Downtown Market Study

Transcription

FINAL REPORT
January 19, 2004
(revised February 24, 2004)
Downtown Market Study
Prepared for:
The City of Grayling and Crawford Co.
In collaboration with:
Gosling Czubak Engineering Sciences
Prepared by:
Sharon M. Vokes
Director of Research & Analysis
Christine A. LeNet
Senior Analyst
Vladimir Hlasny
Associate Analyst
Anderson Economic Group • www.AndersonEconomicGroup.com
615 W. Ionia Street • Lansing, MI 48933-1104 • Tel: (517) 374-2596 • Fax: (517) 487-9097
Crawford Co. / City of Grayling Downtown Market Study
Anderson Economic Group
1.0 Executive Summary............................................................. 1
2.0 Background and Study Purpose ........................................ 8
3.0 Market Overview............................................................... 11
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
Introduction ........................................................................ 11
Crawford County Overview ............................................... 11
Crawford County Parameters - Population and Income ..... 12
The Region - Demographic Comparisons .......................... 14
Effective Trade Area for Downtown Grayling ................... 19
Demographic Comparison - City of Grayling Trade Areas 22
4.0 Housing Assessment .......................................................... 25
5.0 Economic Assessment........................................................ 30
5.1 Crawford County - Overview ............................................. 30
5.2 Crawford County - Major Employers ................................ 31
5.3 Crawford County - Labor Force Trends ............................. 34
5.4 Crawford County - Employment Status ............................. 37
5.5 Crawford County - Educational Attainment ...................... 38
5.6 Crawford County - Industry Sectors .................................. 40
5.7 Crawford County - Industrial Parks ................................... 47
6.0 Tourism and Marketing.................................................... 48
6.1
6.2
6.3
Introduction ........................................................................ 48
Crawford County - Visitor Contributions .......................... 51
Community and Marketing Recommendations .................. 52
7.0 Retail Feasibility Study ..................................................... 56
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.10
The Region - Competing Shopping Destinations ............... 56
Grayling Trade Area - Retail Supply ................................. 61
Supply / Demand Analysis - Methodology & Approach ... 63
Crawford County - Import / Export Analysis ..................... 66
Downtown Grayling - Retail Supply .................................. 68
Downtown Grayling - Development Sites ......................... 78
City of Grayling - Results for 4 Scenarios ......................... 83
City of Grayling - Summary Recommendations ................ 85
Downtown Grayling - Retail Recommendations ............... 87
Vision Planning - Guiding Principles ................................. 89
Crawford Co. / City of Grayling - Executive Summary
1.0 Executive Summary
With a grant from the Michigan Economic Development Corporation and cost sharing
with Crawford County, the City of Grayling has hired Gosling Czubak Engineering Sciences to conduct a comprehensive Economic and Market Feasibility Analysis. Anderson Economic Group has been subcontracted by Gosling Czubak to conduct this
Downtown Market Study, which focuses on downtown Grayling and its development
potential for retail, housing and civic space, and also includes a county-wide economic
assessment.
Our objective is to guide future planning and development in downtown Grayling, creating a destination for merchants, businesses, residents and shoppers, and creating a
true “sense of place.” Our analyses, conclusions and recommendations are summarized in this report, which is organized by subject matter as follows:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Executive Summary
Introduction and Study Purpose
Market Overview
Housing Assessment
Economic Assessment
Tourism and Marketing
Retail Feasibility Study
These analyses were used to develop planning recommendations for the City of Grayling, which is displayed in the aerial photograph on the following page.
Anderson Economic Group, LLC
1
FIGURE 1.
Aerial Photo of the City of Grayling, Michigan
Provided by the City of Grayling, Crawford County and Gosling Czubak Engineering Sciences.
Demographic Summary: Compared to other counties within its competitive region,
which includes Grand Traverse, Otsego (Gaylord), Ogemaw (West Branch), Roscommon and Kalkaska Counties, Crawford County has a relatively small population
(14,611 residents in 2002). The county also has a low average household income of
$44,238, compared to $60,217 for the State of Michigan.
2
Economic Summary: Crawford County has a relatively low labor force for its market
size, with potential to add up to 1,000 people, and particularly in professional and
white-collar occupations. The county also has a high unemployment rate of 8.5 percent
in 2003, and appears to be approaching the levels realized in Roscommon, Ogemaw and
Kalkaska Counties over time (between 8.5 and 9.4 percent in 2002). In comparison,
unemployment for the State of Michigan is currently 6.5 percent.
Crawford County’s single largest employer is Mercy Hospital with 468 employees, followed by Crawford Au Sable Schools (248 employees), Camp Grayling (214), and the
Nursing Home Group (200). The largest manufacturing firm is Weyerhaeuser Structurewood with 185 employees, in fifth place after a number of non-manufacturing
employers in the medical, educational, and defense sectors.
Retail Trade Industry Summary. Across industry sectors, about 70 percent of Crawford County employees are in the Retail Trade, Finance / Insurance / Real Estate and
Services sectors, which is considerably higher than Kalkaska County (46.4%), and
higher even than Ogemaw (68.5%) and Otsego (59.6%) Counties. Since 1993, employment in the retail trade sector has consistently declined as a share of total employment
over time, which indicates a current opportunity.
3
Visitor Summary: Crawford County offers 55 attractions, events and recreational
resources, and benefits from an estimated 480,372 visitor and tourist nights each year.
This is higher than Roscommon County (323,353) and Ogemaw (237,681), but only
half that of Otsego County (984,372). These visitors spent a total of $20.7 million in
retail expenditures in Crawford County. About half was spent on conventional retail
stores, including hotels and motels, restaurants, gas stations and convenience stores,
and the remainder was spent on fees at attractions and campgrounds.
Retail Supply Summary: Unlike many other small markets, the City of Grayling has
not yet been impacted by big-box retailers like discount, membership warehouse, and
home improvement mega-stores. The community has a relatively small Kmart store
with about 55,200 square feet, which has not quite met the expectations of local shoppers. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart and Meijer appear to be interested in the market, and one
of these discounters is expected to open by 2007. The size of this new store, merchandise mix, and speculation about the future of the dated Kmart store, have direct bearing
on the supportability of new retail space in downtown Grayling.
Import / Export Summary: Based on retail expenditure patterns, Crawford County
has a net export of 28.2 percent, which is higher than any other county in the competitive region, including Ogemaw (3.2% net export), Roscommon (12.2%), and Kalkaska
(22.9%) counties. The 28.2 percent net export figure includes total exports estimated to
total $75 million, and imports totalling $9.3 million. Retail expenditures within the
county can be increased both by reducing resident exports, and by improving visitor
imports.
Supply / Demand Summary. Within the City of Grayling, the market supply is at its
capacity in a number of retail categories, particularly restaurants, convenience stores /
gas stations, grocery, auto repair and supply, hotel / motel accommodations and gifts /
novelty / souvenir. However, the demand analysis indicates support for some space in
fashion apparel, furniture and home decor, office supplies, books, hobby / craft and discount / general merchandise.
Based on the results of our quantitative supply and demand analysis, the amount of
additional retail space that is supportable within the City of Grayling may reach a maximum of 165,000 square feet through 2010, depending upon the success of revitalization programs within the DDA District and along Michigan Avenue. After adjusting
for a larger discount department store (Wal-Mart or Meijer) and additional space in
home improvement / lumber category, this is reduced to 110,000 gross square feet, of
which 100% should be located within Uptown Grayling (Michigan Avenue) and in the
immediate vicinity.
4
These figures represent the best-case scenario, and would be reduced by as much as 50
percent if Michigan Avenue is not revitalized, or if developments along Norway Street,
North James Street and on the Bear Archery and County Complex parcels are not
designed with connectivity and synergies to Michigan Avenue.
Summary Map 1: City of Grayling, MI: Downtown Development Sites
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Source: Anderson Economic Group
Data: Applied Geographic Solutions
Date: 21-Feb, 2004
www.AndersonEconomicGroup.com
5
Detailed Retail Results. As shown in the summary table below, our supply / demand
and opportunity analyses indicate support for additional retail space which should
include fashion family apparel, a food supplement store, beauty supply (but not just
another salon), furniture and home furnishings / decor, book store, hobby shop like
model trains / sports memorabilia / comics (but not craft supplies or fabric), an office
supply store, and a pet supply store.
TABLE 1.
Summary of Best-Case Scenario for Downtown Grayling
Scenario 4: Allocation of Space
Repair & Maintenance
1 Auto Repair & Maintenance
Retain Co. Complex downtown
Best Case Scenario (Sc. 4)
2002
2007
2010
Max. New Max. New Max. New
Space
Space
Space
Sample Shops and Tenants
--0
--
Sector
---
---
……………………………………………
……………………………………………
…………
…………
2
3
Personal Care & Laundry
Personal Care Services
Drycleaning & Laundry
-1,000
--1,000
--1,000
……………………………………………
……………………………………………
Shoe Repair, Tailor, Seamstress
…………
…………
ancillary
4
5
Accommodation & Food Service
Accommodation
Foodservice & Drinking
--4,000
--4,000
--4,000
……………………………………………
Limited opportunity; high vacancy rates.
Quality restaurants are under-represented.
…………
ancillary
riverfront
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Retail Trade (selected categories)
Motor vehicle parts/dealers
Furniture / Home Furnishings
Electronics / Appliances
Building / Garden Supply
Food and Beverage
Health / Personal Care
Gas Stations
Clothing / Clothing Access.
Sporting Goods / Hobby / Book
General Merch. / Discount
Miscellaneous
Other miscellaneous
--11,000
24,000
15,000
-2,000
-18,000
17,000
35,000
-5,000
0
2,000
--12,000
26,000
15,000
-2,000
-20,000
19,000
40,000
-6,000
……………………………………………
……………………………………………
Drapery/Blinds; Home Décor; Great Northern Furn.
Rental Office Equipment & Appliances
relocation of DuBois Lumber is recommended
……………………………………………
Food Supplement, Ulta 3 Beauty Supply, Body Shop
……………………………………………
Outlet Brand Names, Juniors, Urban, Shoes
Book Store, Sports Memorabilia / Comics / Models
Discount OR JCPenney / Marshall's
Office Supplies are under-represented.
Pets and Pet Supplies are under-represented.
…………
…………
ancillary
Uptown
Uptown
…………
Uptown
…………
Uptown
Uptown
Uptown
Uptown
Uptown
18 Real Estate
--8,000
20,000
13,000
-2,000
-15,000
14,000
35,000
-4,000
0
2,000
2,000
Downtown Real Estate Office
ancillary
19 Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
0
12,000
0
16,000
18,000
ancillary
ancillary
0
130,000
0
150,000
165,000
Expanded and Relocated Bowling Alley
Expanded and Relocated Rialto Cinema
i
d d
Total Categories
The supply / demand analysis indicates limited support for additional retail space in the
food service category, but a lack of quality restaurants. Despite the popular appeal of
eateries like Spike’s Tavern and the Grayling Restaurant, focus group respondents consistently requested a better restaurant, indicating that they have “traded down” due to
limited options. To address this demand, we recommend that one new restaurant locate
on the Au Sable River, with up to 4,000 square feet of space.
6
In evaluating and qualifying the results of the supply / demand analysis, we have also
identified a number of planning considerations that should be incorporated into the
downtown’s vision. These are summarized below as Ten Guiding Principles, and have
also been addressed during a visioning session conducted by Gosling Czubak Engineering Sciences in January 2004. A detailed discussion of each is also provided in the
Retail Analysis chapter of this report.
Guiding Principles
9.
Merchandise mix should meet expectations of local residents first, visitors second.
Address Michigan Avenue first and ancillary corridors (James, Norway) second.
This includes converting at least one vacant building on Michigan Avenue into an
enclosed pedestrian mall with business incubator space.
Strive for retail synergies and connectivity, and avoid fragmentation.
Traditional merchant space along main street is for conventional retail tenants.
Services should be in ancillary locations which complement main street.
Redevelop the county complex property, and retain county functions downtown.
Develop selected properties to their highest and best use, without short-cuts.
Add some multi-family owner or renter-occupied homes in the downtown area.
Create a pedestrian-friendly environment, under New Urbanism design principles.
Operate stores with good business and management practices.
10.
Pursue existing businesses and entrepreneurs for relocation to the downtown.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
1.0.1 About the Authors
Anderson Economic Group, LLC (AEG) provides consulting services in market strategy studies, feasibility analyses, and community & regional economic analyses. AEG
has expertise in a wide variety of planning sectors that include retail, residential, industrial, office / civic space and other business and economic categories. For more information about our firm and biographical sketches of the authors, visit our website at
www.AndersonEconomicGroup.com.
- END OF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -
7
Crawford Co. / City of Grayling - Background and Study Purpose
2.0 Background and Study Purpose
Today, the City of Grayling includes an Uptown shopping district that spans two city
blocks along Michigan Avenue, and also includes additional retail along perpendicular
streets, including Norway, North James and Peninsular Streets. In today’s competitive
retail environment, the City of Grayling’s downtown (including its Uptown shopping
district) is confronted by a number of issues and challenges. These are summarized
below, and are either addressed in this draft market study or will be addressed in the
final report, following a design charrette that will be conducted in early January 2004.
• The retail mix along Michigan Avenue includes service-based businesses and under-
utilization of some prime retail space. A number of retailers that once occupied
space in the shopping area have left and have not been replaced, including apparel
stores and a book store.
• A number of cornerstone and landmark properties are under-utilized, including the
Chief Shoppenagon’s Hotel, Bear Archery property, Knights of Columbus, Du Bois
Lumber, Reliable Supply and Moshier’s Auto and Appliance, among others.
• The vacancy rate along Michigan Avenue is high, approaching 25,000 gross square
feet and representing about 25 percent of total space within the Uptown shopping
area. This includes a number of notable facilities like Chief Shoppenagon’s Hotel
and the Harbor Shirt Shop (Keelan Property).
• The current owner of the Bear Archery property has proposed development of a
mixed-use project which would include retail, sparking concern that the Uptown
district is at risk from sales impacts of retail fragmentation and customer diversion,
particularly if the new project is not connected to Michigan Avenue.
• The County Complex anchors the southwestern end of Michigan Avenue, which
limits access to the Au Sable River and utilization of that resource as a downtown
attraction. The county complex on this property also makes it difficult to connect the
Bear Archery property to the traditional Uptown shopping area.
• Convenience-based merchants, services and vacancies do not encourage a pedes-
trian environment. Customers are demanding parking in front of their singular destinations, rather than demonstrating a willingness to walk and cross-shop within the
shopping area.
• Convenient parking appears to be a common complaint of patrons who frequent the
Uptown shopping area. Additionally, the surface lot behind Chief Shoppenagon’s is
chained off by the owner of that vacant property, which limits the appeal for potential tenants in adjacent vacancies.
8
• Retail developments along competing corridors, particularly South James Street /
M-72 and Lake Street / M-93 toward Kalkaska, have impacted retailers in Grayling’s Uptown shopping area, diverting customers to scattered restaurants, convenience and general merchandise stores. A number of entrepreneurs and independent
merchants have chosen to operate their stores out of “marginal” facilities along
competing commercial corridors, rather than the downtown area. This has the effect
of reduced retail synergies, and makes cross-shopping inconvenient.
• Competing destinations in other cities like Saginaw, West Branch, Gaylord and
Traverse City have succeeded in pulling shoppers from the City of Grayling, and
sales export from the area is high. Grayling’s Uptown shopping area has struggled to
compete with regional shopping centers, big-box retailers and outlet malls in the
region.
• The Uptown shopping area is removed from Grayling’s Highway 75 exit onto South
James Street. Shoppers exiting off I-75 must pass Kmart and the South James Street
commercial corridor to get into Grayling’s Uptown shopping area, with numerous
shopping alternatives and diversions.
• The traditional Uptown shopping district is perpendicular to the city’s main thor-
oughfare along James Street / M-72, with reduced visibility and awareness of the
downtown among potential shoppers.
• Local demographics, which include a small population base, relatively small labor
force, moderate income levels and high unemployment, all limit expenditure potential of residents and customers within the local market.
Despite these current limitations and challenges, the City of Grayling and its downtown
offer a number of advantages that can be capitalized for future development, recovery
and foundation for long-term economic vitality.
• The existing Uptown shopping area is complete on both sides of Michigan Avenue,
and is not fragmented or interrupted by any other types of land use (with the exception of vacancies). Pedestrians are able to traverse both sides of this corridor, as
well as along Norway Street.
• The Uptown area benefits from a wide street (Michigan Avenue) which is capable
of accommodating angle parking on both sides, plus turning lanes onto James
Street.
• Although perpendicular to the main access road, the Uptown shopping district is
visible and accessible to State Highway 72. Awareness of the shopping area could
be increased with improved signage.
• Although some services are occupying space that should be for traditional mer-
chants, the majority of other tenants in the Uptown shopping area offer a good merchandise mix, including general merchandise, novelty goods, apparel, eateries,
office services and restaurants, among others.
9
• Although vacancy rates are high, the Uptown shopping area includes quality space
that has not been leased or “traded down” to lower-rent uses or services. Various
vacant and For-Sale or For-Lease properties will facilitate appropriate development
with the best tenants - whereas underutilized space is more difficult to convert.
• Although access to the Au Sable River is currently prevented by the County Com-
plex, the county is receptive to alternatives and ideas that would benefit the community and city, with possibilities for connecting the downtown to the river.
• The downtown includes riverfront Brownfield property (the Bear Archery Property)
that has already been acquired by a prospective developer. This same developer is
willing to convert that parcel, and is interested in concepts and ideas that will help
the county, city and community overall.
• Existing tenants, landowners and developers within the DDA District have demon-
strated interest in the community’s efforts, and are hopeful that cooperative planning
will directly benefit their businesses. Cooperative businesses are representing the
following parcels: the Crawford County Complex, DuBois Lumber, Bear Archer
Brownfield Sites, Keelan Commercial Property, Reliable Supply Au Sable Gifts,
and the Rialto Cinema, among others.
These advantages are considered when evaluating the results of our supply / demand
analysis, and in reviewing the amount of supportable retail within the Uptown area and
immediate vicinity.
10
Crawford County, Michigan - Market Overview
3.0 Market Overview
3.1 Introduction
For purposes of this analysis for Crawford County and the City of Grayling, we have
evaluated several levels of geography, including:
•
•
•
•
•
State: Michigan
Competitive Region: Crawford, Otsego, Kalkaska, Roscommon, Ogemaw and
Grand Traverse Counties
Primary County: Crawford County
Subject City: The City of Grayling
Downtown Area: the City of Grayling’s designated Downtown Development
Authority District (DDA District). This includes the “Uptown” shopping area,
which spans two blocks along Michigan Avenue, plus retail along Norway,
James and Peninsular Streets.
Crawford County is bordered to the north by Otsego County (the City of Gaylord), to
the west by Kalkaska County, to the east by Oscoda County and to the south by
Roscommon County. For purposes of this study, we have defined the Region as the
geographic area which most directly competes with the City of Grayling for visitor dollars. This includes Traverse City (Grand Traverse County), the City of Gaylord
(Otsego County), West Branch (Ogemaw County) and Roscommon / Houghton Lake
(Roscommon County). Kalkaska County is also included because it connects Grayling
with Traverse City geographically. This region is referenced throughout our report and
is used as a comparative frame-of-reference in our evaluation of Crawford County and
the City of Grayling.
3.2 Crawford County Overview
Crawford County is centrally located in the State of Michigan. The county’s most populated city—the City of Grayling—is located 75 miles directly east of Lake Michigan,
70 miles directly west of Lake Huron, and 75 miles directly south of the Mackinac
Bridge, which connects the state’s mainland to the Upper Peninsula. The nearest metropolitan area is Bay City - Saginaw, located 90 miles to the southeast, followed by
Flint another 30 miles past Saginaw, and then by Pontiac / Detroit (another 30 miles).
11
Crawford County benefits from its location at the interchange shared by Interstate 75
from Detroit and Highway 27 / 127 from Lansing, Michigan. Both highways provide
access for visitors traveling north for recreational opportunities and family vacations.
Visitors are pulled to the region by a variety of shopping, touring and recreational
opportunities provided by the area lakes, rivers, forests and campgrounds. These are
addressed further in the tourism chapter of this report.
Cities and communities most proximate to the City of Grayling include Roscommon,
located just 15 miles driving distance to the south, Kalkaska located 25 miles west,
Gaylord (28 miles north) and Mio (32 miles east). Traverse City is 51 miles to the
northwest and past Kalkaska, and has developed as a popular destination for vacationing families from throughout Michigan, drawing a considerable number of visitors from
as far as Milwaukee and Chicago. These distances are summarized below, along with
drive time in hours and minutes.
TABLE 2.
City of Grayling - Driving Distance to Nearby Cities
City Name
Miles
Time
from
(Hours:
Grayling Minutes)
Roscommon
Kalkaska
Gaylord
Mio
Traverse City
Mackinaw City
Saginaw
Sault Ste. Marie
Lansing
Detroit
Grand Rapids
15
25
28
32
51
85
107
141
146
205
164
0:21
0:37
0:39
0:45
1:12
1:25
1:39
2:13
2:52
3:13
3:21
Source: Anysite, Inc. 2003
3.3 Crawford County Parameters - Population and Income
Earned income and population directly impact the expenditure potential of residents
within any local market. After covering for non-retail expenses like mortgage, rent, car
loans, fuel and household utilities (gas, electric, water, sewer and waste), education,
medical expenses, services, taxes and interest payments on debt, the remaining “discretionary income” is available for purchases of groceries, general merchandise, apparel,
household goods and other retail consumables.
12
A complete analysis of retail sales demand and opportunity relies upon accurate projections of county market parameters, including Population and Per Capita Income (PCI),
which when multiplied together, derive Total Personal Income (TPI). Retail expenditures can be evaluated on the basis of Per Capita Expenditures (Total Sales v. Total
Population), and compared to income levels (Per Capita Expenditures v. Per Capita
Income).
The following table provides a summary of the market parameters for Crawford County
as projected by Anderson Economic Group. As shown, the county gradually gained
population between 1980 and 2000, increasing from 9,465 to 14,273 residents. Based
on information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and state estimates, the county is
expected to continue growing at about 1.5 percent annually through 2005, reaching
15,423 in that year and 16,577 by 2010.
TABLE 3.
Population and Income - Crawford County, Michigan
Crawford County
1979
1980
Total Income ($Mil.)
CAGR (Growth Rate)
$88.5
$89.3
1.0%
Per Capita Income
CAGR (Growth Rate)
9,419 $9,438
0.2%
Population
Net Change
CAGR (Growth Rate)
9,392
9,465
73
0.8%
1989
1990
1995
$114.8 $118.6
2.8% 3.3%
$175.2
8.1%
1999
2000
2003
2005
2010
$236.8 $245.5
7.8%
3.7%
$274.3
5.0%
$302.7
5.0%
$386.1
5.0%
9,610 $9,672 $13,069 $16,903 $17,200 $18,337 $19,626 $23,290
0.2% 0.6%
6.2%
6.6%
1.8%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
11,947 12,260
276
280
2.6% 2.6%
13,407
194
1.8%
14,010 14,273
130
263
1.1%
1.9%
14,960
226
1.5%
15,423
233
1.5%
16,577
229
1.4%
Source: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Anderson Economic Group.
Based on the 2000 Census of Population, residents in Crawford County reported an
average income of $16,903 per person in 1999, up from $9,610 in 1989 (1990 Census).
Per capita income levels are projected to reach $23,290 by 2010, and Total Personal
Income (TPI) will reach $386 million by that same year. (For perspective, it is estimated that the existing Kmart store in Grayling is currently achieving between $10.0
and $12.0 million.)
13
3.4 The Region - Demographic Comparisons
In the following sections of this chapter, we compare more detailed demographic data
for Crawford County with the region and state, including employment trends, educational attainment and housing characteristics. Comparisons to Grand Traverse, Otsego
and Ogemaw Counties are intended to provide perspective, recognizing that Grayling is
a community with amenities and challenges that make it unique from these other areas.
The comparisons are important in evaluating the local market, and help quantify the
magnitude of opportunity for additional retail space in downtown Grayling.
Population and Ethnicity: The following table provides a summary of population and
ethnicity data for each of the counties within Grayling’s competitive region. Crawford
is the smallest county with a 2000 census population of 14,273, and is most similar in
size to Kalkaska County. Grand Traverse County is the largest with 77,654 people, followed by Roscommon County (25,469), Otsego County (23,301) and Ogemaw County
(21,645). Crawford County is also growing slower than most of these comparative
counties, with the exception of Ogemaw County (1.5% CAGR from 1990 to 2000).
14
TABLE 4.
Demographic Comparison Table - Population and Ethnicity
POPULATION, ETHNICITY
State of
Michigan
(Total)
Crawford
County
(Grayling)
Grand Traverse
Otsego
Ogemaw
County
County
County
(Traverse City) (Gaylord) (West Branch)
Roscommon
County
(Roscommon)
Kalkaska
County
(Kalkaska)
Population
2007 Estimated
2002 Estimated
2000 Census
1997 interpolated
1990 Census
% cagr Pop. 2002-07
% cagr Pop. 2000-02
% cagr Pop 1990-00
10,281,199
10,020,498
9,938,444
9,740,962
9,295,297
0.52%
0.41%
0.67%
15,534
14,611
14,273
13,637
12,260
1.23%
1.18%
1.53%
86,055
79,860
77,654
73,371
64,273
1.51%
1.41%
1.91%
26,805
24,278
23,301
21,549
17,957
2.00%
2.07%
2.64%
23,501
22,152
21,645
20,710
18,681
1.19%
1.16%
1.48%
29,205
26,512
25,469
23,607
19,776
1.95%
2.03%
2.56%
18,556
17,118
16,571
15,582
13,497
1.63%
1.64%
2.07%
2002 Ethnicity (Number)
White, Caucasian
Black, African American
American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut
Asian or Pacific Islander
Other Races
10,020,498
8,158,785
1,475,395
60,304
188,648
137,366
14,611
14,206
252
85
39
29
79,859
77,735
485
758
428
453
24,278
23,898
92
153
95
40
22,152
21,822
76
133
92
29
26,512
26,115
142
168
61
26
17,118
16,851
70
133
47
17
Hispanic (may be of any race)
Non-Hispanic
346,696
9,673,802
154
14,457
1,265
78,595
192
24,086
275
21,877
228
26,284
157
16,961
2002 Ethnicity (Percent)
White, Caucasian
Other Races
100.0%
81.4%
14.7%
0.6%
1.9%
1.4%
100.0%
97.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
100.0%
97.3%
0.6%
0.9%
0.5%
0.6%
100.0%
98.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
100.0%
98.5%
0.3%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
100.0%
98.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
100.0%
98.4%
0.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Non-Hispanic
3.5%
96.5%
1.1%
98.9%
1.6%
98.4%
0.8%
99.2%
1.2%
98.8%
0.9%
99.1%
0.9%
99.1%
Note: cagr indicates compound annual growth rate
Source: 1990 and 2000 Census, Anysite, Inc. 2003 and Anderson Economic Group.
Crawford County’s relatively small size limits its ability to compete with surrounding
destinations which are larger. Each market must have a resident population base and
income levels which are sufficient to support proposed expansions in commercial, retail
or entertainment space. The physical size of each market will determine the total
amount of space that is supportable within each category, although this can be supplemented by the contributions of visitors and tourists.
Age and Marital Status: When compared to other counties in the region, the average
resident in Crawford County is slightly older, slightly more likely to be male than
female, and slightly less likely to be married. As shown in the table below, the median
age is 40, compared to 35 for the state average, and the population is 51 percent male.
About 85 percent of persons age 15 and over have been married at some point in their
life, but only 55 percent are married now.
15
TABLE 5.
Demographic Comparison - Age and Marital Status
AGE and MARITAL STATUS
State of
Michigan
(Total)
Crawford Grand Traverse
Otsego
Ogemaw
County
County
County
County
(Grayling) (Traverse City) (Gaylord) (West Branch)
Roscommon
County
(Roscommon)
Kalkaska
County
(Kalkaska)
2002 Detailed Population By Age
Number Under Age 18
Percent Under Age 18
2002 Median Age
2,611,745
26.1%
35
3,563
24.4%
40
20,218
25.3%
37
6,486
26.7%
37
5,181
23.4%
42
5,261
19.8%
47
4,366
25.5%
37
2000 Population by Gender
Male Population
Percent Male Population
9,930,402
4,869,033
49.0%
14,273
7,276
51.0%
77,497
37,787
48.8%
23,301
11,568
49.6%
21,645
10,736
49.6%
25,469
12,535
49.2%
16,571
8,338
50.3%
Female Population
Percent Female Population
5,061,369
51.0%
6,997
49.0%
39,710
51.2%
11,733
50.4%
10,909
50.4%
12,934
50.8%
8,233
49.7%
Marital Status (2002)
Population Age 15+
Percent Age 15+
7,995,969
79.8%
11,989
82.1%
64,629
80.9%
19,378
79.8%
18,306
82.6%
22,594
85.2%
13,772
80.5%
Never Married
Percent Never Married
2,149,713
21.5%
2,208
15.1%
14,385
18.0%
3,795
15.6%
3,434
15.5%
3,510
13.2%
2,802
16.4%
Now Married (2002)
Percent Now Married (2002)
Separated (2002)
Widowed (2002)
Divorced (2002)
3,922,837
49%
320,468
498,720
810,555
6,598
55%
517
844
1,352
34,690
54%
2,350
3,494
7,215
11,226
58%
595
1,130
1,837
10,280
56%
670
1,435
1,816
13,172
58%
689
1,948
2,607
7,805
57%
439
773
1,443
Source: 1990 and 2000 Census, Anysite, Inc 2003 and Anderson Economic Group.
Age, marital status and gender have clear bearing upon demand and household expenditures within each retail category. On a nation-wide scale, it is known that women make
85 percent of total expenditures on retail goods. However, it is the younger population
that introduces most fashion trends and fads into the households. Although teens spend
less than adults, parents increase expenditures when pressured by teens - and both
groups must be satisfied by an appropriate merchandise mix.
Housing Units: The table below provides a comparison of housing characteristics for
the region’s counties. As shown, 40.9 percent of all housing units in the market are
reported to be for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, which is exceeded only by
Roscommon County (48.0%). Meanwhile, the actual vacancy rate among year-round
residences is low in Crawford County, estimated at just 3.0 percent compared to the
state average of 5.1 percent.
16
TABLE 6.
Demographic Comparison - Housing Units
HOUSING UNITS
State of
Michigan
(Total)
Crawford Grand Traverse
Otsego
Ogemaw
County
County
County
County
(Grayling) (Traverse City) (Gaylord) (West Branch)
Roscommon
County
(Roscommon)
Kalkaska
County
(Kalkaska)
2000 Housing Tenure
Housing Units
Occupied Housing Units
Owner Occupied Units
Renter Occupied Units
Vacant Housing Units
For Rent
For Sale Only
Rented or Sold/Not Occ.
For Seasonal/Rec/Occ.
For Migrant Workers
Other Vacant
4,229,159
3,782,239
2,790,330
991,909
446,920
72,744
44,183
27,125
232,488
1,447
68,932
10,038
5,622
4,653
970
4,415
65
82
26
4,110
1
131
34,768
30,333
23,463
6,870
4,435
409
409
188
3,018
9
403
13,375
8,995
7,351
1,644
4,380
153
131
120
3,804
5
167
15,404
8,842
7,482
1,360
6,562
85
271
95
5,829
0
282
23,114
11,253
9,672
1,581
11,861
174
225
89
11,093
2
278
10,822
6,428
5,470
958
4,394
97
118
52
3,827
0
300
Housing Units
For Rent, Sale or Other
4,229,159
89.4%
73.8%
26.2%
10.6%
5.5%
5.1%
10,038
56.0%
82.8%
17.3%
44.0%
40.9%
3.0%
34,768
87.2%
77.4%
22.7%
12.8%
8.7%
4.1%
15,404
57.4%
84.6%
15.4%
42.6%
37.8%
4.8%
15,404
57.4%
84.6%
15.4%
42.6%
37.8%
4.8%
23,114
48.7%
86.0%
14.1%
51.3%
48.0%
3.3%
10,822
59.4%
85.1%
14.9%
40.6%
35.4%
5.2%
Median Length of Residence
6.4
6.6
5.1
7.4
7.4
6.7
6
In Crawford County, 17.3 percent of occupied housing units are renter-occupied.
While this is low relative to the state average, it is high compared to Otsego, Ogemaw,
Roscommon and Kalkaska Counties.
These figures are important because home owners and year-round residents typically
have higher demand for durable goods. This may include furniture, home furnishings,
home improvement (tools, household fixtures, building supplies), electronics, appliances, pets and related categories. In comparison, renter-occupied households and partial-year residents may demand items like ready-to-assemble furniture, storage
solutions and relatively compact or disposable merchandise. Home purchases may
focus less on furniture and durable goods, and more on discount and outlet goods, moderate restaurants, entertainment venues, books, crafts and hobby supplies.
17
Income: Earned income1 has a direct bearing on discretionary income and household
expenditures on consumables and durable goods, and determines a market’s potential
for retail space. Based on the 2000 census, Crawford County residents reported a 1999
per capita earned income of $16,903, which is slightly higher than Ogemaw County
($15,768) and Kalkaska County ($16,309) and not too dissimilar from Roscommon
County ($17,837), but lower than Otsego County ($19,810). Income growth for Crawford County is keeping pace with the region, and is projected to increase at a 3.5 percent
compound annual rate through 2007, reflecting some recovery from the most recent
recession. These figures are also summarized in the following table.
TABLE 7.
Demographic Comparison - Per Capita and Household Income
State of
Michigan
(Total)
Crawford
County
(Grayling)
2007 Per Capita Income
% cagr PCI 2002-07
% cagr PCI 1999-02
% cagr PCI 1989-99
$26,980
$23,118
$22,168
$20,807
$16,669
$14,154
3.1%
1.4%
4.6%
$21,006
$17,724
$16,903
$15,601
$11,785
$9,610
3.5%
1.6%
5.8%
$27,418
$23,204
$22,111
$20,578
$16,002
$13,289
3.4%
1.6%
5.2%
$25,026
$21,063
$19,810
$18,328
$13,961
$11,366
3.5%
2.1%
5.7%
$19,941
$16,724
$15,768
$14,572
$11,057
$8,991
3.6%
2.0%
5.8%
$23,130
$19,158
$17,837
$16,387
$12,178
$9,709
3.8%
2.4%
6.3%
$20,361
$17,126
$16,309
$15,109
$11,564
$9,502
3.5%
1.6%
5.6%
2007 Average Household Inc.
$69,067
$60,217
$38,073
$50,961
$44,238
$26,199
$67,792
$58,682
$35,003
$62,642
$53,941
$30,976
$47,208
$40,475
$23,211
$51,276
$43,128
$22,212
$50,802
$43,619
$25,726
2007 Median Household Inc.
$61,657
$46,041
$31,067
$36,008
$31,979
$21,527
$52,584
$42,847
$29,017
$46,864
$38,938
$26,320
$32,781
$28,380
$17,798
$33,147
$28,548
$17,037
$38,851
$34,722
$22,087
$277,386.7
$231,653.9
$220,315.4
$165,661.4
3.67%
2.54%
2.89%
$326.3
$259.0
$241.3
$168.2
4.73%
3.61%
3.67%
$2,359.5
$1,853.1
$1,717.0
$1,242.6
4.95%
3.89%
3.29%
$670.8
$511.4
$461.6
$325.3
5.58%
5.25%
3.56%
$468.6
$370.5
$341.3
$239.3
4.81%
4.19%
3.61%
$675.5
$507.9
$454.3
$310.2
5.87%
5.74%
3.89%
$377.8
$293.2
$270.3
$191.6
5.20%
4.15%
3.50%
INCOME
2007 Total Personal Inc. ($Mil)
% cagr TPI 2002-2007
% cagr TPI 2000-2002
% cagr TPI 1990-2000
Grand Traverse
Otsego
Ogemaw
County
County
County
(Traverse City) (Gaylord) (West Branch)
Roscommon
County
(Roscommon)
Kalkaska
County
(Kalkaska)
1. Note: Earned Income does not include social security, interest payments, 401K, stocks, charity or cash gifts.
18
3.5 Effective Trade Area for Downtown Grayling
While the focus of our resulting conclusions and recommendations are for the downtown Grayling and its Uptown shopping area, it is first necessary to evaluate the geographic trading area for that downtown. This requires delineating a geographic area that
represents the effective trading area for merchants in downtown Grayling.
For purposes of this project, we have delineated a trading area for downtown Grayling
that reflects a variety of factors and field observations, including traffic flow patterns,
drive time analysis (see Map 2 in this section of the report), accessibility, locations of
existing and proposed competition, natural and man-made barriers, psychological /
socio-economic factors and the downtown’s overall customer drawing power (based on
its full potential).
The downtown trade area represents the geographic area from which the majority of
customers will be derived, and which is served by that downtown. Residents in this
trade area are expected to contribute 70 percent of total retail sales for local stores and
businesses (with the exception of hotels / motels and tourist shops), with the balance
representing “inflow” from adjacent counties.
50% Primary Trade Area
70% Effective Trade Area
5% Non-tourists, local visitors
10% Tourists and Visitors
The downtown Grayling trade areas are displayed in the following map (Map 1), along
with the distribution of population for 2002. Given the rural character of the region, the
block groups used to create this trade area (the smallest unit possible) are geographically large, resulting in a rather blocky trade area configuration.
The Primary Trade Area encompasses the City of Grayling and surrounding neighborhoods, but is entirely contained within the Crawford County boundaries. In comparison, the Effective Trade Area includes the entire county, and also reaches south to
Roscommon and west to Kalkaska. The trade area stops short of Highway 131, which
parallels Interstate 75 and connects Grand Rapids to Petosky, Michigan.
19
The Effective Trade Area reflects the downtown’s full potential for drawing customers
from the surrounding area, assuming that this “pulling power” is assisted by an effectively revitalized downtown and creation of a destination main street. The trade area
also respects the presence of competing shopping destinations in Traverse City, Gaylord and West Branch, as well as other communities in the region like Houghton Lake,
Roscommon and Mio.
MAP 1.
Grayling, MI Market Study: Population Density 2002
Central Lake
Lake
Central
Gaylord
Gaylord
II 77
55 NN
Suttons Bay
Bay
Suttons
Fulton St
Fulton
St E
E
Bellaire
Bellaire
Antrim
Antrim
County
County
Greilickville
Greilickville
State
State Hwy
Hwy M73
M73
Traverse City
City
Traverse
Kalkaska
Kalkaska
ake
ake Ann
Ann
Montmo
Montmo
Coun
Coun
Otsego
Otsego
County
County
Lewiston
Lewiston
II 9944 W
W
Elk Rapids
Rapids
Elk
Population Density, 2002
by US Census Block Group
1 Dot = 25
E 13
E
13 Mile
Mile Rd
Rd
M 32
32
M
Down
Down River
River Rd
Rd
Major Roads
Highways
Grayling
Grayling
Kalkaska
Kalkaska
County
County
Selden Rd
Selden
Rd
Buckley
Buckley
Manton
Manton
Mesick
Mesick
0
4
8
miles
II77
55
MCD Boundaries
County Boundaries
Oscod
Oscod
Count
Count
Roscommon
Roscommon
County
County
Primary Trade
Area (50 percent)
Effective Trade
Area (70 percent)
Roscommon
Roscommon
S Bagley
Bagley Rd
S
Rd
Lake City
City
Lake
Harrietta
Harrietta
Crawford
Crawford
County
County
vvdd
BBll
oonn
aalltt
W
W
EE
Missaukee
Missaukee
County
County
W Main
W
Main St
St
Fife
Fife Lake
Lake
US
US Hw
Hwyy 23
23 N
N
Kingsley
Kingsley
Cities
John
John C
C Lodge
Lodge Fwy
Fwy
Og
Og
Co
Co
St. Helen
Helen
St.
Houghton Lake
Lake
Houghton
West
West Bra
Bra
Cadillac
Cadillac
Data: US Census Bureau;
Applied Geographic Solutions
Date: 8-Oct, 2003
20
MAP 2.
Grayling, MI - Drive Time from Downtown
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
Northport
Northport
UUSS
HHww
yy 11
3311
Suttons Bay
Bay
Suttons
Gran
Travers d
e Bay
Central Lake
Lake
Central
Bellaire
Bellaire
Gaylord
Gaylord
Atlanta
Atlanta
State Hwy
State
Hwy 32
32
Antrim
Antrim
County
County
Montmorency
Montmorency
County
County
Otsego
Otsego
County
County
II 7755 SS
Lewiston
Lewiston
Greilickville
Greilickville
Traverse
Traverse
City
City
Lake Ann
Ann
Lake
Kalkaska
Kalkaska
State Hwy
Hwy 72
72
State
Mio
Mio
Grayling
Grayling
Fife Lake
Lake
Fife
Buckley
Buckley
opemish
opemish
8
miles
Lake City
City
Lake
EE Houghton
Houghton Lake
Lake Rd
Rd
Harrietta
Harrietta
Highways
City Boundaries
County Boundaries
Roscommon
Roscommon
Roscommon
Roscommon
County
County
7766
ttee
SSttaa
Mesick
Mesick
4
Major Roads
Oscoda
Oscoda
County
County
dd
OOll
Missaukee
Missaukee
County
County
0
US Hw
US
Hwyy 27
27
psonville
mpsonville
Manton
Manton
Crawford
Crawford
County
County
Kalkaska
Kalkaska
County
County
20-Min. Drive Time Region
State Hwy
Hwy 72
72
State
Kingsley
Kingsley
Rose
Rose C
C
Ogemaw
Ogemaw
County
County
St. Helen
Helen
St.
Houghton Lake
Lake
Houghton
West Branch
Branch
West
Cadillac
Cadillac
McBain
McBain
Sk
Ski
Date: 8-Oct, 2003
Map 2 (above) demonstrates drive-time distances from downtown Grayling to the surrounding areas. As shown, Houghton Lake, Kalkaska and Gaylord are each roughly 30
minutes away. In more urban settings, a trade area would typically be delineated for a
10 to 15-minute drive-time. In comparison, a 20 to 25-minute drive-time trade area is
reasonable for a city like Grayling, where population densities quickly decline beyond
the city limits and alternative shopping opportunities are relatively far apart.
Map 3 on the following page shows the trade areas as well with the distribution of 2002
Median Household Income levels. The relatively moderate income levels within Crawford County are clearly evident in this map, whereas income levels are considerably
higher to the north and west.
21
MAP 3.
Grayling, MI Market Study: Med. Hhld. Inc. 2002
Suttons Bay
Bay
Suttons
Gaylord
Gaylord
II 77
55 NN
Grand
Traverse Bay
Central Lake
Lake
Central
AA
Fulton St
Fulton
St EE
Bellaire
Bellaire
Mancelona
Mancelona
Elk Rapids
Rapids
Elk
II 7755
Lewiston
Lewiston
Greilickville
Greilickville
Traverse City
City
Traverse
Kalkaska
Kalkaska
ke Ann
Ann
ke
Major Roads
M 32
32
M
Highways
City Boundaries
Grayling
Grayling
Median HH Income, 2002
John
John C
C Lodge
Lodge Fwy
Fwy
70,000 +
55,000 to 69,999
45,000 to 54,999
35,000 to 44,999
0 to 34,999
Buckley
Buckley
Manton
Manton
Mesick
Mesick
by US Census Block Group
Fife Lake
Lake
Fife
US
US Hw
Hwyy 23
23 N
N
Kingsley
Kingsley
0
4
Roscommon
Roscommon
Primary Trade
Area (50 percent)
Effective Trade
Area (70 percent)
8
miles
55
II 77
SS Bagley
Bagley Rd
Rd
Lake City
City
Lake
Harrietta
Harrietta
St. Helen
Helen
St.
Houghton Lake
Lake
Houghton
West
West Branch
Branch
Cadillac
Cadillac
Data: US Census Bureau;
Applied Geographic Solutions
Date: 8-Oct, 2003
3.6 Demographic Comparison - City of Grayling Trade Areas
The City of Grayling reported a population of nearly 2,000 persons in 2002, which represents about 13 percent of the total population for Crawford County (14,611). The
average household income is $36,411, which is low relative to the county average
($44,238). However, it is the primary and effective trade areas that provide the core
customer base for local merchants.
Although the Primary Trade Area (50% of retail sales) covers only half the geographic
area of Crawford County, it encompasses 11,612 people, representing nearly 80 percent
of the county (14,611). The Effective Trade Area, which is expected to account for
about 70 percent of retail sales, includes nearly twice the population of Crawford
County, and has an income profile which is more similar to the county than the city.
The Effective Trade Area includes 28,138 residents with an average household income
of $43,609.
22
Additional demographic data is provided in the following two summary tables, and
detailed comparisons are included in the attached appendix of this report. The appendix
tables also display data for households, educational attainment, employment status and
employment by industry.
TABLE 8.
Comparative Population Profiles - City of Grayling Trade Areas
State of
Michigan
Crawford
County
City of
Grayling
Effective
Trade Area
Primary
Trade Area
10,281,199
10,020,498
9,938,444
9,740,962
9,295,297
0.52%
0.41%
0.67%
15,900
14,611
14,273
13,637
12,260
1.71%
1.18%
1.53%
1,963
1,954
1,952
1,950
1,944
0.09%
0.05%
0.04%
30,315
28,138
27,313
25,818
22,639
1.50%
1.50%
1.89%
12,295
11,612
11,359
10,894
9,883
1.15%
1.11%
1.40%
2002 Ethnicity (Number)
White, Caucasian
Other Races
10,020,498
8,158,785
1,475,395
60,304
188,648
137,366
14,611
14,206
252
85
39
29
1,954
1,922
7
15
8
2
28,138
27,561
319
140
72
46
11,612
11,233
249
64
37
29
Non-Hispanic
346,696
9,673,802
154
14,457
30
1,923
267
27,871
133
11,479
2002 Ethnicity (Percent)
White, Caucasian
Other Races
100.0%
81.4%
14.7%
0.6%
1.9%
1.4%
100.0%
97.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
100.0%
98.4%
0.4%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
100.0%
97.9%
1.1%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
100.0%
96.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
Non-Hispanic
3.5%
96.5%
1.1%
98.9%
1.5%
98.4%
0.9%
99.1%
1.1%
98.9%
POPULATION, ETHNICITY
Population
2007 Estimated
2002 Estimated
2000 Census
1997 interpolated
1990 Census
% cagr Pop. 2002-07
% cagr Pop. 2000-02
% cagr Pop 1990-00
23
TABLE 9.
Comparative Income Profiles - City of Grayling Trade Areas
State of
Michigan
Crawford
County
City of
Grayling
Effective
Trade Area
Primary
Trade Area
% cagr PCI 2002-07
% cagr PCI 1999-02
% cagr PCI 1989-99
$26,980
$23,118
$22,168
$20,807
$16,669
$14,154
3.1%
1.4%
4.6%
$21,006
$17,724
$16,903
$15,601
$11,785
$9,610
3.5%
1.6%
5.8%
$17,348
$15,031
$13,089
$12,214
$9,587
$7,656
2.9%
4.7%
5.5%
$21,850
$18,400
$17,494
$16,147
$12,197
$9,931
3.5%
1.7%
5.8%
$20,800
$17,700
$16,921
$15,618
$11,798
$9,632
3.3%
1.5%
5.8%
$69,067
$60,217
$38,073
$50,961
$44,238
$26,199
$40,735
$36,441
$24,648
$50,525
$43,609
$25,348
$49,869
$43,706
$26,610
$61,657
$46,041
$31,067
$36,008
$31,979
$21,527
$29,943
$27,214
$19,883
$36,081
$31,969
$20,892
$35,663
$31,846
$21,886
$277,386.7
$231,653.9
$220,315.4
$165,661.4
3.67%
2.54%
2.89%
$334.0
$259.0
$241.3
$168.2
5.22%
3.61%
3.67%
$34.1
$29.4
$25.5
$18.7
3.00%
7.22%
3.16%
$662.4
$517.7
$477.8
$333.1
5.05%
4.09%
3.67%
$255.7
$205.5
$192.2
$134.0
4.5%
3.4%
3.7%
INCOME
% cagr TPI 2002-2007
% cagr TPI 2000-2002
% cagr TPI 1990-2000
24
Crawford County - Housing Assessment
4.0 Housing Assessment
For our evaluation of the residential market, we have utilized the Primary Trade Area
for the City of Grayling, which represents the geographic area from which 60 percent of
all new residents are likely to be derived, drawing the remaining 40 percent of new residents from outside this area.
Introduction. To evaluate the amounts and types (owner vs. renter, apartments vs. single-family) of supportable housing, we have conducted an assessment of housing supply within the primary trade area, and utilized Census 2000 and 2002 updates to help
identify potential gaps in the housing market. The results of this analysis are described
in the following section of this report.
Housing Tenure Summary. The following table shows the percentages of total housing units within the Primary Trade Area that is associated with different uses (e.g.,
renter, owner, seasonal). As shown, only 65.1 percent of occupied housing units in the
City of Grayling are owner-occupied, compared to 82.8 percent for the county average
and 73.8 percent for the State of Michigan.
TABLE 10. Grayling - Owner vs. Renter Household Tenure
OWNER V. RENTER TENURE
State of
Michigan
Crawford
County
City of
Grayling
Effective
Trade Area
Primary
Trade Area
2000 Housing Tenure
Housing Units
For Rent
For Sale Only
Rented or Sold/Not Occ.
For Migrant Workers
Other Vacant
4,229,159
3,782,239
2,790,330
991,909
446,920
72,744
44,183
27,125
232,488
1,447
68,932
10,038
5,622
4,653
970
4,415
65
82
26
4,110
1
131
872
790
514
276
82
20
14
3
37
0
9
23,579
11,338
9,742
1,596
12,241
164
183
60
11,497
2
335
6,783
4,384
3,509
876
2,398
57
65
22
2,153
0
101
Housing Units
For Rent, Sale or Other
4,229,159
89.4%
73.8%
26.2%
10.6%
9.2%
5.1%
10,038
56.0%
82.8%
17.3%
44.0%
38.3%
3.0%
872
90.6%
65.1%
34.9%
9.4%
8.2%
5.3%
23,579
48.1%
85.9%
14.1%
51.9%
45.2%
3.2%
6,783
64.6%
80.0%
20.0%
35.4%
30.8%
3.6%
Median Length of Residence
6.4
6.6
5.1
7.0
6.7
25
The market vacancy rate seems high for Crawford County (44.0%) and the PTA
(35.4%), but is mostly attributed to the large share of seasonal and recreational housing
units. Compared to the county and trade areas, the City of Grayling has a relatively low
percent of seasonal housing. The city actually has a low vacancy rate of 9.4% when
compared to 10.6% percent for the state average. Based on these figures, there is market support for at least 20 new housing units within the downtown, and a maximum of
60 units within the entire city limits.
Housing by Unit Type. The following table further summarizes the structure of the
2002 housing stock in the local market. As shown, the vast majority (74.4%) of housing
units within the PTA are single-family detached homes, although the housing stock also
includes a high percent of mobile homes (15.6%). As expected, most of the attached
units are concentrated within the city limits rather than surrounding rural areas. More
notable, 1-unit attached homes seem to be under-represented even in the city. These are
typically attached rowhouses, each with its own distinct roof but sharing walls with
adjacent units.
In comparison, structures with 2 or more attached units typically share a common roof,
and may include stacked flats or condos, townhomes or live-work units. While such
units are not under-represented within the city limits, there is a scarcity of such homes
in the surrounding rural areas, and corresponding gap within the primary and effective
trade areas.
TABLE 11. Grayling - Housing by Unit Type
HOUSING UNITS / STRUCTURE
Units in Structure
1; detached
1; attached
2 Units
3 or 4 units
5 to 9 units
10 to 19 units
20 to 49 units
50 or more units
Mobile Home
Boat; RV; van; etc.
State of
Michigan
Crawford
County
City of
Grayling
Effective
Trade Area
Primary
Trade Area
70.57%
3.90%
3.46%
2.79%
4.02%
3.42%
2.17%
2.95%
6.55%
0.18%
77.15%
0.53%
1.16%
1.01%
0.61%
0.76%
0.44%
0.00%
14.76%
3.60%
73.46%
1.37%
4.92%
7.32%
3.09%
4.69%
2.63%
0.00%
2.52%
0.00%
82.19%
0.60%
0.72%
0.77%
0.73%
0.53%
0.28%
0.03%
12.25%
1.90%
74.41%
0.56%
1.71%
1.49%
0.90%
1.09%
0.62%
0.00%
15.58%
3.64%
26
When considering the types of new residential developments, it is also
helpful to consider the average number of people that each existing unit accommodates,
measured by average household size. As shown in the table below, 1-person and 2-person households are most prevalent within the Grayling market, and 2-person households carry a larger share locally than across the state overall. This data suggests that
that new housing units added to the market should include amenities to meet the expectations of 2-person households, including at least two bedrooms in each unit.
Household Size.
TABLE 12. Grayling - Average Household Size
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
State of
Michigan
Crawford
County
City of
Grayling
Effective
Trade Area
Primary
Trade Area
2002 Households
2000 Census
1990 Households
% Household cagr 2000-2002
% Household cagr 1990-2000
3,846,958
3,782,239
3,415,400
0.9%
1.0%
5,854
5,622
4,439
2.0%
2.4%
806
790
718
1.0%
1.0%
11,847
11,338
8,778
2.2%
2.6%
4,561
4,384
3,493
2.0%
2.3%
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
Households with Children (2002)
Households w/out Children (2002)
35.60%
64.40%
32.50%
67.50%
34.05%
65.95%
27.84%
72.16%
34.42%
65.58%
Non Family Households
Male Householders
Female Householders
216,189
128,398
87,791
238
155
83
36
19
17
487
316
171
186
121
65
2002 Households (Number)
1 Person Household
2 Person Households
3 Person Households
4 Person Households
5 Person Households
6+ Person Households
3,846,958
1,015,567
1,267,820
613,841
544,360
252,155
153,215
5,854
1,417
2,351
893
681
332
181
806
247
280
120
90
42
28
11,847
3,018
5,156
1,557
1,223
582
311
4,561
1,109
1,747
732
554
271
149
2002 Households (Percent)
1 Person Household
2 Person Households
3 Person Households
4 Person Households
5 Person Households
6+ Person Households
100.0%
26.4%
33.0%
16.0%
14.2%
6.6%
4.0%
100.0%
24.2%
40.2%
15.3%
11.6%
5.7%
3.1%
100.0%
30.6%
34.7%
14.9%
11.2%
5.2%
3.5%
100.0%
25.5%
43.5%
13.1%
10.3%
4.9%
2.6%
100.0%
24.3%
38.3%
16.0%
12.1%
5.9%
3.3%
2002 Average Hhld. Size
2000 Average Hhld. Size
27
Home Values and Monthly Rents. The following table displays the distribution of
housing units by year of construction, contract rent (e.g., excluding utilities costs), and
average home value. As shown, homes in the Grayling Primary Trade Area tend to be
newer than the state averages, and the median dwelling age is about 26 years for both
Crawford County and the Primary Trade Area. In comparison, the profile within the
City of Grayling is more similar to the state (about 35 years).
Median rents are also lower in Grayling than statewide, which is consistent with the
perception that the average cost-of-living is relatively low in the local market. However, even after adjusting for cost-of-living differences, there is limited supply of rental
housing in the $550 to $1,000 rent ranges. Given the relatively moderate demographic
and income profiles, we would not recommend that rental units be added with rent
structures higher than $750 per month.
TABLE 13. Grayling - Rents and Home Values
State of
Michigan
Crawford
County
City of
Grayling
Effective
Trade Area
Primary
Trade Area
Year Structure Built
Built 1999 to March 2000
Built 1995 to 1998
Built 1990 to 1994
Built 1980 to 1989
Built 1970 to 1979
Built 1960 to 1969
Built 1950 to 1959
Built 1940 to 1949
Built 1939 or earlier
Median Dwelling Age
2.17%
6.44%
6.12%
10.54%
17.07%
14.24%
16.69%
9.84%
16.90%
35.4
4.68%
8.99%
7.12%
12.42%
25.70%
11.44%
10.07%
8.03%
11.55%
26.5
3.77%
6.40%
2.29%
9.49%
21.03%
10.97%
8.69%
10.86%
26.51%
36.4
3.61%
8.53%
7.50%
13.41%
22.19%
13.61%
12.79%
8.87%
9.49%
27.6
3.63%
9.57%
7.25%
13.33%
26.67%
11.57%
8.95%
7.59%
11.44%
26.1
Contract Rent (2002)
Total Rental Housing Units
Less than $349
$350 to $549
$550 to $749
$750 to $999
$1,000 or Higher
No Cash Rent
Median Rent
933,017
23.7%
39.8%
21.5%
7.2%
3.5%
4.38%
$546
865
40.2%
42.1%
7.6%
1.1%
1.1%
7.98%
$453
245
53.4%
39.0%
4.4%
0.4%
0.0%
2.79%
$405
1,367
40.6%
40.2%
5.8%
1.2%
0.7%
11.41%
$452
775
40.0%
41.9%
8.0%
1.2%
1.2%
7.74%
$450
Rent Asked Vacant Units: Number
Aggregate Rent Asked ($1000s)
74,305
$37,167
70
$20
20
$6
156
$55
57
$17
Specified Owner-Occ. Hsg. Units
Median Housing Value
Specified Vacant 4Sale Units
2,266,796
$115,554
36,812
3,387
$79,451
51
490
$73,783
9
7,240
$83,093
126
2,669
$79,659
46
HOUSING UNITS
28
The table above also demonstrates that the Median Housing Value in the Grayling market is in the range of $73,800 - $80,000, which is low compared to the state average of
$115,500 per owned home. After adjusting for differences in income (per capita
income in the Grayling area is about 75 percent that of the state average, or $17,000 v.
$23,000) the median home value could be closer to $85,000 - about five percent higher
than the actual home values, and again reflecting the lower living costs within the local
market.
Based on our assessment of this housing data, along with other demographic and market indicators like population and housing growth, we have deduced that the local market could absorb 20 additional housing units, perhaps as many as 40 units, but not more
than 60. The market would respond best to single-unit attached rental units in the $550
to $750 price range, which could be in the style of stacked-flats or lofts. The market
may also respond favorably to single-unit attached owner-occupied units in the $80,000
- $100,000 price range, which could be in the style of two-level row-houses or livework units above street-front retail.
For the City of Grayling we recommend the development of about 20 owner or renteroccupied units within the immediate vicinity of downtown, which could be developed
through the reuse of existing facilities like the Rialto Cinema and Chief Shoppenagon’s
hotel, and on new development properties, as follows:
• Reuse of Existing Rialto Cinema - lofts or flats above street-front retail or studio.
• Reuse of Existing Chief Shoppenagon’s - lofts or flats above street-front retail.
• Redeveloped Bear Archery Site - rowhouses and live-work units above street-front
services and studios.
• Redeveloped DuBois Lumber Site - rowhouses or live-work units above street-front
services and studios.
• Redeveloped Moshier Auto & Appliance Property - live-work units above street-
front services and studios.
29
Crawford County - Economic Assessment
5.0 Economic Assessment
5.1 Crawford County - Overview
Crawford County and the City of Grayling are strategically located at the crossroad of
two important highways connecting visitors from south Michigan to recreational opportunities in the north mainland and Upper Peninsula. This optimal location also enables
Crawford county residents and businesses to benefit from resources provided within the
region, including education and shopping destinations, among others.
An evaluation of local economic factors in Crawford County is important in understanding the spending potential and retail demands of local residents, and has considerable bearing on consumer confidence levels. In particular, resident expenditures on
retail goods increases in relationship to gains in population, households and labor force,
and with increases in income levels. When economies are soft, income growth tends to
slow, unemployment increases, and average household income levels can decline.
Households respond to economic downturns in a variety of ways. Some may sustain
spending through other sources of unearned income, collecting interest on savings,
cashing-out on savings and investment accounts, or simply allowing household debt to
accumulate. Other consumers may curtail their spending, which helps control household debt, but can have trickle-through ramifications for the local economy.
Like most communities, Crawford County and the City of Grayling are interested in
promoting healthy economic development, which can be achieved by increasing the
population base, educational attainment, labor force, employment and income levels.
In this chapter, we evaluate a number of economic factors that can influence the local
economy and household expenditures, some of which are helpful in identifying potential growth opportunities. These include the following:
• Major Employers
Section 5.2
• Labor Force Trends
Section 5.3
• Employment Status
Section 5.4
• Educational Attainment
Section 5.5
• Industry Sectors
Section 5.6
• Industrial Parks
Section 5.7
30
5.2 Crawford County - Major Employers
Crawford County has fifteen manufacturing employers with 8 or more employees each,
and nine institutional and retail employers with 90 or more employees each. The
majority of these employers are located in the City of Grayling, and the largest by far is
Mercy Hospital, with 468 employees. Crawford AuSable Schools, Camp Grayling and
Nursing Home Group employ over 200 employees each, and Weyerhaeuser Structurwood, Custom Forest Products and CSI Industrial Systems are the largest manufacturing employers. These employers are summarized in the following table and chart, in
descending order by the number of employees.
As the single largest employer in the county, Mercy Hospital plays an important role in
the local economy. The hospital has 90 acute-cases beds and 41 long-term beds, and
generates trickle-through benefits by supporting related medical service businesses.
The hospital also provides access to the Au Sable River, and is a pivotal participant in
the community’s plans for a future river-walk, which is addressed again in our downtown assessment.
31
TABLE 14. Crawford Co. - Major Employers
Crawford County, Michigan
Rank Manufacturing Firm Name
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Weyerhaeuser Structurewood
Custom Forest Products
C S I Industrial Systems
A J D Forest Products
Air-Way Automation
AuSable Woodworking
Georgia-Pacific Resins
Stephan Wood Products
Millikin, Jack
Grayling Reel
Mar-Jon Sawmill
Carlisle Paddle
Grayling Outdoor Products
River Valley Tool
Crawford County Avalanche
Rank Other Major Employers
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Mercy Hospital
Camp Grayling
Crawford AuSable Schools
Nursing Home Group
MI Dept. Military Affairs
Crawford County
Catts Realty Company
The Holiday Inn
Grayling Masonic Temple
Number of Employees
1997
2000
Business Description
180
120
100
65
50
35
32
30
25
21
20
17
12
10
8
185
120
92
65
50
30
33
40
30
22
20
17
12
10
8
Oriented Strand Board; Structurewood
Kiln Dried Lumber, Wood Products
Ventilating, Materials Handling Systems
Lumber, Fencing, Millwork
Special Automated Machines, Feeders
Wooden Gifts, Ad Specialties
Thermosetting Resins, Formaldehyde
Wooden & metal truck parts
Gravel, Concrete, Excavating
Wooden reels for cable & wire
Pallets & Wooden Skids
Canoes, Rafts, kayaks, Paddles
Archery supplies
Machine shop: injection molding
Weekly newspaper publishing
Number of Employees
1997
2000
Business Description
468
216
205
200
114
100
100
90
--
468
214
248
200
114
100
100
90
--
Health Care
Military Reserve Training
Education
Medical Laboratories
National Security
Government
Grocery Stores
Traveler Accommodation
Business Association - 160 members
Source: Grayling Area Chamber of Commerce, 2002.
32
FIGURE 2.
Crawford County - Major Employers by Number of Employees
500
468
Figure 1: Major Employers
Crawford County 1997 and 2000
450
400
350
300
248
250
214
200
200
185
1997
160
150
120
114
100
100
100
2000
92
90
65
50
40
50
33
30
30
22
20
17
12
10
8
C
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Among the eleven employers with more than 100 workers, three are manufacturing
firms, three are government-based, two are retail companies, and three are either health
care or educational institutions. This mix demonstrates the prevalence of service-based
industries in the local market.
Manufacturing firms in Crawford County specialize in wood processing, industrial
machinery manufacturing, and plastics and resins processing. The top two manufacturing sectors represented in Crawford County are wood processing and industrial machinery manufacturing. Benefiting from the region’s abundant natural resources, wood
processing companies are the largest provider of jobs, employing about 500 workers.
The two largest machinery manufacturing businesses, CSI Industrial Systems and AirWay Automation, together employ 150 workers.
33
5.3 Crawford County - Labor Force Trends
Crawford County currently (2003) includes a labor force of 5,749, which is considerably lower than all other counties within the competitive region. Additionally, local
growth in Crawford County’s labor force has not kept pace with the state averages, and
falls below that of other counties within the competitive region.
TABLE 15. Crawford County and Competitive Region - Labor Force Data
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Labor Force (#)
Michigan
Crawford Co.
Otsego Co.
Ogemaw Co.
Roscommon Co.
Kalkaska Co.
Grand Traverse Co.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Employment (#)
Michigan
Crawford Co.
Otsego Co.
Ogemaw Co.
Roscommon Co.
Kalkaska Co.
Grand Traverse Co.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Unemployment (#)
Michigan
Crawford Co.
Otsego Co.
Ogemaw Co.
Roscommon Co.
Kalkaska Co.
Grand Traverse Co.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Unemployed (%)
Michigan
Crawford Co.
Otsego Co.
Ogemaw Co.
Roscommon Co.
Kalkaska Co.
Grand Traverse Co.
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
Labor Force Labor Force Labor Force Labor Force Labor Force
2002
Pop. 16+
4,813,858
5,580
12,165
8,354
8,216
7,194
41,960
5,172,136
5,664
13,912
9,437
8,309
7,898
46,041
5,157,559
5,672
13,858
9,521
8,346
7,924
45,893
5,001,124
5,579
13,690
9,500
8,516
7,775
45,470
5,109,050
5,749
14,230
9,802
8,852
8,072
47,220
7,702,294
11,519
18,583
17,635
21,926
13,262
62,133
1995
Employed
2000
Employed
2001
Employed
2002
Employed
2003
Employed
2002
Pop. 16+
4,556,351
5,079
11,400
7,486
7,356
6,568
39,548
4,989,288
5,337
13,304
8,863
7,769
7,444
44,340
4,886,276
5,292
13,003
8,730
7,712
7,202
43,571
4,691,095
5,133
12,698
8,691
7,789
7,082
42,842
4,775,724
5,263
13,125
8,930
8,022
7,316
44,260
7,702,294
11,519
18,583
17,635
21,926
13,262
62,133
2002
Percent
64.9%
48.4%
73.7%
53.9%
38.8%
58.6%
73.2%
2002
Percent
60.9%
44.6%
68.3%
49.3%
35.5%
53.4%
69.0%
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed
257,507
501
765
868
860
626
2,412
1995
%Unempl.
5.3%
9.0%
6.3%
10.4%
10.5%
8.7%
5.7%
182,848
327
608
574
540
454
1,701
2000
%Unempl.
271,283
380
855
791
634
722
2,322
2001
%Unempl.
3.5%
5.8%
4.4%
6.1%
6.5%
5.7%
3.7%
5.3%
6.7%
6.2%
8.3%
7.6%
9.1%
5.1%
310,029
446
992
809
727
693
2,628
2002
%Unempl.
6.2%
8.0%
7.2%
8.5%
8.5%
8.9%
5.8%
333,326
487
1,105
873
829
756
2,959
2003
%Unempl.
6.5%
8.5%
7.8%
8.9%
9.4%
9.4%
6.3%
Source: US Census - Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov).
34
Labor force levels in Crawford County were also low when measured as a percent of
the population age 16+ years, who typically qualify to be in the labor force. The county
includes 11,519 residents in the 16+ year age category, of which only 48.4 percent are
in the labor force. This compares low to the state average of 64.9 percent, and within
the region, only Roscommon County is lower (38.8%).
These trends, which are also displayed in the following chart, indicate that Crawford
County’s labor force falls short by about 1,000 people. For example, Kalkaska County
has grown its labor force from 6,269 in 1993 to 7,316 by 2003, for a gain of 1,047 people. In comparison, Crawford County has gained only 141 workers over that same
decade.
FIGURE 3.
Crawford County and Competitive Region - Labor Force Trends
Crawford County and Competitive Region
Average Annual Labor Force Data
1993 - 2003
15,000
48,000
14,000
46,000
Otsego Co. (Gaylord)
13,000
44,000
Ogemaw Co. (West Branch)
Roscommon Co. (Roscommon)
12,000
42,000
11,000
40,000
Crawford Co. (Grayling)
Grand Traverse Co. (Traverse
City)
10,000
38,000
9,000
36,000
8,000
34,000
7,000
32,000
6,000
30,000
5,000
28,000
4,000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Labor Force (Grand Traverse Co.)
Labor Force (all other counties)
Kalkaska Co. (Kalkaska)
26,000
2003
As shown in the following chart, Crawford County has also experienced unemployment
rates that are consistently above the state average, and among the highest in the competitive region. According to data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the county’s
unemployment rate was approaching 8.5 percent through 2003, compared to 6.5 percent
for the state average.
35
FIGURE 4.
Crawford County - Comparative Unemployment Trends
Crawford County and Competitive Region
Average Annual Unemployment Rates
1993 - 2003
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
Percent (%)
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Roscommon Co. (Roscommon)
Ogemaw Co. (West Branch)
Kalkaska Co. (Kalkaska)
Crawford Co. (Grayling)
Otsego Co. (Gaylord)
Grand Traverse Co. (Traverse City)
State of Michigan
2.0
1.0
0.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
36
5.4 Crawford County - Employment Status
An evaluation of employment data within the competitive region shows that about 53%
of Crawford County’s employed workers are in blue-collar occupations, compared to
45% statewide. Within the region, only Kalkaska and Ogemaw Counties have a higher
proportion of blue collar workers (59% and 56%, respectively).
TABLE 16. Crawford County - Comparative Employment Status - 2002
State of
Michigan
(Total)
Crawford Grand Traverse Otsego
Ogemaw
Roscommon Kalkaska
County
County
County
County
County
County
(Grayling) (Traverse City) (Gaylord) (West Branch) (Roscommon) (Kalkaska)
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Employment Status - 2002
Population Age 16+
Total Employed
In Armed Forces
7,702,294
4,535,224
3,825
11,519
5,818
12
62,133
39,950
108
18,583
11,009
13
17,635
8,118
4
21,926
9,050
4
13,262
7,434
6
2002 Total White Collar Employment
Executive, Admin & Managerial
Professional Specialty
Technicians & Related Support
Sales Occupations
Admin Support incl. Clerical
2,509,809
501,565
617,832
162,992
512,455
714,965
2,751
477
647
183
693
751
23,490
4,791
5,581
1,568
5,665
5,885
5,766
1,215
1,143
233
1,424
1,751
3,565
659
747
187
975
997
4,636
975
986
175
1,273
1,227
3,014
536
579
173
718
1,008
2002 Total Blue Collar Employment
Private Household
Protective Services
Service Occ, Except Security
Farming, Forestry & Fishing
Production, Craft & Repair
Mach Oper., Assembly/Inspectors
Transport & Material Moving
Handlers & Laborers
2,025,415
13,362
96,617
577,182
19,979
542,020
424,895
176,159
175,201
3,069
33
187
1,088
37
693
417
287
327
16,460
85
321
5,781
216
4,739
2,412
1,379
1,527
5,243
22
140
1,685
84
1,477
825
608
402
4,553
16
161
1,552
123
1,154
620
480
447
4,413
31
165
1,794
65
1,113
488
352
405
4,420
27
70
1,220
42
1,272
866
590
333
White Collar % of Total Employment
Blue Collar % of Total Employment
55%
45%
47%
53%
59%
41%
52%
48%
44%
56%
51%
49%
41%
59%
37
On the positive side, even though unemployment rates are high for the region, they have
not reached the levels realized during the recession of the early 1990’s, when unemployment reached 9.6 percent (1993 - 1994). Trends within the competitive region generally mirror that of state averages.
The labor force and employment data also suggest that there is considerable opportunity
to increase the local labor force in Crawford County, particularly by adding professional or white-collar jobs. This hypothesis should be substantiated by a more detailed
and rigorous industrial analysis, and not used as the sole basis for future economic
development.
Meanwhile, the relatively small labor force and high unemployment rate in Crawford
County somewhat accounts for its relatively low income levels compared to Grand
Traverse and Otsego Counties. If employment levels can be increased, then both the
income levels and expenditure potential of resident households will follow. However,
the local market must also offer acceptable and appealing shopping opportunities, or
consumers will take their expenditures elsewhere.
5.5 Crawford County - Educational Attainment
Crawford County does not include a local college or university, but residents have
access to the Michigan State University (MSU) Extension, which provides employers
and community members with job training opportunities. The MSU Extension offers
programs in parenting and nursing, agriculture and natural resources, and sustainable
forestry. The 4-H Program for personal development is also offered. The nearest 4-year
colleges are located in Traverse City and Gaylord.
Other educational opportunities in the region include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Traverse City - Grand Valley State University
Traverse City - Nortwestern Michigan College M-TEC
Traverse City - Davenport University
Gaylord - Ferris State University
Gaylord - University Center at Gaylord
Gaylord - Davenport University
Gaylord - M-TEC at Kirtland
Cadillac - Baker College
Roscommon - Kirtland Community College
38
Perhaps reflecting the absence of a local college or university, Crawford County has a
relatively low percent of adults with a college education. About 25 percent of adults
(ages 25+ years) have a college degree, compared to 36 percent statewide, 43 percent in
Grand Traverse County and 31 percent in Otsego County. This data is closely related to
employment status and income levels.
TABLE 17. Crawford County - Comparisons of Educational Attainment
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
State of
Michigan
(Total)
Crawford Grand Traverse Otsego
Ogemaw
Roscommon Kalkaska
County
County
County
County
County
County
(Grayling) (Traverse City) (Gaylord) (West Branch) (Roscommon) (Kalkaska)
2002 Education (Number)
Population Age 25+
< Grade 9
Grades 9-12
High School Diploma
Some College
Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate Degree
6,494,611
332,502
885,889
1,084,258
1,870,317
551,158
1,114,120
656,368
10,158
504
1,819
2,095
3,171
844
1,147
579
53,545
1,621
4,633
7,677
16,504
6,129
10,557
6,425
16,149
642
2,088
3,325
5,153
1,317
2,486
1,138
15,602
1,237
3,373
3,625
4,248
1,080
1,291
748
19,832
1,006
3,862
4,187
6,202
1,601
1,750
1,223
11,484
652
2,166
3,033
3,272
777
1,058
526
2002 College Degree (Number)
2,321,646
2,570
23,111
4,941
3,119
4,574
2,361
Education (Percent)
Population Age 25+
< Grade 9
Grades 9-12
High School Diploma
Some College
Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate Degree
100%
5%
14%
17%
29%
8%
17%
10%
100%
5%
18%
21%
31%
8%
11%
6%
100%
3%
9%
14%
31%
11%
20%
12%
100%
4%
13%
21%
32%
8%
15%
7%
100%
8%
22%
23%
27%
7%
8%
5%
100%
5%
19%
21%
31%
8%
9%
6%
100%
6%
19%
26%
28%
7%
9%
5%
2002 College Degree (Percent)
36%
25%
43%
31%
20%
23%
21%
In addition to providing a comparison of Crawford County to other counties within the
competitive region, we have also generated similar demographic data for the City of
Grayling and for effective and primary trading areas for the city’s downtown. These
tables are provided in the attached appendix of this report, along with detailed comparison tables for the counties within the competitive region.
39
5.6 Crawford County - Industry Sectors
The distribution of employment by industry in Crawford County generally mirrors that
of the state. However, manufacturing plays a somewhat smaller role and appears to be
under-represented throughout the entire region—particularly in Roscommon County.
Crawford County has a relatively high share of employment in manufacturing compared to surrounding counties. The following table and series of pie charts further demonstrate these differences.
TABLE 18. Crawford County - Comparative Industry Sectors
Employment Category (%)
Agriculture, Forest, Fish
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Warehouse
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
Retail + FIRE + Services
Total Employment
State of Roscommon Crawford Ogemaw Grand
Michigan
County
County County Traverse
1.1%
0.3%
6.1%
20.6%
4.3%
5.2%
19.8%
7.6%
35.0%
62.4%
100.0%
0.8%
0.9%
10.5%
4.8%
2.9%
2.6%
41.8%
8.5%
27.1%
77.5%
100.0%
1.5%
0.4%
7.8%
15.0%
2.2%
3.2%
22.2%
9.5%
38.3%
70.0%
100.0%
2.0%
0.7%
6.5%
13.9%
4.2%
4.1%
35.9%
8.4%
24.2%
68.5%
100.0%
1.0%
1.7%
9.5%
11.8%
4.1%
3.6%
23.9%
8.5%
36.0%
68.3%
100.0%
Otsego
County
Kalkaska
County
1.3%
5.1%
9.2%
14.8%
3.5%
6.5%
23.1%
5.6%
30.9%
59.6%
100.0%
1.0%
11.9%
8.9%
19.1%
9.2%
3.5%
19.3%
6.0%
21.1%
46.4%
100.0%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2000 Employment by Industry Data
FIRE indicates Finance, Insurance and Real Estate.
Within the competitive region, Crawford County has a similar share of employment in
the Retail Trade sector compared to Grand Traverse and Otsego County. Even though
Grayling offers considerably fewer retail stores compared to these other markets,
employment in this category is comparable when measured as a percent of total. Additionally, Crawford County has a slightly higher share of its employees in FIRE
(Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) and Service based sectors.
A comparison of Retail Trade, FIRE and Services indicates that Crawford County surpasses Grand Traverse and Otsego Counties, while also surpassing them in manufacturing employment (based on share of total employment). Consequently, Crawford
appears to have under-representation in Agriculture, Mining, Construction, Transportation, Warehousing and Wholesale Trade.
40
FIGURE 5.
Employment by Industry - Comparative Pie Charts (Part 1 of 2)
1%
0%
The State of Michigan
2000
6%
35%
Mining
21%
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
4%
Retail Trade
8%
5%
FIRE
Services
20%
0%
1%
Crawford County
2000
8%
Mining
15%
39%
Construction
Manufacturing
2%
3%
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
23%
9%
Services
1%
Otsego County
2000
5%
9%
Mining
31%
Construction
Manufacturing
15%
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
6%
3%
23%
7%
FIRE
Services
41
FIGURE 6.
Employment by Industry - Comparative Pie Charts (Part 2 of 2)
2%
1%
Ogemaw County
2000
6%
Mining
14%
24%
Construction
Manufacturing
4%
Wholesale Trade
8%
4%
Retail Trade
FIRE
37%
Services
1% 1%
Roscommon County
2000
11%
5%
27%
3%
3%
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
8%
Retail Trade
41%
FIRE
Services
1%
2%
Grand Traverse Co.
2000
9%
Mining
12%
36%
Construction
Manufacturing
4%
4%
24%
8%
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
42
This assessment of Retail Trade suggests that for its market size, Crawford County is
not under-represented in the category, which implies that the market may be at capacity
for retail businesses. To test this hypothesis further, we compared retail trade for 2000
against that sector’s performance over the prior 10 years. A significant decline in share
would indicate that a gap is emerging in this sector, whereas a stable or increasing trend
confirms limited opportunity for growth in this sector.
To test this, the following charts depict employment in each industry sector from 1990
to 2000, for counties in the competitive region, and the State of Michigan. The data
shown is the Change in Share of Total Employment over time. It should be noted that
this data tends to be more volatile in smaller markets, where a small change in employment can swing the results. In comparison, larger regions like the State of Michigan
and even Grand Traverse County are expected to be more resilient, and the charts
should show comparatively less volatility over time.
43
FIGURE 7.
Change in Share of Total Employment by Industry (Part 1 of 3)
8.0%
State of Michigan
Change in Share of Employment by Industry
1990 - 2000
6.0%
Change in Share (Percent)
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
1990
Farm Employment
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Public Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
Government
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1998
1999
2000
8.0%
Crawford County (Grayling)
1990 - 2000
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
1990
Farm Employment
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
Government
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
44
FIGURE 8.
8.0%
Otsego County (Gaylord)
1990 - 2000
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
1990
Farm Employment
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
Government
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
8.0%
6.0%
Ogemaw County (West Branch)
1990 - 2000
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
1990
Farm Employment
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
Government
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
45
FIGURE 9.
8.0%
Roscommon County (Roscommon / Houghton Lake)
1990 - 2000
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
1990
Farm Employment
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
Government
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
8.0%
Grand Traverse County (Traverse City)
1990 - 2000
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
1990
Farm Employment
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
FIRE
Services
Government
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
46
As shown in the charts on the preceding pages, the Retail Trade sector has declined considerably within Crawford County over the past 10 years. Even though Retail Trade
currently represents a representative share of total employment in 2000 (compared to
the region), it has fallen significantly from the levels previously achieved, and has not
kept pace with growth in the Services and FIRE sectors.
As a case-in-point, Ogemaw County has been aggressive in developing retail off the
Interstate 75 interchange toward West Branch. In addition to Tanger Outlet Mall, the
West Branch will soon have a new Wal-Mart Supercenter, which is currently under construction and expected to open in Spring 2004. The data and chart for Ogemaw County
clearly shows the benefits and rewards of such efforts.
5.7 Crawford County - Industrial Parks
Crawford County currently includes two industrial parks, described as follows:
• 121 acres in the City of Grayling; M-72 and I-75 (Southeast quadrant)
• 2,000-acres in Grayling Township; 4-mile Rd. & I-75 (Northwest quadrant).
The city park has a selection of existing heavy and light manufacturing tenants, as well
as some business, service and commercial uses. In comparison, the relatively new
Township Park seems to be having difficulty in attracting its first tenant to catalyze further development. While some reports indicate that the land costs in the township park
may be priced too high, there are probably additional market factors influencing the
park’s stalled progress.
FIGURE 10. Grayling Township Industrial Park - Gateway Sign
We recommend that Crawford County, the City of Grayling and Grayling Township
continue working together to develop a sustainable plan for industrial development.
Upon request, Anderson Economic Group will remain available to conduct an in-depth
analysis of the City and Township’s industrial park, and is prepared to provide specific
recommendations on industries and businesses that should be targeted for future tenants.
47
Crawford County - Tourism and Marketing
6.0 Tourism and Marketing
6.1 Introduction
Northern Michigan is appealing for family vacations, and the state’s more urban dwellers value their family vacations to the north as retreats from the faster pace of city life.
Such family vacations span all seasons, involving both summer and winter sports.
Crawford County shares a number of amenities with other counties in the region,
including large state and national forests with various recreational and outdoor sporting
opportunities, as summarized below.
TABLE 19. Summer and Winter Recreation and Sports
Summer Sports
Winter Sports
All-Season Sports
Boating
Golfing
Hiking
Dirt Biking
Bicycling
Canoeing
Kayaking
Swimming
Boat Racing
Foot Races
Cross-Country Skiing
Down-Hill Skiing
Dog Sledding
Snowmobiling
Snowshoeing
Snowboarding
Iceboating
Horseback Riding
Birdwatching
Team Sports
Fishing
Hunting
Camping
The Cities of Grayling, Gaylord, West Branch and Roscommon all benefit from access
to Interstate 75, which connects major cities in southern Michigan with northern communities, the Upper Peninsula and Canada. The City of Grayling also stands to benefit
from I-75, and a number of retailers along State Highway 72 / South James Street are
positioned to capitalize on I-75 traffic at exit #254.
Within this setting, Crawford County and the City of Grayling compete for visitor dollars with surrounding communities, including Traverse City, Gaylord, Houghton Lake
and West Branch, among others. Many visitors visit Crawford County and Grayling to
enjoy the area’s resources, but they usually continue on to other attractions in Traverse
City, Mackinac Island, or the Upper Peninsula.
48
As part of an evaluation of the local economy and retail supply / demand analysis for
the market, it is important to have a better understanding of the role of tourism and the
significance of visitor contributions, as well as resident demographics. Tourists and
visitors result in sales inflow for retailers, traveler accommodations and spin-off benefits for the entire region. In this section of our report, we comment further on the importance of both tourist attractions and amenities for local residents.
As part of our evaluation, we have compiled an inventory of local attractions and
resources in Crawford County, which enhance the quality of life for local residents,
present a positive image to visitors, and help create a community that is a desirable
place to live. Including seasonal events, the list totals 55 and is summarized below.
TABLE 20. Crawford County - Local Attractions and Events
Count
Local Attractions
Count
Local Attractions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Hartwick: Woodshavings Days
Hartwick: Black Iron Days
Wellington: Flat Belt Festival
Wellington: Pumpkin Fest
Wellington: Walk-Thru-History
Wellington: Farm by Lantern Light
Wellington: Super Saturdays
Heritage Days; Historical Society
Downtown Adventure Weekend
Downtown Christmas Walk
Annual Canoe Marathon
AuSable River Festival
Kirtland's Warbler Festival
Pumpkin Fest; Wellington Farm
Winter Fun Days
AuSable River Resort
Upper Manistee River Rec. Area
Lake Margrethe Rec. Area
Houghton, Higgins & 20 other lakes
Headwaters Snowmobiling, Skiing
Snowmobile Trails & Related Rec.
City Skating Rink (outdoor)
Camp AuSable
Huron National Forest
Kirtland's Warbler Jack Pine Areas
Grayling City Park on the Au Sable
Hartwick Pines State Park Rec. Area
Hanson Hills Recreation Area
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Wellington Farm Park; Hiking Trails
Michigan AuSable Valley Railroad
Grayling Country Club (golf)
The Grayling Fish Hatchery (restored)
Steiner's Pioneer Lumbering Museum
Hartwick Pines Logging Museum
Michigan Magazine Museum
Crawford County Historical Museum
Amish Community / Cultural Education
Wellington Farm Park
The Rialto Theatre / Cinema
Art Craft Trails; Gift Shops / Retail
American Legion Bingo & Bowling
Youth Center (outdoor)
Grayling Riverwalk (program underway)
Grayling Area Chamber of Commerce
Grayling Township Park (improved)
Camp Grayling Display at Amer. Legion
Millikin Little League Field
Hansen State Game Refuge
West Towne Ctr. Bumper Cars (closed)
Timber Rapids Mini Golf
Camp Grayling (closed to the public)
Grayling Bicycle Turnpike / Koppa Trail
Grayling County Fair Grounds
Historic Main Street District
The Beal Plantation
Sources: Grayling Area Chamber of Commerce and AEG field observations.
49
Tourism and visitor needs must be met by an adequate supply of traveler accommodations, including hotels, motels, restaurants, gas stations, convenience stores, a Chamber
of Commerce, Visitors Bureau and souvenir shops. Based on our inventory and substantiated by data provided by the local Chamber of Commerce, Crawford County currently offers about 450 hotel rooms in motels / hotels that offer at least 10 units each.
Of the county total, approximately 300 are located within the City of Grayling.
For comparison, the Michigan State University (MSU) Extension reported a total of
649 units in the commercial lodging business for the year 2000, including bed and
breakfast establishments and all motels, including those with fewer than 10 units. A
summary of the more prominent hotels and motels in the City of Grayling is provided in
the table below.
TABLE 21. Crawford County - Significant Hotels and Motels
Count
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Hotel / Motel
Aquarama Motel
Au Sable Hotel
Bromley's Whippoorwill
Cedar Motel
Days Inn
Holiday Inn
Hospitality House
North Country Lodge
Pine Aire Motel
Count
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Hotel / Motel
Pointe North of Grayling
River Country Motor Lodge
Super 7 Inn & suites
Super 8 Motel
Warbler's Way Inn
Western Trails Motel
Whispering Pines Resort
Woodland Motel
Wyandotte Lodge
Source: Grayling Area Chamber of Commerce
Our assessment of the Crawford County and City of Grayling markets indicates that
there is an adequate supply of hotels, motels, gas stations, and both moderate and fastfood restaurants. With assistance from the Chamber of Commerce, we estimate that
hotels and motels in the county achieve a 60 percent annual occupancy rate, which fluctuates between 75 to 80 percent in summer months to as low as 25 percent during winter months. The market’s target occupancy rate should be about 80 percent.
50
6.2 Crawford County - Visitor Contributions
Given that Crawford County is centrally located in northern Michigan’s mainland, it
benefits from the region’s natural resources which provide recreational opportunities
and quality of life. Growth in tourism in Crawford County has benefited from regional
trends. Although tourism spending may decline on a national level during soft economies, the demand for affordable extended-weekend and family vacations can actually
increase.
Based on data provided by the Michigan State University Extension - Tourism
Research Center, Crawford County currently attracts an estimated 887,900 visitors
annually, including seasonal residents. After adjusting for seasonal residents, the figure drops to 480,372 visitors and tourists, which is higher than Roscommon, Ogemaw
and Kalkaska, but about half that of Otsego County (Gaylord - 984,256).
These visitors spent a total of $45.1 million in Crawford County in 2000. About $20.7
million was spent by seasonal residents, and $24.4 million by other visitors, which
includes day-visitors and overnight tourists. As shown below, visitors staying in hotels
or motels spent the most ($11.2 million), followed by campers ($5.9 million), day-visitors ($3.6 million), and those staying with friends or relatives ($3.6 million). This data
is summarized in the table below.
TABLE 22. Crawford County - Comparative Visitor Expenditures - 2000
County - 2000
Grand Traverse
Otsego
Crawford
Roscommon
Ogemaw
Kalkaska
Total Visitor Expenditures by Type of Stay, incl. Seasonal Residents
Hotel
Camp
Friends
Day Seasonal Seasonal Grand
Total
or Motel Ground Relatives Trips Home
Share Total Trip-Nights
($Mil.) ($Mil.)
($Mil.)
($Mil.) ($Mil.)
(%) ($Mil.)
(#)
$154.2
$40.0
$11.2
$7.8
$6.5
$2.6
$6.5
$2.5
$5.9
$4.9
$3.8
$1.2
$19.7
$5.9
$3.6
$6.5
$5.5
$4.2
$38.4
$11.3
$3.6
$2.7
$1.6
$1.3
$15.3
$19.2
$20.7
$55.9
$29.4
$19.3
7%
24%
46%
72%
63%
67%
$234.0
$78.9
$45.1
$77.7
$46.7
$28.6
5,714,100
1,300,800
887,900
1,152,500
641,600
100,100
Visitors / Tourists
w/out
w/out
Seasonal Seasonal
($Mil.)
(#)
$218.7
$59.7
$24.4
$21.8
$17.3
$9.3
5,340,486
984,256
480,372
323,353
237,681
32,550
Source: Michigan State University Extension, 2000 and Anderson Economic Group.
51
In Crawford County, we caution retailers, merchants and entrepreneurs from relying
upon visitors as the sole support of their business. Local businesses, and particularly
downtown merchants, should focus first upon the needs and expectations of the resident
population and local citizens. They will then be positioned to market to visitors, which
generates additional “word-of-mouth” advertising, supplements sales, helps create a
dynamic and active shopping environment, and enhances the community’s overall
image. The creation of a destination that is exciting to visitors also helps to generate
repeat business from local residents—who represent the market’s core customer base.
6.3 Community and Marketing Recommendations
Although visitors should be viewed as supplemental and not the core customer, sales
contributions by visitors and residents alike can be increased by improving the variety,
quantity and quality of attractions, and through aggressive marketing and promotional
efforts. With this in mind, we have conducted an evaluation of existing amenities and
reviewed two community (www.grayling-mi.com) and county (www.crawfordco.org)
web sites.
FIGURE 11. The Au Sable River
52
Aside from revitalization of the downtown, the second most important initiative that the
community should adopt is improved access to the Au Sable River. The restored Grayling Fish Hatchery, Grayling Township Park, Grayling Municipal Park at James Street,
and selected green spaces along the Au Sable (behind Mercy Hospital and the Grayling
Public Schools) can all be connected along an Au Sable Riverwalk, leading to the most
significant destination at the southern terminus of Michigan Avenue.
A park on the property currently occupied by the County Complex would serve as the
southern anchor to both the Riverwalk and the historic Uptown shopping area. The
design of redeveloped property should include pathways and landscaping that (1) deliberately funnel visitors from the Riverwalk to Michigan Avenue, and (2) have a prominent gateway presence facing Michigan Avenue, pulling visitors to the southwest from
James Street and along Michigan Avenue.
The redeveloped property should offer a variety of amenities that include appropriate
signage, an attractive city monument, brick design elements, drinking fountain, public
restrooms that are perceived to be safe, an amphitheater or pavilion, picnic benches,
shady and sunny resting areas, kiosk vendors (hot dogs, beverages), and off-shore fishing benches.
This could be addressed in obvious places: (1) at the existing County Complex and (2)
at the City’s existing Municipal Park along South James Street. The first option is considered essential to the downtown’s future success and ability to re-attract shoppers.
The second option would enhance the city’s overall efforts to create an enjoyable community to live.
To improve the promotion of local attractions, Crawford County and the City of Grayling should also consider a number of additional strategies, several of which would also
have significant and positive impacts on the downtown.
• Administer a county-wide signage program for the City of Grayling, including at
least one billboard along Interstate 75 inviting visitors into the community’s revitalized historic Uptown shopping area, Riverwalk and new pavilion with retail on the
Au Sable.
• Work with Gosling Czubak or qualified design firm to develop and prepare a new
fold-out brochure for the downtown, visually depicting the plans for the DDA District and revitalized downtown.
53
Image Marketing. Another challenge that the community faces is the creation of a
unique community identity that is not historic, overused, culturally narrow, thematic or
generally lacking in excitement. Some ideas that were tested are listed below, but not
necessarily recommended:
Considered, but Dropped Marketing Ideas:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Milltown
Bluegrass Culture
Michigan’s Heartland
Bear’s Archery / Mr. Fred Bear
Rivertowne
Grayling
“too dated - not fresh”
“too culturally narrow”
“too thematic - too phony”
“lacks excitement”
“overused - already taken”
“needs action or excitement”
Meanwhile, it may be possible to work with the historic Bear’s Archery Company logo,
shown below. The Bear Archery offers opportunities to create a community and downtown image that conveys motion, action, historic nostalgia, and is wide open to interpretation across demographic groups.
FIGURE 12. Fred Bear Medallion (left) and Bear Archery Company Logo (right)
54
Finally, the community should work with local advertising vehicles to aggressively promote events, initiatives and achievements within Crawford County and the City of
Graying, and particularly within the DDA District.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
WGRY - WQON
WUPS 9835
Channels 9 & 10
Channels 29 & 8
Channels 7 & 4
Crawford County Avalanche
Star Publications
Herald Times
Radio
Radio
Television
Television
Television
Weekly Newspaper
Weekly Newspaper
Daily Newspaper
55
City of Grayling - Retail Market Study
7.0 Retail Feasibility Study
This chapter of our study provides a more detailed quantitative and qualitative analyses
used to determine the amount of additional retail space that is supportable in downtown
Grayling. The chapter begins with a summary of retail competitive levels for the
region, county and downtown Grayling, and an assessment of competitive events within
the competitive region. This is followed by an import / export analysis and an explanation of the methodology used to conduct the quantitative supply / demand analysis.
The last section of this report provides the summary results for the supply / demand
analysis, followed by conclusions and preliminary recommendations. Following the
design charrette in January 2004, our recommendations can be further qualified by
addressing specific properties in the downtown, including vacant and under-utilized
properties, the existing Crawford County Complex, the Bear Archery Brownfield site,
and key corridors (particularly Michigan, James and Norway).
7.1 The Region - Competing Shopping Destinations
The City of Grayling offers a variety of general merchandise stores like Kmart, Family
Dollar and Dollar General, Ben Franklin, J. Dap Company, Riverland Gear, Cartwright
& Danewell and Hallmark, but these retailers are not favored by the junior shoppers
who typically introduce current fashions into most households. In focus group sessions,
the city’s teens reported that there are very few shops in Grayling that they enjoy shopping. They may occasion Ben Franklin, Grayling Restaurant and the American Legion
Bowling Alley, but do not feel entirely comfortable in the environment and prefer to
avoid smokey environments. Instead, they will drive in groups to Gaylord, West
Branch, Saginaw or Traverse City—mirroring the shopping patterns of their parents.
As shown in the following table, the Midland-Saginaw-Bay City area offers three
regional shopping centers with conventional department stores like Marshall Fields,
Elder Beerman, Younker’s, JCPenney and Sears, and Traverse City offers one mall.
56
TABLE 23. Nearest Regional Shopping Malls
Mall
Name
Mall Anchor or
Division Name
Grand Traverse Mall
JCPenney
Marshall Field's
Target Discount
Gross SF
Year
(000)
Opened
62
100
105
1991
1991
1991
Fashion Square Mall (Saginaw County)
Marshall Field's
175
JCPenney
160
Sears
190
1976
1973
1972
Bay City Mall (Bay County)
Younkers
JCPenney
Sears
75
63
78
1992
1993
1990
Midland Mall (Midland County)
Elder Beerman
JCPenney
Sears
65
65
55
1991
1991
1991
Freestanding JCPenney Stores
Cadillac Spg. Ctr.
Houghton
Grayling (Catalog)
23
35
--
1989
1980
--
The Grand Traverse and Fashion Square Malls in Saginaw offer similar tenant mixes,
including stores that offer popular junior and brand name fashions, like Abercrombie &
Fitch, Aeropostale, the Gap, Charlotte Russe, Limited Too and the Buckle. The tenant
mix in these two centers is displayed in the following table.
57
TABLE 24. Grand Traverse Mall and Fashion Square Mall - Comparative Tenant Mix
Grand Traverse Mall, Traverse City
Abercrombie & Fitch
Aeropostale
American Eagle Outfit.
B. Dalton Booksellers
Bath & Body Works
Buckle
Charlotte Russe
Children's Place, The
Christopher & Banks
Deb
Express
Famous Footwear
Finish Line
Foot Locker
Fashion Square Mall, Saginaw
Fred Meyer Jewel.
fye: For Your Enter.
Gadzooks
GKC Theaters
Gymboree
Kay Jewelers
Kay-Bee Toys
Limited Too
Pacific Sunwear
Payless Kids
Payless Shoe
Pier One Imports
Radio Shack
Structure
Sunglass Hut Int'l.
T J Maxx
Wet Seal
Wilsons Leather
Abercrombie & Fitch
Aeropostale
American Eagle Outfit.
Amy's Hallmark
Bath & Body Works
Buckle
Champs Sports
The Children's Place
Christopher & Banks
Dakota Watch Co.
Deb
The Disney Store
Dunham's Sports
Express
Anchors:
Marshall Field's
JCPenney
Target
Finish Line
Foot Locker
Franklin Covey
Sunglass Hut
Talbots
Fred Meyer Jewelers
fye: For Your Enter.
The Gap
The Golf Shop
Jos. A. Bank
Journeys
J.B. Robinson Jewel.
Kay Jewelers
KB Toys
Lady Foot Locker
Lane Bryant
Limited Too
Osterman Jewelers
Radio Shack
Suncoast Motion Pict.
Victoria's Secret
Waldenbooks
Wet Seal
Wilson's Leather
Anchors:
Marshall Field's
JCPenney
Sears
Italicized tenants offer the most popular juniors and children's fashions and brand names.
With the exception of Kalkaska and Roscommon, other communities within the competitive region have all been impacted by the national storing strategies of these big-box
retailers. As expected, Traverse City and Saginaw both include a relatively large number of big-box retailers, with 6 and 8 units respectively. Including Kohl’s Department
Store, Gaylord includes 4 units compared to 3 in Midland. Houghton includes WalMart, Target and Lowe’s, and Meijer and Home Depot both operate stores in Cadillac.
The following table provides a summary grid of these store locations.
TABLE 25. North Michigan Mainland - Big Box Retail Presence by Market
Grayling Gaylord
Kohl's
JCP
Meijer
Wal-Mart
Sam's Club
Target
Kmart
Home Depot
Lowe's
Costco
Pamida
x
c
x
x
x
x
Traverse
West
City
Kalkaska Branch
u/c
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Mount
Houghton Midland Bay City Saginaw Pleasant Cadillac
x
x
c
x
x
xx
u/c
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Note: The JCPenney store in Cadillac is not a mall anchor; "c" denotes catalog service only, and u/c indicates under construction.
58
Among most recent events, Wal-Mart Supercenter is under construction in West
Branch and is expected to open in Spring 2004 (see photo, below), and Kohl’s is under
construction in Traverse City. The following section of this report addresses the impact
that these competing retail destinations have on current expenditure patterns for Crawford County residents.
FIGURE 13. Wal-Mart Supercenter - West Branch (opens Spring 2004).
The City of Grayling has not yet been impacted by numerous “big-box” retailers, which
typically include discount department stores, supercenters, membership warehouse
clubs and home improvement mega-centers. The community does have a small and
dated Kmart store with about 52,500 gross square feet, which has not fully met the
expectations of local shoppers.
For purposes of our analysis, we must make reasonable assumptions about the future of
big-box retailing within the City of Grayling market. In particular, this study assumes
that either Wal-Mart or Meijer will open by 2007. At this time, it appears that WalMart is the most likely candidate, which is speculated to open at the southeast corner of
Highway 72 / James Street and Huron Street, on a development parcel currently occupied by the Michigan Lumber Company.
FIGURE 14. City of Grayling: Speculated Wal-Mart or Meijer Site
59
The key differences between Meijer and Wal-Mart include the following:
• Wal-Mart offers a craft and hobby department which is typically very successful in
markets similar to Grayling. Meijer offers home decor and furnishings, but very
few craft supplies and no fabric.
• Wal-Mart is traditionally strong in the Tire, Battery and Auto departments, as well
as tools, and other hardline categories. In comparison, Meijer typically offers a
stronger paint and decorating department.
• Meijer has a relatively strong department in ready-to-assemble and moderate-priced
furniture, including office furniture, chairs and dressers, among other items. WalMart’s offering in this category is considerably less.
• It is assumed that Wal-Mart would not be a SuperCenter concept. The store would
include a small “pantry” with brand-name convenience goods like snacks and
canned soups, but would not offer a full line of grocery items. In comparison,
Meijer always offers full-service grocery departments, including green produce,
fresh fish and butcher department, dairy and deli, and bulk goods.
• Because of the grocery merchandise, Meijer stores are typically much larger than a
conventional Wal-Mart store. Wal-Mart would probably open with 100,000 to
120,000 gross square feet, whereas Meijer would be closer to 160,000 gross square
feet in size.
Downtown merchants may realize a temporary sales impact when Wal-Mart or Meijer
opens, but should recover within 6 months if meaningful revitalization is implemented
in downtown Grayling before that new store opens. It is assumed that the new discount
store would be about 95,000 square feet, smaller than Wal-Mart’s typical prototype of
about 119,000 square feet.
It should also be noted that for each amount of space that is developed elsewhere within
the City of Grayling, the space supportable in the downtown will be reduced by that
same amount. This applies in particular to the potential development of a discount store
like Wal-Mart or Meijer along South James Street, which could catalyze the development of additional retail like family or fast food restaurants, gas stations, banks or convenience stores on outparcels. (Meijer almost always opens without attached tenant
space, but Payless Shoes has frequently partnered with Kmart, and it is common for Little Caesar’s Pizza to open with Wal-Mart Stores.)
60
7.2 Grayling Trade Area - Retail Supply
The term “retail” as used in our supply / demand analysis includes a total of 40 categories and a wide range of merchant, service and business uses, such as specialty shops
(apparel, pets, toys, shoes, jewelry, luggage, bicycle shops, etc.), services (salons,
postal, dry cleaners, copy centers, etc.), discount stores, restaurants & fast food, convenience stores, grocery, hardware and variety stores, among others. The categories also
include travel accommodations (hotels and motels), as well as entertainment venues
like cinemas and theaters.
This section of our report provides a summary of significant retail in the City of Grayling. Although the downtown represents the historic city center and includes the traditional Uptown shopping area, most commercial growth has occurred along Business
Loop 75 south of downtown Grayling (perpendicular to Michigan Avenue), and additional commercial development along the State Highway 93 corridor west toward
Kalkaska.
Key retailers along the south commercial corridor include a number of national brand
name chains like Hallmark, Family Dollar, Hometown Furniture, Glen’s Grocery, the
Holiday Inn, Kmart, Sav-A-Lot, Dollar General, Ace Hardware and Rite Aid Drug. In
comparison, the west corridor offers more hardlines (appliances and furniture), including Maytag, Honda Dealership, Jansen’s Heating & Cooling, Sear’s Hardlines, Comfort
Center Furniture and Skip’s Sport Shop, among others.
The following table provides our estimates of total space (square feet) for the 19 summary retail groups throughout the Grayling Effective Trade Area. As shown, the City of
Grayling includes about 176 stores which total 1,077,000 (1.08 million) square feet of
retail space, of which approximately 170,000 square feet (16%) is located in the downtown. About 32% of the space is attributed to Travel Accommodations, including
hotels and motels (but excluding campgrounds), 13 percent is building supply and
home improvement (like DuBois Lumber, Ace Hardware, Sears Hardlines, etc.), and
12% is Foodservice & Drinking Places, including full-service and fast food restaurants
as well as specialty places like Goodale’s Bakery and Spike’s Tavern.
61
TABLE 26. Grayling Effective Trade Area - Retail Inventory
Grayling Effective Trade Area
Retail Inventory - November 2003
No. of
Units
Square
Feet
Share of
Space
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Auto Repair & Maintenance
Personal Care Services (hair, nail, skin)
Drycleaning & Laundry Service
Traveler Accommodations
Foodservice & Drinking Places
Motor Vehicle Parts / Dealers
7
10
2
18
32
10
2
9
15,000
18,000
3,000
342,000
124,000
28,000
23,000
36,000
1%
2%
0%
32%
12%
3%
2%
3%
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Building / Garden Supply 1/
Food and Beverage
Gas Stations
Clothing / Clothing Accessories
Sporting Goods / Hobby / Book / Music
General Merchandise
Miscellaneous *
Other Miscellaneous *
Real Estate
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
11
11
5
11
6
14
4
14
2
4
4
136,000
70,000
31,000
21,000
22,000
40,000
70,500
43,000
23,000
7,000
24,500
13%
6%
3%
2%
2%
4%
7%
4%
2%
1%
2%
176
1,077,000
100%
Total Existing Retail Stores
* Notes: Miscellaneous includes florists, office supply, Gifts, Novelty and Used Mercandise.
Other Miscellaneous includes Pet Stores and Art Dealers.
1/
Excludes the Michigan Lumber and Building Supply, expected to close in 2004.
The appendix attached to this report provides a table of most retailers and businesses in
the City of Grayling’s Effective Trade Area. The list reflects our rigorous field inventory, and any omissions are unintentional. Based on a preliminary review of this data,
several categories appear to have a low share of the total space relative to the mix,
including:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
General merchandise (Kmart, Family Dollar, Ben Franklin and Dollar General)
Furniture (Comfort Center Furniture and Hometown Furniture & Design Center)
Clothing and accessories (Cartwright & Danewell, the Parrot's Perch Boutique, Riverland Gear, J. Dap and Davis Jewelers).
Entertainment and recreation venues (cinema, bowling alley, ski hill and mini golf /
bumper cars).
Office Supplies, as a percent of the Miscellaneous Merchandise category.
Quality Restaurants, as a percent of the total Foodservice and Drinking category
(there are 32 existing foodservice / taverns, but very few “better” restaurants).
Other Miscellaneous Merchandise, which typically include Pet Supplies and Art
Dealers (Fannie Finn’s).
62
Other categories rank low in the share of space because only “effective” space was
measured. Effective space excludes the area where services are taking place - such as
gasoline pump stations and automotive repair shops. Additionally, a number of “entertainment” venues have been excluded because they do not actually generate retail sales.
Examples are the Grayling Fish Hatchery and Crawford County Museum. These and
other market factors were taken into consideration as we completed our supply /
demand analysis.
In general, the Community Stakeholders interviewed during focus group sessions frequently requested “better” clothing stores, general merchandise in the Grayling area
(i.e., better than Ben Franklin and Kmart), better restaurants, and more office supplies
and indoor entertainment / recreational opportunities. We have considered each of
these categories carefully in our demand analysis with an evaluation of regional shopping patterns and local income levels.
7.3 Supply / Demand Analysis - Methodology & Approach
The demand evaluation of our retail analysis involves a comparison of resident income
levels to the region, with the portion of income that is actually spent on each retail category (transacted expenditures), compared to the portion of income that is more typically spent on each retail category (resident expenditure potential).
By calculating the portion of local expenditures being captured by existing and planned
retailers, it can be determined which categories have remaining sales potential. A comparison of these results to supply by retail category helps to identify opportunities for
additional shops, merchants or businesses.
Similar to the decennial population census, the U.S. Census Bureau also conducts a
national retail sales survey every five years (1992, 1997, 2002, etc.) and classifies similar retailers into categories. For purposes of this analysis, we have reviewed 19 summary retail categories to determine the amount of additional space that is supportable
within Crawford County. All of these categories are evaluated in this analysis, but not
all represent supportable tenants for downtown Grayling and its Uptown shopping area.
Transacted retail expenditures for the State of Michigan and individual counties are
published by the U.S. Census Bureau, supplemented with vendor data and projected by
qualified experts at AEG. Retail expenditure potential for downtown Grayling refers to
the total dollar amount that residents are willing and able to spend on each retail category, based on their income relative to the market average.
63
The deductive supply / demand analysis assumes that there will be no over-storing in
any given market. In other words, it is assumed that each new merchant will reasonably
attempt to reach the limit of expenditure potential in each category, but will not go
beyond a threshold level of market saturation.
A market’s saturation level within any given retail category is usually discovered by
trial-and-error, as merchants can learn through experimentation if an increase in space
or merchandise no longer results in an increase in sales. This process can be both discouraging and costly, but can be mitigated with an accurate supply / demand analysis.
This type of opportunity analysis can enable effective retail planning, as existing stores,
or new entrepreneurs can back-fill the retail voids, capturing a possible niche market in
the area, maximizing sales and creating a sustainable shopping environment.
Although income levels are relatively higher in competing counties (Grand Traverse
and Otsego Counties) compared to Crawford County, this does not necessarily mean
that per capita expenditures on retail will be proportionately higher. Up to a certain
threshold, expenditures can be influenced by opportunity and competitive levels. If
local residents have a capacity to spend, but choose not to because of limited retail
selection or quality, they will seek competing destinations, resulting in sales export. If
other options do not exist, they may simply curtail spending. This can indicate a considerable opportunity for additional retail space in the market.
However, once a market reaches its threshold in retail space, the addition of more space
will result in negative sales impacts for existing merchants, and cannot be expected to
motivate additional spending. Rather, the market share for each retail category is then
expected to be redistributed after new stores open, with inevitable negative sales impact
on existing units.
The “build it and they will come” principle applies only when local supply does not yet
meet the market demand. However, resident expenditure potential does increase with
gains in population, households and labor force, and particularly with increases in
income levels. These fundamental rules, when applied in our retail analysis, are used to
quantify the amount of additional space that is supportable in the Grayling Market including within that city’s DDA District.
64
Appendix D-1, which includes three pages of tables, provides a summary of transacted
and potential retail sales for Crawford County, along with transacted retail sales for the
State of Michigan and each county within the competitive region. Based on these data,
retail expenditures throughout the State of Michigan represent an average of $11,695
per capita on the 19 retail categories in 1997 (the most recent census year), representing
56.2 percent of per capita income. In comparison, retail expenditures in Grand
Traverse County reached $20,701 on a per capita basis, representing 100.6 percent of
resident per capita income, and reflecting high import into that market.
A review of the other counties within the competitive region show that expenditures are
also high in Otsego County ($19,057 on a per capita basis, and 104.0 percent of resident
per capita income), Ogemaw County ($12,785 per capita; 87.7% of income) and
Roscommon ($13,038; 79.6%). As expected, expenditures in Kalkaska are considerably less, measuring at $8,635 on a per capita basis, and representing 57.2 percent of
resident per capita income - more similar to the state averages.
Crawford County compares more closely to the state average and to Kalkaska than to
Grand Traverse, Otsego or Ogemaw Counties. Transacted sales reached $8,379 on a
per capita basis in 1997, representing 54 percent of the resident per capita income level.
However, a closer review of the data reveals that expenditures per capita are high in a
few categories like traveler accommodations, food service and drinking places and gas
stations. However, expenditures are relatively low for most other categories.
Existing retailers in Crawford County are projected to achieve retail sales of $184.4
million by 2007, which is very similar to its resident expenditure potential of $184.3
million. However, after adjusting for automotive repair and supply shops, and for traveler accommodations and food service (restaurants), of which there is a prevalence in
the market, there surfaces a clear opportunity within the other categories. Excluding
automotive, hotels and restaurants, Crawford County is projected to achieve $103.1
million in retail sales in 2007, which falls short of its resident expenditure potential of
$137.3 million and indicates an opportunity in the magnitude of $34.2 million.
The evaluation of transacted retail sales by category for Crawford County, compared to
resident expenditure potential, is used as the basis of our supply / demand analysis. The
results are further refined based on an import / export analysis, field observations, focus
group discussions, interviews with Community Stakeholder’s and the applied experience of qualified retail consultants at Anderson Economic Group (AEG). The import /
export analysis is explained in the following section of this report.
65
7.4 Crawford County - Import / Export Analysis
There is limited information documenting the contribution of visitors to retail sales in
Crawford County and downtown Grayling. However, we are able to derive reasonable
estimates based on the visitor data and supported by prior experience in both similar
and dissimilar markets.
For example, we do know that Crawford County attracted an estimated 480,372 visitors
in 2000 (excluding partial-year residents). If it is assumed that the average visitor
(including all age groups) spends about $5 in downtown Grayling only, this would
equate to $2.4 million in retail sales. Further assuming that the downtown stores
achieve an average sale productivity (sales per square foot) of $150, then visitors are
supporting about 16,000 square feet of retail space. This represents about 10 percent of
total retail space in the downtown, which currently includes about 170,000 square feet
of retail space (with nearly 25,000 square feet of vacant space).
Said another way, tourists and visitors are supporting about 10 percent of the total retail
space in downtown Grayling. This is typical for smaller towns like Grayling, although
other destinations like Holland, Mackinac City and Traverse City probably achieve
higher levels.
To further evaluate the contributions of visitors, as well as the role of competing retail
destinations in the market, we have conducted an Import / Export Analysis for each
county in the competitive region. The results of this analysis will indicate the net
import or net export of retail sales that are flowing in and out of each market area.
Retail sales that are lost from a county will be partly offset by visitor sales “inflow” into
that same county.
66
TABLE 27. Import / Export Analysis for Competitive Region
2002 Data - Import / Export Analysis
2002 Population (projection)
2002 Per Capita Income (projection)
1/
Crawford
Grand
Traverse
Otsego
Ogemaw
County
County
County
County
Roscommon Kalkaska
County
County
14,611
$17,724
79,860
$23,204
24,278
$21,063
22,152
$16,724
26,512
$19,158
17,118
$17,126
$148.0
$1,778.0
$499.6
$322.5
$350.1
$221.0
Transacted Sales Per Capita
Share of Per Capita Income
$10,132
57.2%
$22,263
95.9%
$20,579
97.7%
$14,559
87.1%
$13,207
68.9%
$12,911
75.4%
Potential Sales Per Capita
Resident Expenditure Potential ($Mil.)
$14,179
$207.2
$20,884
$1,667.8
$18,957
$460.2
$15,052
$333.4
$16,284
$431.7
$16,270
$278.5
Transacted Retail Sales ($Mil.)
Resident Export ($Mil.)
Export as % of Resident Potential
$70.0
33.8%
$119.8
7.2%
$25.6
5.6%
$80.0
24.0%
$140.0
32.4%
$75.0
26.9%
Visitor Import ($Mil.)
Import as % of Transacted Sales
$10.9
7.3%
$230.0
12.9%
$65.0
13.0%
$69.1
21.4%
$58.4
16.7%
$17.5
7.9%
Net Resident Export ($Mil.)
Net Export as % of Resident Potential
$59.1
28.5%
---
$10.9
3.3%
$81.6
18.9%
$57.5
20.6%
Net Transacted Import ($Mil.)
Net Import as % of Transacted Sales
---
$39.4
7.9%
---
---
---
1/
--$110.2
6.2%
For 19 Summary Retail Categories, including hotel accommodations, convenience stores, and restaurants,
as well as conventional general merchandise, apparel furniture and other variety goods.
As shown in the import / export table above, transacted sales within Crawford County
and for the 19 summary retail categories are estimated to total $148.0 million in 2002,
less than any other county within the competitive region. This represents $10,132 on a
per capita basis, which is low and should be closer to a range of $14,000 - $15,000 per
capita.
The analysis also reveals that residents themselves are exporting about $70 million in
retail sales from Crawford County to competing shopping destinations in Saginaw,
Traverse City and Gaylord. The market is experiencing a net export of $59.1 million,
even after adjusting for the sales contributions of tourists and visitors ($10.9 million).
In comparison, Grand Traverse County (Traverse City) and Otsego County (the City of
Gaylord) both have a net import (versus net export), indicating that they are pulling a
significant amount of retail sales from shoppers who are not resident households.
(Note: The $10.9 million figure excludes visitor expenditures on non-retail categories
like event and entrance fees into the area’s attractions and campgrounds, payments for
non-retail services and recreational vehicles. These categories, combined with all retail
categories, were estimated to reach $24.4 million in 2000 by the Michigan State University Extension.)
67
The net import figure for Crawford County indicates that although local merchants are
pulling visitors off Interstate 75, much of this business is offset by the outflow of dollars by the resident populations. The solution to improving the net import figure is two
fold: merchants should continue targeting and marketing to visitor shoppers, but the
expectations of residents must also be addressed. With an improved downtown, Grayling should be able to realize a lower net export of 20 percent or less.
7.5 Downtown Grayling - Retail Supply
Historically, the City of Grayling’s downtown area developed along Michigan Avenue,
which runs perpendicular to State Highway 72 (also known as James Street) is also
known as the Uptown shopping district. Today, the downtown also includes portions of
Peninsular Avenue, most of Norway Street and North James Street, and also includes
the Bear Archery property.
In downtown Grayling, the retail mix includes some mainstay traditional stores like
Goodale’s Bakery and Ben Franklin, and tourist and gift shops like Au Sable Gifts,
clothiers like J. Dap, services like insurance and optometry, store names like Fannie
Finn’s and Parrot’s Perch to capture the intrigue of visitors, and several significant
vacancies, including Chief Shoppenagon’s Hotel and a large building for sale or lease
by the Keelan Commercial Properties.
The following table provides a summary of the merchants, shops and businesses currently operating in downtown Grayling, followed by a series of photos that depict the
current shopping environment.
68
TABLE 28. Downtown Grayling - Existing Tenants and Merchants
Count Merchant / Business Name
Count Merchant / Business Name
Subcategory
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Parrot's Perch Boutique
Riverland Gear
J. DAP Company Gift Store
Fannie Finn's Portraits & Framing
Avalanch News
Grayling Pharmacy
Pharmacy, The Grayling
Radio Shack
Milltown Title & Escrow Co.
Citizens Bank
Mickey Perez, CPA, PC
AuSable Gifts / Souvenires
Grayling Souvenires
Flowers by Josie / Gifts
Northern Concepts
Parrot's Perch Boutique
Ice House Quilt Shop
Parrot's Perch Craft Shoppe
Gale Enterprises
Apparel
Apparel
Apparel
Art / Frames
Reading Materials
Drug / Pharmacy
Drug / Pharmacy
Electronics
Finance
Finance
Finance
Gifts
Gifts
Gifts
Gifts
Gifts
Hobby
Hobby
Insurance
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Dr. Noss Optometrist
Au Sable Dental
Dharma Music
Copy Shop, The
Northern Litho
Grayling Post Office
Riverland Photo Lab
Grayling Restaurant - Uptown
Ginger's Family Style Shop
Hair Station & Co., The
Goodale's Bakery & Restaur.
Bear's Den Pizzeria
Stevens Deli
House of Jerky, The
Bicycle Shop, The
Sawmill Tavern
Rialto Theatre
Heirloom Antique Mall
Ben Franklin
20
Look Insurance
Insurance
43
Chief Shoppenagon's Hotel
1/
20,000 sf vacant
Keelan Commercial Group
2/
9,600 sf vacant
21
1/
Subcategory
Davis Jewelers & Gems
Jewelry
44
3/
22
Riverland Dry Cleaning
Laundry
45
Attorney Office
23
Burmeister Law Office
Law
46
Harbor House Shirt Shop 3/
Total Downtown Grayling
Medical
Medical
Music
Office Supplies
Office Supplies
Office Supplies
Photo Lab
Restaurant
Salon
Salon
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Sporting Goods
Tavern
Theater
Used Merchandise
Variety
2,000 sf vacant
4,000 sf vacant
170,000
Includes 8,900 square feet on the main level, 6,700 sf basement, and a 1,200 sf lobby.
2/
Includes two connected buildings of 3,200 sf each, plus 3,200 sf of effective space in the basement.
3/
Estimates, not confirmed by broker, owner or listing.
To further assist in the allocation of supportable retail space within the downtown, we
have also defined three districts within the downtown area: (1) Michigan Avenue from
Spruce Street southwest to Norway Street, (2) Norway Street from Michigan Avenue
north to State Highway 93, and (3) North James Street from Michigan Avenue north to
Lake Street / M-93. The following series of photographs displays the existing land uses
along the Michigan Avenue, with the north quadrant shown first and followed by the
east, south and west quadrants.
69
FIGURE 15. Uptown Grayling (North Quadrant) - Fannie Finn’s and the Parrott’s Perch
FIGURE 16. Uptown Grayling (North Quadrant): Fannie Finn’s, Parrott’s Perch, Grayling Restaurant and
Ben Franklin
70
FIGURE 17. Uptown Grayling (North Quadrant): The Grayling Restaurant and Ben Franklin
FIGURE 18. Uptown Grayling (North Quadrant): Northern Concepts and Stevens Deli
FIGURE 19. Uptown Grayling (North Quadrant): Stevens Deli, Davis Jewelers and Bear’s Den Pizzeria
71
FIGURE 20. Uptown Grayling (East Quadrant): Historic Rialto Theater
FIGURE 21. Uptown Grayling: Business Services (bank, post office, etc.) and Retail
72
FIGURE 22. Uptown Grayling (East Quadrant): House of Jerky, Flowers by Josie
FIGURE 23. Uptown Grayling (East Quadrant): Flowers by Josie, Grayling Pharmacy, Hair Station
FIGURE 24. Uptown Grayling (East Quadrant): The Hair Station and The Bicycle Shop
73
FIGURE 25. Uptown Grayling (East Quadrant): Gambler’s Corner (services) and Radio Shack
FIGURE 26. Uptown Grayling (South Quadrant): Riverland Gear and the Parrott’s Perch Craft Shoppe
FIGURE 27. Uptown Grayling (South Quadrant): J. Dap Company (w/JCP Catalogue and Walk-In Medical
Center (service)
74
FIGURE 28. Uptown Grayling (South Quadrant): Antique store and Dharma Music
FIGURE 29. Uptown Grayling (South Quadrant): Sawmill Tavern, Avalanche (service) and Heirloom
Antique Mall
FIGURE 30. Grayling Uptown (West Quadrant): Chief Shoppenagon’s Hotel (vacant)
75
FIGURE 31. Uptown Grayling (West Quadrant): Attorney, Harbor House Shirt Shop and Keelan Property
(vacancies)
Michigan Avenue includes the historic and traditional Uptown shopping area, whereas
Norway and North James Streets include a scattered mix of existing uses and undeveloped parcels. The following table provides a summary of existing uses along Norway
Street.
76
TABLE 29. Norway and James Street Corridors - Retail Facilities
Norway Street - Retail Facilities
Bear Archery Brownfield Property Goodale's Bakery
Chief Shoppenagon's Parking Lot
Milltown Title
Crawford County Historic Museum The Ice House Quilt Shop
Du Bois Lumber
Reliable Supply
Au Sable Gifts
Knights of Columbus
North James Street - Retail Facilities
South of Michigan Ave.
Great Lakes Mortgage Co.
Moshier's Auto & Appliance
Verizon Service Center
Plaza Bar
Cedar Motel
Clark Gas
Discount Mart (vacant)
Shell Gas
Marathon Gas
Ray's Au Sable Fly Factory
Sunoco Gas
Citgo / Amoco Gas
Blockbuser Video
R.C. Pizza
Rochette's IGA & Liquor
Aubry's Barber
Medicine Shoppe, The
Fenton's Auto Service
Verizon Service Center
Northern Expressions Salon
FIGURE 32. Norway Street Corridor (clockwise): County Museum, Ice House, Goodale’s & Milltown Title
77
7.6 Downtown Grayling - Development Sites
In conducting this retail study for downtown Grayling, we focused on the area that
includes the established Downtown Development Authority District (DDA District),
plus some additional parcels in the vicinity. In our market study and downtown assessment, we have identified a total of 18 development sites that have key roles in the community’s future.
The City of Grayling first established its Downtown Development Authority District in
the summer of 2003. This district currently extends about 8 city blocks along State
Highway 72 / James Street, and about 2 city blocks along Michigan Avenue. The district terminates on the northwestern end where M-72 turns west toward Kalkaska, and
on the southeastern end where M-72 turns east toward the city’s industrial park.
Rather than limiting our study to the DDA District boundaries, we have focused our
study on the parcels that seem most crucial to the future success of downtown Grayling.
For a more comprehensive evaluation, we have included a total of six specific properties in our assessment which are not technically part of the DDA District, as summarized below:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
The Bear Archery Site, located at the southwestern corner at the intersection of Norway Street and M-72.
A riverfront parcel located along the Au Sable River, adjacent to and west of the Bear
Archery site.
A strip of right-of-way property located along the northeastern edge of the Bear
Archery property.
The existing County Complex, located just north of the Au Sable River at the southwestern terminus of Michigan Avenue.
The former City Administrative Building, located just south of the Au Sable along
South James Street.
The North Terminus of James Street, currently occupied by a tire supply business,
with a vacant lot.
We have also prepared a map that summarizes a total of 18 parcels, properties and facilities within the Grayling DDA District and surrounding area that require attention and
consideration within the community’s long-term plans. While not all properties are
appropriate for retail development, most will contribute to the community’s objectives
of creating a destination downtown for shopping, working and recreation.
78
TABLE 30. Identified Development Opportunities
A1:
A2:
B:
C:
D:
E:
F:
G:
H:
I:
J:
K:
L:
M:
N:
P:
Q:
R:
The Bear Archery Site (2 vac. facilities / Brownfield)
Right of Way along the Bear Archery Site
County Complex - Courthouse & Jail (existing)
Crawford County Country Club (parcel)
Riverfront Parcel Adjacent to Bear Archery Site
Chief Shoppenagon’s Hotel & Parking Lots (vacant)
Attorney Building & Shirt Shop (vacant)
Keeland Real Estate Property
Reliable Supply (vacant) & Au Sable Gifts (existing)
Knights of Columbus
Du Bois Lumber (existing)
North Terminus of James Street (tire supply / vac. lot)
Roger Moshier Property (appliance storage / vac.)
N. James Discount Mart (vacant; for sale)
Between American Legion & Au Sable River (vac. bldg.)
American Legion & Bowling (needs new facility)
Former City Office Complex (city dispatch and fire)
Chamber of Commerce (existing; needs larger space)
These properties are also shown on the following map (Map 4), and were also discussed
in greater detail during a visioning session conducted by Gosling Czubak Engineering
Sciences in January 2004. Map 4 is followed by a series of photographs displaying
several of the key redevelopment opportunities.
Small Business Incubators. Of importance, three vacant facilities represent opportunities for small business incubator space, including Chief Shoppenagon’s, the Harbor
House Shirt Shop, and the Keeland Commercial Property. These facilities represent
potential enclosed pedestrian malls with tenants space of less than 2,000 square feet
each, positioned with interior entrances along a shared corridor. Such spaces are typically most popular for art galleries and gift shops, but can also accommodate tenants
that appeal more to the local shopper, including drapery and blind shops, rug shops,
jewelry stores, clothing boutiques, etc. Other amenities in this type of revitalized
“creative space” typically includes park benches, drinking fountains, public facilities
and refreshment kiosks.
79
MAP 4.
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80
FIGURE 33. Redevelopment Opportunity: Back and Front of Reliable Supply and Au Sable Gifts
FIGURE 34. Redevelopment Opportunity: The Bear Archery Property
81
FIGURE 35. Redevelopment Opportunity: County Complex
FIGURE 36. Redevelopment Opportunities: Du Bois Lumber
82
FIGURE 37. Redevelopment Opportunities: Moshier Property and Discount Mart on N. James Street
7.7 City of Grayling - Results for 4 Scenarios
This section of our Retail Market Study provides the results of our supply / demand
analysis. For the City of Grayling’s downtown, we have tested four different scenarios
with cumulative improvements, with the following conclusions and recommendations:
Scenario 1: Worst-Case Scenario; No significant downtown revitalization occurs.
The market can support up to 85,000 square feet of retail space through 2010 and
42,000 square feet is supportable in the downtown - although it will more likely end up
along other commercial corridors.
Scenario 2: Downtown Revitalization; Some revitalization efforts are successful, such
as improved parking, and an executed streetscape program or store facade improvements. However, the County Complex remains as-is, and access to the Au Sable River
does not improve at the southern terminus of Michigan Avenue. Under these conditions, the market can support up to 95,000 square feet of retail space through 2010, of
which 52,000 square feet should be located in the downtown.
83
Scenario 3: County Complex Relocation to City Fringe; A majority of revitalization
efforts are successful and the County Complex is relocated, enabling a connection of
the Uptown shopping area and creation of a compelling destination on the Au Sable
River, with connection to the Riverwalk, public access to the river and development of
some new attractions that may include a community pavilion, retail, restaurant and
other amenities. The market’s regional appeal is significantly improved, and can support up to 145,000 square feet of additional retail space through 2010, of which 90,000
square feet should be in the downtown.
Scenario 4: County Complex Retained in the Downtown; Nearly all revitalization,
marketing and related community efforts are successful, and the County Complex is
relocated but retained within the downtown. With synergies created by this civic space,
the market can support up to 165,000 square feet of additional retail space through
2010, of which 110,000 square feet should be in the downtown.
Based on our experience with Kmart and that company’s declining performance in
recent years, it is reasonable to assume that the Grayling store could close after WalMart or Meijer opens. However, if Kmart actually remains in the market after Meijer or
Wal-Mart opens, and even expands to 90,000 gross square feet or more, this would
limit the opportunity for several retail categories elsewhere in the market, particularly
for the downtown. The categories most vulnerable to impact include general merchandise, craft and hobby, apparel, health and beauty aids, variety, and discount store merchandise.
The following table provides a summary of the supportable square feet within Grayling
under each of the four scenarios, and is also included in the attached Appendix D-2 of
this report for easier reading. As shown, the amount of supportable square feet doubles
if the downtown is successfully revitalized, vacant space along Michigan Avenue is
occupied, and attractions are added at the southwestern end of Michigan Avenue. It is
also recommended that the county complex be retained downtown, and that other
efforts are made to create a destination main street that is enjoyable for shopping.
84
TABLE 31. Redevelopment Scenarios for Downtown Grayling
Worst-Case / Status Quo
Revitalize Mich. Avenue
Connect Mich. Ave. to Au Sable Retain Co. Complex downtown
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
2002
2007
2010
2002
2007
2010
2002
2007
2010
2002
2007
2010
Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New Max. New
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
1
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
---
2
3
----
----
----
----
----
----
--1,000
--1,000
--1,000
--1,000
--1,000
--1,000
4
5
Accommodation
---
---
---
---
---
---
-4,000
-4,000
-4,000
-4,000
-4,000
-4,000
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Food and Beverage
Gas Stations
Miscellaneous
Other miscellaneous
-2,000
12,000
10,000
---9,000
4,000
25,000
-1,000
-2,000
14,000
12,000
---11,000
5,000
25,000
-1,000
-2,000
16,000
13,000
---12,000
5,500
30,000
-1,000
-3,000
14,000
10,000
---10,000
6,000
25,000
-1,000
-3,000
17,000
12,000
---12,000
7,000
25,000
-1,000
-3,000
19,000
13,000
---13,000
8,000
30,000
-1,000
-5,000
18,000
13,000
-1,000
-14,000
12,000
35,000
-3,000
-7,000
21,000
15,000
-1,000
-16,000
14,000
35,000
-4,000
-8,000
24,000
15,000
-1,000
-18,000
16,000
40,000
-5,000
-8,000
20,000
13,000
-2,000
-15,000
14,000
35,000
-4,000
-11,000
24,000
15,000
-2,000
-18,000
17,000
35,000
-5,000
-12,000
26,000
15,000
-2,000
-20,000
19,000
40,000
-6,000
18 Real Estate
--
--
--
--
--
--
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
4,000
5,000
5,500
6,000
7,000
8,000
8,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
16,000
18,000
67,000
75,000
85,000
75,000
84,000
95,000
116,000
130,000
145,000
130,000
150,000
165,000
Total Categories ($000)
If the downtown is not successfully revitalized with access to the Au Sable River and
connectivities with the Bear Archery property, then the community will not be offering
a compelling or unique shopping destination that is truly enjoyable to shop. The results
will be little increase in visitor traffic, continued sales export of resident expenditures,
and probable retail fragmentation.
7.8 City of Grayling - Summary Recommendations
The last step of our evaluation involves the practical allocation of supportable square
feet to various locations within the local market place, which we have developed under
the assumptions of Scenario 4, with successful revitalization efforts, retail and land use
synergies, relocated County Complex within the downtown, effective marketing programs, and creation of new attractions at the southwestern end of Michigan Avenue
with connections to the Au Sable River.
85
Of importance, it is assumed that future developments on the Bear Archery, County
Complex properties and along both Norway and North James Streets are designed in a
manner that maximizes connectivities and synergies with Michigan Avenue, and that
minimizes retail fragmentation.
Assuming that either Wal-Mart or Meijer enters the market with a net increase of
+40,000 sq. ft. of discount store space by 2010, this reduces the total space to 125,000
square feet. And if DuBois Lumber also relocates from the downtown with a +15,000
square foot expansion, then the figure is further reduced to 110,000 square feet. The
110,000 square feet of retail space in downtown Grayling should first involve occupying about 25,000 square feet of existing, but vacant retail in the Uptown shopping area,
followed by the development of 85,000 square feet of additional space in new projects
that include synergies to Michigan Avenue.
This space should be entirely concentrated in the downtown area (including on the Bear
Archery and County Complex properties), and not allocated along other commercial
corridors in the City of Grayling. We caution that the development of a new and larger
discount store should not set a precedence of additional retail development along South
James Street / State Highway 72.
86
7.9 Downtown Grayling - Retail Recommendations
The following table provides the detailed recommendations by retail category, with
sample retail tenants that could be targeted and would represent an appropriate mix
while enhancing current merchant efforts in downtown Grayling.
TABLE 32. Downtown Grayling: Best-Case Scenario
Scenario 4: Allocation of Space
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Retain Co. Complex downtown
Best Case Scenario (Sc. 4)
2002
2007
2010
Max. New Max. New Max. New
Space
Space
Space
Sample Shops and Tenants
---
---
……………………………………………
……………………………………………
…………
…………
-1,000
--1,000
--1,000
……………………………………………
……………………………………………
Shoe Repair, Tailor, Seamstress
…………
…………
ancillary
Accommodation
--4,000
--4,000
--4,000
……………………………………………
Limited opportunity; high vacancy rates.
Quality restaurants are under-represented.
…………
ancillary
riverfront
Food and Beverage
Gas Stations
Miscellaneous
Other miscellaneous
--11,000
24,000
15,000
-2,000
-18,000
17,000
35,000
-5,000
0
2,000
--12,000
26,000
15,000
-2,000
-20,000
19,000
40,000
-6,000
……………………………………………
……………………………………………
Drapery/Blinds; Home Décor; Great Northern Furn.
Rental Office Equipment & Appliances
relocation of DuBois Lumber is recommended
……………………………………………
Food Supplement, Ulta 3 Beauty Supply, Body Shop
……………………………………………
Outlet Brand Names, Juniors, Urban, Shoes
Book Store, Sports Memorabilia / Comics / Models
Discount OR JCPenney / Marshall's
Office Supplies are under-represented.
Pets and Pet Supplies are under-represented.
…………
…………
ancillary
Uptown
Uptown
…………
Uptown
…………
Uptown
Uptown
Uptown
Uptown
Uptown
18 Real Estate
--8,000
20,000
13,000
-2,000
-15,000
14,000
35,000
-4,000
0
2,000
2,000
Downtown Real Estate Office
ancillary
0
12,000
0
16,000
18,000
ancillary
ancillary
0
130,000
0
150,000
165,000
Expanded and Relocated Bowling Alley
Expanded and Relocated Rialto Cinema
i
d d
Total Categories
--0
--
Sector
As shown, the supply / demand analysis indicates support for additional retail space
which should include fashion family apparel, a food supplement store, furniture and
home furnishings / decor, a food supplement or beauty supply store (but not just another
salon), a book store, a hobby shop like model trains / sports memorabilia / comics, an
office supply store, and a pet supply store.
87
The initial results of our analyses indicated that the market is saturated in restaurant
space. The vast majority of existing restaurants provide an American Diner or bar / tavern atmosphere. Most restaurants offer conventional American fare designed to meet
the expectations of tavern patrons, hunters and campers. The restaurants often have
smokey environment with liquor as the main attraction.
TABLE 33. Grayling, Michigan - Existing Restaurants and Food Service
Count Food Service Name
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Albie's Pasties Subs & Chicken
Arby's of Grayling
Burger King
Kentucky Fried Chicken
Marathon Arby's
McDonald's
Subway
Taco Bell
Wendy's
Big Boy Restaurant
China West of Grayling
Gobbler's Restaurant
Grayling Restaurant - Uptown
Holiday Inn Restaurant
Northern Café
Pizza Hut; Grayling
Description Count Food Service Name
Description
Fast Food
Fast Food
Fast Food
Fast Food
Fast Food
Fast Food
Fast Food
Fast Food
Fast Food
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Restaurant
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Tavern
Tavern
Tavern
Tavern
Tavern
Tavern
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Spike's Keg 'O Nails
Swamp II, The
Iron Gate Restaurant (vacant)
The Lone Pine Restaurant
BC Pizza - Grayling Branch
Bear's Den Pizzeria - Uptown
Dairy Queen
Goodale's Bakery & Restaurant
Little Caesar's Pizza
Stevens Deli
Wimpy's Ice Cream & Coneys
Patti's Town House
Gray Rock Café
Lovell's Restaurant & Lodging
Plaza Bar
Sawmill Tavern
The Ole Barn Tavern
The supply / demand analysis does not indicate support for additional retail space in the
food service category, but there is a clear lack of quality restaurants. Despite the popular appeal of eateries like Spike’s Tavern and the Grayling Restaurant, focus group
respondents consistently requested a better restaurant. To address this demand, we recommend a new restaurant located on the Au Sable River, with up to 4,000 square feet of
space.
The new restaurant should offer a menu and cuisine that are unique to the local market.
The renovated restaurant should welcome walk-in guests with casual attire (reservations not required), but with a higher level of service that includes white table cloths,
quality settings, full waiter services and wine / import beer list. The ambiance should be
warm for romantic settings, but the illumination not be too dim for families. Appropriate choices may be a steak house or seafood (but not just a “surf & turf”), an Italian “ristorante”, European bistro or similar concept. The quality should be a notch or two
above conventional “surf & turf” and more than just another pizza parlour or chinese
restaurant.
88
7.10 Vision Planning - Guiding Principles
In evaluating and qualifying the results of the supply / demand analysis, we recommend
a number of planning considerations that should be incorporated into the downtown’s
planning vision. These are summarized below, and also in the Executive Summary of
this report as Guiding Principles.
Guiding Principle #1: Merchandise mix should meet the expectations of local residents
first, and visitors second. All new retail tenants should stock their stores with merchandise that appeals to the community’s residents, offering creative resources and shops
that can be explored, and unique merchandise that can be “discovered.” Categories that
are currently under-served include fashion apparel, furniture, pets, office supplies and
hobby, and a small but quality restaurant, among others. Additional gift-shops, souvenir shops and other venues that rely primarily upon tourist expenditures should be minimized.
Guiding Principle #2: First address Michigan Avenue, and add space to ancillary corridors (James and Norway Streets) second. It is essential that at least 25,000 gross square
feet of new retail tenants be located along Michigan Avenue, and that key vacancies
along that historic main street be occupied before additional retail space is developed
along Norway Street, on the Bear Archery Property, or even along North James Street.
This may require accelerating a revitalization program along Michigan Avenue before
construction begins on these other development sites - which is also recommended
before Wal-Mart or Meijer opens. Among the existing Keelan Commercial Property,
vacant Harbor Shirt Shop and Chief Shoppenagon’s facilities, at least one of these
should be converted to an enclosed mall with small business incubator space. This
should occur before the development of additional retail space is approved elsewhere in
the downtown area.
Guiding Principle #3: Strive for retail synergies and connectivity, and avoid fragmentation. If existing retail tenants are relocated from Michigan Avenue to other locations,
and if new retail space is added without first occupying vacancies along Michigan Avenue, this could result in “Retail Fragmentation”. The downtown shops will not feel
connected, and potential “Retail Synergies” will be lost, rather than enabling merchants
to benefit from cross-shopping patterns created by mutual proximity. Customers may
become frustrated or confused by the loss of “Connectivity” within the shopping district. These concepts are not easy to quantify, but are essential to successful retail
development, and may require reevaluation and modification of existing zoning ordinances.
89
Guiding Principle #4: Traditional merchant space within the established Uptown shopping area is for conventional retail tenants, and the over-use of traditional retail space
by services and non-retail businesses can undermine the downtown’s efforts to create a
shopping destination and enjoyable shopping experience. Therefore, the addition of
tax accountants, lawyers, and insurance agencies is not recommended for Michigan
Avenue, as they would not enhance the shopping experience along that historic main
street corridor.
Assuming that merchandise-based retail space is concentrated along Michigan Avenue,
we also see considerable opportunity for service-based businesses within the downtown
which could be added along North James Street, along Norway Street, or in a mixed-use
project on a redeveloped Bear Archery Brownfield Site. The following table provides
some samples of uses that work well in mixed-use projects, including street-front businesses with residential units above in a planned downtown setting, balanced by entertainment venues.
TABLE 34. Non-traditional Retail Space - Examples
Sq. Ft.
Mixed Use / Live-Work / Entertainment
30,000
Residential - 20 Multi-Family Flats / Lofts
2,000
2,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
20,000
Custom Drapery & Blind Shop
Shoe Repair / Seamstress / Tailor / Embroidery
Artist Studios, Design Shops, Architects
Real Estate Agents, Insurance Agents
Computer, Finance, Tax, Bookkeeping Consultants
Physical Therapy, Chiropractice, Optical, Dental
Live-Work Units
12,000
15,000
4,000
4,000
35,000
New Rialto Cinema
New Bowling Alley / Bingo Hall
Riverfront Amphitheater
Riverfront Restaurant - Quality
Entertainment Venues
85,000
Total Mixed Use / Live-Work / Entertainment
90
Guiding Principle #5: Redevelop the county complex property, but keep county functions in the dowtown. Assuming that Michigan Avenue is successfully revitalized and
established as a destination for shopping, we then recommend that the County Complex
be retained in the downtown, serving as a civic space anchor for a new district with
businesses, services and possible entertainment venues. Alternative locations will be
addressed during the January 2004 design charrette.
Guiding Principle #6: Develop selected properties to their highest and best use, without short-cuts. Based on our experience in site selection and locational analysis, the
DuBois Lumber, Bear Archery and Knights of Columbus sites hold high development
potential, and can become successful mixed-use projects if completed by qualified
developers. Their full potential exceeds the capacity provided by the existing structures, and they should not be retro-fitted to save on development costs.
Guiding Principle #7: In addition to retail, also add some multi-family owner or renteroccupied homes in the downtown area. In particular, the DuBois Lumber, Bear Archery
and Moshier properties could be re-developed not only with street front retail or services, but also with multi-family attached, renter or owner-occupied housing units
which may include rowhouses or market-rate condos, but would be best suited in the
downtown setting as lofts, stacked-flats, or live-work units. Undeveloped properties
which are proximate to the downtown represent potential live-work units, which are
appealing to artists like photographers, seamstresses or architects.
Guiding Principle #8: Create a pedestrian-friendly environment under New Urbanism
design principles. The success of new projects depend on high-quality projects that help
create an enjoyable, entertaining and pedestrian-friendly shopping environment. New
project designs for the County Complex property, Bear Archery property and along
Norway Street should encourage social interaction and other activities that extend into
the evening hours. The projects should incorporate New Urbanism design principles
with a focus on creating a downtown environment and community that is “hip and
cool.”
Involved commercial property owners and/or developers should work together and
communicate ideas to create cohesive and well-planned projects that promote traffic
flow, alignments and other synergies. The projects should uphold design principles that
create a pedestrian-friendly environment, creating a sense of community and place and
not just additional retail space. With no exceptions, a traditional street grid pattern
should be incorporated, with all streets leading someplace else and thereby improving
traffic flow. A block-grid pattern should always take precedence over cul-de-sacs or
access roads that terminate within project sites.
91
Guiding Principle #9: Operate stores with good business and management practices.
All merchants and tenants should operate in a manner consistent with successful retailing, remaining open during hours that are convenient for potential customers, maintaining clean facilities and storefronts, applying appropriate visual merchandising, rotating
seasonal and sale merchandise and taking appropriate measures to communicate a safe
shopping environment.
Visual Merchandising is essential in creating a pedestrian shopping environment that
feels inviting to shoppers. Store signage and facades should be attractive and may carry
a common theme. Proper illumination conveys safety as well as a friendly shop, and
the provision of seating and access to store restrooms is essential. Merchant workshops
are available which can provide useful information on these subjects, and can provide
ideas for new marketing tools like word-of-mouth advertising, customer e-mail lists,
cross-promotions, coupons, sales / promotions and seasonal events.
Guiding Principle #10: Pursue existing businesses and entrepreneurs for relocation to
the downtown. Independent entrepreneurs often compromise on location to operate in
facilities with lower rents and reduced overhead expenses. The result is that some businesses are unable to grow because of those same locational choices, and are unable to
realize their full potential.
While some local businesses may be “border-line” successful in their existing locations,
they can become valued merchants within a more vibrant downtown setting and should
not be overlooked. Small business loans provided by local lenders can often provide
the incentive to relocate these “Independents” into the city center. In Grayling, we have
identified a number of existing retailers that may be good tenants for downtown Grayling, and could contribute to a cohesive shopping and business environment. These are
summarized in the following table, on the following and last pages of this report.
92
TABLE 35. City of Grayling - Potential Relocations to a Revitalized Downtown
Potential Relocations
Relocate to Michigan Avenue
1
Custom Creations Craft
1
Riverside Barber Shop
1
Essence Beauty Salon
1
Flo's Hallmark; Glens Plaza
1
AuSable Gifts / Souvenires
1
Heads Up North Salon
1
Wimpy's Ice Cream & Coneys
1
Albie's Subs
1
Sylvester's Embroidery
9
Potential Tenants for Michigan Ave.
Relocate Proximate to Downtown Area
1
DXR Computer Service / Nextel
1
Grayling Chiropractice
1
H&R Block
1
State of MI Family Independence Ctr.
1
Grayling Physical Therapy
1
Crawford County Housing Commission
1
State Farm Insurance
1
Toupin Chiropractice
1
Carquest Auto parts
1
Arrow Uniform Rental
1
Dipzinski & Siwula Accounting
1
Du Bois Lumber (relo. to S. James St.)
1
M/T Kitchens Catering / Palmer Enterprises
13
Potential Locational Improvements
Category
Hobby
Salon
Salon
Gifts
Gifts
Salon
Specialty Food
Specialty Food
Craft / Apparel
Category
Electronics
Service
Service
Service
Service
Service
Service
Service
Auto Supply
Service
Service
Bldg. Supply
Catering
- END OF REPORT AND DOCUMENT -
93

Downtown Market Study

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