Braveheart`s Best(c)
Transcription
Braveheart`s Best(c)
June 15, 2015 A Sharekhan commodity research newsletter Gold: Bearish stance 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 Weekly close: $1,180 Last week gold saw buying emerge at lower levels and as a result it ended the week on a positive note. On the way up it had faced resistance at the 20- and 40-day moving average and has been unable to surpass that. The Bollinger bands are witnessing contraction indicating consolidation. The daily momentum indicator has triggered a positive crossover which is a bullish sign. Our sense is that the current rise that it is witnessing is just a retracement of the fall and once the retracement is over the next wave on the downside should resume. Thus, we continue to maintain our negative stance on gold for the targets of $1,142 which is the swing low it touched in March earlier this year and below that we expect the level of $1,100 which is the equality target of the previous wave. Traders should keep a stop loss of $1,205 for the short positions. Trend Trend Reversal Supports Down $1,205 $1,142/1,100 Resistances Target $1,192/1,205 $1,100 1370 1360 1350 100.0% 1340 ii 1330 B or 2 1320 1310 1300 78.6% 1290 1280 i 1270 iv 1260 1250 1240 D 1230 1220 1210 1205 1200 1190 1180 iii 1170 1160 1150 1142 1140 0.0% 1130 A or 1 1120 1110 1100 1100 1090 May June July August September October November December 2015 February March April May June July August Silver: Drifting lower 10 5 Weekly close: $15.92 0 -5 Last week silver continued to drift lower and has ended the week on a negative note. It saw some buying emerge from the lower end of the channel however, not very significant and the bounce was also sold into. The daily and weekly momentum indicators are bearing a negative crossover and the price pattern also does not suggest trend reversal. Thus, we continue to maintain our negative stance on silver for targets of $15.26 and $14.4 which are crucial swing lows. Traders should keep a stop loss of $17.15 for the short positions. 19.5 19.0 18.5 17.5 17.15 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.26 15.0 Trend Reversal Supports Resistances Target Down $17.15 $15.26/14.4 $16.6/17.15 $14.4 14.5 14.4 w 14.0 29 6 13 October Trend 18.0 x 20 27 3 10 17 November 24 1 8 15 December 22 29 5 12 2015 19 26 2 9 16 February 23 2 9 March 16 23 30 6 April 13 20 27 4 11 May 18 25 1 8 June 15 22 29 6 July 13 2 For Private Circulation only REGISTRATION DETAILS Regd Add: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos. BSE - INB/INF011073351 ; BSE- CD ; NSE- INB/INF231073330 ; CD-INE231073330 ; MCX Stock Exchange - INB/INF261073333 ; CD-INE261073330 ; DP - NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003 ; CDSL-IN-DPCDSL-271-2004 ; PMS-INP000000662 ; Mutual Fund-ARN 20669 ; Commodity trading through Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-10080 ; (MCX/TCM/ CORP/0425) ; NCDEX-00132 ; (NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0142) ; NCDEX SPOT-NCDEXSPOT/116/CO/11/20626 ; For any complaints email at igc@sharekhan.com; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Do’s & Don’ts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on www.sharekhan.com before investing. Sharekhan Braveheart’s Best (Commodities) Copper: Melting down 5 Weekly close: $2.67 0 -5 Last week copper did see a retracement after a five-wave decline however, the retracement was arrested near the 20- and 40-day moving average. It saw a sharp decline from that resistance and has also broken the low of the previous five-wave decline which indicates that the next wave on the downside has started. The daily momentum indicator is bearing a positive crossover however, the price structure does not suggest taking a long position. The overall trend for copper shall remain negative and hence we maintain our negative stance on copper for the targets of $2.62 and $2.55. A stop loss should be placed at $2.77, which is the high it had touched last week. Trend Trend Reversal Supports Resistances Target Down $2.77 $2.62/2.55 $2.77/2.81 $2.55 3.15 3.10 3.05 3.00 0.0% 2.95 2.90 2.85 2.81 2.80 2.75 2.70 2.65 61.8% 2.62 2.60 2.55 2.55 2.50 2.45 100.0% 2.40 2.35 8 ecember 15 22 29 5 2015 12 20 26 2 9 February 17 23 2 9 March 16 23 30 6 April 13 20 27 4 May 11 18 26 1 8 June 15 22 29 6 13 2 July Crude oil: Consolidating in a range 10 Weekly close: $59.96 5 0 -5 Last week crude oil held on to the 40-day moving average and ended the week on a positive note. It is still trading within the range of $62.58–56.00. Unless it gives a clear breakout of the range on either side the consolidation can continue. The daily momentum indicator is bearing a positive crossover. We expect this sideways consolidation to break on the upside and hence we continue to maintain our positive stance on crude oil for the targets of $62.58, which is the recent swing high and above that we expect $64, which is the 40-week moving average. Traders should keep a stop loss of $56.8, which is the low it touched in the last week for the long positions. Trend Up Trend Reversal Supports Resistances Target $56.8 $59.4/58.2 $62.6/64.0 $64.0 For Private Circulation only Braveheart’s Best (Commodities) -10 64 v 62.6 0.0% 63 62 61 iii 60 iii 59 iv iii 23.6% 58 57 56.8 56 iv i 38.2% 55 iv 54 i 53 52 i 51 50 ii 49 48 ii 47 ii 46 45 44 43 100.0% 42 41 17 2 23 2 March 9 June 15, 2015 16 23 30 6 April 13 20 27 4 May 11 18 26 1 June 8 15 22 2 Home Sharekhan Braveheart’s Best (Commodities) Jeera: Bearish stance 30 25 20 Weekly close: Rs16,580 The adjoining is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera. Last week jeera saw a follow-through of the fall and has resulted in a weekly negative close. It has reached the lower end of the channel and also the 20-week moving average and therefore seen a bounce. However, our sense is that it is just a bounce and this bounce should be sold into. The weekly momentum indicator is bearing a negative crossover indicating bearishness. On the daily charts the fall from the high of Rs18,930 to the low of Rs15,860 is a five-wave decline and hence we can conclude that the current bounce is just a retracement of the fall and once this retracement is over the next leg on the downside should resume. Thus, we continue to maintain our negative stance on jeera for the target of Rs14,380, which is the crucial support in the form of 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders should keep a stop loss of Rs18,930 for the short positions. 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 20000 19500 19000 18500 18000 17500 18930 v 0.0% iii 3 17000 iv 16500 i 16000 15500 38.2% 15000 14500 50.0% 14380 ii 14000 13500 61.8% 4 13000 12500 12000 1 11500 11000 10500 2 10000 100.0% 9500 9000 8500 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Trend Trend Reversal Supports Down Rs18,930 Rs15,860/ Rs14,380 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May J Resistances Target Rs18,185/ Rs18,930 Rs14,380 Soya bean: Sell on rises 20 15 Weekly close: Rs3,770 10 5 0 -5 -10 The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean. Last week the bulls were unable to defend the crucial support of the 40-day moving average and as a result it has seen a sharp fall. The weekly momentum indicator has also triggered a negative crossover. In the daily charts it is trading below the 20- and 40-day moving average, indicating bearishness. It is trading along the daily lower Bollinger band which is expanding, indicating that the current fall shall continue. Considering all the above factors we change our view on soya bean to negative for the target of Rs3,330. Traders should adopt a strategy of sell on rises to trade in this agricultural commodity to have a good risk-reward ratio. Traders should keep a stop loss of Rs4,160 which is the high of the penultimate week for the short positions. Trend Trend Reversal Supports Resistances Target Down Rs4,160 Rs3,511/ Rs3,330 Rs3,960/ Rs4,160 Rs3,330 For Private Circulation only Braveheart’s Best (Commodities) -15 -20 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 100.0% 78.6% 4300 4200 4100 4160 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3330 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 0.0% 2800 2700 2600 Mar 3 Apr May Jun Jul Aug June 15, 2015 Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Home Sharekhan Braveheart’s Best (Commodities) For Private Circulation only Visit us at www.sharekhan.com Home "This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed to and may contain confidential and/or privileged material and is not for any type of circulation. Any review, retransmission, or any other use is prohibited. Kindly note that this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. If you have received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material immediately from your computer/mailbox. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have positions in, or options on, and buy June 15, 2015banking, or other services for, any company mentioned. Any and sell securities referred to herein. to time solicit Best from, or4 perform investment For Private Circulation only We may from time Braveheart’s Home comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd." (Commodities)