Money Morning 24 November 2014

Money Morning
24 November 2014
Indian Indices
Index
% Change
Last Close
Page No.

2
Corporate News

Macro Economic News
2

Derivative Corner
3
Page No.


5
Price Shockers
28,335
Nifty
4
Event Calendar
Sensex
Nifty vs Institutional Movement
8000
8477
8426
2000
8402
0
8390
(2000)
8382
(4000)
8,477
0.9
1.9
34.5
12,254
(0.0)
3.5
51.8
CNX IT
11,597
(0.7)
2.3
21.8
Bankex
18,056
2.3
5.9
58.6
Auto
18,925
0.5
1.9
54.4
Metal
11,127
0.1
(6.1)
11.7
FMCG
7,833
0.9
4.5
19.3
% Change
MTD
YTD
2,487
3.1
4.4
19.5
Nikkei 225
17,301
0.4
5.7
6.5
3,345
1.0
2.3
5.7
Hang Seng
23,437
2.2
(0.5)
2.4
8440
DJIA
17,810
0.5
2.4
7.4
8420
S&P 500
2,064
0.5
2.3
11.6
8400
8380
FTSE
6,751
1.1
3.1
0.0
(0.0)
1.6
10.3
8360
Live Markets
8500
Straits Times
Dollar Index
88
8340
(6000)
Shanghai
8320
14-Nov
17-Nov
18-Nov
FII (LHS)
19-Nov
20-Nov
MF (LHS)
21-Nov
Current Quote
2,528
% Change
Nifty (RHS)
1.7%
Volumes
As on 08:15 hours IST
Hang
Nikkei SGX Nifty
Seng
17,358
0.3%
8477
14.4
15.0
14.4
14.2
14.1
13.8
14.0
13.8
8426
8402
8390
13.9
13.2
8382
12.6
12.0
13-Nov
14-Nov
17-Nov
Nifty Spot (LHS)
18-Nov
19-Nov
20-Nov
21-Nov
INDIA VIX (RHS)
5 Day
32
172
139
163
3124
1878
2156
Spot market
1 Day
MTD
YTD
FII
(Rs bn)
1.2
78.6
727.1
MF
(Rs bn)
1.4
(59.6)
(116.7)
Bond Market
Historical Data (%)
10Yr Yield (G-Sec)
1 Day
1M
1 Yr
8.17
8.28
8.83
Currency Market
% Change
1day
MTD
INR/USD
61.78
0.3
(0.7)
0.0
INR/EURO
76.75
1.1
0.6
10.8
INR/GBP
96.78
0.3
1.5
5.5
Unit
Crude Oil(NYME)$/Bbl
YTD
% Change
Close
77
1 Day
MTD
YTD
0.2
(4.9)
(22.1)
(0.5)
Gold (OTC)
$/Oz
1,200
(0.1)
2.3
Copper (LME)
$/MT
6,785
0.8
0.3
(8.0)
Aluminum (LME) $/MT
2,065
1.1
0.4
17.7
Sugar (LIFFE)
$/MT
421
(0.2)
(0.4)
(6.3)
Zinc (LME)
$/MT
2,298
2.0
(0.4)
11.8
1,324
(0.6)
(7.3)
(41.9)
Baltic Dry Index
Source: Bloomberg
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 1
30 Day
NSE CASH
Commodities Update
Source: NSE
1.9%
35
Last Close
8358
23,871
34
14.3
8431
8383
14.4
0.6%
BSE CASH
Institutional Activities (Net)
Nifty vs India VIX
8,539
Moving Average (Rs bn)
NSE F&O
12-Nov
1 Day
1 Day
Source: NSE
8500
8480
8460
8440
8420
8400
8380
8360
8340
8320
8300
8280
33.8
Shanghai
8480
8460
6000
8431
YTD
1.7
Global Indices
Provisional Figures for Investments
4000
MTD
1.0
CNX Midcap
Last Close
(` Mn)
1 Day
Money Morning
24 November 2014
Corporate News/Results Corner
SUUTI stake sale in blue chip companies like ITC and L&T put on hold; Likely to go ahead with stake sale in Axis Bank –
Overhang of stake sale gets removed over ITC and L&T; Positive in short term for ITC and L&T
The finance ministry has put the sale of stakes in blue chips such as Larsen and Toubro and ITC, held by the Specified Undertaking of Unit
Trust of India, on the backburner because it's calculating this won't be needed to meet the government's fiscal deficit target thanks to
savings in expenditure as global commodity prices have dropped.The ministry is confident of raising the amount budgeted through
disinvestment in ONGC, Coal India and a few others. This combined with savings will mean the fiscal deficit target of 4.1% of GDP can be
met.
North Block was considering the sale of a part of the holdings through an exchange-traded fund but is now looking to sell only SUUTI's
residual stake in Axis Bank. SUUTI currently holds a 11.28% stake in ITC and 8.19% in L&T. It holds 11.7 per cent in Axis Bank, which is
worth more than Rs 130 bn. The holdings in the 3 companies are worth nearly Rs 600 bn at current prices, more than the Rs 580 bn
budgeted to be raised from asset sales in FY15. The government is already pushing 10% disinvestment in Coal India and 5% in ONGC,
which can fetch nearly Rs 380 bn at current prices.
We believe this development to be positive for ITC and L&T, as the overhang of the stake sale gets removed.
Macro-Economic and Other News
International News
Manufacturing growth may moderate in December quarter:
Global stock markets jump as China, Europe step up stimulus
FICCI
Global share markets are broadly trading higher as the prospect of
Showing signs of recovery, industrial production grew at a three-
further policy stimulus in China and Europe whetted risk appetites
month high of 2.5 % in September on account of better mining
while sending the euro skidding. The single currency was near 28-
and manufacturing output. The manufacturing output, which
month lows having shed 1.2 percent on Friday when European
constitutes over 75 % of the index, grew by 2.5 % in September,
Central Bank President Mario Draghi surprised by declaring his
compared to 1.4 % in the same month a year ago. "The outlook
commitment to fighting deflation. That came hot on the heels of an
on the basis of FICCI Manufacturing Survey for Q3 of 2014-15 is
unexpected cut in interest rates from the People's Bank of China.
less optimistic than Q2 of 2014-15 for the manufacturing sector
According to sources Beijing was ready to ease further to head off
as the proportion of respondents expecting higher production
slowing inflation.
vis-a-vis last year has fallen to 52 % in Q3 from 62 %in Q2," the
industry body said in its report.
Oil Prices higher on China surprise rate cut
Oil prices held on to small gains Friday, after an early rally was
Rs 700 crore fund to cushion against food inflation:
sparked by China’s decision to cut interest rates, fanning hopes for
The government will kick off a Rs 700 crore price stabilization
increasing demand from the world’s second-largest crude
fund soon in a move to shield consumers and farmers from price
consumer. The move came after oil prices had fallen 30% since
fluctuation of agricultural and horticultural products such as
June on worries about global production outpacing demand, and a
onion, potato, tomato and milk. The fund would be utilized in the
growing expectation that the Organization of the Petroleum
next three years and managed by an inter-ministerial panel
Exporting Countries will decided to curb production when the cartel
headed by the secretary of department of agriculture and
meets next week. A stimulus for the Chinese economy is
cooperation (DAC). Sources said the fund would be utilized in
something that gets macroeconomic investors to buy all kinds of
two steps. Faced with a price spike soon after assuming power,
commodities, oil included, said Andrew Lebow, senior vice
the Narendra Modi government had taken several steps to
president for energy derivatives at Jefferies Bache LLC. With lower
tackle inflation and setting up of the fund is one of the key
interest rates, the Chinese could spend freely enough to support
measures. Both retail and wholesale prices have cooled to
100,000 barrels of oil demand growth in 2015 in a best-case
record levels but authorities are keeping a close watch.
scenario, he said.
Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg, RTT News
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 2
Money Morning
24 November 2014
Nifty Grid % Change in Price
<
Daily Price Change (%)
Short
Covering
KOTAKBANK
HINDALCO
AXISBANK
PNB
BHEL
SBIN
CAIRN
RELIANCE
HEROMOTOCO
DLF
HDFC
ITC
AMBUJACEM
TATAMOTORS
LT
HDFCBANK
BANKBARODA
ACC
INDUSINDBK
M&M
ASIANPAINT
TCS
CIPLA
DRREDDY
BPCL
POWERGRID
BAJAJ-AUTO
GRASIM
GAIL
COALINDIA
NTPC
NMDC
IDFC
BHARTIARTL
MARUTI
ULTRACEMCO
HCLTECH
LUPIN
ONGC
TATASTEEL
RELINFRA
TECHM
HINDUNILVR
TATAPOWER
INFY
SUNPHARMA
ICICIBANK
Long Built
Up
2
1
0
(1)
Profit
Booking /
long
Unwinding
(2)
Short Built
Up
<
JINDALSTEL
<
-10
-5
0
5
Daily % Change in Open Interest* (Futures Current month)
10
>
Note: Summation of three series of future
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 3
Money Morning
24 November 2014
Event Calendar
Economy
Monday 24 Nov
Tuesday 25 Nov
Wednesday 26 Nov
Thursday 27 Nov
Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
Oct (Prior 40897)
GDP YoY (Prior 5.7%)
Domestic
US:
Market US Services
PMI
Nov P (Exp 57.3 Prior
57.1)
Market US Composite
PMI
(Prior 57.2)
Global
Friday 28 Nov
Industrial Production
MoM Oct (Exp 0.20%,
Prior 1.00%)
JAPAN:
GDP SA QoQ 3Q P
(Exp 0.50%, Prior 1.80%)
GDP Annualized SA
QoQ 3Q P (Exp 2.20%,
Prior -7.10%)
US:
GDP Annualized QoQ
3Q S (Exp 3.3%, Prior
3.5%)
FHFA House Price
Index MoM Sep
S (Exp 0.50%, Prior
0.50%)
Consumer Confidence
Index Nov (Exp 95.8
Prior 94.5)
PPI Final Demand
MoM Oct (Exp -0.10%,
Prior -0.10%)
PPI Final Demand YoY
Oct (Exp 1.30%, Prior
1.60%)
UK:
CPI MoM Oct (Exp
0.10%, Prior 0.00%)
CPI YoY Oct (Exp
1.20%, Prior 1.20%)
CPI Core YoY Oct (Exp
1.60%, Prior 1.50%)
US:
Initial Jobless Claims
22 Nov (Prior 291K)
PCE Core MoM Oct
(Exp 0.10%, Prior
0.10%)
PCE Core YoY Oct
(Exp 1.50%, Prior
1.50%)
New Home Sales Oct
(Initial 470K,Prior
467K)
New Home Sales MoM
Oct S (Exp 0.60%,
Prior 0.20%)
UK:
GDP QoQ 3Q P S (Exp
0.70%, Prior 0.70%)
GDP YoY 3Q P S (Exp
3.00%, Prior 3.00%)
Government Spending
QoQ 3Q P S (Exp
0.10%, Prior 1.00%)
Index of Services MoM
Sep (Exp 0.30%, Prior
0.00%)
CPI YoY Sep (Exp
5.90%, Prior 5.90%)
CPI MoM Sep (Exp
0.20%, Prior 0.00%)
RUSSIA:
Industrial Production
YoY
Oct Sep (Exp 1.50%,
Prior 2.80%)
SOUTH AFRICA:
PPI MoM Oct (Exp
0.20% Prior 0.10%)
PPI YoY Oct (Exp
6.60% Prior 6.90%)
EC:
Economic Confidence
Nov (Exp 101 Prior
100.7)
Industrial Confidence
Nov (Exp-4.9 Prior 5.1)
CPI MoM Oct (Exp 0.10%, Prior 0.10%)
CPI YoY Oct (Exp
1.60%, Prior 1.70%)
Initial Jobless Claims
15th Nov 290K
Existing Home Sales
MoM
Oct (Exp -0.40%, Prior
-2.40%)
CHINA:
HSBC China
Manufacturing PMI Nov
P (Exp 50.3 Prior 50.4)
EC:
Market Eurozone
Manufacturing PMI Nov
P
(Exp 50.9 Prior 50.6)
Market Eurozone
Services PMI Nov P
(Exp 52.4 Prior 52.3)
Market Eurozone
Composite PMI
(Exp 52.3 Prior 52.1)
Consumer Confidence
Nov A (Exp -10.7 Prior
-11.1)
JAPAN:
Market/JMMA Japan
Manufacturing PMI Nov
P
(Exp 52.7 Prior 52.4)
EC:
CPI Estimate YoY Nov
(Exp 0.30%)
CPI Core YoY Nov A
(Exp 0.70%, Prior
0.70%)
JAPAN:
Tokyo CPI YoY Nov
(Exp 2.30%, Prior
2.50%)
Industrial Production
MoM Oct P (Exp 0.50%, Prior 2.90%)
Industrial Production
YoY Oct P (Exp 1.70%, Prior 0.80%)
PPI MoM Oct (Exp 0.50%, Prior -0.80%)
PPI YoY Oct (Exp
4.20%, Prior 3.5%)
S ource: Bloomberg
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 4
Money Morning
24 November 2014
Price Shockers
Gainers
Company
NETWORK18
SANOFI
Close
price (`)
Change
Price (`)
Losers
Change
Price (%) Company
Close
price (`)
59.3
4.5
8.2 RASOYPR
3.2
Change
Price (`)
Change
Price (%)
(0.4)
(9.9)
3,678.5
216.6
6.3 ESSAROIL
100.2
(8.1)
(7.5)
SOUTHBANK
27.9
1.5
5.5 BAJAJELEC
216.1
(13.8)
(6.0)
TV18BRDCST
31.1
1.6
5.4 BALRAMCHIN
62.0
(3.5)
(5.3)
ALSTOMT&D
423.5
21.0
5.2 BAJAJHLDNG
1,466.9
(71.9)
(4.7)
KTKBANK
143.1
6.9
5.1 GITANJALI
52.7
(2.3)
(4.2)
11.9
0.6
4.9 KAILASH
17.4
(0.8)
(4.1)
VOLTAS
RAJESHEXPO
275.9
162.9
12.0
6.9
4.5 FINCABLES
4.4 AJANTPHARM
258.5
2,377.1
(11.1)
(100.2)
(4.1)
(4.0)
YESBANK
703.4
27.2
4.0 ALOKTEXT
11.3
(0.5)
(4.0)
FEDERALBNK
PIDILITIND
147.5
440.5
5.6
16.3
4.0 CESC
3.8 NIITTECH
690.3
381.2
(24.2)
(13.1)
(3.4)
(3.3)
RTNPOWER
KOTAKBANK
1,199.7
42.6
3.7 JKLAKSHMI
375.6
(12.6)
(3.3)
DBCORP
375.0
12.6
3.5 GESHIP
397.9
(13.3)
(3.2)
NAUKRI
959.1
31.5
3.4 APLLTD
435.5
(14.1)
(3.1)
Source: BSE
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 5
Money Morning
24 November 2014
Research Team
Vivek Mahajan
Hemant Thukral
Head of Research
Head – Derivatives Desk
022-61802820
022-61802870
vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com
hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com
Fundamental Team
Sunny Agrawal
FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps
022-61802831
sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com
Shreyans Mehta
Construction/Real Estate
022-61802829
shreyans.m@adityabirla.com
Jaymin Trivedi
Banking & Finance
022-61802833
jaymin.trivedi@adityabirla.com
Pradeep Parkar
Database Analyst
022-61802839
pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com
Sudeep Shah
Sr.Technical Analyst
022-61802837
sudeep.shah@adityabirla.com
Rahil Vora
Technical Analyst
022-61802834
rahil.vora@adityabirla.com
Soni Patnaik
Derivative Analyst
022-61802832
soni.patnaik@adityabirla.com
Suresh Gardas
Advisory Desk
022-61802835
suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com
Salim Hajiani
Advisory Desk
022-61325224
salim.hajiani@adityabirla.com
Mohan Jaiswal
Executive – Research Support
022-61802838
mohan.jaiswal@adityabirla.com
Quantitative Team
Advisory Support
ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 6
Money Morning
24 November 2014
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