Today’s Highlights – Pavilion REIT (ADD, maintain) Results Note – Unisem (REDUCE, downgrade)

31 October 2014
Today’s Highlights
B ur sa M alaysia
Results Note – Pavilion REIT (ADD, maintain)
- 3Q14 propped up by a one-off reversal
Results Note – Unisem (REDUCE, downgrade)
- Strong quarter…but for how long?
KLCI 52-wk range
1892.65 - 1767.77
M kt Cap (RM bn)
1,762.06
Vol (m shrs)
1,876.31
Value (RM m)
2,152.27
KLCI futures (spot)
1,843.00
KLCI futures (1-mth)
1,844.50
KLC I Ind ex ( 12 - mt h)
Economy – Fiscal Policy
1950
- Oil prices, GST and budget deficit projections
Economy – ASEAN Outlook – Weekly Wrap (24 – 30 Oct 2014)
- Thailand’s MOF downgraded GDP forecast further
1900
1850
1800
Quick bites
1750
Dec-13 Mar-14
Air Asia: AirAsia to raise up to RM1bn via Sukuk
Jun-14
Sep-14
T o p 5 Gainer s
Pr ice ( R M ) chg ( R M )
Outside Malaysia
US stocks gain following better-than-estimated GDP data
12.60
0.58
4.8
PM ETAL
6.85
0.47
7.4
15.62
0.32
2.1
2.41
0.31
14.8
68.00
0.30
0.4
Pr ice ( R M ) chg ( R M )
% chg
PPB
BOXPAK
US economy up an annualized 3.5% in 3Q14
% chg
ALLIANZ
NESTLE
T o p 5 Lo ser s
Fewer Americans filed for jobless benefits in past month
Euro-area slump concerns ease as confidence improves
German unemployment unexpectedly drops most in six months
KLK
22.98
(0.46)
(1.96)
BAT
68.96
(0.26)
(0.38)
SHELL
5.66
(0.13)
(2.25)
OIB
2.42
(0.13)
(5.10)
UM S
2.86
(0.12)
(4.03)
Pr ice ( R M ) chg ( R M )
V al ( R M m)
UK housing loses momentum with price growth at 9-month low
T o p 5 V alue T r ad ed
Japan inflation slowest in six months challenges Kuroda
GAM UDA
5.09
PBBANK
Crude falls on Federal Reserve stimulus halt, US supply
0.10
90.50
18.58
unch
80.15
TM
7.20
0.15
72.17
TENAGA
13.10
(0.02)
70.41
SIM E
9.56
0.06
62.94
Key Eq uit y Ind ices
C lo se
Other Markets Key Indicators
COMMODITIES
CURRENCIES
Latest
CPO (RM/Tonne)
Spot (Nov)
3-mth futures (Feb)
Crude oil (US$/brl)
Spot
1-mth futures
Gold (US$/oz)
Spot
1-mth futures
chg (%)
2,275.0
2,280.0
81.1
80.9
1,198.1
1,198.6
0.7
0.7
(1.3)
(1.3)
(2.1)
(2.1)
RM/US$
RM per 100 Yen
RM/S$
Yen/US$
Eur/US$
Latest
3.29
3.01
2.57
109.32
0.79
Ytd chg (%)
(0.4)
3.5
0.7
(3.7)
9.0
MALAYSIA INTEREST RATES
Latest Ytd chg (bps)
OPR (%)
3.25
25.0
3-mth Klibor (%)
3.76
45.0
Maybank BLR (%)
6.85
25.0
*as at 16 Jul 2014
% chg Y t d chg ( %)
KLCI
1842.8
0.2
Dow Jones
17195.4
1.3
(1.3)
3.7
Nasdaq
4566.1
0.4
9.3
FTSE100
6463.6
0.1
(4.2)
East. Europe
2692.2
0.5
0.9
44599.3
0.8
4.4
(0.0)
27.6
0.8
13.0
M exico
Shenzen B
1349.6
Shanghai B
2391.1
Hong Kong
23702.0
(0.5)
1.7
1958.9
(0.1)
(2.6)
Korea
Singapore
3234.3
0.3
Indonesia
5058.8
(0.3)
2.1
18.4
Philippines
7171.0
1.1
21.8
Thailand
1565.4
0.2
20.5
Vietnam
India
Taiwan
589.1
27346.3
8888.1
(0.3)
16.7
0.9
29.2
(0.2)
3.2
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 1 of 7
31 October 2014
Quick Bites
Air Asia: AirAsia to raise up to RM1bn via Sukuk
AirAsia has proposed to establish the Sukuk Mudharabah Programme
as part of the group’s funding plans to raise up to RM1bn. Proposed
utilisation of proceeds include; i) RM550m to part finance its capex; ii)
RM300m to refinance its banking facility; iii) the balance will be used for
working capital. The programme will be perpetual in tenure, where
AirAsia has a call option to redeem the Sukuk at the first call date, which
is at the end of the fifth, seventh or 10th year. (Source: Bursa Malaysia).
Comment: AirAsia’s main capex includes aircraft delivery and the
building of its headquarter office at the KLIA2 site. The airline is
scheduled to take delivery of 13 aircraft in 2015 and 18 aircraft in 2016
and 2017 respectively. As at end-June 14, its net gearing stood at 1.9x.
We have imputed capex of between RM1.7bn to RM2.4bn for 2014E
and 2015E respectively. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price
of RM2.80 (12x 2015E PER).
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 2 of 7
31 October 2014
Outside Malaysia
US stocks gain following better-than-estimated GDP data
US stocks rallied as faster-than-estimated growth in GDP fuels speculation
the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates. The S&P
rose 0.6% to 1,994.65. The Dow rallied 221.11 points (1.3%) to 17,195.42.
US economy up an annualized 3.5% in 3Q14
The US economy expanded more than forecast in the 3Q14, validating the
optimism that prompted Fed policy makers to stop pumping money into
financial markets. GDP grew at a 3.5% annualized rate in 3Q14 (4.6% gain
in 2Q14), Commerce Department figures showed. The median forecast
surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3% advance in GDP.
Fewer Americans filed for jobless benefits in past month
Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits over the
past month than at any time in more than 14 years, a sign the
strengthening US economy is buoying the labor market. The four-week
average of jobless claims fell to 281,000 in the period ended Oct. 25 from
281,250 the week before, a Labor Department report showed. Bloomberg
survey estimates ranged from weekly claims of 273,000 to 300,000.
Euro-area slump concerns ease as confidence improves
Economic sentiment in the euro-area unexpectedly rose in October in a
sign that the 18-nation region has moved one step away from a renewed
economic downturn. An index of consumer confidence increased to 100.7
in October (99.9 in September), the European Commission said. Median
forecast surveyed by Bloomberg called for a drop to 99.7.
German unemployment unexpectedly drops most in six months
German unemployment unexpectedly declined in October, dropping the
most in six months in a sign of companies’ confidence in the underlying
strength of the economy. The number of people out of work declined a
seasonally adjusted 22,000 to 2.887mn in October, the Federal Labor
Agency said. Median forecast surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an
increase of 4,000. The adjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 6.7%.
UK housing loses momentum with price growth at 9-month low
UK house price growth slowed to a nine-month low October, adding to
evidence that the market for residential property is cooling. Annual price
gains fell to 9% in October from 9.4% in September, Nationwide Building
Society said. Still, prices rose 0.5% on the month after dropping 0.1%.
Mortgage approvals fell to 61,267 while the £1.8bn increase in net lending
was the least since January, Bank of England data showed.
Japan inflation slowest in six months challenges Kuroda
Japan’s inflation slowed to its lowest pace in half a year, underlining the
challenge to central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda’s efforts to reflate the
economy. Consumer prices excluding fresh food increased 3.0% yoy in
September (3.1% in August), the statistics bureau said, in line with a
median projection in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Stripped of
the effect of April’s sales-tax increase, core inflation was 1.0%.
Crude falls on Federal Reserve stimulus halt, US supply
WTI oil fell after the Fed ended its asset-purchase program and US crude
production surged to the highest level since the 1980s. Brent for December
settlement declined US$0.88 (1%) to US$86.24 a barrel.
Source: Bloomberg
(Nur’Shazeya; 03-2145 0541; shazeya.razzaad@affinhwang.com)
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 3 of 7
31 October 2014
Market Summary
Table 1: Off Market transactions
Shares
Price (RM)
Vol (m)
XINGHE
NIHSIN
GRANDFLO
EKOVEST
GLOTEC
BERTAM
GDEX
0.12
0.52
0.30
1.10
0.10
1.00
1.98
24.00
22.00
3.40
3.00
2.00
1.20
1.00
Val (RMm)
Type*
2.76
11.44
1.00
3.30
0.20
1.20
1.98
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
* D-Direct M-Married OM-Odd Married OD-Odd Direct
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2: Shares Buyback/ Resale
Company*
Date
Units
BJCORP
21-Oct-14
2,000,000
Treasury
165,000,000
Transaction
Purchase
Units
61,800
Transaction
ESOS
Lodgement
-
Payment
-
* Only FBM100 Component Stocks
Source : Bursa Malaysia
Table 3: ESOS
Company*
SUNWAY
Date
30-Oct-14
* Only FBM100 Component Stocks
Source : Bursa Malaysia
Table 4: Entitlements
Company
Entitlement
-
Ex-Date
-
Source : Bursa Malaysia
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 4 of 7
31 October 2014
Fig 5: Shareholding changes
Substantial Shareholder
EPF
EPF
Wellington Mgmt Company, LLP
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
EPF
Date
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
23-Oct to 28-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
24-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
24-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
23-Oct-14
24-Oct to 27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
27-Oct-14
Transaction
Disposed
Disposed
Acquired
Disposed
Disposed
Acquired
Acquired
Disposed
Acquired
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Acquired
Disposed
Acquired
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Acquired
Disposed
Acquired
Disposed
Acquired
Disposed
Disposed
Disposed
Units
37,300
390,600
695,900
814,300
500,000
120,000
404,500
48,800
557,500
1185300
555,600
165,000
200,000
900,000
539,600
623,000
2,859,700
443,000
2,200
2,214,000
2,000,000
59,900
2,967,100
406,700
42,700
127,500
1,240,800
1,900
1,513,800
1,700
1,390,900
517,900
48,900
339,600
2,000,000
Company
AEON
AFG
AIRASIA
AMMB
ARMADA
CIMB
CMSB
DAYANG
DIALOG
DIGI
DRBHCOM
E&O
FGV
GAMUDA
HARTA
HLBANK
IHH
IJM
KLK
KPJ
MAXIS
MBM
PBBANK
PERISAI
PETGAS
SIME
SKPETRO
SPSETIA
TM
TM
TOPGLOV
UMW
WCT
YINSON
YTL
Source: Bursa Malaysia
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 5 of 7
31 October 2014
Fig 6: Dividend Entitlement
Stocks
BAT
BREM
CSCENIC
AXREIT
LBALUM
OKA
ZHULIAN
HLCAP
SOLID
LBICAP
SOLID
WEIDA
DIGI
TGUAN
CVIEW
SUPERLN
ATRIUM
EUPE
PERSTIM
PMETAL
PAOS
HAIO
UNISEM
DAIBOCI
HEXZA
DIALOG
GADANG
HARBOUR
ASIAFLE
BONIA
CHEETAH
BJLAND
JTIASA
PJDEV
SUIWAH
PMBTECH
APOLLO
MKLAND
SHH
MALTON
PINTARAS
IMASPRO
SCIENTX
REDTONE
KESM
Particulars
Int. Div. of 78sen
Int. Div of 3sen
Int. Div. of 4sen
Income Distribution of 5sen
1st Int. Div of 2sen
1st and Final Div. of 3sen
Int. Div. of 2sen
Int. Div. of 15sen
Final Div. of 2sen
Int. Div. of 5sen
Final. Div. of 2sen
1st and Final Div. of 3sen
Int. Div of 6.2sen
Int Div. of 3sen
Int. Div of 7sen
Int. Div. of 2sen
Income Distribution of 2.2sen
Int. Div. of 1.5sen
Int. Div. of 15sen
Int. Div. of 6.0sen
Int. Div. of 1.25sen
Final Div. Of 10sen
Int. Div. of 2sen
Int. Div of 2.5sen
Final Div. of 4sen
Final Div. of 1.1sen
1st and Final Div. of 4sen
1st and Final Div. of 2.5sen
Int Div. of 13.5sen
Final Div. of 5sen
1st and Final Div. of 1.25sen
Final Div. of 1sen
Int. Div. of 1.5sen
Int. Div. of 2.5sen
1st and Final Div. of 6sen
Int. Div. of 1sen
1st and Fin. Div. of 25sen
Fin. Div. of 2sen
Int. Div. of 2sen
1st and Final Div. of 3sen
Final Div. of 6sen
1st and Final Div. of 3.5sen
Final Div. of 13sen
Int. Div. of 1.1sen
1st and Final Div. of 3sen
DPS (sen) Announce
Ex-Date
Lodge
Payment
78.00
16-Oct-14
30-Oct-14
3-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
3.00
5-Sep-14
30-Oct-14
3-Nov-14
18-Nov-14
4.00
20-Aug-14
30-Oct-14
3-Nov-14
18-Nov-14
5.00
20-Oct-14
31-Oct-14
4-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
2.00
2-Oct-14
31-Oct-14
4-Nov-14
19-Nov-14
3.00
25-Jul-14
31-Oct-14
4-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
2.00
15-Oct-14
3-Nov-14
5-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
15.00
7-Oct-14
3-Nov-14
5-Nov-14
19-Nov-14
2.00
22-Sep-14
4-Nov-14
6-Nov-14
2-Dec-14
5.00
27-Aug-14
4-Nov-14
6-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
2.00
22-Aug-14
4-Nov-14
6-Nov-14
2-Dec-14
3.00
23-Jul-14
4-Nov-14
6-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
6.00
20-Oct-14
5-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
5-Dec-14
3.00
22-Aug-14
5-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
18-Nov-14
7.00
21-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
10-Nov-14
20-Nov-14
2.00
16-Oct-14
6-Nov-14
10-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
2.00
28-Oct-14
10-Nov-14
12-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
1.50
24-Oct-14
11-Nov-14
13-Nov-14 12-Dec-14
15.00
30-Oct-14
12-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
5-Dec-14
6.00
30-Oct-14
12-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
27-Nov-14
1.25
30-Oct-14
12-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
10.00
12-Sep-14
12-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
26-Nov-14
2.00
30-Oct-14
13-Nov-14
17-Nov-14
3-Dec-14
2.50
21-Oct-14
13-Nov-14
17-Nov-14 11-Dec-14
4.00
28-Oct-14
24-Nov-14
26-Nov-14 10-Dec-14
1.10
28-Oct-14
26-Nov-14
28-Nov-14 18-Dec-14
4.00
28-Oct-14
26-Nov-14
28-Nov-14 23-Dec-14
2.50
16-Oct-14
26-Nov-14
28-Nov-14 19-Dec-14
13.50
4-Sep-14
26-Nov-14
28-Nov-14 26-Dec-14
5.00
28-Oct-14
27-Nov-14
1-Dec-14 22-Dec-14
1.25
23-Oct-14
27-Nov-14
1-Dec-14 12-Dec-14
1.00
2-Oct-14
27-Nov-14
1-Dec-14 18-Dec-14
1.50
30-Oct-14
1-Dec-14
3-Dec-14 17-Dec-14
2.50
30-Oct-14
2-Dec-14
4-Dec-14 18-Dec-14
6.00
23-Oct-14
2-Dec-14
4-Dec-14 18-Dec-14
1.00
30-Oct-14
8-Dec-14 10-Dec-14
7-Jan-15
25.00
28-Aug-14 10-Dec-14 12-Dec-14
1-Sep-15
2.00
14-Oct-14 11-Dec-14 15-Dec-14 31-Dec-14
2.00
29-Oct-14 19-Dec-14 23-Dec-14
12-Jan-14
3.00
28-Oct-14 29-Dec-14 31-Dec-14
30-Jan-15
6.00
25-Sep-14 29-Dec-14 31-Dec-14
15-Jan-15
3.50
24-Oct-14
7-Jan-15
9-Jan-15
19-Jan-15
13.00
24-Sep-14
7-Jan-15
9-Jan-15
6-Feb-15
1.10
30-Oct-14
22-Jan-15
26-Jan-14
24-Feb-15
3.00
29-Oct-14
27-Jan-15
29-Jan-14
17-Feb-14
Source: Bursa Malaysia
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 6 of 7
31 October 2014
Equity Rating Structure and Definitions
BUY
Total return is expected to exceed +15% over a 12-month period
TRADING BUY (TR Total return is expected to exceed +15% over a 3-month period due to short-term positive development, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant a
BUY)
Buy call. This is to cater to investors who are willing to take on higher risks
ADD
Total return is expected to be between 0% to +15% over a 12-month period
REDUCE
Total return is expected to be between 0% to -15% over a 12-month period
TRADING SELL
(TR SELL)
Total return is expected to exceed -15% over a 3-month period due to short-term negative development, but fundamentals are strong enough to avoid a Sell
call. This is to cater to investors who are willing to take on higher risks
SELL
Total return is expected to be below -15% over a 12-month period
NOT RATED
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a
recommendation
OVERWEIGHT
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank
Berhad) (“the Company”) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does
not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or
rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing
view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the
Company’s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its
associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss
of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the
Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any
securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or
take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report.
Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial
status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to
seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment
strategies or transactions discussed in this report.
Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability
for any damages of any kind relating to such data.
The Company’s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company.
The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation.
This report is printed and published by:
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U)
(formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad)
A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd
Chulan Tower Branch,
3rd Floor, Chulan Tower,
No 3, Jalan Conlay,
50450 Kuala Lumpur.
www.affinhwang.com
Email : research@affinhwang.com
Tel : + 603 2143 8668
Fax : + 603 2145 3005
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 7 of 7