BCP Forex Weekly 19 January 2015

January 19, 2015
FX Weekly Update
Contacts : Marc Maeder
Utku Eroglu
Oguz Sanli
Tel : +41 (0)22 909 18 32
e-mail forex@bcp-bank.com
Currency Pair
EUR/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
USD/TRY
EUR/TRY
USD/ZAR
EUR/SEK
EUR/NOK
EUR/DKK
GOLD
SILVER
Current Price
1.1599
0.8661
1.0043
1.5158
0.7652
117.29
136.04
2.3399
2.7144
11.5931
9.3980
8.7992
7.4346
1'275.53
17.66
Week Close
1.1567
0.8587
0.9941
1.5150
0.7636
117.51
135.95
2.3259
2.6898
11.5500
9.3584
8.7395
7.4355
1'280.45
17.79
% Change
0.28
0.85
1.02
0.05
0.21
-0.19
0.07
0.60
0.91
0.37
0.42
0.68
-0.01
-0.39
-0.72
Month Close
1.2098
0.9943
1.2030
1.5577
0.7765
119.78
144.85
2.3350
2.8266
11.5706
9.4441
9.0162
7.4471
1'184.37
15.71
% Change
-4.30
-14.80
-19.78
-2.76
-1.48
-2.12
-6.48
0.21
-4.13
0.19
-0.49
-2.47
-0.17
7.15
11.04
Year Close
1.2098
0.9943
1.2030
1.5577
0.7765
119.78
144.85
2.3350
2.8266
11.5706
9.4441
9.0162
7.4471
1'184.37
15.71
% Change
-4.30
-14.80
-19.78
-2.76
-1.48
-2.12
-6.48
0.21
-4.13
0.19
-0.49
-2.47
-0.17
7.15
11.04
200d Moving Avg
1.3030
0.9282
1.2075
1.6359
0.7962
107.89
140.19
2.1914
2.8518
10.9116
9.2094
8.4144
7.4508
1'253.09
18.42
100d Moving Avg
1.2484
0.9602
1.1984
1.5845
0.7878
113.58
141.64
2.2592
2.8200
11.2258
9.2877
8.5711
7.4424
1'211.41
16.92
Period
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan.20
Nov
Survey
-0.40%
-1.40%
13
40
8.25%
5.90%
Prior
0.00%
-0.90%
10
34.9
8.25%
6.00%
Importance
Dec
Dec
Jan.21
Jan.21
Jan.22
Jan.17
Jan.10
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Dec
Dec
Jan
Dec
Dec
1042K
1055K
1.00%
-0.05%
300K
--10.5
48
50.9
51.7
52.5
51
52
-0.70%
-0.60%
54
5.07M
0.40%
1028K
1035K
1.00%
¥80T
0.05%
316K
2424K
-10.9
47.5
50.6
51.2
52.1
50.6
51.6
1.70%
1.60%
53.9
4.93M
0.60%
Weekly Comment
EURUSD
Weak euro got another hit from SNB’s decision last week. The euro fell
rapidly against the dollar and touched 1.1460, which is the lowest level
since late 2003. Long-awaited ECB policy meeting will be held this
Thursday. ECB will announce its quantitative easing (QE) program to boost
Eurozone economy and trigger inflation. In case the ECB fails to fulfill QE
expectations, there is not much reason for euro to appreciate more. The
pair is in oversold territory since the beginning of January and downward
move’s momentum has slowed down. If we see a bounce in EURUSD
before ECB’s meeting we will be happy to sell euro. Resistance above the
short-term downtrend line (dotted red line) is 1.1966 and 1.2000. Identifying
the supports below is really tough since it’s been more than a decade that
we didn’t see EURUSD at these levels. Apart from last week’s low 1.1460,
1.1000 may serve as a support.
USDTRY
Risk-off mood in the currency market lifted USD/EM at the second half of
the previous week. In addition to tension in the market, President
Erdogan’s remarks that called the central bank of Turkey (CBT) to lower
policy rates disturbed USDTRY more than its peers. USDTRY tried to
break 2.3500 many times in the previous weeks but couldn’t stay above it,
thanks to declining oil prices and strong inflow to Turkish bonds. CBT rates
decision will be watched closely tomorrow. Although no change is expected
by many, market players are cautious of a surprise cut due to increased
political pressure. We were waiting to buy USDTRY around 2.2600 but
missed that chance because of SNB. Supports we are watching are
2.3163, 2.3000 and 2.2700/30 at the moment. Resistances ahead are
2.3580 and all-time-high 2.4146.
Key Events
Date
01/20/2015 08:00
01/20/2015 08:00
01/20/2015 11:00
01/20/2015 11:00
01/20/2015 13:00
01/21/2015 10:30
01/21/2015 10:30
01/21/2015 14:30
01/21/2015 14:30
01/21/2015 16:00
01/21/2015
01/22/2015 13:45
01/22/2015 14:30
01/22/2015 14:30
01/22/2015 16:00
01/23/2015 09:00
01/23/2015 09:00
01/23/2015 09:30
01/23/2015 09:30
01/23/2015 10:00
01/23/2015 10:00
01/23/2015 10:30
01/23/2015 10:30
01/23/2015 15:45
01/23/2015 16:00
01/23/2015 16:00
Country
GE
GE
GE
GE
TU
UK
UK
US
US
CA
JN
EC
US
US
EC
FR
FR
GE
GE
EC
EC
UK
UK
US
US
US
Event
PPI MoM
PPI YoY
ZEW Survey Current Situation
ZEW Survey Expectations
Benchmark Repurchase Rate
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Bank of England Minutes
Housing Starts
Building Permits
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Consumer Confidence
Markit France Manufacturing PMI
Markit France Services PMI
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
Markit Germany Services PMI
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Existing Home Sales
Leading Index
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