kohc result review 9mfy15

[ Morning Report ]
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Market Overview
After witnessing positivity for straight 5 days market observed technical correction. The benchmark KSE-100 index closed down by 151.44 point to close at
31,600.73 points.
KOHC: Result Preview 9MFY15
The board of directors of Kohat Cement Limited (KOHC) is scheduled to meet on April
9, 2015 to announce the corporate results for the period ended Mar 31, 2015, following are the details.
Higher cost to drag profitability
Kohat cement likely to post decline in earnings by 12.3% as profit after taxation to
squeeze at Rs 2.13 billion (EPS: Rs 13.79) as compared to Rs 2.42 billion (EPS: Rs 15.72)
in 9MFY14. This is expected owing to reduction in volumetric sales and rise in electricity prices. In 3QFY15, profitability to trim by 20% YoY to Rs 764 million (EPS: Rs 4.95) in
3QFY15 versus Rs 955 million (EPS: Rs 6.18) in 3QFY14 due to closure of plant for 15
day in Jan'15 and higher electricity prices.
Lower dispatches to reduce revenue growth
Net sales is expected to drop by 4.4% YoY to Rs 8.76 billion in 9MFY15 versus Rs 9.16
billion in 9MFY14 mainly due to lower dispatches. We expect the volumetric sales of
the company to drop by 7% YoY to 1.28 million tons in 9MFY15 against 1.37 million
tons in 9MFY14 on account of closer of plant. Cost of sales of the company is expected to increase by 5% to Rs 5.64 billion compare to Rs 5.38 billion in 9MFY14 owing to
higher electricity charges.
Gross profit to decline by 18%
Gross profit likely to decrease by 18% to Rs 3.11 billion compared to Rs 3.78 billion in
9MFY14 likely due to higher electricity charges and lower cement sales. Gross margin
is expected to drop to 35.5% in 9MFY15 versus 41.3% recorded in 9MFY14.
Rs in million
Net Sales
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Selling & Distribution Exp
Administrative & General Exp
Other Operating Expenses
Other Income
Operating Profit
Finance Cost
Profit before Taxation
Taxation
Profit After Taxation
EPS (Rs)
Source: AZEE Research
9MFY15E
8,761
5,648
3,113
52
86
208
218
2,986
58
2,928
797
2,130
13.79
9MFY14A
9,162
5,381
3,782
61
79
241
174
3,575
126
3,449
1,020
2,429
15.72
YoY
-4.4%
5.0%
-17.7%
-15.0%
9.1%
-13.6%
25.7%
-16.5%
-53.7%
-15.1%
-21.9%
-12.3%
3QFY15E
2,855
1,774
1,081
18
29
70
99
1,063
16
1,047
283
764
4.95
3QFY14A
3,309
1,912
1,398
23
24
90
133
1,393
46
1,347
392
955
6.18
YoY
-13.7%
-7.2%
-22.7%
-23.5%
19.2%
-22.1%
-25.4%
-23.7%
-64.6%
-22.3%
-27.9%
-19.9%
News Update
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has said the government has taken measures to set the economy on
right track. He was talking to the Resident
Representative of International Monetary Fund
for Pakistan Tokhir Mirzoev in Islamabad on
Tuesday. Mirzoev has recently assumed responsibilities of his office in Pakistan. The Finance
Minister welcomed Tokhir Mirzoev to Pakistan
and exchanged views with him on the current
profile of Pakistan's economy and the forthcoming 7th IMF review. The senior IMF official said
the budget 2015-16 outlook and Pakistan's
efforts for revenue generation would be the
focal point of discussion in this review besides
the work done in the energy sector.
Pakistan's "macroeconomic picture is improving"
steadily and the country's GDP is projected to
grow by 4.3 per cent this year with further
expansion in growth expected next year and in
the medium-term, the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) said Tuesday. The real GDP is projected to grow by some 4.3 percent in FY2014/15,
driven mainly by the agriculture and construction sectors, the Fund said in a document, containing staff report and statement regarding
sixth review of the country's economic progress
under a 36-month and over $ 6 billion lending
programme agreed in September 2013.
Recommendation
At the current price level of Rs 184.97, the stock of Kohat Cement is offering an upside
potential of 7% to our DCF based December end 2015 target price of Rs 197/share.
NCCPL (U.S $ in million)
Portfolio Investment U.S $ in million)
FIPI (07-Apr-2015)
4.04
Local Companies (07-Apr-2015)
-1.22
Banks / DFI (07-Apr-2015)
-1.23
Mutual Funds (07-Apr-2015)
0.60
NBFC (07-Apr-2015)
3.31
Local Investors (07-Apr-2015)
-6.32
Other Organization (07-Apr-2015) 0.82
Yearly(Jul, 2014 up to 06-Apr-2015)
33.81
Monthly(Apr, 2015 up to 06-Apr-2015)
3.11
Daily (06-Apr-2015)
4.25
Total Portfolio Investment (20-Mar-2015) 5833
1
KSE Statistics
Indices
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
Turnover
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
April 7, 2015
22,400.15
19,983.57
31,600.73
249,669,580
106,439,600
199,597,460
[ Morning Report ]
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Pivot Analysis
Company
Board Meetings
CR
RSI
Buy 1
Buy 2
Sell 1
Sell 2
Pivot
Company
DATE
TIME
Kohat Cement Company Ltd
09-04-2015 11:00
KSE 100 INDEX
31600.73
48.24
31,462 31,323
31,795
31,989
31,656
Habib-ADM Ltd
10-04-2015 11:00
Attock Cement
199.15
61.45
194.10 189.10
202.05
205.00
197.05
Saif Power Ltd
14-04-2015 11:00
Adamjee Insurance
46.92
51.26
46.30
45.65
47.80
48.65
47.15
Dynea Pak Ltd
15-04-2015
3:00
Unilever Pak Foods Ltd
17-04-2015
3:00
Askari Bank
19.24
44.16
19.00
18.70
19.45
19.65
19.20
Kot Addu. Power Co. Ltd
22-04-2015
2:00
Azgard Nine
4.69
48.45
4.55
4.40
4.80
4.95
4.65
Attock Petroleum
545.95
55.75
538.95 532.00
556.45
567.00
549.50
Key Data
Attock Refinery
180.40
57.27
177.95 175.45
182.95
185.45
180.45
Money Market
Bank Al-Falah
26.00
35.44
25.65
25.25
26.60
27.25
26.25
BankIslami Pak
9.40
49.40
9.30
9.20
9.50
9.60
9.40
Bank.Of.Punjab
8.16
35.99
8.05
7.95
8.30
8.45
8.20
Fauji Cement
31.20
55.55
30.80
30.35
31.65
32.10
31.25
Fauji Fert Bin
50.45
51.29
49.90
49.35
51.35
52.25
50.80
Fauji Fertilizer
135.94
50.65
134.60 133.25
137.95
139.95
Habib Bank Ltd
175.41
35.86
174.35 173.25
177.15
Hub Power
87.30
50.04
86.45
ICI Pakistan
407.44
44.90
395.65 383.90
Jah Siddiq Co
20.54
44.21
Lucky Cement
468.87
MCB Bank Ltd
T-Bills (3 Mths)
01-Apr-2015
7.96%
T-Bills (6 Mths)
01-Apr-2015
7.94%
T-Bills (12 Mths)
01-Apr-2015
7.84%
Discount Rate
21-Mar-2015
8.00%
Kibor (1 Mth)
07-Apr-2015
7.91%
Kibor (3 Mths)
07-Apr-2015
7.98%
Kibor (6 Mths)
07-Apr-2015
8.00%
136.60
Kibor (9 Mths)
07-Apr-2015
8.24%
178.85
176.05
Kibor (1 Yr)
07-Apr-2015
8.25%
87.75
88.25
87.35
P.I.B (3 Yrs)
07-Apr-2015
8.20%
P.I.B (5 Yrs)
07-Apr-2015
8.65%
415.05
422.70
403.30
P.I.B (10 Yrs)
07-Apr-2015
9.46%
19.50
20.80
21.05
20.30
P.I.B (15 Yrs)
07-Apr-2015
10.10%
46.32
463.25 457.65
477.25
485.60
471.60
P.I.B (20 Yrs)
07-Apr-2015
10.50%
258.88
42.32
257.25 255.65
260.75
262.60
259.10
P.I.B (30 Yrs)
07-Apr-2015
11.00%
Maple Leaf Cement
58.85
65.15
56.40
53.95
60.70
62.55
58.25
National Bank
57.02
44.94
56.10
55.15
57.90
58.80
57.00
1.88
39.19
1.80
1.75
1.90
1.95
1.85
Oil & Gas Dev. XD
174.37
27.22
172.65 170.95
176.80
179.20
175.05
P.S.O. XD
362.52
48.03
358.40 354.25
367.35
372.15
363.20
24.12
49.23
25.10
26.05
24.45
NIB Bank
Sui North Gas
86.85
20.00
23.45
22.80
CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI.
RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70
Indicate overbought position.
2
Commodities
Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl
Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl
Cotton $/lb
Gold $/ozs
Silver $/ozs
Malaysian Palm $
GOLD (PMEX) PKR
KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR
58.45
53.02
65.78
1,212.05
16.84
608
39,946
5,519
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
MTS Leverage Position
Unrel Volume
7-Apr-15
6-Apr-15
Chg DoD %
Symbol
AHCL
AICL
AKBL
ATRL
BAFL
BAHL
BOP
CHCC
DGKC
EFERT
EFOODS
ENGRO
FABL
FATIMA
FCCL
FFBL
FFC
GATM
HUBC
KEL
LPCL
LUCK
MLCF
NBP
NCL
NML
OGDC
PAEL
PIOC
PKGP
PPL
PSO
PTC
SEARL
SNGP
SSGC
UBL
TOTAL
Unrel Value
60,047,600 2,810,679,909
59,297,900 2,827,969,357
1.26%
-0.61%
Unrel Volume
Unrel Value
412,000
10,704,117
683,900
22,973,234
691,000
10,491,121
129,200
17,204,488
1,689,000
36,962,398
123,000
4,408,688
8,145,300
52,290,122
412,000
26,101,775
1,332,500
137,191,258
274,000
18,851,961
1,302,400
130,316,906
1,989,000
421,539,497
452,500
5,492,811
5,939,000
186,067,081
5,309,500
136,414,718
1,520,000
63,936,437
217,300
24,778,717
32,000
1,373,901
1,323,000
93,268,434
4,203,500
24,116,540
796,000
10,181,562
163,400
63,213,772
837,000
36,626,313
640,000
28,226,039
1,382,500
44,418,748
574,000
50,903,416
62,200
9,147,707
2,366,500
95,563,515
385,500
25,894,551
733,000
16,827,147
587,700
75,032,776
671,100
192,417,359
1,252,500
22,617,543
44,000
7,893,350
2,427,000
46,637,652
7,527,000
231,672,502
3,418,100
428,921,752
60,047,600 2,810,679,909
MTS Volume
8,446,000
8,888,300
-4.98%
MTS Volume
46,700
970,500
6,500
28,500
180,000
31,500
293,500
32,500
441,700
17,000
267,000
782,500
480,500
91,200
208,000
100,500
48,000
13,500
1,814,500
56,000
73,000
33,200
94,200
903,000
45,800
55,100
257,500
23,500
312,000
734,500
4,100
8,446,000
MTS Value
406,740,067
444,295,115
-8.45%
MTS Value
1,870,547
15,884,767
997,630
627,621
1,250,441
2,102,508
30,567,647
2,326,736
48,654,034
216,543
8,992,266
20,692,736
20,570,557
10,538,207
15,407,657
643,459
634,897
5,378,627
90,454,157
2,714,548
2,560,332
3,105,163
14,016,590
42,974,433
6,132,508
16,983,940
5,175,805
4,665,529
6,347,382
23,719,408
533,391
406,740,067
Total Volume
68,493,600
68,186,200
0.45%
Total Volume
412,000
730,600
1,661,500
135,700
1,717,500
123,000
8,325,300
443,500
1,626,000
306,500
1,744,100
1,989,000
469,500
6,206,000
6,092,000
2,000,500
308,500
32,000
1,531,000
4,304,000
844,000
176,900
2,651,500
696,000
1,455,500
607,200
156,400
3,269,500
385,500
733,000
633,500
726,200
1,510,000
67,500
2,739,000
8,261,500
3,422,200
68,493,600
Total Value
MTS Rate
3,217,419,976
3,272,264,471
-1.68%
11.53
11.57
-4 bps
Total Value
MTS Rate
10,704,117
24,843,781
26,375,887
18,202,119
37,590,018
4,408,688
53,540,563
28,204,283
167,758,905
21,178,697
178,970,940
421,539,497
5,709,354
195,059,348
157,107,454
84,506,994
35,316,923
1,373,901
108,676,092
24,759,999
10,816,458
68,592,399
127,080,470
30,940,587
46,979,081
54,008,579
23,164,297
138,537,949
25,894,551
16,827,147
81,165,284
209,401,299
27,793,348
12,558,879
52,985,034
255,391,910
429,455,144
3,217,419,976
11.60
11.50
13.47
11.22
12.48
11.64
11.29
11.18
11.36
14.00
11.25
11.07
11.31
11.22
11.48
11.90
12.65
11.23
11.50
11.74
10.98
11.32
11.31
12.49
11.19
11.31
11.30
13.81
11.66
11.31
12.73
11.53
CORPORATE OFFICE.
Suite # 208 2nd floor, Business & Finance Centre,
Main I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi, Pakistan.
Tel: 111-293-293, 021-2467131-40
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Risk Disclosure
This report has been prepared by AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited and the information contained in the Product is
intended solely for the recipient or attached skilled individuals of the firm. The Firm accepts no liability whatsoever
for the actions of individual, collateral or third parties in all over Pakistan and abroad as well. This report is provided solely for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions
without undue reliance on this report and AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any
direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report contents. All rights reserved. The material
contained in this report is based on data obtained from sources we deem to be reliable and without prior written
permission this information is provided on an "as is" basis.
3
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Exchange Road, Karachi – 74000, Pakistan.
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