Weekly FX Insight - Citibank Hong Kong
Transcription
Weekly FX Insight - Citibank Hong Kong
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page Weekly FX Insight Mar 16, 2015 with data as of Mar 13, 2015 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis FX & Eco. Figures Forecast P. 1 - 3 P. 4 - 8 P. 9 - 13 © 2013 Citibank Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc. Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited Weekly FX Recap Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page Major Currencies Weekly Performance LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE CCY USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CHF GOLD 52 week high 52 week low 1 year % change 26.01% Weekly changes versus US dollar USD INDEX Close Price Day High Day Low 100.33 100.39 97.29 100.39 78.91 1.0496 1.0907 1.0463 1.3993 1.0463 -24.32% 121.40 122.03 120.61 122.03 100.82 -16.11% GBP 1.4744 1.5137 1.4700 1.7192 1.4700 -11.31% CAD 1.2783 1.2824 1.2573 1.2824 1.0621 -13.35% AUD 0.7637 0.7740 0.7561 0.9505 0.7561 -15.44% NZD 0.7334 0.7443 0.7192 0.8836 0.7177 -14.15% CHF 1.0056 1.0129 0.9825 1.0240 0.7406 -13.02% GOLD 1158.55 1175.40 1147.69 1392.22 1131.24 -15.44% Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 EUR 2.78% -3.21% JPY -0.47% -1.95% -1.26% -1.02% -0.38% -1.99% -0.74% -5.00% -3.00% -1.00% 1.00% Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 3.00% 5.00% USD The USD pared gains as U.S. retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.6% in Feb, although the dollar index rose above 100 amid expectations of earlier rate hikes by the Fed. The dollar index rose 2.8%% to close at 100.33 last week. USD outlook: The dollar index may test higher to 101.79. AUD The AUD rebounded from lows to 0.77 as Australia’s employment increased 15600 while unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%, both better than expected. AUD/USD dropped 1% to close at 0.7637 last week. AUD outlook: AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250. EUR The EUR dropped to 1.0463, a 12-year low as the ECB started buying bonds last week, suppressing sovereign bond yields across the Eurozone and widening the yield spreads. EUR/USD dropped 3.2% to close at 1.0496 last week. EUR outlook: EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0341-1.0433. NZD The NZD rebounded from lows to 0.73 as the RBNZ kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.5% and implied not to hike rates in the policy statement. NZD/USD dropped 0.4% to close at 0.7334 last week. NZD outlook: NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7177 upon consolidation. 1 Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page Weekly FX Strategies 1. Bearish - AUD • The AUD may be undermined as the RBA may cut rates again in May • AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250 (5.63) 2. Bearish – NZD • The NZD may be restrained as the RBNZ may talk down the NZD this week • NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7177 (5.57) upon consolidation 3. Neutral – CAD • The CAD may remain range-trading as the BoC may not cut rates this year • USD/CAD may range trade between 1.2547-1.3065 (6.19-5.94) 2 Weekly FX Focus: Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page The AUD may be undermined as the RBA may still cut rates • Although the AUD rebounded recently, the AUD may still be restrained and may resume downtrend upon consolidation amid China’s economic slowdown and USD strengthening. Chart 1: China’s Import of Iron Ore (‘0000 Mt) 9000 8500 8000 • Decreasing China’s demand: As the correction in the property market is spreading, steel consumption in China has already dropped significantly. Since iron ores exported by Australia are used in refining, China’s import of iron ore has also slowed down significantly(Chart 1), which may dampen Australia’s export. • More monetary policy easing in Asia: We think it is significant that this week saw the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Thailand ease monetary policy further after the wall of central bank easings in January. Since Asia is the largest trading region of Australia, the RBA may keep talking down the AUD or even further cut rates in order keep Australia’s export competitive. 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February, 2015 Chart 2: AUD/USD – Daily Chart • A probable rate cut in May: Although Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in February, the decline in unemployment came from falling labour force participation, not from faster jobs creation, which is not what the RBA wants to see. Thus, the RBA may cut rates again in May. • AUD’s downside risks (Chart 2): We expect AUD/USD may drop to 0.70 for the coming 6-12 months. 6-12 month forecast: 0.70 Source: Citi, forecast as of February 20, 2015 • Significant factor: March labour force data and Q1 CPI data will be available before RBA’s policy meeting in May. They are the key to rate cuts. 3 AUD/USD Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250 (5.63) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference Last Price 0.7637 (5.93) Last wk High Last wk Low 2nd Support 1st Support 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 0-3m Forecast 6-12m Forecast 0.7740 (6.01) 0.7561 (5.87) 0.7000 (5.44) 0.7250 (5.63) 0.7909 (6.14) 0.8295 (6.43) 0.75 (5.82) 0.70 (5.44) Upcoming Economic Data Mar 17: RBA’s minutes Market Recap: The AUD dropped on a surge in the USD due to expectations of earlier hike rates by the Fed, although the AUD once rebounded as Australia's unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% to 6.3% in Feb. AUD Outlook: Citi analysts think the decline in unemployment came from falling labour force participation, not from faster jobs creation. Thus, we continue to expect the RBA to cut the interest rate by 25bps in May, which may undermine the AUD in the medium and long term. China's weak fixed asset investment and industrial production may dampen Australia's export of iron ore. A decline in Australia's export income may pressure the AUD. 0.7909 (55MA) 0.7250 (Range bottom) Strong U.S. job data fueled expectations of earlier rate hikes by the Fed. A surge in the USD may pressure the AUD. Technical Analysis: AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250 (5.63), with resistance at 0.7909 (6.14). Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 4 NZD/USD Please note and carefully read the NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7177 (5.57) upon Important Disclosure on the last page consolidation The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference Last Price 0.7334 (5.70) Last wk High Last wk Low 2nd Support 1st Support 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 0-3m Forecast 6-12m Forecast 0.7443 (5.78) 0.7192 (5.59) 0.6948 (5.40) 0.7177 (5.57) 0.7609 (5.91) 0.7811 (6.07) 0.74 (5.75) 0.67 (5.20) Upcoming Economic Data Mar 18: BoP Current Account Balance Mar 19: GDP Market Recap: The RBNZ kept the interest rate unchanged as expected and said NZ is in a different situation than many economies cutting rates, which prompted the NZD to pare losses. NZD Outlook: However, the RBNZ cut its 2015 inflation forecast from 1.5% to 0.4%, highlighting downside risk of inflation and rate outlook. Citi analysts expect the RBNZ to keep the interest rate unchanged, given the strong domestic demand and housing market. The NZD only dropped mildly against other trading partners' currencies. Citi analysts expect the RBNZ to keep talking down the NZD, which may undermine the kiwi. 0.7609 (Dec 2014 low) 0.7177 (Feb low) 0.6948 (Aug 2010 low) Technical Analysis: NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7177 (5.57) upon consolidation. A breach may send the pair lower to 0.6948 (5.40). Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 5 USD/CAD Please note and carefully read the USD/CAD may rise but may find resistance at 1.3065 Important Disclosure on the last page (5.94) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference Last Price 1.2783 (6.08) Last wk High Last wk Low 2nd Support 1st Support 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 0-3m Forecast 6-12m Forecast 1.2824 (6.06) 1.2573 (6.18) 1.2352 (6.29) 1.2547 (6.19) 1.3065 (5.94) 1.3464 (5.77) 1.25 (6.21) 1.30 (5.97) Upcoming Economic Data Mar 20: CPI Mar 20: Retail Sales Market Recap: The CAD dropped on a surge in the USD due to expectations of earlier hike rates by the Fed and as Canada's unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 6.8% in February. CAD Outlook: Canada's full-time employment posted a significant growth of 34K, reflecting job market did not deteriorate significantly. BoC governor said the BoC would observe the economic impacts due to falling oil prices, implying the BoC is unlikely to cut rates again. Pay attention to CPI and consumption data released this week. Citi analysts expect the decline in oil prices has not been completely reflected in the retail market and retail sales may further drop, which may undermine the CAD. 1.3065 (2009 top) 1.2352-1.2547 (Feb low & 20MA) Technical Analysis: Since the weekly chart shows there is a divergence in the RSI, the pair may find resistance at 1.3065 (5.94). Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 6 Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page EUR/USD The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference Last Price Last wk High Last wk Low 2nd Support 1st Support 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 0-3M 6-12M 1.0496 (8.15) 1.0907 (8.47) 1.0463 (8.13) 1.0000 (7.77) 1.0341 (8.03) 1.0684 (8.30) 1.1098 (8.62) 1.12 (8.70) 0.99 (7.69) An official start of ECB's bond purchase program may undermine the EUR in the medium and long term Weekly recap: The ECB dropped amid an official start of ECB's bond purchase program, the unsolved divergence of deficit reduction between Greece and its creditors and fueling expectations of earlier rate hikes by the Fed. Outlook analysis: The bond buying from ECB has already suppressed long-term sovereign bond yields across the Eurozone while U.S. treasury yields have been rising due to expectations of earlier rate hikes by the Fed. Widening Europe-U.S. yield spreads may undermine the EUR in the medium and long term. Technical analysis: EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0341 (8.03), with short-term resistance at 1.0684 (8.30). EUR/USD – Daily Chart 1.0341 (1989 low) 1.0000 (psychological level) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 USD/JPY Last Price Last wk High Last wk Low 2nd Support 1st Support 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 0-3M 6-12M 121.40 122.03 120.61 115.86 119.01 124.14 125.69 118 130 (63.97) (63.64) (64.39) (67.03) (65.25) (62.56) (61.78) (65.81) (59.74) The JPY may be undermined in the medium and long term as negative Japan's core inflation (ex-sales tax) may come i Weekly recap: The USD dropped due to a surge in the USD triggered by expectations of earlier hike rates by the Fed and as Japan's GDP growth slowed down from 2.2% to 1.5% in Q4 2014. Outlook analysis: Although purchasing power rebounded and corporate earnings increased, if oil prices and the JPY remain at the current levels, Citi analysts think negative core inflation (exsales tax) may come in and the BoJ may expand QE in Jul, which may undermine the JPY. Technical analysis: USD/JPY may test higher to 124.14 (62.56) after a breach of a resistance at 121.85, with support at 119.01 (65.25). USD/JPY – Daily Chart 124.14 (Jun 2007 top) 119.01 (55MA) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 7 Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page GBP/USD Last Price Last wk High Last wk Low The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference 2nd Support 1st Support 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance 0-3M 6-12M 1.4744 1.5137 1.4700 1.4231 1.4389 1.4966 1.5137 1.53 1.32 (11.45) (11.75) (11.42) (11.05) (11.17) (11.62) (11.75) (11.87) (10.24) The GBP may be restrained due to political uncertainty as General Election is less than two months away, although U.K. economy remains strong Weekly recap: The GBP dropped due to a surge in the USD triggered by expectations of earlier hike rates by the Fed and as U.K. industrial and manufacturing production dropped from 0.1%MoM to 0.5%MoM in Jan. Outlook analysis: We expect low oil prices and rising salary may underpin U.K. consumption amid strong U.K. economy and falling unemployment rate. However, General Election in May is less than two months away, with no political party taking the lead shown by polls. Political uncertainty may undermine the GBP. Technical analysis: GBP/USD may still have downside pressure. However, since the daily chart shows the RSI is in the oversold region, the pair may find support at 1.4389 (11.17). GBP/USD – Daily Chart 1.4966 (Jan top) 1.4231-1.4389 (May & Jun 2010 lows) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 USD/CNY Last Price Last wk High Last wk Low 0-3M 6-12M 6.2589 6.2677 6.2571 6.25 6.30 Continuous trade surplus may underpin the CNY in the long term although China's rate cuts may undermine the CNY in the short term Weekly recap: The CNY rebounded from lows as markets digested the impacts of a rate cut by the PBoC, although China's Jan-Feb fixed asset investment and industrial production dropped to a low since 2001 and since 2009 respectively. Outlook analysis: Data showed targeted easing policies implemented by the PBoC did not support the economy effectively. We expect the PBoC may cut the interest rate twice and cut RRR three times this year, which may undermine the CNY in the short term. However, in the long term, the PBoC may not let the CNY depreciate too much amid increasing trade surplus and avoid undermining the internationalization of the CNY. USD/CNY may drop to 6.10 in the long term. USD/CNY – Daily Chart 6.30 (6-12 month forecast) 6.25 (0-3 month forecast) Long-term forecast: 6.10 Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015 8 Upcoming Economic Figures and Events The USD may be underpinned amid FOMC’s rate decision Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page FOMC’s rate decision U.S. Markets may pay attention to whether the Fed may delete "patience" and may be optimistic about the economic outlook, which may underpin the USD SNB’s rate decision Switzerland Policymakers look set to talk down CHF, framing it ‘extremely overvalued’ and hold over the market the threat of more FX intervention or further rate cuts. RBA’s minutes Australia The Board Minutes will provide more details on the decision to keep the cash rate target at 2.25% and give more clarification about possibility of further rate cuts. 2014 Q4 GDP New Zealand Economic activity is likely to have expanded at another solid clip in Q4. Our 0.9% growth forecast would push GDP higher to 3.5%. We expect growth to be led by household consumption, with a small contribution from dwelling investment March 19 (Thur): FOMC’s rate decision March 19 (Thur): SNB’s rate decision March 17 (Tue): RBA’s minutes March 19 (Thur): GDP (QoQ) Citi forecast Prior 0.90% 1.00% 9 Appendix 1: Citi Interest Rate and FX Forecast for 2015 Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page Citi FX Outlook Forecast Dollar Index EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/CNY 0-3 month 95.42 1.12 1.53 118 0.98 0.75 0.74 1.25 6.25 Source: Citi, forecast as of Feb 27, 2015 EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY 6-12 month 106.94 0.99 1.32 130 1.11 0.70 0.67 1.30 6.30 Forecast downgraded Citi FX Interest Rate Forecast 3/13/15 0.25 0.05 0.50 0.10 -0.75 2.25 3.50 0.75 2.50 Forecast upgraded 2Q ’15 0.25 0.05 0.50 0.10 -0.75 2.00 3.50 0.75 2.00 Rate cut expectations 3Q ’15 0.25 0.05 0.50 0.10 -0.75 2.00 3.50 0.75 2.00 4Q ’15 0.50 0.05 0.50 0.10 -0.75 2.00 3.50 0.75 2.00 Rate hike expectations The EUR may find support at 1.12 in the short term as Greek problem may be solved and the Eurozone's economy slightly improved. However, the EUR may drop to 0.99 for the coming 6-12 months as the ECB may expand QE. Due to strong economy and possible rate hikes in 2016 Q1, GBP/USD may stabilize at 1.53 for the coming 0-3 months. But political risk premia may rise further out and U.K. is facing the serious twin fiscal/ current account deficits, which may undermine the GBP. Thus, Citi analysts expect the GBP to test lower to 1.32 for the coming 6-12 months. The AUD downtrend may be limited to 0.75 since it has been seriously oversold in the short term. However, since iron ore, Australia's major export, may remain weak and it is difficult for Australia's export profitability to recover, the AUD may drop to 0.70 for the coming 6-12 months. Prices of dairy products, NZ’s major export, may remain weak in the medium term. Since China and Australia, NZ’s major trading partners, eased monetary policies amid global inflation cooling, forcing the corresponding currencies to depreciate, NZ’s export competitiveness has been weakened, which may undermine the NZD. USD/JPY may range trade between 116-121 amid a lack of news of the BoJ expanding QE. However, USD/JPY may rise to 130 for the coming 6-12 months amid a divergence between U.S. monetary policy and Japan's. 10 Appendix 2: Citi FX Quarterly Forecasts Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page 1Q '15 2Q ’15 3Q ’15 4Q '15 1Q '16 2Q '16 3Q '16 4Q '16 1Q '17 Dollar Index 95.9 99.9 104.3 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.4 110.1 109.7 EUR/USD 1.11 1.07 1.02 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.96 GBP/USD 1.52 1.45 1.36 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.31 USD/JPY 119 123 128 130 131 132 133 134 135 USD/CHF 0.99 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.15 AUD/USD 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 NZD/USD 0.74 0.71 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.65 USD/CAD 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.29 USD/CNY 6.25 6.27 6.29 6.28 6.24 6.20 6.16 6.12. 6.10 USD / SGD 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 USD / BRL 3.10 3.08 3.06 3.05 3.04 3.03 3.02 3.01 3.00 USD / RUB 65.2 67.2 69.2 70.1 69.5 69.0 68.4 67.8 66.6 USD / ZAR 11.81 11.92 12.04 12.12 12.16 12.20 12.24 12.28 12.24 Source: Citi, as of Feb 20, 2015 Source: Bloomberg L.P. 11 Appendix 3: Last week’s Economic Figures Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page Time Importance Event Period Actual Survey Prior Monday 03/09/2015 07:50 JN ! Trade Balance BoP Basis Jan -¥864.2B -¥936.0B -¥395.6B 03/09/2015 07:50 JN !!! GDP Annualized SA QoQ 4Q 1.50% 2.20% 2.20% 03/09/2015 20:15 CA !! Housing Starts Feb 156.3K 179.0K 187.0K Tuesday 03/10/2015 08:30 AU ! NAB Business Confidence Feb 0 -- 3 03/10/2015 09:30 CH !! CPI YoY Feb 1.40% 1.00% 0.80% Wednesday 03/11/2015 07:30 AU ! Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Mar -1.2% -- 8.00% 03/11/2015 17:30 UK !! Industrial Production YoY Jan 1.30% 1.30% 0.80% 03/11/2015 17:30 UK !! Manufacturing Production YoY Jan 1.90% 2.60% 2.60% Feb -- -$201.0B -3.50% Thursday 03/12/2015 02:00 US ! Monthly Budget Statement 03/12/2015 04:00 NZ !!! RBNZ Official Cash Rate Mar 3.50% 3.50% 03/12/2015 08:01 UK !! RICS House Price Balance Feb 14% 6% 7% 03/12/2015 08:30 AU !!! Employment Change Feb 15.6K 15.0K -12.2K 03/12/2015 08:30 AU !!! Unemployment Rate Feb 6.30% 6.40% 6.40% 03/12/2015 17:30 UK ! Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Jan -£8412 -£9650 -£9929 03/12/2015 18:00 EC ! Industrial Production WDA YoY Jan 1.20% 0.10% 0.60% 03/12/2015 20:30 US !! Retail Sales Advance MoM Feb -0.60% 0.30% -0.80% 03/12/2015 20:30 US !! Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Feb -0.10% 0.50% -1.10% 03/12/2015 20:30 US !! Initial Jobless Claims Mar 289K 305K 325K Friday 03/13/2015 05:30 NZ ! BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Feb 55.9 -- 50.7 03/13/2015 20:30 CA !! Unemployment Rate Feb 6.80% 6.70% 6.60% 03/13/2015 20:30 CA !! Net Change in Employment Feb -1.0K -5.0K 35.4K 03/13/2015 22:00 US !! U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar 91.2 95.5 95.4 Source: Bloomberg L.P. 12 Appendix 3: Upcoming Economic Figures (Mar 16, 2015 – Mar 20, 2015) Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page Time Importance Event Period Actual Survey Prior Jan Feb Feb Jan ----- -0.90% 2.10% -0.50% -13.55B 1.00% 2.20% -2.00% Feb Jan Mar ---- -0.30% -58 -0.30% 17.8B 53 Mar Feb -- 4Q 4Q --- -3.060B 0.80% -5.012B 1.00% Mar -- -- -0.25% Feb Jan Mar --- -31.0K 5.70% -38.6K 5.70% Feb Jan Feb Feb Mar 4Q Mar -------- 0.30% --2.40% 0.50% 0.25% -$102.0B -- 0.20% -$174.8B -2.00% -0.70% 0.25% -$100.3B 289K Australia 03/17/2015 08:30 Tue !! RBA March Meeting Minutes Mar Canada 03/16/2015 20:30 03/20/2015 20:30 03/20/2015 20:30 03/20/2015 20:30 Mon Fri Fri Fri ! !! !! !! Int'l Securities Transactions CPI YoY CPI Core YoY Retail Sales MoM 03/17/2015 18:00 03/20/2015 17:00 03/17/2015 18:00 Tue Fri Tue !!! ! !! CPI YoY ECB Current Account SA ZEW Survey Expectations 03/17/2015 03/18/2015 07:50 Tue Wed !! ! Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement Trade Balance Adjusted 03/18/2015 05:45 03/19/2015 05:45 Wed Thur ! !! BoP Current Account Balance GDP SA QoQ Europe / Germany Japan -¥1276.5B -¥406.1B New Zealand Switzerland 03/19/2015 16:30 Thur !! SNB 3-Month Libor Target Rate 03/18/2015 17:30 03/18/2015 17:30 03/18/2015 17:30 Wed Wed Wed !! !! !! Jobless Claims Change ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Bank of England Minutes 03/16/2015 21:15 03/17/2015 04:00 03/17/2015 20:30 03/17/2015 20:30 03/19/2015 02:00 03/19/2015 20:30 03/19/2015 20:30 Source: Bloomberg L.P. Mon Tue Tue Tue Thur Thur Thur ! ! !! !! !!! ! !! Industrial Production MoM Total Net TIC Flows Housing Starts MoM Building Permits MoM FOMC Rate Decision Current Account Balance Initial Jobless Claims U.K. U.S. 13 Important Disclosure For any enquiries, please call (852) 2860-0333 This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, and Citigroup Global Wealth Management. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited (“Citibank”) or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes to be reliable, Citi analysts do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change. Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Investment products: (i) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including Citibank); and (iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecasts are a joint venture between Citi’s foreign exchange, global macro and technical strategy groups and our developed and emerging markets economists. Under normal circumstances, we expect to present Forecasts on a monthly schedule although we may offer intra month updates if circumstances dictate. Technical Trend: All views, opinions and estimates derived from CitiFX Technicals (i) may change without notice and (ii) may differ from those views;, opinions and estimates held or expressed by Citi or other Citi personnel, including Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecast. Should CitiFX Technicals not cover any major currency pairs, the indication of short-term technical "bullish", "bearish", or "neutral" trends will be based on the result of analysis with various widely known short-term technical analysis tools, namely RSI, MACD, fibonacci, stochastics, bollinger bands, and simple moving averages. 14