7 - Daily Livestock Report

Transcription

7 - Daily Livestock Report
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Vol. 13, No. 3 / January 7, 2015
Analysts polled ahead of the release of the USDA WASDE report
(Jan 12) expect only minor revisions to the supply/demand tables for major grain crops (see aƩached table reflecƟng opinions of 26 analysts surveyed). Normally USDA does not make significant revisions to the producon numbers but there have been excep ons in the past. Analysts expect
corn yields to remain unchanged at 173.4 bushels per acre but there is the
poten al for the figure to be lowered given the slow pace of harvest towards the end of the season. USDA did not make any changes to the harvested acres number in their December report but some market par cipants con nue to debate whether we could see a downward revision to
this number in the January es mates. The consensus es mate for total
corn produc on in 2014 is 14.342 billion pounds, 417 million pounds (+3%)
compared to a year ago. The figure is slightly lower than es mates a couple
of months ago but it s ll represents an all me record produc on level,
surpassing the record output last year. There was a lot of talk in 2011 and
2012 than maybe, just maybe, the trend in corn yields had changed and
that the long term trend in corn output was unsustainable. Corn yields hit a
record level in 2009 at 165 bushels per acre but then declined in each of the
next three years, with yields in 2012 dropping to 123 bushels per acre.
Following this year’s harvest, it appears that corn yields once again have
returned to trend. In hindsight, the drought of 2012 bears plenty of resemblance to similar events in the 1980s and 1990s. Weather pa erns have
become more extreme and we have no aspira ons to become either grain
or weather analysts. The issue that the market is grappling with, and that
livestock producers are quite interested in, is the produc on poten al for
corn given a return of yields to trend and plan ngs that are significantly
larger than what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s.
With the supply side of the ma er largely resolved, market parƟcipants will conƟnue to focus on demand issues impacƟng the corn market. The grain stocks survey will help answer some ques ons regarding the
pace of livestock feeding during the first three months of the marke ng
year and what that implies for the feed and residual component in the balance table. In its last report USDA pegged feed and residual for the
2014/15 marke ng year at 5.375 billion bushels, 4.7% ahead of year ago
levels. Poultry and hog numbers are expected to increase as evidenced by a
larger hatching flock and the 3% jump in the hog breeding numbers. Producers also are feeding ca le, hogs and broilers to heavier weights, which
implies larger feed u liza on rates. A smaller than expected grain stocks
number (some analysts think it may be under 11 billion bushels) could
prompt USDA to further increase its feed es mate for the year. They may
increase it anyways given the gains in livestock inventories and the current
heavy weight trends. Some of the increases in feed use may be offset, to
some extent, by possible reduc ons in ethanol and exports, especially given
the sharp drop in crude oil and the surge in the US$. Grain futures have
rallied since early fall. It remains to be seen whether this latest USDA report will provide enough informa on to sustain that rally into spring.
Analyst Pre-report Estimates of USDA WASDE Report
Source: Bloomberg
Previous USDA
2014
2013
Analyst Avg.
Range of Est.
Corn Production (bil. bu.)
Corn Yield (bu/acre)
14.342
173.4
14.171 - 14.54
171.3 - 176.5
14.407
173.4
13.925
158.8
Soybean Production (bil. bu)
Soybean Yield (bu/acre)
3.962
47.7
3.844 - 4.020
46.8 - 48.2
3.958
47.5
3.358
44
1,944
401
667
1,710 - 2,194
355 - 475
639 - 727
Production
Ending Stocks
Corn (million bu.)
Soybeans (million bu.)
Wheat (million bu.)
1,998
410
654
1,236
92
590
Previous USDA
Sep. 1, '14 Dec. 1, '13
Dec 1 Grain Stocks
Corn (billion bu.)
Soybeans (billion bu.)
Wheat (billion bu.)
Bushel/Acre
11.138
2.599
1.503
10.820 - 11.351
2.400 - 2.9100
1.400 - 1.5850
1.236
0.092
1.914
10.453
2.154
1.475
Corn Yield/Acre by Market Year
180
Yield
10 Year Avg Yield
160
140
120
100
80
60
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