Benson Quinn Commodities Inc. Minneapolis, MN January - e-ADM

Benson Quinn Commodities Inc.
Minneapolis, MN
Wheat
January 9, 2015
Settlements:
MWH5
MWK5
MWN5
Close
603 ¼
609 ¾
616 ½
Change
-5 ¼
-5 ½
-5 ¾
High
614
619
625 ¾
Low
600 ¾
607 ¼
614 ¼
KWH5
KWK5
KWN5
600 ½
605 ¼
609 ¼
-7 ¼
-7
-6 ¼
612 ½
616 ½
619
598
602 ½
606 ¼
WH5
WK5
563 ¾
567 ¾
-3 ¼
-4 ¼
574
578 ½
561 ¾
565 ¾
Review:
Wheat futures had a defensive tone overnight before
trying to recover early in the session on light short covering
ahead of the weekend. The borderline oversold nature of the
wheat markets and firmer trade in corn and soybeans were
primary factors in markets that lacked fresh inputs. Credit
position squaring ahead of the report for rather subdued
volume in the row crop markets. Volume in the wheat
markets was ok as those looking to cover shorts found a few
voids on the offer side. Funds were estimated net sellers of
1,000 Chicago wheat contracts. I doubt any of the early
buying was new capital. It didn’t appear the commitment to
add length was ever very strong. The weaker tone in the US
dollar may be viewed as a supportive input. I doubt it had
much influence. Once the ebbs and flows of pre-weekend
short covering ran its course, the weaker tone of the last few
sessions. The KC market took on water quickly with new
lows late in the session. Chicago and Mpls took direction
from this selling with help from index fund selling in the
Chicago market. Index fund selling in Chicago was probably
about 4,000 contracts on the close. Despite all three
markets finding their way into oversold conditions, the
technical structure behind the market looks absolutely awful.
One can always give some credit for lower trade to a dim
view towards US exports as the paradigm behind that aspect
of the market simply hasn’t changed much. However,
weaker futures have helped basis levels try to stabilize.
There is talk of additional Chinese demand for US spring
wheat, which I don’t doubt. The cash market isn’t trading as
if there has been a slew of spring wheat business done at this
point.
The focus on Monday’s report will be on SRW acreage.
The trade is looking for something in the neighborhood of 8
m acres, which would be down about 500,000 from the prior
year. I am looking for the estimate to come in below that
market. I am also looking for this data to be reflected
immediately in the inter-market spreads.
The COT report, including options, as of Jan 6th, shows
funds were active sellers of Chicago and KC wheat, while
adding length in Mpls. The fund positions in all three
markets are manageable, but don’t fit the current technical
structure of the market very well at all. Without some
fundamental support, I expect the funds to stay on the sell
side.
Brian Henry
Volume/Open Interest (# of Contracts):
Volume
Open Interest
MW
7,478
70,302
KW
21,757
132,990
W
74,936
375,128
Net Change
+626
+1,367
-1,758
Technicals:
MWH5
KWH5
WH5
Support
606
565 ¼
520 ¾
Resist
680 ½
675
632
USDA Weekly Export Data:
Date
Inspections (MT)
1/01
Wheat Sales (MT)
1/01
HRS (MT)
1/01
HRW (MT)
1/01
SRW (MT)
1/01
Domestic Rail Market:
HRS: Mar
Protein
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
Basis
Change
-+5/--
+100/+150
+125/+184
---/+9
+320/+400
-5/--
Change
---
HRS Daily Receipts
Cars
102
50-Day MA
609 ½
622 ¾
579
Trade Est.
275-400
Actual
352,829
151,000
123,500
-29,300
7,100
200-350
N/A
N/A
N/A
HRW: Mar
+50/+75
+85/+100
HRS PNW
Month
Basis
Jan
+250/H
Feb
+260/H
20-Day MA
630 ¼
640 ¾
607 ¼
Protein
Ords.
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
+85/+95
+85/+95
+85/+95
+85/+95
+80/+90
Change
+5
+5
+5
+5
--
HRW Gulf
Month
Basis
Jan
+112/H
Feb
+115/H
Change
---
Trains
Basis
1
Deliverable Stocks (Thou Bus):
Jan 2nd
Week Ago
Del
Total
Del
Total
Chicago
8,290
8,590
8,459
8,759
Toledo
18,758
19,078
18,823
19,143
Year Ago
Del
Total
10,222
10,222
24,320 24,522
Hutch
KC
Salina
Wichita
13,888
6,963
10,192
16,642
13,888
6,966
10,772
17,224
14,824
6,963
10,134
17,511
14,824
6,963
10,714
17,912
20,595
10,687
15,271
22,081
20,595
10,853
15,365
22,806
Mpls.
Duluth
5,598
14,834
5,598
15,987
5,518
14,283
5,518
15,436
3,970
15,858
3,970
17,102
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is
suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Information contained herein is believed reliable. Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. does not guarantee
that such information is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed reflect judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice.
BQCI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company An Introducing Broker for ADMIS
701 South 4th Avenue, Suite 800, Minneapolis, MN 55415, 1-800-438-7070