Latest Energy Market Update

Energy Market Update
November 20, 2014
Premier Energy Group, LLC / 1275 Bound Brook Rd, Suite 6, Middlesex, NJ 08846 / Fax: 732-302-0606
Market Outlook
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Avg.
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Natural Gas Futures Prices ($/dth)
NYMEX Settle on November 19, 2014
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.084 $ 3.354 $ 4.407 $
4.516
2.678 $ 3.226 $ 5.557 $
4.488
2.446 $ 3.427 $ 4.855 $
4.397
2.191 $ 3.976 $ 4.584 $
3.798
2.036 $ 4.152 $ 4.795 $
3.731
2.429 $ 4.148 $ 4.619 $
3.747
2.774 $ 3.707 $ 4.400 $
3.767
3.010 $ 3.459 $ 3.808 $
3.775
2.634 $ 3.567 $ 3.957 $
3.763
3.023 $ 3.498 $ 3.984 $
3.792
3.471 $ 3.496 $ 3.728 $
3.867
3.696 $ 3.818 $ 4.371 $
4.033
2.789 $ 3.652 $ 4.422 $
3.973
2016
$ 4.154
$ 4.116
$ 4.039
$ 3.776
$ 3.764
$ 3.785
$ 3.810
$ 3.819
$ 3.804
$ 3.828
$ 3.899
$ 4.057
$ 3.904
The Natural Gas 12- and 24-month NYMEX strip prices jumped from last week, settling yesterday at
$4.001/dth (up 5.10%) and $3.952/dth (up 2.84%) respectively.
The December contract has risen over $0.39 from the end of last week as a result of belowaverage weather forecasts and expectations of a natural gas storage withdrawal today.
The EIA reported the first Natural Gas storage withdrawal of the season, 17 bcf , which was higher
than expectations of a 9-13 bcf withdrawal. The storage inventory of 3,594 bcf is 201 bcf behind
last year and 244 bcf behind the 5-year average.
Natural Gas - NYMEX 12-month futures strip ($/dth)
$6
$4
Note : Prices in red italics are historical - NYMEX contract expired.
$2
11/1/14
9/1/14
7/1/14
5/1/14
3/1/14
1/1/14
11/1/13
9/1/13
7/1/13
5/1/13
3/1/13
1/1/13
11/1/12
9/1/12
7/1/12
5/1/12
3/1/12
$0
1/1/12
Natural Gas NYMEX Strip Prices ($/dth)
3-month strip
$4.458
6-month strip
$4.217
12-month strip
$4.001
18-month strip
$3.994
24-month strip
$3.952
Apr15-Oct15
$3.768
Nov14-Mar15
$4.300
4.062
4.136
Natural Gas Storage (bcf) week ending 11/14/14
This week
-17 bcf
3,594 bcf
Last week
40 bcf
3,611 bcf
This week last year
-36 bcf
3,795 bcf
5-Year Average
-10 bcf
3,838 bcf
Electricity - Prompt Month On-Peak Prices ($/mwh)
PJM West
NY ISO
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
Note : Negative number denotes withdrawal
Fuel Prices - prompt month NYMEX
Natural Gas
$ 4.371 /dth
$
4.37
Crude Oil
$ 74.58 /barrel
$
12.77
#2 Heating Oil
$ 2.359 /gallon
$
16.97
NY Harbor Gasoline $ 2.044 /gallon
$
15.72
Crude Oil - Natural Gas Spread:
$
8.40
Financial Indicators
Dow Jones Industrial Average
NASDAQ
S&P 500
Euro - U.S. Dollar ($)
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate (%)
/mmbtu
/mmbtu
/mmbtu
/mmbtu
17,611.78
4,655.20
2,043.09
1.2563
0.25%
Weather (6-10 day forecast)
Expect below-average temperatures for a large portion of the US (from
Mountain to Central). Above-average temperatures will occur in most of
the East Coast as well as California. Small bands of normal temps will be
seen in parts of the Northwest, Mountain states, and parts of the Midwest.
HEATING DEGREE DAYS - Newark, NJ
H.D.D.s
2014-2015 (Oct-May) Season to Date
557
2013/14 (Oct-May of prior year)
525
NORMAL (30-year average) - Season to Date
585
Senate Fails to Approve Keystone Pipeline
The Senate failed to pass legislation this week which would authorize the go-ahead for the
Keystone XL pipeline project that would ship crude oil from Canada to U.S. refineries on the Gulf
Coast. Keystone XL represents about 1/3 of the entire Keystone project. The rest of the pipe has
been built, laid out, and in some cases, is already shipping thousands of barrels of crude oil from
the Canadian oil sands across the U.S. border. The current Keystone XL proposal would run the
pipeline through Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The oil
sands are one of environmentalists' biggest reasons to reject the proposed Keystone XL pipeline
since extracting crude oil from the oil sands pumps about 17% more greenhouse gases into the
air than standard crude oil extraction, according to a State Department review of the project.
A Republican majority in 2015 is expected to bring the project up for a vote again early in the next
Congress, which could generate movement on a proposal that has stalled for six years because
of environmental concerns and political division over the plan.
Richard J. Albanese
Laurie A. Albee
Leigh-Ann Barrett
Joanne Comune
Nick Brown
Emmett Capanna
Scott K. Fawcett
Richard A. Haynal
Thomas Pennimpede
Patricia Prugh
Joseph L. Santo
Sara Shapiro
Charles S. Wilk
732-302-0601ext 601
ralbanese@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 614
lalbee@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 607
lbarrett@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 612
jcomune@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 611
nbrown@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 610
ecapanna@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 608
sfawcett@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 602
rhaynal@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 605
tpennimpede@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 609
pprugh@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 603
jsanto@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 613
sshapiro@premierenergygroup.com
732-302-0601ext 604
cwilk@premierenergygroup.com
This information is provided for informational purposes only. Premier Energy Group, LLC makes no representation or warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of any data provided herein.
Any recommendations or opinions provided by Premier Energy Group, LLC are not to be considered guarantees, at this time or in the future. This document may not be reproduced, retransmitted or
redistributed without the prior written consent of Premier Energy Group, LLC.
11/1/14
9/1/14
7/1/14
5/1/14
3/1/14
1/1/14
11/1/13
9/1/13
7/1/13
5/1/13
3/1/13
1/1/13
11/1/12
9/1/12
7/1/12
5/1/12
3/1/12
1/1/12
$0
Gas Daily Midpoint - Cash Prices ($/dth) - flow date 11/20/14
Henry Hub
$
4.395
Transco Zone 6 - NY
$
4.795
Transco Zone 6 - non NY
$
4.755
Tetco Zone M3
$
4.425