View - TA Futures

TA FUTURES SDN BHD
(340271-W)
A member of the TA group
BMD FCPO FUTURES DAILY COMMENTARY – 29th December, 2014 (Monday)
32nd Floor, Menara TA One, 22 Jalan P . Ramlee, 50250 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
For comments and enquiries, please contact us at Tel: +603-2072-4832, Toll Free : 1-800-88-1506
Fax: +603-2072-5001,Website : www.tafutures.com.my
Settlement
Month
Open
High
Open Interest
Low
Volume
Price (MYR)
Changes
Lots
Changes
Jan-15
2205
2250
2202
2250
33
288
4017
-282
Feb-15
2201
2253
2200
2252
34
1685
18596
-230
Mar-15
2201
2252
2200
2250
33
18845
43885
568
Apr-15
2203
2250
2200
2249
32
4448
12713
108
May-15
2204
2246
2199
2246
31
2761
22908
-762
Jun-15
2197
2239
2191
2239
30
Total
CBOT Soyoil Mar' 15 (USD per pound)
32.16
32.84
32.15
32.59
0.53
NYMEX Crude Oil Feb'15 (USD per barrel)
55.86
56.59
54.51
54.73
-1.11
DCE Palm Oil January' 15 (RMB per tonne)
4,938.00
4,956.00
4,926.00
4,932.00
0.00
3.50
3.50
3.48
3.49
-0.01
1028'4
1048'4
1028'4
Malaysian Ringgit Spot (MYR/USD)
CBOT Soybean Jan’15 (US Cents per lb)
EU PALMOIL RBD dlrs tonne for Feb'15/Mar'15 (USD per tonne fob)
1047'4
18'6
652.50
-2.50
1206
7253
290
32,884
175,853
-297
Price differential between CBOT
Soybean Oil and BMD Futures
CPO
$73.93
Source : Bloomberg
Dec'14
Jan'15
Feb'15
Mar'15
2,217.50
2225.00
2,218.50
2218.50
CPO Physical Price as per MPOB (Local Delivery), - 24 December 2014
Source : MPOB
Estimated Export Volume
ITS (Tonnes)
SGS (Tonnes)
PERIODS
Oct '14
Nov '14
Dec '14
Changes
Oct '14
Nov '14
Dec '14
Changes
1 to 10
395,532
400,614
407,425
1.70%
395,940
395,249
395,929
0.20%
1 to 15
626,482
598,269
615,805
2.93%
621,145
605,624
618,314
2.10%
1 to 20
894,697
837,659
911,595
8.80%
884,628
843,707
906,594
7.50%
1 to 25
1,135,252
1,102,724
1,077,140
-2.30%
1,136,943
1,098,870
1,083,151
-1.40%
Full month
1,468,105
1,324,124
1,463,982
1,310,509
Source : Reuters
MPOB (tonne)
Jun'14
July'14
August'14
Sept '14
Oct '14
Nov '14
Changes
Production
1,569,788
1,665,661
2,031,754
1,896,899
1,892,996
1,750,567
-7.52%
Export
1,481,262
1,443,560
1,437,452
1,628,103
1,611,459
1,512,951
-6.11%
End stock
1,656,736
1,684,732
2,053,175
2,090,001
2,166,525
2,278,369
5.16%
Source : MPOB
Fundamental View:




Severe monsoon flooding in Malaysia that has forced more than a hundred thousand people to evacuate,
is likely to cause a bigger-than-expected disruption to crude palm oil production in the world's No.2
producer, planters and traders said.
Output across Pahang, Johor and Malacca are estimated drop 36 percent between Dec 1 and 20 from a
month earlier due to the heavy rains take its toll on palm's seasonally weaker cycle.
Malaysian palm oil futures hit their highest in over a month on Friday, notching their biggest weekly gain
in eight weeks as fears of floods disrupting supplies in the world's second-largest producer outweighed
earlier losses.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed higher on Friday on light technical buying and tight
nearby U.S. soymeal supplies, traders said.
Source: Reuters
For Internal Circulation Only
Recirculation of this report or any part thereof to any third party/ies without the written consent of TA Futures is expressly prohibited. TA Futures does not warrant the
accuracy or the completeness of the information contained herein. Information is believed to be reliable and opinions stated here are subject to change. TA Futures shall
not be liable for any loss suffered by reliance placed on this commentary.
TA FUTURES SDN BHD
(340271-W)
A member of the TA group
BMD FCPO FUTURES DAILY COMMENTARY – 29th December, 2014 (Monday)
32nd Floor, Menara TA One, 22 Jalan P . Ramlee, 50250 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
For comments and enquiries, please contact us at Tel: +603-2072-4832, Toll Free : 1-800-88-1506
Fax: +603-2072-5001,Website : www.tafutures.com.my
ROLLING THIRD-MONTH CPO FUTURES CONTRACT - DAILY CANDLESTICK CHART
KO3 (2,201.00, 2,252.00, 2,200.00, 2,250.00, +41.0000), Parabolic SAR (2,116.02)
2500
2500
2450
2450
2400
2400
2350
2350
2300
2300
2250
2250
2200
2200
2150
2150
2100
2100
2050
2050
2000
2000
1950
1950
1900
1900
1850
1850
Stochastic Oscillator (96.4286)
50
50
0
0
Relative Strength Index (60.5819)
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
MACD (-1.86410)
8
0
0
-50
-50
15
22
29
7
October
13
20
27
3
10
November
17
24
1
8
December
15
22
29
5
2015
TECHNICAL VIEW
Third month benchmark March CPO Futures Contract opened at RM 2,201, it traded to a high at RM 2,252 and traded to
low at RM 2,200. CPO Futures closed at RM 2,250, up 33 points with total volume traded of 32,884 lots. An engulfing
white candlestick had traded beyond the Bollinger band and this may continue until it tested the 200-SMA line. RSi and
stochastic is pointing upwards and with possible strong upwards trading in the coming days. Immediate resistance is at
RM2, 183, RM 2,207 and RM 2,233. Immediate support is at RM 2,130, and RM 2,080.
TRADING VIEW
SHORT-TERM
MEDIUM-TERM
:
:
Target upside towards RM 2,280 with stop-loss below RM 2,200.
Target upside towards RM 2,320, with stop-loss below RM 2,175.
For Internal Circulation Only
Recirculation of this report or any part thereof to any third party/ies without the written consent of TA Futures is expressly prohibited. TA Futures does not warrant the
accuracy or the completeness of the information contained herein. Information is believed to be reliable and opinions stated here are subject to change. TA Futures shall
not be liable for any loss suffered by reliance placed on this commentary.