Global Warming: Current Issues And Implications
Transcription
Global Warming: Current Issues And Implications
International Journal of Innovative Environmental Studies Research 2 (4):14-26, Oct-Dec. 2014 © SEAHI PUBLICATIONS, 2014 www.seahipub.org ISSN: 2354-2918 GLOBAL WARMING: CURRENT ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS Godwill U. CHUKWU Department of Physics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, P.M.B. 7267, Umuahia, Abia State, Nigeria. Tel: +2348025691478, E-mail: chukwug@yahoo.com ABSTRACT For some decades now, global warming has been with us. As the name connotes, it is a universal issue which has vivid, tremendous and pronounced effects in every part of the globe. Its impacts and effects depend on the geographical location of the region on the surface of the earth. In this short essay, the author examines and reviews the issues of global warming and its implications so far in some climatic regions of the world. Of the two principal causes of this problem or menace, natural and artificial, the latter has contributed immensely to the problem and the situation gets worse as the days go by. Some of the major issues and implications have been highlighted and remedies have also been suggested for a way forward to minimize, or if possible, cease the un-friendly impacts. Keywords: earth, global warming, temperature, climatic variation, greenhouse emissions, IPCC INTRODUCTION Global warming is an overall warming up of the planet Earth based on the average temperature increase over the earth’s atmosphere and oceans caused by both natural and man-made activities. Normally, when a body acquires heat as a form of energy, its physical conditions change. Our earth as a body, owing to various natural and artificial causes, gets heated up and warm with a temperature increase. The term ‘climate change’ refers to long-term regional changes in climate which include temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, sun-shine, severe weather events and harmattan. Like global warming, climate change has both natural and artificial causes. Global warming and climate change are used interchangeably but they are not exactly the same. They are two different things, but one gives rise to the other. The natural causes of climate change include solar activity, volcanoes, continental drift and ocean currents. The major artificial or man-made cause of climate change is attributed to the increased level of greenhouse gases (GHG) especially carbon dioxide, CO2 in the atmosphere (Trevarthen, 2009). GHGs prevent solar radiation from being discharged into space. Carbon dioxide is the major gas. Some GHGs are synthetic e.g. chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) while others like carbon and water vapor occur naturally in the environment. These emissions spread around the earth’s atmosphere and form a cover that traps solar energy which radiates out into space resulting in increased temperatures. Human activities such as coal, oil, natural gas and wood burning (NAS, 2014) have astronomically increased the level of production of GHGs (Fig. 1). 14 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 o C Fig.1: Earth’s average surface (land/ocean) temperature from 1850-2012 (NAS, 2014). Fig. 2: Different situations global warming anticipation Figure 2 displays the situations if global emissions were to stop suddenly (a) it would take some time for surface air temperatures and the ocean to cool, (b) because the excess CO 2 in the atmosphere would remain there for a long time and would continue to exert a warming effect and (c) when global warming is continuous and unabated. 15 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 Global warming and climate change affect every part of the earth though the effects or evidences might be different. Existing climatic regions have a range of effects resulting from climatic variations. Experience of past changes suggests that the mid and high latitudes suffer the greatest modifications in general climatic conditions (Nieuwolt, 1977). The recent concern over human-made changes in the composition and structure of the Earth’s atmosphere (Shaw, 1994; Scheidegger, 1976; Wyllie, 1971) and the increasing ability of model changes in climate have led scientists to study the dynamic components or factors contributing to climate as distinct from current weather. Consideration of these factors has helped in making climatic projections of atmospheric, hydrological, agricultural, vegetative and other useful models that could have practical applications for developing countries like Nigeria (ICTP, 2009). It has been established by researchers and scientists using instrumental records that there has been global warming and climate variation or fluctuation in the past few decades. The variability of the world climatic system can be observed from Figure 3. Again, as a global phenomenon, evidences and issues abound within Nigeria, the West African sub-region and indeed the whole universe. Thus, it is a general notion that the earth is warming and may give rise to some unpleasant consequences to mankind and the environment in future if nothing is done to reduce the rate of warming (Awake, 2008; Houghton, 1984). Some of the effects of global warming on the environment have adversely affected the health, food production and every aspect of our livelihood (Evenson, 1999). Fig. 3: Global average sea level since late 19C The purpose of this review study is to adduce enough evidence that there is global warming, outline some current issues (locally and globally) and their implications as well as the ways to minimize its impacts. This study could help further researches to factor adaptive capacity into ecological modeling under climate change. STRUCTURE AND COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE It is pertinent to briefly discuss the portion of the earth where climate phenomena take place. The gaseous envelope of the Earth is densest near the surface and thins out gradually with height. The structure and composition of the atmosphere are shown in Figure 4 and Table 1 respectively. 16 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 Table 1: Composition of the atmosphere Gas Volume (%) 78.09 N2 20.95 O2 O.93 Ar 0.03 CO2 0.002 Ne 0.0005 He (Source: Scheidegger, 1976) Figure 4: Structure of the earth’s atmosphere (source: Scheidegger, 1976). From the surface of the earth to eighteen (18) km vertically into the atmosphere constitutes the troposphere. This is where considerable amount of turbulence produce weather or climatic phenomena. Here, the temperature decreases with height. At the end of the troposphere begins the stratosphere which attains the next vertical height of fifty (50) km. The temperature is initially constant and then rises. The next eighty (80) km is called the mesosphere where the temperature begins to drop. The thermosphere or ionosphere is the next layer where the temperature increases very rapidly into the exosphere. The study of weather phenomena occurring within the troposphere is called meteorology whose parameters of interest include pressure, temperature, humidity, wind direction and velocity. Others are rate and form of precipitation and type and degree of cloud cover (Scheidegger, 1976; Lowrie, 1997; Adedeji et al., 2014). 17 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 METHODOLOGY (CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING The causative factors that bring about global warming and climate change as mentioned earlier are of two main categories viz: natural causes and artificial or man-made causes. The man-made causes could also be referred to as human activities. Natural causes: The natural causes of global warming and climate change include volcanoes, ocean current and continental drift. Also, solar activities constitute natural causes. For these naturally occurring causative processes, little or nothing can be done to prevent them. Through scientific studies, the causative factors can be predicted to know when these natural events will take place and possible precautions taken. Man’s main concern is the artificial or man-made causes of global warming. Man-induced causes (human activities): Some human activities constitute man-made causes of global warming knowingly or unknowingly to man. Certain activities carried out on daily basis escalate and aggravate the already warmed earth. Some of these activities or actions include: The greenhouse effect – Scientifically, one of the major reasons adduced for global warming and climate change is the intensification of the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) which comprise of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), sulphur dioxide (SO2), water vapor and other gases, are the problems emanating from gradual rise in temperature of the earth’s atmosphere caused by constant production and increase in the afore-mentioned gases mainly carbon dioxide (Fig. 2). Carbon dioxide in the air surrounding the earth traps the radiant heat of the sun. The production of carbon dioxide is a natural phenomenon very vital for life (photosynthesis) on our planet earth but its over-production is inimical to our existence. When the radiant heat from the sun’s energy falls upon the earth’s surface, about 70% of it is absorbed which heats up the air, land and sea. But for this mechanism, the average surface temperature of the earth would be much lower than what it is. Eventually, the absorbed heat is released back into space as infra-red (IR) radiation, thus preventing the earth from over-heating. However, when the pollutants change the composition of the atmosphere; less heat escapes and hence, causes the temperature to rise. The Industrial Revolution - The era referred to as the ‘Industrial Revolution’ in Europe and the United States of America (in the 18th and 19th centuries) witnessed the use of machines in manufacturing. Exhaust gases fuming from those machines contribute immensely to the production of GHGs. Recall that the use of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas produce large volume of these exhaust gases into the atmosphere whose concentration has increased markedly since the start of the industrial revolution for over twenty-five decades now. CO2 level in 2012 jumped 40% higher than it was in 19 century. Its increase took place from 1970, about the time when global energy consumption accelerated. Fig.5: Industrial revolution in Europe. Food production and livestock farming – This is another greenhouse-enhancing factor which appears to be the rising population of farm animals whose digestive processes produce methane (CH 4) and nitrous 18 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 oxide (N2O) continuously. These gases add to the environmental debasement of the supposedly serene atmosphere. There are other human activities performed everyday directly or indirectly, knowingly or inadvertently, which degrade the environment (Moutgomery, 2000). These activities include deforestation, bush burning and hunting (crude forms of agriculture), dumping of toxic materials and depletion of the ozone layer (Chukwu, 2008). Aerosols of natural and anthropogenic origins deserve to be mentioned, too. Their effects (i.e. aerosols and gases) can be either long-lived or short-lived. While the short-lived aerosols absorb and reflect radiation and decrease temperature, the long-lived gases trap the radiation and cause increase in temperature. We can as well include increase in human population and man’s insatiable desires for better and more comfortable pleasure. For instance, in a bid to erect a factory, a natural vegetation cover whose reflective power is intact becomes ‘’destroyed”. Using gasoline-powered cars pollute the atmosphere with exhaust fumes. Also, uncontrollable use of generating sets which pump out acoustic and particulate emissions into the environment constitute debasement of our natural habitat and thus create an imbalance in the normal ecosystem equation. Air pollution - surrounding air pollution is a related problem to our environment as the pollutants responsible for poor quality air and is also part of the greenhouse gases that are contributing to global warming. Discussions on air pollution are normally focused on visibility and air quality but reducing emissions that cause air pollution will also reduce GHG levels. In recent time the Chinese have been having it very rough due to serious air pollution. Most of the people are having cardio-respiratory diseases and other health problems. This air pollution is believed to be caused by the use of free coal to drive industrial boilers. Ozone layer depletion - the ozone layer depletion is quite different from global warming and climate change but relates to them in a way. The ozone layer is a gaseous layer that acts as a protective shield against ultra violet (UV) radiation in the upper atmosphere. It absorbs UV rays which are very lethal to human life on earth. Depletion or reduction in ozone layers causes more UV rays to reach the earth’s surface and affect crop growth as well as cause health problems like skin cancer. Closer to the earth surface zone is a GHG called chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), which is a catalytic agent to global warming. It is interesting to state that the problem of ozone depletion is now understood and appropriate measures are being taken to protect the ozone layer from further depletion (IPCC, 2013). Scientific discovery shows that the synthetic CFC which is responsible for the ozone holes has now been replaced with a more environmental friendly substance and that takes care of the ozone depletion. Global warming and climate change however, are still of serious concern to the environment and more actions are needed to address them (Trevarthen, 2009; IPCC, 2013). IMPLICATIONS Several climatic and environmental conditions we have not experienced before have been taking place within the past few decades. For instance, the usual ‘August break’ (a three-week spell of sunny, dry weather in the month of August) that use to prevail during the rainy season in Nigeria has ceased to exist. Again, there is complete extinction of some certain plant and animal species within and around Nigerian forest ecology if keen observation is made. Also, the usual period of harmattan - a dry and dusty wind that blows from the Sahara desert (via the NE Trade) which the West Africans referred to as ‘doctor’ has changed both in intensity, severity and period of the year (Chukwu and Asiegbu, 2011). 19 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 Fig.6: Earth’s global temperature rose: land and ocean measurements 1850-2012 (NAS, 2014). Again, high temperature has been recorded as the global average surface temperature has increased as seen in Figure 6. There is a global mean temperature difference of about 0.8˚C (NAS, 2014). The oceans are not left un-affected as there is a global average sea level rise of about 20 cm. The implication is that the ocean water is warmed up which then expands to give rise to higher level of water. Some rivers/streams in Nigeria and elsewhere are drying up e.g. Lake Chad which used to be a large body of water is now shrinking down to a small lake, the Aral Sea in Russia has reduced a lot between 1960 and 1997 (Table 2), pattern of rainfall has changed tremendously (Audu et al., 2012; Ayoade, 1973; Ogolo and Falodum, 2007). While there is desert encroachment in the northern part of Nigeria, there are devastating gully erosions and floods in the south. Incessant production of GHGs, depletion of the ozonosphere with fully-halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) produced by man-made activities and others are still going on (Chukwu, 2008). It can be seen in Figure 7 that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been on the increase starting from the era of the industrial revolution and it is assuming an unprecedented dimension. 20 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 Fig. 7: Concentration of carbon dioxide and CFC11 (Houghton et al., 1990). Note the rapid increase of CO2 by 1950 and emergence of CFC after 1940 (Houghton et al., 1990). The situation develops into astronomical increases as the days go by. It is also pertinent to note that the CFCs were not present in the atmosphere by 1940 (Figure 7) yet its rapid and increasing concentration is alarming (Houghton et al., 1990). There have been cases of severe and catastrophic weather conditions across the West African sub-region and the globe (Table 2) as a whole. Table 2 gives the statistics of Lake Aral in former U.S.S.R. which has changed a lot due to climate change and global warming (de Blij et al., 1997). Other places are, however, not exempted from global warming implications. The super typhoon in the Philippines which claimed over 10,000 lives and destroyed many infrastructures, the terrible fire incident in Australia, several tsunamis, hurricanes, typhoons and tornadoes in the United States of America, radioactive discharges from nuclear plant turbines in Japan are typical examples. Another serious implication is the effect on agriculture, food production and, of course, health. The grave food shortage in Somalia and neighboring countries is as a result of unpredictable weather conditions for food production in the region which has resulted into serious malnutrition of the populace and other harsh conditions (Table 3). Table 2: Shrinking Aral Sea (in Russia) statistics Year Depth (metres) Area (km2) Volume (km3) 1960 53 (175 ft) 67,340 (26,000 mi2) 1109 (266 mi3) 2 1997 37 (120 ft) 36,260 (14,000 mi ) 334 (80 mi3) Source: de Blij et al., 1997 21 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 Table 3: Some global weather-related disasters in 2007 (source: Awake Magazine, 2008). S/N Location/country Event/effect 1 Bangladesh Flooding affecting 8.5m people and killed over 300 people and 1.25m farm animals. About 1.5 million homes destroyed. 2 Bolivia More than 350,000 were affected by flooding and 25,000 people were displaced. 3 Britain More than 350,000 people affected by the worst flooding in over 60 years. England and Wales witnessed the wettest May-July since 1766. 4 Dominican Republic Prolonged heavy rainfall caused floods and landslides, displacing 65,000 people. 5 India Floods affected 30,000,000 people. 6 Lesotho High temperatures and drought destroyed crops. 553,000 people may require food aid. 7 Madagascar Cyclone and heavy rains lashed the island displacing 33,000 people and destroying 260,000 crops. 8 Mexico Regional flooding left at least 500,000 homeless and affected more than 1,000,000 people. 9 North Korea About 960,000 were severely hit by widespread flooding, landslides and mudslides. 10 Pakistan Cyclonic rains left 377,000 people displaced and hundreds dead. 11 Sudan Torrential rains left 150,000 people without shelter. At least 500,000 received aid. 12 West Africa Floods affected 800,000 people in fourteen countries. 13 United States Fires across tinder-dry southern California forced 500,000 residents to flee their homes. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Being abreast of global warming and having been acquainted with some of the causative factors and possible consequences to the planet earth and mankind, some thought-provoking issues come up: watching the global habitat to be in grave peril portends danger to the environment and mankind and so, solution must be proffered to the prevailing problem. Something has to be done to avoid a looming catastrophe. The IPCC has cautioned that there is a limit when actions will not yield good results; hence, the time for appropriate actions is now. We begin by creating serious awareness through well-articulated campaigns and education towards sustainability of our environment. Adopting plausible scientific measures to reduce to its barest minimum the activities that could degrade our earth, accurate forecasting and well-tailored programs to tackle the issues bordering on global warming and climate change to include mandatory limits on fossil-fuel emission, sanctions to offenders, introduction and utilization of better alternative energy sources like green technology, solar energy systems, etc. To this end, the recent research initiatives by different bodies and organizations relating to this problem need be commended. Specifically, the recent effort by Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) towards projections of global warming and regional 22 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 climate change using sophisticated climate models to determine temperature trends and other climatic variables is highly commendable. IPCC meets frequently and gives periodic reports. In the same vein, the Earth System Physics (ESP) section of International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Italy is using the laws of physics; climatic data of natural phenomena that influence climate to develop regional climate models (RegCM) which could be enabled and zoomed in on specific regions of the globe and obtain fine-scale information. This is important because climates varies drastically from region to region or even the same region (ICTP, 2004; Shaw, 1994; ICTP, 2009). These research efforts should be applauded and commended, too. Other scientists and researchers should be encouraged to apply their expertise towards ameliorating hardship of mankind occasioned by global warming through resultoriented researches. The existence and issue of global warming have been scientifically established as real. The earth is a system which requires a certain measure of stability. When, in one way or the other, a considerable stress is applied on it by a number of factors like climate change, increasing temperature trend, environmental abuse, ozone holes, etc, its stability may be affected and as such the overall stable ecosystems may be disorganized, thus resulting into the serious upheavals mankind experiences this day. Most of the causes that bring about global warming and climate change are man-made. For instance, a closer look at Fig.4 shows that the production of CFC whose emissions destroy the ozone-layered shield of the stratosphere allow the lethal UV radiation to fall on the earth’s surface penetrating the troposphere (Figure 4). The sharp trend of the graph in Figure 7 depicts that much destruction has been inflicted on the protective cover (ozone layer) which started about sixty years ago. One thing is certain, we can reduce this rate if we are determined to do it. The same thing applies to generation of carbon dioxide, whose rate of concentration in part per million volumes in the atmosphere is very alarming. Again, typical temperature and rainfall variations for many years up to present can be shown. This means that a lot of data can be acquired which, when incorporated with the laws of physics, and the natural phenomena that influence climate; scientists could be able to evolve reliable regional and local climate models for forecasting and prediction. This is exactly what is happening at ICTP, Italy and other places (ICTP, 2009). Table 3 presents weather-related records in 2007 alone world over. Between 2007 and now more climatic/weather disasters of much greater magnitude had taken place which suggests that greater debasement had been inflicted on the Earth within this short period. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2013) proclaimed the year 2012 as the worst flood year since 1850 when climatic record-keeping started and this was the year Nigeria experienced the heaviest floods and erosions ever in many states including Bauchi, Benue and Kano states (The Nation, 2012). More devastating weather reports keep coming in daily from China, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Nigeria, India, Japan, Philippines and several other places. It was predicted that 1.5 million people may be displaced by flooding in coastal areas as the Atlantic Ocean has been swallowing portions of the Bar Beach at a rate of 16 feet per year. Another suggestion for a way forward is for scientists and researchers to factor adaptive capacity into ecological modeling under climate change and global warming. If the earth has changed so much to be regarded as a new body i.e. a ‘new earth’, then new models to match the ‘new earth system’ have to be evolved, this is where consistent and worth-while researches and studies come into play in all parts of the world. How will the climate change in future? This is another interesting question that needs an answer and some workers have suggested some answers using the models in Figure 8. 23 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 Fig. 8: Projected global average surface temperature as the years go by (source: IPCC, 2013). Figure 8 shows the modeled projected Earth’s climate system in future years (up to the year 2100) by scientists. The amount and rate of warming expected for the 21st century depends on the total amount of GHGs man would emit. If man should adopt the models that project temperature increases: RCP2.6 (in red color) represents a ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario in which the earth shall be endangered the more but if a serious and aggressive emission reduction falling to near zero from now on is vigorously pursued RCP8.5 (in blue color), the earth will be safe and could return back to its natural form with time. The next (black color) represents the historical past warming between 1986 and 2005 (Inter-governmental Panels on Climate Change, IPCC, 2013). The major problems in this regard are three. First, to determine how much CO 2 that could be produced through human activity since this depends on some factors like global economy, the rate of production and consumption of energy in the future? Secondly, how complex the climate feedbacks work since there is a range of possible outcomes. Again, natural variability can modulate the effects of an underlying trend temperature. All these problems taken together all model projections indicate that the Earth will continue to warm considerably more over within the next few decades to centuries. If there were no technological and policy changes to reduce emission trends, then further warming of 2.6-4.8oC in addition to that which has already occurred would definitely be expected within the 21 st century, according to the IPCC (2013). CONCLUSION Having outlined the causes and impending consequences of global warming of the Earth, it is very necessary for man to reduce very drastically those activities that can escalate and aggravate it. To achieve this, the root causes of the earth’s problems which include human greed, self-interest, ignorance, inept government, illiteracy, poverty and apathy should be reduced. The earth’s life-sustaining environment is being gradually degraded by pollution, deforestation, urbanization, large-scale combustion, the extinction of flora and fauna species, to mention but a few factors. The activities that are inimical to global warming should be stopped or minimized. In the light of climatic models and predictions, some certain measures should be taken through good policy-making and legal framework. One other important fact that should not be neglected in this global warming matter is illiteracy. For the developing nations, the level of illiteracy, poverty and ignorance is very high and has contributed immensely to this sordid nature of the global habitat. Governments should step up their efforts to fight these social malaises. Mandatory limits on fossil-fuel emissions, penalties for offenders, introduction and involvement of more environmental friendly technologies such as solar energy and green technology should be aggressively pursued. When these anti-environmental measures are checked and controlled, the rate of global warming and climate change will reduce, at least to a much lower and tolerable level. The IPCC has cautioned that there is an extent the earth would be degraded to no remedy. The fight against illiteracy and poverty should be intensified, more especially, in the third-world nations. Finally, global warming, climate, its variations or 24 Chukwu …. Int. J. Innovative Environ. Studies Res. 2 (4):14-26, 2014 changes are closely linked to health, the growth of crops, economy and to total well-being. Therefore, predictions or forecasts of short-term climate changes promise substantial benefits. Recognizing this potential, a well-defined and coordinated program in climate-related researches, monitoring, assessment of effects and information utilization need to be vigorously implemented. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT My acknowledgement goes to the management of Covenant University, Ota for inviting me as a Keynote Speaker on the topic at their International Biotechnology Symposium (IBS) held between 8th and 12th June, 2014. Also, Dr. Joshua B. Owolabi is highly appreciated. REFERENCES Adedeji, O., Okocha, R. and Olufemi, O. (2014). Global Climate Change. Journal of Geosciences and Environmental Protection (JGEP), 2: 114-122. DOI: 10.4236/gep.2014.22017. Akhihiero, T.E. and Odu, G.O. (2014). Environmental impact of climate and renewable energy options for sustainable development. International Journal of Innovative Environmental Studies Research (IJIESR), 2(1): 63-65. Amigun, J.O., Adelusi, A.O. and Ako, B.D. (2012). The application of integrated geophysical methods in oil sand exploration in Agbabu area of Southwestern Nigeria. International Research Journal of Geology and Mining (IRJGM), 2(9): 243-253. Audu, H.O., Ekanem, E.M., Chukwu, G.U., Madu, T.U. and Audu, E.B. (2012). 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