companies of all industry sectors are able
to contract insurance with HDI V.a.G.
1966
Foundation of Hannover Rückversicherungs AG
1991
Diversification into life insurance
1994
IPO of Hannover Rückversicherung AG
1998
Renaming of HDI Beteiligungs AG to
Talanx AG
2001
Start transfer of insurance business from
HDI V.a.G. to individual entities
2006
Acquisition of Gerling insurance group by
Talanx AG
2012
IPO of Talanx AG
2014
Listing at Warsaw Stock Exchange
Talanx Investor Relations
Financial Calendar
13 November 2014
Interim Report 9M 2014
23 March 2015
Annual Report 2014
7 May 2015
AGM 2015
11 May 2015
Interim Report Q1 2015
12 August 2015
Interim Report 6M 2015
26
Contact
Talanx AG
Riethorst 2
30659 Hannover
Germany
ir@talanx.com
Carsten Werle, CFA
Phone: +49 511 3747 2231
carsten.werle@talanx.com
Marcus Sander, CFA
Phone: +49 511 3747 2368
marcus.sander@talanx.com
Wiebke Erler
Phone: +49 511 3747 2435
wiebke.erler@talanx.com
Christian Marx
Phone: +49 511 3747 2291
christian.marx@talanx.com
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are based on certain assumptions, expectations and opinions of the
management of Talanx AG (the "Company") or cited from third-party sources. These statements are, therefore, subject to certain known
or unknown risks and uncertainties. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, affect the Company’s
business activities, business strategy, results, performance and achievements. Should one or more of these factors or risks or
uncertainties materialize, actual results, performance or achievements of the Company may vary materially from those expressed or
implied as being expected, anticipated, intended, planned, believed, sought, estimated or projected in the relevant forward-looking
statement.
The Company does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor does the
Company accept any responsibility for the the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. The Company neither intends, nor
assumes any obligation, to update or revise these forward-looking statements in light of developments which differ from those
anticipated.
Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be interpreted as
having been adopted or endorsed by the Company as being accurate. Presentations of the company usually contain supplemental
financial measures (e.g., return on investment, return on equity, gross/net combined ratios, solvency ratios) which the Company
believes to be useful performance measures but which are not recognised as measures under International Financial Reporting
Standards, as adopted by the European Union ("IFRS"). Therefore, such measures should be viewed as supplemental to, but not as
substitute for, balance sheet, statement of income or cash flow statement data determined in accordance with IFRS. Since not all
companies define such measures in the same way, the respective measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures used
by other companies. This presentation is dated as of 7 October 2014. Neither the delivery of this presentation nor any further
discussions of the Company with any of the recipients shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no
change in the affairs of the Company since such date. This material is being delivered in conjunction with an oral presentation by the
Company and should not be taken out of context.
27

Document 6562622

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