Weekly Market Monitor    GBCM Research 

Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research October 27, 2014 Index Performance Current Week Previous Week WTD (%) YTD (%) Beta (Yr) Market rebounds on optimism in the regional markets… 6,872.3 2.00% 2.6% 1.000 MSM 30 7,009.7 Financial 8,472.7 8,123.1 4.30% 3.9% 1.353 Industrial 9,536.4 9,642.2 ‐1.10% ‐8.4% 0.876 Services 3,670.5 3,642.6 0.77% 0.0% 0.802 14,000 7,500 12,000 7,400 10,000 7,300 The MSM Index rebounded during the last week on the back of optimism in the regional markets as the oil prices made modest bounce back. The week gone by saw the MSM30 Benchmark close higher by 2.0% at 7,010 points. For the week, financial sector closed higher by 350 points while Industry Index ended in red by 106 points While Services sector ended the week higher by 28 points. In terms of market activity, a total of 123.568 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 40.986 million as against RO 59.462 million during last week. In terms of participation, Foreign and GCC Investors emerged as net buyers for the week to an extent of RO 3.423 million and RO 2.175 million respectively. Omani GCC Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 5.582 million. 8,000 7,200 Economy Watch… 6,000 7,100 4,000 7,000 2,000 6,900 Source: MSM, GBCM Research
MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover In RO 000s
‐
6,800 Turnover
16‐Oct
7,958 19‐Oct
6,540 20‐Oct
5,501 21‐Oct
6,703 22‐Oct
12,995 23‐Oct
9,247 MSM 30
6,872 6,947 6,901 6,913 7,033 7,010 MSM Weekly Trading Activity ‐ Total Turnover RO 40.986 million (c. USD 106.6 million) Buy Sell Net Buy / (Sell) 29,661,954 35,244,473 (5,582,519) GCC 3,495,529 1,320,005 2,175,524 Arabs 1,044,540 1,061,257 (16,716) 6,784,351 3,360,640 3,423,711 Fig. In RO Omanis Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 1 The total value of exports from the Sultanate for H1 2014, including oil and gas, non‐oil products and re‐exports recorded a decline of 9.6% totalling RO 10 billion when compared with RO 11 billion recorded during the corresponding period in 2013. The fall was due to a decline in value of oil and gas exports by 9.7%, declining from RO 7.3 billion exported by end of first half of 2013 to RO 6.6 billion recorded at the end of the first half in 2014. The only increase recorded in exports in 2014 was in the non‐oil exports which grew by 3.3% totaling RO 1.85 billion compared to RO 1.79 billion recorded in 2013, the data said. (Source: ONA) Outlook for the upcoming week… During the last trading week (end 23rd Oct), the GCC markets saw sharper recovery with DFM, Saudi and Qatar leading from the front. We anticipate the local market to open on a positive note for the holiday shortened week with the sharper recovery seen in the regional markets along with improved global cues and relatively stable oil prices. We do also anticipate the overall market participation (both retail and institutions) to improve during the coming sessions. Next strong technical resistance seen at 7,105 points and the support is maintained at 7,000 points. Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research Value Leaders‐Weekly
7,000
6,000
Top Five Gainers/ Losers for the Week
18%
Dhofar Insurance ‐4.76%
16%
Galfar Eng
14%
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
15.6%
‐4.05%
Dhofar Int Inv Hldg ‐4.00%
12%
Al Jaz Steel
13.0%
10%
10.4%
Salalah Mills
8%
8.9%
5.8%
10.07%
4%
Omantel
Al Anwar Hldg Bank Muscat Oman & Emi
Nat Min Water
16.23%
Al Shar Inv
Dhofar Cat Feed
24.84%
0%
0
Al Batinah Power
10.71%
2%
Al Anwar Hldg
8.84%
6%
‐3.81%
‐3.33%
Nawras
MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week Volume Leaders‐ Weekly 20%
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
17.4%
16%
16.2%
14%
0
Telecom, 16.5%
10%
Banking, 35.3%
12%
8%
5,000
Power Utilities, 8.7%
18%
Other Services, 5.9%
6%
Investments, 4.8%
Oil Marketing, 5.3%
Other Industry, 11.7%
4%
5.1%
Oman & Emi Al Anwar Hldg Bank Nizwa
4.9%
3.8%
2%
0%
Bank Muscat
Al Batinah Power
Leasing, 2.7%
Insurance, 1.2%
Engg & Const., 0.8%
Cement, 6.8%
Source: MSM, GBCM Research Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 2 Brokerage, 0.3%
Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research MSM ‐ Value Indicators
GCC‐ Market Performance for the week
Value Indicators Mkt. Cap (In RO’000s) PER P/BV Dividend Yield (%) MSM 30 7,557,624 10.9 1.6 4.2% Financial 3,803,750 10.6 1.3 3.3% Industrial 1,489,070 13.7 2.2 3.9% Services MSM Shariah 40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
‐5.0%
Oman
3,197,836 3,638,940 11.3 2.3 13.1 2.2 5.8% 4.9% Saudi
UAE (Abu Dhabi)
UAE (DFM)
Kuwait
Qatar
Bahrain
WTD (%)
2.00%
6.43%
7.09%
1.29%
0.06%
4.05%
‐0.69%
YTD (%)
2.56%
19.05%
35.71%
12.58%
‐1.79%
29.73%
15.07%
Source: GBCM Research; ** Week ended 23rd Oct 2014 Commodities Performance
for the week Commodities Current Week Previous Week WTD (%) NYMEX WTI Crude 81.0 82.8 ‐2.1% ICE Brent Crude 85.9 86.2 ‐0.3% Crude Oil, Oman 84.3 85.3 ‐1.2% NYMEX Natural Gas 3.6 3.8 ‐4.1% 218.1 223.3 ‐2.3% 1,230.8 1,238.3 ‐0.6% 17.2 17.3 ‐0.6% LME Aluminium (Spot) 1,959.5 1,955.5 0.2% LME Copper (Spot) 6,762.0 6,689.0 1.1% LME Zinc (Spot) 2,258.5 2,247.5 0.5% Hot Rolled Coil ‐ Steel 642.0 642.0 0.0% CBOT Corn 349.5 348.0 0.4% CBOT Wheat 512.8 516.0 ‐0.6% CBOT Soyabean 979.0 951.8 2.9% NYMEX Gasoline Gold Spot Silver Spot Source: Bloomberg; GBCM Research
Page | 3 Oman ‐ Weekly News watch… Board of Sembcorp Salalah has approved the distribution of an interim cash dividend for 2014 of 92 baizas per share (RO 0.092). Interim Dividend cut off date is on 1st November 2014. At the current levels, based on the interim dividends, the dividend yield works out to be 4.1% levels. (Source: MSM). Al Batinah Power approved cash dividend of 6.5% per share (Baizas 6.5 per share) from the audited accounts of 2013. This is higher than the estimates of 4.8 baizas per share given in prospectus. Based on interim dividends, the dividend yield works out to be 3.7% levels. Dividend cut off date is 1st Dec 2014. (Source: MSM) GCC ‐ Weekly News Watch… Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair reported a 7.7% rise in second‐quarter profit as sales increased and it made foreign exchange gains. The company made a net profit of SAR303.74 million ($81.0 million) in the three months to Sept. 30. (Source: Gulf Business) Qatar Islamic Bank reported a 12.8% jump in nine‐month net profit. The Islamic lender made a net profit of QAR1.1 billion during the period up from QAR975.1 million in the same period a year ago.. (Source: Gulf Business)
Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2479 0614‐559 |Institutional Brokerage – Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐560 | | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐534 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐ 533 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. Page | 4