handout

STAT 3021 Section 2
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Instructor:
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Spring Semester 2015
3:35 p.m. to 4:25 p.m. Monday, Wednesday, and Friday
Vincent Hall 16
Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 9th.ed., by Walpole, Myers,
Myers, and Ye
http://www.stat.umn.edu/˜corbett/classes/3021
John Corbett corbett@umn.edu
612-626-8636
Ford Hall 332 2:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. MWF, and other times by appointment
Test Schedule
What
When
First Test
Second Test
Third Test
Final Exam
February 20
March 27
April 24
May 14 (8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.)
Length
Weight (%)
50 minutes
50 minutes
50 minutes
2 hours
20
20
20
40
General Information
In this course we examine probability theory and its application to statistical problems.
We will cover most of chapters 2–6 and chapters 8–11 of the text.
You must be registered to attend this class. If you are taking this class Pass/Fail (registered
s/n), then you should know that only work at c or better level earns a passing grade. (A
grade of d+ would become an n.) If you want to audit the class, you must register as an
auditor (v). A request for an i grade is granted only in exceptional situations—you would
be earning a passing grade on all the course work before the final exam but events beyond
your control prevent you from taking the final exam at the usual time. An i will not be
given merely to postpone a test you have not prepared for, nor to allow retaking the course
later as an attempt to avoid receiving a low grade this term.
Grade
Your grade for the course is based on a weighted average of the test scores and the final
examination. Each test counts for 20% and the final exam counts for 40%. On a 0–100 point
scale, a score of 90 or higher will be at least an A , a score between and 80 and 90 will be
at least a B , a score between 70 and 80 will be at least a C , and a score between 60 and
70 will be at least a D. These values may be adjusted slightly, but you will not have to earn
more than these score values to get each of these letter grades.
Test Schedule
The topics and dates for the midterm tests are subject to change, but any changes would
be announced in class and on the class web page. The midterm tests are in our regular
classroom, but the final examination will probably not be in our usual classroom. The
location for the final examination will be announced near the end of the semester. The final
examination will be May 14; you should expect midterm tests on February 20, March 27,
and April 24. Each midterm test will take the entire class period and covers about one
third of the course content. The final examination lasts for two hours and covers the entire
course. Some tests may be “closed book” (no books or notes allowed); others may be “open
book” (books, notes, and calculators are allowed). Rules for each test will be announced in
class before the test date. You are expected to be ready to take the tests and exams when
Watch for changes to this information that may be announced in class or on the web page.
STAT 3021 Section 2
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Spring Semester 2015
they are scheduled. Usually there are no makeup tests. If an unavoidable conflict develops,
then you must contact me before the test or exam is given, so we can discuss your options.
Otherwise, you risk getting a score of zero if you miss a test. You may be asked to provide
documentation for any medical excuse. If there is a valid excuse for missing a test I may
use the final exam score in place of the missed test score.
Calculators and other electronic devices
I assume that you have a calculator, and that you know how to use it. You don’t need
an elaborate machine—a basic scientific calculator is sufficient—but you should be able to
work with logarithms, exponents, and so on.
Normally you may use a calculator for tests and exams.
Your answers should look about the same whether or not you use a calculator—you have
to show all the steps you took to solve a problem if you want to get any credit for it.
Merely pushing a button and running a calculator’s built-in program is not the same as
demonstrating that you know how to solve a test problem. Also, if you find an answer by
“brute force” methods (just trying lots of arithmetic on a calculator) you will not receive
credit.
All other types of electronic devices—especially those with wireless capabilities—are banned.
Any such item you bring to an exam you have to stow, turned o↵, under your seat, out of
easy reach.
Help
I will hold regular office hours; otherwise, sending e-mail to corbett@umn.edu is the best
way to contact me, but please put “STAT 3021” in the subject line of any e-mail you send
me.
Special needs
Some students may need accommodations cleared through Disability Services. These students should let me know of their needs within the first two weeks of the semester.
University Policies
Many of the points discussed in this handout are based on official University policies. There
is an Official University Policy on just about any topic. You can find more information about
them at http://www.policy.umn.edu/Policies/Education/index.htm#ctgeducation .
Web Disclaimer
The web page is not intended to be a substitute for attendance. Students are held responsible
for all announcements and all course content delivered in class.
Watch for changes to this information that may be announced in class or on the web page.
STAT 3021 Section 2
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Spring Semester 2015
Tentative Course Outline
Section
Topic
2.1–2.2
2.3
2.4–2.5
2.6
2.7
3.1–3.2
3.3
3.4
4.1
4.2
4.3
5.1–5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
6.1–6.2
6.3–6.4
6.5
6.6
8.1–8.2
8.3–8.4
8.6
9.1–9.4
9.5–9.6
9.8–9.9
9.10–9.11
10.1–10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.8–10.9
11.1–11.2
11.3–11.4
11.5–11.6
Sample Space
Counting
Probability
Conditional probability
Bayes’ rule
Random Variables
Continuous distributions
Joint distributions
Expectation
Variance
Linear combinations
Binomial & Multinomial
Hypergeometric
Negative Binomial
Poisson
Uniform & Normal
Normal
Normal approximation to Binomial
Gamma & Exponential
Sampling
Sample mean
t distribution
Estimating µ
Standard Error; Prediction Intervals
Di↵erence of means
Proportions
Tests
More on tests
Tests for a mean
Two means
Proportions
Regression
Least Squares
Inference & Prediction
Page Suggested Problems
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4a, 5, 14, 17
22, 30, 31, 33, 37
52, 54, 58, 59, 60, 64, 65
75, 81, 89, 91
95, 97, 101
3, 8, 11, 12, 13
6, 7, 17, 19, 21
38, 39, 40, 41
2, 5, 9, 10, 14, 17, 20
34, 35, 36, 38, 43
53, 57, 60, 62, 64, 65, 66
3, 9, 18a, 25
33, 36, 37(1st part)
49, 50, 52
57, 58, 61, 67
5, 7, 9, 15
3, 4, 17, 18
24, 33
41, 45, 46
2, 9, 13, 14
20, 23, 26, 28, 30
47, 48
2, 4a, 5, 6, 10, 11
15, 16
35, 38, 41, 43, 44
54, 64, 66
3, 6, 7
8, 11, 15, 16
19, 20, 21, 23, 25
31, 35, 36, 42
55, 60, 63
2, 3, 10
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26, 27a, 27b
Watch for changes to this information that may be announced in class or on the web page.