EU INDC and EU view on the 2015 agreement

EU INDC and EU view on the 2015 agreement
Mr Zsolt Lengyel, Team Leader & Key Expert
24 April 2015, Kyiv
“Discussion on participation of Ukraine in the 2015 Global Climate
Change Agreement with a focus on Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDC) in Ukraine” roundtable
Content of presentation
1. The foundations of EU climate and
energy policy
2. The process and politics of setting a
long term target through the EU 2030 Climate
and Energy package
3. Communicating and finalizing the EU's 2030
target as an INDC under the 2015 Agreement
The mitigation context –
Limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius
EU climate and energy policy up to 2020:
Greenhouse gas emissions since 1990
5.800
CP1 C.sinks
5.600
CP1 Kyoto
Mechanisms
5.400
Overachievement CP1:
4.3 GtCO2 eq
5.000
4.800
Potential
Overachievement CP2:
4.600
1.5 GtCO2 eq
4.400
Total :
4.200
5.8 GtCO2 eq
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
4.000
KP BY
Mt CO2 equivalent
5.200
EU-28 +IS historic emissions
EU-28 projections With Existing Measures
estimated overachievement compared to target 2013-20
Target for the 1st commitment period (2008–2012)
Target for the 2nd commitment period (2013–2020)
Successful decoupling of
economic growth and GHG emissions (1)*
Over the period 1990-2012, the combined GDP of the EU
and Iceland grew by more than 44%, while GHG emissions
decreased by 19%. As a result, the combined greenhouse
gas emission emission intensity of the EU and Icelandic
economies, was reduced by almost half between 1990 and
2012.
Decoupling between emission and growth occurred in all
Member States and in Iceland. Decoupling has progressed
steadily since 1990. The annual reduction rate per Member
State varied between 0.9% and 5.1% per year. As a result,
the EU GHG emission intensity is one of the lowest among
major economies in the world.
* Source:
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/docs/e
u_submission_20140430_technical_annex_en.pdf
Successful decoupling of
economic growth and GHG emissions (2)
Recent analysis shows that structural policies implemented in
the field of climate and energy (in particular policies resulting
in improvements in energy intensity of the economy and a
higher share of renewables) have contributed more than half
of the EU emission reduction between 2008 and 2012. The
economic crisis has contributed less than half of the reduction
during this period.
In 2012, in the EU-28 and Iceland, total greenhouse gas
emissions per capita were at the level of 9 tonnes CO2-eq,
and decreased by 24% compared to 1990, down from 12
tonnes CO2-eq. 24 Member States and Iceland experienced a
reduction in per capita emissions between 1990 and 2012.
2030 Framework: Agreed headline targets
2030 Framework for Climate and Energy
2020
2030
-20 %
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
20%
Renewable
Energy
 - 40 %
Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
27 %
Renewable
Energy
20 %
Energy
Efficiency
10 %
Interconnection
 27%*
Energy Efficiency
* To be reviewed by 2020,
having in mind an EU level of
30%
New governance system + indicators
15 %
Interconnection
Emission reductions in ETS and non-ETS
The European carbon market after 2020
Well-functioning reformed EU ETS as the main instrument
Cap to decline with 2.2 % from 2021 onwards
Free allocation to prevent carbon leakage continued
Redistribution: 90 % among all 28 Member States / 10 % among lower
income Member States
Innovation fund created ("NER400")
Modernisation fund set up
INDCs and the Lima Call for Climate Action
From nationally determined to collectively ambitious
and individually fair – well in advance of Paris
Clarity
Fairness
•INDC content is nationally determined
•In a manner that facilitates the clarity,
transparency and understanding
•To be accompanied by upfront
information: detailed and quantifiable
•May also contain an adaptation
component
•No finance or support component (no
constraint on conditionality)
•The least developed countries and small
island developing States may
communicate strategies, plans and actions
(rather than targets)
•Upfront information to describe how
Parties consider their contributions fair
and ambitious
•Support available for preparation of
INDCs
Ambition
•INDCs to contribute towards achieving the
objective of the Convention a
"progression beyond current
undertaking"
•Parties invited again to communicate
INDCs "well in advance of" Paris
•Multiple discussions to be expected in
different context thanks to transparency
of INDCs
•UNFCCC Sec to prepare synthesis report
on the aggregate effect of INDCs by 1
November 2015
• Success of Paris will hinge on a critical mass of clear, ambitious, timely contributions
• UNFCCC Sec Synthesis will help set the stage for Paris
How to contact us
The project team can be contacted at personal e-mail addresses
(zsolt.lengyel [ at ] climaeast.eu, marzena.chodor [at] climaeast.eu
vladyslav.zhezherin [ at ] climaeast.eu) and :
info@climaeast.eu
Clima East Office
c/o Milieu Ltd
Chaussée de Charleroi No. 112, First Floor
1060 Brussels (Belgium)
Tel: +32 2506 1000
Website:
English: www.climaeast.eu
Russian: http://russian.climaeast.eu/