GLOBAL INSIGHT W E E K L Y F s

R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T
GLOBAL INSIGHT
W E E K L Y
N OV E M B E R 7 , 2 0 1 4
A C LO S E R LO O K
Fedspeak Served Up Two Ways
Tom Garretson – Minneapolis
The Federal Reserve cooks up the ingredients of its eight meetings per year in two ways—in a postmeeting statement and in detailed minutes two weeks later. Each one has elicited far different market
reactions lately. Which one should investors focus on?
An interesting trend has developed in 2014. The release of the
Fed’s official policy statement has typically sent 5-year Treasury
yields higher, while the subsequent release of the meeting’s
official minutes has sent yields lower (see chart).
Average Percent Change in 5-Year Treasury Yields
for the Six Federal Reserve Meetings Since March
3.0%
Statements
Minutes
Historically, the statement has been one of the Fed’s primary
communication tools and it has shaped how investors
interpreted policy. But we think investors should now give more
weight to meeting minutes given the statement’s limitations, as
well as the complexity the Fed faces as it exits extraordinarily
accommodative policies and shifts to a more flexible and datadependent framework.
Market interprets
hawkish statement
■■
■■
In 2013, the Fed used an explicit unemployment rate goal of
6.5% in its statement to signal when it may start to hike
interest rates. But when the goal was achieved this year, the
Fed dropped it from the statement. We then discovered
Fed Chair Janet Yellen was going to focus on 19 different
measures to assess labor market slack and guide interest rate
policy, which is too complex to communicate in a short postmeeting statement.
The October 2014 post-meeting statement was deemed
“hawkish” by the market as it lacked references to problems
in Europe, the strengthening dollar’s effect on inflation, and
Click here for authors’ contact information.
For Important Disclosures, see page 6.
1.0%
0.0%
Market interprets
dovish minutes
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
Focus on the Details
Here’s why:
2.0%
10:00 AM11:00 AM12:00 PM 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5:00 PM
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; based from a release time of 2 PM EST
M A R K ET P U L S E
3
Four U.S. indexes achieve a rare feat
3
Keystone XL receives a Republican boost
3
Why Europe will likely miss its inflation target
4
Growth in China’s shadow banking system pulls back
weak global growth in general. But, in our view, it’s almost
certain these issues were discussed by the Fed in detail at
the meeting. It has been these types of details that have
been included in the minutes and have driven yields lower
upon their release, as the market realized the Fed is taking
into account a wider range of data than is revealed in the
formal statement.
Additionally, market-based sources can provide valuable
signals about where the Fed may be headed. For example,
the latest primary dealer survey conducted by the New York
Federal Reserve showed that the 22 dealers, on average,
estimated a 20% chance the Fed Funds rate would return to
zero percent within two years of the first rate hike. This is sure
to give the Fed pause as it seeks to avoid hiking rates too soon,
and partly explains why the market continues to price in a
lower path of interest rates than the Fed’s own projections, as it
is pricing in this possibility (see chart).
Market Continues to Forecast a Fed Funds Rate
Below Federal Reserve’s Projections
4.00%
3.75%
Federal Reserve Median
3.50%
Futures Data
2.88%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
2.15%
1.38%
1.50%
1.54%
1.00%
0.50%
0.66%
0.00%
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg
As the statement says, if the data are better the Fed will raise
rates sooner, if the data are worse it will wait. The Fed is
assessing a wider pool of data that can’t be communicated via
the post-meeting statement, so we believe the minutes now
contain our best cues for the path forward.
W H AT ’ S M O V I N G M A R K ET S
5.7%
4.5% 4.4%
Japan
Canada
1.4% 1.2%
1.0%
Germany
Italy
2.0% 1.8%
1.7%
France
U.K.
2.5%
China
Our strategists believe “security considerations will likely be
front and center” as Saudi Arabia’s leadership determines
its oil policy in coming weeks and months. They wrote,
“…we maintain that the King would not sacrifice domestic
and regional stability in order to punish Iran and Russia or
bankrupt U.S. shale producers.”
8.0%
U.S.
RBC Capital Markets strategists believe Saudi Arabia’s leverage
on oil prices is limited. If oil remains near current levels, the
Kingdom would be forced into deficit spending. Also, ISIS
is fighting in its backyard. Terrorism threats are among the
reasons Saudi Arabia’s defense budget is so high (see chart).
Military Expenditures as % of GDP - Select Nations
Russia
WTI crude slid below $80/bbl and Brent dropped beneath $85/
bbl after Saudi Arabia slashed its oil price for the U.S. market to
undercut U.S. shale producers and gain market share.
Saudi Arabia’s High Defense Budget
May Limit Its Ability to Pressure Oil Prices
Israel
The decline in commodity prices continued unabated during
the week with gold falling to its lowest level since April 2010,
and crude oil retreating deeper into bear market territory.
Saudi Arabia
Crude Realities for Saudi Arabia
Source - RBC Wealth Management, CIA World Factbook; 2012 data
While other factors may continue to weigh on crude oil prices
(high U.S. supplies, low global demand), pressure from Saudi
Arabia likely has its limits.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
November 7, 2014
2
U N I T E D S T AT E S
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
■■
U.S. equities gained additional ground following the
Republican Party’s midterm election landslide. The rally
was broad. For the first time since March 2008, four key
indexes each recorded all-time highs during the same
trading session: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average,
Transportation Average, and Utilities Average. It’s rare
to see Transports and Utilities moving together. But it
makes sense to us given the unique contours of this cycle.
Transports are rising because the economy is firming, and
utilities are up because interest rates will likely remain
relatively low for some time even if the Fed begins to hike
rates in 2015.
The Canadian Dollar Has Retreated 6% Since the Summer
and 17% Since the 2011 High
CAD/USD Exchange Rate
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
2011
With 88% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings,
Q3 EPS growth is pacing at 9.8% y/y, according to Thomson
Reuters I/B/E/S. Share buybacks represent about 2.2% of
the total, and banks’ legal expenses account for roughly
0.7%, RBC Capital Markets calculates. So a purer growth
number is closer to 6.9%—pretty good, in our view,
considering Europe’s weak economy has constrained
earnings of U.S.-based multinational companies.
■■
■■
Forward earnings estimates were cut during the reporting
season, as has been the pattern for some time. Consensus
growth estimates now seem more reasonable at 7.6% y/y
for Q4 and 10.3% y/y for full-year 2015. The consensus 2015
S&P 500 EPS forecast stands at $130.14, down from $133.91
at the beginning of the year. RBC Capital Markets’ estimate
has been at $130 all year.
The federal government announced the details of separate
voluntary agreements by Visa and MasterCard to lower
credit card fees. The proposals stipulate a credit card fee
reduction to an average effective rate of 1.50% for the next
five years; a reduction of approximately 10%. The agreement
will have important implications for Aimia’s Aeroplan
loyalty program, but to what extent is unclear at this point.
■■
■■
U.S. nonfarm payroll growth was light in October (214,000
vs. 235,000 consensus), but a 31,000 upward revision
for the previous two months more than made up for it.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9%, and the
participation rate moved up a smidge.
Canadian bond yields moved slightly lower. Despite a fairly
strong jobs report, dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet
Yellen sent yields down on Friday.
■■
The Canadian preferred share market once again reached
a year-to-date high following the September sell-off. The
higher-quality part of the market is carrying this rally as we
continue to see underperformance in low-reset spread and
lower-quality issues. We continue to monitor these lowerreset issues for entry points and believe patience will be
rewarded.
■■
The Canadian dollar continues to trend downward and is at
new short-term lows. The loonie has sold off over 6% since
its summer high (see chart).
■■
■■
The prospects of TransCanada’s Keystone XL Pipeline
being approved received a boost in the wake of U.S.
midterm elections. Pro-Keystone Republicans now control
the Senate in addition to the House of Representatives.
However, hurdles remain including a potential Obama veto,
a Nebraska court case, and escalating costs.
■■
SNC-Lavalin surprised the market when it announced a
global restructuring including 4,000 layoffs. The company
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
2014
reduced full-year guidance to reflect restructuring charges,
continued weakness in commodities, and challenges with
certain legacy projects.
Patrick McAllister & Alana Awad – Toronto
The S&P/TSX Composite moved slightly higher as the
financials and energy sectors were largely unchanged.
2013
Source - RBC Dominion Securities Inc., Bloomberg; data through 11/6/14
CANADA
■■
2012
EUROPE
Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London
■■
The corporate earnings season was in full swing during
the week. Mediocre earnings led to further estimate
downgrades. The mood in equities markets was subdued.
November 7, 2014
3
■■
■■
■■
■■
The European Central Bank (ECB) left all of its policy tools
unchanged at its monthly meeting, as widely expected. The
ECB believes the macroeconomic situation didn’t warrant
a change to its monetary stance. The issue of declining
inflation was largely avoided, as the ECB will monitor
the impact of monetary policy, the weaker exchange rate,
geopolitical risk, and lower energy prices.
Uranium Has Rebounded, but Iron Ore Remains Weak
Uranium NYMEX Futures and Iron Ore Delivered to Qingdao, China
60
Iron Ore
130
40
110
20
2012
■■
Asian equities traded marginally lower over the week.
Exceptions included Japan’s TOPIX, which reached a new
high for the cycle, and the Shanghai Composite, which
touched a high for the year. The dollar reached its highest
level against the yen, at over USDJPY 115, since 2007 and
has appreciated by 6.7% against the yen in the last two
weeks alone. The Australian dollar also reached a new low
for the year against the dollar.
China’s services industries remain in reasonably good
shape, according to October’s official Services PMI. While
the 53.8 reading was modestly below September’s 54, and
marked a nine-month low, services remain stronger than
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
(left axis)
2013
90
70
2014
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 11/6/14
manufacturing. The October Manufacturing PMI was an
underwhelming 50.8 (September: 51.1). The index has been
in a fairly narrow band since the start of 2012, spending
only two months below the important level of 50, but never
rising significantly higher during the period. By contrast,
the Services PMI has been reasonably strong. Even during
the global financial crisis, this leading indicator remained
above 50. In recent years, services industries have formed
an increasingly large and key part of China’s economy.
■■
Growth in China’s so-called shadow banking assets
continues to moderate under increased regulatory scrutiny.
Trust assets, an important component, registered the lowest
growth in four years in Q3. The China Trustee Association
stated there was RMB 12.9T ($2.1T) in trust assets at the end
of September, +3.8% q/q. It also said there were 397 “risky”
trust products with a value of RMB 82.4B ($13.5B), -10% q/q.
■■
Uranium prices received a boost as a nuclear power plant
in southern Japan was given the go-ahead to restart,
the first such event since the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
Almost all of Japan’s 48 reactors have been offline since.
Conversely, the price of iron ore fell to its lowest level in five
years. China has ordered some steel mills to reduce output
to curb pollution.
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
■■
Uranium
30
Importantly, ECB President Mario Draghi highlighted the
unanimous commitment of the Governing Council to
extraordinary measures.
A S I A PA C I F I C
150
(right axis)
50
RBC Global Asset Management economists expect a low
inflation environment, with the impact of lower oil prices
(-0.3%) being largely offset by the impact of the weaker euro
(0.2%) and lower yields (0.1%). Overall, they expect inflation
of 0.8% this year, less than the ECB’s 1.1% projection. Very
low inflation is a danger in a stagnating economy with
high level of indebtedness. As inflation falls, real interest
rates rise at a time incomes stall, causing the debt burden to
increase.
The ECB gave more clarity about the balance sheet size it
seeks to achieve. It aims for early 2012 levels (some €3T).
To expand to this extent, its purchases will likely include a
wide range of private sector assets, starting with corporate
bonds, in RBC Capital Markets economists’ view. Early 2012
is relevant, as it was a time of distress while the sovereign
debt crisis swept the region.
170
November 7, 2014
4
M A R K ET S CO R E C A R D
Data as of November 7, 2014
Equities (local currency)
S&P 500
Level
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
Govt Bonds (bps chg)
Yield
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
2,031.92
0.7%
0.7%
9.9%
16.3%
U.S. 2-Yr Tsy
0.499%
0.7
0.7
11.9
21.7
17,573.93
1.1%
1.1%
6.0%
12.7%
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy
2.301%
-3.4
-3.4
-72.7
-29.9
NASDAQ
4,632.53
0.0%
0.0%
10.9%
20.1%
Canada 2-Yr
1.021%
-0.2
-0.2
-11.6
-7.7
Russell 2000
1,173.32
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
8.7%
Canada 10-Yr
2.030%
-1.8
-1.8
-72.8
-48.9
S&P/TSX Comp
14,690.83
0.5%
0.5%
7.8%
10.5%
U.K. 2-Yr
0.637%
-1.8
-1.8
7.3
24.4
FTSE All Share
3,510.98
0.2%
0.2%
-2.7%
-1.6%
U.K. 10-Yr
2.202%
-4.5
-4.5
-82.0
-46.6
Dow Industrials (DJIA)
STOXX Europe 600
335.25
-0.5%
-0.5%
2.1%
3.7%
Germany 2-Yr
-0.060%
-0.4
-0.4
-27.3
-14.6
9,291.83
-0.4%
-0.4%
-2.7%
2.3%
Germany 10-Yr
0.817%
-2.4
-2.4
-111.2
-86.7
23,550.24
-1.9%
-1.9%
1.0%
2.9%
2,418.17
-0.1%
-0.1%
14.3%
13.6%
Nikkei 225
16,880.38
2.8%
2.8%
3.6%
18.6%
India Sensex
27,868.63
0.0%
0.0%
31.6%
33.8%
3,286.39
0.4%
0.4%
3.8%
2.6%
Brazil Ibovespa
53,222.85
-2.6%
-2.6%
3.3%
0.9%
Mexican Bolsa IPC
44,614.66
-0.9%
-0.9%
-13.4%
11.5%
Commodities (USD)
Price
YTD
12 Mos
German DAX
Hang Seng
Shanghai Comp
Singapore Straits Times
Gold (spot $/oz)
MTD
U.S. Dollar Index
Rate
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
87.54
0.7%
0.7%
9.4%
8.3%
CAD/USD
0.88
-0.6%
-0.6%
-6.3%
-7.7%
USD/CAD
1.13
0.6%
0.6%
6.7%
8.3%
EUR/USD
1.25
-0.5%
-0.5%
-9.3%
-7.1%
GBP/USD
1.59
-0.8%
-0.8%
-4.1%
-1.4%
AUD/USD
0.86
-1.9%
-1.9%
-3.2%
-8.7%
USD/CHF
0.97
0.3%
0.3%
8.2%
5.5%
1,177.47
0.3%
0.3%
-2.3%
-10.0%
USD/JPY
114.56
2.0%
2.0%
8.8%
16.8%
15.77
-2.4%
-2.4%
-19.0%
-27.2%
EUR/JPY
142.75
1.5%
1.5%
-1.4%
8.4%
Silver (spot $/oz)
Copper ($/ton)
1 Week
Currencies
6,737.00
-0.4%
-0.4%
-8.7%
-5.8%
EUR/GBP
0.79
0.3%
0.3%
-5.4%
-5.8%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl)
78.65
-2.3%
-2.3%
-20.1%
-16.5%
EUR/CHF
1.20
-0.2%
-0.2%
-1.9%
-2.1%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl)
83.12
-3.2%
-3.2%
-25.0%
-19.7%
USD/SGD
1.29
0.2%
0.2%
2.0%
3.5%
4.38
13.1%
13.1%
3.5%
24.4%
USD/CNY
6.12
0.2%
0.2%
1.1%
0.5%
311.96
-2.1%
-2.1%
-11.3%
-13.2%
USD/BRL
2.56
3.3%
3.3%
8.3%
11.0%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)
Agriculture Index
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close.
Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each
pairing. Data as of 9:41 pm GMT 11/7/14.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.88 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.88 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -7.7% return means the Canadian dollar fell 7.7% vs. the U.S.
dollar year to date. USD/JPY 114.56 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 114.56 yen. USD/JPY 16.8% return means the U.S. dollar rose 16.8% vs. the yen year to date.
U P CO M I N G EV E N TS
SUN, NOV 9
WED, NOV 12
THU, NOV 13
FRI, NOV 14
China New Yuan Loans (620B)
Japan Industrial Prod.
China Fixed Assets Ex Rural
Eurozone CPI (0.4% y/y)
China Money Supply (M2 12.9% y/y)
Eurozone Industrial Prod. (-0.3% y/y)
China Retail Sales (11.6% y/y)
Eurozone Q3 GDP (0.1% q/q, 0.6% y/y)
MON, NOV 10
U.K. Unemployment (5.9%)
China Industrial Prod. (8% y/y)
Germany Q3 GDP (0.1% q/q, 1.1% y/y)
Japan Trade Balance (-¥761.6B)
U.K. Employment Change (162K)
China FDI (1.1% y/y)
U.S. Retail Sales (0.3% m/m)
Canada Housing Starts
BoE Inflation Report
Canada New Housing Prices
U.S. Retail Control Group (0.4% m/m)
Canada Manufacturing Sales
All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
November 7, 2014
5
AUTHORS
Tom Garretson – Minneapolis, United States
tom.garretson@rbc.com; RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC
ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U)
most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings
are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as
described below).
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States
kelly.bogdanov@rbc.com; RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada
patrick.mcallister@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Alana Awad – Toronto, Canada
alana.awad@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
frederique.carrier@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom
davide.boglietti@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Jay Roberts –Hong Kong, China
jay.roberts@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
D I S C LO S U R E S A N D D I S C L A I M E R
Analyst Certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the
responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by
the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management is comprised of RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes, without limitation, RBC Dominion
Securities Inc., which is a foreign affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. This report
has been prepared by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Alana Awad, Patrick McAllister,
and Jay Roberts, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC
Dominion Securities Inc.; and Davide Boglietti and Frédérique Carrier, employees of
RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment
Management (UK) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication.
These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with
the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and, since they are not
associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to NASD
Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 governing communications with subject
companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in
accounts held by research analysts.
In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more companies), RBC
Wealth Management may choose to provide important disclosure information
by reference. To access current disclosures, clients should refer to http://www.
rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?EntityID=2 to view
disclosures regarding RBC Wealth Management and its affiliated firms. Such
information is also available upon request to RBC Wealth Management Publishing,
60 South Sixth St, Minneapolis, MN 55402.
References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may
include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by RBC
Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended
lists include a former list called the Prime Opportunity List (RL 3), the Guided
Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), the Guided
Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio: Midcap 111 (RL9), the
Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided Portfolio: Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11).
RBC Capital Markets recommended lists include the Strategy Focus List and the
Fundamental Equity Weightings (FEW) portfolios. The abbreviation ‘RL On’ means
the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’
means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List.
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms
to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell -
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Rating
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
As of September 30, 2014
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform]
Hold [Sector Perform]
Sell [Underperform]
858
683
98
52.35
41.67
5.98
308
151
8
35.90
22.11
8.16
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System
An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides
research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents
solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months
relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of
Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely
correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the
same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below).
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide
significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over
12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over
12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over
12 months.
Risk Rating:
As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above
Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a security’s lower level of
financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes, high balance
sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of
financial and/or stock price volatility.
Valuation and Price Target Impediments
When RBC Wealth Management assigns a value to a company in a research report,
FINRA Rules and NYSE Rules (as incorporated into the FINRA Rulebook) require
that the basis for the valuation and the impediments to obtaining that valuation
be described. Where applicable, this information is included in the text of our
research in the sections entitled “Valuation” and “Price Target Impediment”,
respectively.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received
compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of
RBC Capital Markets, LLC, and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been
generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC
Capital Markets, LLC and its affiliates.
Other Disclosures
Prepared with the assistance of our national research sources. RBC Wealth
Management prepared this report and takes sole responsibility for its content
and distribution. The content may have been based, at least in part, on material
provided by our third-party correspondent research services. Our third-party
correspondent has given RBC Wealth Management general permission to use its
research reports as source materials, but has not reviewed or approved this report,
nor has it been informed of its publication. Our third-party correspondent may
from time to time have long or short positions in, effect transactions in, and make
markets in securities referred to herein. Our third-party correspondent may from
time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment
banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report.
November 7, 2014
6
RBC Wealth Management endeavors to make all reasonable efforts to provide
research simultaneously to all eligible clients, having regard to local time zones
in overseas jurisdictions. In certain investment advisory accounts, RBC Wealth
Management will act as overlay manager for our clients and will initiate transactions
in the securities referenced herein for those accounts upon receipt of this report.
These transactions may occur before or after your receipt of this report and may
have a short-term impact on the market price of the securities in which transactions
occur. RBC Wealth Management research is posted to our proprietary Web sites to
ensure eligible clients receive coverage initiations and changes in rating, targets,
and opinions in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by sales
personnel via e-mail, fax, or regular mail. Clients may also receive our research via
third-party vendors. Please contact your RBC Wealth Management Financial Advisor
for more information regarding RBC Wealth Management research.
Conflicts Disclosure: RBC Wealth Management is registered with the Securities and
Exchange Commission as a broker/dealer and an investment adviser, offering both
brokerage and investment advisory services. RBC Wealth Management’s Policy for
Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us
on our Web site at http://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.
aspx?EntityID=2. Conflicts of interests related to our investment advisory business can
be found in Part II of the Firm’s Form ADV or the Investment Advisor Group Disclosure
Document. Copies of any of these documents are available upon request through your
Financial Advisor. We reserve the right to amend or supplement this policy, Part II of
the ADV, or Disclosure Document at any time.
The authors are employed by one of the following entities: RBC Wealth Management
USA, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, a securities broker-dealer with principal
offices located in Minnesota and New York, USA; by RBC Dominion Securities Inc.,
a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Toronto, Canada; by RBC
Investment Services (Asia) Limited, a subsidiary of RBC Dominion Securities Inc.,
a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Hong Kong, China; and
by Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited, an investment
management company with principal offices located in London, United Kingdom.
Research Resources
This document is produced by the Global Portfolio Advisory Committee within RBC
Wealth Management’s Portfolio Advisory Group. The RBC WM Portfolio Advisory
Group provides support related to asset allocation and portfolio construction for
the firm’s Investment Advisors / Financial Advisors who are engaged in assembling
portfolios incorporating individual marketable securities. The Committee leverages
the broad market outlook as developed by the RBC Investment Strategy Committee,
providing additional tactical and thematic support utilizing research from the RBC
Investment Strategy Committee, RBC Capital Markets, and third-party resources.
The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is
the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard
& Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. Neither
MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any
GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations
with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by
the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of
originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular
purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting
any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third
party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have
any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other
damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Wealth
Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, from sources believed to be
reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal
Bank of Canada, RBC Wealth Management, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this
report constitute RBC Wealth Management’s judgment as of the date of this report,
are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without
legal responsibility. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future
returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Every province
in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their
own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the
securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions.
This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation
to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company
that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer
in that jurisdiction. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice
or individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for general
circulation to clients, including clients who are affiliates of Royal Bank of Canada,
and does not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific
person who may read it. The investments or services contained in this report may
not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent
investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or
services. To the full extent permitted by law neither Royal Bank of Canada nor any of
its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained
herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any
means without the prior consent of Royal Bank of Canada. Additional information is
available upon request.
To U.S. Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Capital Markets,
LLC, Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, which is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and which
accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. RBC
Capital Markets, LLC, is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of
Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada. Any U.S. recipient
of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in a broker
or dealer capacity and that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any
transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report, should contact and
place orders with RBC Capital Markets, LLC. International investing involves risks
not typically associated with U.S. investing, including currency fluctuation, foreign
taxation, political instability and different accounting standards.
To Canadian Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Dominion
Securities Inc. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate
corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund.
®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license. RBC Wealth
Management is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license.
To European Residents: Clients of United Kingdom subsidiaries may be entitled
to compensation from the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme if any of
these entities cannot meet its obligations. This depends on the type of business
and the circumstances of the claim. Most types of investment business are covered
for up to a total of £50,000. The Channel Islands subsidiaries are not covered by
the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme; the offices of Royal Bank of Canada
(Channel Islands) Limited in Guernsey and Jersey are covered by the respective
compensation schemes in these jurisdictions for deposit taking business only.
To Hong Kong Residents: This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by RBC
Investment Services (Asia) Limited and RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited,
licensed corporations under the Securities and Futures Ordinance or, by Royal Bank
of Canada, Hong Kong Branch, a registered institution under the Securities and
Futures Ordinance. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does
not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient.
Hong Kong persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities
mentioned in this publication should contact RBC Investment Services (Asia)
Limited, RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited or Royal Bank of Canada, Hong
Kong Branch at 17/Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong
(telephone number is 2848-1388).
To Singapore Residents: This publication is distributed in Singapore by RBC
(Singapore Branch) and RBC (Asia) Limited, registered entities granted offshore
bank status by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material has been
prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives,
financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek independent
advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do not obtain
independent advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Copyright © RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2014 - Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2014 - Member CIPF
Copyright © RBC Europe Limited 2014
Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2014
All rights reserved
November 7, 2014
7