Report - CREDICORP capital

Transcription

Report - CREDICORP capital
April 8th 2015
CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH
Chile: +(562) 2450 1600
Colombia: +(571) 339 4400 Ext. 1505
Peru: +(511) 205 9190 Ext. 36070
Credicorp Capital Research
Andean Daily Report
V a lua tions
P / E
CHILE
EV / EBITDA
P / BV
2 0 15 E 2 0 16 E 2 0 15 E 2 0 16 E
LTM
Country
 March inflation comes in under expectations
 The Central Bank of Chile releases its survey for Financial Traders
Chile
18.1x
15.8x
8.9x
8.0x
1.8x
 Chilean Electric Utilities Output – 1Q 2015 - Higher hydro output and
lower fuel prices drive strong decrease in average marginal cost (Full
report attached)
Colombia
21.8x
17.9x
8.2x
7.4x
1.4x
Peru
16.9x
9.2x
8.3x
5.9x
1.3x
 LATAM Airlines: LAN Express went on strike last night
Index
Last
S&P MILA 40
S&P INDEX
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Mex ico
Brazil
Equities Latam
606
2,076
3,981
1,356
12,878
44,988
53,729
2,603
Fx Rates
Last
CLP / US$
UF / CLP
Peru / US$
Colombia / US$
Brazil / US$
CLP / Euro
Euro / US$
610
24,645
3.10
2,514
3.13
660
1.08
Commodities
Last
Copper (US$/lb)
Gold (US$/oz)
Silv er (US$/oz)
Brent (US$/bbl)
Pulp (US$/MT)
WTI (US$/bbl)
276
1,211
16.8
58
865
54
 Banmedica announces that tax involved in irregular payments amount
to at least CLP 810mn
COLOMBIA
 Exports continued its downward trend in Feb-15
 Local oil production reached 1,021 kboepd during March - 2015
PERU
 Ollanta Humala shows support for Tia Maria Project
 GDP may grow less than 4% according to the Minister of Economy
and Finance
 IMF: Social policy and educational reforms yield marked results
 Moody’s, Fitch: New cabinet maintains GDP forecasts at around 4%;
economic policy to remain stable and credible going forward
 Inter-American Development
generating jobs
Bank:
Peru
growth
to
continue
 Gloria Corporation buys all of Maple Energy assets for USD 108mn
D/D %
YTD%
Local USD
Local USD
0.2%
0.2%
-4.9% -4.9%
-0.2% -0.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.0%
0.3%
3.4%
2.9%
0.4%
1.2% -10.4% -15.0%
-0.6% -0.8% -13.0% -16.3%
0.3% -0.1%
4.3%
3.1%
0.0% -0.7%
7.4% -8.7%
-0.7% -0.7%
-4.6% -4.6%
D/D %
YTD%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
-0.8%
0.1%
-1.3%
-1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4.0%
5.8%
18.3%
-10.0%
-10.6%
D/D %
Local USD
1.7%
-0.7%
-1.6%
1.3%
-1.7%
3.5%
Local
YTD%
USD
-2.1%
2.1%
7.7%
3.7%
-7.2%
1.3%
Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on
page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on Page 8. Additional disclosures on page 10.
Chile
Economics and Politics
March inflation comes in under expectations
The INE released the inflation for the month of March, which recorded a monthly rise of 0.6%,
lower than the markets (0.9%) and our expectations (0.8%). Monthly inflation was influenced
mainly by the rise in education prices (5.1%), due to annual readjustments. With this result, the
annual inflation decreased to 4.2% y/y, slightly over the target range (2.0%-4.0%).
The Central Bank of Chile releases its survey for Financial Traders
Financial traders are forecasting 0.3% m/m inflation for April and a 3.4% y/y for the next 12
months, 0.10 pp higher than the last survey. They do not expect a policy rate movement over the
coming months, expecting a level of 3% through April 2016. In terms of foreign exchanged,
traders decreased their forecast to CLP 625 by year’s end (635 in the previous survey).
Company News
Chilean Electric Utilities Output – 1Q 2015 (Full report attached)
Higher hydro output and lower fuel prices drive strong decrease in average marginal cost
SIC Generation: output increased 1.9% y/y during 1Q15. Coal-fired generation decreased 3.9%,
mainly explained by lower dispatch from Bocamina I (now also out, and expected to return in
May). LNG generation increased 10.3% y/y, driven by higher dispatch from Gener’s Nueva
Renca, which has been leased to Endesa Chile. Hydro generation was up 3.3%, following a better
snowmelt season. Average marginal cost reached 134.5 USD/MWh, down 18.5% when
compared to 1Q14.
 SING Generation: output increased 3.6% y/y. Growth was driven by LNG generation (+15%
y/y), while coal-fired generation was roughly flat over the period (+1.9% y/y). Diesel output
decreased 2.9% y/y. Average marginal cost during the quarter decreased 44.4% y/y, reaching
48.8 USD/MWh.
 Hydrology: prediction models continue to show a lean towards El Niño phenomenon (wet
season in Chile), though the neutral scenario (average rain levels) would also be quite
probable.
 We see 1Q15 generation figures in Chile as positive mainly for E-CL, while neutral for AES
Gener, Colbun and Endesa.
LATAM Airlines: LAN Express went on strike last night
(LATAM AIRLINES: HOLD; T.P.: CLP 7,800)
According to a local news source, the workers of LAN Express decided to go on strike last night,
following the unsuccessful negotiations held with management, which were even moderated by
the government. The strike was approved by 98% of maintenance and auxiliary syndicated
workers from the mentioned branch company. LAN Express’ labor union seeks a wage increase
of 15%, along with an improvement in the incentives currently used, according to the source.
2
Banmedica announces that tax involved in irregular payments amount to at least CLP
810mn
(BANMEDICA: HOLD; T.P.: CLP 1,340)
In a material fact released publically, Banmedica announced the impact in taxes due to irregular
payments made by the former CEO, Carlos Kubick. According to the company, they detected tax
issues regarding income tax and rejected expenses associated with the bills issued through
subsidiaries of Banmedica. Regarding the income tax of the executives involved, the company
stated that the amount involved was already declared and paid by the executives. On the other
hand, the tax amount related to the rejected expenses amounts to CLP 810 mn. This amount has
not been paid and the company is awaiting further information from Kubick. If any criminal
irregularities are found, the executives could be charged in a criminal prosecution.
We believe this issue will not have a relevant financial effect on the company or on our valuation.
Colombia
Economics and Politics
Exports continued its downward trend in Feb-15
According to DANE, exports went down 26.8% y/y in Feb-15, from USD 4,271.4 mn to USD 3,128
mn, amid a sharp decrease, once again, in sales of fuels and products from extractive industries
(-36.4% y/y) and manufacturing products (-9.7% y/y), despite a more favorable FX rate. On the
other hand, exports of agricultural products, food and beverages continued its positive trend,
posting an advance of 6.8% y/y. As observed in the previous months, the contraction of fuels and
products from extractive industries was related to the sharp decrease of oil and oil derivatives
sales (-45.2% y/y). However, this behavior was caused by the current low oil price level, whose
plunge began around Jun-14 and accumulates losses of roughly 46% since then. In fact, the
amount of exported barrels significantly increased (+18.2% y/y) in Feb-15, from 20.8 mn barrels
to 24.6 mn.
Thus, during the first two months of the year, the overall external sales of Colombia cumulate
losses of 33.8% y/y, mainly led by the contraction of fuels and products from extractive industries
exports (47.3% y/y).
Company News
Local oil production reached 1,021 kboepd during March - 2015
(ECOPETROL: HOLD; T.P.: COP 1,670 / PACIFIC RUBIALES: UNDERPERFORM; T.P.: COP
11,400 / CANACOL: UNDERPERFORM; T.P.: COP 5,720)
According to the Ministry of Energy, local production reached 1,021 kboepd in March – 2015,
equivalent to a 4.2% y/y increase. Here, we highlight that this is the sixth consecutive month that
local oil production is placed above 1,000 kboepd. As a result, average oil production for 1Q15 is
placed at 1,028 kboepd or 3% higher compared to the same period of 2014. We consider this
figure as positive, particularly for Ecopetrol as key oil fields for the state owned company have
driven the increase in production.
3
Peru
Economics and Politics
Ollanta Humala shows support for Tia Maria Project
Yesterday, the president ratified his support for the development of the Tia Maria project in
Arequipa, after two weeks of environmental led strikes and protests in the communities
nearby.“We have to work hard to convince people to give this project an opportunity” he stated.
GDP may grow less than 4% according to the Minister of Economy and Finance
Alonso Segura pointed out that the economy may grow less than 4% this year, even though the
official Ministry’s forecast is 4.2% for 2015. Lower growth may be in part affected by the El Niño
phenomenon and whether its intensity affects the recuperation of primary sectors, especially
fishing. The deceleration of consumption and investment may hit the official estimates too.
IMF: Social policy and educational reforms yield marked results
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported that ambitious educational reforms and
inclusive social policy are yielding notable improvements in Peru, which should further continue
within the country’s fiscal policy framework. The report highlighted efforts made by the
government to streamline processes for issuing licences and investment permits, acceleration of
infrastructure projects, diversifying exports and driving innovation. Emphasis was also placed on
stronger capacity for the execution of investments and improved understanding of the private
sector via Public-Private Partnerships.
Moody’s, Fitch: New cabinet maintains GDP forecasts at around 4%; economic policy to
remain stable and credible going forward
Peru’s new Ministerial Cabinet, led by Pedro Cateriano, will keep 2015 growth forecasts at 4% for
the year ahead, confirmed Moody’s VP Jaime Reusche. “In our view, the change in Cabinet has
had no effect on the most important factors: prudent management of macro and fiscal policy,
which are our fundamental strengths”, he said in an interview. He added that the market
conditions are right for the new Cabinet to maintain a dynamic macroeconomic environment for
2015, without the pressure of falling metals prices and the supply shocks that hampered growth
last year. Meanwhile Fitch Ratings’ director of sovereign credit ratings for LatAm, Erich Arispe,
commented that despite the change in Cabinet, there were no plans to move away from current
macroeconomic policy, enhancing Peru’s investment credibility and policy coherence.
4
Inter-American Development Bank: Peru growth to continue generating jobs
The lnter-American Development Bank’s (IADB) representative for Peru, Fidel Jaramillo, said that
the country’s growth in 2015 would generate numerous jobs and highlighted the importance of
consolidating the boom within the domestic economy. He asserted that, “The best social policy is
the creation of sustainable employment; the ultimate aim is socially inclusive economic growth”.
Company News
Gloria Corporation buys all of Maple Energy assets for USD 108mn
According to a local news source, the Peruvian company acquired 10 hectares and the ethanol
and electricity generating plants located at the Chira Valley in the Piura region for USD 108mn.
Maple Energy announced that the funds will be used to pay down debt.
5
Trading Information
Traded Volume
Country
Vol. (USDmn)
Best sector
Worst Sector
Chile
139.3
Consumption / +0.79%
Industrial / -1.49%
Colombia
71.9
-
-
Peru
27.7
Banks & Fin. / +0.05%
Industrial / -1.03%
Volume Leaders
Chile
USD Th.
Gasco
$ 23,979.1
Enersis
Aguas-A
Colombia
Clp. %
USD Th.
Peru
Cop. %
USD Th.
1.09%
Ecopetrol
$ 22,770.0
0.00%
Rio Alto Mining
$ 12,336.8
0.76%
PFGrupsura
$ 15,605.5
1.85%
$ 10,219.1
-0.02%
CLH
$ 10,817.2
2.36%
Pen %
$ 26,044
-12.06%
Credicorp
$ 533
-0.27%
Alicorp
$ 206
-0.32%
Top Winners & Losers
Chile
Top Winners
CLP
Security
$ 203
Colombia
Peru
Top Winners
COP
Cop.%
Top Winners
3.67%
BVC
$ 19
5.08%
Milpo
$ 1.94
2.11%
$ 1,250
2.33%
Bogota
$ 58,480
3.14%
Minsur
$ 1.40
1.45%
Besalco
$ 331
2.14%
CLH
$ 13,900
2.36%
Atacocha-B
$ 0.15
0.68%
Top Losers
CLP
COP
Cop.%
Top Losers
PEN / USD
Banmedica
Clp.%
Clp.%
Top Losers
PEN / USD
%
%
Latam
$ 5,268
-1.91%
Pacific Rubiales
$ 6,030
-4.29%
Rio Alto Mining
$ 2.48
-12.06%
ILC
$ 7,307
-1.25%
Bancolombia
$ 25,940
-1.37%
Siderperu
$ 0.16
-5.88%
Entel
$ 6,453
-1.18%
Grupo Av al
$ 1,185
-0.42%
Trev ali
$ 0.83
-4.60%
Sources: Bloomberg & Credicorp Capital
6
Economic Calendar
Chile
Date
30-Mar
6-Apr
8-Apr
Time
8:30
8:00
Indicator / Event
Period
Central Bank 1Q Monetary Policy Report (IPoM)
Economic Activity YoY
Feb-15
CPI MoM
Mar-15
Consensus
Credicorp
Capital
Actual
Previous
2.0%
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3.0%
0.4%
Consensus
0.57%
-
Credicorp
Capital
-
Actual
Previous
0.59%
3.0%
1.15%
-
Consensus
3.13%
Credicorp
Capital
-
Actual
Previous
0.76%
-
0.3%
3.3%
Colombia
Date
4-Apr
7-Apr
Time
14:00
18:00
Indicator / Event
CPI MoM
Economic Activity Index SA YoY
Period
Mar-15
Jan-15
Peru
Date
1-Apr
9-Apr
Time
2:00
2:00
Indicator / Event
CPI MoM
Reference Rate
Period
Jan-15
Apr-15
Sources: Bloomberg & Credicorp Capital
ECO
7
Important Disclosures
This research report was prepared by CredicorpCapital Peru S.A and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionista de
Bolsa and/or IM Trust S.A. Corredores de Bolsa, companies authorized to engage in securities activities in Peru, Colombia and
Chile, respectively and indirect subsidiaries of Credicorp Capital Ltd. (jointly referred to as “Credicorp Capital”). None of the
companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital are registered as broker-dealers in the United States and, therefore, they are not
subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report
is provided for distribution only to “major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule
15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).
Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments
based on the information provided in this research report can do so only through Credicorp Securities Inc., a registered brokerdealer in the United States. Under no circumstances may a U.S. recipient of this research report effect any transaction to buy or sell
securities or related financial instruments directly through Credicorp Capital.
Credicorp Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the
extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor.
Any analyst whose name appears on this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and is not a registered representative of Credicorp Securities Inc. and, therefore, is not
subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading
securities held by a research analyst account.
A.Analyst Disclosures
The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research Analyst
unless otherwise stated on the cover.
Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity Research Analyst listed on the front-page of this report is principally
responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report and hereby certifies thatwith
respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the Equity Research
Analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about
those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity Research Analyst also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that Equity Research Analyst in this research
report.
Each Equity Research Analyst certifies that he or she is acting independently and impartially from the referenced
company/shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any of the
companies’ activities.
Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this research report
attest(s) that no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations that
he or she expressed in the research report.
Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of
one of the companies jointly referred as Credicorp Capital, which are non-US affiliates of Credicorp Securities Inc., a SEC registered
and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity Research Analysts employed by the companies jointly referred as Credicorp Capital, are
not registered/ qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, are not registered representatives of CredicorpSecurities
Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public
appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Please refer to www.credicorpcapital.com for further
information relating to research and conflict of interest management.
8
B.Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates ‘beneficially own’, as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange
Act, 1% or more of the equity securities of any of the companies referenced in this report.
Credicorp Securities Inc., its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may have interests, or long or short
positions, and may at any time make purchases or sales as a principal or agent of the securities referred to herein.
C.Compensation and Investment Banking Activities
Within the last 12 months, Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for
the following companies: LATAM Airlines and Banmedica. Within the last 12 months, Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates have
received compensation for investment banking services from: LATAM Airlines and Banmedica. Neither Credicorp Securities Inc. nor
its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from any of the subject companies in
the next 3 months.
D. Rating System
Stock ratings are based on the analyst’s expectation of the stock’s total return during the twelve to eighteen months following
assignment of the rating. This view is based on the target price, set as described below, and on the analyst’s opinion, general market
conditions and economic developments.
Buy: Expected returns of 5 percentage points or more in excess over the expected return of the local index, over the next 12-18
months.
Hold: Expected returns of +/- 5% in excess/below the expected return of the local index over the next 12-18 months.
Underperform: Expected to underperform the local index by 5 percentage points or more over the next 12-18 months.
Under Review / Restricted: Company coverage is under review or restricted.
The IPSA, COLCAP and IGBVL indexes are the selective equity indexes calculated by the Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago, the
Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, and the Bolsa de Valores de Lima, respectively.
In making a recommendation, the analyst compares the target price with the actual share price, and compares the resulting
expected return for the IPSA, the COLCAP, and/or the IGBVL indexes, as estimated by IM Trust Corredores de Bolsa S.A.,
Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa, and/or CredicorpCapital Peru S.A, and then makes a recommendation
derived from the difference in upside potential between the shares and the respective index.
E. Distribution of Ratings
N° of Companies covered with this
rating
Companies covered with this
rating (% )
Buy
32
39%
Hold
42
51%
Underperform
7
8%
Under Review /
Restricted
2
2%
Total
83
100%
Rating
9
F.Price Target
Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or
comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of
this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation
method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include
unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such demand variations may
result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be
affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and
instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and
political and social conditions. This discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is
available upon request.
II.ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES
This product is not for retail clients or private individuals.
The information contained in this publication was obtained from various publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but has not
been independently verified by the companies jointly referred as Credicorp Capital, therefore they do not warrant the completeness
or accuracy of such information and does not accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of such information,
except to the extent required by applicable law.
This publication is a brief summary and does not purport to contain all available information on the subjects covered. Further
information may be available on request. This report may not be reproduced for further publication unless the source is quoted. This
publication is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription or purchase or
sale of any securities, or as an invitation, inducement or intermediation for the sale, subscription or purchase of any securities, or for
engaging in any other transaction. This publication is not for private individuals.
Any opinions, projections, forecasts or estimates in this report are those of the author only, who has acted with a high degree of
expertise. They reflect only the current views of the author at the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The
companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital have no obligation to update, modify or amend this publication or to otherwise
notify a reader or recipient of this publication in the event that any matter, opinion, projection, forecast or estimate contained herein,
changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn. The analysis, opinions,
projections, forecasts and estimates expressed in this report were in no way affected or influenced by the issuer. The author of this
publication benefits financially from the overall success of Credicorp Capital.
The investments referred to in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients. Recipients are urged to base their investment
decisions upon their own appropriate investigations that they deem necessary. Any loss or other consequence arising from the use
of the material contained in this publication shall be the sole and exclusive responsibility of the investor and Credicorp Capital
accepts no liability for any such loss or consequence. In the event of any doubt about any investment, recipients should contact their
own investment, legal and/or tax advisers to seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing. Some of the investments
mentioned in this publication may not be readily liquid investments. Consequently it may be difficult to sell or realize such
investments. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance of an investment. The value of investments and the income
derived from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. Some investments discussed in this
publication may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value which
may cause losses. International investing includes risks related to political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries, as well
as currency risk.
10
To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss, damages, costs or
prejudices whatsoever arising from the use of this publication or its contents.
Credicorp Capital (and its affiliates) has implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of
interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The Credicorp Capital research
analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of Credicorp Capital’s
Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research analysts and staff involved in
securities trading for the account of Credicorp Capital or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled according to
applicable laws and regulations.
Country and region disclosures
United Kingdom: This document is for persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt from the
general restriction in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements
to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons of a kind described
in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) and 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. Any investment to which this document relates is available only to such persons
and other classes of person should not rely on this document.
United States: This communication is only intended for, and will only be distributed to, persons residing in any jurisdictions where
such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local law or regulation. This communication must not be acted upon or relied
on by persons in any jurisdiction other than in accordance with local law or regulation and where such person is an investment
professional with the requisite sophistication to understand an investment in such securities of the type communicated and assume
the risks associated therewith.
This communication is confidential and is intended solely for the addressee. It is not to be forwarded to any other person or copied
without the permission of the sender. This communication is provided for information only. It is not a personal recommendation or an
offer to sell or a solicitation to buy the securities mentioned. Investors should obtain independent professional advice before making
an investment.
Notice to U.S. Investors: This material is not for distribution in the United States, except to “major US institutional investors” as
defined in SEC Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") and related guidance. Credicorp Capital and its affiliates has entered into arrangements
with Credicorp Securities Inc., which enables this report to be furnished to certain U.S. recipients in reliance on Rule 15a-6 through
Credicorp Securities Inc., which is registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
Each U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is a "major U.S. institutional
investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6) and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such
securities. Any U.S. recipient of this report that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer
mentioned herein, or engages in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should
contact a registered representative of the Credicorp Securities Inc. that provided the report.
Credicorp Securities Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC, a member of FINRA and SIPC. You can reach Credicorp
Securities Inc. At 121 Alhambra Plaza, suite 1200, Coral Gables, Miami 33134, phone (305) 4480971 Equity trading: 786 999 1633.
You may obtain information about SIPC, including the SIPC brochure, by contacting SIPC directly at 202-371-8300; website:
http://www.sipc.org
11
Credicorp Securities Inc., is a wholly owned subsidiary of Credicorp Capital Ltd.
Nothing herein excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer that Credicorp Securities Inc. have under applicable law.
Investment products provided by or through Credicorp Securities Inc. are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution, may lose value and are not guaranteed by the entity
that published the research as disclosed on the front page and are not guaranteed by Credicorp Securities Inc.
Investing in non-U.S. Securities may entail certain risks. The securities referred to in this report and non-U.S. issuers may not be
registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting
and/or other requirements. Rule 144A securities may be offered or sold only to persons in the U.S. who are Qualified Institutional
Buyers within the meaning of Rule 144A under the Securities Act. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be
limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies.
Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies. Securities discussed
herein may be rated below investment grade and should therefore only be considered for inclusion in accounts qualified for
speculative investment.
Analysts employed by one of the companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital, all of which are non-U.S. broker-dealers, are not
required to take the FINRA analyst exam. The information contained in this report is intended solely for certain "major U.S.
institutional investors" and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Such information is provided for
informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of
1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities
discussed in this report may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and
financial position.
In jurisdictions where Credicorp Securities Inc. is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, or other financial products,
transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction
and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing
requirements.
The information in this publication is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Credicorp Securities Inc. does not make any
representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author's judgment at the
original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without
notice.
Credicorp Securities Inc. or its affiliates may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions
from, the information presented in this report. These publications reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of
the analysts who prepared them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance.
Credicorp Securities Inc. and any company affiliated with it may, with respect to any securities discussed herein: (a) take a long or
short position and buy or sell such securities; (b) act as investment and/or commercial bankers for issuers of such securities; (c) act
as market makers for such securities; (d) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities; and (e) act as paid consultant or
advisor to any issuer. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal
securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company's actual results and financial condition
to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely
affect the level of demand for the company's products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international
and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking
statements contained in this report are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
Other countries: Laws and regulations of other countries may also restrict the distribution of this report. Persons in possession of
this document should inform themselves about possible legal restrictions and observe them accordingly.
12
CONTACT LIST
ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM
SALES & TRADING
Heinrich Lessau
Hugo Horta
Director of Research
hlessau@credicorpcapital.com
Director of Sales & Trading
hhorta@credicorpcapital.com
EQUITY RESEARCH
EQUITY SALES & TRADING
CHILE
COLOMBIA
PERU
Hernán Arellano
Francisca Manuschevich
César Cuervo
Héctor Collantes
Head of Equities
harellano@credicorpcapital.com
Head of Equity Research
fmanuschevich@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1798
Head of North Andean Equity Research
ccuervo@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1012
Head of Equity Research
hcollantes@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052
Javier Günther
Marilyn Macdonald
Cristián Castillo
Christopher DiSalvatore
Jaime Pedroza
Fernando Pereda
Associate: Retail & Financials
cdisalvatore@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1724
Senior Analyst: Utilities
jpedroza@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1025
Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities
fpereda@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 37856
International Equity Sales
jgunther@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2450 1695
International Equity Sales
mar_macdonald@btconnect.com
# (4477) 7151 5855
International Sales Trader
ccastillo@credicorpcapital.com
# (786) 999 1633
CHILE
PERU
COLOMBIA
Arturo Prado
Juan C. Domínguez
Iván Bogarín
René Ossa
Rodrigo Zavala
Juan A. Jiménez
Senior Analyst: Natural Resources
aprado@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2450 1688
Senior Analyst: Banks
jcdominguez@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1026
Senior Analyst: Retail & Others
ibogarin@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 416 3333 Ext 33055
International Equity Sales
reneossa@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2651 9324
Head of Equity - Peru
rzavala@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 313 2918 Ext 36044
Head of International Equity Sales
jjimenez@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1701
Andrés Ossa
Sebastián Gallego
Tamara Vasquez
Christian Munchmeyer
Ursula Mitterhofer
Santiago Castro
Analyst: Utilities, Telecom & I.T.
aossa@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2651 9332
Analyst: Oil & Gas
sgallego@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1594
Research Assistant
tamaravasqueza@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 416 3333 Ext 37946
International Sales & Trading
cmunchmeyer@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2450 1613
Sales & Trading
umitterhofer@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 313 2918 Ext 32922
International Sales & Trading
scastro@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1344
Tomás Sanhueza
Carlos E. Rodriguez
Analyst: Food & Beverages, Healthcare
tsanhueza@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1751
Analyst: GEA & infrastructure
cerodriguez@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1365
Pilar González
FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING
Analyst: Transport
mpgonzalez@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1768
Felipe García
Lourdes Alamos
Head of Fixed Income
fgarcia@credicorpcapital.com
Research Coordinator & Holdings Analyst
lalamos@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2450 1609
FIXED INCOME & ECONOMICS RESEARCH
CHILE
COLOMBIA
PERU
Gonzalo Covarrubias
Carlos Sanchez
Alfredo Bejar
Head of Capital Markets
gcovarrubias@credicorpcapital.com
Head of Fixed Income
csanchez@credicorpcapital.com
Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading
alfredobejarg@credicorpcapital.com
CHILE
COLOMBIA
PERU
# (562) 2450 1635
# (571) 323 9154
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 36148
Paulina Yazigi
Daniel Velandia
Irvin León
Guido Riquelme
Christian Jarrin
Evangeline Arapoglou
Head of Research & Chief Economist
pyazigi@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2450 1637
Head of Research & Chief Economist
dvelandia@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1505
Senior Fixed Income Analyst
ileon@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 416 3333 Ext 37854
Head of Sales
griquelme@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1712
RM Fixed Income Offshore
cjarrin@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 340 2591
Senior International FI Trader
earapoglou@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Felipe Lubiano
Sergio Ferro
Alberto Zapata
Belén Larraín
Andrés Valderrama
Lizeth Espíritu
Senior Fixed Income Analyst
flubiano@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2651 9308
Fixed Income Analyst
sferro@credicorpcapita.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1609
Fixed Income Analyst
azapatag@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 205 9190 Ext 36018
Head of International FI Sales
blarrain@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1720
Fixed Income Trader
jvalderramma@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 323 9163
Fixed Income Trader
lespiritu@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 313 2902 - # (511) 313 2908
Paulina Valdivieso
Camilo A. Durán
Paz Stepke
José Andrés Riveros
Tatiana Dasso
Fixed Income Analyst
pvaldivieso@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2651 9337
Macro Analyst
caduran@credicorpcapital.com
# (5511) 339 4400 Ext. 1383
International Fixed Income Sales
pstepke@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2651 9336
Fixed Income Trader
jriveros@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1180
Fixed Income Trader
tdasso@credicorpcapital.com
# (511) 313 2902
Andrés Osorio
Benjamín Diaz
Economist
aosorio@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1760
Local Fixed Income Sales
bdiaz@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1738
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