Golden Research Thoughts International Multidisciplinary Research Journal

ISSN No :2231-5063
Vol 4 Issue 5 Nov 2014
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
International Multidisciplinary
Research Journal
Golden Research
Thoughts
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Welcome to GRT
RNI MAHMUL/2011/38595
ISSN No.2231-5063
Golden Research Thoughts Journal is a multidisciplinary research journal, published monthly in English,
Hindi & Marathi Language. All research papers submitted to the journal will be double - blind peer reviewed
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GRT
UNDERSTANDING THE MIDDLE-EAST IN THE
POST - ARAB SPRING PHASE: A GEOPOLITICAL
PERSPECTIVE
Dipesh Karmarkar
Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Smt. CHM College .
Abstract:-Certain world regions become a geopolitical unit due to their absolute
and relative location, availability of strategic resources, closeness to trade routes,
etc. The Middle-East is the best example, which has been an extremely important
geopolitical unit since historical times. Since the silk route days, it has played a vital
role of linking Asia with Europe and Africa. A glance at the world map would show
the Middle-East as a territorial knot of the three continents. It is not just its absolute
location that makes it a significant geopolitical unit but its location vis-à-vis its
neighbouring political-economic environment. The Middle-Eastern countries
either get influenced or influence developed countries of the European Union
located to its northwest and developing countries located to its east and southwest.
Further, availability of strategic resources like oil and petroleum and technoeconomic capacity to exploit them allows these countries to manoeuvre the
economic or political crisis. Most of the countries depend on the Middle-East for
their energy demands and, therefore, oil prices make their national economics
highly volatile. Suez Canal that connects the Mediterranean with the Red Sea route,
is the major artery of the oil trade; adding into the geostrategic importance of the
region. Consequently, control over oil reserves and Suez Canal is of prime
geopolitical significance. How far the political regimes achieve success in
exploiting the given geostrategic location to their advantages determine the
geopolitical balance of the region. At this backdrop, the present paper attempts to
understand the geopolitics in the Middle-East in the post-Arab Spring phase.
Keywords: Arab Spring, Geopolitics, Tri-polarity .
INTRODUCTION
I. Geopolitical Significance of the Middle-East and the Arab Spring
Certain world regions become a geopolitical unit due to their absolute and relative location,
availability of strategic resources, closeness to trade routes, etc. The Middle-East is the best example,
which has been an extremely important geopolitical unit since historical times. Since the silk route
days, it has played a vital role of linking Asia with Europe and Africa. A glance at the world map
would show the Middle-East as a territorial knot of the three continents. It is not just its absolute
location that makes it a significant geopolitical unit but its location vis-à-vis its neighbouring
political-economic environment. The Middle-Eastern countries either get influenced or influence
developed countries of the European Union located to its northwest and developing countries located
Dipesh Karmarkar , “UNDERSTANDING THE MIDDLE-EAST IN THE POST - ARAB SPRING PHASE: A
GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVE”, Golden Research Thoughts | Volume 4 | Issue 5 | Nov 2014 | Online & Print
1
.Understanding The Middle- East In The Post - Arab Spring Phase: A Geopolitical Perspective
to its east and southwest. Further, availability of strategic resources like oil and petroleum and
techno-economic capacity to exploit them allows these countries to manoeuvre the economic or
political crisis. Most of the countries depend on the Middle-East for their energy demands and,
therefore, oil prices make their national economics highly volatile. Suez Canal that connects the
Mediterranean with the Red Sea route, is the major artery of the oil trade; adding into the geostrategic
importance of the region. Consequently, control over oil reserves and Suez Canal is of prime
geopolitical significance. How far the political regimes achieve success in exploiting the given
geostrategic location to their advantages determine the geopolitical balance of the region. At this
backdrop, the present seminar-paper presentation attempts to understand the geopolitics in the
Middle-East in the post-Arab Spring phase.
The “Arab Spring” is a western title coined by Marc Lynch, in his article published in
December, 2011 issue of an American political journal, Foreign Policy. Arab Spring is a latest
phenomenon that denotes the revolutionary waves of popular demonstrations and protests, violent
and non-violent, against the governments of the Arab countries. So these are the revolts led by the
people. Arab Spring can be interpreted as a phase of political rebirth or awakening in terms of mass
participation of people. The genesis of Arab Spring lies in the degrading economic and social
conditions that are produced mainly due to utter negligence by the governing monarchs. The
immediate cause of the Arab Spring was the self-immolation by Mohammad Bouazizi, a fruitvendor, in Tunisia in December 2001. He did it for the cause of corruption and police atrocities. The
revolt that Bouazizi started, then, inspired a wave of revolutions in a number of Middle-Eastern and
North African countries like Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Bahrain Syria as well as in Algeria, Iraq,
Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco and Sudan.
II. Muslim Brotherhood and the Gulf Cooperation Council
Perthes (2013) argues that the competition over dominance in the Gulf is enmeshed with
competition between different models of political Islam – the Sahali–Wahabi model followed in the
Gulf Monarchies like Saudi Arabia , the more modern approach of the Muslim Brotherhood that is
more dominating in North African countries like Egypt, the Islamic-Democratic model of Turkey’s
AKP and the Iranian example of an Islamic Republic. The understanding of the Arab Spring and its
geopolitical implications requires a basic understanding of two organisations that has played an
extremely important role on the religious and economic life of the region – the Muslim Brotherhood
(MB) ruling in the North Africa and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of the Gulf monarchies
following conservative Wahabism. Both these organisations share strict religious approaches to
public and private life, a well-organized and fixed internal hierarchy, and even the same feared long
beards (Dacrema, 2013). Though superficially looks similar these organisations follow different
perceptions of Islam and development.
Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by the Egyptian cleric Mohammed al-Banna.
Later, its branches blossomed in several Arab countries such as Jordan, Palestine, Tunisia, Libya,
Syria and the other Gulf countries. The organisation believes in the moderate political Islam. Its
activities, based on bottom-up approach to development, are more among the lower strata of the
society. Gulf Cooperation Council, on the other hand, is comprised of the hydrocarbon monarchies
of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar with a strong support of US and Europe.
GCC believed in stricter form of religious Islam, known as Wahabism. The organisation is made up
of religious leadership and ruling elites and believed in top-bottom approach to development. Both
these organisations have been the major contenders of the Islamic and regional leadership of the
Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) region. The slow but steady spread of the Muslim
Brotherhood, by 1990s, in the Gulf countries has been perceived by the ruling Wahabi elites of the
GCC as a threat than as a useful ideological tool (Dacrema, 2013). It resulted into an antiBrotherhood campaign in the Gulf countries. Ruling monarchical governments of some countries
like Egypt declared the Muslim Brotherhood as the terrorist organisation.
The pattern of the spread of the Arab Spring shows that though the uprisings have taken
place in all the MENA countries, the change of regime (as a result of the revolution) came chiefly in
Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. In all these countries, the long-ruling monarchies have been thrown away
Golden Research Thoughts | Volume 4 | Issue 5 | Nov 2014
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.Understanding The Middle- East In The Post - Arab Spring Phase: A Geopolitical Perspective
and the new governments of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political parties have come to power, for e.g.
Ennahda in Tunisia, Freedom & Justice Party in Egypt and Justice and Development Party in
Morocco. This political transition reflects the rise of the so-called moderate political Islam, which in
most cases is represented by political parties directly or indirectly linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.
It has opened a rift between the Wahabi-dominated Gulf monarchies and the International Muslim
Brotherhood. Encouraged by the political successes in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco, since 2011
many other Brotherhood branches have started to intensify their activities, often sparking the
concerns of the Gulf Monarchies (Dacrema, 2013). The Geopolitics of the post-Arab Spring MiddleEast needs to be understood within this broader framework.
III. Emerging Geopolitical Equations in the Middle-East in the Post-Arab Spring Period
At the background of the above-discussed framework, two questions become very crucial –
leadership in the Islamic World and defining spheres of influence (Posch, 2012). Thus the countries
in the Middle-East are now contesting for gaining the supremacy over political-economic space in
the region. They have to do it by carving out their own sphere of influence. Similarly, there is also a
competition for claiming the religious leadership of the Islamic Middle-East. The entire struggle has
led to major shifts and re-alignments in the intra-regional relations.
The post-Arab Spring world has given rise to following geopolitical patterns:
1)Rise of a tri-polar Middle-East
2)Rising and Falling Actors of the region
3)Pulling-in of the remote but interested regions
1. Rise of a Tri-Polar Middle-East:
It is observed that the Arab-Spring has given rise to the three dominant regional poles,
around which the entire power crisis would revolve in near future. These are Saudi Arabia, Egypt and
Iran. All these three countries represent three different Islamic models respectively – Wahabism
Islam, Political Islam and Islamic Republic. These three poles have perceived the Spring differently.
Saudi Arabia perceives it as a huge threat to its regional supremacy. The major threat comes from the
Muslim Brotherhood parties, esp. in the Egypt. Egypt, on the other hand, looks at the Arab Spring as
an opportunity to create supreme regional identity by surpassing Saudi Arabia. Iran takes the Spring
as an important phase of the Islamic Awakening. Further, these completely three different
perceptions guide the political equations of the region.
1)Saudi Arabia: The Arab Spring has threatened the leadership of Saudi Arabia as a GCC country. It
is now trying to reclaim and consolidate its position by stabilizing the Arab Monarchies.
Interestingly, Saudi Arabia’s relations with Iran on one hand and with Egypt on the other continue to
be strained. Saudi provided its full support to the Syrian rebels, who were engaged in throwing away
the Syrian regime. It was a move to challenge Iran as Syria’s Asad regime has a cordial relation with
Iran. There are media reports that Saudi Arabia has also played a crucial role in the military coup that
threw away the elected MB government (led by Morsi) of Egypt. It has also supported the arrests of
several Egyptian citizens, in UAE, on the pretext of being a member of MB. As an adverse action, it
laid down restrictions on the renewal of residence permits for Tunisian and Egyptian workers. So
there is no sign of reconciliation on Iran and Egypt fronts, which are the major contenders. On the
other hand, Saudi Arabia continues to maintain cordial relations with Israel, Jordon, Morocco, and
Bahrain. Further, to attract the MB countries on its side, it has invited Jordon and Morocco in the
GCC. GCC, under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, has also sent the soldiers in Bahrain to support
royal family there during the period of crisis.
Saudi Arabia, however, has certain limitations. It is one of the populous monarchies with
more social complexities among population. There are wider economic gaps. There are high rates of
unemployment, esp. among the youths. It is this group that was attracted towards the revolutions.
Though Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in military sector, its power is limited. For its security
concerns, Saudi Arabia depended on the US.
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.Understanding The Middle- East In The Post - Arab Spring Phase: A Geopolitical Perspective
2) Iran: Iran is struggling to cope with the US, UN and EU sanctions and to continue its Nuclear
Programme. During this period, the rise of Muslim Brotherhood in the form of Arab Spring has
renewed its confidence. This is so because most of the Muslim Brotherhood regimes are anti-western
and pro-Islamic. That is the reason why, it has perceived the Arab Spring as ‘Islamic Awakening’.
With this rejuvenated confidence, Iran is now attempting to gain the lost ground and create a new
identity in the region. The rise of Shia-dominated Iran would be a big problem the Sunni-dominated
Saudi Arabia. The relation between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to remain strained. However,
Iran is trying to develop a relationship with Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Palestine. It has rendered its
support to Syria as a ‘Frontline State’ against Israel and as a partner in Lebanon (Posch, 2012). It has
also supported Palestine for a search of its recognition as an Islamic power. More importantly, it is
attempting to gain Egypt’s support. Recently, Iran’s Foreign Minister Salehi visited Egypt that has
generated a lot of tension in the Saudi Arabia. Iran has furthered its relations with Iraq as well. The
confidence of Iran is so high that it has threatened US of blocking the flow of oil in the Strait of
Hormuz (Nafi, 2013). The fall of Syria is a cause of worry for Iran.
3)Egypt: For Egypt, the Arab Spring is a great opportunity to rise as a new regional leader and add
more North African flavour to the region. Knowing that such opportunity may not arise again, Egypt
is moving very cautiously but confidently. Egypt’s moves are extremely balanced, diplomatic and
constructive. It has neither favoured one Palestinian movement over the other nor put US or Israel
concerns first ((Perthes, 2013). Egypt, thus, is trying to be at safe distance and also improving
relations with Iran as well as Saudi Arabia. The Egypt-Iran relations are thawing as the former has
given permission to Iranian ships to pass through the Suez Canal. Further, Egypt is trying to appease
Saudi Arabia indirectly by allowing gas supplies to Israel. Egypt, however, has to play very safe. It
cannot oppose US out rightly as its military budgets depend on the US. Similarly, the regional
stability is extremely important for maintaining and increasing its revenues coming from the Suez
Canal and tourism. Many economic indicators are showing a low and Egypt has to take care of the
same. In the post-Mubarak phase, Egypt could not emerge as an active shaper as it was expected.
Further, after the military coup that has toppled the elected government, has been a big blow to
Muslim Brotherhood.
2. The Rising and Falling Actors of the Region:
It is no great surprise that the distribution of strengths and weaknesses across the region is
high-contingent and the regional power balance is fluid (Perthes, 2013). Some states have risen since
the beginning of the Spring, while others have lost.
1)Qatar: Qatar is an important rising country in the post-Arab Spring phase. It has displayed a strong
sense of immunity due to its less population and large income through oil. This immunity and the rise
of Muslim Brotherhood helped Qatar to challenge the Saudi Arabian leadership. In spite of being a
GCC country, it shows major policy shift by moving closer to the Muslim Brotherhood countries. So
it is building a rapport with Egypt, Syria and Libya. It has given a financial help to Egypt in exchange
of a promise for a large share in the expansion of the Suez Canal. It has also backed the Morsi
government in Egypt. Qatar also financed the activities of the Muslim brotherhood in Syria and also
supported Libyan revolution financially and militarily. Its recent move to apply for a seat in the UN
Security Council reflects its confidence.
2)Turkey: Turkey is another rising country. It endorses the Islamic-democratic model. It has an
awesome military strength and substantial soft power. Its economic strength, deep association with
EU and membership of NATO are the trump cards. However, these strengths could not translate into
direct influence in Syria, Iran, Egypt, and other countries. A more successful reconciliation with its
own Kurdish population would strengthen Turkey’s position in near future.
3)Israel: In the post-Arab Spring phase, Israel has emerged as a falling actor. It has become isolated
and extremely worried over the rise of Muslim Brotherhood and changed US policies towards the
Golden Research Thoughts | Volume 4 | Issue 5 | Nov 2014
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.Understanding The Middle- East In The Post - Arab Spring Phase: A Geopolitical Perspective
region. It is because the newly emerged more representative governments would align their policies
with majority opinion and not with the US and other elites. The fall of Egypt monarchy is a loss of its
partners. It has some major issues with Turkey over EEZ in the eastern Mediterranean. The attacks on
the Egyptian pipelines in Sinai region, that supply gas to Israel, and several cross-border attacks on
civilians and military personnel are the matters of great concern (Asseburg, 2012).
4)Iraq: Iraq is another falling actor in the region. It has slowly regained the economic strength, but
could not translate US withdrawal into a stronger position. Its inability to establish viable nonsectarian political system and a workable relationship between Baghdad and autonomous Kurdish
region are matters of concerns.
5)Syria: Syria has seriously lost its regional power status after civil war. It has become proxy for
regional forces that has lead to the threatening of its territorial integrity. While neither the regime nor
the rebels seem able to win militarily, Syrian society is unscrambling. At some point, a broad-based
government may be established in Damascus and Syrians may form a new social contract, but this
will take many years. The best-case future scenario is a decentralized or federal state; the worst case
is the Somalization of the country.
3. Pulling-in of the Remote but Interested Regions
Certain regions, though located far from the region, could be pulled-in the conflict. The best
example is that of India and China. Both of them are quietly fighting a strategic battle over the
Middle East, centred on two little-known ports in Iran and Pakistan with access to the Persian Gulf.
The two ports, Chabahar port on the south-eastern tip of Iran and Gwadar port on the south-western
tip of neighbouring Pakistan, are just 100 miles apart. China already controls Gwadar, which gives it
access to oil from the Middle East. India, meanwhile, just provided $100 million to renovate Iran’s
Chabahar port, which is used to ship its goods to Afghanistan (Watts, 2013). But now China is
making a play for Chabahar as well, offering $78 million in financing for an overhaul of the port
(Watts, 2013). China, thus, is quietly intruding into India’s geopolitical space in Iran. In the short
term, the two countries have very different stated aims. China intends to use land links to Gwadar
port to transport Middle Eastern oil and goods through Pakistan to its far western province of
Xinjiang. India, by contrast, wants to use Chabahar to trade with Afghanistan through Iran. But
neither country is short-sighted. The geopolitical importance of the Middle East and ensures that
whichever port gains prominence will be a lucrative venture. New Delhi is upset over China’s efforts
to develop a ‘string of pearls’ in the form of naval bases encircling India and throttle its maritime
expansion. On the other hand, Beijing is worried as it would be encircled by its neighbours in the
Pacific, especially in light of the United States’ renewed activity in the region.
IV. CONCLUSION
The Arab Spring, thus, has opened up the historic sectarian fault lines. Amidst the protests
and violence in the Arab streets, Iran has risen as a major regional power. Religious extremism has
become pronounced. Muslim Brotherhood has tasted power in Egypt but later has been thrown out of
power and subsequently banned by the Egyptian government. GCC counties like Qatar are involved
in carving out a new balance of power. Qatar, though small but extremely rich, is playing an
aggressive role in the new balance of power. Likewise, Turkey, which led the call for Assad regime to
reform, has become an important player in the region. The rise of Iran has deeply upset the Sunni
regimes. Its alleged quest for nuclear weapons has alarmed the GCC countries and Israel. Chemical
weapons have been used in Syria. In this process, the US has been seen as weak and not in control of
the situation. The US has already started talk to Iran on nuclear issue. The shale gas revolution in the
US will reduce its dependence upon the oil from the region although its strategic objective of
controlling Iran still remains. Saudi Arabia is extremely upset with the US on the Syrian deal and the
US talks with Iran. It showed its displeasure by not accepting a seat in the UNSC.
The entire understanding of the altered relationships in the post-Arab Spring phase shows
that the geopolitical equations would largely depend on the regional actors than the external players.
Golden Research Thoughts | Volume 4 | Issue 5 | Nov 2014
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.Understanding The Middle- East In The Post - Arab Spring Phase: A Geopolitical Perspective
This is more relevant at the backdrop of the US taking a backseat due to its energy selfreliance. So there is more space for the EU to influence the region. Highly mobilised population of
the Middle-East that has tasted the flavour of people’s power may take the geopolitics for a ride. The
economic crisis, if continued, may not sustain popular consensus. The common people expect that
the newly elected governments would manage their socio-economic problems and also build
democratic institutions. If the expectations are not fulfilled the highly mobilized population is more
likely to continue its challenge both to the elected and non-elected leaders. So it’s too early to predict
the consequences of the Arab Spring. Revolutions are unpredictable and it can take years before their
consequences become clear.
REFERENCES
1.Asseburg, M. (2012): “The Arab Spring and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: Freedom Without Peace?”
in M. Asseburg (ed.) “Protest, Revolt and Regime Change in the Arab World: Actors, Challenges,
Implications and Policy Options”, SWP Research Paper, RP 6, February 2012, Berlin.
2.BBC (2013): “Arab Spring: 10 Unpredicted Outcomes”, BBC News Middle East, December 13.
3.Dacrema, E. (2013): “New Emerging Balances in the Post-Arab Spring: The Muslim Brotherhood
and the Gulf Monarchies”, ISPI Analysis, No. 155, Instituto Per Gli Studi Di Politica Internationale,
Milan.
4.Nafi, B. (2013): “Indicators of the Geopolitical Shifts in the Middle-East”, The Middle-East
Monitor, Oct, 24.
5.Perthes, V. (2013): “The Dynamics of Disorder: Power Shifts and Geopolitics in the Middle-East”,
Geopolitical Risks – What’s Next?
6.Posch, W. (2012): “The Arab Spring and the Islamic Republic of Iran: Islamist Vision Meets
Political Reality”, in M. Asseburg (ed.) “Protest, Revolt and Regime Change in the Arab World:
Actors, Challenges, Implications and Policy Options”, SWP Research Paper, RP 6, February 2012,
Berlin.
7.Watts, J. (2013): “China and India are Battling Over Two Strategically Important Middle-East
Ports”, www.qz.com.
Dipesh Karmarkar
Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Smt. CHM College .
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