Document 6576887
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Document 6576887
Result Update October 27, 2014 Current Wide Range in Q3FY15 $-Rev Guidance Continue; Maintain HOLD with TP of Rs.611 Previous CMP : Rs.581 Rating : HOLD Rating : HOLD Target : Rs.611 Target : Rs.611 STOCK INFO BSE NSE Bloomberg Reuters Sector Equity Capital (Rs mn) Face Value (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 52w H/L (Rs) Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) Q2FY15 Results Highlights Rs.mn $‐Rev Revenue EBIT PAT Wipro Ltd (Wipro) Q2FY15 performance was mixed-bag; revenue and PAT largely inline; EBIT below our estimates. IT services $-Revenue grew by 1.8% Q/Q to $1,772 mn (INSPL est $1,787 mn) led by IT services (2.4% Q/Q), partially offset by 3.4% Q/Q decline in BPO segment. Consolidated rupee revenue went up 5.1% Q/Q to Rs.118 bn (v/s Rs.114 bn in Q1FY15) driven by IT services (4.0% Q/Q) and Products (21.1% Q/Q) segments growth. % During the quarter, EBIT de-grew by 2.9% Q/Q to Rs.23.0 bn on account of 62.4% Q/Q decline in Products segment EBIT, partially offset by 0.1% Q/Q rise in IT Services EBIT. During the quarter, IT services EBIT growth remained muted due to two months impact of wage hike. IT Services EBIT margin contracted 80 bps Q/Q to 22.0% (v/s 22.8% in Q1FY15). The consolidated EBIT margin contracted 160 bps Q/Q to 19.5% (v/s 21.1% in Q1FY15). Interest Charge/other income during the quarter stood at Rs. 989 mn/ Rs. 5109 mn (v/s Rs. 888 mn/Rs.4,239 mn in Q1FY15), respectively. The company’s tax rate stood at 22.8% which led to tax outgo of Rs.6,199 mn (v/s 5,942 mn in Q1FY15). During the quarter, Wipro reported net forex gain of Rs.1323 mn (v/s Rs.52 mn in Q1FY15). Net profit went down 0.9% Q/Q to Rs20.8 bn, which is in-line with INSPL est. of Rs.20.8bn. Adjusting other income & forex, net profit went down 13.9% Q/Q to Rs14.4 bn (v/s Rs.16.7 bn in Q1FY15). Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research (as on Sep. 2014) Institutions Others, Incl Public Promoters 13.6 12.9 73.4 Source: BSE STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m WIPRO 1 SENSEX -1 3m 5 5 12m 13 27 Source: Capitaline, IndiaNivesh Research WIPRO v/s SENSEX Sensex Source: Capitaline, IndiaNivesh Research Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Mobile: +91 77383 93371, 99205 94087 Tel: +91 22 66188826 daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in Tel: +91 22 66188836 amar.mourya@indianivesh.in IndiaNivesh Research 20/Oct/14 06/Oct/14 22/Sep/14 08/Sep/14 28/Jul/14 25/Aug/14 14/Jul/14 11/Aug/14 30/Jun/14 16/Jun/14 02/Jun/14 21/Apr/14 19/May/14 07/Apr/14 05/May/14 24/Mar/14 10/Mar/14 27/Jan/14 24/Feb/14 13/Jan/14 10/Feb/14 30/Dec/13 16/Dec/13 02/Dec/13 21/Oct/13 18/Nov/13 04/Nov/13 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Amar Mourya Research Analyst Q2FY15 Q1FY15 Q2FY14 Q‐o‐Q % Y‐o‐Y % INSPL est Variance(%) Comments 1,772 1,740 1,631 1.8% 8.6% 1,787 -0.9% In-line 1,18,161 1,12,456 1,09,920 5.1% 7.5% 1,14,368 3.3% Above Est 23,062 23,771 22,422 -3.0% 2.9% 24,762 -6.9% Below Est 20,848 21,032 19,431 -0.9% 7.3% 20,815 0.2% In-line 507685 WIPRO WPRO IN WIPR.BO IT-Software 4,915 2 1,435,515 621/465 2,087,773 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN Wipro Wipro Ltd. (Wipro) Key Takeaways In-line quarterly guidance range... Wipro’s Q3FY15 $-revenue guidance of 2.1% to 4.0% Q/Q (to $1,808-1,842 mn) in IT services remains in-line with our estimate range (of 2.5-4.0%). We like the consistent uptake in $-revenue guidance (See Chart Below). However, 190 bps (v/s 190 bps in Q2FY14) gap between the guidance range signals no major improvement in revenue visibility on year-over-year basis (See Chart Below). Even though management sounded positive on future deal pipeline and expect significant improvement in guidance number going-ahead on back of strong deal funnel. The key reason of wide range in $-revenue guidance was uncertainty over uptake in discretionary budget. The management expects positive momentum in Healthcare, Retail, Insurance, and High-tech along with revival in application space. In our view, Wipro is on right track and likely to meet industry leading growth over-medium-tolong-term. During the quarter, the company’s net headcount increased by 6,835 employees (v/s 1,399 employees in Q1FY15), led to total employee base of 1,54,287 (v/s 1,47,452 in Q1FY15). IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV. Result Update (contd...) Chart: IT $-Rev Guidance Trend Chart: Wide Range in Guidance Continues Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Interim Results In Rs millions Sales Q/Q Gr % Cost of sales and services As a % of sales Q1 97,346 ‐11.7% 2014 Q2 Q3 1,09,920 1,13,317 12.9% 3.1% Q4 1,17,045 3.3% 2015 Q1 Q2 1,12,456 1,18,161 ‐3.9% 5.1% (64,715) 66.5% (71,591) 65.1% (73,256) 64.6% (74,820) 63.9% (72,107) 64.1% (77,791) 65.8% Selling and marketing expenses As a % of sales (6,860) 7.0% (7,605) 6.9% (7,759) 6.8% (7,025) 6.0% (7,557) 6.7% (7,628) 6.5% General and administration expenses As a % of sales (5,567) 5.7% (5,686) 5.2% (5,775) 5.1% (6,510) 5.6% (6,187) 5.5% (6,605) 5.6% 20,204 20.8% ‐4.2% 25,038 22.8% 23.9% 26,527 23.4% 5.9% 28,690 24.5% 8.2% 26,605 23.7% ‐7.3% 26,137 22.1% ‐1.8% (2,502) 2.6% (2,616) 2.4% (3,109) 2.7% (2,880) 2.5% (2,834) 2.5% (3,075) 2.6% 17,702 18.2% ‐3.7% 22,422 20.4% 26.7% 23,418 20.7% 4.4% 25,810 22.1% 10.2% 23,771 21.1% ‐7.9% 23,062 19.5% ‐3.0% 2,866 2,866 2,866 3,117 3,351 4,120 20,568 25,288 26,284 28,927 27,122 27,182 EBITDA EBITDA margin Q/Q Gr % Depreciation As a % of sales EBIT EBIT Margin Q/Q Gr % Net financials & Other income Earnings before Tax Taxes % of Profits Mi nori ty Interes t Pos t tax excepti onal s Net Income Net Margin Q/Q Gr % EPS - Diluted (4,251) 20.7% (5,754) 22.8% (6,060) 23.1% (6,536) 22.6% (5,942) 21.9% (6,199) 22.8% (84) (103) - (125) - (126) - (148) - (135) - 16,233 16.7% ‐6.1% 19,431 17.7% 19.7% 20,099 17.7% 3.4% 22,265 19.0% 10.8% 21,032 18.7% ‐5.5% 20,848 17.6% ‐0.9% 6.60 7.90 8.17 9.05 8.55 8.47 Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Operating metrics update Attrition in IT services inched-up to 16.5% (v/s 16.1% in Q1FY15 and 15.1% in Q4FY14). Voluntary quarterly attrition trend largely remained flat at 16.9% v/s 17.0% in Q1FY15 and 15.1% in Q4FY14. Despite this, utilization rate (incl trainees) went up 70.0% v/s 68.7% in Q1FY15 and 67.7% in Q4FY14. The management expects further uptick in the utilization rate going-ahead on aback of various available levers. Revenue from fixed price project (FPP) increased to 53.1% v/s 52.1% in Q1FY15 and 51.3% in Q4FY14. The company’s offshore revenue went-up to 46.7% (v/s 45.7% in IndiaNivesh Research Wipro Ltd|Result Update October 27, 2014 | 2 Result Update (contd...) Q1FY15. Wipro’s investment on sales and marketing led to 50 new client wins. After mining successfully to the top account, management is deploying resources to mine the tail accounts. Key Practices/Geography/Verticals Update Key practices, geographies, and verticals performance during the quarter was mixed bag. On sequential basis, Technology Infrastructure Services (+7.8% Q/Q), Analytics (+3.6% Q/Q), Application (+3.2% Q/Q) delivered above company average revenue growth. This was partially offset by de-growth in BPO (down 3.4%) and ADM (down 7.3%) on sequential basis. During the quarter, U.S. demonstrated +4.3% Q/Q growth followed by India (+2.9% Q/Q), and Other Emerging Markets (+6.6% Q/Q), partially offset by 4.4% Q/Q decline in Europe. The growth in Technology (+1.8% Q/Q), Manuf & Health (+1.8% Q/Q) remained positive during the quarter. The acquisition of SAIC started yielding result, delivered 6.9% Q/Q growth in Energy & Utility segment. Retail and Transportation vertical grew by 1.1% Q/Q in Q2FY15. Top & Non-Top accounts Update Wipro’s revenue from top/top5 [contr. 3.5%/12.9% of overall revenue] accounts de-grew by 3.7%/2.0% Q/Q (v/s +3.2%/+2.4% Q/Q for Infosys). However, Top-10 accounts grew by 0.4% Q/Q in Q2FY15. Additionally, its Non-Top10 accounts delivered positive growth of 2.2% Q/Q. Despite, reduction in overlaps and prioritizing investments as per client bucket the growth is not visible in all the key accounts. T o p Clinte s P e rfo rma nce v/ s P e e rs (Qo Q Gro wth % ) Info sys W ip ro T op 5 2.4 -2.0 T op 10 3.2 0.4 Non T op 10 3.2 2.2 H CLT -0.2 -0.7 2.9 Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Outlook Wipro’s management sounded positive on overall revenue outlook and expects FY15 to be the better year than FY14. However, the same optimism has not been reflected in Q3FY15 $- revenue guidance. The management expects revival in discretionary budget, which could lead to in-line average industry performance going-ahead. We maintain our FY15E/FY16E $-revenue growth estimates 9.8%/ 12.6% with realization (INR/USD) assumption of 61/61 for FY15E/FY16E. Valuations At CMP of Rs.581, the stock is trading at P/E multiple of 18.4x FY15E and 16.8x FY16E earnings estimate. Third quarter FY15 $-revenue guidance is in-line with our estimate, but wide range bring bit of uncertainty on overall revenue outlook. Wipro’s re-organization to reduce overlaps, improve deals flow, and deploy automation initiatives delivered marginal improvement on revenue growth and EBITDA expansion front. The uptake in discretionary budget and revival in global economy could lead to outperformance going-ahead. We maintain HOLD with target price of Rs.611 [valuing at 16.5x FY16e] on Wipro. IndiaNivesh Research Wipro Ltd|Result Update October 27, 2014 | 3 Result Update (contd...) Consolidated Financials Income Statement Balance Sheet Y E March (Rs m) Net sales Y/Y Ch % FY12 375,248 20.7 FY13 376,882 0.4 FY14 437,628 16.1 FY15e 490,894 12.2 FY16e 556,458 13.4 COGS SG&A EBITDA Y/Y Ch % EBITDA Margin % 253,044 48,062 74,142 13.2 19.8 250,752 46,245 79,885 7.7 21.2 295,488 52,786 89,354 11.9 20.4 373,239 11,575 106,080 18.7 21.6 419,768 13,505 123,185 16.1 22.1 Interest Deprecaition 1,057 10,129 863 9,913 798 11,106 645 12,254 520 13,963 EBIT 62,956 69,109 77,450 93,181 108,702 16.8 18.3 17.7 19.0 19.5 EBIT Margin % Y E March (Rs m) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Net Worth Minority Long-term loans Others Total Liabilities FY12 4,917 280,397 285,314 849 58958 0 345,121 FY13 4,926 278,886 283,812 1171 63816 0 348,799 FY14 4,932 338,567 343,499 1387 51592 0 396,478 FY15e 4,932 391,530 396,462 1843 41592 0 439,897 FY16e 4,932 450,692 455,624 2360 31592 0 489,575 Gross Block Less Depreciation 184,421 53,267 170,175 63,180 205,388 74,286 222,569 86,539 242,045 100,502 Net Block 131,154 106,995 131,102 136,029 141,543 0 0 0 0 0 6,694 51 6,324 6,324 6,324 Defered tax (net) 0 0 0 0 0 Others 0 0 0 0 0 332,684 364,878 Capital Work in Progress Investments 6,461 9,487 12,631 13,231 11,738 Associate Income PBT 333 69,750 0 78,596 0 90,081 0 106,412 0 120,441 Tax 13,763 16,912 19,818 24,475 28,906 Current Assets 19.7 21.5 22.0 23.0 24.0 Sundry Debtors 55,987 61,684 70,263 81,937 91,535 NM 10.2 13.9 16.6 11.7 Other Income Effective tax rate % Adjusted PAT Y/Y Ch % -257 -337 -386 -456 -516 55,730 61,347 69,877 81,481 91,019 14.9 16.3 16.0 16.6 16.4 5.2 10.1 13.9 16.6 11.7 Minority Reported PAT (RPAT) RPAT Margin % Y/Y Ch % Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research PBT FY13 69,972 FY14 78,248 FY15e 93,826 FY16e 109,222 Depreciation 10,129 9,913 11,106 12,254 13,963 Others 372,430 134,491 426,597 152,454 Cash & Bank Balance 119627 154009 174758 156512 Inventories 10,662 3,263 2,293 2,883 3,244 Others 57,511 66,789 102,435 78,543 89,033 Current Liabilities 23,429 15,434 65,023 24,208 27,442 Provisions Net Current Assets 67,451 207,273 75,497 241,753 40,803 259,052 50,678 297,543 57,447 341,709 Total assets 345,121 348,799 396,478 439,897 489,575 181866 FY16e Y E March FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e EPS (Rs) 22.7 24.9 28.4 33.1 36.9 Cash EPS (Rs) 26.8 29.0 32.9 38.0 42.6 -1,057 -863 -798 -645 -520 -22,721 1,134 73,790 -90,504 -15,090 BVPS 50,364 80,156 162,346 14,931 107,575 -13,763 5,179 -16,912 13,267 -19,818 -57,709 -24,475 46,998 -28,906 8,017 ROCE % ROE % Interest Exp Cash Flow After Chg in WC Tax 85,392 Key Ratios FY12 64,013 Changes in Working Capital 108,623 Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research Cash Flow Y E March (Rs m) 298,153 110,353 DPS (Rs) 7.0 8.2 9.5 11.6 12.9 116.2 18.2 115.4 19.8 139.6 19.5 160.9 21.2 184.9 22.2 ROIC % 19.5 11.2 21.6 11.8 20.3 11.8 20.6 12.0 20.0 12.1 EBITDA Margin % 19.8 21.2 20.4 21.6 22.1 Net Margin % 14.9 16.3 16.0 16.6 16.4 25.8x 23.5x 20.6x 17.7x 15.9x Cash flow from ope. 41,780 76,511 84,819 37,454 86,686 Capital expenditure (net) -28,537 -22,217 -41,486 -17,181 -19,476 Free Cash Flow 13,243 54,294 43,333 20,273 67,210 Other income 0 0 0 0 0 P/BV (x) 5.0x 5.1x 4.2x 3.6x 3.2x Investments 0 0 0 0 0 P/CEPS (x) 21.9x 20.2x 17.8x 15.4x 13.8x -28,537 -22,217 -41,486 -17,181 -19,476 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.8x 16.5x 14.8x 12.4x 10.7x 6,156 4,858 -12,224 -10,000 -10,000 Dividend Yield % 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.2 -17,145 -20,139 -23,273 -28,518 -31,857 m cap/sales (x) 3.8x 3.8x 3.3x 2.9x 2.6x 6950 -4,039 -47737 -63,018 12913 -22,584 0 -38,518 0 -41,857 net debt/equity (x) -0.2x -0.3x -0.4x -0.3x -0.3x net debt/ebitda (x) -0.8x -1.1x -1.4x -1.1x -1.2x 100 Cash flow from invest. Debt (Decrease) Increase Dividend paid (incl tax) Share Issue / Repurchase Cash flow from Financing PER (x) 9,204 -8,724 20,749 -18,246 25,353 Debtors (Days) 95 106 81 100 Cash at the begin. of the yr 110,423 162,733 154,009 174,758 156,512 Creditors (Days) 21 19 34 18 18 Cash at the end of the year 119,627 154,009 174,758 156,512 181,866 Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) 74 87 47 82 82 Net change in cash Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Research Source:Company filings; IndiaNivesh Research Wipro Ltd|Result Update October 27, 2014 | 4 Result Update (contd...) Other Operating Metrics Other Key Metrics Utilization rates (Inc trainees %) Attrition Rate (%) Net Employee Addition (No's) New Customer Added (No's) 3Q2013 74.8 14.2 2336 50 Practices Technology Infrastructure Services Analytics and Information Management Business Application Services BPO Product Engineering & Mobility ADM R&D Business Consulting Verticals (New) Technology, Media &Tele & Health Financial services Manuf & Health Retail & Transport Energy&U Geography US Europe India and ME business Other Emerging Markets Top Customers Top customer Top 5 Top 10 Non Top 10 4Q2013 74.6 13.7 2907 52 1Q2014 73.3 13.2 1469 28 2Q2014 74.3 13.5 -65 45 3Q2014 74.3 14.3 -814 42 4Q2014 76.5 15.1 -349 59 $ Amount As % of Rev Q2FY15 QoQ Change YoY Change 475 204 516 163 124 291 172 35 26.8 11.5 29.1 9.2 7.0 16.4 9.7 2.0 7.8 3.6 3.2 -3.4 1.8 -7.3 3.9 1.8 20.3 68.8 -0.9 16.2 0.0 -12.3 -0.6 -13.1 $ Amount As % of Rev Q2FY15 QoQ Change YoY Change 445 461 322 246 298 25.1 26.0 18.2 13.9 16.8 1.8 -0.9 1.8 1.1 6.9 13.6 7.0 4.0 2.0 15.5 $ Amount As % of Rev Q2FY15 QoQ Change YoY Change 903 492 163 195 51.0 27.8 9.2 11.0 4.3 -4.4 2.9 6.6 11.2 4.5 20.4 -0.4 As % of Rev Q2FY15 3.5 12.9 21.5 78.5 QoQ Change -3.7 -2.0 0.4 2.2 YoY Change 0.0 0.8 2.4 10.6 $ Amount 62 229 381 1,391 1Q2015 77.9 16.1 1399 35 2Q2015 79.4 16.5 6835 50 Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Research Wipro Ltd|Result Update October 27, 2014 | 5 Result Update (contd...) IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e-mail: research@indianivesh.in | Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the stocks mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in Home IndiaNivesh Research Wipro Ltd|Result Update October 27, 2014 | 6 IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.