18-Dec-2014 Gold switched between small gains

Shriram Market Analysis
& Research Team
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
18 December 2014
ECONOMIC/GLOBAL NEWS

China house prices fell 3.7% in November from the year-ago period,
after dropping 2.6% in October.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it will be "patient" in determining
when to raise interest rates, a subtle change in language from its
previous vow to keep rates near zero for a "considerable time." "Based
on its current assessment, the (Federal Open Market) Committee
judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of
monetary policy," the Fed said.

U.S. current-account deficit increased to $100.3 billion (preliminary) in
the third quarter of 2014 from $98.4 billion (revised) in the second
quarter.

U.S. consumer price index dropped by 0.3% in November after coming
in unchanged in October. Core consumer prices, inched up by 0.1% in
November after rising by 0.2% in October. Consumer price index
contributed to a notable slowdown in the annual rate of growth, which
slowed to 1.3% in November from 1.7% in October. The annual rate of
core consumer price growth also slowed to 1.7% in November from
1.8% in the previous month.

Bank of England policymakers decided to leave its key rate at a historic
low of 0.50% in a split vote for the fifth straight time at the meeting held
on December 3 and 4. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to
retain its key rate at 0.50%. Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale sought a
25 basis-point hike for the fifth straight meeting. Regarding the asset
purchase programme, the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously
decided to maintain it at GBP 375 billion.

Index
Dow
Nifty
Sensex
USD/INR
Dollar Index
Euro/$1US
$1US/Yen
Pound/$1US
.........Investing
17356.87
8029.80
26710.13
63.525
89.33
1.2343
118.66
1.5575
16-Dec-14
Pts. Ch.
% Change
17068.87 288.00
1.69
8067.60
-37.80
-0.47
26781.44
-71.31
-0.27
63.660
-0.13
-0.21
88.30
1.03
1.17
1.2511
-0.0168 -1.34
116.41
2.25
1.93
1.5749
-0.0174 -1.10
Market Update

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average scored their
best one-day gains of 2014 Wednesday, shrugging off fallingoil worries and global deflationary concerns, after the Federal
Reserve conveyed a more dovish posture at the conclusion of
its two-day meeting. The S&P 500 closed 40.15 points, or 2%,
higher at 2,012.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
288 points, or 1.7%, to 17,356.87. The Nasdaq Composite
added 96.48 points, or 2.12%, to 4,644.31.

Indian market ended lower for the fifth straight day, amid
volatile trading session.
Currency Update

The dollar shot up against most major currencies on
Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered an upbeat
take on the U.S. economy and used a dovish timetable phrase
in a new light, suggesting that rate hikes are on the way though
monetary authorities won't rush to act. Euro was down 1.25%
at 1.2354. The dollar was up against the yen, up 1.76% at
118.47. The greenback was up against the pound, with down
1.03% at 1.5587. The US dollar index was up 1.27% at 89.18.

The rupee retreated from 13-month lows after the central bank
stepped up intervention, while bonds also recovered despite
concerns over whether foreign funds will stick with India, one of
the star performers this year among emerging markets. The
partially convertible rupee ended at 63.6150/6250 per dollar,
weaker than its 63.53/54 close. It had earlier weakened to as
much as 63.89, its lowest since Nov. 13, 2013.
U.K. jobless rate fell to 6% during August to October, down from 6.2%
seen in the May to July period. During August to October, there were
1.96 million unemployed, 63,000 fewer than in the May to July period.
Smart
17-Dec-14
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : research@shriraminsight.com
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
18 December 2014
PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices corrected on the back of strong local currency and it was yet
again a volatile session. The February prices ended the day at Rs
26955 per 10 grams against levels of Rs 27194 per 10 grams. Silver
March delivery quoted at Rs 36731, down 0.01%.

Gold futures switched between small gains and losses, after briefly
jumping above the key round number of $1,200 in the wake of what
some analysts described as a more-dovish-than-anticipated Federal
Reserve statement. Gold for February delivery was up 20 cents, or
0.02%, to $1,194.50 an ounce. March silver jumped 18 cents, or 1.12%,
to settle at $15.928 an ounce.
Open Interest
Closing
Bullion
Gold February MCX
Gold February Comex
Silver March MCX
Silver March Comex
Open
27150
1195
36762
15.755
Bullion
( Technical )
Gold February MCX
Gold February Comex
Silver March MCX
Silver March Comex
High
27247
1203
37047
16.060
Low
26915
1182
36226
15.615
17-Dec-14
26955
1195
36731
15.928
16-Dec-14
27194
1194
36727
15.752
% Ch
-0.88
0.02
0.01
1.12
17-Dec-14
8377
226492
8451
102188
% Ch
-1.71
-2.23
0.23
-0.76
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
26955
1195
36731
15.928
26499
1162
35468
15.230
26707
1172
35847
15.423
26831
1183
36289
15.675
27039
1193
36668
15.868
27163
1204
37110
16.120
27371
1214
37489
16.313
27495
1226
37931
16.565
Holdings In Tonnes As On
Name of the ETF
16-Dec-14
8523
231650
8432
102971
17-Dec-2014
16-Dec-2014
%Ch
17-Dec-2014
Ratio
Close
Ratio
Close
SPDR Gold ETF
721.56
721.56
0.00
Gold v/s Silver
1194.50
15.928
74.99
iShares Silver Trust
10544.01
10606.57
-0.59
Gold v/s Crude Oil
1194.50
56.79
21.03
OUTLOOK OF PRECIOUS METALS
Likely to remain range-bound with positive bias. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : research@shriraminsight.com
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
18 December 2014
BASE METALS

Copper markets were in deficit during January-October 2014, however
in intraday the domestic as well as international prices kept on
declining on the back of weak set of data from China last evening. The
decline in the manufacturing activity in China is a sign for weakness in
consumption in days to come. MCX Copper February expiry closed the
last session trades at Rs 407.15 per kg, down for the third straight day
in a row.

World Bureau of Metal Statistics report showed that copper market
recorded a deficit of 62000 tonnes in January to October 2014 which
follows a surplus of 281000 tonnes in the whole of 2013. Reported
stocks fell by 191 kt over the ten months. No allowance is made in the
consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in
the Chinese government stockpile World mine production in January to
October 2014 was 15.27 million tonnes which was 1.13 per cent higher
than in the same period in 2013. Global refined production rose to
18.84 million tonnes up 7.1 per cent compared with the previous year
with a significant increase recorded in China (up 822 kt) more than
compensating for the 17.0 kt fall in Chilean output and 6.1 kt decrease
in German production. Global consumption for January to October
2014 was 18905.6 kt compared to 21039 kt for the whole of 2013.
LME Inventories (In Tonnes)
Base Metals
Aluminum
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
17-Dec-14
16-Dec-14
4261750
172200
406854
219825
685275
4272100
172675
405174
219825
687450
Base Metals
( Closing )
21-Mar-12
Base Metals
( Technical )
Aluminium ( December )
Copper ( February )
Nickel ( December )
Lead ( December )
Zinc ( December )
% Change
-10350
-475
1680
0
-2175
-0.24
-0.28
0.41
0.00
-0.32
20-Mar-12
16-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
LME Aluminium ( Spot )
LME Aluminum (3 Month Forward )
MCX Aluminium ( December )
LME Copper ( Spot )
LME Copper ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Copper ( February )
LME Nickel ( Spot )
LME Nickel ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Nickel ( December )
LME Lead ( Spot )
LME Lead ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Lead ( December )
LME Zinc ( Spot )
LME Zinc ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Zinc ( December )
Change
1863.00
1893.00
120.70
6305.00
6269.00
407.15
15425.00
15475.00
992.50
1866.00
1877.00
118.95
2113.00
2128.00
135.45
1874.50
1908.00
120.80
6385.00
6350.00
408.75
16125.00
16250.00
1019.80
1936.00
1950.00
122.05
2142.00
2156.00
136.55
%Change
%Change
-0.61
-0.79
-0.08
-1.25
-1.28
-0.39
-4.34
-4.77
-2.68
-3.62
-3.74
-2.54
-1.35
-1.30
-0.81
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
120.70
407.15
992.50
118.95
135.45
118.00
396.70
928.00
114.30
131.60
118.60
399.90
953.60
116.50
132.90
119.70
403.50
973.00
117.70
134.20
120.30
406.70
998.60
119.90
135.50
121.40
410.40
1018
121.10
136.80
122.00
413.60
1044
123.30
138.10
123.10
417.20
1063
124.50
139.40
OUTLOOK OF BASE METALS
Likely to remain range-bound with positive bias. Trade tracking support and resistances.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : research@shriraminsight.com
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
18 December 2014
ENERGY

Crude Oil gained for the first time in three days, making life a bit easier
for bulls. Heavy correction in last one month has depleted the
sentiments. The January prices ended the day at Rs 3730 per barrel,
against Rs 3627 per barrel. December Natural Gas closed at Rs. 235
per British thermal unit, up 0.17%.

U.S. crude-oil futures bounced back, rebounding from a five-year low
after data showed crude inventories declined, although less than
forecast. Crude futures for delivery in February settled higher by 53
cents, or 0.94%, at $56.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. January natural gas up 8.3 cents, or 2.29%, to end at $3.702
per million British thermal units.
EIA Crude Oil Inventories Data
Crude inventories declined by 847,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 12.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories rose by 5.25
million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 207,000fff million barrels.
EIA Natural Gas Inventories Forecast
The EIA will issue its weekly natural-gas supply report on Thursday, with
consensus expectations calling for an decrease of 60 billion cubic feet for the
week ended Dec. 142.
Open Interest
Closing
ENERGY
Crude Oil January MCX
Crude February Nymex
Natural Gas December MCX
Natural Gas January Henry Hub
ENERGY
( Technical )
Crude Oil January MCX
Crude February Nymex
Natural Gas December MCX
Natural Gas January Henry Hub
Open
3592
55.85
234.40
3.621
High
3772
59.27
238.00
3.724
Low
3515
54.60
231.70
3.614
17-Dec-14
3730
56.79
235.00
3.702
16-Dec-14
3627
56.26
234.60
3.619
% Ch
2.84
0.94
0.17
2.29
17-Dec-14
16204
300200
9137
82885
16-Dec-14
13279
267302
9404
95624
% Ch
22.03
12.31
-2.84
-13.32
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
3730
56.79
235.00
3.702
3316
49.83
225.50
3.526
3415
52.22
228.60
3.570
3573
54.50
231.80
3.636
3672
56.89
234.90
3.680
3830
59.17
238.10
3.746
3929
61.56
241.20
3.790
4087
63.84
244.40
3.856
OUTLOOK OF ENERGY
Likely to remain range-bound with negative bias. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : research@shriraminsight.com
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
18 December 2014
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Time
12:30:00 AM
6:00:00 AM
7:00:00 AM
2:30:00 PM
2:30:00 PM
2:30:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
7:00:00 PM
7:00:00 PM
7:00:00 PM
8:15:00 PM
9:00:00 PM
Country
U.S.
Australia
China
Germany
Germany
Germany
U.K.
U.K.
U.K.
U.K.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
Thursday December 18, 2014
Event
FOMC Statement
RBA Bulletin
House Prices (YoY) (Nov)
German Business Expectations (Dec)
German Current Assessment (Dec)
German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec)
Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
Continuing Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Services PMI (Dec)
Natural Gas Storage
Actual
-3.7%
Forecast Previous
-2.6%
99.7
110.0
104.7
4.6%
0.8%
4.3%
0.8%
2,514K
294K
299.25K
57.1
56.2
-60B
-51B
101.1
110.3
105.4
4.5%
0.4%
4.2%
0.3%
2,430K
295K
D I S C L A I M E R
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Smart
.........Investing
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