Global Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights Macroeconomics

October 24, 2014
Global Markets Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
Weekly Performance
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Equity
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will be closely watched for further clues on timing of rate hike. Markets will also
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Besides the Fed, BOJ and RBNZ will also meet but no action is expected of
either central banks.
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Malaysia
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China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Eurozone and China also offered some relief while US data turned out more
Currency
EU
Japan
expected moderation in 3Q GDP to 7.3% YOY, allaying fear of a steep
Macro
US
UK
This week’s dataflow was not as bad as feared. China reported a less than
10-y Govt Bond
Yields
↓
↓
slowdown in the China economy. Flash readings of PMI manufacturing across
upbeat this week. Contained price pressure as evidenced in numerous CPI
readings suggest global central banks will be able to pace their policy
normalization.
•
FOMC meeting will take center stage next week, and chances are it will mark
the end of QE3. Again, the accompanying statement and Yellen’s comments
be swamped by first tier US data most notably first estimate of 3Q GDP.
•
Elsewhere, the slew of confidence readings out of Eurozone is expected to
reaffirm pessimism over growth prospects in the region. Back home, BNM
indicators are expected to point to gradual moderation in financial and
monetary conditions in September.
Forex
•
Weekly MYR Performance
MYR appreciated 0.29% WOW vs the USD to 3.2740 amid more positive
market sentiments that spurred demand for the local unit. MYR strengthened
against all G10s, the most vs JPY and ended the week mixed against its
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
anticipation of sustained USD strength as the FOMC convenes where it will
-1.40
CHF
likely announce the end of QE3. We would however like to caution that any
-1.38
MYR
JPY
Depreciated
exceptional dovishness from the Fed could pare back US rate hike
-0.80
MYR
Appreciated
-0.29
USD
-0.28
HKD
-0.23
-1.00
-0.50
•
The Dollar Index regained lost ground to close the week 1.0% stronger at
85.84 as the release of more upbeat economic data revived growth optimism
and Fed rate hike expectations. The greenback gained against 8 G10s and
SGD
weakened only marginally vs the CAD and Aussie. Moving into next week,
CNY
AUD
-1.50
expectations and limit USD advance, hence alleviating downward pressure on
MYR.
GBP
-0.23
-2.00
regional peers. MYR is likely to see renewed weakness next week in
EUR
-1.45
FOMC meeting will take center stage. Noises surrounding timing of the Fed
rate normalization will be the key catalyst driving USD movement. Any
0.08
0.00
indication by the Fed that policy normalization is on track will be USD positive
0.50
and vice versa.
Fixed Income
•
Indicative Yields
UST yields seen retracing higher this week albeit on range-trade mode. Bond
yields seen notching few bps higher after reports showed housing starts rose
more than forecast whilst US CPI unexpectedly rose for the month of
September. Meanwhile sale of $7b worth 30-year TIPS saw a BTC of 2.29x,
well received after inflation unexpectedly inched higher for the month of
September. We opine yields movement will continue to be data dependent
ahead of upcoming US FOMC meeting scheduled on 28-29th October.
Language of the policy statement remains a key watch for further clues on US
rates outlook. On a related note, we expect tapering completion to be detailed
in the same meeting.
•
On the local front, MYR govvies ended range-bound with thinner trading
volume versus previous week amid a shorter trading session in conjunction
with Deepavali public holiday. Benchmark yields ended little changed, but
noticeably saw MGS 9/21 and MGS 7/24 reaching parity, settling at 3.78% at
time of writing. We opine a significant kink on the 7-year could again appeal to
investors in terms of tactical strategy given the same yield but shorter duration
play. Tracking thinner trading volumes in the govvies space, similar trends
observed in the PDS trading space. We continue to see bargain hunts on the
Please see important disclosure at the end of the report
AA segment, as investors continue to search for yield pickup. Primary pipeline
is expected to remain fluid with prospective issuances from Genting Plantation
via Benih Restu and Jimah East Power. Issuers are expected to tap the MYR
bonds space given that interest rates are still conducive for funding initiatives.
1
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Contents
2
Macroeconomics
Page 3
Forex
Page 4
Trading Idea
Page 5
FX Technicals
Page 6
Fixed Income
Page 7
Economic Calendar
Page 9
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review
Macroeconomics
•
This week’s dataflow was not as bad as feared. China reported a less
than expected moderation in 3Q GDP to 7.3% YOY, allaying fear of a
steep slowdown in the China economy. Reacceleration in industrial
production as well as slight moderation in retail sales growth in
September implied growth would stay close to the government’s target
of about 7.5% this year and that the government would most likely not
resort to fiscal or monetary stimulus.
•
Just released flash readings of PMI manufacturing and services in the
Eurozone also offered some relief as the latest prints signaled
economic activities did not deteriorate in October. PMI manufacturing
index unexpectedly picked up to 50.7 while PMI services held steady
at 52.4. The corresponding indices from China and Japan showed
manufacturing activities expanded at a faster pace in October.
•
US data also painted a better picture. Besides the fall in 4-week
moving average jobless claims to a 14-year low, there were also signs
the US housing market is regaining momentum and manufacturing
activities were expanding at a moderate pace, albeit at varying degree
over different districts.
•
Numerous CPI readings confirmed overall inflationary pressure
remained very subdued globally including those in the US, Australia,
6-month Macro Outlook
US
EU
UK
Japan
Australia
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
Economy
Inflation
Interest
Rate
Currency
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New Zealand, Singapore and even Malaysia. Contained price
pressures are expected to allow global central banks to take all the
time they need before nudging interest rates higher amid prevailing
growth uncertainties. This week, Bank of Canada and Norges Bank
stood pat and so was BSP. Meanwhile, BOE minutes revealed that
policy makers were reluctant to normalize rates as inflation has
remained below the BOE’s target and that policy makers saw growing
growth risks from slowdown in the Eurozone.
The Week Ahead…
•
•
FOMC meeting will take center stage next week, and chances are it
will mark the end of QE3. Again, the accompanying statement and
Yellen’s comments will be closely watched for further clues on timing
of rate hike. Markets will also be swamped by first tier US data namely
first estimate of 3Q GDP, durable goods orders, personal income &
spending, PCE core, consumer confidence and several regional Fed
indicators. Besides the Fed, BOJ and RBNZ will also meet but no
action is expected of either central banks.
Elsewhere, the slew of confidence readings out of Eurozone is
expected to reaffirm pessimism over growth prospects in the region
and unemployment rate will unlikely budge from its current high. UK
will see the release of nationwide house prices and mortgage
approvals that will likely reaffirm a softening housing market while GfK
consumer confidence and net consumer credit are expected to show
consumers may have taken a beating.
•
Back in Asia, Japan’s calendar is packed - retail trade, overall
household spending, jobless rate, housing starts and industrial
production while China data is limited to industrial profits and leading
index. Hong Kong exports, Singapore jobless rate, and Vietnam key
reports including exports, industrial production and retail sales are
also in the pipeline. Back home, BNM indicators are expected to point
to gradual moderation in financial and monetary conditions in
September.
3
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review and Outlook
Forex
•
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
EUR
-1.45
-1.40
CHF
-1.38
JPY
-0.80
GBP
MYR
Appreciated
-0.29
USD
-0.28
HKD
-0.23
-1.50
-1.00
like to caution that any exceptional dovishness from the Fed could pare
back US rate hike expectations and limit USD advance, and hence
alleviating downward pressure on MYR.
•
-0.50
0.08
0.00
0.50
Source: Bloomberg
•
USD vs the G10s (% WOW)
JPY
NZD USD
-1.79
-1.66
-1.50
EUR
-1.26
-1.22
DKK
CHF
USD
Appreciated
-0.50
-0.35
NOK
•
GBP
AUD
0.07
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
risks from a Eurozone economic slump and well-contained inflationary
pressure at well below BOE’s target. Tonight’s 3Q GDP preliminary
reading will be key in deciding GBP direction in the week ahead.
Source: Bloomberg
•
SGD
-0.06 TWD
HKD
0.02
CNY
THB
USD
MYR
Appreciated
PHP
USD
Depreciated
0.06
0.13
0.37
from RBA minutes was rather muted. Expect Aussie to see limited gains
next week as markets are expected to adopt a cautious stance ahead of
0.52
0.92
0.50
1.00
1.50
Source: Bloomberg
4
FOMC meeting and decision.
1.63
IDR
0.00
AUD: AUD strengthened against 9 G10s this week including the USD
where it managed to eke out a 0.07% gain. Firming risk appetite as well
as relatively decent Chinese data lent support to the Aussie while impact
INR
-0.50
•
0.29
KRW
JPY: JPY was the worst performing major currency this week with the
return of risk sentiments that dented its safety appeal. It weakened
against all G10s and fell 1.79% WOW against the USD to 108.27, its
weakest level in 13 days. No change to our view for a bearish JPY amid
extended economic woes, which would affirm the need for further
monetary policy support from BOJ.
USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW)
-0.23
GBP: GBP lost 0.35% WOW to 1.6030 against a stronger USD. The
sterling however managed to advance against 7 G10s. As expected, early
week gains in the sterling was taken out by BOE minutes that showed
unwillingness among policy makers to raise rates amid downside growth
0.25
CAD
EUR: EUR bear continues to rule as the currency weakened against 7
G10s. Against the USD, EUR fell 1.27% WOW to 1.2646, its lowest in
nine days. Slightly better than expected PMI manufacturing and services
limited losses in the EUR yesterday but dimming growth prospects and
sustained stimulus bets are expected to exert a bearish bias on the EUR.
Unemployment rate that is expected to stay stubbornly high and CPI that
will likely reinforce deflationary threats are all negative for the EUR.
SEK Depreciated
-1.27
USD: The Dollar Index regained lost ground to close the week 1.0%
stronger at 85.84 as the release of more upbeat economic data revived
growth optimism and Fed rate hike expectations. The greenback gained
against 8 G10s and weakened only marginally vs the CAD and Aussie.
Moving into next week, FOMC meeting will take center stage. Noises
surrounding timing of the Fed rate normalization will be the key catalyst
driving USD movement. Any indication by the Fed that policy
normalization is on track will be USD positive and vice versa.
CNY
AUD
-2.00
next week in anticipation of sustained USD strength as the FOMC
convenes that will likely resulted in the end of QE3. We would however
MYR
Depreciated
SGD
-0.23
MYR: MYR appreciated 0.29% WOW vs the USD to 3.2740 amid more
positive market sentiments that spurred demand for the local unit. MYR
strengthened against all G10s, the most vs JPY and ended the week
mixed against its regional peers. MYR is likely to see renewed weakness
Fixed Income & Economic Research
2.00
•
SGD: SGD weakened 0.23% WOW against the stronger USD to 1.2771
but still managed to outperform 8 G10s amid demand for riskier assets.
SGD could exhibit a weakening bias next week as markets thread
cautiously ahead of FOMC meeting.
Weekly Market Highlights
Technical Analysis:
Currency
Current price
14-day RSI
Support - Resistance
EURUSD
1.2656
43
1.2541
GBPUSD
1.6039
42
1.5937
USDJPY
107.9900
55
USDCNY
6.1202
37
USDSGD
1.2762
AUDUSD
0.8755
NZDUSD
Moving Averages
Call
30 Days
100 Days
200 Days
1.2837
1.2541
1.2837
1.2740
Negative
1.6252
1.5937
1.6252
1.6167
Negative
105.71
109.99
105.7100
109.9900
108.0700
Positive
6.1128
6.1491
6.1128
6.1491
6.1335
Positive
57
1.2689
1.2797
1.2689
1.2797
1.2721
Positive
43
0.8677
0.8847
0.8677
0.8847
0.8813
Negative
0.7833
41
0.7735
0.8005
0.7735
0.8005
0.7940
Negative
USDMYR
3.2810
62
3.2456
3.2892
3.2456
3.2892
3.2577
Positive
EURMYR
4.1521
49
4.0884
4.2017
4.0884
4.2017
4.1519
Positive
GBPMYR
5.2617
51
5.1937
5.3189
5.1937
5.3189
5.2650
Neutral
JPYMYR
3.0381
52
2.9647
3.0950
2.9647
3.0950
3.0146
Neutral
CHFMYR
3.4416
50
3.3771
3.4843
3.3771
3.4843
3.4363
Neutral
SGDMYR
2.5709
57
2.5491
2.5805
2.5491
2.5805
2.5622
Positive
AUDMYR
2.8726
48
2.8432
2.8840
2.8432
2.8840
2.8723
Neutral
NZDMYR
2.5703
43
2.5285
2.6131
2.5285
2.6131
2.5872
Neutral
Trader’s Comment:
There’s not a whole lot of data to tap on as markets in general consolidates. Equities saw a selldown amid worries of a
global slowdown and concerns about potential negative corporate earnings weigh from a strong dollar and economic
th
worries in the Eurozone. All eyes towards this 26 October’s EU banks stress test which may decide the move for the
next week.
USD continues to slowly regain ground with help from stronger front end treasury yields which have since been
recovering from last week’s lows with USDJPY staging the best recovering from 105.20 levels to 108.30 highs before
settling around 108.00 at time of writing. Not a lot to write about with various pairs still trading within their broad range
amid consolidation mode.
On the local front, USDMYR still continues to trade within the 3.2500-3.2900 broad range with upside bias. Intervention
fears so far keeping the pair in check as BNM continues to defend the SGDMYR cross at 2.5800 levels. Broad picture
is still for a stronger USD amid expectations that BNM will hold rates steady ahead of their November MPC and a
broadly stronger USD.
5
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
FX Technical Charts
USDMYR
EURMYR
Resistance: 3.2892
Support: 3.2456
Resistance: 4.2017
Support: 4.0884
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
GBPMYR
JPYMYR
Resistance: 5.3189
Resistance: 3.0950
Support: 5.1937
Source: Bloomberg
Support: 2.9647
Source: Bloomberg
AUDMYR
SGDMYR
Resistance: 2.5805
Resistance: 2.8840
Support: 2.5491
Support: 2.8432
Source: Bloomberg
6
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review & Outlook
Fixed Income
•
%
Benchmark MGS Yields
mode. Bond yields seen notching few bps higher after reports
showed housing starts rose more than forecast whilst US CPI
unexpectedly rose for the month of September. Meanwhile sale of
$7b worth 30-year TIPS saw a BTC of 2.29x, well received after
3Y MGS
5Y MGS
10Y MGS
5.2
UST yields seen retracing higher this week albeit on range-trade
4.7
4.2
inflation unexpectedly inched higher for the month of September. We
opine yields movement will continue to be data dependent ahead of
3.7
upcoming US FOMC meeting scheduled on 28-29th October.
Language of the policy statement remains a key watch for further
3.2
2.7
clues on US outlook. On a related note, we expect tapering
completion to be detailed in the same meeting.
bps
MGS Yield Spread
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
2.2
•
3/10Y
200
On the local front, MYR govvies ended range-bound with thinner
trading volume versus previous week amid a shorter trading session
in conjunction with Deepavali public holiday. Benchmark yields ended
little changed, but noticeably saw MGS 9/21 and MGS 7/24 reaching
parity, settling at 3.78% at time of writing. We opine a significant kink
on the 7-year could again appeal to investors in terms of tactical
strategy given the same yield but shorter duration play. Thinner
trading volume this week seen tracking the softer Ringgit
3/5Y
150
100
performance during the week, with the greenback continuing to stage
a strong rebound.
50
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
-50
Jan-08
0
Going into next week, we expect trading sentiments to gradually
improve with most investors returning to their respective trading
desks. Upcoming details on reopening of GII 11/17 will be closely
watched by investors, scheduled to be announced soon. We are
targeting a tender size of circa RM3.5b for this tender.
%
MYR IRS Curve
6.0
3Y IRS
5Y IRS
7Y IRS
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
2.0
Jan-08
•
•
Tracking thinner trading volumes in the govvies space, similar trends
observed in the PDS trading space. We continue to see bargain
hunts on the AA segment, as investors continue to search for yield
pickup. At time of writing, notable trades transacted include Westport
’22 trading tighter to end at 4.49%, whilst Golden Assets ’17 traded at
4.79%. Primary pipeline is expected to remain fluid with prospective
issuances from Genting Plantation via Benih Restu and Jimah East
Power. Issuers are expected to tap the MYR bonds space given that
interest rates are still conducive for funding initiatives.
Rating Actions
Issuer
PDS Description
Rating/Outlook
Action
Indera Persada Sdn Bhd
RM280 million Fixed Rate Serial Bonds
AA1 (Stable)
Reaffirmed
National Bank of Abu Dhabi
Financial institution ratings
Senior and Subordinated Medium-Term Notes
AAA (Stable)
Reaffirmed
Pinnacle Tower Sdn Bhd
RM50 million Islamic Commercial Papers (ICP) and
RM400 million Islamic Medium Term Notes (IMTN)
RM1.5 billion Medium-Term Notes Programme
(2014/2034) and RM1.5 billion Commercial Papers
Programme (2014/2021)
RM3.5 billion MTN Programme (2010/2030) (funding
conduit for Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC)
Sukuk Musharakah Medium-Term Notes I and II
Programmes (2008/2023)
P1/AAA (Stable)
Reaffirmed
AA2/P1 (Stable)
Assigned
AAA/P1 (Stable)
Reaffirmed
AA2 (Stable)
Reaffirmed
AA2 (Stable)
Reaffirmed
Tan Chong Motor Holdings Berhad
ADCB Finance (Cayman) Limited
Lingkaran Trans Kota Sdn Bhd's
First Resources Limited
7
RM2.0 billion Sukuk Musharakah Islamic Medium-Term
Notes Programme (2012/2022).
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Senari Synergy Sdn Bhd
RM380 million Islamic Medium-Term Notes (IMTN)
Programme
AAA (fg) (Stable)
Reaffirmed
Genting Plantations Berhad
Benih Restu Berhad (funding
conduit for Genting Plantations)
Corporate Ratings
Proposed RM1.5 billion 15-year Sukuk Programme
(2013/2028)
AA2 (Stable)
AA2 (Stable)
Reaffirmed
New Pantai Expressway Sdn Bhd
RM490 million Senior Notes
RM250 million Junior Notes
AA3 (Stable)
AA3 (Negative)
Reaffirmed, Junior
Notes placed on
Negative Watch
Source: MARC, RAM
8
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Economic Calendar Release Date
Date
Country
10/31
Reporting
Period
Survey
Prior
Revised
--
Money Supply M3 YoY
Sep
--
4.80%
11/06
BNM OPR
Nov
--
3.25%
--
11/07
Exports
Sept
--
1.7%
--
Foreign reserves
Oct 31
--
--
--
Markit US Services PMI
10/27
MY
Event
US
10/28
Oct P
--
58.9
--
Pending Home Sales MoM
Sep
1.0%
-1.0%
--
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
Oct
11.0
10.8
--
Durable Goods Orders
Sep
0.3%
-18.4%
--
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
Aug
5.70%
6.75%
--
Consumer Confidence Index
Oct
87.0
86.0
--
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Oct
10
14
--
24-Oct
--
11.6%
--
Fed QE3 Pace
Oct
--
$15B
--
Fed Pace of Treasury Pur
Oct
--
$10B
--
Fed Pace of MBS Purchases
Oct
--
$5B
--
FOMC Rate Decision
29-Oct
0.25%
0.25%
--
Initial Jobless Claims
25-Oct
--
--
--
10/29
MBA Mortgage Applications
10/30
10/31
11/03
11/04
GDP Annualized QoQ
3Q A
2.9%
4.60%
--
Personal Income
Sep
0.3%
0.30%
--
Personal Spending
Sep
0.1%
0.50%
--
PCE Core MoM
Sep
0.1%
0.10%
--
Chicago Purchasing Manager
Oct
61.0
60.5
--
Univ. of Michigan Confidence
Oct F
86.2
86.4
--
Markit PMI manufacturing
Oct F
--
--
--
ISM manufacturing
Oct
--
56.6
--
Construction spending
Sept
--
-0.8%
--
Trade balance
Sept
--
$40.1b
--
Factory orders
Sept
--
-10.1%
--
Nov
--
45.2
--
Oct 31
--
--
--
IBD/TIPP economic optimism
11/05
MBA mortgage applications
ADP employment change
Markit PMI services
ISM services
--
58.6
--
--
Oct
--
248K
--
Unemployment rate
Oct
--
5.9%
--
Economic Confidence
Oct
--
99.9
--
Consumer Confidence
Oct F
--
--
--
Oct
--
0.07
--
Business Climate Indicator
11/04
--
--
Change in nonfarm payroll
11/03
--
--
--
11/07
10/31
213K
Oct
Initial jobless claims
Eurozone
---
Nov 1
11/06
10/30
Oct
Oct F
Unemployment Rate
Sep
--
11.50%
--
CPI Core YoY
Oct A
--
0.80%
--
Markit PMI manufacturing
Oct F
--
--
--
PPI YOY
Sept
--
-1.4%
--
European Commission economic forecasts
11/05
11/06
9
Markit PMI services
Oct F
--
--
--
Retail sales MOM
Sept
--
1.2%
--
ECB main refinancing rate
Nov
--
0.05%
--
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
10/27
Germany
10/30
IFO Business Climate
Oct
--
104.7
IFO Current Assessment
Oct
--
110.5
--
IFO Expectations
Oct
--
99.3
--
Retail Sales MoM
Sep
--
2.50%
1.50%
Unemployment Change (000's)
Oct
--
12K
--
Unemployment Rate
Oct
--
6.70%
--
CPI YoY
Oct P
--
0.80%
--
11/03
Markit PMI manufacturing
Oct F
--
--
--
11/05
Markit PMI services
Oct F
--
--
--
11/06
Factory orders MOM
Sept
--
-5.7%
--
11/07
Industrial production MOM
Sept
--
-4.0%
--
Trade balance
Sept
--
14.1b
14.0b
Consumer Confidence
Oct
--
86
--
Consumer Spending MoM
Sep
--
0.70%
--
10/29
France
10/31
PPI MoM
Sep
--
-0.30%
--
11/03
Markit PMI manufacturing
Oct F
--
--
--
11/05
Markit PMI services
Oct F
--
--
--
11/07
Industrial production MOM
Sept
--
0.0%
--
10/28
Italy
10/31
Business Confidence
Oct
--
95.1
--
Economic Sentiment
Oct
--
86.6
--
Unemployment Rate
Sep P
--
12.30%
--
CPI EU Harmonized YoY
Oct P
--
-0.10%
---
PPI MoM
Sep
--
0.00%
11/03
Markit PMI manufacturing
Oct
--
50.7
--
11/05
Markit PMI services
Oct
--
48.8
--
CBI Reported Sales
Oct
--
31
--
10/27
UK
Nationwide House Px NSA YoY
Oct
--
9.40%
--
Net Consumer Credit
Sep
--
0.9B
--
Mortgage Approvals
Sep
--
64.2K
--
10/30
Lloyds Business Barometer
Oct
--
57
--
10/31
GfK Consumer Confidence
Oct
--
-1
--
11/03
Markit PMI construction
Oct
--
64.2
--
11/05
Markit PMI services
Oct
--
58.7
--
11/06
Industrial production MOM
Sept
--
0.0%
--
BOE rate
Nov
0.50%
0.50%
--
BOE asset purchase target
Nov
£375b
£375b
--
NIESR GDP estimate
Oct
--
0.7%
--
Retail trade YOY
Sept
0.8%
1.2%
--
Retail sales MOM
Sept
--
1.9%
--
Small biz confidence
Oct
--
47.6
--
Sept P
2.5%
-1.9%
--
Sep
3.60%
3.50%
--
10/29
10/28
Japan
10/29
10/31
Industrial production MOM
Japan
Jobless Rate
Overall Household Spending YoY
Sep
-4.00%
-4.70%
--
Natl CPI YoY
Sep
3.20%
3.30%
--
Housing Starts YoY
Sep
-17.0%
-12.50%
--
Construction Orders YoY
Sep
--
8.60%
--
31-Oct
--
Â¥270T
--
Markit PMI manufacturing
Oct F
--
52.8
--
Leading index
Sept P
--
104.4
--
Sep
--
-0.60%
--
BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target
11/04
11/06
10/28
10
--
China
Industrial Profits YoY
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
10/29
Leading Index
Sep
--
100.09
11/01
PMI manufacturing
Oct
--
51.1
--
11/03
PMI services
Oct
--
54.0
--
11/05
HSBC PMI services
HSBC PMI manufacturing
10/27
Hong Kong Exports YOY
11/03
Retail sales value YOY
11/05
10/31
HSBC PMI
Singapore
11/04
10/27-10/31
Vietnam
10/27
11/03
11/06-13
10/30
Australia
10/31
11/03
11/04
11/06
11/07
10/29
NZ
Unemployment rate SA
--
50.4
--
Oct
--
53.5
--
Sept
--
6.4%
--
Sept
--
3.4%
--
Oct
--
49.8
--
3Q P
1.90%
2.00%
---
PMI
Oct
--
50.5
Oct
--
51.9
--
Exports YTD YoY
Oct
13.40%
14.10%
--
Imports YTD YoY
Oct
11.10%
11.10%
--
Trade Balance
Oct
$200m
-$600M
--
Retail Sales YTD YoY
Oct
--
11.10%
--
Industrial Production YoY
Oct
--
8.60%
--
HSBC PMI manufacturing
Oct
--
51.7
--
Domestic vehicle sales
Oct
--
52.8%
--
HIA New Home Sales MoM
Sep
--
3.30%
--
Import price index QoQ
3Q
--
-3.00%
---
Export price index QoQ
3Q
--
-7.90%
PPI QoQ
3Q
--
-0.10%
--
PPI YoY
3Q
--
2.30%
--
Performance manufacturing index
Oct
--
46.5
--
Building approvals MOM
Sept
--
3.0%
---
Trade balance
Sept
--
-787m
Retail sales MOM
Sept
--
0.1%
--
RBA cash target rate
Nov 4
2.50%
2.50%
--
Employment change
Oct
--
-29.7K
--
Unemployment rate
Oct
--
6.1%
--
AiG construction index
Oct
--
59.1
--
ANZ Activity Outlook
Oct
--
37
--
ANZ Business Confidence
Oct
--
13.4
--
30-Oct
3.50%
3.50%
--
Sep
--
0.00%
--
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
10/31
Building Permits MoM
Unemployment rate
3Q
--
5.6%
--
Employment change QOQ
3Q
--
0.4%
--
Source: Bloomberg
11
Oct F
Electronics sector index
10/30
11/05
--
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets
Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong
18, Jalan Perak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 603-2773 0469
Fax: 603-2164 9305
Email: HLMarkets@hlbb.hongleong.com.my
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Fixed Income & Economic Research