Hart Research

TO:
Interested Parties
FROM: Geoff Garin
DATE:
April 10, 2015
RE:
Voters Do Not Want Congress to Block the Iran Nuclear Agreement
From April 6 to 8, 2015, Hart Research Associates surveyed a representative
national cross section of 806 registered voters regarding the recently negotiated
framework agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program.
The interviews were
conducted on both landline and cellular telephones. The statistical margin of error
associated with a sample of this size is ±3.5 percentage points.
This memorandum summarizes the key survey findings.
(1)
A large majority of voters are favorable toward the Iran nuclear
agreement after hearing a short description of its basic elements.
Respondents were read the following description of the agreement:
This agreement places limits on Iran's nuclear program that would prevent
Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. It caps the level to which Iran can
enrich uranium to far below what is necessary to make a nuclear weapon.
The agreement also significantly reduces Iran's uranium and plutonium
production capabilities. Under the agreement, Iran will submit to intrusive,
short-notice inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In return
for limiting its nuclear program, Iran would receive gradual relief from US
and international economic sanctions, as long as it complies with the terms of
the agreement. Once in effect, the main provisions of the agreement last for
10 to 25 years.
Overall, 61% say they favor the agreement (28% strongly favor, 33%
somewhat favor), while 34% say they oppose the agreement. Majorities of
Democrats and independents favor the agreement, while a smaller majority
of Republicans oppose it.
Favor
%
Oppose
%
61
34
Democrats
81
16
Independents
58
35
Republicans
41
52
All voters
Voters who report that they already were familiar with the agreement prior
to being interviewed favor the agreement by 58% to 39%.
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Hart Research Associates
(2)
From the voters’ perspective, the most important elements of the
agreement relate to the inspection and verification provisions.
Respondents were asked to rate their reaction to six specific aspects of the
framework agreement. While clear majorities of voters view each of the
elements favorably, two aspects of the agreement particularly stand out.
(3)

The agreement allows for intrusive, short-notice inspections and
monitoring of Iran's compliance with the agreement by the International
Atomic Energy Agency, and would result in expanded access to Iranian
sites by international inspectors (69% favorable, including 44% very
favorable).

The strong inspection system means that if Iran violates the agreement,
inspectors will find out, and decisive action against Iran—including strong
international economic sanctions—can be taken quickly (74% favorable,
including 53% very favorable).
By a large and decisive margin, voters want Congress to allow the
agreement to go forward and closely monitor its implementation,
rather than take action now to block the agreement and prevent it
from being implemented.
Fully 65% of voters say the better course for Congress would be to allow the
agreement to go forward and closely monitor its implementation. Only 30%
want Congress to block the agreement and prevent its implementation.
Large majorities of both Democrats and independents want to allow the
agreement to move forward, while Republicans are divided on the question.
Allow Agreement to
Go Forward
%
Block Agreement and
Prevent Implementation
%
65
30
Democrats
82
15
Independents
64
27
Republicans
47
48
All voters
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Hart Research Associates
(4)
Voters continue to support the agreement after hearing what
opponents and supporters say about it, demonstrating an important
degree of durability and depth to the support measured in earlier
questions.
Respondents heard the following statements from opponents and supporters
of the Iran nuclear agreement:
Opponents of the agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program say it is not
strong enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons because it
only scales back Iran's nuclear program rather than ending it, and because
the deal is not permanent. These opponents say Congress should take action
to block the agreement, and that Congress should instead impose more
economic sanctions until Iran makes more concessions on its nuclear
program.
Supporters of the agreement say it is the best and most realistic way to
prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The deal will make the
United States and its allies safer because it cuts off Iran's pathways to
nuclear weapons. The only real alternative to this agreement would be
military action and American involvement in another Middle Eastern war.
These supporters say that Congress should allow the agreement to go
forward and then closely monitor its implementation.
After hearing what both sides have to say about the agreement, 57% of
voters say they agree more with the supporters and 38% say they agree
more with the opponents.
Airing the viewpoints of the two sides does not have a significant impact on
the positions of either Democratic voters (79% agree with supporters, 17%
agree with opponents) or independents (55% agree with supporters, 38%
agree with opponents), while Republican voters become somewhat more
polarized against the agreement (36% agree more with the supporters, 59%
agree more with the opponents).
This poll was commissioned by Americans United for Change.
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