Jan 19, 2015 - Moneycontrol

ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Cotton Recap
MCX Cotton
Previous
JAN5
FEB5
MAR5
APR5
15130
15290
15460
15650
Open
High
Low
Close
15090
15250
15450
15620
15100
15260
15450
15620
14870
15070
15240
15420
14900
15080
15260
15450
Spread
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
NCDEX
Kapas
APR5
Previous
773
Open
772.5
High
773
Jan-2015
Low
761
Close
763.5
Net
Chg.
-230
-210
-200
-200
Feb-2015
-180
Net
Chg.
-9.5
%
Chg.
-1.52
-1.37
-1.29
-1.28
Volume
1404
1577
764
855
% Vol.
Chg.
13.13
97.13
9.77
206.45
OI
5156
3627
3304
1305
OI
Chg.
-269
-315
115
226
Mar-2015
-360
-180
%
Chg.
-1.23
Volume
6576
% Vol.
Chg.
50.24
OI
16730
OI
Chg.
-393
Indian Cotton
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Indian Cotton futures closed sharply lower last week on stronger Rupee amid increasing Cotton
stocks in MCX warehouses.
Raw cotton is trading at near MSP levels at most locations across India. For 2014-15, MSP for
Cotton is Rs. 3750/ 100 Kg (medium staple) and Rs. 4050/ 100 Kg (long staple)
According to USDA, Indian Cotton output in 2014/15 will be 6.64 million MT in 12.70 million
hectares. Indian Cotton exports are likely to fall to 1.02 million MT in 2014/15 vs. 2.01 million
MT during previous year.
According to reports, Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has procured 4.1 million bales of Cotton
so far this year at the minimum support price (MSP) from key growing states like Andhra
Pradesh and Maharashtra and may start selling it to traders.
According to Cotton Advisory Board, India’s Cotton output in 2014-15 will be 40.0 million bales
vs. 39.8 million bales in previous year. Cotton exports are likely to be lower at 9 million bales in
2014-15 season, compared to previous season’s exports of 11.8 million bales.
Industry estimates for Cotton exports in 2014-15 are near 6.5 million bales, much below CAB
estimates.
According to Cotton Association of India (CAI), India produced 40.72 million bales of Cotton
crop in 2013-14 and is likely to produce 40.20 million bales of Cotton output in 2014-15.
According to 1st Advance estimates released by GoI, India’s 2014-15 Cotton output is expected to
be at 34.62 million bales vs. 36.59 million bales in the previous year.
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
International Cotton
ICE Cotton
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
DEC5
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•
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Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Previous
59.49
60.27
61.25
63.42
Open
59.41
60.25
61.34
63.62
High
Low
59.85
60.52
61.45
63.69
59.16
59.86
60.74
62.79
Close
59.23
60.02
60.91
63.04
Net
Chg.
-0.26
-0.25
-0.34
-0.38
%
Chg.
-0.44
-0.41
-0.56
-0.60
ICE Cotton March prices closed lower on Friday
According to ICAC, global inventories will swell to 21.25 million MT by the end of the 2014/15
crop year, lower than its previous estimate of 21.41 million MT.
In 2015/16, ICAC expects world inventory to fall to 21.13 million MT. Production will fall by 1.5
million MT, or 6%, to 24.55 million MT from 26.08 million MT estimated for 2014/15 and
consumption will rise by 28,000 MT to 24.67 million MT.
China imported 92,100 MT of Cotton in November, down 46.8% y-o-y. Chinese Cotton imports
for the first 11 months of the year dropped by 38.6% to 2.18 million MT, the data showed.
ICE Cotton stocks rose to 40,444 bales.
According to CFTC data, for the week ending 13 January, non-commercial traders increased
their net short positions in ICE Cotton.
Date
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
17-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
17-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
19-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates
Commodity
Cotlook Index
US Cotton New York Average
Brazil Cotton Cash
China (ZCE) 1 month forward
India Mumbai Cotton 29 mm
India Mumbai Cotton 34 mm
India Mumbai Cotton 22 mm
India Rajkot Shankar - 6 Kapas (Avg.)
India Akola Cotton Seed Oilcake
China Guangzhou Cotton Oilseed Meal
Rate
67.50
58.46
63.86
12850.00
31100.00
44100.00
28300.00
785.00
1437.50
2580.00
Units
USc/lb.
USc/lb.
USc/lb.
CNY/MT
INR/356 Kg
INR/356 Kg
INR/356 Kg
INR/20 Kg
INR/50 Kg
CNY/MT
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Charts & Outlook
MCX Cotton February (14870)
Trade Recommendation: - Buy on dips to 14820 -14750, S/L 14640, TGT 15150 - 15440.
Outlook: - Rupee is trading stronger. Raw Cotton prices trading near MSP may limit the downside in
Cotton prices. Cotton prices are in extreme oversold zone and prone to sharp short covering. Dips to
14800 levels may attract buying. Cotton prices may stabilize and firm up towards 15500 levels.
ICE Cotton March (59.23)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
ICE Outlook: - Supports are at 58.50 levels. Resistance is at 65.00 levels. Prices may trade sideways to
firm in the near term while above support levels.
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 19, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
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