Weekly Market Highlights

January 9, 2015
Global Markets Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
•
Weekly Performance
Macro
Currency
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US
EU
UK
Japan
Equity
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Hong Kong
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Singapore
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Malaysia
China
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FOMC minutes clearly took center stage as it revealed that a Fed rate hike
will unlikely take place before April. The minutes from the Fed’s previous
10-y Govt Bond
Yields
meeting showed that the FOMC “was unlikely to begin the normalization
process for at least the next couple of meetings”. Meanwhile, BOE
expectedly stayed the course at yesterday’s policy meeting, amid recent
downticks in data as well as on concerns that inflation could slip lower
following weakness in oil prices.
•
Data wise, this has not been the best of weeks as both PMI manufacturing
and services indices largely pointed to slower growth traction.
•
Markets may again keep their eyes on oil development and ECB’s bond
buying programme as ECB meeting (22-Jan) approaches. Scheduled
economic releases are less crowded but nevertheless no less important. Top
of the list will be the Fed Beige Book, US retail sales, industrial production,
Uni Michigan consumer confidence, Philly Fed, Empire manufacturing, and
CPI.
•
Back in Asia, China exports will take center stage, and setting the stage for
4Q GDP and other first tier data scheduled for the following week. We
believe China is on track to register a 7.3-7.4% economic growth for 2014 as
a whole.
Weekly MYR Performance
Forex
•
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
-1.24
GBP
-0.45
on continued signs of improvement in the US labour market. We caution
however, that disappointment in US data tonight could spur MYR on weaker
footing next week, barring any further drop in oil prices, which seem to be
1.25
AUD
USD
2.00
HKD
2.01
0.00
stabilizing circa $47-$50 level.
1.90
•
1.00
2.00
USD advanced agaisnt 8 G10s after pushing higher for 5 consecutive days to
lift the Dollar Index to its 11y high at 92.36 amid hawkish Fed outlook,
general weakness the markets coupled with jitters from Greek elections. At
2.07
JPY
-1.00
bearish view on MYR against USD, premising on the greenback holding firm
0.99
CNY
-2.00
conditions, leading it lower against 5 G10s. We currently maintain a slightly
CHF
SGD
MYR
Appreciated
straight days before pulling back. MYR weakness continue to prevail on the
back of falling oil prices and concerns over its impact on Malaysian fiscal
MYR
Depreciated
EUR
-0.62
MYR weakened 2.0% WOW to 3.5665 against USD after slipping for 4
this juncture, we stay bullish on USD as it remains the only major currency to
be suppoted by a tigther policy outlook and an improving economy. However,
3.00
we caution that latest ADP report has increased markets expectation for a
solid NFP tonight, amongst other data, and a shortfall from that expectations
is likely to trigger a moderate / strong sell-off in USD that we suspect could
be prone to downsides after reaching fresh highs.
Indicative Yields
Fixed Income
•
UST started the year on more biddish tone, with 10-year yields seen trading
lower below the psychological 2.00%. Prospects of ECB embarking on QE
and somewhat dovish FOMC minutes of December meeting provided more
clarity reinforcing Fed’s patience in raising interest rates, which is unlikely to
take place before late April. Market saw a relief rally, with regional
government bond yields easing lower. A few policymakers expressed
concerns over subdued inflation, whilst cautioning the risk of global growth
concerns may pose a threat to the US recovery. Expect UST to remain on
range-bound with renewed support following a tad more dovish FOMC
minutes.
•
On the local front, trading sentiment started on a more cautious tone tracking
weak Ringgit and declining oil prices. However sentiment turned to a more
upbeat following a healthier BTC print of 2.368x registered for the 15-year
MGS 4/30 reopening, suggesting that recent upwardly movement in bond
yields appears excessive paving the way for bargain hunting interest. Expect
Please see important disclosure at the end of the report
trading volume to garner traction as we progress along, with investors
reopening their investor books for a new fiscal/calendar year. Although bond
yields could potentially mirror some gyration on the back Ringgit performance
and oil price movement, we opine trading sentiment to turn tactical with
pocket of opportunities for buying on dips.
1
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Contents
2
Macroeconomics
Page 3
Forex
Page 4
Trading Idea
Page 5
FX Technicals
Page 6
Fixed Income
Page 7
Economic Calendar
Page 9
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review
Macroeconomics
•
6-month Macro Outlook
US
EU
UK
Japan
Australia
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
Economy
Inflation
Interest
Rate
Currency
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FOMC minutes clearly took center stage as it revealed that a Fed rate
hike will unlikely take place before April. The minutes from the Fed’s
previous meeting showed that the FOMC “was unlikely to begin the
normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings”. Policy
makers also discussed downside risks to growth, and concluded that
these are likely to be offset by an economy that “may end up showing
more momentum than expected”, spurred by a boost to spending from
lower fuel prices that “could turn out to be quite large”. On inflation, the
committee expects it to inch towards its target with improvement in the
labour market and as the impact of lower fuel prices diminishes.
•
Meanwhile, BOE expectedly stayed the course at yesterday’s policy
meeting, amid recent downticks in data as well as on concerns that
inflation could slip lower following weakness in oil prices.
•
Data wise, this has not been the best of weeks as both PMI
manufacturing and services indices largely pointed to slower growth
traction. While readings from the West turned out largely softer than
expected, those around Asia appear to be less downbeat. The string
of other data releases turned out mixed, but overall pointing to a less
sanguine global landscape that have reignited global growth concern.
Mounting growth risks in the Eurozone have intensified talks of ECB
bond buying programme in their upcoming policy meeting later in the
month.
•
Back home, November statistics turned out not as bad as feared.
Exports rebounded to increase 2.1% YOY in November, led by a
rebound in E&E exports. Trade surplus widened to a 11-month high,
but due mainly to sharply lower imports that offered some temporary
reprieve to concerns over a deficit in lieu of the sharp drop in global oil
prices. This, coupled with moderatring but still expanionsary IPI gain of
4.7% YOY in November, signaled Malaysia is on track to achieve its
5.8% growth in 2014. We would however like to caution that 2015
growth forecast could be at risk of dipping closer to 4.0% should oil
prices linger at its low.
The Week Ahead…
•
Markets may again keep their eyes on oil development and ECB’s
bond buying programme as ECB meeting (22-Jan) approaches.
Scheduled economic releases are less crowded but nevertheless no
less important. Top of the list will be the Fed Beige Book, US retail
sales, industrial production, Uni Michigan consumer confidence, Philly
Fed, Empire manufacturing, and CPI.
3
Fixed Income & Economic Research
•
Other CPI readings due from the Eurozone, Germany, France and the
UK are expected to reflect continuous softening price trend that will
reinforce deflationary/ disinflationary risks, providing ample room for
monetary policies to stay accommodative.
•
Back in Asia, China exports will take center stage, and setting the
stage for 4Q GDP and other first tier data scheduled for the following
week. We believe China is on track to register a 7.3-7.4% economic
growth for 2014 as a whole.
Weekly Market Highlights
Review and Outlook
Forex
•
MYR: MYR weakened 2.0% WOW to 3.5665 against USD after slipping for 4
straight days before pulling back. MYR weakness continue to prevail on the
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
-1.24
MYR
Depreciated
EUR
-0.62
-0.45
back of falling oil prices and concerns over its impact on Malaysian fiscal
conditions, leading it lower against 5 G10s. We currently maintain a slightly
GBP
bearish view on MYR against USD, premising on the greenback holding firm on
continued signs of improvement in the US labour market. We caution however,
CHF
MYR
Appreciated
SGD
0.99
AUD
1.25
that disappointment in US data tonight could spur MYR on weaker footing next
week, barring any further drop in oil prices, which seem to be stabilizing circa
$47-$50 level.
1.90
CNY
•
USD: USD advanced agaisnt 8 G10s after pushing higher for 5 consecutive
USD
2.00
days to lift the Dollar Index to its 11y high at 92.36 amid hawkish Fed outlook,
HKD
2.01
general weakness the markets coupled with jitters from Greek elections. At this
juncture, we stay bullish on USD as it remains the only major currency to be
2.07
JPY
suppoted by a tigther policy outlook and an improving economy. However, we
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
caution that latest ADP report has increased markets expectation for a solid
NFP tonight, amongst other data, and a shortfall from that expectations is likely
to trigger a moderate / strong sell-off in USD that we suspect could be prone to
Source: Bloomberg
downsides after reaching fresh highs.
•
USD vs the G10s (% WOW)
G10s on further pressure from rising deflationary concerns that firmed up QE
bets, on top of jitters approaching the Greek snap polls on 25 Jan. EURUSD
GBP
-3.18
-2.82
-2.57
-2.46
SEK
EUR
Eurozone reports next week. EUR-negativity from firm QE expectations and
Greek jitters would likely to lead EUR lower ahead of ECB meeting in the week
after. Even if EURUSD rebounds, we reckon that it would likely remain capped
below 1.2010.
NOK
CAD
-0.73
AUD
NZD
-3.00
The pair can forget about much upsides coming from data amid a lack of major
CHF
JPY
-4.00
remains anything but bullish, with slim chance of a rebound on USD weakness.
USD
Depreciated
DKK
-2.41
-2.29
-1.86
USD
Appreciated
-2.00
EUR: EUR slumped 2.57% WOW to 1.1793 against USD and fell against 8
-1.00
0.07
0.33
0.00
•
GBP: GBP fell for 5 consecutive days to close lower against all G10s and
plunged 3.18% WOW to 1.5090 against USD, impacted by successvie
downticks in UK data ahead of BOE policy decision. Markets’ hawkish
1.00
expectations on BOE has slipped into a grey area and the resulting downside
impact on GBP is rather pronounced, evident in an absence of bids even as
other European majors were sold. We maintain a slight bearish view on
Source: Bloomberg
GBPUSD, with UK CPI downsides to likely provide further tinge of weakness
but note a slim chance of rebound only on USD weakness. We expect
rebounds to be curbed by 1.5250 level, below which we would remain bearish.
USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW)
-2.26
-2.00
MYR
-1.12
TWD
-0.99
-0.77
USD
Appreciated
advanced a slight 0.07% WOW against USD at 119.33 after returning much
USD
Depreciated
gains yesterday. We expect markets to be cheered to a certain extent by signs
of stall in oil price decline and anticipation of speculated ECB announcement
PHP
on QE in the week after, leading to a softer refuge demand. Unless USD
weakens significantly, we would expect JPY underperforming the greenback
-0.27 KRW
-0.10 CNY
HKD
next week.
0.01
-1.00
0.00
•
0.24
AUD: AUD rallied on the rebound in equities and commodities to close higher
against 7 G10s and narrow early losses against USD to 0.73% WOW at
1.09
INR
-2.00
JPY: JPY maintained a bullish tone, strengthening against 9 G10s on the back
of heightened risk aversion from declines in equities and commodities. JPY
SGD
THB
-3.00
•
IDR
1.00
0.8123. In response to recent protracted weakness in AUDUSD, we reckon
that bidders would continue to take opportunity of rebound in equities and
2.00
commodities to lift the pair higher. We expect extended rebound, if any, to
likely stall circa 0.8238. Despite our slight bullish view, we note that AUDUSD
remains prone to downsides if USD rallies on solid US data tonight, or if
Source: Bloomberg
Chinese exports and Australian employment reports disappoints.
•
SGD: SGD advanced against 7 G10s once fund inflow started moving again in
tandem with rebound in equities, but prevailing USD strength continue to cap
SGD to decline 1.0% WOW to 1.3368. We expect SGD to remain slightly bid
with inflow likely to strengthen following firmer risk appetite in the market, but
caution that downsides in Singapore data next week could overturn early gains.
4
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Technical Analysis:
Currency
Current price
14-day RSI
Support - Resistance
EURUSD
1.1802
22
1.1737
GBPUSD
1.5092
24
1.5054
USDJPY
119.62
53
USDCNY
6.2107
58
USDSGD
1.3369
AUDUSD
0.8134
NZDUSD
Moving Averages
Call
30 Days
100 Days
200 Days
1.2521
1.1737
1.2521
1.2214
Negative
1.5877
1.5054
1.5877
1.5537
Negative
117.43
121.54
117.4300
121.5400
119.4600
Positive
6.1912
6.2304
6.1912
6.2304
6.1962
Positive
68
1.3047
1.3429
1.3047
1.3429
1.3205
Positive
39
0.8054
0.8216
0.8054
0.8216
0.8206
Negative
0.7828
55
0.7676
0.7847
0.7676
0.7847
0.7763
Negative
USDMYR
3.5573
72
3.4459
3.5721
3.4459
3.5721
3.4949
Positive
EURMYR
4.1984
37
4.1827
4.3490
4.1827
4.3490
4.2744
Neutral
GBPMYR
5.3687
41
5.3723
5.4990
5.3723
5.4990
5.4343
Neutral
JPYMYR
2.9739
59
2.8645
3.0103
2.8645
3.0103
2.9258
Positive
CHFMYR
3.4954
39
3.4782
3.6177
3.4782
3.6177
3.5549
Positive
SGDMYR
2.6608
59
2.6275
2.6809
2.6275
2.6809
2.6469
Positive
AUDMYR
2.8936
59
2.8176
2.9019
2.8176
2.9019
2.8722
Neutral
NZDMYR
2.7848
69
2.6652
2.7837
2.6652
2.7837
2.7130
Neutral
Trader’s Comment:
A one way ticket start for the New Year. USD made gains against almost all asset classes as hot and fast money
accounts boarded on the USD bull train which was left off towards Christmas holidays last year. With that being said,
USD in general will start to consolidate ahead of NFP data due later.
USDJPY hit high of 119.97 and is consolidating around 119.50. EURUSD hit lows of 1.1754 and is consolidating
around 1.1800. Oil hit 47.00 now slightly higher. The story is the same in most pairs as USD index touched 92.57 a
high unseen since for a few years.
All eyes on NFP as market expects at least a mid 200k print which in point would signal that the US recovery is
ongoing strongly and that the FED might accelerate their plans to raise rates sooner rather than later probably
around Q2. That being said, if we do get a disappointing print, USD might give up gains gained for the past 5 trading
sessions. Although ultimately we should see a grind higher for USD as the inevitability of rising rates amidst this USD
strength environment will prevail eventually.
Locally, the MYR hit multi year lows of 3.5820 before strengthening back to 3.5550 levels at time of writing in the
consolidating phase while waiting for NFP and slight recovery from crude oil. November trade balance pushed the
MYR higher from the low and ultimately giving breathing space for MYR to trade mildly stronger. The start of year
search for higher yields also help MYR regain some strength as fund managers reallocate safe haven assets into
higher beta pairs like the MYR. Given the fast pace of MYR weakening the past 2 months, trader feels we should be
trading in a broad range of 3.4900-3.5900 in the upcoming weeks with NFP results and yield hungry flows to dictate
movement amidst low liquidity environment.
5
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
FX Technical Charts
USDMYR
EURMYR
Resistance: 3.5721
Resistance: 4.3490
Support: 3.4459
Support: 4.1827
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
GBPMYR
JPYMYR
Resistance: 5.4990
Support: 5.3723
Resistance: 3.0103
Support: 2.8645
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
AUDMYR
SGDMYR
Resistance: 2.6809
Support: 2.6275
Resistance: 2.9019
Support: 2.8176
Source: Bloomberg
6
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review & Outlook
Fixed Income
%
•
Benchmark MGS Yields
trading lower below the psychological 2.00%. Prospects of ECB
embarking on QE and somewhat dovish FOMC minutes of December
meeting provided more clarity reinforcing Fed’s patience in raising
interest rates, which is unlikely to take place before late April. Market
saw a relief rally, with regional government bond yields easing lower.
3Y MGS
5Y MGS
10Y MGS
5.2
UST started the year on more biddish tone, with 10-year yields seen
4.7
4.2
A few policymakers expressed concerns over subdued inflation,
3.7
whilst cautioning the risk of global growth concerns may pose a
threat to the US recovery. Expect UST to remain on range-bound
with renewed support following a tad more dovish FOMC
minutes.
3.2
2.7
bps
MGS Yield Spread
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jan-08
2.2
•
3/10Y
200
3/5Y
150
excessive paving the way for bargain hunting interest. Tender results
saw a low, average and high of 4.660%, 4.697% and 4.714%
respectively. Post tender, we saw the newly reopened MGS 4/30
rallying to 4.51-4.52% at time of writing, a significant yield
compression of circa 19-20 bps from previous traded levels. Expect
trading volume to garner traction as we progress along, with investors
reopening their investor books for a new fiscal/calendar year.
100
50
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
0
-50
On the local front, trading sentiment started on a more cautious tone
tracking weak Ringgit and declining oil prices. However sentiment
turned more upbeat following a healthier BTC print registered for the
15-year MGS 4/30 reopening. The government bond auction which
marks the 1st bond tender for 2015, printed a healthy BTC of 2.368x
suggesting that recent upwardly movement in bond yields appears
Although bond yields could potentially mirror some gyration on the
back of Ringgit performance and oil price movement, we opine
trading sentiment to turn tactical with pocket of opportunities for
buying on dips.
%
•
MYR IRS Curve
6.0
3Y IRS
5Y IRS
7Y IRS
5.5
5.0
4.5
Capital ‘15 saw good amount of RM50m done, with levels ended
tighter from previous close. Celcom ’19 meanwhile saw RM30m
worth of trades done, with level inching higher to close at 4.50%.
Other notable trades include a slew of Konsortium ProHawk
bonds maturing 2019-2026 with combined volume of RM75m
crossed. Meanwhile longer-dated DRB Hicom perpetuals seen
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
2.0
Jan-08
On the PDS front, trading volume was somewhat thinner but
buying interest seen emerging across selective credits. As of
Thursday’s close, some notable trades seen emerging. Danga
traded at 7.49% with RM15m changing hands.
Rating Actions
Issuer
PDS Description
United Growth Berhad’s Islamic
MTN Programme
Islamic MTN Programme up to RM2.2 billion (2012/2042).
Pengurusan Air SPV Berhad’s
(PASB)
RM20 billion Sukuk, comprising an Islamic MTN
Programme (2009/2039) and an Islamic CP Programme
(2009/2016).
RM2.0 billion Islamic Medium-Term Notes Sukuk
Musharakah (2014/2029)
Bumitama Agri Ltd
Rating/Outlook
Action
AA2/Stable
Affirmed
AAA/P1 (Stable)
Affirmed
AA3 (Stable)
Affirmed
Source: MARC, RAM
Economic Calendar Release Date
Date
7
Country
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Event
Reporting
Survey
Prior
Revised
Weekly Market Highlights
Period
01/21
MY
CPI YOY
US
NFIB small business optimism
IDB/TIPP economic optimism
01/22
01/13
--
3.0%
--
Jan 15
--
$116.0b
--
Dec
97.8
98.1
--
Jan
48.3
48.4
--
MBA mortgage applications
Jan 9
--
11.1%
--
Advance retail sales MOM
Dec
0.1%
0.7%
--
Import price index MOM
Dec
-2.9%
-1.5%
--
Business inventories
Nov
0.2%
0.2%
--
Foreign reserves
01/14
01/15
Fed Beige Book
Empire manufacturing
Jan
5.00
-3.58
--
PPI final demand MOM
Dec
-0.4%
-0.2%
--
Jan 10
--
294K
--
Initial jobless claims
01/16
Philly Fed biz outlook
Jan
20.0
24.5
--
CPI MOM
Dec
-0.4%
-0.3%
--
Industrial production MOM
Dec
0.0%
1.3%
--
Jan P
94.1
93.6
--
University of Michigan consumer confidence
01/20
NAHB housing market index
Jan
--
57
--
01/21
MBA mortgage applications
Jan 16
--
--
--
01/22
01/23
Housing starts MOM
Dec
--
-1.6%
--
Initial jobless claims
Jan 17
--
--
--
Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
Jan
--
8
--
Chicago Fed national activity index
Dec
--
0.73
--
Jan P
--
53.9
--
Existing home sales MOM
Dec
--
-6.1%
--
Leading index
Dec
--
0.6%
--
Industrial production MOM
Nov
0.3%
0.1%
--
01/15
Trade balance
Nov
--
19.4b
--
01/16
CPI MOM
Dec
-0.2%
-0.2%
--
01/19
Current account SA
Nov
--
20.5b
--
Construction outpuit MOM
Nov
--
1.3%
--
01/20
ZEW survey expectations
Jan
--
31.8
--
01/22
Consumer confidence
Jan A
--
--
--
ECB main refinancing rate
Jan 22
--
0.050%
--
01/23
Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI
Jan P
--
50.6
--
Markit Eurozone services PMI
Jan P
--
51.6
--
GDP YOY
2014
1.5%
0.1%
--
01/16
CPI MOM
Dec F
0.0%
0.0%
--
01/20
ZEW survey expectations
Jan
--
34.9
--
Markit US manufacturing PMI
01/14
01/15
EU
Germany
01/23
01/14
Markit services PMI
France
01/23
01/13
Italy
01/22
01/12
01/13
8
Dec
UK
CPI MOM
Jan P
--
52.1
--
Dec
0.1%
-0.2%
--
Markit manufacturing PMI
Jan P
--
47.5
--
Markit services PMI
Jan P
--
50.6
--
Industrial production MOM
Nov
0.1%
-0.1%
--
Retail sales MOM
Nov
--
0.0%
--
Lloyds employment confidence
Dec
--
1
--
BRC sales like-for-like YOY
Dec
--
0.9%
--
CPI MOM
Dec
0.2%
-0.3%
--
RPI MOM
Dec
0.2%
-0.2%
--
PPI output MOM
Dec
-0.2%
0.2%
--
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
01/15
RICS house price balance
Dec
10%
13%
01/19
Rightmove houseprices YOY
Jan
--
7.0%
--
CBI total orders Jan
Jan
--
5
--
Jobless claism change
Dec
--
-26.9k
--
ILO unemployment rate 3months
Nov
--
6.0%
--
01/21
--
BOE minutes
01/22
PSNCR
Dec
--
6.7b
--
01/23
Retail sales incl. auto MOM
Dec
--
1.6%
--
CBI reported sales
Jan
--
61
--
BOP current account balance
Nov
¥136.4b
¥833.4b
¥833.4b
Eco Watchers Survey Current
Dec
--
41.5
--
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
Dec
--
44.0
--
Dec P
--
36.6%
--
Dec
-0.3%
-0.2%
--
01/13
Japan
01/14
Machine tool orders YOY
01/15
PPI MOM
Machine orders YOY
Nov
-6.3%
-4.9%
--
01/16
Tertiary industry index MOM
Nov
0.2%
-0.2%
--
01/19
Industrial production YOY
Nov F
--
-3.8%
--
Dec
--
37.7
--
Consumer confidence index
Nationwide dept sales YOY
Dec
--
-1.0%
--
01/20
Convenience store sales YOY
Dec
--
-1.7%
--
01/21
All industry activity index MOM
Nov
--
-0.1%
--
Supermarket sales YOY
Dec
--
-0.7%
--
Leading index
Nov F
--
--
--
Machine tool orders YOY
Dec F
--
--
--
Machine tool orders YOY
Dec F
--
--
--
BOJ monetary base target
Jan 21
--
¥80T
--
BOJ monetary policy statement
01/24
01/13
Markit / JMMA manufacturing PMI
China
01/20
01/23
01/19
Jan P
--
52.0
--
Exports YOY
Dec
6.0%
4.7%
--
Fixed asset ex rural YTD YOY
Dec
15.7%
15.8%
--
Retail sales YOY
Dec
11.8%
11.7%
--
Industrial production YOY
Dec
7.4%
7.2%
--
GDP YOY
4Q
7.2%
7.3%
--
Jan P
--
49.6
--
HSBC manufacturing PMI
Unemployment rate
Dec
--
3.3%
--
CPI YOY
Dec
--
5.1%
--
Retail sales YOY
Nov
--
8.1%
--
01/16
Non-oil domestic exports YOY
Dec
-2.2%
1.6%
--
01/23
CPI YOY
Dec
--
-0.3%
--
CPI YOY
Jan
--
1.84%
--
Employment change
Dec
5.0k
42.7k
--
Unemployment rate
Dec
6.3%
6.3%
---
01/15
HK
Singapore
01/24
Vietnam
01/15
Australia
01/21
Westpac consumer confidence
Jan
--
-5.7%
01/22
HIA new home sales MOM
Nov
--
3.0%
--
CPI YOY
4Q
--
1.0%
--
BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI
Dec
--
55.2
--
ANZ consumer confidence MOM
Dec
--
3.9%
--
01/21
01/22
NZ
Source: Bloomberg
9
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
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Fixed Income & Economic Research